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The Asian financial crisis broke out in Thailand in July 1997, and rapidly spread throughout the neighboring countries. An important question then arises? Is it possible to predict next financial crisis? If yes, then what are the predictors? The answer lies in combined usage of economic theory and econometric methods. By using the economic theory, one can locate possible potential crisis predictors whereas appropriate econometric models can pinpoint effective ones. In this paper we suggest using the Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS) developed by George and McCulloch (1993) to identify the crisis predictors. As is suggested by the name, SSVS stochastically searches for practically significant variables. Each variable coefficient is assumed to come from a mixture of two normal variates with respectively large and small variances. For the former case, this variable is considered as insignificant and should be excluded from the model whereas for the latter, this variable is significant and should be included in the model. SSVS is not affected by the ordering of the candidate variables and is particularly effective when the sample size is much smaller than the number of all possible models. By employing SSVS method, we conclude that annual growth rate of money supply, $M_2$, and the ratio of government debt to GDP are promising predictors for financial crisis. It is worth mentioning that the frequently mentioned factors, such as ratio of total foreign reserve to GDP and the ratio of current deficit to GDP are not selected by our analysis. Our empirical analysis implies that monetary and fiscal policy play a crucial role in exploring the Asian financial crisis.

Abstract
This paper analyses the main features and determinants of labour market reforms in the EU over the period of 2000–2011 using the European Commission LABREF database. The data suggests that the timing, focus, and geographical distribution of reforms reflect the interplay between economic shocks and existing institutions. The 2008 crisis was followed by increased policy activity in most policy domains in a large number of EU countries, initially to cushion the impact of the crisis on employment and incomes, subsequently to improve the adjustment capacity of labour markets. Regression analysis indicates that reform activism is stronger in countries with lower GDP per capita and long-standing EU membership, under critical economic and labour market conditions, and where political costs are low. The direction of reforms is affected by economic and labour market conditions, available fiscal space, and by initial policy settings.

JEL classification: J20, J38, J48, J58, J68

The credit crisis that began in the summer of 2007 has fundamentally challenged much financial regulation and the political institutions that produced it. Measured against the criticisms that have been brought forth against previous financial governance, the extent of governments' overall reform ambitions has been disappointing, generating little hope that the threat of future crises is being tackled seriously. Starting from this observation, this article asks: what explains governments' reform choices, and thus also their limited ambitions? To explore this question, this article focuses on the positions that four governments central to global financial regulation (the USA, the UK, Germany and France) have taken in advance of the G20 meetings in 2009 across four key issue areas in financial regulation: accounting standards, derivatives trading, credit ratings agencies and banking rules. It evaluates both the overlap between positions across domains and governments as well as the differences between them. Such variation, we argue, provides key clues to the overall drivers behind reforms – as well as their limits. The overall picture that emerges can be summarized as follows: governments have been staunch defenders of their national firms' competitive interests in regulatory reforms. That has not necessarily meant that they followed industry preferences across the board – new rules that might dent profits were imposed in several cases. It has been the relative impact, compared to foreign competitors, that counted in reform positions, not the absolute impact. As this article also shows, these differences of opinion have played out within the context and the limits of the overall debates about thinkable policy alternatives. In spite of fundamental criticisms of pre-crisis regulatory orthodoxy, convincing and coherent alternatives have been forthcoming slowly at best. This has made reform proposals less radical than criticisms, seen on their own, might suggest.

Предмет. Исследование посвящено проблемам разработки пороговых значений бюджетных индикаторов, способствующих достижению долгосрочной фискальной устойчивости и реализации приоритетов социально-экономического развития. Цели. Выявить целесообразность и возможность учета мировой практики при разработке пороговых значений бюджетных индикаторов для России. Предложить экспертные оценки пороговых значений бюджетных индикаторов для использования в российской практике бюджетного планирования. Методология. При обосновании конкретных выводов и рекомендаций учитывались научные исследования отечественных и зарубежных ученых в области обеспечения долгосрочной бюджетной устойчивости и экономической безопасности государства. Основой исследования является системный подход, позволяющий получить решение сложной проблемы достижения долгосрочной устойчивости бюджетной системы на базе комплексного рассмотрения и взаимной увязки различных ее аспектов: сбалансированности государственных доходов и расходов, реализации приоритетов социально-экономического развития, стабильности налоговой нагрузки и др. При этом использовались методы экономического анализа, экспертного оценивания, балансовые методы. Результаты. Рассмотрены понятия устойчивости и качества в долгосрочном бюджетном планировании. Определен порядок разработки пороговых значений бюджетных индикаторов, обеспечивающих достижение фискальной устойчивости в долгосрочном периоде. Проведен сравнительный анализ бюджетных параметров России и развитых зарубежных стран. Обоснованы пороговые значения индикаторов, характеризующих роль государства в перераспределении финансовых ресурсов в современной экономике, а также структуру распределения государственных ресурсов по функциональным направлениям их расходования. Область применения. Разработка бюджетной политики. Выводы. Сделан вывод о правомерности и целесообразности использования социально-экономических показателей развитых стран при разработке пороговых значений бюджетных индикаторов для России, а также о необходимости перехода РФ на экономическую модель развитых стран, характеризующуюся высокой долей в валовом внутреннем продукте как общего размера финансовых ресурсов, перераспределяемых бюджетной системой, так и затрат на социальную защиту, здравоохранение и образование. ; Importance The paper considers the development of threshold values of budget indicators conducive to achieving the long-term fiscal sustainability and implementation of socio-economic priorities. Objectives The paper aims to identify the desirability and feasibility of accounting the global practices when developing the budget threshold indicators for Russia and suggest expert estimates of budget threshold indicators for use in the Russian practice of budget planning. Methods For the study, we used a systems approach that enabled us to get a solution to the problem of achieving the long-term sustainability of the budget system. As well we used methods of economic analysis, expert estimation, and balance methods. Results We determined the development of budget threshold indicators to achieve the fiscal sustainability over the long term. We analyzed the budget parameters in developed foreign countries and Russia and justified the threshold values of indicators that characterize the role of the State in the redistribution of financial resources in the modern economy. Conclusions and Relevance We conclude on the legality and appropriateness of the socio-economic performance of developed countries in formulating budget threshold indicators for Russia, as well as the need for the transition of the Russian Federation to the economic model of developed countries, characterized by high proportions of gross domestic product as the overall size of the financial resources reallocated by the budget system and the cost of social protection, health and education. The results can be useful to develop the fiscal policy.