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"The International Crisis Behavior Project" published on by Oxford University Press.

"International Crises Interrogated: Modeling the Escalation Process with Quantitative Methods" published on by Oxford University Press.

14 slides.-- Presentation showed at the Final Workshop FLEDGED Project: flexible Sorption Enhanced processes for biomass to DME conversion, 27-28-29 October 2020. ; Assess the performance of the Sorption Enhanced Gasification process in a 30 kWth bubbling fluidized bed reactor (BFB) placed at the Instituto de Carboquímica (CSIC) (Zaragoza, Spain). ; This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 727600. ; Peer reviewed

O objetivo deste trabalho foi comparar os três padrões tradicionais de gerenciamento de projetos, no caso, Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), Competence Baseline (ICB - IPMA) e Projects In Controlled Environments (PRINCE2), e verificar se os padrões deverão ser utilizados separadamente ou poderão ser utilizados em conjunto. Mostrou-se os conceitos do PMBOK, suas dez áreas de conhecimentos (Riscos, Recursos humanos, Escopo, Custo, Qualidade, Partes interessadas, Tempo, Integração, Comunicação, Aquisições), seus cinco grupos de processos (Iniciação, Planejamento, Execução, Monitoramento e controle e Encerramento) e seus 47 processos. Apresentou-se o ICB, o olho da competência, as três competências (Técnicas, Comportamentais e Contextuais) e seus 46 elementos. Descreveram-se os sete princípios do PRINCE2 (Justificativa de negócio, Aprender a partir da experiência, Papéis e Responsabilidades, Gerenciamento por estágios, Gerenciamento por exceção, Foco no produto), os sete temas (Business Case, Organização, Qualidade, Plano, Risco, Mudança, Progresso), e seus sete processos. Compararam-se os três padrões e dessa comparação concluiu-se que os três padrões podem ser utilizados de acordo com o entendimento do gerente do projeto, podendo usá-los de forma complementar.

This study uses a visualization technique, systemism, to integrate ICB Project findings about crisis, escalation and war in particular. The domain of the analysis, 1999–2017, is the period following the authoritative review of research in Michael Brecher (1999; International studies in the twentieth century and beyond: Flawed dichotomies, syntheses, cumulation, International Studies Quarterly 43: 213–264) up to the present. Systemism is used to combine, in graphic form, substantively significant results from ICB Project research. Insights about cause and effect for escalation processes are obtained that would not readily be available in the absence of graphic representation. This learning is made possible through application of systemism, a visualization technique, to convey a network of variables leading into war.

[ES] El presente Trabajo Fin de Máster tiene como objetivo analizar el área de Gestión de riesgos de la dirección de proyectos considerando y comparando los principales estándares y metodologías para la Dirección y Gestión de Proyectos, como son el Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBoK) del Project Management Institute, PRojects IN Controlled Environments 2 (PRINCE2) de la Office of Government Commerce (OGC-UK), el Open Project Management Methodology (PM2) de la Comisión Europea, la Individual Competence Baseline (ICB 4) de la International Project Management Association (IPMA) y Project Risk Analysis and Management (PRAM) de la Association for Project Management (APM-UK) Para ello se hará una revisión bibliográfica de los marcos de referencia anteriormente mencionados, centrando la atención en los procesos de gestión de riesgos, analizando las etapas de dichos procesos, las herramientas de análisis de riesgo y las estrategias de gestión de riesgo propuestas. Tras la revisión teórica es necesario realizar una comparación de la aplicación de estos enfoques. Para ello se ha decidido elegir como caso de estudio un proyecto del que se dispusiera abundante información y de envergadura suficiente para sufrir riesgos de diferente origen y tipología, seleccionando el Proyecto de Diseño y Construcción del Tercer Juego de Esclusas, perteneciente al Programa de Ampliación del Canal de Panamá. Por tanto, se ha realizado un plan de gestión del riesgo para dicho proyecto, utilizando los diferentes estándares y metodologías considerados y seguidamente se ha elaborado como conclusión un análisis comparativo de las analogías y diferencias, beneficios, carencias y limitaciones de cada uno de los enfoques. ; [EN] The main goal of the current thesis is to analyse the Risk Management of Project Management considering and comparing the main standards and methodologies in Project Management, such as Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBoK) by Project Management Institute, PRojects IN Controlled Environments 2 (PRINCE2) by ...

