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Using a patient decision aid before a primary care visit can increase lung cancer screening of Veterans, according to a new randomized controlled trial. For nearly 10 years, national guidelines have recommended lung cancer screening for older people with a smoking history who are healthy enough for treatment if cancer is detected. However, in some […]

Today we have three new essays and our first piece of interactive content: a 20‐​question quiz on all things globalization.

This October, APHA exhibited at New Scientist Live, one of the largest festivals of science in the UK. Learn more about how we inspired visitors to help us to protect animal and plant health on our interactive stand.

FiveThirtyEight is looking for a savvy Visual Journalist to cover U.S. politics and elections. The ideal candidate will be eager to contribute in a number of capacities — through daily graphics production, collaboration on reported stories and work on our "big swing" interactives. We're looking for a web developer and designer who can exercise strong […]

FiveThirtyEight is seeking a collaborative and creative Senior Visual Journalist to join our data and interactives team. Senior Visual Journalists are design leaders in the FiveThirtyEight newsroom. Though they serve primarily as individual contributors, they also amplify the work of the team by mentoring more junior visual journalists, thoughtfully giving and receiving feedback and leading […]

I've gotten jaded by getting regular emails alerting me to the fact a new Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast or Monthly Economic Update (the latest just out, here). In addition, DoR has substantially expanded its interactive data visualizations here. But after a little thought, I really have to say it's been a sea change in openness […]

At least 5 sub-Saharan African nations are due to hold presidential or general elections in 2018. Check out our expert briefings and reading material on our interactive elections resource map.
The post 2018: Elections in Africa first appeared on Africa Research Institute.
The post 2018: Elections in Africa appeared first on Africa Research Institute.

While researchers often point to the relevance of their research, economic models and econometric methods are typically inaccessible to a wider audience. Gabriel Ahlfeldt explains how interactive dashboards represent a useful, yet underutilised, tool to enhance the accessibility of quantitative research and increase its impact, showing how a new, massive house-price index he has developed … Continued

The value of generative AI is often dismissed after it fails to produce coherent academic responses to single prompts. Mark Carrigan, argues that careless use of generative AI fails to engage with more interactive ways in which it can used to supplement academic work. The release of OpenAI's ChatGPT 3.5 almost a year ago inaugurated … Continued

Vanessa Brown Calder


Late last year, Congress passed the Pregnant Workers Fairness Act (PWFA) as part of the sprawling 2023 Consolidated Appropriations Act. The PWFA requires that employers provide reasonable accommodation to pregnant workers, and in June, the Act went into effect.
Ensuring pregnant workers are accommodated appears a worthy goal, and Democrats and many Republicans supported the legislation. Nonetheless, there are some reasons to worry about the legislation's effects.
Pregnancy discrimination is already illegal due to the 1964 Pregnancy Discrimination Act, but the PWFA goes a step further and requires that employers provide accommodations to pregnant workers. In this way, PWFA is similar to the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA).
The PWFA even uses the same "reasonable accommodation" definition as the ADA. Under this definition, reasonable accommodation requires employers and employees to engage in an "interactive process" to determine what constitutes an acceptable accommodation to the employee. It is subsequently unlawful for the employer to accept an alternative arrangement.
The similarity between the substance of the PWFA and ADA is significant because evidence suggests that the ADA's reasonable accommodation language has harmed, rather than helped, its target population. For example, research suggests that the ADA reduced the employment of disabled men and women, with one study estimating ADA reduced employment rates for men with disabilities by 7.2 percentage points.
Additional research finds further adverse effects on employment. One study finds that the passage of the ADA was "associated with lower relative earnings" and "slightly lower labor force participation rates" for people with disabilities, and more recent research finds that the ADA reduced the firing of disabled workers but also reduced disabled workers' ability to find a job.
What drove these unintended effects? One study indicates that the reasonable accommodation requirement in the ADA is particularly problematic and resulted in initial employment declines, with the requirement producing an estimated 10 percent decline in disabled employment in the years following its enactment. This is especially worrisome given PWFA includes the same reasonable accommodation requirement. Yet another study examining the ADA 20 years after its passage concluded that "unclear expectations on what constitutes appropriate accommodations for people with disabilities is likely having a chilling effect on the employment prospects of the disabled population… Reflecting an all too common irony in social policy, the ADA might be having the exact opposite effect of the intent of the legislation."
Despite ADA's initial effects, employment has been ticking up and unemployment has been ticking down for disabled workers in recent years. Unfortunately, that positive development is unlikely to have much to do with ADA, which is now more than thirty years past. Instead, improvements in the broader post‐​pandemic labor market recovery and the increasing availability of flexible or remote jobs are likely driving this effect. For example, remote jobs allow people with disabilities to avoid lengthy or inaccessible commutes, manage their work environment, and meet medication or other medical needs privately, among other advantages.
Ideally the PWFA will not result in adverse employment effects for pregnant workers, but evidence on the consequences of ADA suggest uncertainty. For pregnant workers, policies that support a strong labor market and permit flexible and remote work are a much better bet to increase opportunity and improve work life.

