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The paper focuses its analysis on the last three decades of the twentieth century. The basic assumption is that Egypt's economic performance during this period was less than satisfactory compared with the most successful examples in the far East and elsewhere. The paper also assumes that Egypt's initial conditions at midcentury compared favorably with the winners in the development race at the end of the century. Egypt has achieved positive progress, no doubt, yet compared with the higher performers in Asia, and given its favorable good initial conditions, the record seems quite mediocre. By mid-twentieth century, Egypt's agriculture had almost reached its limits. Egypt, therefore, faced a new challenge: a need to transform itself into an industrial society. This objective was only partially achieved. The paper identifies three interrelated factors that helped hinder Egypt's accession to a new industrial society. The first factor is a strong state and a weak society. An authoritarian state that in its endeavor to preserve its prerogatives had to give up good governance practices and limit the creative initiative of the individuals. The second factor is a semi-rentier economy. The availability of windfall revenues not only reduced the pressure for change but also promoted a new rentier mentality that undermined the emergence of an industrial spirit. The third factor is an inadequate education system. This system failed to provide the proper skills and values required for the industrial society. These factors, moreover, are interdependent and reinforce each other.

The aim of this study is to convince national and multilateral policy makers of the importance of the public sphere concept for democratic governance and strategic post-conflict assistance planning with the objective of positive and sustainable change in current post-conflict assistance policy and practice. The study introduces the conceptual thinking underlying the public sphere framework and, citing evidence from different countries, highlights its relevance and calls for its application in post-conflict environments. For practitioners the study provides a public sphere assessment toolkit and a toolbox for interventions. It also offers concrete examples and recommendations on how to address the specific governance challenges identified through a public sphere analysis in three countries: Timor-Leste, Liberia and Burundi.

"The University of the South Pacific (USP), a regional university, has changed its delivery systems for teaching and learning over the years to serve the growing needs for tertiary education of students living on the thousands of small and remote islands in the Pacific Ocean. This case study examines how the university has relied on its communications technology system (USPNet) to enhance its role as a regional capacity development centre for students, public and private institutions, and civil society in the region. The case offers interesting insights on the opportunities and challenges associated with relying on regional institutions to address capacity issues while also drawing attention to some of the capacities which are particularly important to the effective functioning of networks. This sub-series is published by the Asian Development Bank to provide the governments of its Pacific developing member countries (PDMCs) with analyses and insights on key issues and lessons learned with respect to capacity development. Cases studied highlight a range of experiences throughout the region by sector, theme and source of external support, revealing approaches to capacity development that work best and the conditions that have been conducive to their success. They also explore the unique challenges faced by PDMCs in addressing capacity constraints as well as some of the opportunities facing governments and the people in the Pacific islands. Among other things, the case studies underline the importance of PDMC leadership, engagement of local partners, strategic attention to long-term capacity issues and effective use of external resources. It is our hope that the findings in these reports will help to guide future capacity building efforts in the Pacific."

The following article is a review of possible strategies of the coconut sector facing the carbon market, through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Protocol of Kyoto, but also through Non-Kyoto (voluntary) initiatives. It sums up the conditions for certifying plantations, together with recent statistics of similar projects accepted by UNFCCC, which are currently displaying a rapid growth rate. It stresses the complexity of the CDM, but also the accessibility for coconut energy & afforestation + reforestation (A/R) projects, considering that coconut plantations do actually correspond to the definition of "forest". Using recent scientific information on C cycle of coconut plantations and coconut oil, it proposes also a simulation of the expected potential profitability of coconut energetic and A/R projects. From the point of view of the farmer and of the oil mill, in absence of any CDM project (the reference here), the value-added comes mainly from local processing of the copra into coconut oil. When implementing a short-term A/R project (t-CER), the value-added by C fixation in the ecosystem would be ca. + 15 to +19%, as compared to the copra and oil references. When implementing a long-term project (1-CER), the value-added would reach +40 to +52%. When implementing an energy-oil project solely, the value-added by C fixation in the coconut oil would be only +5% (this not including other benefits at national scale, however). When implementing a dual A/R + energy-oil project, the value-added by C fixation would be +19% for t-CER, and +45% for 1-CER with respect to the copra and oil references. These results are just potential values given for example, suspected to vary much according to the actual conditions of coconut plantation productivity, management and also C market conditions. However, the simulation clearly supports every APCC initiative in this direction.

