Suchergebnisse

The article deals with the proper identification & localization of the effect of election predictions on voting behavior. As a revision of the "traditional bandwagon concept" stemming from the 1930's & 1940's, which is still in use despite its conceptual fallacy, new lines of thought are merged into the definition of the "modern bandwagon concept:" the relative & subjective bandwagon effects, together with the relative & subjective underdog effects & the slack effect, constitute the declaration effect as a resultant. Using matrices based upon party preferences, upon exposure to, perception of & interpretation of election predictions, & upon possible voting behavior, the several effects are localized. The real existence of effects is briefly discussed in relation to favorable or neutralizing conditions from the fields of pol'al sci & of mass COMM's. A warning is issued, on methodological & pol'al grounds, against too quick an acceptance of US res findings as valid for the Netherlands. IPSA.

The results of a res project on small local-pressure groups in Amsterdam, treated within D. Easton's (A SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL LIFE, New York, NY: 1967) theoretical framework for the analysis of pol'al systems. The municipality of Amsterdam was considered as the pol'al system & the rest of the Netherlands constituted the parameters of the system. The main analytical category used was 'demands,' because the concept 'support' caused considerable problems of operationalization. The activities of the groups are analyzed in 4 phases: feedback-stimuli, feedback-response, feedback-information, & output reaction. In the 1st phase a main distinction was introduced between groups which emerged as a result of an output of the authorities (the intra-genetic), & groups which emerged as a result of a situation in the parameters of the system (the extra-genetic). The 2nd phase includes the interpretation of the stimuli & the resulting formulation of demands. In the 3rd phase a distinction was made between indirect information feedback by means of activities such as demonstrations & appearance in the media of COMM; & direct information feedback by means of a direct contact with the authorities. The 4th phase was mainly dedicated to the behavior of the authorities. The main result of the res was the distinction between intra- & extra-genetic groups. This distinction was important for the following characteristics of the groups: intra-genetic groups more often appoint one man as the spokesman of the group; they consider more the people of certain parts of Amsterdam as concerned by their demands; they are more active in approaching the media of COMM; & are more often approached by authorities. Extra-genetic groups consider more the whole pop of Amsterdam or even the Netherlands as concerned by their demands; are more often related to pol'al parties; have less formal responsibility to the concerned people or members; & feel themselves less tied to the wishes of the people concerned. 5 Figures, 18 Tables. Modified HA.

It seems that the demonstrations on the Binnenhof in the Hague do not in general affect the views held by those for whose benefit the demonstrations are held: the members of the Second Chamber of the States General. This conclusion is drawn from a small-scale investigation of the effect of such demonstrations, which was undertaken by a number of pol'al sci students of the Free U of Amsterdam. The possible effects of 14 demonstrations held in the parliamentary yr 1968-1969 & in late 1969, were studied. In only one case was there evidence of influence on a number of Second Chamber members: the demonstrations held by young workers on Jun 26 & Nov 1, 1969. These demonstrations differed from most others in the mass participation, the careful preparation & org, the extensive coverage in the news media & in the wide support given to them, including that of trade unions. 4 Tables, 1 Diagram. HA.

Data are presented on 3 groups of factors in the pol'al recruitment of Dutch members of Parliament sitting in the Spr of 1968: (a) pol'al orientation & activity of fathers & other members of the representative's fam; (b) the development of soc & pol'al interests during the member's younger yrs; & (c) the cursus honorum through which members moved before nomination to Parliament. Within each of these groups the following tables are presented: (1) Fam milieu: degree of interest & pol'al activity of fathers & mothers of members; fam relationship between soc stratification & pol'al activity of father & other fam relations; degree of pol'al heredity in pol'al choice; the relation between pol'al identification & pol'al activity in parental circles & crossing of traditional party lines by members; diff's between the parties in pol'al activity of members' fam's. (2) Activities during youth: province & type of community in which members grew up; members' assessments of factors which influenced their pol'al choice; activity in various types of youth assoc's; extent of membership in certain traditional student fraternities & other student assoc's; party vote at first election in which member participated; age at which they began to show interest in pol'al office. (3) Cursus Honorum: membership of party executives at central & local level; membership of lower representative bodies; experience in other pol'al roles; factors in nomination; assessment of importance of certain desirable qualities in a member of Parliament. Certain diff's between Upper & Lower House, & between the major Dutch parties are summarized. These diff's can be partly attributed to diff's in the instit'al arrangement of the 2 Houses (eg, diff's in size, in nomination & election procedures, in demand on members' time, in party composition), & partly to historical & org'al diff's between the Dutch parties. IPSA.