David J. Bier









The Cato Institute is launching a new online game called the Green Card Game. Americans will—for the first time—see firsthand what it's like to try to get a green card, or permanent residence, in the United States. The game's goal is to show people the massive difficulties that immigrants can face in finding a path to U.S. citizenship. Few people realize that legal immigration is not just a matter of putting your name down on a list. America's legal immigration system is nearly impossible, and this game will help people realize why.
You can play it at the​Green​Car​dGame​.com.
Background on the game: The Cato Institute developed the game to educate the public about America's restrictive immigration system. It relies on the actual rules, regulations, and practices of the legal immigration system as much as possible. The game allows people to understand in a direct and interactive way how closed the U.S. legal immigration process truly is. The time, the costs, and the likelihood of failure are all far higher than most Americans believe. The game also shows how much luck, subjectivity, and other factors outside of someone's control affect a person's outcome. A country of birth can matter more than a $200,000 job offer. Adjudicators have massive leeway in deciding cases, and who hears your case can matter more than the strength of your case.
People may wrongly conclude that we altered the odds in some way, but the game is based on my deeply sourced report: Why Legal Immigration Is Nearly Impossible. The game itself cites sources for its information on the law, regulations, and probabilities of denial. In fact, the game is much easier to "win" than in real life. Players will eventually discover which countries to avoid, which occupations to select, and what categories to try for. It's easier to answer "correctly" than to fit into the correct circumstances in real life. Saying "I am persecuted" is a lot easier than proving it. Saying "I have a job offer" is a lot easier than finding one while fleeing from a war or socialist dictator.
The premise of the game: You are outside of the United States. You've never been there. You don't have any U.S. government connections. You have no U.S. relatives (since nearly every American playing the game could theoretically "qualify" through their U.S. citizen parents, children, or spouse).
How to play: The first thing that players will do is input the rest of their background: country, occupation, religion, education, savings, destination, etc. Players can either play "as themselves" just from a country other than the United States (using their education, job, savings, religion, etc.) or they can use a background and answer the questions based on what you think might make sense for an immigrant or a mix of both. Every decision can matter later in the game.







Check out the game here.
Time and cost outcomes in the game: Here's an example from the basic eligibility section. Most Americans would have to answer "some" to the above question.







You then have the chance to ask for a waiver of the vaccine requirement, but you've already cost yourself time.







If you ask for a waiver, it costs you another year of waiting time, and your costs increase. You're already in the whole $930. The wheel of bureaucratic luck will decide your fate.







Most players will end up with a screen that looks like this.







The Green Card Game is a game. It's not legal advice.

