Suchergebnisse

International audience ; The Political Legislation Cycle theory predicts a peak of legislative production in the pre-electoral period, when legislators focus on voters' welfare to be reelected. This paper verifies the theory on South Korean legislative production (1948–2016); it is the first test of the theory in a country undergoing a process of democratization, thus providing evidence relevant also for the conditional political cycles literature. Two insofar untested hypotheses are verified: 1) peaks of legislative production should increase with the degree of democracy; 2) as the party system and the mechanisms of legislative checks and balances develop, the PLC should become more evident in bills of legislative rather than executive's initiative. A hurdle model estimated on both laws of parliamentary proposal and of government assignment lends empirical support to both hypotheses, with the noticeable feature that PLC in Korea appear more in the form of an upward trend than of pre-electoral peaks. © 2021 Elsevier B.V.

In this contribution, I use the Fiscal theory of the price level as a backdrop for a discussion on the risks that expansionary fiscal policies may pose on debt sustainability. I recall that a regime of fiscal dominance does not lead to macroeconomic instability. I also review a few empirical papers on fiscal sustainability and I conclude, also based upon own estimates, that it is not a major concern, at least in the short to mid-run. Finally, I argue that Europeans should continue on the fiscal impetus they contributed to in 2020 by fostering coordination and transparency on EU fiscal policies. To achieve this objective, I revisit the idea of an enhanced dialogue on fiscal matters at the European Parliament and propose to establish a Fiscal Dialogue with the EU Member States.

International audience ; The Political Legislation Cycle theory predicts a peak of legislative production in the pre-electoral period, when legislators focus on voters' welfare to be reelected. This paper verifies the theory on South Korean legislative production (1948–2016); it is the first test of the theory in a country undergoing a process of democratization, thus providing evidence relevant also for the conditional political cycles literature. Two insofar untested hypotheses are verified: 1) peaks of legislative production should increase with the degree of democracy; 2) as the party system and the mechanisms of legislative checks and balances develop, the PLC should become more evident in bills of legislative rather than executive's initiative. A hurdle model estimated on both laws of parliamentary proposal and of government assignment lends empirical support to both hypotheses, with the noticeable feature that PLC in Korea appear more in the form of an upward trend than of pre-electoral peaks. © 2021 Elsevier B.V.

En la discusión del Proyecto de los primeros Presupuestos Generales del Estado (PGE) que deberán afrontar el impacto económico y social de la pandemia de COVID-19, el gobernador inicia su comparecencia con un análisis del comportamiento reciente de la economía y de su posible evolución en los próximos trimestres, a la luz de las proyecciones del Banco de España. En ese marco, valora el cuadro macroeconómico del Gobierno en el que se apoya el Proyecto de PGE. A continuación, calibra las principales propuestas del Proyecto en términos del tono de la política fiscal, la composición de los ingresos y gastos públicos y su pertinencia, y los riesgos para el cumplimiento del objetivo de déficit público. Por último, expone los que considera que son los retos más importantes para la política fiscal de España en el medio plazo. ; In discussing the first Draft State Budget to address the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Governor begins with an analysis of the economy's recent behaviour and how it may evolve in the coming quarters, drawing on the Banco de España's projections. Against this background, he assesses the Government's macroeconomic forecast underpinning the Draft State Budget. He proceeds to calibrate the Budget's main proposals in terms of the fiscal policy stance, the composition and appropriateness of public revenue and expenditure, and the risks to meeting the budget deficit target. Lastly, he sets out what he considers to be the key challenges for Spanish fiscal policy in the medium term.

En la discusión del proyecto de los primeros Presupuestos Generales del Estado (PGE) que deberán afrontar el impacto económico y social de la pandemia de COVID-19, el gobernador inicia su comparecencia con un análisis del comportamiento reciente de la economía y de su posible evolución en los próximos trimestres, a la luz de las proyecciones del Banco de España. En ese marco, valora el cuadro macroeconómico del Gobierno en el que se apoya el Proyecto de PGE. A continuación, calibra las principales propuestas del Proyecto en términos del tono de la política fiscal, la composición de los ingresos y gastos públicos y su pertinencia, y los riesgos para el cumplimiento del objetivo de déficit público. Por último, expone los que considera que son los retos más importantes para la política fiscal de España en el medio plazo. ; In discussing the first Draft State Budget to address the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Governor begins with an analysis of the economy's recent behaviour and how it may evolve in the coming quarters, drawing on the Banco de España's projections. Against this background, he assesses the Government's macroeconomic forecast underpinning the Draft State Budget. He proceeds to calibrate the Budget's main proposals in terms of the fiscal policy stance, the composition and appropriateness of public revenue and expenditure, and the risks to meeting the budget deficit target. Lastly, he sets out what he considers to be the key challenges for Spanish fiscal policy in the medium term.

22 pages ; In this paper we use the notion of distributable surplus, introduced by Allais (1943) and Luenberger (1992), to evaluate the capacity of European countries to repay their debts. In our analysis, we use Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models to simulate di erent policies that can be implemented to achieve debt sustainability. We rst evaluate the quantity of distributable surplus that can be extracted from policies aiming at increasing the quantity of labor and/or capital available in the economy. We show that the results are very sensitive whether we consider de cits before and after the recent nancial and economic crises. Then, assuming that governments are able to capture all the distributable surpluses, we compute the date at which they are able to repay their debts. In particular, we nd that most EU countries, excepted Germany and to lesser extent France and the UK, cannot achieve debt sustainability. We nally discuss the usefulness of Eurobonds.

22 pages ; In this paper we use the notion of distributable surplus, introduced by Allais (1943) and Luenberger (1992), to evaluate the capacity of European countries to repay their debts. In our analysis, we use Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models to simulate di erent policies that can be implemented to achieve debt sustainability. We rst evaluate the quantity of distributable surplus that can be extracted from policies aiming at increasing the quantity of labor and/or capital available in the economy. We show that the results are very sensitive whether we consider de cits before and after the recent nancial and economic crises. Then, assuming that governments are able to capture all the distributable surpluses, we compute the date at which they are able to repay their debts. In particular, we nd that most EU countries, excepted Germany and to lesser extent France and the UK, cannot achieve debt sustainability. We nally discuss the usefulness of Eurobonds.

22 pages ; In this paper we use the notion of distributable surplus, introduced by Allais (1943) and Luenberger (1992), to evaluate the capacity of European countries to repay their debts. In our analysis, we use Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models to simulate di erent policies that can be implemented to achieve debt sustainability. We rst evaluate the quantity of distributable surplus that can be extracted from policies aiming at increasing the quantity of labor and/or capital available in the economy. We show that the results are very sensitive whether we consider de cits before and after the recent nancial and economic crises. Then, assuming that governments are able to capture all the distributable surpluses, we compute the date at which they are able to repay their debts. In particular, we nd that most EU countries, excepted Germany and to lesser extent France and the UK, cannot achieve debt sustainability. We nally discuss the usefulness of Eurobonds.

This paper analyses the effect of National Numerical Fiscal Rules (FRs) upon fiscal discipline in 74 developing countries over the period 1990-2007. It is the first study that assesses the impact of FRs on budgetary outcomes while controlling for the self-selection problem. It finds that the effect of FRs on structural fiscal balance is significantly positive, robust to a variety of alternative specifications, and varies with the type of FRs. It also finds that the treatment effect differs according to countries characteristics: number of FRs, time length since FRs adoption, presence of supranational FRs, government fractionalisation and government stability.