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The Horn of Africa (HOA) is one of the most underdeveloped regions on earth. It is also one of the most conflict-ridden, insecure regions in the world. While Africa as a whole has enjoyed a trend in recent years toward reduction and termination of many of its civil wars, the HOA is the exception to the rule. Indeed, the region's prolonged armed conflicts have spread, engulfing several neighboring states in warfare and partial state collapse. While aspects of the HOA case are obviously unique, and sensitivity to context and complexity must be privileged in both analysis of and policy toward the Horn, the region's crises are not so distinct that they preclude useful comparative analysis. This paper considers conflict dynamics across the entire Horn of Africa, but devotes special attention to the case of Somalia which, because of the depth, length, and significance of its crisis, is a source of particular international concern. Because Somalia's crisis has been so protracted and has gone through several very distinct phases, it provides an opportunity to compare conflict dynamics in a single country over time.

All the countries abutting on the Red Sea and on the Gulf of Aden as well as the East African coast will gain in economic, political, and strategic importance as soon as the Suez Canal is reopened to shipping. The present article discusses the situation in an important subregion of this area, the so-called Horn of Africa which owes an eminent position under political and strategic aspects.

The forecasting of state failure and the associated indicators has been a topic of great interest to a number of different agencies. USAID, CENTCOM, the World Bank, the Center for Army Analyses, and others have all examined the subject based on their own specific objectives. Whether the goal is denying terrorists space in which to operate, deciding how to pre-position materials in anticipation of unrest, stabilizing foreign markets and trade, or preventing or mitigating humanitarian disasters, man made or otherwise, this topic has been of interest for over a decade. The Horn of Africa has been one of the least stable regions in the world over the past three decades, and a continual source of humanitarian crises as well as terrorist activity. Some of the initial modeling of instability was done in response to crises in the Horn of Africa, but research is ongoing. Current models forecasting instability suffer from lack of lead time, subjective predictions, and lack of specificity. The models demonstrated in this study provide 4 year forecasts of battle deaths per capita, refugees per capita, genocide, and undernourishment for Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. This thesis used principal component analysis, canonical correlation, ordinary least squares regression, logistic regression, and discriminant analysis to develop models of each instability indicator using 54 variables covering 32 years of observations. The key variables within each model are identified, and the accuracy of each model is compared with current models.

Exiled populations, who increasingly refer to themselves as diaspora communities, hold a strong stake in the fate of their countries of origin. In a world becoming ever more interconnected, they engage in 'long-distance politics' towards, send financial remittances to and support social development in their homelands. Transnational diaspora networks have thus become global forces shaping the relationship between countries, regions and continents. This important intervention, written by scholars working at the cutting edge of diaspora and conflict, challenges the conventional wisdom that diaspora are all too often warmongers, their time abroad causing them to become more militant in their engagement with local affairs. Rather, they can and should be a force for good in bringing peace to their home countries. Featuring in-depth case studies from the Horn of Africa, including Somalia and Ethiopia, this volume presents an essential rethinking of a key issue in African politics and development. ; CONTENTS: Introduction: Diasporas for peace and development - Petri Hautaniemi and Liisa Laakso -- PART ONE: Contextualising the Horn of Africa and the diaspora -- 1. Diaspora and multi-level governance for peace - Liisa Laakso -- 2. Regional political history and the production of diasporas - Guenther Schlee -- PART TWO: Case studies from the Horn of Africa -- 3. Rebuilding Somaliland through economic and educational engagement - Markus Virgil Hoehne and Mohamed Hassan Ibrahim -- 4. The Somali diaspora in conflict and peacebuilding: the Peace Initiative Programme - Mahdi Abdile -- 5. The 2007 delegation of the Muslim diaspora to Ethiopia - Dereje Feyissa -- 6. The Ethiopian diaspora and the Tigray Development Association - Bahru Zewde, Gebre Yntiso and Kassahun Berhanu -- PART THREE: European approaches to diaspora engagement -- 7. Interaction between Somali organizations and Italian and Finnish development actors - Petra Mezzetti, Valeria Saggiomo and Päivi Pirkkalainen -- 8. Approaches to diaspora engagement in the Netherlands - Giulia Sinatti -- 9. Norwegian collaboration with diasporas - Rojan Ezzati and Cindy Horst -- Afterword - Petri Hautaniemi, Liisa Laakso and Mariko Sato

