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An essential, but often overlooked, role of concepts lies in how they constitute or define populations. Explicit choices made by researchers about concept structure are tied inextricably to the selection rule for identifying cases to include in analyses. Concept construction issues are absolutely crucial because the concept structure used interacts in various, usually hidden, ways with theories & hypotheses that researchers want to test. The concepts used to select cases may be correlated with common dependent variables hence producing selection bias. We illustrate this potential by exploring international crises as they have been conceptualized by the ICB Project. We show that two alternative conceptualizations of "crisis" produce populations that correlate with common ICB dependent variables. Our empirical analyses pay particular attention to variables related to power because they are particularly susceptible to being influenced by these selection effects. 4 Tables, 1 Figure, 44 References. Adapted from the source document.

Crisis escalation to war is a subject of longstanding interest. Case studies, formal models and statistical analysis offer compelling explanations for why some crises escalate to war while others do not. Much less can be said in answer to the following question: where do crises come from in the first place? In this paper, we first introduce the concept of a near crisis following the approach taken over the course of more than four decades by the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project. A near crisis is just below a crisis as defined by ICB with regard to intensity, as it lacks one essential condition for a crisis—higher likelihood of military hostilities. Second, we present a newly developed dataset that contains information on 86 cases in which actors perceived a threat to one or more basic values, along with an awareness of finite time for response to the value threat. We also present simple statistical models comparing (a) near crisis to crisis and (b) crisis to war that show that analyses based on the Near Crisis dataset will contribute to advancement of knowledge.

Crisis escalation to war is a subject of longstanding interest. Case studies, formal models and statistical analysis offer compelling explanations for why some crises escalate to war while others do not. Much less can be said in answer to the following question: where do crises come from in the first place? In this paper, we first introduce the concept of a near crisis following the approach taken over the course of more than four decades by the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project. A near crisis is just below a crisis as defined by ICB with regard to intensity, as it lacks one essential condition for a crisis—higher likelihood of military hostilities. Second, we present a newly developed dataset that contains information on 86 cases in which actors perceived a threat to one or more basic values, along with an awareness of finite time for response to the value threat. We also present simple statistical models comparing (a) near crisis to crisis and (b) crisis to war that show that analyses based on the Near Crisis dataset will contribute to advancement of knowledge.

This study reports the results of a project to construct dyadic-level data from the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) project data collection. The project defines coding rules used in identifying crisis dyads and applies them to identify 766 crisis dyads for the period from 1918 to 1994. This research makes it possible to perform a careful comparison of crisis dyads to dyads involved in militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). The comparison indicates that conflicts that qualify as both a MID and a crisis are significantly more severe than conflicts that do not pass both thresholds. The study offers a robustness analysis of Russett and Oneal's Triangulating Peace (2001) and finds that two of the three Kantian variables theorized to inhibit conflict involvement maintain a relationship similar to the onset of international crises as they do for MIDs. The analysis indicates that economic interdependence is a somewhat weaker inhibitor of crises than MIDs.

Underlying the emerging interest in the role of rivalry processes as antecedents to interstate conflict is the simple idea that conflict within the constraints of rivalry works differently than conflict outside of rivalry. In this article, we inspect the concepts of protracted conflict, as developed within the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) project, and rivalry, and discuss some of their applications to crisis escalation. The protracted conflict and rivalry concepts are not identical, but they do overlap in terms of their emphases on historical context, serious goal incompatibilities, and stakes that might be resolved coercively. Developing an argument for the concept of rivalry possessing fewer limitations than protracted conflict, we proceed to analyze and test the interaction between rivalry and other variables, again making use of an ICB escalation model, when predicting crisis escalation to war. Throughout, our basic question concerns what role interstate rivalry plays in crisis behavior. Are the crises of rivals more lethal than those of non-rivals? If so, can we pinpoint why that is the case? We find that rivalry not only makes escalation more likely, but also significantly interacts with more traditional predictors of conflict, such as capability ratios, the number of actors in a crisis, democracy, and the issues under contention.

AbstractIt has often been said that the closest thing we have to an empirical law in international relations is that democracies do not fight against each other. This study adds to the literature on democratic peace by focusing on the crisis behaviour of democracies and nondemocracies. International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project data are used to conduct a quantitative analysis of states' crisis activity from 1918 to 1988. Strong support emerges for the three hypotheses of the study. First, it is clear that democracies initiate fewer crises than nondemocracies. However, democracies tend to escalate crises to higher levels of severity. Finally, democracies eventually win the crises in which they become involved. The conclusion is that democratic leaders face strong incentives to "select" winnable crises against nondemocratic states because of the audience costs they face, but when the opponent is another democracy, the domestic audience expects leaders to compromise.

