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Since the end of the Cold War, scholars have increasingly turned their attention to examining the link between depletion of renewable resources & conflict. Within this environmental security literature, academic opinion varies across a wide spectrum with some predicting a dark future of environmental "resource wars" both between & within nations, while others question the extent to which environmental variables play any role in inducing conflict. This paper builds on the findings of previous case & statistical studies & presents a cross-national, time-series multivariate analysis of the relationship between militarized international disputes & the environmental variables most commonly cited in the qualitative literature-freshwater, soil, fish, & population. These environmental variables are tested individually & in combination, while controlling for other conflict-generating factors. The general finding is that states suffering from greater levels of environmental scarcity are more likely to be involved in a militarized international dispute. 2 Tables, 3 Figures, 46 References. Adapted from the source document.

Governments are concerned about the dangers posed by ballistic missiles. However, there is almost no theoretical or empirical scholarship on ballistic missiles. This article presents and tests the conventional wisdom that the spread of ballistic missiles makes conflict more likely. Original data on ballistic missiles and on crisis initiation is collected, and analysis using a variety of statistical models is conducted. It is found that among all directed dyads from 1946 to 2007, potential challengers possessing ballistic missiles are significantly more likely to initiate international crises. Further, potential targets armed with ballistic missiles are significantly less likely to be challenged. Crises are less likely to escalate when targets are armed with missiles. The results are obtained after accounting for several control variables. Analysis reveals that the findings are not affected by possible endogeneity bias. The analysis also reveals complex interactive effects between ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons on the onset of international crises. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Inc., copyright holder.]

"Issues in Data Collection: International Conflict" published on by Oxford University Press.

This article explores the attitudes of Canadian officials towards international conflict mediation and towards the potential for greater official Canadian involvement in the field. The study is based on extensive interviews with Canadian officials who have been involved in mediation at various points over a 20-year period. It finds that Canada, and particularly the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT), has taken a largely ad hoc approach to its involvement in the field. Prior to the initiation of this study, there had been no attempt to develop an institutional capacity in this field within DFAIT or to keep track of the personnel involved in such experiences, much less to develop a trained cadre of such individuals. This stands in contrast to the efforts of countries that have prioritized mediation as a foreign policy activity, such as some Scandinavian countries and Switzerland. Many of those interviewed pointed to these countries as potential models for Canada in this field, but it became apparent in discussions that most of those interviewees were not necessarily well-informed as to what these countries have done; there was just a general sense that these countries do it well and that Canada could learn from them. Moreover, none of the interviewees demonstrated significant familiarity with the vast literature on mediation. Those interviewed made recommendations as to how Canada might develop its official mediation capacities so as to play a more active and focused role in this field. Adapted from the source document.

"Population Aging and International Conflict" published on by Oxford University Press.

The concept of international affinity—albeit under different names—captures a central place in international relations research. This study examines how different types of affinity affect the likelihood of conflict between states. The authors discuss different types of affinities as these appear in the realist and liberal paradigms. They offer a social networks conception of structural affinity—the concept of structural equivalence—which reflects the similarity of international ties across a set of different networks. They test the hypotheses derived from these paradigms, using both existing measures of affinity and their own structural equivalence measures. Their findings suggest that (1) strategic affinity has a consistent dampening effect on the probability of dyadic conflict, (2) trade-related affinity does consistently affect the probability of dyadic conflict, and (3) intergovernmental organization-related affinity has a negative impact on conflict, mostly in the twentieth century.

International Conflict: Logic and Evidence is based on the premise that proper understanding of international conflict - a necessary prerequisite for achieving peace - can come only from logic and evidence, not from opinion and anecdote. This groundbreaking book introduces students to international conflict's key theories and empirical research. Throughout the text, author Stephen L. Quackenbush gives examples that enable readers to see the theory in real-world events, and provides the data from the most recent research. Covering the entire process of interstate war, from causes of conflict to escalation, conduct, resolution, and recurrence, the book provides readers with a fascinating, thorough study that will help them understand how international conflict works.

Formulae are presented, based on L. F. Richardson's formulae for establishing the probable outcome of arms races designed to estimate the probable degree of escalation of internat'l conflicts. The variables in the formulae include the perceptions by the parties of the magnitude of their respective nat'l interests involved in the conflict, the forces immediately available to each, the costs of the hostilities in money & men, the world pressures for peace, the military forces of the parties & their actual & potential allies likely to be available to each in the long run, & the vulnerability of each to destruction if escalation continues. Estimates of the magnitude of these variables are made in 45 conflict situations since WWI, in 9 of which there were no military hostilities, in 20 of which military hostilities occurred but did not escalate, & in 16 of which military hostilities escalated, in 2 cases to global war. Application of these magnitudes indicated that the formulae had considerable predictive value for those conflicts which had come to an end, & predictions were offered for those in progress, on the assumption, made by Richardson, that statesmen act on the basis of traditional images & 'do not stop to think.' A brief legal analysis of these 45 situations as found by the League of Nations, the UN, & other internat'l bodies & jurists indicated that the legal obligations of the parties had less influence on their actions than the factors included in the formulae. Perceptions of might seemed to be more influential in internat'l relations, during this period, than rights under internat'l law. It is suggested that world opinion should increasingly demand clarification & observance of the obligations which nations have accepted in the UN Charter & other sources of internat'l law, & that gov's should recognize that such observance is in their nat'l interest. Modified AA.