Комплексне моделювання у прогнозуванні та розробка міжнародних сценаріїв ; Integrated modeling in prognostication and international scenario development ; Комплексное моделирование в прогнозировании и разработка международных сценариев
Здійснено аналіз проблеми стосовно місця та значення комплексного моделювання у міжнародних відносинах та розробці можливих сценаріїв розгортання конкретних подій у сфері міжнародного співжиття, подано конкретні приклади та запропоновано практичні схеми. ; This article highlights the place and main meaning of the integrated modeling in international relations, as well as, development of all the possible scenario of specific events in the international coexistence.The creation of international development prognostic model that could take into account a lot of exterior, interior, intervening and multi-aspect factors, as well as, conditions of other research methods, is divided into a number of the main stages.Among the most important range of international prognostic methodology enrichment processes should be mentioned such points as political science and economical and mathematical apparat synthesis. However, concerning these things, there is a general problem which says about no final generally accepted number of social political factors that should be applied into the computers. At the same time, natural experience gives an opportunity to get quite important cybernetic calculations (especially during the world and regional conflict situation analysis).So, international relations complex modeling is generally based on the system approach method that represents higher stage of prognostic reaching than system approach does. The last one motioned approach is knows as a description of the pragmatic methods, approaches, ways and procedures of international relations ordering complex. Mostly based of the system analysis, system approach plays function of international prognostication which highlights integral but quite contradictory development of the particular state or the coalition of states in world community. On the basis of systematic regularity, it is easy to define the complex interactions between the key poles of global development, as well as, different subsystems evolution specifics (democratic, totalitarian, transitional etc.).All in all, complex modeling which shows an imitational object or research process constructing within the help of economical and statistic methods, highlights one of the main key ways in the modern international prognostication. So, imitational modeling allows bringing out numerous deep sides of development that is unreachable for the ordinary foreign visual observation of the expert.There are analyzed concrete examples and offered practical schemes. ; Рассмотрено вопрос относительно места и значения комплексного моделирования в международных отношениях и разработке возможных сценариев развития конкретных событий в сфере международного сосуществования, проанализировано конкретные примеры и предложено практические схемы.