Suchergebnisse

THE WIDE CROSS-COUNTRY DISPARITY IN RATES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IS THE MOST PUZZLING FEATURE OF THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. THIS PAPER DESCRIBES A CLASS OF MODELS IN WHICH THIS HETEROGENEITY IN GROWTH EXPERIENCES CAN BE THE RESULT OF CROSS-COUNTRY DIFFERENCES IN GOVERNMENT POLICY. THESE DIFFERENCES CAN ALSO CREATE INCENTIVES OF LABOR MIGRATION FROM SLOW-GROWING TO FAST-GROWING COUNTRIES. IN THE MODELS CONSIDERED, GROWTH IS ENDOGENOUS DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF INCREASING RETURNS BECAUSE THERE IS A "CORE" OF CAPITAL GOODS THAT CAN BE PRODUCED WITHOUT THE DIRECT OR INDIRECT CONTRIBUTION OF FACTORS THAT CANNOT BE ACCUMULATED, SUCH AS LAND.

FROM AN ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE STATISTICAL MATERIAL ON THE BRITISH, FRENCH, GERMAN AND THE U.S. ECONOMICS IN THE PERIOD 1790-1920, THE RUSSIAN ECONOMIST KONDRATIEFF CONCLUDED THAT THERE ARE LONG CYCLES IN ECONOMIC LIFE OF ABOUT 45-55 YEARS IN DURATION IN ADDITION TO 8-10 YEAR CYCLES. THESE CONCLUSIONS ARE EXAMINED AS THEY RELATE TO THE HISTORY AND FUTURE OF U.S. TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT.

ROBERT HIGGS'S CRISIS AND LEVIATHAN ARGUES THAT THERE IS A RATCHET EFFECT BOTH AFTER MAJOR WARS AND OTHER SERIOUS CRISES, SUCH AS DEPRESSIONS: ATTITUDINAL OR IDEOLOGICAL CHANGES LEAD NOT ONLY TO GREATER GOVERNMENT SPENDING BUT GREATER INTRUSION OF GOVERNMENT INTO ECONOMIC COMMAND AND CONTROL. HIGGS'S EXPLANATION OF THE GROWTH OF GOVERNMENT, HOWEVER, IS EMBEDDED IN AND DRIVEN BY A PARTICULAR IDEOLOGICAL VIEW OF THE LEGAL-ECONOMIC WORLD, ONE THAT MISAPPREHENDS CERTAIN LEGAL-ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS, INCLUDING THE SCOPE OF ECONOMIC COMMAND AND CONTROL, AND THAT FAILS TO DEAL WITH CERTAIN INTERPRETIVE COMPLEXITIES, INCLUDING ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS.

THIS PAPER HAS THREE CLOSELY CONNECTED THEMES. THE FIRST IS THE IMPORTANCE OF QUANTIFICATION. THE SECOND THEME EMERGES FAIRLY SWIFTLY FROM A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF PROBLEMS OF QUANTIFICATION. THE THIRD THEME ALSO FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY FROM THE SECOND, BUT HAS BEEN SURPRISING NEGLECTED. THIS PAPERS ARGUES THAT THE TEACHING OF ECONOMICS IS DANGEROUSLY FRAGMENTED OR COMPARTMENTALIZED. THESE THEMES ARE ILLUSTRATED FROM THE SUBJECT OF PUBLIC FINANCE, AND THIS PAPER CONSIDERS THE SIMPLEST CASE OF A SINGLE TAX ON A GOOD PRODUCED COMPETITIVELY UNDER CONSTANT RETURNS.

THE AUTHORS INTEGRATE THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL AS AN ENGINE OF GROWTH AND AS A DETERMINANT OF LIFE-CYCLE PROFILES OF EARNINGS AND LABOR SUPPLY. THEY EXTEND THE AUERBACH-KOTLIKOFF SIMULATION MODEL IN ORDER TO INTRODUCE TRAINING DECISIONS AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH. THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHICS AND TAXATION ON THE ENDOGENOUS RATE OF GROWTH IS STUDIED. UNLIKE INFINITE HORIZON MODELS OF GROWTH, INCOME GROWTH PER CAPITA AND POPULATION GROWTH ARE INVERSELY RELATED AND, UNLIKE FERTILITY-BASED MODELS, THE DIRECTION OF CAUSALITY GOES FROM THE EXOGENOUS POPULATION GROWTH TO THE ENDOGENOUS ECONOMIC GROWTH. TAXATION POLICY THAT FAVORS HUMAN CAPITAL AS OPPOSED TO PHYSICAL CAPITAL TRANSLATES INTO HIGHER INCOME GROWTH PER CAPITA.

ALTHOUGH THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES NOW CONSUME A RELATIVELY SMALL FRACTION OF THE WORLD'S ENERGY, THIS FRACTION COULD GROW RAPIDLY OVER THE COMING DECADES. BY COMPARISON WITH THE INDUSTRIALIZED NATIONS, THE LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES HAVE HIGH POPULATION GROWTH RATES AND HIGH INCOME ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL ENERGIES.

THE ARTICLE CONTRADICTS THE THESIS OF MANCUR OLSON ON THE RELATION BETWEEN INTEREST ASSOCIATIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH, PRESENTED IN HIS BOOK "THE RISE AND DECLINE OF NATIONS." IT IS BASED ON EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM STUDIES ON INTEREST ASSOCIATIONS AND ON SECTORAL CORPORATISM. BY CONTRAST TO THE BOOK, THE AUTHORS PROVIDE EVIDENCE THAT INTEREST ASSOCIATIONS CAN MAKE A POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION TO ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE.

MIAMI'S GLOBALIZATION IS ACCOMPANIED BY A RESTRUCTURING OF THE CITY'S POLITICAL ECONOMY AND THE EMERGENCE OF A POWERFUL GROWTH MACHINE. AFTER THE SHOCK CAUSED BY MASSIVE LATINO IMMIGRATION WORE OFF, THE OLD BUSINESS ELITE COMBINED FORCES WITH THE NEW HISPANIC (CUBAN) ELITE AND CAPITALIZED ON MIAMI'S INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES. MIAMI'S EXPERIENCE ILLUSTRATES THE MATERIALIST IMPERATIVES OF GLOBALIZATION AND ITS UNPLANNED SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES. THE BENEFITS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ARE NOT EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED, AND THERE ARE NOTABLE DISCREPANCIES ALONG ETHNIC LINES. THE GROWTH MACHINE GENERATES LOCAL NARRATIVES THAT EMPHASIZE THE VALUES OF MULTICULTURALISM, BUT MIAMI'S CIVIC SOCIETY HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AND FRAGILE. AS AN EXTREME EXAMPLE OF A GLOBALIZED CITY, MIAMI OFFERS A GLIMPSE OF THE FATE OF URBAN CIVILIZATION IN THE GLOBAL ERA.