An essential, but often overlooked, role of concepts lies in how they constitute or define populations. Explicit choices made by researchers about concept structure are tied inextricably to the selection rule for identifying cases to include in analyses. Concept construction issues are absolutely crucial because the concept structure used interacts in various, usually hidden, ways with theories & hypotheses that researchers want to test. The concepts used to select cases may be correlated with common dependent variables hence producing selection bias. We illustrate this potential by exploring international crises as they have been conceptualized by the ICB Project. We show that two alternative conceptualizations of "crisis" produce populations that correlate with common ICB dependent variables. Our empirical analyses pay particular attention to variables related to power because they are particularly susceptible to being influenced by these selection effects. 4 Tables, 1 Figure, 44 References. Adapted from the source document.

Crisis escalation to war is a subject of longstanding interest. Case studies, formal models and statistical analysis offer compelling explanations for why some crises escalate to war while others do not. Much less can be said in answer to the following question: where do crises come from in the first place? In this paper, we first introduce the concept of a near crisis following the approach taken over the course of more than four decades by the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project. A near crisis is just below a crisis as defined by ICB with regard to intensity, as it lacks one essential condition for a crisis—higher likelihood of military hostilities. Second, we present a newly developed dataset that contains information on 86 cases in which actors perceived a threat to one or more basic values, along with an awareness of finite time for response to the value threat. We also present simple statistical models comparing (a) near crisis to crisis and (b) crisis to war that show that analyses based on the Near Crisis dataset will contribute to advancement of knowledge.

Crisis escalation to war is a subject of longstanding interest. Case studies, formal models and statistical analysis offer compelling explanations for why some crises escalate to war while others do not. Much less can be said in answer to the following question: where do crises come from in the first place? In this paper, we first introduce the concept of a near crisis following the approach taken over the course of more than four decades by the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project. A near crisis is just below a crisis as defined by ICB with regard to intensity, as it lacks one essential condition for a crisis—higher likelihood of military hostilities. Second, we present a newly developed dataset that contains information on 86 cases in which actors perceived a threat to one or more basic values, along with an awareness of finite time for response to the value threat. We also present simple statistical models comparing (a) near crisis to crisis and (b) crisis to war that show that analyses based on the Near Crisis dataset will contribute to advancement of knowledge.

Construction contract general condition clauses have a major influence on the likelihood and degree of project success. This paper is about comparison between FIDIC and PPA Conditions of Contract. To achieve the objective of the study a desk study has been conducted to identify the similarity and differences of the clauses in FIDIC (1999) and PPA-ICB (2011) conditions of contracts and due to different limitations the study focuses on few of the clauses. Consequently, interview questionnaires are prepared and distributed to Consultants, Contractors, Lawyers, concerned government bodies and individual professionals. Accordingly, from the feedback of the respondent, this paper uses qualitative method of analysis, frequency method, and I come up with my conclusions. The major findings and recommendations of the study are (1) Most of my respondents agreed that FIDIC provisions are the one which clearly indicate the rights, obligations, and remedial rights of each contracting parties.(2) our local conditions of contract are in some way adapted from FIDIC conditions of contract in such a way to keep government , public interests and also to substantiate control of the government financed projects.(3) Our condition of contract has to be upgraded with certain time, because it has some short coming and gap with FIDIC Condition of contract. Finally, I emphasis that because of the limitations faced during the study the conclusion given on this paper are not binding and it is used for educational purpose only. Hence I recommend further detailed study has to be conducted on the topic to clearly conduct holistic conclusions that all could explore a positive output.

