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"In 2016, economic globalization suffered a severe crisis after over half a century of smooth development, and deglobalization was running mountains high. Not only did it trigger domestic political discord in major countries like the United States, Britain, France and Germany, but also led to international economic and political disputes among Western countries, intensifying strategic competition between major powers. With the arrival of 2017, through the perilous waves of deglobalization and the consequent international political upheavals, we find that the post Cold War era that we were familiarized with, is coming to a rapid end, ushering in a new international political era, full of uncertainties. This annual book presents Chinese scholars' views, opinions and predictions on global political and security issues, as well as China's strategic choice. It covers a wide range of important issues concerning international security, ranging from the assessment of Sino-US relations, Russian-American relations, the counter terrorism situation in the Middle East, the political situation in Taiwan and cross-Strait relations, Brexit and the refugee problem, and the strategic situation in the South China Sea, to the judgment of the strategic posture in countries and regions like Japan, the Korean Peninsula, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa. Also covered are the analysis of the strategic posture in cyber space, outer space (as well as their governance), and discussion on China's international strategic choice in the wave of deglobalization."--

In recent years, studies in the fields of both foreign policy analysis and international relations theory on China's domestic level have increased. However, these increases in studies have not been well received. Our research reviewed the related classical literature and the published literature over the past decade, seeking to find correlations among the various domestic factors and explore the progress of the operationalization of several variables. Our findings reveal that regime type and beliefs are the two variables which have been well studied in both of the fields of foreign policy analysis and international relations theory; that variables related to actors have been studied in the field of foreign policy analysis; and that new academic achievements inboth the studies have been adopted into the paradigms of international relations theory. These new developments have generally stimulated multilevel analysis in international relations. ; 近年来,国内政治层次在对外政策分析和国际关系理论两个领域的共同推动下,形成了一个要素庞多、交互复杂的知识网络体系,但却很少有研究兼顾宏观与微观双视角下去探究、梳理、整合这个知识体系。通过考察相关经典文献与近十年的研究成果,本文对国际关系研究中的国内政治解释进行类型化的分析,从宏观上寻找各要素之间的相关性,从微观上探索各变量的操作化进展。各变量在对外政策分析与国际关系理论两个领域的发展状况和深入程度存在差异,其中政体、观念等是两个领域的交互关系较深的变量,而行为体相关变量主要由对外政策分析领域推动,一些国际关系理论范式直接套用了这些研究成果。两个领域间相互推动发展的这种关系,不仅使国际关系研究不再只强调单方向、单层次的分析方法,而且互动与跨层次分析的成果也越来越丰富。

In its nature, world history is an evolutionary cycle of non-rules, non-order to rules and order. The Peace of Westphalia began the international order aiming to resolve disputes through multinational meetings. However, the fragile world order and the code of international relations failed to prevent World War Ⅰ. Although a new system of multinational mechanisms, formed after World War I, reformed the international community, it did not stop World War Ⅱ from breaking out. After World War Ⅱ, a new system of international organizations represented by the United Nations and new norms of international relations centered on the Charter of the United Nations were established. Despite its undeniable role in the world order and the norms of international relations, the so-called Yalta System, still has its flaws. After the end of the Cold War, the necessity of a new world political, economic and security order is rising. The theory and practice of global governance is in need of upgrading. However, due to complicated historical and realistic reasons, the process of building up a new order based on new rules would be long and tortuous. Key Words: International Order, Power Relations, Charter of the United Nations, Global Governance ; 世界历史归根到底,就是从无规则无秩序到有规则有秩序,再到建立新规则新秩序无限发展历程。威斯特伐利亚条约的诞生,标志着以多边会议为争端解决机制的国际秩序开始形成,但粗陋而孱弱的世界秩序和国际关系准则并没能阻止第一次世界大战的爆发。一战后形成的一系列新型多边合作机制曾使国际社会欢欣鼓舞,但这套体制和规则仍未能阻止二战的爆发。国际社会于二战结束之际,建立起以联合国为代表的新的国际组织体系和联合国宪章为核心的新型国际关系准则。这套名为雅尔塔体系的世界秩序和国际关系规则虽然发挥了不可否认的历史作用,但许多方面仍不尽如人意。冷战结束后,世界呼唤新的政治经济秩序、安全格局,全球治理从理论到实践都亟待更新。但由于极其复杂的历史和现实原因,建立基于新规则的新秩序,将是一个漫长而曲折的历史过程。 【关键词】国际秩序,大国关系,联合国宪章,全球治理