The objective of this Regional Economic Memorandum (REM) is to strengthen the economic analysis available to policymakers on the challenges and opportunities for regional economic integration to support job creation and economic transformation in the Horn of Africa. It assesses the current state of regional economic integration, how policies and investments can deepen this integration, and how this could help to address the opportunities and challenges confronting the region. The analysis applies both an economic geography perspective (based on the 3Ds framework of the 2009 WDR – density, distance, and division) and the lens of the jobs and economic transformation (JET) agenda, whilst taking into account fragility and conflict and the region's complex and evolving political economy. This overview synthesizes the key findings of the analysis conducted for the HoA REM, full details of which are presented in a series of Background Papers. The overview briefly describes key aspects of the region's economy and development progress (Section 2). Next, in Section 3, it presents features of the economic geography of the region and some key results from economic modeling and transport connectivity analysis. The findings demonstrate the salience of the JET agenda in the Horn, and this and its implications are discussed in Section 4. Finally, Section 5 concludes by highlighting the main policy messages which emerge from the REM's regional-level analysis.

The Horn of Africa continues to illustrate a paradox. Even when numerous regional actors are committed to peacekeeping or support operations, the region remains the most conflictive in the continent. It alone includes a large part of problems related to forms of war - interstate, intra-state, by proxy. The implementation of the African Peace and Security Architecture and thus the increase in power of the Eastern Africa Standby Force Coordination Mechanism (EASFCOM) are of interest to the member states of the IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority for Development), the East African Community (EAC), the Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles and Tanzania. The situation evolves according to the balance of power between African countries in terms of political and military potential (Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi). The Horn of Africa is a laboratory that opens doors to reflection or studies on the military commitments capable of settling the conflicts in Africa. ; FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

Climate-related security risks are increasingly compounding existing political, social and economic challenges worldwide, with natural resources like water posing risks for geopolitical tensions and violent conflict. This policy paper presents a regional analysis of environment, peace and security linkages in the Horn of Africa, with a specific focus on water security and governance. It provides entry points for the international community to address the multifaceted risk landscape in the region. The Horn of Africa is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change such as droughts and floods. The transboundary water resources of the Nile and Juba–Shabelle river basins are of core relevance for the Horn of Africa because of the interaction and confluence of several political, social, economic and environmental processes. The tensions surrounding transboundary water resources retain the potential for geopolitical tensions and violent conflict within and among countries in the region. Posing challenges to peace and development in every continent, water security and governance can no longer be left unaddressed by the international community. This policy paper identifies political constraints and possible entry points for the international community to address the multidimensional challenge of water security and governance in the Horn of Africa.