Overview of the role of agriculture, livestock and dairying in the economy of Sri Lanka. The project seeks to provide support for the long-term development of dairying in Sri Lanka by assisting in the establishment of an organizational structure for the dairy industry; improving efficiency in production, collecting, chilling, processing, and marketing milk; strengthening the monitoring and evaluation of development projects in the livestock sub-sector. ICB procurement: machinery, equipment, vehicles and materials. Project costs and financing. Statistics, 1986-1995. (Econom. Voorlichtingsdienst)

Construction contract general condition clauses have a major influence on the likelihood and degree of project success. This paper is about comparison between FIDIC and PPA Conditions of Contract. To achieve the objective of the study a desk study has been conducted to identify the similarity and differences of the clauses in FIDIC (1999) and PPA-ICB (2011) conditions of contracts and due to different limitations the study focuses on few of the clauses. Consequently, interview questionnaires are prepared and distributed to Consultants, Contractors, Lawyers, concerned government bodies and individual professionals. Accordingly, from the feedback of the respondent, this paper uses qualitative method of analysis, frequency method, and I come up with my conclusions. The major findings and recommendations of the study are (1) Most of my respondents agreed that FIDIC provisions are the one which clearly indicate the rights, obligations, and remedial rights of each contracting parties.(2) our local conditions of contract are in some way adapted from FIDIC conditions of contract in such a way to keep government , public interests and also to substantiate control of the government financed projects.(3) Our condition of contract has to be upgraded with certain time, because it has some short coming and gap with FIDIC Condition of contract. Finally, I emphasis that because of the limitations faced during the study the conclusion given on this paper are not binding and it is used for educational purpose only. Hence I recommend further detailed study has to be conducted on the topic to clearly conduct holistic conclusions that all could explore a positive output.

Construction contract general condition clauses have a major influence on the likelihood and degree of project success. This paper is about comparison between FIDIC and PPA Conditions of Contract. To achieve the objective of the study a desk study has been conducted to identify the similarity and differences of the clauses in FIDIC (1999) and PPA-ICB (2011) conditions of contracts and due to different limitations the study focuses on few of the clauses. Consequently, interview questionnaires are prepared and distributed to Consultants, Contractors, Lawyers, concerned government bodies and individual professionals. Accordingly, from the feedback of the respondent, this paper uses qualitative method of analysis, frequency method, and I come up with my conclusions. The major findings and recommendations of the study are (1) Most of my respondents agreed that FIDIC provisions are the one which clearly indicate the rights, obligations, and remedial rights of each contracting parties.(2) our local conditions of contract are in some way adapted from FIDIC conditions of contract in such a way to keep government , public interests and also to substantiate control of the government financed projects.(3) Our condition of contract has to be upgraded with certain time, because it has some short coming and gap with FIDIC Condition of contract. Finally, I emphasis that because of the limitations faced during the study the conclusion given on this paper are not binding and it is used for educational purpose only. Hence I recommend further detailed study has to be conducted on the topic to clearly conduct holistic conclusions that all could explore a positive output.

AbstractThis study focuses on forced migration and interstate violence during international crises, as a major security concern with salient implications for international relations stability. The empirical data consists of 229 crises designated as Forced Migration Crises (FMC), identified within the 374 crises of the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) project. The study outlines a framework for analyzing FMC compared with Non-Forced Migration Crises (NFMC), presents an index of Forced Migration Magnitude (FMM), and probes three hypotheses. It points to transformations in forced migration since WWII, compares crises with and without forced migration, and explores patterns of FMM and violence. Results lead to rejection of hypothesis 1 on similarities between FMC and NFMC, supporting hypothesis 2 on considerable diversity between them. Findings on extended scope, strategic locale, enduring forced migration problems and increased violence support hypothesis 3, challenging the placement of forced migration merely as a social or humanitarian domestic concern. Instead, results show a salient increase in FMM, coupled with more severe interstate violence and war, dangerously destabilizing regions worldwide. These patterns require the integration of forced migration within crisis frameworks, as a new research agenda, to understand the nature of forced migration in the 21st century and its impact.

The objective of this paper is to address the methodological process of a teaching strategy for training project management complexity in postgraduate programs. The proposal is made up of different methods —intuitive, comparative, deductive, case study, problem-solving Project-Based Learning— and different activities inside and outside the classroom. This integration of methods motivated the current use of the concept of ―learning strategy‖. The strategy has two phases: firstly, the integration of the competences —technical, behavioral and contextual—in real projects; and secondly, the learning activity was oriented in upper level of knowledge, the evaluating the complexity for projects management in real situations. Both the competences in the learning strategy and the Project Complexity Evaluation are based on the ICB of IPMA. The learning strategy is applied in an international Postgraduate Program —Erasmus Mundus Master of Science— with the participation of five Universities of the European Union. This master program is fruit of a cooperative experience from one Educative Innovation Group of the UPM -GIE-Project-, two Research Groups of the UPM and the collaboration with other external agents to the university. Some reflections on the experience and the main success factors in the learning strategy were presented in the paper.

Research on enduring rivalry has received considerable theoretical and empirical attention in the last few years. As scholars begin to relax assumptions regarding event independence and historical memory, rivalry has emerged to explain dependencies across countries and over time. Despite the evidence to date, some scholars challenge the rivalry distinction and suggest that a stochastic model may explain the distribution of militarized disputes equally as well. However, if the pairings of states that define the list of enduring rivals are fundamentally different than other pairs of states, differences in behavior should be evident in crisis situations. For rival states in crisis, conflict patterns should vary systematically across conflicts. The likelihood of military action should be lower in dispute one compared to dispute six, or eight, or twelve. Moreover, the conflict strategies of rival states in crisis should differ from the conflict strategies of nonrival states in crisis. Using data from the Interstate Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project, the evidence uncovered here supports the conjecture that states in rival contexts tend to behave differently in crises than their nonrival counterparts, although an indirect effect of rivalry is observed as well. Rival states in crisis frequently resort to a military response against nonrivals. The evidence also provides empirical support for the evolutionary model of rivalry, rather than the punctuated equilibrium model.