Suchergebnisse

Trotz der guten wirtschaftlichen Lage in der Eurozone verzeichnen einige Krisenländer nach wie vor ein geringes Wachstum und eine hohe Arbeitslosigkeit. Diese Länder erhoffen sich von einer Erhöhung der Nachfrage in den wirtschaftlich erfolgreicheren Staaten eine Unterstützung ihres Aufschwungs. Die möglichen Spillovereffekte eines Anschubs beispielsweise aus Deutschland werden aber im Allgemeinen überbewertet. Wichtiger wäre es, wenn die Krisenstaaten durch interne Reformen ihre Wettbewerbsfähigkeit stärken würden. Zudem könnte sich eine Schwächung der deutschen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit durch steigende Löhne und Preise auch negativ auf sie auswirken. ; The economic situation of the eurozone has recently improved. Nevertheless, growth and employment fi gures of important member countries such as Italy, Spain and France demonstrate clearly that the crisis is not yet over. The weaker economies' request for support from their stronger neighbours, particularly Germany, is a constant element of political debate. Germany refuses to go along with demand-side-oriented investment programmes that are meant to produce positive spillover effects for its neighbour countrie s. Instead, the German government sticks to its austerity policy, claiming that the source of the eurozone's prolonged economic vuln erability can be found on the supply side, weakening those economies' international competitiveness. Relying on economic data analysis rather than politically motivated arguments, this paper focuses on the economic facts behind these two conflicting lines of argumentation.

Summary The aim of this article is to analyse public investment expenditure with sustainable external financing. Theoretical development considers the conditions of solvency and fiscal compliance that make it possible to establish a sustainable debt accumulation rule with a policy of spending on public investment. An empirical analysis of a fiscal reaction function validates the assumption of positive effects of the implementation of the primary balance sheet rule and on budgetary physical investment for the period 1990: I-2019: IV. The results suggest discussing the relevance of changing debt and government spending policy for stimulating economic activity. Jel Classification: E62, H62, H63, H68 ; Resumen El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el gasto en inversión pública con financiamiento externo sostenible. El desarrollo teórico considera las condiciones de solvencia y cumplimiento fiscal que permitan determinar una regla de acumulación de deuda sostenible con una política de gasto en inversión pública. Empíricamente se analiza una función de reacción fiscal que valida la hipótesis de efectos positivos de la implementación de la regla sobre el balance primario y sobre la inversión física presupuestaria para el periodo 1990:I-2019:IV. Los resultados sugieren discutir la pertinencia de modificar la política de endeudamiento y gasto público para el estímulo de la actividad económica. JEL Classification: E62, H62, H63, H68

Obwohl die Politik stets beteuert, keine Schulden machen zu wollen, bekommen die meisten Staaten ihr Verschuldungsproblem nicht in den Griff. Ein Vergleich mit individuellen Problemen der Selbstkontrolle, etwa bei Übergewichtigen oder Rauchern, bietet sich hier an. Würden die Staaten den Schuldenabbau tatsächlich wollen, gäbe es funktionierende Lösungskonzepte. ; Although policy-makers often promise to reduce budget deficits, most countries have high and increasing debt ratios. In this regard, government behaviour shows some intriguing similarities to individuals with self-control problems. If this comparison holds, there is a range of policy measures which could be taken by governments willing to reduce their debt burden.

Central banks invest their foreign exchange reserves predominantly in government securities. By means of a panel data analysis we examine the relationship between reserve currency status and public budget balance during different constellations of the international monetary system: the sterling period (1890-1935) and the dollar dominance (since World War II). We show for both periods that reserve currency status significantly lowers the public budget balance of the center countries.

The understanding of the economic effect of formal institutional rules has progressed substantially in recent decades. These formal analyses have tended to take for granted that institutional arenas such as Congress are the places where decision-making takes place. That is a good approximation in some cases (such as many developed countries today) but not in others. If countries differ in how institutionalized their policymaking is, it is possible that the impact of formal political rules on policy outcomes might depend on that. This paper explores that hypothesis and finds that some important claims regarding the impact of constitutions on policy outcomes do not hold for countries in which institutionalization is low. The findings suggest the need to develop a broader class of policymaking models in which the degree to which decision-making follows 'the rules' is also endogenized.

Expectations of transfers by central governments incentivize overborrowing by local governments. In this paper, we ask if fiscal rules can reduce overborrowing if central governments cannot commit to enforce penalties when rules are violated. We study a model in which the central government's type is unknown and show that fiscal rules increase overborrowing if the central government's reputation is low. In contrast, fiscal rules are effective in lowering debt if the central government's reputation is high. Even when the central government's reputation is low, binding fiscal rules will arise in the equilibrium of a signaling game. (JEL E62, H62, H63, H77, H81)

Cyclically adjusted budget balances (CABs) are often used to provide an indication of the structural state of public finances. This paper analyzes the reliability of these figures in real time. In a test of the ability to forecast the "final data," we find that real‐time CABs are outperformed by a simpler methodology. Furthermore, we find that real‐time CABs have low power in detecting fiscal slippages and in correctly identifying fiscal improvements. Finally, we find that CABs are systematically less reliable under conditions of poor or deteriorating public finances, which means they are at their most unreliable precisely when they are needed most. (JEL H62, H87)

