Suchergebnisse

Viime vuosikymmenten aikana nationalismi on nostanut päätään Euroopassa. Tämä on ollut erityisen voimakasta Kataloniassa ja Skotlannissa, mutta myös Belgiassa perinteisen kansallisvaltion on nähty heikentyvän huomattavasti. Vuosien mittaan hollanninkielinen Flanderi on vaatinut yhä enemmän toimivaltaa ja oikeuksia päättää omista asioistaan. Vähitellen neljän valtioreformin myötä Belgia kehittyi asteittain kohti liittovaltiota, joka perustettiin lopulta vuonna 1993. Sen jälkeen Flanderin itsenäisyyttä kannattavien poliittisten puolueiden suosio on kasvanut entisestään. Tässä tutkimuksessa käsitellään flaamilaista nationalismia sekä Flanderin tärkeimpien poliittisten puolueiden kantoja entistä laajempaan autonomiaan vuosina 1971-2010. Keskityn tutkimuksessani autonomian kasvun lisäksi myös federalismin kehitykseen Belgiassa viime vuosikymmeninä. Tutkimukseni pääpaino on Flanderissa, mutta tarkastelen samalla myös koko Belgian tulevaisuutta. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää, millainen asenne Flanderin isoimmilla poliittisilla puolueilla oli Flanderin autonomian laajentamiseen poliittisissa puolueohjelmissa 1970-luvulta vuoteen 2010. Tarkastelen myös flaamilaista nationalismia ja analysoin, miten Flanderin poliittiset puolueet ovat käsitelleet puolueohjelmissaan nationalismiin keskeisesti liittyviä asioita, kuten hollannin kieltä, kulttuuria ja identiteettiä. Luon niin ikään katsauksen puolueiden Eurooppa- politiikkaan keskittyen erityisesti niiden suhtautumiseen EU:n aluepolitiikkaan. Kiinnitän huomiota erityisesti siihen, esittävätkö puolueohjelmat Flanderin itsenäisenä ja riippumattomana toimijana eurooppalaisissa ja kansainvälisissä yhteyksissä, vai nähdäänkö Flanderi pikemminkin osana Belgiaa? Tutkimuksessa keskitytään kolmeen merkittävään virstanpylvääseen Belgian poliittisessa historiassa: vuosiin 1970, 1993 ja 2010. Ensimmäinen käännekohta – vuoden 1970 valtioreformi – määritteli kulttuuriyhteisöt vastaamaan flaamien vaatimuksia kulttuurisesta autonomiasta. Toinen käännekohta, toukokuussa 1993 säädetty perustuslaki, on merkittävä tapahtuma Belgian poliittisessa historiassa, koska se määritteli Belgian muodollisesti liittovaltioksi. Viimeinen käännekohta on vuoden 2010 ennenaikaiset liittovaltion vaalit. Tällöin voittajaksi nousi flaaminationalistinen puolue, N-VA, joka on tuonut useaan otteeseen selkeästi esille, että sen tavoitteena on saavuttaa Flanderin itsenäisyys. Analysoin poliittisia puolueohjelmia vuosilta 1971/1972, 1991, 1995 sekä 2010 kvalitatiivisen metodin avulla. Käyttämällä käsitteellistä sisällönanalyysia pääasiallisena tutkimusmenetelmänä keskityn analysointiprosessissani tiettyihin tutkimukseni kontekstiin liittyviin käsitteisiin, kuten federalismiin, nationalismiin ja identiteettiin. Puolueohjelmien lisäksi käytän toissijaisena aineistona Belgian parlamentissa käytyjä keskusteluja vuosilta 1969, 1988 ja 2013. Analysoin keskusteluja niin ikään käsitteellisen sisällönanalyysin kautta. Parlamenttikeskustelut valottavat sitä räjähdysherkkää poliittista ilmapiiriä, joka Belgiassa on viime vuosikymmenten aikana vallinnut. Ne tarjoavat samalla myös lisätukea ja mielenkiintoista taustatietoa Belgian poliittisesta tilanteesta tutkimukseni kannalta tärkeinä ajankohtina. Lisäksi keskityn erityisesti teoreettiseen ja historialliseen kirjallisuuteen, kiinnittäen huomiota etenkin Daniel Elazarin teoriaan federalistisista poliittisista järjestelmistä ja Benedict Andersonin teoriaan kansakunnasta 'kuviteltuna poliittisena yhteisönä'. Tutkimukseni päätulokset osoittavat, että Flanderin poliittisten puolueiden esittämät asenteet autonomian laajentamisesta eroavat selvästi toisistaan. Sosialistipuolueet korostivat yhtenäistä Belgiaa selvästi enemmän kuin muut puolueet. Alueelliset, flaaminationalistiset puolueet kannattivat jopa Flanderin itsenäisyyttä useana vuonna, kun taas kristillisdemokraatit ja liberaalit tukivat konfederaatiomallia vuonna 2010, mutta toisaalta vastustivat voimakkaasti Flanderin itsenäisyyttä. Nationalismiin liittyvät kysymykset, kuten hollannin kielen ja kulttuurin korostaminen, kulkivat jokseenkin käsi kädessä autonomian laajentamista, erityisesti Flanderin itsenäisyyttä, koskevien asenteiden kanssa. Näistä neljästä puolueesta alueelliset flaaminationalistiset puolueet, jotka keskittyivät Flanderin autonomian kasvattamiseen, painottivat eniten myös hollannin kieltä ja kulttuuria, edustaen täten vahvinta flaamilaista identiteettiä. Sosialistipuolue ei sen sijaan juurikaan kiinnittänyt huomiota hollannin kieleen ja kulttuuriin, paitsi 1990-luvulla, ja sillä olikin heikoin flaamilainen