Suchergebnisse

The article presents the concept of strategic planning adapted to the realities of social assistance and attempts to prove that this concept significantly affects the demand for research on local social problems that is carried out in local social assistance institutions. This increasingly significant activity, mainly concerning diagnosing and forecasting, influences both the identification of new tasks of social welfare and, consequently, new elements of its organizational structures, which were called local laboratories for research on social policy in the title of the article, and the need to delegate these tasks to specialists in social policy.

The author presents a new European security environment after the cold war, including not only the challenges and threats to international security, but also the essentia conditions and problems of the evolution of European security at the beginning of XXI century. He shows the d ynamic and constant changes taking place within the international environment and those related to the progress of civilization. Moreover, he stresses that the current policy and security measures are not capable of effective action against having to appear before the new challenges and threats. Then, there is taken the problem of unity and identity in the transatlantic relationship. According to the author, in complicating sphere of international conditions increases the role of effectiveness of multilateral institutions of international cooperation. Due to the increasing importance of interdependence and internationalization, European security challenges are European-wide problem, and even transatlantic. Addressing them requires the preservation of unity, and this will be possible by strengthening the common identity based on shared values and common interests ; Autor przedstawia nowe środowisko bezpieczeństwa europejskiego po zimnej wojnie, w tym nie tylko wyzwania i zagrożenia dla międzynarodowego bezpieczeństwa lecz też zasadnicze warunki i problemy europejskiego bezpieczeństwa na początki XXI wieku. Pokazana tu została dynamika i ciągłość zmian zachodzących w międzynarodowym środowisku związanych z postępem technicznym. Ponadto podkreślony zostaje fakt, że środki, jakimi dysponuje współczesna polityka bezpieczeństwa nie są zdolne do skutecznego przeciwdziałania i zapobiegania nowym wyzwaniom i zagrożeniom

The article explains the mechanisms leading to achieving the Russian Federation's dominance in the regional and global security environment. To solve the research problems, a systemic approach was applied and methods of literary analysis and critique, non-participant observation, and uncategorized interviews were used. In the research process, it was established that the dominance of the Russian Federation in the international arena is based on force. The key factors enabling its achievement are displayed by the quantitative and qualitative superiority of the armed forces, expressed by force correlation coefficients, strategic forecasting, and operational prediction as well as the modern forms and methods of using armed forces. The Russian Federation balances the existing international disparities with the use of adaptive strategy, blackmail of conflict escalation with the use of nuclear weapons, modern and technologically advanced operational capabilities, and offensive asymmetric activities.

The objective of scientific forecasting is to present the most probable course of an analyzed phenomenon, taking into account the direction and dynamics of its development. In the course of making forecasts one endeavors to determine the conditions providing for the evolution of this phenomenon. Twenty-something years of an independent Ukraine is decidedly too short a period to facilitate responsible hypothesizing on the development of internal and external situation of this country, but some suppositions are justified. On account of the limitations of this paper the author analyzes only selected events from the recent history of Ukraine. The analysis does not answer the question of whether the recurring crises in Ukraine result primarily from phenomena that cyclically occur in a democracy (i.e. elections), and are simply inherent in it or not. Alternatively, when the chronic nature of a crisis (not: crises) is assumed, it may be concluded that as Ukraine emerges 'unscathed' from each stage of the crisis it evolves towards a new, more advanced phase, in consistence with Kondratiev's theories of economic and political cycles. ; The objective of scientific forecasting is to present the most probable course of an analyzed phenomenon, taking into account the direction and dynamics of its development. In the course of making forecasts one endeavors to determine the conditions providing for the evolution of this phenomenon. Twenty-something years of an independent Ukraine is decidedly too short a period to facilitate responsible hypothesizing on the development of internal and external situation of this country, but some suppositions are justified. On account of the limitations of this paper the author analyzes only selected events from the recent history of Ukraine. The analysis does not answer the question of whether the recurring crises in Ukraine result primarily from phenomena that cyclically occur in a democracy (i.e. elections), and are simply inherent in it or not. Alternatively, when the chronic nature of a crisis (not: crises) is assumed, it may be concluded that as Ukraine emerges 'unscathed' from each stage of the crisis it evolves towards a new, more advanced phase, in consistence with Kondratiev's theories of economic and political cycles.

