Suchergebnisse

Rast turističke potražnje diljem svijeta dovela je do porasta broja metoda za prognoziranje turističke potražnje. Nove su tehnike polučile pouzdane prognoze turističkih dolazaka s ciljem boljeg ekonomskog planiranja. Ovo istraživanje ima za cilj prognozirati i usporediti djelotvornost dvaju nelinearnih pristupa umjetne inteligencije u predviđanju broja turističkih dolazaka u Singapur. Mjesečni podaci o dolasku turista u Singapur korišteni su za prognoziranje mjesec, dva, četiri i šest mjeseci unaprijed pomoću nelinearnih autoregresivnih (NAR) neuronskih mreža i neuro-fuzzy (neizrazitih) sustava. Točnost predviđanja neuronskih mreža NAR uspoređivala se s onom neuro-fuzzy sustava pomoću različitih mjerenja učinkovitosti. Studija je pokazala da su neuro-fuzzy sustavi učinkovitiji od mreže NAR u svim razdobljima prognoze i kod svih zemalja. Predložena neuro-fuzzy metoda poboljšava učinkovitost prognoziranja tehnika temeljenih na umjetnoj inteligenciji. Ova studija predstavlja doprinos literaturi u području turizma i mogu je koristiti menadžeri za učinkovito planiranje i provođenje mjera u okviru turističke politike. ; The ever increasing demand of the tourism sector worldwide has led to an increase in tourism demand forecasting methodologies. New techniques yield much reliable predictions of tourist arrivals for better economic planning. The study aims to forecast and compare the performance of two non-linear artificial intelligence approaches in predicting the number of tourist arrivals to Singapore. The Singapore inbound monthly tourism data were utilized to generate one, two, four and six month ahead forecasts with non-linear autoregressive (NAR) neural networks and neuro-fuzzy systems. The predictive accuracy of NAR neural networks and neuro-fuzzy systems were compared with various performance metrics. The study revealed that neuro-fuzzy systems outperformed NAR networks in all forecasting horizons and for all countries. The proposed neuro-fuzzy methodology helps in improving the forecasting performance of artificial intelligence based techniques. The study contributes to hospitality literature and could be utilized by managers to effectively plan and implement tourism related policy measures.

Did the social changes of 1989/90, both on the territory of the former Yugoslavia & the entire Eastern Europe, surprise political analysts? Or did the research in social sciences, particularly political science, sociology, & psychology, perhaps supply enough material pointing to the possible changes as well as to the course they were going to take? In this work, the author gives a critical review of his studies conducted & published between 1980 & 1990 &, by hindsight, shows their relevance for understanding the recent radical & dramatic changes. Inevitably, the conclusion is that the author's research had pointed to the existence of all psychological conditions necessary for the events that followed. The long crisis, first economic & later political, gave rise to social unrest, which soon turned into general agitation. The powerful presence of the authoritarian structure of personality in these territories, the enduring xenophobia that, in combination with the appropriate ideological manipulation, easily leads to open inter-ethnic conflicts, the lack of both an adequate political culture & the democratic mechanisms of overcoming conflicts, within the context of decrepitude of an ideological project in a multiethnic community rife with historical conflicts, inevitably led into open conflicts. 5 Tables, 2 Figures, 15 References. Adapted from the source document.

Theodor Lowi 1969 marked the end of a "Big Government" era in American politics & theory. In 2001, he announced the end of fundamentalist laissez-faire approaches in recent politics & theory, especially in the field of globalization & the world corporate system. He argues that political science with political economy provides a better understanding of these processes & phenomena than economics without political economy. Here, Strpic accepts "Lowi's challenge" & formulates with him an "agenda for a new global politics" & an "agenda for a new global political economy." He refers to a few recent articles & a book of his own, where he already has done it, & also reminds us of his immediate & accurate politico-economic forecasting of the actual change in American politics after the terrorist attack on the US, & the absence of a great economic crisis, which leading American economists realized only a few weeks later. 26 References. Adapted from the source document.

Dužnički financijski instrumenti su specifične zbog komponente dospijeća koju sadržavaju te stoga konvencionalni pristupi u procjeni njihovih volatilnost mogu biti neprimjereni. Rad je usmjeren na modeliranje i prognoziranje volatilnosti cijene dužničkih vrijednosnih papira uzimajući u obzir komponentu njihovog dospijeća. U radu se uzima u obzir ovisnost volatilnosti dužničkog vrijednosnog papira o njegovom dospijeću i predlaže jednostavna i primjenjiva tehnike procjene volatilnosti uz željeni interval pouzdanosti. Korištenjem predloženog pristupa u radu su provedene procjene volatilnosti dužničkih vrijednosnih papira denominiranih eurima kao i u kunama koje je izdala Republika Hrvatska. ; Debt-based financial instruments are specific due to the maturity component and conventional approaches in estimating their volatility may not be applicable. This paper focuses on modeling and forecasting price volatility of sovereign debt instruments while taking into account their maturity. In doing so we propose a simple and useful technique for obtaining the desired confidence of volatility estimates. The proposed approach provides price volatility estimates for debt instruments issued by Croatian government denominated in HRK and in EUR.