identiteetti. Kristillisdemokraatit ja liberaalit asettuivat näiden väliin tuomalla esiin vahvaa flaamilaista identiteettiä mutta myös selkeää belgialaista identiteettiä. Analysoidut parlamenttikeskustelut tukivat puolueohjelmien analyysissä saatuja tuloksia. Samanlaista kehitystä voidaan havaita myös puolueiden suhtautumisessa EU:n aluepolitiikkaan. Aluepolitiikka sai eniten huomiota puolueohjelmissa 1990-luvulla, ja Flanderia pidettiin jopa itsenäisenä toimijana EU:ssa. Alueellisten, Flanderin kansallismielisten puolueiden lisäksi myös perinteiset puolueet keskittyivät aluepoliittisiin asioihin 1990-luvulla. Vuoteen 2010 mennessä aluepolitiikan painotus oli laskenut muiden puolueiden keskuudessa, paitsi Flanderin kansallismielisen puolueen, N-VA:n puolueohjelmassa. N-VA jopa ehdotti vuoden 2010 vaaliohjelmassaan, että Flanderin olisi haettava EU:n jäsenyyttä. Flaamien vaatimukset entistä syvemmästä autonomiasta johtivat ensimmäiseen valtioreformiin vuonna 1970. Sen jälkeen Belgia siirtyi vähitellen kohti liittovaltiota. Belgian liittovaltio on ainutlaatuinen ja äärimmäisen monimutkainen, eikä sillä ole juurikaan yhtäläisyyksiä perinteisten liittovaltioiden kanssa. Belgian valtiorakenne sisältää myös joitakin konfederalistisia elementtejä. Voisi ajatella, että liittovaltion muodostamisen jälkeen kaikki olisivat olleet tyytyväisiä, mutta toisin kävi. Uusia valtioreformeja on toteutettu vuoden 1993 jälkeenkin – viimeisin vuonna 2011. Näyttää siltä, että uusia on vielä tulossa, sillä monet Flanderin puolueista kannattavat Belgian kehittymistä kohti konfederaatiota. Belgia on edelleen murroksessa. Tämä pinta-alaltaan pieni EU:n keskus on ollut poliittisten kriisien keskellä useammin kuin kerran viime vuosikymmenten aikana. Aina on kuitenkin onnistuttu löytämään "belgialainen kompromissi" (compromis à la Belge) . Näyttääkin siltä, että Belgiassa on yritetty löytää tasapaino siitä lähtien, kun maasta tuli itsenäinen vuonna 1830. Federalismi on ollut yksi tärkeä askel kohti vakaampaa yhteiskuntaa. Se on auttanut Belgiaa lisäämään alueiden toimivaltaa vähitellen ilman suurempaa kuohuntaa, ja siirtymään samalla rauhanomaisesti kohti konfederaatiota. Flanderin itsenäisyyteen pyrkivät poliittiset puolueet ovat kuitenkin hyvin suosittuja, mikä asettaa haasteita yhtenäiselle Belgialle. Maa, jossa konsensus ja kaikkia tyydyttävän ratkaisun löytäminen on ollut tärkeä väline päätöksenteossa, saattaa joutua kohtaamaan vakavia aikoja, jos Flanderin kansallismielisten puolueiden tuki kasvaa edelleen. Todellinen kysymys kuuluukin, ovatko flaamit valmiita uudelleen "belgialaiseen kompromissiin", vai onko flaamien aika ottaa Flanderi lopullisesti itselleen – Vlaanderen aan de vlamingen? ; Over the past several decades Europe has seen the rise of nationalism. This evolution has been especially visible in Catalonia and Scotland, but also Belgium has witnessed significant erosion of the traditional nation-state. Over the years, Flemish-speaking Flanders has demanded more rights, competences, and autonomy. As a consequence, Belgium turned from a unitary state to a federal state in 1993. Since then, the popularity of political parties that support the independence of Flanders has further increased. This study deals with Flemish nationalism and positions of the main Flemish political parties towards extending autonomy from 1970s to 2010. I concentrate on the expansion of autonomy and the development of federalism in Belgium over these decades. My main focus is on Flanders, but I also look at the future of the whole Belgium. The primary goal of this study is to identify what kind of attitudes the main Flemish political parties had towards extending the autonomy of Flanders in their political party programmes from the 1970s to 2010. Accordingly, I look at the issues, which are closely linked to Flemish nationalism, such as Dutch language, culture and identity. Finally, I discuss how much political party programmes put attention on regional policies in the European fora. Moreover, I will ask do they see Flanders as an independent player or together with Belgium when acting in the European or international arena? In terms of time, this study focuses on three significant periods in Belgium's political history: 1970, 1993 and 2010. The first turning point, the state reform of 1970, defined cultural communities to accommodate the demands of Flemish people for cultural autonomy. Afterwards, Belgium took the path towards federation. The second turning point, the Constitution of May 1993, is a milestone in the political history of Belgium because it formally characterised Belgium as a federal state. Finally, the