Using data on fathers & parental grandfathers from a largescale survey held among all members of either House of the Dutch Parliament sitting in 1968, the soc background of members of Parliament is traced both re occup & soc stratification. The data show very little stability over 3 generations in occup'al background, & considerable verticle mobility. For the larger parties & for the 2 Houses as a whole, an index is constructed showing the average ranking of fathers & grandfathers on a prestige status scale. It appears that members of the Lower House come from higher soc milieus as measured by the ranking of fathers than members of the Upper House. This is particularly true of socialist members in the Lower House who score higher than either socialist Upper House members, or Lower House members of the 2 larger religious parties. Extensive data on the denomination of parents, grandparents & husbands or wives of members allow some insight into the extent to which traditional religious cleavage lines continue to determine pol'al recruitment. A diagram is presented to show the degree of traditional congruence between pol'al choice & religious denomination (or sub-denomination) & the extent to which 2 new anti-system parties (Democrats '66 & Farmer's Party) have successfully challenged the traditional divisions. On the whole, the close alignment between religious adherence & pol'al choice persists, both when measured by formal church association & actual church attendance. But liberals come from circles which are more traditionally identified with secular poi than members of the socialist party. In the latter case, the pot of 'breaking through' traditional religious boundaries materialized in some deliberate recruitment of orthodox-Protestant & Catholic members. But the traditional left-right division remains evident even when measured by the faith of parents & grandparents; a process of secularization is more characteristic for members of the non-confessional parties than a deliberate crossing of traditional pol'al boundaries by Catholics or orthodox-Protestants. IPSA.

An attempt to give a classification of internal violence, occurring in 40 developing countries, in order to provide a 'structure of violence' for each country in the period 1950-67, & to r this structure to the changes in the real per capita income of these countries. For the collection of the various items of internal violence, Keesings Historical Archives (Dutch version) was used. They were classified as follows: (1) Diffuse SP unrest (strikes, demonstrations, riots, etc, in which people were wounded, killed &/or property was destroyed). (2) Coup d'etat-like activities. (3) Small guerrillas in the countryside & clusters of (anticolonial) violent actions in the towns. (4) Limited civil or anti-colonial war. (5) 'Endemic' guerrillas. (6) Situation of serious anarchy. (7) .1Pol'al' pogroms of total civil or anticolonial war. A 'profile of violence' for each country was constructed. In the Latin Amer couutries coup d'etat activities prevailed; in several African countries these activities became numerous some yrs after independence was obtained; in the Middle Eastern countries all types of violence occurred; & in the ethnically complicated Asian countries, small & endemic guerrillas frequently arose. A relation between types & extent of internal violence, & level of nat'l income & its yr'ly per capita growth could not be proved. The material suggests that nat'l income & changes therein as such, may not be very interesting variables. Distribution of income & changes therein might be more relevant. The difficulty, however, is to obtain reliable data on these variables. A number of suggestions are made. Modified IPSA.

It is assumed that it is the purpose of a theory to explain something. An explanation is an answer to a question of the linguistic form 'why 7'; its logical structure is of the following form: L1,....Ln That is, on the basis of a certain set of postuC1 ....Cn lates, or 'laws,' (L1,....Ln), & a set of given, observed 'circumstances' (C1,....Cn), 'E', the conclusion is deduced. Accordingly, the character of an explanation & consequently, of J a theory, is deductive. II - As regards the structure of a theory several elements should be distinguished. (1) The logical mathematical, or probabilistic system in which the theory is formulated. (2) The calculus which may be conceived as the axiomatic nucleus of the theory & which consists of a set of primitive concepts & postulates governing the use of the primitives. On the basis of primitives & postulates new concepts & theorems are deduced. It is to be noted that the content of the primitives (their 'meaning') consists of the way they are used within the relational structure of the calculus; that is they are defined implicitly. (3) An interpretative system of rules connecting the 'abstract' calculus with other structures of knowledge. In this way the calculus can be given cliff interpretations, which constitute models of the initial calculus. In order to explain empirical reality, there should at least be an empirical model of the calculus, that is, the calculus has to be connected with observable reality. In this case the interpretation is given by a set of 'operational definitions' as they are commonly called. It is shown that these definitions can be conceived as 'quickly decidable sentences' by means of which the empirical model can be falsified. III - The role which theory construction plays with regard to the formation of reality is indicated. Making explicit its logical structure & its empirical interpretation, theory formation leads to 'intersubjectively transmissible knowledge.' It results in the construction of a reality which transcends individual & parochial idiosyncracies & which is accessible to everybody. Of the conditions a theory should fulfill, 2 stand out: (a) it should be consistent, & (b) it should be falsifiable. Finally, it is shown that there is some ground to assume theory formation to be possible-even in the soc sci's-difficult though it may be. IPSA.