Suchergebnisse

Some pictures, for those who believe in the constant or trend velocity Quantity Theory for the US. Figure 1: Log M2 divided by real GDP (blue), log GDP deflator (tan), both 2000Q1=0. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Board via FRED, NBER, and author's calculations. Figure 2: Nominal GDP divided […]

GDP at 1.5%, PCE at 1.8%. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for monthly GDP deflator (black), core PCE (red), per Eeckhout (2023). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: S&P Global Market Insights, BEA, NBER and author's calculations.

Official is 5.3% y/y (consensus 4.8%), vs BOFIT 4.3%. Source: BOFIT (2024). The BOFIT alternative is based on reported nominal GDP and using alternative price deflator. The Fernald-Hsu-Spiegel CCAT is not yet available for Q1. As of 2023Q4, CCAT y/y deviation from trend was slightly above official GDP.

Posit money includes everything in M1-M3 and Treasurys per John Hall (says use broad divisia aggregate). Estimate a regression of log GDP deflator divided by Divisia M4 and real GDP over the 1967-2019 period (Engle-Granger). p = 8.11 + 1.33(m4-y) p is the log GDP deflator, m4 is log divisia M4 including Treasurys, and y […]

This paper studies the relative performance of alternative monetary policy rules in the presence of oil price shocks in a small open economy optimizing model. Our analysis shows that it is important to distinguish between alternative price indices (CPI, core CPI, and GDP deflator) when modeling the effects of oil price increases. This distinction has important implications for monetary policy as the central bank has to decide which inflation rate to target. Our results demonstrate that targeting the change in the GDP deflator is an inferior monetary policy strategy in the presence of oil price shocks.

This paper studies the relative performance of alternative monetary policy rules in the presence of oil price shocks in a small open economy optimizing model. Our analysis shows that it is important to distinguish between alternative price indices (CPI, core CPI, and GDP deflator) when modeling the effects of oil price increases. This distinction has important implications for monetary policy as the central bank has to decide which inflation rate to target. Our results demonstrate that targeting the change in the GDP deflator is an inferior monetary policy strategy in the presence of oil price shocks.

This study investigates a total tax rate and shadow economy in ASEAN from 1991 to 2015. The critical variable in this study is the shadow economy as dependent variables. Then total tax rate, ATMs number per 100,000 adults, deposit interest rate, and GDP deflator as independent variables. Data obtained from the country indicators at the World Bank and Global Economy. The writers use quantitative research methods with the Generalized Least Squares regression model. The result shows that the shadow economy existence. The increase of the total tax rate, the increase of GDP deflator, and the decrease of deposit interest rate on the shadow economy, causing considerable losses to government revenue. This study provides strategic information to policymakers in the tax policy review.

Reader Econned, in response to my posting of pictures of M2 divided by real GDP, and the GDP deflator, castigates me for the use of conventional monetary aggregates: M2? This is a pitifully disingenuous post – those who see value in QTM use a divisia index as the monetary aggregate. And you know this. I […]

Keeping in view the objective that is to observe the usefulness of fiscal policy on real GDP of Pakistan, the study collects time series data from 1976 to 2012 through reliable sources of statistical bureaus of Pakistan. Using Johansen Cointegration test, the long run results demonstrate investment and government expenditure as raising factor for real GDP of Pakistan while GDP Deflator and government revenue as de-motivating factor for real GDP of Pakistan in the long run.