Thomas A. Berry and Nicholas DeBenedetto


In the Fall of 2020, public schools in Springfield, Missouri implemented mandatory "equity" training. All employees of the school district were required to attend a session, not just teachers. The employees were told that if they did not participate, the school district would dock their pay and they could lose necessary professional development credit.
The training topics included "Oppression, White Supremacy, and Systemic Racism" and tools on "how to become Anti‐​Racist educators." Training sessions included several interactive exercises that required participants to share reactions to videos, write down answers to instructor questions, answer multiple‐​choice questions, and fill out charts related to concepts presented by the training.
Brooke Henderson and Jennifer Lumley, two non‐​teacher employees, strongly disagreed with many of the views advanced by the school district through the training sessions. These sessions taught that believing in colorblindness is a form of white supremacy; that systemic racism is "woven into the very foundation of American culture, society, and laws"; and that American institutions all contribute to or reinforce "the oppression of marginalized social groups while elevating dominant social groups." Participants were also told that being sufficiently "anti‐​racist" means not remaining "silent or inactive" because doing so constitutes "white silence"—a form of white supremacy.
During training sessions, employees were required to answer questions and give responses affirming these assertions. For example, some of the questions presented two answers, only one of which was correct in the eyes of the school district. In order to advance through the modules and receive credit, participants had to give the school district‐​approved answer. To complete their training, Henderson and Lumley both gave many answers that they did not actually believe.
Henderson and Lumley, represented by the Southeastern Legal Foundation, filed suit and raised several claims under the First Amendment including compelled speech, content and viewpoint discrimination, and unconstitutional conditions of employment. But the district court held in favor of the school district and ruled that Henderson and Lumley would have to pay the school district over $300,000 in legal fees and sanctions.
Henderson and Lumley have appealed to the Eighth Circuit, and Cato has filed an amicus brief supporting that appeal. Our brief focuses on two aspects of the district court's decision that raise substantial First Amendment issues. First, the court's analysis of the plaintiffs' compelled speech claim conflicts with the Supreme Court's foundational decision in West Virginia Board of Education v. Barnette (1943). Barnette makes clear that a person suffers a First Amendment injury at the moment he or she is required to affirm a belief to which he or she objects. Plaintiffs repeatedly had to provide the "correct" response and profess agreement with the school district's ideas about equity, white supremacy, and racism, even though they strongly disagreed.
Second, the district court's decision to award attorneys' fees and sanctions violates the First Amendment right of the plaintiffs to participate in public‐​interest litigation. The district court justified its exorbitant award by referencing the​plaintiffs' desire to advance a political cause in this litigation. But the Supreme Court explicitly held in NAACP v. Button (1963) and In re Primus (1978) that advancing a cause through good‐​faith public‐​interest litigation is an important First Amendment right, not something to be punished. Penalizing litigants for exercising their First Amendment freedoms will only chill future good‐​faith litigation.
If allowed to stand, the district court's opinion would invite government employers to undermine key First Amendment principles and would chill legitimate public‐​interest litigation. The Eighth Circuit should correct these errors and reverse the decision of the district court.

Colleen Hroncich


It's hard to believe it's already "back to school" season. But the displays in every store are impossible to miss. This year's back to school experience could be a new one for many teachers, parents, and students as they have the chance to choose their own educational path for the first time. Finding high‐​quality resources is likely top of mind for many parents and teachers. That's where izzit​.org can come in handy.
izzit​.org is a non‐​profit that provides educators with engaging educational resources designed to help students develop critical thinking skills. I first learned about izzit​.org in 2015 through our speech and debate league, and I'm amazed at how many new resources are available every time I visit the website. Happily, these resources are available at no cost to anyone who is interested in teaching or learning—parents (including homeschoolers), grandparents, teachers, tutors, librarians, and more.
The video lessons were my first exposure to izzit​.org. Most of them are geared toward students in sixth grade and older. Subject areas include Business & Economics, Career Technical Education, Constitution & Civics, and Social Studies & Humanities. There is a special subset of videos aimed at elementary‐​aged students that features "Pups of Liberty." (I just watched my first Pups of Liberty episode, The Dog‐​claration of Independence, and was quite amused by Spaniel Adams, Paul Ruffere, the Minute Mutts, and the Red Cats.)
In keeping with izzit.org's educational mission, these aren't just standalone videos. There are short, online comprehension quizzes students can take at the end of each video. Some of the videos are part of Teaching Units that include teacher's guides. There are also Learning Modules, which are online, interactive collections that cover about a week's worth of material. Teachable Moments are short—typically five minutes or less—videos that focus on one topic and can be easily added to other lessons. Since the website allows you to sort by topic and grade level, it's easy for educators to find the content that will work best for a specific lesson.
More recently, izzit​.org has expanded to offer full courses. Civics Fundamentals is hosted by Judge Douglas Ginsburg, a senior judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. He answers the 100 questions in the U.S. Citizenship & Immigration Services naturalization test with two‐​minute videos that include an explanation of each answer. The course is supplemented with additional materials, including a Jeopardy‐​style game and flash cards.
izzit​.org also boasts a first‐​in‐​the‐​nation career readiness course—Workforce Innovation Now, or W.I.N.. This unique course blends financial literacy, employability, skill mastery, and work‐​based learning experiences. It's divided into nine units that include videos, quizzes, essay prompts, and other student assignments (including resume‐​drafting guidance).
To help teachers make the most of the incredible izzit​.org resources, the website includes free Professional Development (PD) webinars. Teachers can receive certificates of participation for each PD they complete.
In addition to the video resources, izzit​.org offers two current events lessons each school day. The lessons feature articles from various major news sources to encourage debate and critical thinking. Typically one is easier to read and the other is more challenging. The articles may include uncomfortable or unpopular topics. The goal is for students to read, process, debate, and think critically about these issues. The lessons include questions to help drive discussions.
Whether you're a full‐​time teacher, a homeschooler, or a parent looking for additional learning opportunities for your children, izzit​.org is an amazing resource. As I really explored the site for this post, I realized we missed out on some great content by not using it more. So learn from my mistake—and check it out today!