last turning point is the premature federal elections of 2010. This period was chosen because the winner, the N-VA, clearly declared that its goal was to achieve the independence for Flanders. I tackle the research questions by using qualitative approach. I will analyse my primary source material, the political party programmes of the main Flemish political parties, from the years 1971/1972, 1991, 1995 and 2010. By using conceptual content analysis as my main method, I concentrate in my analysing process on certain concepts related to the context of my study, such as federalism, nationalism and identity. In addition to party programmes, representing traditional Catholic, Socialist and Liberal pillars as well as more and more popular regional and Flemish nationalist political parties, I present Parliament discussions enlightening the political situation in 1969, 1988 and 2013. Moreover, I utilise theoretical and historical research literature, such as Daniel Elazar's theory of federal political systems and Benedict Anderson's theory of nationalism and 'imagined communities'. The main findings of this study reveal that there definitely are clear differences between Flemish political party programmes' attitudes towards extending autonomy. Socialist parties emphasised a united Belgium more than other parties, even though also Socialist parties have supported decentralisation and federalism. The regionalist and Flemish nationalist parties were even in favour of the independence of Flanders while the Christian Democratic and Liberal parties aligned in the middle, supporting confederal model in 2010, but resisting strongly the independence of Flanders. Nationalist matters, like emphasising Dutch language and culture, went somewhat hand in hand with the attitudes towards extending autonomy, more precisely whether party saw Flanders' future as an independent country or as a part of Belgium. Of these four parties, the regionalist and Flemish nationalist parties underscored the most the Dutch language and culture. These parties also manifested the strongest Flemish identity. Socialist parties did not set much focus on nationalist matters, like Dutch language and culture, except for a while in 1990s, and presented the weakest Flemish identity. Christian Democratic and Liberal parties positioned themselves in the middle with a significant Flemish identity, but also with a relevant Belgian identity. Overall, the discussions and debates analysed supported all the findings found in the political party programmes. A similar development can also be seen in parties' EU policies. By the 1990s, regionalisation received increasingly attention in the party programmes, and Flanders was seen as an independent actor in the EU arena. In addition to the regionalist party, also the traditional parties focused on regionalist matters in the 1990s. By 2010, the attention on regionalist matters was decreasing, except in the party programme of the Flemish nationalist party, N-VA. It even suggested that Flanders should pursue membership in the EU. The demand of Flemish people led to the first state reform in 1970. Afterwards, Belgium headed for federation – in a Belgian way. The Belgian federation is unique and extremely complex, with almost no similarities to classic federations displaying also some characteristics of confederalism. One might think that becoming a federation finally would be the end of all institutional changes, but Belgium continues to undergo change. Belgium has been in the middle of political crises more than once during recent decades. However, the solution 'compromis à la Belge' has been found every time. New state reforms have been made since 1993, the last one in 2011, and I envisage that new ones are yet to come. It seems that Belgium has tried to find a balance ever since it declared independence, and federalism has been just one step towards this equilibrium. For the most part, however, all this has happened step by step, without greater turbulence. Federalism has enabled Belgium to move towards more extending autonomy, confederalism, in a peaceful way. Nevertheless, the political parties that aspire to the independence of Flanders are very popular, which definitely poses challenges to a united Belgium. The country, where consociationalism has been an important tool in the policy-making, may face some serious times if the support of Flemish nationalist parties continues to grow. More or less, the real question is whether Flemish people are ready for another compromis à la Belge , or is it time to have Flanders for themselves – Vlaanderen aan de vlamingen?