"The University of the South Pacific (USP), a regional university, has changed its delivery systems for teaching and learning over the years to serve the growing needs for tertiary education of students living on the thousands of small and remote islands in the Pacific Ocean. This case study examines how the university has relied on its communications technology system (USPNet) to enhance its role as a regional capacity development centre for students, public and private institutions, and civil society in the region. The case offers interesting insights on the opportunities and challenges associated with relying on regional institutions to address capacity issues while also drawing attention to some of the capacities which are particularly important to the effective functioning of networks. This sub-series is published by the Asian Development Bank to provide the governments of its Pacific developing member countries (PDMCs) with analyses and insights on key issues and lessons learned with respect to capacity development. Cases studied highlight a range of experiences throughout the region by sector, theme and source of external support, revealing approaches to capacity development that work best and the conditions that have been conducive to their success. They also explore the unique challenges faced by PDMCs in addressing capacity constraints as well as some of the opportunities facing governments and the people in the Pacific islands. Among other things, the case studies underline the importance of PDMC leadership, engagement of local partners, strategic attention to long-term capacity issues and effective use of external resources. It is our hope that the findings in these reports will help to guide future capacity building efforts in the Pacific."

This paper derives an applied general political economy model incorporating a model of political decision making into a computable general economic equilibrium model. Political decision making among a set of legislators is modeled via a mean voter decision rule derived from a modified non cooperative legislative bargaining game of a Baron Ferejohn type. The model allows a simultaneous analysis of political and economic factors determining policy outcome and is applied to simulate future Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) under various political and economic scenarios.

Thèse en cotutelle internationale avec l'université Aristote de Thessalonique - Grèce ; The construction of a big dam is a project of important economic and social consequences and this is the reason why it should be preceded by a careful socio-economic and operational study. On one hand, the operational investigation should take into account the dam's dimensions and purpose, the location of its wartershed and its hydrology characteristics as well as the environmental constraints according to the international and national legislation. On the other hand, the socio-economic study should take into account all the variables which ensure the sustainability of the project. Until a few years ago, the vast majority of dams were funded and consequently owned by the public sector, thus project profitability was not of highest priority in the decision of their construction. Nowadays, the liberalisation of the electricity market in the developed world has led to the privatisation of energy infrastructures and has set new economic standards in the funding and management of dam projects. Investment decision is conditioned to an evaluated viability and profitability over the full life cycle of the project, typically 50 years, on the basis of quantitative criteria such as the Net Present Value (NPV). However, since the fuel of a hydropower plant is water, its operation interferes with the water resources management of the river basin where it is situated. To this respect, new practices and regulations have recently developed such as the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). They constrain any water resources project into following guidelines regarding its social and environmental impacts in accordance with long term issues such as its sustainability under climate change conditions. The present work aims at exploring the coupling of mathematical models of hydrology, hydropower operation, climate change and economics in order to propose ways of making balanced decisions merging the demands of project investment criteria, public well being and river basin management best practices. It is illustrated by the investigation of the new hydropower and irrigation project of Temenos in the Mesta/Nestos river basin. This basin is shared between Bulgaria in its upstream northern part and Greece for its downstream part. The river ends in Aegean Sea after expanding into the Nestos delta which is occupied by a vast expanse of irrigated fields. Currently, two hydroelectric power plants are located in the mountainous part of the Nestos basin: the Thissavros plant with a reservoir capacity of 565 millions m3 and further downstream, the Platanovryssi dam with a reservoir capacity of 11 millions m3. Both dams have been designed to operate in pump-storage mode for electricity generation. The future Temenos project is planned to be financed exclusively on private funds. Situated downstream from the previous dams, it is designed for: electricity production, irrigation regulation and should contribute to the improvement of the power produced by the existing complex. The climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) with the publication