Suchergebnisse

We introduce and characterize a new measure of aggregate income growth that allows us to give more weight to individuals with lower individual income growth. Our measure includes several important measures of directional mobility encountered in the literature. The empirical application compares the measure of income growth between the USA and Germany, and finds that giving more weight to individuals with lower income growth reverses the ranking.

We develop methods for describing distributions of income growth across individuals and for comparing changes in growth distributions over time. The methods include graphical devices ('income growth profiles') and dominance conditions, and also summary indices, together with associated methods of estimation and inference. Taking an explicitly longitudinal perspective, our approach illuminates clearly who are the gainers and the losers, and also provides distributionally‐sensitive assessments—ones that allow the income growth for different individuals to be weighted differently. Our empirical application shows that the pattern of income growth in Britain over the period 1992–6 was less pro‐poor than that for 1998–2002, and not significantly different from the pattern for 2001–5.

ObjectivesThis article investigates whether economic growth and income level affect revolution attempts and successful revolutions.MethodsThe article conducts a statistical analysis, mainly using panel data logit models, on a data set including 150 countries with time series from 1919 to 2003.ResultsLow short‐term growth increases probabilities of both attempted and successful revolutions. There is some evidence that higher income levels mitigate revolution attempts, but this is not robust and further analysis indicates that any association may stem from oil income more specifically. There is no net effect of income level on successful revolution, but high income seemingly reduces probability of successful revolution more in democracies than in dictatorships. Although revolutions occur more frequently after "J curves" and "decremental deprivation patterns," this is largely due to economic crises and not the more complex growth patterns as hypothesized by, respectively, Davies and Gurr.ConclusionLow short‐term economic growth induces revolutions, whereas the impact of income level is less clear and seemingly contingent on factors such as regime type and source of income.

Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- List of Tables -- Acknowledgements -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Theoretical Underpinnings -- 3 Empirical Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis -- 4 Research Hypothesis and Models Tested -- 5 Variable Selection and Data Development -- 6 Empirical Results -- 7 Conclusions -- Appendix A -- Appendix B -- Appendix C -- Bibliography -- Index

Within a simple New Keynesian model emphasizing forward-looking behavior of private agents, I evaluate optimal nominal income growth targeting versus optimal inflation targeting. When the economy is mainly subject to shocks that do not involve monetary policy trade-offs for society, inflation targeting is preferable. Otherwise, nominal income growth targeting may be superior because it induces inertial policy making, which improves the inflation–output-gap trade-off. Somewhat paradoxically, inflation targeting may be relatively less favorable the more society dislikes inflation, and the more persistent are the effects of inflation-generating shocks.