Hrvatska narodna banka ne temelji monetarnu politiku na ciljanju inflacije te devizni tečaj služi kao intermedijarni cilj i temelj vođenja monetarne politike u Republici Hrvatskoj. Inflacija u Republici Hrvatskoj dominantno je određena stopama inflacije u inozemstvu. Na uzorku mjesečnih podataka o indeksu potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj od siječnja 1997. do studenog 2015., prilagođen je ARIMA (0,1,1) x (0,1,1)12 model koji opisuje dinamiku kretanja indeksa potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj. Procijenjeni model se može koristiti za pouzdano prognoziranje kretanja potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj. Nadalje, kako bi se istražile karakteristike promjenjivosti indeksa potrošačkih cijena testirano je nekoliko ARCH modela. Provedeni testovi su pokazali da ARCH (1) model najbolje objašnjava promjenjivost indeksa potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj. ; Croatian National Bank is not targeting inflation but exchange rate as the nominal anchor or intermediary goal of monetary policy and inflation in Croatia is a dominantly foreign driven phenomenon. Using monthly data on CPI in Croatia from January 1997 up to November 2015, ARIMA (0,1,1) x (0,1,1)12 model is fitted as the one describing CPI behavior pattern and therefore reliable for CPI forecasting. Furthermore, to establish its volatility pattern several ARCH family models are tested and ARCH (1) model is found to be the best fitted one in explaining CPI volatility development in Croatia.

Cilj ove studije je prevladati nedostatak empirijskih istraživanja koja se bave glavnim čimbenicima valutnih kriza u Republici Srbiji, analizirajući razdoblja valutne krize i kreirajući sustav ranog upozoravanja kako bi se predvidjele nadolazeće valutne krize. Ovaj rad istražuje odrednice epizoda valutne krize u razdoblju od siječnja 2007. do svibnja 2018.godine koristeći ekonometrijsku analizu i na temelju toga daje prijedloge kreatorima ekonomske politike. Pokazalo se da su dominantni čimbenici oni koji su uglavnom povezani s utjecajem čimbenika iz vanjskog okruženja, što je važno u procjeni i predviđanju potencijalnih kriza u Republici Srbiji. Konkretnije, dobiveni rezultati ukazuju na to da su precijenjenost nacionalne valute, saldo tekućeg računa kao postotak BDP-a, uvoz i burzovni indeks statistički značajne varijable. ; The aim of this study is to overcome the lack of empirical research dealing with the main factors of currency crises in the Republic of Serbia, analyzing periods of currency crises and creating an early warning system to anticipate the upcoming currency crises. Using econometric analysis, this paper examines the determinants of currency crises episodes during the period from January 2007 to May 2018, and based on this, it makes proposals for economic policy makers. It has been shown that dominant factors are those that bind mostly with the effect of factors from the external environment, which is important in assessing and forecasting potential crises in the Republic of Serbia. More specifically, the obtained results indicate that the overvaluation of the national currency, current account balance as a percentage of GDP, imports and stock exchange index are statistically significant variables.

Budući da postoje različiti načini otkrivanja namjera središnjih banaka, pojavljuje se jednostavno istraživačko pitanje, koje se razmatra u ovoj studiji. Je li komponenta očekivanja potrošača usmjerena na budućnost povezana s načinom na koji središnje banke otkrivaju i koriste prognoze? Istraživanje obuhvaća šest zemalja: Češku, Mađarsku, Rumunjsku, Poljsku, Švedsku i Veliku Britaniju, u razdoblju od 2001. do 2016. godine. Naša metodologija sastoji se od kvantifikacije očekivanja, testova racionalnosti očekivanja, procjene stupnja njihove usmjerenosti na budućnost, indeksne procjene prognoziranja centralnih banaka o transparentnosti i važnosti prognoze u monetarnoj politici, kao i korelacijskog ispitivanja dalekovidnosti monetarne politike i pogreške očekivanja. Na temelju dovršenog istraživanja povezujemo rezultate analize usmjerenosti na budućnost s indeksnom procjenom ciljanog prognoziranja inflacije. Rezultati su različiti. Najviši stupanj usmjerenosti očekivanja na budućnost nalazi se u Velikoj Britaniji i Švedskoj. Očekivanja čeških potrošača su manje usmjerena na budućnost, dok je uključenost centralnih banaka u ciljano prognoziranje inflacije usporediva sa švedskim slučajem. Dvije zemlje nemaju komponentu usmjerenu na buduća očekivanja potrošača. Studija daje vrijedan doprinos postojećoj literaturi jer predstavlja novi pristup analizi odnosa između prognoze i ciljanog prognoziranja inflacije i očekivanja usmjerenih na budućnost. ; Since there are different ways of revealing central banks' intentions, a simple research question, which we address in this study, arises. Is the forward-looking (FL) component of consumers' expectations related to the way in which the forecast is revealed and used by central banks? The research covers six countries: The Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Poland, Sweden, and the UK, over the period of 2001-2016. Our methodology consists of the quantification of expectations, tests for rationality of expectations, estimation of the degree of their FL, the index-based assessment of central banks' forecasting transparency and importance of forecasts in monetary policy, as well as correlation examination of forward-lookingness of monetary policy and expectation errors. Based on the completed research, we link the results of the FL analysis to the index-based assessment of inflation forecasts targeting. The results are varied. The highest degree of expectations' FL is found for the UK and Sweden. Czech consumers' expectations are less FL, whereas central banks' involvement in inflation forecast targeting is comparable to the Swedish case. For two countries we found no forward-looking component in consumers' expectations. The study makes a valid contribution to the existing literature as it presents a novel approach to analysing the relation between forecasts and inflation forecast targeting and expectations.