COVID-19 pandemic has had a far-reaching impact along the agricultural value chains in Kenya. The Kenyan government placed drastic impact measures to flatten the curve of COVID-19 infections, which affected the value chain actors differently. To counter the economic mayhem caused by the pandemic, the usefulness of digital platforms has been amplified in agricultural value chains, especially in vegetables, root and tubers. It is not clear if, how and to what extent the existing digital platforms developed by several private companies or supported by donors have contributed and are still contributing to maintaining agri-food chains functional and securing the livelihoods of associated value chain actors in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMIC) countries during COVID 19 pandemic. It is on the foregoing that International Potato Center (CIP) implemented a study to understand the role of digital platforms in maintaining the value chains of vegetable, root and tuber crops functional in the face of COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. Web-based portal, Android mobile App and Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) Short code services were the main digital platforms of focus. The study was built on case studies from Viazi Soko (NCPK) digital platform for farmers, Twiga food for traders and Soko Kijiji groceries digital platform for consumers. A participatory research methodology was used to integrate the desktop research, key informant/expert interviews, focus group discussion (FGD) and the surveys involving various value chain actors along the food value chain i.e., traders, transporters, consumers, and farmers. The study adopted mixed method approach with concurrent nested option. Both Quantitative and qualitative data were collected. Quantitative aspects of the study were collected using a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face interviews to solicit primary information from 355 consumers, 100 traders and 370 farmers in the targeted sub-counties selected using multistage sampling technique. Quantitative data obtained was analyzed using Stata version 17 and SPSS version 28.0 to generate descriptive statistics. Propensity Score Matching was used to estimate the impact of the digital platforms on (i) the quantity of certified potato seeds used and (ii) the average weekly household expenditure on vegetables and fruits during the lockdown period. Structural equation model (SEM) was used to investigate (i) how producers' personality traits influence the usage of ViaziSoko for accessing quality farm Inputs and services and (ii) the role of entrepreneurial behavior in influencing use of digital platform in food purchase among consumers. For farmers, findings indicated that awareness and use of the digital platforms is still low. Approximately 32% of the interviewed farmers were aware of the digital platforms. Majority (86.55%) of those aware were medium and large-scale farmers. The use of apps through a mobile phone was the most preferred digital platform by roughly 91% of the farmers. The ease of accessing input information/services and awareness of digital application inspired the use of digital platforms. Farmers' attitude and proactiveness influenced perceived usefulness of the digital platforms. Despite being in existence even before the pandemic, most of the farmers started using digital platforms in response to the pandemic. Relatively, majority of farmers (32.05%) started using digital platforms to access quality seeds, while 12.82% started using them to access extension and advisory services on Good Advisory Practices (GAPs)as well as access to market/output information in response to the pandemic. The digital intervention contributed significantly to the increase in the frequency of use of digital platforms. The greatest increase in the frequency was observed in the services related to access to market/output information 3.85% (from 19.23% to 23.08%), extension and advisory services on GAPs 6.41% (from 16.67% to 23.08%) as well as pest and disease advisory services 6.41% (from 12.82% to 19.23%) respectively. The digital platform showed a gradual role in bridging the gap in terms of input access by farmers during the pandemic and approximately 95% of the interviewed farmers confirmed their intention to continue using the digital platforms (ViaziSoko) beyond the pandemic. For traders, the results revealed that most of them had procured their supplies over the mobile phone (91%) and through online platform (81%). On average, a single trader dealt in 16 different products. Vegetables was the most traded commodity across the three tie periods of analysis compared to roots and tubers. Fear or worry of getting infected with COVID-19 and liquidity constrain were the major threats affecting the business. Most of the traders procured their supplies from Nakuru before and during COVID-19 (77.97% and 88.52%). The increase in supplies during COVID-19 for Nakuru county resulted from Twiga foods supplies. Other traders procured their supplies from Nyandurua, Meru and Narok county. The quantity of vegetables and fruits sold to direct consumers, brokers/agents and sold to other outlets increased during COVID-19. Most traders (90.12%) started using online platform and 82.35% social media in response to the pandemic. Despite being the most adopted strategy in response to the pandemic, about 15% of traders are likely to cease or reduce the use of mobile phones to procure their supplies. This could be attributed to the high transaction costs involved in making payments for the supplies. Further, based on the perishability nature of agricultural products, traders would wish to physically see and choose products before making payments. Major sales and distribution strategies used in response to the pandemic are sales and distribution through social media (54.55%) and online platform (66.67%). Majority of traders (86%) reported to have made payments and financing electronically followed