of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) reveal possible future climate modifications at global scale. More specifically, according to the output of the several global circulation models (GCM), the global average surface temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4 to 5.8°C over the period 1990 to 2100. These temperature increases should drive evaporation rate increases and precipitation fluctuations. Consequently, a severe impact could result upon hydropower generation as it is sensitive to the amount, timing, and geographical pattern of precipitation as well as temperature. Climate change studies over the Mesta-Nestos area have been based on the output of the CLM regional climate model from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany. They concern the SRES scenarios A1B and B1. The CLM model uses a dynamically downscaling technique where boundaries conditions provided by global scale models such as ECHAM5/MPIOM are adapted to local conditions such as relief. The temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration results obtained from CLM were used as input data to the spatially distributed hydrology model MODSUR-NEIGE for simulating the future water regime of the river basin. It was coupled with the HEC-ResSim reservoir simulation tool using a detailed technical representation of the dams and irrigation networks systems planned for the expansion of the existing irrigation in the Nestos delta and Xanthi plain areas. Finally, the appraisal of the Temenos project viability under future climatic conditions was carried out with the use of a special purpose economic tool which is based on the NPV rule. The thesis proposes a holistic approach to project evaluation which goes beyond strict project financing practices. The NPV based rule has been extended the merging of economic elements (energy and water selling prices) with social benefits (compensation to farmers in case of lack of water) and the value of the environment (costs for restoration good water status in case of failure to preserve a minimum environmental flow). It is argued that this combined approach offers a useful evaluation of the sustainability of water projects. Furthermore, climate scenarios have been augmented by transboundary politics hypotheses based on the execution of on-going flow treaty existing between Bulgaria and Greece about the Mesta-Nestos waters. Finally, in the context of compliance with the WFD basin management guidelines, the use of multicriteria decision analysis methods is explored in order to balance the conflicts of interests between all the actors which should be participating in the ultimate decision of financing and operating a multipurpose dam project such as Temenos. ; La construction d'un grand barrage est un projet aux conséquences économiques et sociales importantes voila pourquoi elle doit être précédée d'une étude opérationnelle et socio-économique détaillée. En premier lieu, l'étude opérationnelle doit porter sur les dimensions et le régime d'utilisation du barrage, la configuration géographique de son bassin de drainage et ses caractéristiques hydrologiques aussi bien que sur les contraintes de type environnemental qui peuvent s'exercer dans un cadre législatif national ou international. En second lieu, l'étude socio-économique doit prendre en compte tous les paramètres susceptibles d'influencer sur la durabilité du projet. Jusqu'à une époque récente, la large majorité des barrages était financée et gérée par le secteur public. Ainsi la profitabilité des projets n'était pas un élément prépondérant dans la décision de les construire. De nos jours, la libéralisation du marché de l'énergie dans les pays développés a conduit à la privatisation des infrastructures énergétiques et par voie de conséquence à l'application de nouveaux objectifs économiques dans le financement et la gestion des projets de barrage. Les décisions d'investissement sont conditionnées par l'évaluation de leur viabilité technique et de leur profitabilité tout au long de leur durée de vie qui est typiquement de 50 ans. Cette évaluation est basée sur l'usage d'un critère quantitatif nommé Valeur Actualisée Nette (VAN) aussi appelé Net Present Value en anglais (NPV). Cependant, comme l'eau est le fluide nécessaire au fonctionnement des centrales hydroélectriques, leur exploitation interfère avec la gestion des ressources en eau du bassin hydrographique qui les accueille. De ce point de vue, de nouvelles pratiques et réglementations ont été introduites dans l'Union Européenne par la Directive Cadre sur l'Eau (idem, WFD en anglais). Cette directive contraint chaque projet d'exploitation des ressources en eau à suivre des recommandations portant sur ses conséquences sociales et son impact sur l'environnement en respectant des contraintes à long terme relatives à sa durabilité en cas de changement climatique. Le travail présenté porte sur l'exploration du couplage entre différents modèles mathématiques traitant de l'hydrologie, l'exploitation hydroélectrique, le changement climatique et l'évaluation économique dans le but de proposer les moyens d'effectuer des décisions équilibrées satisfaisant aux exigences des critères de financement de projet , au bien-être du public et aux pratiques qu'exigent la gestion de bassin hydrographique. Ce travail est illustré par l'étude du futur barrage de Temenos, projet mixte de production électrique et d'irrigation intéressant le bassin hydrographique du Mesta-Nestos. Ce bassin est partagé entre la Bulgarie pour sa partie amont et la Grèce pour sa partie aval. La