Suchergebnisse

The article deals with the proper identification & localization of the effect of election predictions on voting behavior. As a revision of the "traditional bandwagon concept" stemming from the 1930's & 1940's, which is still in use despite its conceptual fallacy, new lines of thought are merged into the definition of the "modern bandwagon concept:" the relative & subjective bandwagon effects, together with the relative & subjective underdog effects & the slack effect, constitute the declaration effect as a resultant. Using matrices based upon party preferences, upon exposure to, perception of & interpretation of election predictions, & upon possible voting behavior, the several effects are localized. The real existence of effects is briefly discussed in relation to favorable or neutralizing conditions from the fields of pol'al sci & of mass COMM's. A warning is issued, on methodological & pol'al grounds, against too quick an acceptance of US res findings as valid for the Netherlands. IPSA.

The results of a res project on small local-pressure groups in Amsterdam, treated within D. Easton's (A SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL LIFE, New York, NY: 1967) theoretical framework for the analysis of pol'al systems. The municipality of Amsterdam was considered as the pol'al system & the rest of the Netherlands constituted the parameters of the system. The main analytical category used was 'demands,' because the concept 'support' caused considerable problems of operationalization. The activities of the groups are analyzed in 4 phases: feedback-stimuli, feedback-response, feedback-information, & output reaction. In the 1st phase a main distinction was introduced between groups which emerged as a result of an output of the authorities (the intra-genetic), & groups which emerged as a result of a situation in the parameters of the system (the extra-genetic). The 2nd phase includes the interpretation of the stimuli & the resulting formulation of demands. In the 3rd phase a distinction was made between indirect information feedback by means of activities such as demonstrations & appearance in the media of COMM; & direct information feedback by means of a direct contact with the authorities. The 4th phase was mainly dedicated to the behavior of the authorities. The main result of the res was the distinction between intra- & extra-genetic groups. This distinction was important for the following characteristics of the groups: intra-genetic groups more often appoint one man as the spokesman of the group; they consider more the people of certain parts of Amsterdam as concerned by their demands; they are more active in approaching the media of COMM; & are more often approached by authorities. Extra-genetic groups consider more the whole pop of Amsterdam or even the Netherlands as concerned by their demands; are more often related to pol'al parties; have less formal responsibility to the concerned people or members; & feel themselves less tied to the wishes of the people concerned. 5 Figures, 18 Tables. Modified HA.

It seems that the demonstrations on the Binnenhof in the Hague do not in general affect the views held by those for whose benefit the demonstrations are held: the members of the Second Chamber of the States General. This conclusion is drawn from a small-scale investigation of the effect of such demonstrations, which was undertaken by a number of pol'al sci students of the Free U of Amsterdam. The possible effects of 14 demonstrations held in the parliamentary yr 1968-1969 & in late 1969, were studied. In only one case was there evidence of influence on a number of Second Chamber members: the demonstrations held by young workers on Jun 26 & Nov 1, 1969. These demonstrations differed from most others in the mass participation, the careful preparation & org, the extensive coverage in the news media & in the wide support given to them, including that of trade unions. 4 Tables, 1 Diagram. HA.