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An original and comprehensive study of the sociological and psychological forces driving individual choices in French Presidential elections. Based on a unique comparative analysis of four French presidential contests over the last two decades, this book presents a rigorous examination of long-term and short-term voter motivations.

THE 1974 ELECTIONS UNDERLINED THE GROWING BIPOLARIZATION BETWEEN THE RIGHT AND THE LEFT, BUT ALSO WITHIN THE RIGHT ITSELF, WITH THE DEFEAT OF THE UDR BRANCH OF THE COALITION WHICH HAS GOVERNED FOR FIFTEEN YEARS. THE ELECTION HAS RAISED QUESTIONS CONCERNING THE FUTURE OF THE FRENCH ELECTORAL SYSTEM, INSTITUTIONS, AND PARTY ALIGNMENTS. BIBLIOGRAPHY IS INCLUDED.

International audience ; Emmanuel Macron's victory in the 2017 presidential elections represents one of the most important disruptions to French political life since the establishment of the Fifth Republic. This book analyses the political opportunities enabling a neophyte to conquer the Elysée, and the conditions leading to the unprecedented presidential runoff between this centrist EU enthusiast and pro-globalization candidate and the nationalistic/populist alternative embodied by Marine Le Pen. The book begins by considering trends in party competition and presidentialism in modern France, notably presidential primaries and their impact on party competition. It then moves to considering the role traditional explanatory factors in elections, namely policies and voter profiles, played in the result. Finally, it examines the dynamics of President Macron's success in the legislatives, and how he dominated the traditional party blocs. This book will appeal to students of French politics as well as those interested in electoral behaviour and European political systems.

International audience ; Emmanuel Macron's victory in the 2017 presidential elections represents one of the most important disruptions to French political life since the establishment of the Fifth Republic. This book analyses the political opportunities enabling a neophyte to conquer the Elysée, and the conditions leading to the unprecedented presidential runoff between this centrist EU enthusiast and pro-globalization candidate and the nationalistic/populist alternative embodied by Marine Le Pen. The book begins by considering trends in party competition and presidentialism in modern France, notably presidential primaries and their impact on party competition. It then moves to considering the role traditional explanatory factors in elections, namely policies and voter profiles, played in the result. Finally, it examines the dynamics of President Macron's success in the legislatives, and how he dominated the traditional party blocs. This book will appeal to students of French politics as well as those interested in electoral behaviour and European political systems.

International audience ; Emmanuel Macron's victory in the 2017 presidential elections represents one of the most important disruptions to French political life since the establishment of the Fifth Republic. This book analyses the political opportunities enabling a neophyte to conquer the Elysée, and the conditions leading to the unprecedented presidential runoff between this centrist EU enthusiast and pro-globalization candidate and the nationalistic/populist alternative embodied by Marine Le Pen. The book begins by considering trends in party competition and presidentialism in modern France, notably presidential primaries and their impact on party competition. It then moves to considering the role traditional explanatory factors in elections, namely policies and voter profiles, played in the result. Finally, it examines the dynamics of President Macron's success in the legislatives, and how he dominated the traditional party blocs. This book will appeal to students of French politics as well as those interested in electoral behaviour and European political systems.

Abstract. We make use of a novel forecasting technique based on the Hotelling-Downs spatial framework to project vote outcomes in the second round of the two-round French presidential election system. In doing so we take advantage of the high degree of bimodality in the distribution of voter preferences to predict which candidates will make it into the second round. While our principal focus is on the 2007 election, we also look at the seven previous presidential elections in the French Fifth Republic, from 1965 through 2002.Résumé. Pour prédire le résultat du deuxième tour de scrutin des élections présidentielles françaises de 2007, nous avons fait appel à une nouvelle technique fondée sur le modèle spatial de Hotelling-Downs. En procédant ainsi, nous avons pris en compte le haut degré de bimodalité de la distribution des préférences pour pronostiquer lequel des deux candidats remporterait la victoire. Bien que nous ayons surtout centré notre attention sur l'élection présidentielle de 2007, nous avons aussi examiné les sept élections présidentielles antérieures de la Cinquième République, tenues de 1965 à 2002, afin de tester notre méthode et prédire ex ante les résultats de 2007.

THE 1986 ELECTION WAS THE BEGINNING OF 'COHABITATION' and 1988 was the end of it — at least of the Fifth Republic's first experience of it. Cohabitation between the President and a Prime Minister who was his chief political adversary was to be the last great test of the stability and adaptability of the Fifth Republic's political institutions. It had been the dominant theme in 1986 just as the fearsome prospect of cohabitation between left-wing parliamentary majorities and previous presidents had been to the forefront in the parliamentary elections of 1978 and even 1973. It was as the President of cohabitation that FranGois Mitterrand won his extraordinary 1988 victory. The survival of presidential legitimacy against the onslaught of prime ministerial power is what the 1988 presidential election will be remembered for. This is the principal theme of this article.

AbstractWho will win the next French presidential election? Forecasting electoral results from political-economy models is a recent tradition in France. In this article, we pursue this effort by estimating a vote function based on both local and national data for the elections held between 1981 and 2007. This approach allows us to circumvent the small N problem and to produce more robust and reliable results. Based on a model including economic (unemployment) and political (approval and previous results) variables, we predict the defeat, although by a relatively small margin, of the right-wing incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round of the French presidential election to be held in May 2012.