A Model of Choice for Public Policy
In: Journal of public administration research and theory, Band 15, Heft 3, S. 325-351
ISSN: 1477-9803
Punctuated equilibrium is supposed to be a viable alternative to incrementalism, &, indeed, the authors of the model have sometimes made such claims. But punctuated equilibrium was developed to explain change in policy subsystems & does not serve as a complete model of policy choice in the same way that incrementalism has served. This article develops a full-blown & viable model of choice for public policy based on disproportionate information processing. Its dynamics are based in the allocation of political attention to policy topics & the manner in which political systems process information. The model leads directly to outcomes that are consistent with punctuated equilibrium & are not generally consistent with incrementalism. Incrementalism, however, may be deduced from the model as a special case. The model is best tested using stochastic process approaches. Incrementalism logically must yield a normal distribution of outcomes, but disproportionate information processing yields leptokurtic outcomes. Adding institutional constraints only makes the stochastic process implications more severe. To support our arguments, we present both static & dynamic simulations of these processes. We also show that these simulations are consistent with observations of U.S. government budgets. 1 Table, 8 Figures, 36 References. Adapted from the source document.