Did I just turn CDSN into a verb?  Sure, why not.  We had a tremendous week at our second in-person Summer Institute (see last year's summary here).  I am still jazzed after a week of informative presentations from our various speakers, of scheming by our participants in the simulation, of sharp insights from the participants who came from all over the Canadian defence and security community, and of amazing work behind the scenes by our CDSN team.  Group pic after DND briefingsIt starts with the participants.  The original idea that animated the grant in the first place was to bring together people from military, from the other parts of the government, and from academia (would love to have journalists as well) attend a week-long seminar/workshop/institute/whatever to learn from experts but as/more importantly, learn from each other by seeing the same stuff from different perspectives via the varying lenses of folks in the community. Plus we wanted to facilitate networking that bridge the various divides.  And, yeah, it was really sweet to see it come to fruition this week.  Last year's cohort was wonderful, but was not nearly as representative of the defence and security community.  We still have work to do to include folks from Public Safety, Global Affairs, and other departments.  Our presenters included CDSN co-directors and other Canadian academics, folks from the policy community, CAF officers, American academics, journalists, and a pollster.  They brought much experience and insights to our discussions, provoking many questions along the way.  Most of the week was at Carleton, but we did foray into downtown one morning to meet with folks at the National Defence Headquarters.  There we meet with folks from defence intelligence, the deputy commander of the Royal Canadian Navy, and some of the top officials on the civilian side of the Department of National Defence.  With Chatham House rule in effect, I can't say what individuals said, but I can say that most of the folks we met along the way were quite open.  The Valens Simulation ended in tears and dollars?  The scenario had disinformation and arctic sovereignty in play with three teams role-playing the US, Canada, and Meta.  Meta got huge profits as it continued to spew disinformation, while the US-Canadian relationship was torn asunder as they failed to reach an agreement.  Daveed Garenstein-Ross, the head of Valens, had to wake up early and re-write the ending presentation in light of unexpected conflict.  This sim had multiple purposes--to use some of the skills over the course of the week, to get a taste of the strengths and limitations of simulations, to provide a more interactive experience, and to create small cross-sectoral teams.I am very grateful to the HQ team of Melissa, Sherry, Racheal, Carelove, and Ayshia for doing all of the hard work.  All I did was make cookies and introduce people and ask some pesky questions along the way.  Colonel Cathy Blue, who was our Visiting Defence Fellow for the past year, was so crucial.  Her first week with us last year was during the previous Summer Institute, so she gave us great feedback on what worked best and what did not, and then she helped plan this year's SI.  More importantly, she is an amazing recruiter, so she helped us reach our goal of a nice mix of policy, military, and academic folks.  She couldn't join us for this year's as she has an important job now of Commanding the cadets at the Royal Military College.  If you are interested in the Summer Institute, we will be putting out ads and accepting applications in early 2024, and you can check out more info at our website: https://www.cdsn-rcds.com/summerinstitute  Below are a variety of pictures from the week.  Again, Carelove took better ones, but I am quick to upload mine ;)Once again in the Board of Governors roomOur policy process panel with Kristine Ennis-Heise of DND, retired man of many jobs Vincent Rigby, andCDSN Co-Director Alan OkrosValens introduces the week's simulation with Libby at their hq and Daveed Garenstein-Rossin OttawaMurray Brewster, Amanda Connolly (on zoom), and Captain (N) Kelly Williamson on the media and Canadian defenceMy first slide for the panel on Canadian civil-military relations with Andrea Lane, Risa Brooks,and myselfCo-director Will Greaves, Michel Roy of CSE, and Saira Bano of Thompson Riversdiscussing variety of threats facing CanadaStephanie Carvin zooming from Oshawa talking intel with ...Battle Rhythm co-host Artur WilczynskiMuch fun at our midweek Networking ReceptionCharlotte and Andrea enjoying the picture takingOur partner for this event was Women in International Security-Canada.  WIIS-C is a founding member of the CDSN, andI greatly enjoyed hanging out with their new teamYou know it is a good reception when a largesegment of the group stick around after the eventat the hotel bar.Grace Scoppio of Royal Military College, co-director Andrea Charron, and Conseils de Sécurité host Sarah Myriam Martin-Brûlédiscuss collaborative researchCo-Director JC Boucher, Captain (N) KellyWilliamson, and Nik Nanos of the Nanos Research firmdiscuss Canadian public opinion on defenceCo-director Phil Lagassé looks to be in somepain as he discusses defence procurementTwas really great to have ADM (Mat) Troy Crosbyand the always natty Kim Nossal to discuss defence procurementBrandon Behlendorf presented red-teaming to usAlliance dynamics with Carleton poli sci prof Aaron Ettinger, DND NATO officer Ashley McCauleyand Co-Director Stéphane RousselThe end of the simulation with US and Canada breaking up and Meta profiting hugely.