rivière termine son cours dans la mer Egée après avoir formé le delta du Nestos dont la majorité de la surface est occupée par un système d'irrigation. Deux ouvrages hydroélectriques occupent actuellement la partie montagneuse du bassin du Nestos. Il s'agit du barrage de Thissavros dont le réservoir a une capacité de 565 millions m3 et du barrage de Platanovryssi situé en aval du précédent et dont la capacité est de11 millions m3. Les deux barrages sont liés par un système de rétro-pompage STEP (Station de Transfert d'Énergie par Pompage). Le futur projet Temenos devrait être exclusivement financé sur fonds privés. Situé en aval des deux barrages précédents, il est configuré pour augmenter la production d'électricité du précédent complexe et pour réguler le système d'irrigation de la basse vallée agricole du Nestos Les scénarios de changement climatique (SRES) développés par le Groupe d'Experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Evolution du Climat (GIEC ou IPCC, en anglais) prévoient de possibles changements climatiques décrits à l'échelle mondiale. Plus précisément, selon les résultats des modèles de circulation globale (GCM), la moyenne mondiale annuelle de la température de surface pourrait augmenter de 1.4 à 5.8°C sur une période allant de 1990 à 2100. Cette augmentation de température pourrait entrainer une augmentation de l'évaporation et influencer le régime des précipitations. Dans ce cas, un impact notable pourrait en résulter sur l'exploitation des installations hydroélectriques dont l'exploitation est particulièrement sensible à la quantité, au rythme et à la répartition géographique des précipitations et des températures. L'étude du changement climatique sur la zone du Mesta-Nestos est base sur les résultats du modèle climatique régional CLM de l'Institut de Météorologie Max Planck, Allemagne. Elle s'intéresse plus particulièrement aux scénarios B1 et A1B produits par le SRES. Le modèle CLM effectue un transfert à l'échelle locale des résultats du modèle global atmosphère-océan ECHAM5/MPIOM utilisés comme forçage. CLM est en particulier conditionné par les conditions aux limites du relief local. Les séries mensuelles de température, précipitation et évapotranspiration produites par CLM ont été utilisées comme données d'entrée du modèle hydrologique distribué MODSUR-NEIGE de manière à simuler le régime hydrographique du bassin en cas de changement climatique. Ce modèle est couplé au modèle de barrage HEC-ResSim décrivant en détail tous les éléments techniques du complexe hydroélectrique du Nestos et des réseaux d'irrigation existant dans le delta du Nestos ainsi que leur future extension à la plaine de Xanthi. Enfin, l'évaluation de la viabilité du projet Temenos en conditions de changement climatique a été effectuée à l'aide d'un nouvel outil économique basé sur le calcul de la VAN et spécialement développé pour les besoins de l'étude. La thèse propose une approche holistique de l'évaluation de projet qui dépasse le strict cadre économique. Le calcul de la VAN a été étendu de façon à réunir les éléments de strict rendement économique (recettes tirées de la vente de l'énergie électrique et de l'eau d'irrigation ainsi que l'accroissement du revenu des agriculteurs) avec des éléments concernant les « externalités » du projet que sont la valeur de l'environnement (coût de restauration du bon état des eaux de surface dans le cas où le débit environnemental minimal ne peut être maintenu) et les bénéfices sociaux (compensations aux agriculteurs dans le cas où les débits d'irrigation ne peuvent être délivrés). On argumente le fait que cette approche combinée offre un outil efficace d'évaluation du projet selon une approche de développement durable. De plus, l'étude d'impact des scenarios de changement climatique a été augmentée d'une étude portant sur les conséquences que pourraient avoir différentes hypothèses d'évolution de la politique de gestion transfrontalière du bassin en relation avec l'exécution du traité de débit signé entre la Bulgarie et la Grèce à propos des eaux du Mesta-Nestos. Enfin, dans un contexte d'application des recommandations de la Directive Cadre de l'Eau (WFD), on propose d'explorer l'utilisation des méthodes de décision multicritère (MCDA, en anglais) pour gérer les conflits d'intérêt des différents acteurs du bassin dans la phase d'acceptation du projet Temenos et dans sa phase d'exploitation.

Brazil grew 2.4 percent per year on average in the last 25 years-somewhat less than Latin America, a good deal less than the world, far less than the emerging countries of Asia in the same period, and indeed far less than Brazil itself in previous decades. If anything stands out favorably in recent Brazilian experience, it is not growth but stabilization and the successful opening of the economy. The purpose of this paper is more modest. It is limited to setting out the authors' particular view of recent efforts to consolidate democracy in Brazil while controlling inflation and resuming economic growth. At the same time the paper presents, as objectively as possible, some thoughts on the limits but also the relevance of action by political leaders to set a course and circumvent obstacles to that process. Here and there, the paper refers to the experiences of other Latin American countries, especially Argentina, Chile, and Mexico, not to offer a full fledged comparative analysis but merely to note contrasts and similarities that may shed light on the peculiarities of the Brazilian case and suggest themes for a more wide-ranging exchange of views.

