Suchergebnisse

here we will study consumer durable goods, i.e. those that are primarily of interest to households, such as dwellings, housing equipment, cars, etc., whereas durable goods, which are of interest to businesses, are considered in the next chapter. The durable goods are opposed to fungible goods in the sense that they are not destroyed by their first use, their wear and tear is slow and gradual: a durable good is therefore characterised primarily by its lifespan, linked to its use but also to technical progress, to the way or to circumstances of the household's life, such as change of residence, which may lead to the 'economic death' of the property even though it would be in a state of further services.We will first look at the models used for analysis and forecasting and then see results and examples of applications. ; Nous étudierons ici les biens durables de consommation, c'est a dire ceux qui intéressent essentiellement les ménages, tels que logements, appareils d'équipement de logement, automobiles, etc . alors que les biens durables d'investissement, qui intéressent les entreprises, serontexaminés dans le prochain chapitre.Les biens durables s'opposent aux biens fongibles dans ce sens qu'ils ne sont pas détruits par le premier usage que l'on en fait, leur usure est lente et progressive: un bien durable est donc caractérisé enpremier lieu par sa durée de vie, liée certes a son utilisation mais aussi au progrès technique, a la mode ou a des circonstances de la vie du ménage comme le changement de résidence, qui peuvent entraîner la "mort économique" du bien alors même qu'il serait en état de rendreencore des services.Nous allons étudier d'abord les modèles utilisés pour l'analyse et la prévision, puis nous verrons des résultats et des exemples d'applications.

Summary in English.

Forecasting and politics. The Politician's Opinion. The position of politicians varies as regards the forecasting process according to administrative structures and political traditions. On the basis of his experience as administrator and politician in Denmark, the author believes that a study of the relations between forecasting and planning makes it possible to throw some light on the specificity of political issues. Forecasting is defined as study and evaluation of future developments in a given field. Planning is a comparison between various options of development and the choice of an optimum. The typical function of the politician is to decide on the avenues to be explored and the option to be chosen. Yet it is quite debatable where to draw a line between targets and means. The politician's role is not limited to the choice of the first while leaving it to the administrator to look after the second. Finally, the politician's attitude is ambivalent : it is not possible to rely completely on forecasting and planning for solving problems, but it is necessary to strive for an as transparent as possible presentation of public debate.