This article presents the history and the development of tthe Spanish "Indignant" movement in the long term, i.e. from the occupation of Puerta del Sol to this day. The paper discusses social functions carried out by collectives constituting the above-mentioned movement. The main focus is put on the analysis of civic groups' influence on solving problems connected with the crisis of the Spanish state and on the political and legal system of this country. The condition of Spanish state institutions (being an the example of contemporary European democratic system) is considered from the perspective of the legitimization of its resolutions and citizens' participation in making key decisions. The analysis aims at describing the place of the "Indignados" in Spanishpolitical life and forecasting the directions of the movement's development. The model of eliberative democracy by Jürgen Habermas is used in the course of the work. The selection of information and the analysis of the Indignants' actions are based on media reports and participant observations made by the author who during the last three years has participated in the actions of the movement in Sevilla, Alicante and Saragossa.

The aim of the publication is to present selected forecasting problems in social sciences. The article focused on the method of decision-making/simulation games that, especially with the development of game theory and computers, have increasingly been used in many fields. Using examples of decision/simulation games - Poznań International Model United Nations 2013/POZiMUN; S.E.N.S.E - and the online game EVE Online, the author recognised the importance of such exercises in an accurate prediction of the future. He drew special attention to the element of chance and confounding factors that may destabilise the process of prediction. He also raised the problem of decision-making in the context of classical and quantum logic. ; Treścią publikacji jest przedstawienie wybranych problemów prognozowania w naukach społecznych. W artykule skoncentrowano się na metodzie gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych, które – zwłaszcza wraz z rozwojem teorii gier oraz komputerów – są coraz częściej wykorzystywane w wielu dziedzinach. Na wybranych przykładach gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych – Poznań International Model United Nations 2013/POZiMUN; S.E.N.S.E. a także gry sieciowej EVE Online – wskazano jak ważne są takie ćwiczenia, by móc precyzyjniej przewidywać przyszłość. Zwrócono także szczególną uwagę na kwestię przypadku oraz czynników zakłócających, które mogą destabilizować proces przewidywania. Poruszono ponadto problem podejmowania decyzji w aspekcie klasycznej oraz kwantowej logiki.

Kryzysy energetyczne, a w szczególności kryzysy gazowe spowodowane konfliktem rosyjsko- ukraińskim wywarły istotny wpływ na politykę bezpieczeństwa energetycznego UE. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest analiza wpływu rosyjsko-ukraińskich kryzysów gazowych na rozwój polityki energetycznej UE, a w szczególności otoczenia regulacyjnego. Poczucie zagrożenia przyczynia się do zwiększenia solidarności wśród państw unijnych oraz zwiększa zdolności budowy koalicji politycznych. Wraz ze wzrostem agresywnej polityki energetycznej Federacji Rosyjskiej, która oparta jest o założenia szkoły realizmu, instytucje unijne wykorzystują instrumentarium oparte o założenia szkoły liberalizmu. W artykule została zastosowana metoda krytycznej analizy politologicznej oraz metoda analizy czynnikowej. Autor wykorzystał założenia teorii realizmu oraz liberalizmu. Wnioski przedstawione w artykule oparte są o technikę prognozowania. ; Energy crises, in particular the gas crises caused by the Russian Ukrainian conflict, have had a significant impact on EU energy security. The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the Russian- Ukrainian gas crisis on the development of EU energy policy, in particular its regulatory environment. Insecurity contributes to increased solidarity among EU states, resulting in their greater willingness to create political coalitions. With the growth of the aggressive energy policy of the Russian Federation, which is based on the school of realism, EU institutions respond with instruments taken from the school of liberalism. The paper is a critical analysis in terms of political science and factor analysis. The author uses the assumptions of both the theory of realism and that of liberalism. The conclusions presented in the article are based on a forecasting technique.