Inhaltsangabe: Abstract: The US subprime-crisis became a headline in the global media starting in February 2007 after the US housing market had already shown first signs of a slowdown in late 2006. Previously, the US housing market had enjoyed a favorable environment, especially from 2002 to 2005, which was characterized by low interest rates, rising house values, and increasing home financing possibilities through subprime mortgages. However, more and more events were published during the year by US mortgage brokers, international investment banks, and central banks around the world that presented a picture which caused today's perception of the subprime-crisis. What's more, the subprime-crisis is far from being over: an end to the crisis is not yet in sight. One rather unique characteristic of this crisis is that its actual basis is the delinquencies and defaults of subprime single-family home mortgages in the US which is commonly not regarded to be of great relevance for the international capital markets. However, taking into account the originate and distribute business model of US mortgage brokers in connection with the securitization of these mortgages into various types of securities that are traded on a global basis, it is not surprising to observe that banks and investment funds around the world were invested into these securities. Before the crisis started, only a few banks or funds considered the liquidity of these securities when investing significant amounts of money in them because they focused on maximizing their returns. But, when larger problems in the US subprime mortgage market became evident, liquidity became the major concern for investors and investor preferences significantly shifted to safer assets such as government bonds. This caused severe problems in the money market, which ultimately brought the crisis across the Atlantic to Europe. Moreover, funding problems emerged and caused the first bank run in Europe in decades when depositors in Britain started to queue outside Northern Rock branches for hours to withdraw their deposits in light of fears that the bank might have to file for bankruptcy. In addition, another British bank had been in the spotlight earlier that year because HSBC was the first European bank to announce a billion dollar write-off linked to its exposure to subprime mortgages. Taking into consideration the subprime-crisis-related events in Europe, the British banking market can be characterized as the only banking market in Europe where the subprime crisis caused banks to substantially write down subprime-related assets on the one hand but where severe funding problems even led to a bank run that had to be bailed out by the central bank and the government on the other hand. Consequently, the British banking market can be considered to be the European banking market with the highest impact of the subprime-crisis and is, therefore, worth analyzing in detail. The objective of this thesis is to discuss the reasons for the emergence of the subprime-crisis and to empirically examine whether the subprime-crisis had an impact on the British Banking sector. The empirical analysis consists of two different approaches whereas an event study measures the short-term impact of certain news. The performance of the British banking sector in the full year 2007 is analyzed in a second approach that focuses on the long-term impact of the subprime-crisis. In addition, the paper provides an overview on the development of the subprime-crisis in 2007 based on a detailed description of the underlying fundamental market characteristics. In order to empirically measure the impact of the subprime-crisis on British banks, an event study will be conducted. Event studies are a widely-used empirical methodology in economics and finance to examine the impact of certain events: they are considered to be the standard method to measure security price reactions. An event study is an empirical study that measures if specific events have a significant impact on certain stock prices by calculating abnormal stock returns around predefined events. In this regard, an abnormal return is the difference between the actual return in the market and the expected return according to a return generating model. A common assumption in this regard is that positive events lead to positive abnormal returns whereas negative events cause the abnormal returns to be negative. Consequently, important news relating to the subprime-crisis will be categorized as positive or negative and its impact on stock returns will be determined. The event study, as well as the timeline of the subprime-crisis, include events from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2007. The analysis of the year-round performance of the British banking sector in 2007 is conducted in addition to the event study and follows a different methodology. In contrast to the analysis of the impact of individual events, this approach deals with the performance of British banks and compares this to the performance of an alternative non-bank portfolio. Key to this analysis is that both portfolios have the same risk and return characteristics at the beginning of 2007 that have been determined through a backtesting of the portfolios' performance in 2006. Course of the Investigation: In the second chapter, important fundamentals of the subprime-crisis will be examined. These fundamentals explain how an environment was able to develop in the last decades that lay the foundation for today's crisis. In Chapter 2.1, an overview about the development and the structure of the US subprime mortgage market