Construction contract general condition clauses have a major influence on the likelihood and degree of project success. This paper is about comparison between FIDIC and PPA Conditions of Contract. To achieve the objective of the study a desk study has been conducted to identify the similarity and differences of the clauses in FIDIC (1999) and PPA-ICB (2011) conditions of contracts and due to different limitations the study focuses on few of the clauses. Consequently, interview questionnaires are prepared and distributed to Consultants, Contractors, Lawyers, concerned government bodies and individual professionals. Accordingly, from the feedback of the respondent, this paper uses qualitative method of analysis, frequency method, and I come up with my conclusions. The major findings and recommendations of the study are (1) Most of my respondents agreed that FIDIC provisions are the one which clearly indicate the rights, obligations, and remedial rights of each contracting parties.(2) our local conditions of contract are in some way adapted from FIDIC conditions of contract in such a way to keep government , public interests and also to substantiate control of the government financed projects.(3) Our condition of contract has to be upgraded with certain time, because it has some short coming and gap with FIDIC Condition of contract. Finally, I emphasis that because of the limitations faced during the study the conclusion given on this paper are not binding and it is used for educational purpose only. Hence I recommend further detailed study has to be conducted on the topic to clearly conduct holistic conclusions that all could explore a positive output.

AbstractThis study focuses on forced migration and interstate violence during international crises, as a major security concern with salient implications for international relations stability. The empirical data consists of 229 crises designated as Forced Migration Crises (FMC), identified within the 374 crises of the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) project. The study outlines a framework for analyzing FMC compared with Non-Forced Migration Crises (NFMC), presents an index of Forced Migration Magnitude (FMM), and probes three hypotheses. It points to transformations in forced migration since WWII, compares crises with and without forced migration, and explores patterns of FMM and violence. Results lead to rejection of hypothesis 1 on similarities between FMC and NFMC, supporting hypothesis 2 on considerable diversity between them. Findings on extended scope, strategic locale, enduring forced migration problems and increased violence support hypothesis 3, challenging the placement of forced migration merely as a social or humanitarian domestic concern. Instead, results show a salient increase in FMM, coupled with more severe interstate violence and war, dangerously destabilizing regions worldwide. These patterns require the integration of forced migration within crisis frameworks, as a new research agenda, to understand the nature of forced migration in the 21st century and its impact.

The objective of this paper is to address the methodological process of a teaching strategy for training project management complexity in postgraduate programs. The proposal is made up of different methods —intuitive, comparative, deductive, case study, problem-solving Project-Based Learning— and different activities inside and outside the classroom. This integration of methods motivated the current use of the concept of "learning strategy". The strategy has two phases: firstly, the integration of the competences —technical, behavioral and contextual—in real projects; and secondly, the learning activity was oriented in upper level of knowledge, the evaluating the complexity for projects management in real situations. Both the competences in the learning strategy and the Project Complexity Evaluation are based on the ICB of IPMA. The learning strategy is applied in an international Postgraduate Program —Erasmus Mundus Master of Science— with the participation of five Universities of the European Union. This master program is fruit of a cooperative experience from one Educative Innovation Group of the UPM -GIE-Project-, two Research Groups of the UPM and the collaboration with other external agents to the university. Some reflections on the experience and the main success factors in the learning strategy were presented in the paper

The objective of this paper is to address the methodological process of a teaching strategy for training project management complexity in postgraduate programs. The proposal is made up of different methods —intuitive, comparative, deductive, case study, problem-solving Project-Based Learning— and different activities inside and outside the classroom. This integration of methods motivated the current use of the concept of ―learning strategy‖. The strategy has two phases: firstly, the integration of the competences —technical, behavioral and contextual—in real projects; and secondly, the learning activity was oriented in upper level of knowledge, the evaluating the complexity for projects management in real situations. Both the competences in the learning strategy and the Project Complexity Evaluation are based on the ICB of IPMA. The learning strategy is applied in an international Postgraduate Program —Erasmus Mundus Master of Science— with the participation of five Universities of the European Union. This master program is fruit of a cooperative experience from one Educative Innovation Group of the UPM -GIE-Project-, two Research Groups of the UPM and the collaboration with other external agents to the university. Some reflections on the experience and the main success factors in the learning strategy were presented in the paper.