by advancing products as in-kind/trade creditors (73%) and lending cash to business partners (72%). Change in business working hours to avoid curfew and travel restrictions (90%) as well as the use of own savings to support business operation (86%) were the major business adaptation strategies used by traders. For consumers, about 41% used digital platforms to purchase fruits and vegetables out of which 97% of them used mobile application. Convenience (95.86%) and fear of health-related complication (84.83%) were the major motivational factors to use digital platforms. COVID-19 pandemic increased the demand for digital platforms among 85% of the consumers (where 63% started using and 22% increased the use digital platforms). About 81% of consumers were mainly using digital platforms to access market information. Consumer willingness to adopt the digital platform was influenced positively by group membership and negatively by age and education level of the household head and the dependency ratio. Group membership were basically social and informal groups in the urban areas where among other issues consumers discuss food and digital related issues as well as procurement strategies) Most consumers (76.56%) purchased fruits and vegetables from designated points followed by local retailers in the neighborhood (49.26%). Digital platforms gained popularity (from 13.35% to 38.53%) during the pandemic compared to other channels Streetcar booths (2.83%) was a new channel during the pandemic. Despite reducing popularity during the pandemic, designated markets channel supported about 48% of the proportion of purchase. Users of digital platform experienced fluctuating but above average in the weekly expenditure compared to their counterparts. Change in price of the vegetables and fruits was the major contributor to the fluctuation (90.54%). Findings revealed that at one point in time during the pandemic. all sampled consumers who purchased through the digital platform used mobile money transfer to make pay for fruits and vegetables, with 99.31% likely to continue using the platform beyond the pandemic. In terms of entrepreneurial behavior, proactiveness and Innovativeness positively and significantly influenced perceived behavioral control. This implies that the more a consumer acts in anticipation of future problems, needs, or changes and use of new ideas or methods, the more they will think of themselves as having the efficacy to use the digital platforms in purchasing vegetables. Attitude positively and significantly influence perceived usefulness implying that the more favorable a consumer's opinion of the vegetables purchasing digital tool is, the more the consumer will view the tool as useful. Perceived behavioral control influenced perceived usefulness positively implying that the more consumers considered themselves to have the ability to use the vegetables purchasing digital tool, the higher they will consider the tool as useful. Subjective norm was also found to positively and significantly influence perceived usefulness meaning that the more positive the consumer's peers' opinion about the vegetables purchasing digital tool is, the more the consumer will view the tool as useful. The study recommends the following suggestions: • It is clear agritech companies seeing pandemic is an opportunity for strengthening food value chain. However, they still lack sustainable business models for the agriculture contexts. Therefore, design for digital platforms need to integrate sustainable business models to avoid collapsing of the platforms due to heavy reliance on external support and inadequate revenue models. Adoption of a self-sustainable business approach as well as re-orienting the business approach towards public private partnerships and diversifying product/service portfolio by integrating different services and value chains, backward and forward integration to create new revenue streams provides some of the options for consideration by service providers. • Develop a framework for embedding farmer oriented in existing local extension services to support practical implementation of agronomic recommendations. • Enhancing entrepreneur behavior of farmers and traders is critical in adoption of agri-digital solutions. • Building agile business with flexibility to adjust to various shocks beyond the pandemic. Focusing on the transition post COVID will be critical in maintaining the business space of the digital platforms by building strong market offering. • Donor support is critical for digital startups at the beginning of the business as many startups are coming up during this pandemic time, however, it is critical for donor to analyze their business model for sustainability of digital platform especially the platforms with little or no commercial orientation but have a clear welfare gain with social enterprise business model. • Strong bio-security measures in the context of COVID-19 are important in enhancing trust especially in product handling by the agricultural digital service providers. • Combined county permits to allow one easily transaction in any county with fresh produce among digital platforms with strong cross county distribution of products to traders. This has implication in increasing cost of business. • Product differentiation is key in making the digital platforms competitiveness. Strong focus of the digital platforms in providing unique products and solutions in ever-changing environment is key in keeping pace with consumers dynamic needs, key among them Enhance interactiveness between agricultural digital solutions and clients e.g. chatbot Integrating youth entrepreneurs and higher education students to support development of ICT related agri solutions e.g., accessible database by use of USSD code for vendors to easily authenticate the quality of the produce as well as data science. This will facilitate creation of robust learning curve to trigger development of marketable and viable agricultural digital services.