We test whether good economic conditions and expansionary fiscal policy help incumbents get reelected in a large panel of democracies. We find no evidence that deficits help reelection in any group of countries independent of income level, level of democracy, or government or electoral system. In developed countries and old democracies, deficits in election years or over the term of office reduce reelection probabilities. Higher growth rates over the term raise reelection probabilities only in developing countries and new democracies. Low inflation is rewarded by voters only in developed countries. These effects are both statistically significant and quite substantial quantitatively. (JEL D72, E62, H62, O47)

This article investigates the relationship between budget deficits and inflation with the view that the nature of this relationship depends on the characteristics of monetary and financial institutions. The main hypothesis is that budget deficits are especially inflationary when both the central bank is not independent and the financial market is not developed enough to contain inflationary expectations. The empirical analysis using a panel data that comprises 54 developed and less developed countries, with one to two decades of observations for each, supports this hypothesis. The findings are also robust to subsets of the sample. (JEL E58, H62)

We checked the validity of Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis in Pakistan by using structural consumption and saving function. By using ordinary least square method we checked the restrictions of Ricardian equivalence hypothesis that has been rejected by the vale of Wald test. The Engel-Granger causality approach explored uni-directional causality between Government Debt & Private Consumption and Government Debt & Private Saving whereas Bidirectional Causality exists between Government Budget Deficit & Private Saving. Hence, we concluded that fiscal policy is effective in case of Pakistan because Ricardian Equivalence does not hold in Pakistan that indicated the policy makers to use fiscal policy as a stabilizing policy of the economy.

This article aims to assess the impact of federal budget institutions on the primary deficit of the Brazilian Federal Government from 1985 to 2009, a period marked by important changes in these institutions. Based on the methodology established in the literature on political economy that is linked to the macroeconomic mainstream, three sets of budget indices and their respective sub-indices are constructed, and their behaviour over the period of analysis indicate that the changes made have resulted in institutions that induce greater fiscal discipline. Regarding the effect of these institutions on the fiscal performance, the results allow us to conclude that the institutional changes have contributed to a lower government deficit. ; O presente artigo tem por objetivo avaliar o impacto das instituições orçamentárias federais no déficit primário do Governo Federal, no período de 1985 a 2009, período este marcado por importantes mudanças nestas instituições. Com base na metodologia estabelecida na literatura de economia política ligada ao mainstream macroeconômico, três conjuntos de índices orçamentários e seus respectivos subíndices são construídos, e o seu comportamento ao longo do período analisado mostra que as mudanças realizadas resultaram em instituições que induzem a uma maior disciplina fiscal. No que tange ao impacto destas instituições sobre o resultado fiscal, os resultados permitem concluir que as mudanças institucionais contribuíram para um menor déficit público.

After Romania became a member of the European Union in 2007, acquis communautaire became part of the Romanian national legislation and although Turkey is not a member of the EU, the accession process as a candidate country covers many sectors, such as: taxation, statistic, environment, financial control, etc. Since 2007 Romania recorded a strong economic growth, making best use of EU structural funds to enhance investment, innovation, and employment. Turkey is a candidate country and a strategic partner for the European Union with a dynamic economy. Turkey applied to join the European Economic Community in 1987 and it was declared eligible to join the EU in 1997. Finally, the accession negotiations were opened with Turkey in October 2005 and in the last years many reforms have been implemented.The aim of this paper is to present a comparative study between fiscal and financial control reform in Romania and Turkey, the evolution of fiscal and financial reforms in Romania, and the major problems seen in the public fiscal system in Turkey.

Die Steuereinnahmen werden nach der Prognose des Arbeitskreises 'Steuerschätzungen' bis zum Jahr 2017 auf 706,6 Mrd. Euro steigen und damit das im Jahr 2011 erreichte Niveau um 133 Mrd. Euro übertreffen. Ein strukturell ausgeglichener Staatshaushalt wird voraussichtlich in diesem Jahr erzielt werden, so dass der geplante Abbau der kalten Progression mit der Haushaltskonsolidierung vereinbar ist. ; In October 2012 the Working Party on Tax Revenue Forecasting released a tax revenue estimate for the current year and the following five years based on the macroeconomic benchmark figures contained in the German government's autumn projection. Tax revenues will expand from €573.4 bn in 2011 to €706.6 bn in 2017. The tax ratio is projected to increase from 22.1% to 23.1%. The planned reduction of the fiscal drag in 2013 and 2014 has not been included. However, the reduction is compatible with the fiscal consolidation, because Germany is poised to achieve a budget that is close to balanced in structural terms this year.

Der Arbeitskreis Steuerschätzungen hat seine Prognose für das Steueraufkommen abermals nach oben revidiert. Damit können Bund, Länder und Kommunen bis 2016 mit höheren Steuereinnahmen rechnen, als bislang erwartet. Die Mehreinnahmen eröffnen budgetäre Handlungsspielräume, um die kalte Progression abzubauen, wenn gleichzeitig sparsam gewirtschaftet wird. ; In May 2012 the Working Party on Tax Revenue Forecasting released a tax revenue estimate for the current year and the following four years based on key macroeconomic data supplied by the German Federal Government. The new offi cial tax estimate forecasts additional revenues for central, state and local government. Tax revenues are expected to bring additional €24.9bn between 2012 and 2016. With the budgetary leeway, the fi scal drag, which has occurred since 2010, could be eliminated in 2013 and 2014. The Act to reduce fi scal drag would result in a revenue loss of €6bn a year.