will be presented before specific characteristics of subprime mortgages will be outlined in 2.2. The unique business model of mortgage brokers is depicted subsequently. The last segments of Chapter 2 specify complex financial instruments that enabled the subprime-crisis to spread around the world and explain why the securitization process leads to high-risk securities. Chapter 3 specifically describes the development of the subprime-crisis in 2007. After presenting an overview about the situation of the US housing market up to 2007 in 3.1, a timeline about last year's subprime-crisis is outlined in 3.2, and the impact on international capital markets is discussed in 3.3. Chapter 3.4 focuses on the consequences for British banks and the actions of the British financial regulatory environment. An empirical analysis of the subprime-crisis is conducted in Chapter 4. A general overview about event studies and their historic development is presented in 4.1. After deducing the typical framework of an event study in 4.2, the relevant British banks in line with its market index as well as relevant news for the event study are determined in Chapter 4.3. The actual event study that analyzes the impact of the subprime-crisis on British banks will be presented in Chapter 4.4. Additionally, a comparison of the performance of a bank portfolio with an alternative non-bank portfolio is given in 4.5. Finally, Chapter 5 contains a summary of the theoretical concepts and the empirical results and gives an outlook about a potential development of the subprime-crisis, capital markets, and specifically the British banking market. Ideas for further research are also presented.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: LIST OF FIGURESI LIST OF TABLESII LIST OF ABBREVIATIONSIII 1.INTRODUCTION1 1.1Motivation and Objective1 1.2Course of the Investigation3 2.FUNDAMENTALS OF THE SUBPRIME-CRISIS4 2.1The US Housing and Subprime Mortgage Market4 2.2Characteristics ofSubprime Mortgages7 2.3Business Model of US Mortgage Brokers9 2.4Financial Instruments Underlying the Subprime-Crisis10 2.5Consequences of the Fragmented Securitization Process14 3.THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUBPRIME-CRISIS15 3.1Situation of the US Housing Market up to200715 3.2Timeline of the Subprime-Crisis in 200717 3.3Spillover Effects from the Mortgage Market to the Global Capital Markets21 3.4Consequences for the British Banking Market22 4.EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ABOUT THE SUBPRIME-CRISIS27 4.1History and Overview of Event Studies27 4.2Framework of an Event Study28 4.3Selection of Relevant Data31 4.3.1British Banks and Market Index31 4.3.2News about Private Financial Institutions and Central Banks32 4.4Event Study About the Subprime-Crisis34 4.4.1Event Study Methodology34 4.4.2Formulation and Testing of Hypotheses36 4.4.3Interpretation of Results37 4.5Year-round Performance of the British Banking Sector in 200740 5.SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION43 REFERENCES45 APPENDIXES51Textprobe:Text Sample: Chapter 3.2,Timeline of the Subprime-Crisis in 2007: In February 2007, the first signs appeared that subprime mortgage brokers were in trouble as ResMae Mortgage filed for bankruptcy and Nova Star Financial reported a loss that was not expected by analysts. It was also the beginning of European banks having to announce losses that were caused by the subprime-crisis. HSBC reported losses of Dollar 10.5bn in its mortgage finance subsidiary in the US and, consequently, fired the head of that particular division. Problems of US mortgage brokers became more and more evident in March 2007 as People's Choice was the next mortgage broker that had to declare bankruptcy. Moreover, the brokers Fremont General and New Century Financial stopped making new subprime mortgages. Two weeks later, rumors appeared that New Century Financial may have to file for bankruptcy as well and these rumors became true in the beginning of April when the company had to file for Chapter 11. In May, the next European bank announced an involvement in the subprime-crisis when UBS had to close its US hedge fund operation Dillon Read Capital Management. In June 2007, rating agencies began appearing in the crisis. Moody's downgraded 131 subprime MBSs and announced to review the rating of an additional 260 securities. Moreover, two Bear Stearns hedge funds that heavily invested in subprime-backed securities lost a significant part of their value and Bear Stearns had to bail-out the hedge funds and provide them with Dollar3.2bn to cover their subprime exposure. As a result, they fired their head of asset management who was responsible for the hedge fund business. July 2007 is considered the first month when the subprime-crisis had a significant impact on the stock market. After closing above 14,000 points for the first time in history, the Dow Jones lost about seven percent until the end of September. UBS brought the crisis back to Europe once more when they suddenly fired their chief executive officer (CEO) Peter Wuffli, mentioning problems relating to the subprime crisis as the cause of this decision. Ration agencies also played a major role in July when Standard Poor's (SP) and Moody's downgraded the ratings of subprime MBSs with values of Dollar 7.3bn and Dollar 5.0bn, respectively. On July 7, SP announced a review of the ratings of numerous CDOs with investments in subprime structured products; Moody's was said to review 184 mortgage-backed CDO tranches. Mortgage brokers were in the spotlight again when American Home Mortgage had difficulties in the refinancing of loans. Countrywide, another major mortgage broker announced a drop in earnings as more and more of their subprime loans defaulted. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke also mentioned rising defaults in the subprime market and estimated that total losses caused by the subprime crisis could add up to Dollar 100bn. Suddenly, on July 30, the German bank IKB Deutsche Industriebank (IKB) had to announce that one of its ABCP conduits that invested in subprime structured products had troubles refinancing itself. As a consequence, IKB's main shareholder, state-owned KfW, had to bail-out IKB and guaranteed liquidity lines for the conduit Rhineland Funding. One day later, on August 1, 2007, the whole picture of IBK was presented to the public. Total losses due the Rhineland Funding conduit were Euro 3.5bn and a rescue fund by KfW and other German private banks was installed. The mortgage broker American Home Mortgage finally declared bankruptcy and extended the terms on ABCP that were issued by one of its funding conduits. Liquidity problems in the markets for structured products became obvious when BNP Paribas stopped the redemption of three of its funds with a total value of Euro 2bn because they were not able to calculate a fair price for the funds due to the illiquid subprime MBS market. This announcement triggered concerns about market prices of structured credit products in general and interbank lending rates such as LIBOR strongly increased as banks sought liquidity. ABCPs were also priced with higher premiums. This closure of BNP Paribas funds can be regarded as one of the key events in the subprime-crisis because it caused central banks to heavily intervene in the money markets. One day later, the European Central Bank (ECB) injected Euro 95bn of short-term liquidity into the European money market and, subsequently, the Fed as well as the Bank of Japan provided liquidity to their respective money markets. These central banks continued to provide hundreds of billions of dollars of short-term liquidity to the global money markets in the following weeks. The Fed intervened again, by reducing the discount rate in order to provide liquidity to the markets. Goldman Sachs was the next company that had to inject money into a hedge fund in mid-August. The investment bank injected Dollar3bn into one of its hedge funds that suffered from losses in subprime structured products. Citigroup closed seven SIVs with a value of Dollar49bn and took the SIVs' subprime debt on its balance sheet as the SIVs were not able to receive funding due to the illiquidity in the money markets. Morgan Stanley announced to a write-off of Dollar 9.4bn due to investments in the subprime market and sold a 9.9 percent stake to a Chinese investment company in order to strengthen its equity base later that month. Countrywide also suffered from the illiquid markets and had to draw down Dollar 11.5bn from the company's credit lines before receiving a Dollar2bn cash injection from Bank of America. Similar to the losses of IKB, SachsenLB, another German bank, reported refinancing problems in one of its conduits that invested into subprime mortgage products and was, consequently, sold to LBBW after receiving a Euro17.3bn credit line. Looking at the British Banking market, Barclays received a Pounds1.6bn short-term loan from the Bank of England. In the beginning of September 2007, it became evident that the subprime-crisis was a truly global crisis when Bank of China revealed that they made losses of Dollar 9bn that can be attributed to subprime investments. The major event of the subprime-crisis in Britain started on September 13, when the BBC announced that Northern Rock received an emergency loan from the Bank of England in order to solve its refinancing problems. As a consequence, a bank run started that could only be stopped when the British government guaranteed all savings. A more detailed analysis of Northern Rock is presented in Chapter 3.4. A number of investment banks announced their quarterly results in September. Goldman Sachs reports net earnings of Dollar 2.8bn, which were mainly due to short positions in structured subprime mortgage products, whereas Deutsche Bank announced losses of Euro1.7bn. HSBC had losses of Dollar 880m in the third quarter and announced the closure of its US subprime mortgage unit. International banks continued to announce quarterly results in October. UBS reveled an unexpectedly high loss, wrote down Dollar3.4bn in its fixed income division, and fired its Chief Financial Officer and its investment banking head. Moreover, Citigroup had to write-off Dollar 5.9bn in addition to its earlier write-offs. Merrill Lynch's write-offs accounted for Dollar 7.9bn and caused total losses of Dollar 2.3bn. As a result, CEO Stan O'Neil resigned from his position. The Japanese Bank Nomura also announced a substantial loss and closed its US MBS department. The US government initiated the Hope Now initiative that was set up in order to support homeowners to avoid defaults on their mortgage. The US Treasury Department also made major US banks install the Master Liquidity Enhancement Conduit that was supposed to buy illiquid structured products to reestablish liquidity in the market. SP downgraded another Dollar23bn worth of structured products that were backed by mortgage loans and unlike the downgrades in August, SP also downgraded securities that had an AAA rating before. On October 31, the Fed announced the expected reduction of the federal funds target rate by another 25 basis points to 4.5 percent. Investment banks continued to report their subprime