Relevance of the research problem. Sport is a value of every nation, which includes the system of physical, spiritual and cultural education, sports achievements, scientific knowledge, international communication (Karoblis, 2005). High level sport is inseparable from competitive activities, the pursuit of sports results (Hargreaves & MacDonald, 2000; Karoblis, 2005). The special training of athletes in the chosen sports is a part of general education of personality, which has a close connection with social, educational, political, economic issues of humanity development (Johnson et al., 2007). The athlete training process is a multi-year educational process of a specific structure and organizational form, which develops physical characteristics of an athlete, determines his activity, behavior, independence and responsibility, promotes to achieve excellent results. However, optimization of athlete training technology, construction of training system and its filling with full content still have the greatest impact on the improvement of sports results (Bompa & Buzzichelli, 2018; Karoblis, 2005; Платонов, 2004). Management of high-performance athlete training is related to prognostication, individual model characteristics of sport fitness, general and special load ratio, search for new effective directions of workout methodology, modeling of competition activity indicators, workout process planning, competition program conclusion, sport training adjustment (Karoblis, Raslanas, Steponavičius, 2002). Track-and-field athletics is integral sports that combine cyclic and acyclic exercise competitions: running, throws, vertical and horizontal jumps (Armonavičius, 1995). Short distance running is one of the most prestigious track-and-field athletics competitions. An exceptional short distance motor feature is the maximum intense activity of the whole body, especially the nervous and muscular systems, lasting from 0.1 to 40–50 s (Stanislovaitis et al., 2008). The ever-improving sports results reveal new human mental and physical abilities, vast resources of the body that could not even be dreamed of before. The organization of exercise, methodology, their scope and intensity, their combination with the means of recovery according to the main laws of phenotypic adaptation form the basis for the training of high-performance athletes (Платонов, 2004; Stonkus, 2000; Issurin, 2008; Krylovas, Kosareva, Dadelienė, & Dadelo, 2020). The particularity of the sport is based on competition. The results recorded in sport receive global recognition and become a true human achievement standard. In the world, they are constantly progressing, promoting the development of the sport community, therefore the greatest human intellectual and material resources are directed to the training of high-performance athletes (Skernevičius, 2015; Krylovas, Kosareva, Dadelienė, & Dadelo, 2020). However, the results of a research conducted by scientists showed that over the past nearly 20 years, elite athletes, including Olympic, world champions and prizewinners, have achieved personal best results in key competitions of the season by only in 50 percent cases (Yakimovich & Ovchinnikov, 2016). This shows that the opinion that contemporary coaches are high-performance and knowledgeable in the training of elite athletes and immaculately control and manage the process of sport training of athletes is not sufficiently substantiated. It has been established that the development of high-performance sprinters depends on many factors, the most important of which is the directionality of the training process, its management, taking into account the individual characteristics of the athlete's body adaptation to workout and competition loads (Stanislovaitis, 2008; Бондаренко, 1999; Нбанекова, Филин, 1995). The training of sprinters and their competitive activities have been extensively studied not only by foreign (Smith, 2005; Doscher, 2009; Kale & Bayrak, 2009; Prins, Murata, Derenne, Morgan, & Solomon, 2010; Dickin, Reyes, & Dolny, 2009; Nelson, Landin, Young, & Schexnayder, 2008; Eikenberry, Mcauliffe, Welsh, Zerpa, Mcpherson, & Newhouse, 2008; Oзoлин, 1986), but also by Lithuanian sport scientists (Stanislovaitis, 2008, 2006, 2005; Grūnovas, 2006; Butkus, 2006, 1995; Skurvydas, 1999, 2003; Bradauskienė, 2006). Although the world record of female sprinters in a 100 m distance is quite high (10.49 s), the search for new training methods and their application in the process of female sprinter workouts continues. Scientists are not only analyzing and evaluating existing workout methodological tools, but also looking for new methods for an advanced sprinter training process. Thus, in search of new methods to increase running speed, through more research and the application of the latest training technologies, methods can be discovered to help athletes to become faster and to develop a running speed, which has never been achieved before. Recently, in a 100 m running, as in many track-and-field athletics competitions, the results of athletes are progressing rapidly. That progress depends heavily on the selection of talented athletes, scientifically and practically sound and effective workout methodologies, the selection and application of remedial measures, the material compensation of athletes, which greatly increases motivation of athletes, and etc. Therefore, in order to achieve good results and prizes in high rank competition in contemporary sport, it is necessary to know the peculiarities of the application of training methodology, to properly select the most important starts of the annual training cycle, taking into account all conditions at the place and time of competition. An athlete and a coach must not only follow the innovations of training methodology, science and medicine, but also look back, be able to