The focus on global food security entered global academic discourse following the food conference in 1943 convened at the behest of the president of the United States of America (USA), Franklin Delano Roosevelt ––coinciding with the period of the Second World War period (WWII). The then President of USA mentioned above reiterate the 'freedom of speech; freedom of worship; freedom from want and freedom from fear' during this period. These lead to the creation of the United Nations Food and Agricultural organization (FOA). The central focus of the organization in relation to the food conferences that followed was generally to address the objective of freedom of want declared by President Roosevelt in relation to food insecurity. In this thesis, the challenges and prospect of food security is critically examined with respect to the Horn of Africa with particular focus on South-Sudan and Ethiopia. The Horn of Africa is notoriously known for its acute food shortages and hence regarded as the most food insecure part of the world. The region is characterized by a high occurrence of drought and arm conflict (UNFAO, 2017). The theoretical approach followed in this thesis is derived from the securitization theories credited to the Copenhagen School and the Aberystwth School, respectively. These schools of thought constitute a part of the post-modern movement in International Relation scholarship––known as the post-positivist–which became influential in the post-cold war era in the study of securitization. The methodological approach followed is based on critical examination of related empirical literature on the subject matter of food security from various sources. In most studies, food insecurity challenge is linked to extreme weather conditions and natural hazards in the Horn of Africa. In Ethiopia and South-Sudan whereas extreme weather conditions plays significant role, civil war, armed conflicts, structural problems and corruption are the major cause of the food security crisis in both countries. The strengthening of regional security framework to ensure peace and stability in the Horn of Africa––promoting credibility in the national food security institution and embarking on sustainable government policies towards addressing the pervasive corruption and structural problems are recommended as prospects to addressing the challenges of the food insecurity in the selected countries in particular and the Horn of Africa in general. ; ÖZ: Küresel gıda güvenliği üzerinde odak Gıda Konferansı 1943'te toplandı, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD), Franklin Delano Roosevelt -Başkan buyruğuyla genel akademik söylem aşağıdaki girdi-İkinci Dünya Savaşı dönemi (WWII) dönemi ile rastlayan. Yinelemek bahsedilen ABD o zaman Başkan ' ifade özgürlüğü; ibadet özgürlüğü; Özgürlük istiyorum ve korkusuzca ' Bu dönemde. Bunlar Birleşmiş Milletler Gıda ve Tarım Örgütü'nün (FOA) oluşturulmasına yol açıyor. Örgütün, takip eden gıda konferanslarıyla ilgili odak noktası genel olarak Başkan Roosevelt'in gıda güvensizliğiyle ilgili olarak ilan ettiği istemsizlik hedefini ele almaktı. Günümüz tezinde, gıda güvenliği ile ilgili zorluklar ve ihtimal, Güney Sudan ve Etiyopya odaklı Afrika boynuzuyla eleştirel bir biçimde incelenmektedir. Afrika Boynuzu, akut gıda sıkıntısı nedeniyle bilinir ve bu nedenle dünyanın en gıdası güvensiz bir parçası olarak görülür. Bölge, kuraklık ve silah çatışmasının yüksek oranda görülmesi ile karakterize edilmiştir (UNFAO, 2017). Bu tezde izlenen kuramsal yaklaşım sırasıyla Kopenhag Okulu ve Aberystwyth Okulu'na verilen seküritizasyon teorilerinden türetilmiştir. Bu düşünce okulları, post-modern hareketi, Soğuk Savaş döneminde menkul kıymetleştirmeyi incelerken etkili olan Uluslararası İlişki Bursu'nda (post-pozitivist olarak da bilinir) oluşmaktadır. İzlenen metodolojik yaklaşım, çeşitli kaynaklardan gelen gıda güvenliğine ilişkin ilgili ampirik literatürün eleştirel incelemesine dayanmaktadır. Yapısal sorunlara ek olarak, gıda güvencesizlik mücadelesi aşırı boy hava koşullarına ve Afrika boynuzundaki silahlı çatışmalara bağlıdır. Etiyopya'da Güney-Sudan'da aşırı hava şartları önemli bir öneme sahipken, iç savaş ve çatışmalar ülkedeki gıda güvenliği krizinin ana nedenidir. Afrika boynuzundaki barış ve istikrarı sağlamak, ulusal gıda güvenlik kurumunda güvenilirliği artırmak ve sürdürülebilir hükümet politikalarına girmek için bölgesel güvenlik çerçevesinin güçlendirilmesi, genel olarak Afrika boynuzundaki gıda güvensizliğinin meydan okumalarına yönelik beklentiler olarak önerilmektedir. ; Master of Arts in International Relations. Thesis (M.A.)--Eastern Mediterranean University, Faculty of Business and Economics, Dept. of Political Science and International Relations, 2017. Supervisor: Assist. Prof. Dr. Günay Aylin Gürzel.

This article outlines the causes of conflict in the Horn of Africa and the joint EU-Africa strategies undertaken by the European Union and the Horn of Africa partners to bring sustainable peace to the region.

This article seeks to examine the role geo-strategic driven interest politics plays in security, stability, development and democratisation in the Horn of Africa (HOA). It aims to interrogate the various external interventions in the region with the aim of enhancing geostrategic interest of great powers. The most notorious geo-strategic driven intervention in postcolonial time in the region was the Cold War rivalry of the superpowers that transformed the region into playground of bipolar strife. The end of Cold War brought a brief respite in the geostrategic driven intervention in the region. The US global war on terror and the war against piracy offshores of Somalia brought again the politics of geo-strategic intervention to the region. What are the consequences of the politics of geo-strategic interest to the region? This article examines the consequences of the geo-strategic interest driven intervention to security, stability, development and democratisation in the HOA.

The Horn of Africa (HOA) covers Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda. Despite its rich endowment in human, social, and natural capital, the region is plagued by a complex history of weak governance, insecurity, increasing environmental degradation, entrenched poverty, and a range of persistent development challenges. Conflict remains endemic in the region. The complex cultural, social, and political nature of these conflicts is compounded by demographic shifts due both to population growth and the movement of people, as well as imbalanced service provision, inaccessibility, the growing threat of pandemic diseases, increasing conflicts over scarce natural resources, and harsh climatic conditions including frequent droughts and floods. This study sought to analyze the forced displacement and development nexus, explore the mixed migration phenomenon, assess the impacts of refugees and migrants on hosting areas and communities, identify ongoing innovative interventions, and propose entry points and practical steps to address the development dimensions of forced displacement and mixed migration in the HOA, including regional operations, institutional reforms, and policy changes.