exposure in November 2007. Citigroup started with admitting an additional write-down requirement between Dollar8bn and Dollar11bn after already having to write-off Dollar5.9bn in October. As a consequence of these substantial losses, CEO Charles Prince resigned. Morgan Stanley reported a Dollar3.7bn loss in its subprime mortgage investments, whereas Wachovia announced a total loss of Dollar1.7bn. Bank of America wrote off Dollar3bn due to investments in the subprime market and the GSE Freddie Mac reported a loss of Dollar2bn. Besides US banks, UK banks were also again affected by the subprime-crisis. Barclays and HSBC had to write down Dollar2.7bn and Dollar3.4bn, respectively. At the end of November, Citigroup announced an increase in its equity base and sold additional shares to an investment fund based in Abu Dhabi in order to raise Dollar7.5bn. Moreover, Freddie Mac increased its equity by issuing Dollar6bn worth of new shares. In line with Freddie Mac's capital increase, Fannie Mae also issued new shares worth Dollar7bn in the beginning of December 2007. On December 3, Moody's announced a review of additional subprime debt. The British banks Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds TSB reported subprime write-offs with a value of Pounds1.25bn and Pounds200m, respectively. On December 6, the Bank of England lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points while the ECB left the interest rates at a constant level following its regular meeting on the same day. In the US, the Fed lowered the discount rate by 25 basis points one week later although some directors were in favor of a 50 basis points interest rate cut. UBS announced that the bank had to write-down another Dollar10bn due to its subprime mortgage market investments. In addition, the company received an Dollar11.5bn capital infusion by investors from Singapore and the Middle East. The last banks that reported substantial losses in 2007 were Washington Mutual, who reported fourth quarter losses of Dollar1.6bn and Morgan Stanley, who wrote off an additional 9.4 Dollar bn and also sold new equity to a foreign investor. In order to provide European banks with sufficient liquidity at the end of the year, the ECB provided banks with 500 Dollar bn at the end of December. This timeline of the development of the subprime-crisis in 2007 shows the huge impact on the international financial markets and global financial institutions that the problems in the US subprime mortgage market have caused. The next chapter will highlight how the crisis in the subprime mortgage market was able to spill over to other asset classes on a global basis. In order to understand the consequences of the subprime-crisis and especially the need for central bank interventions in the money markets, it is necessary to understand the emergence of the liquidity crisis that appeared in the second half of 2007. Many economists such as Buiter define August 9, 2007 as the day when the subprime-crisis was evidently the trigger for the global capital markets crisis. The closure of the BNP Paribas funds due to its inability to value ABS had a spill-over effect on many asset classes and also forced the central banks to massively intervene in the money markets. In economic theory, these spill-over effects are called contagion, which is defined as the spread of a crisis from one specific market into different countries or asset classes. One major consequence was the widening in credit spreads in the global money markets that were caused by the liquidity shortage in the interbank market. Banks across the globe were more and more uncertain about other banks' involvement in subprime MBSs and CDOs and the financial health of their counterparties in money market transactions and became reluctant to lend money, even on a short-time basis. As a result, a liquidity crisis occurred that forced the central banks to provide enormous amounts of liquidity to the interbank markets. One characteristic of the liquidity crisis was a so-called flight to quality which means that banks and fund managers sell riskier assets such as subprime MBSs and CDOs and invest in safe assets such as government bonds. A flight to quality is generally regarded to be based on uncertainty in the markets or uncertainty about counterparties rather than on the risk of specific assets itself. This also seems to hold true for the subprime-crisis. Due to the large supply in these risky asset classes, the markets for MBSs, CDOs, and ABCPs became very illiquid because many sellers were opposing few buyers. As a result, credit spreads in these asset classes significantly increased. As a reaction to the liquidity crisis in the interbank market, central banks intervened several times and provided liquidity to the market.

How should we study and conceptualize political identity and behaviour in post modern society? How do people understand and experience power, and from where do people acquire the elements that impact the formation of the individuals "cognitive map" or political image of society? How do individuals perceive their own role in current democracy? With interview data derived from a case study analysis is presented and unfolded here. The basic approach is phenomenological-hermeneutical, but it is analytically informed by discourse analysis. The chapter advocates a constructivist bottom up approach as a method of the study of perceptions. It is suggested that individual perception of power and mass mediated politics is related to personal 'first hand' experience, and that social distance and scepticism co-exist with political engagement and knowledge.