Muhammad Zia Mehmood is a PhD candidate in the Business and Public Policy Program at the Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley. In his job market paper, Zia studies the demand for and potential of business trainings provided over text messages to impact outcomes for micro-entrepreneurs in Kenya. This study was supported by CEGA's Development Economics Challenge initiative. This blog post was originally published on the Econ That Really Matters blog.A small business welder at work. Credit: Adobe StockIntroductionSmall businesses form the economic backbone of low-income countries and strengthening these enterprises is fundamental to alleviating poverty. Poor management practices is a major factor constraining firm productivity in these contexts, and over $1 billion is spent annually to address this constraint by providing business trainings to entrepreneurs. However, most of these are conventional, in-person, classroom-style trainings, which are expensive and hard to scale, and can exclude those who are unable to participate in person. Due to their low costs, scalability, and reach, phone-based trainings are gaining popularity as a potential solution, but there is limited evidence on whether remotely provided trainings are effective for micro-entrepreneurs in low-income settings.In my job market paper, I study the demand for and potential of text message-based business trainings using a field experiment in Kenya, in which access to an SMS-based training was randomized across 4,700 micro-entrepreneurs. I estimate short- and longer-run impacts using phone-based surveys conducted three months (Midline: 307 observations) and twelve months (Endline: 2,780 observations) after the intervention. I also elicit ex ante predictions for 12-month treatment effects from researchers through the Social Science Predictions Platform (SSPP), to assess whether the main findings depart from existing priors. Finally, I measure demand for the trainings through Take-It-Or-Leave-It (TIOLI) offers and the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) willingness-to-pay elicitation method for a subset of the sample.Context and InterventionAccording to a 2016 nationwide survey of small businesses in Kenya, 90 percent of micro-entrepreneurs had never received any type of business training. This was reflected in their business practices: More than three-fourths did not advertise any of their products, over two-thirds didn't keep any business records, and less than a tenth accounted for prices set by their competitors when choosing their own prices.I partnered with a local firm specializing in digital content development and dissemination to implement an SMS-based training aimed at addressing these management gaps and others. Available in English and Swahili, the training modules covered best practices, including marketing, advertising, pricing, record-keeping, and stock management. The content was structured around stories about the decisions of hypothetical micro-entrepreneurs in different scenarios. Users accessed the trainings through self-paced engagement with an interactive chat-bot, which sent bite-sized chunks spanning about 150 text messages. The entire training could be completed in five to seven hours, and all content was retained indefinitely on users' phones. Weekly text reminders were sent to those who stopped engaging, and these reminders stopped if engagement was resumed or after two consecutive months of inactivity.The primary sample for the study was sourced from a list of micro-entrepreneurs compiled by my implementation partner and a local microfinance institution. Half of the study sample consists of female micro-entrepreneurs, and roughly 45 percent is based in rural areas. The average individual was about 35 years old, and had completed almost twelve years of education (high school level).Figure 1: Screenshots of user engagement with the chatbot. Note: This figure shows screenshots of interactions with the SMS-based chatbot as it pushes out content to users. In this context, most micro-entrepreneurs set prices just based on their buying costs, without accounting for prices of their competitors, so the content pushes them to change their pricing strategy. Credit: Muhammad Zia MehmoodResultsThree months after the intervention, I find that the SMS training increased knowledge and adoption of best practices by 0.20 and 0.33 standard deviations, respectively. I also find large positive, but statistically insignificant, effects on business