The world over, military diplomacy has not been always successful. This stems out of the fact that it could be faced by a plethora of challenges. This paper sets out to explore the key challenges facing AMISOM in military diplomacy in the Horn of Africa. The study adopted an exploratory and mixed methods research design. Data was obtained from a sample of 100 persons sampled from a population of 22,315 AMISOM Staff and Civilian contingent. The study employed a breadth of both primary and secondary sources for data collection. Primary data was being collected from study respondents by means of a research questionnaire and an interview schedule. The data analysis process involved both qualitative and quantitative techniques. Content analysis was mainly used to analyze the qualitative data and which would be reported normatively. Quantitative research findings were analyzed and reported using descriptive statistics, tables, graphs, charts and inferential statistics in Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS v23). Moreover, the data analysis was structured objectively to address each of the study research questions. The findings show that while competing interests may have clouded the scene at regional level, partly alluded to lack of a common approach to deal with the Somalia issue among the various countries, military diplomatic engagements by AMISOM are the most agreeable way to address regional peace and security. The study highlights the greater need for revised strategies in military diplomacy efforts and novel approaches to address competing interests among troop contributing countries that comprise AMISOM. Based on the study findings, the following recommendations were made. Arguably, the most important dimension of its success is hinged on the strategic unity and partnership of the different troops. At present however, the inconsistency in unity and strategic alliance among these countries continue to challenge the seamless command and probably influence the implementation of different military ...

The world over, military diplomacy has not been always successful. This stems out of the fact that it could be faced by a plethora of challenges. This paper sets out to explore the key challenges facing AMISOM in military diplomacy in the Horn of Africa. The study adopted an exploratory and mixed methods research design. Data was obtained from a sample of 100 persons sampled from a population of 22,315 AMISOM Staff and Civilian contingent. The study employed a breadth of both primary and secondary sources for data collection. Primary data was being collected from study respondents by means of a research questionnaire and an interview schedule. The data analysis process involved both qualitative and quantitative techniques. Content analysis was mainly used to analyze the qualitative data and which would be reported normatively. Quantitative research findings were analyzed and reported using descriptive statistics, tables, graphs, charts and inferential statistics in Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS v23). Moreover, the data analysis was structured objectively to address each of the study research questions. The findings show that while competing interests may have clouded the scene at regional level, partly alluded to lack of a common approach to deal with the Somalia issue among the various countries, military diplomatic engagements by AMISOM are the most agreeable way to address regional peace and security. The study highlights the greater need for revised strategies in military diplomacy efforts and novel approaches to address competing interests among troop contributing countries that comprise AMISOM. Based on the study findings, the following recommendations were made. Arguably, the most important dimension of its success is hinged on the strategic unity and partnership of the different troops. At present however, the inconsistency in unity and strategic alliance among these countries continue to challenge the seamless command and probably influence the implementation of different military diplomacy strategies based on competing interests. Further, while assets remain a critical component of military diplomacy, the success of such multidimensional peace operations is equally anchored on a civilian component and the need for civilian capabilities. The realization of effective peacemaking and peacekeeping calls for efficient management structures at the field and in Addis for strategic and support of mission teams. AMISOM currently experiences an insufficient institutional capacity and human resources required to effectively handle complex peace operations and peacemaking initiatives. Recent assessment reveals the institution bureaucratic processes are still weak.

This chapter introduces security cooperation as a tool of remote warfare, both in a general sense and in the specific case of US counterterrorism operations in the Horn of Africa. We argue that there is a twin security/strategic logic to its use: it functions to build the capacity of foreign security forces to deny terrorist organisations safe havens within their own borders or region; and to help secure American access to bases, airspace and foreign security personnel, 'thicken' political partnerships with overseas governments and to create new patterns of cooperation, influence and leverage.

Examining American foreign policy towards the Horn of Africa between 1945 and 1991, this book uses Ethiopia and Somalia as case studies to offer an evaluation of the decision-making process during the Cold War, and consider the impact that these decisions had upon subsequent developments both within the Horn of Africa and in the wider international context. The decision-making process is studied, including the role of the president, the input of his advisers and lower level officials within agencies such as the State Department and National Security Council, and the parts played by Congress, bureaucracies, public opinion, and other actors within the international environment, especially the Soviet Union, Ethiopia and Somalia. Jackson examines the extent to which influences exerted by forces other than the president affected foreign policy, and provides the first comprehensive analysis of American foreign policy towards Ethiopia and Somalia throughout the Cold War. This book offers a fresh perspective on issues such as globalism, regionalism, proxy wars, American aid programmes, anti-communism and human rights. It will be of great interest to students and academics in various fields, including American foreign policy, American Studies and Politics, the history of the Cold War, and the history of the Horn of Africa during the modern era.