analyze his own results and the results of athletes, who have shown significant results theretofore, the peculiarities of workout tools and methods applied by them, the reasons for successful and unsuccessful starts, and then all this to apply to the management of his own training process. Discovering, revealing and learning about new technologies through the theory and didactics of sport workout is the most important function of sport science (Mester, 2003), and it is important for a coach to be able to use scientific results and recommendations, be insightful and be able to successfully model the training of elite athletes (Karoblis, Raslanas, Poteliūnienė, Steponavičius, Petkus, & Žilinskienė, 2011). The purposeful training of female sprinters and the search for effective technologies in order to increase the maximum running speed become a scientific problem. The presented scientific problem is relevant for the following reasons: ● It is important to analyze the change in results in terms of age and to determine the age, at which the highest results are achieved; ● It is important to research and theoretically substantiate, which components determine the sports result in short distance running; ● To research the effectiveness of training measures in order to increase maximum running speed; ● The contribution of running at maximum speed to the sports result in a 100 m run has not been sufficiently researched; ● It is important to establish criteria that affect the progress of athletes' mastery and the change of sport performance. Hypothesis. It is likely that sports results of female sprinters are not improving due to the integrated and concentrated training models applied separately. A universal speed training model is more effective. Object of the research is the process of female sprinter training. Aim is to identify the peculiarities of optimizing the training of high-performance female sprinters. Objectives of the research: 1. On the basis of the data of the theoretical analysis of scientific sources, to reveal the change of the results of high-performance female sprinters in terms of age. 2. To perform a comparative analysis of the preparation of high-performance female spriners for the Athens, Beijing, London and Rio Olympic Games. 3. To review the technologies of sports training of female sprinters and to examine the factors influencing their results. 4. To determine the effectiveness of a universal method for training the speed of high-performance female sprinters. 5. To reveal/identify the opinion of high-performance female sprinters about the factors determining their training system. Theoretical and practical significance Researching the structure and content of sports training for female sprinters of different ages and sports mastery, analyzing the change of sports results in terms of age, evaluating workout methods, running speed components, the provisions for effective running speed increase were identified: ● Running speed is determined by the speed of muscle contraction, the length of leg support, the frequency of steps, and the sports result in a 100-meter run depends mainly on the maximum running speed. ● In order to improve the results of the maximum running speed of female sprinters, it is important to apply a universal, combined method in the workout process, running with weight and stretching with an elastic band. These provisions are relevant to the theory and practice of female sprinter training. The results of the study can be used in the development of training programs for sports schools and high-performance female sprinters. CONCLUSIONS 1. The age for achieving the best personal result in the women's 100 m running competition is 24.69 ± 3.27 year. The best Lithuanian sprinter L. Grinčikaitė-Samuolė achieved her best result in this running competition at the age of 25 – 11.19 s. At the beginning of their athletic career, American sprinters had the highest running scores and dominated until the age of 17, however later is observed leadership of the Caribbean Region female sprinters up to the age of 35. The results of European sprinters were average in almost all age groups. 2. Analysis of the four Olympic Games revealed a significant improvement in the results of the 100 m running and starting reaction speed (p < 0.05). In order to get to in the 100 m running final, athletes should run an average of 10.96 ± 0.03 s, and to become the prizewinners of the competition – 10.86 ± 0.08 s. Sprinters become the prizewinners of the 100 m run at the age of 25.42 ± 3.18 year. 3. Lithuanian female sprinters lose to the best sprinters of Europe and the world in the competition requiring the maximum running speed – 40 m in acceleration (11.99 %). The best Lithuanian sprinter L. Grinčikaitė-Samuolė reduces this difference to 4.05 % in the 100 m running distance, the gap between Europe's and the world's best female sprinters is gradually declining due to improved European sprinters' maximum running speed results. 4. The resisted/assisted running method is the most effective way to increase the running speed and starting acceleration, as this speed training method significantly improves the values of step length and support duration than running normally. 5. High-performance female sprinters lack attention to an important component of training – psychological training – in the process of their sports training. It was found out that their sports training and improvement of results are more influenced by external (monetary prizes, premiums) than internal motives (desire to improve results, honor to represent their country). A coach's personality also has impact. The coach is valued not only as a specialist, but distinguishing his personal qualities, such as sincerity, friendliness, motivation, promotion is considered an integral part of the training process.