performance in the overall sample, and significant positive effects for younger (below-median) micro-entrepreneurs on sales (109 percent increase), profits (38 percent increase), and business survival (11.6 percentage points increase). These positive effects for younger entrepreneurs are driven by higher engagement with the content, and larger effects on time spent on business, and loan amounts applied for and received.However, these positive results dissipate in the longer run; twelve months after the intervention, I see no effects on knowledge and adoption of best practices, as well as business sales, profits and survival. Additionally, the positive effects on business outcomes observed for younger entrepreneurs at three months disappear after twelve months. The lack of long-term impact was likely driven by micro-entrepreneurs abandoning all interactions with the content within the first few months of the intervention. The survival curve in Figure 2 shows how all cumulative aggregate engagement with the platform ended by May 2022 — five months into the intervention.Figure 2: Survival curve of interactions with chatbot. Note: This figure illustrates how interactions with the chatbot were distributed throughout the study period. The plot shows reverse cumulative engagement over time; for example, it shows that 80% of all the interactions with the chat-bot throughout the course of the study, had ended by 4/1/2022. The shaded areas represent the time-spans during which the Midline and Endline surveys were conducted. Credit: Muhammad Zia MehmoodFigure 3: Predictions vs observed treatment effects. Note: This figure shows how predicted treatment effects for the Endline compare with observed Midline and Endline effects. Error bars represent 90% confidence intervals. Credit: Muhammad Zia MehmoodFigure 3 illustrates how these results compare with predictions for 12-month treatment effects elicited ex ante through the SSPP. I find that SSPP researchers overestimated the engagement levels, both in terms of the proportion of the treatment group that would start engaging with the content (50 percent vs 30 percent) and how much training content the average user would complete after twelve months (40 percent vs 7 percent). Furthermore, predictions for the 12-month treatment effects on knowledge and adoption of best practices are somewhat similar to observed effects at three months, but significantly overestimated in light of observed 12-month treatment effects. Effects on business performance offer a similar story: SSPP predictions for the 12-month treatment effects on sales and profits are similar in magnitude to effects observed at three months (albeit statistically insignificant), but they grossly overestimate the effects at twelve months.Additionally, notwithstanding the low engagement and lack of longer-run effects, I find positive demand for SMS-based trainings among micro-entrepreneurs; both methods of elicitation — the TIOLI offers and the BDM exercise — reveal that individuals are willing to pay a small amount for an additional SMS-based training, suggesting that they value access to the content.Policy ImplicationsThese results indicate that SMS-based trainings are unlikely to improve outcomes for micro-entrepreneurs in the long run, despite their growing popularity in low-income and less accessible settings. These findings also highlight the lack of engagement with trainings as a major challenge that limits the potential of remotely-provided information-based support.Further, the forecasting exercise reveals that social science researchers overestimate the potential of SMS-based trainings to improve outcomes for micro-entrepreneurs, and the findings from this study are thus contrary to priors. Updating these priors is important because policymakers and practitioners often rely on social science experts to make decisions about how to invest in remote, information-based support programs.Lastly, the results on willingness to pay suggest that engagement with the content might not reflect the actual demand for SMS-based trainings, pointing towards possible behavioral drivers constraining engagement. To capitalize on the full potential of digital content delivery in low-income settings, further research is needed to shed light on how to encourage engagement with remotely provided content.Short Messages Fall Short for Micro-Entrepreneurs: Experimental Evidence from Kenya was originally published in CEGA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.