The TransAID project defines, develops and evaluates traffic management measures based on V2X equipped road infrastructure, primarily via simulations,to eliminate or mitigate the negative effects of Transition of Control (ToC) along Transition Areas in future mixed traffic scenarios where automated, cooperative, and conventional vehicles will coexist.This document aggregates, integrates, and analyses the results of the TransAID work packages. For each aspect of TransAID the major findings are presented and discussed.As a basis for the simulation studies several vehicle models were implemented successfully to create the right behaviour for lane changing(including cooperative versions), car following (including (C)ACC)and ToC/MRM algorithms. These models were created using a solid theoretical background, however, the availability of real-world data for input and calibration was very limited. From the baseline simulation runs we found that ToCs do not significantly disrupt traffic flow performance unless CAVs establish increased car-following headways during the ToC preparation phase. Disruptions escalate in case of CACC driving, increased share of CAVs in the fleet mix, and the occurrence of multiple ToCs within a narrow temporal window and spatial domain. Furthermore, in the case that a ToC is unsuccessful or not possible, unmanaged MRMs (taking place in lane and not being guided towards safe spots) can induce significant traffic disruption as well. On the other hand, simulation results indicated that cooperative lane changes minimize the frequency of ToC/MRM and their consequent adverse impacts on trafficflow operations. The benefits of cooperative lane changing are amplified with increasing share of CAVs and especially upstream of lanedrop locations.Building upon the vehicle models, simulations and the defined use cases, specific traffic measureswere developed to mitigate the effects of ToC events in transition areas. The traffic measures were implemented to study their effectiveness. Specifically, for each of the selected use cases the effects of the TransAID measures are evaluated regarding emissions, safety and efficiency. There is a trade-off between traffic safety versus traffic efficiency (as measured via throughput and travel times). It is often inherently difficult or even impossible to optimise both in the same context. Hence, typically a policy choice needs to be made, as to which of the two will have to be prioritised. Otherwise, results either improved or remained similar for all use cases and KPIs, with the exception of use case 3.1 (see Section 2.2.2 for details and Table 1at the end of Chapter 6). All use cases have in common that a reduction of MRMs is possible by providing infrastructure advice. Such advice, and the availability of safe spots, clearly reduces the number of stopped vehicles blocking the road.There is also a heavy dependence of the results on the mixture of vehicle types, in addition to the observation that less efficient traffic management performance is obtained for a higher LOS. The latter is in part logical, as for higher LOS there is more prominent congestion and the physical limits of the infrastructure remain a hard obstacle. By itself this is not a problem for TransAID, as the focus of the traffic management schemes is to prevent/postpone traffic breakdowns before they occur. While implementing and testing the traffic measures TransAIDalso identified or created the needed message sets and protocols to implement the measures using V2X communications. To that end, no new message sets wereneeded, but (minor) extensions to CAM, DENM, MCM and MAPEM were necessary. Especially MCM from the Manoeuvre Coordination Service (MCS) is key to multiple types of use case. Therefore, it is necessary to define a MCS that is valid for all types of scenarios. Aligned with the work of ETSI and by actively contributing, TransAID has proposed a MCS where the infrastructure takes an active role to facilitate the manoeuvres of vehicles and to increase the overall traffic flow and safety. The traffic management measures designed in TransAID also require that CAVs and road infrastructure units have an accurate perception of the environment. In addition to the MCS, TransAID has contributed to the evaluation and evolution of ETSI's Collective Perception Service (CPS) for cooperative perception. We have demonstrated that cooperative perception can improve CAVs perception capabilities when the trade-off between the perception capabilities and communications performance is balanced. Furthermore, the reliability of V2X communications has been addressed in TransAID using different and complementary techniques: compression, congestion control and acknowledgements.Besides the V2X communication, the communication to unequipped vehicles was of importanceand consisted of two parts. On the one hand, infrastructure needs to inform unequipped vehicles about issues on the road. On the other, automated vehicles themselves should provide information about their actual state to their surroundings, to avoid negative impacts.With regards to the infrastructure information, it needs to be mentioned that visual information on signs, variable or static, will never be as precise as V2X communication could be, esp. when looking to individual advices. Nevertheless, infrastructure can provide valuable information also to unequipped vehicles by signage, e.g., in terms of speed limits, distance (gap) advice or dynamic lane assignments.It will be required to create additional road signs dealing with automated vehicles, at least showing that, e.g.,an area is prohibited for automated vehicles or an area where only automated vehicles are allowed.Regarding signals from automated vehicles, TransAID's solution of having LED light strips at the back of AVswill be beneficial in any case, but the exact content of such lights needs to be defined by performing more detailed analyses of such components. This goes to all external and dynamic HMI components of automated vehicles. In this light, it will be crucial to have an intuitive way of understanding the automation related additional information. One key question in this area is if driving with enabled automation should be indicated by an additional external light, and if so, where should this light be and whatcolour?Combining the work on the traffic measures and communications, the iTETRIS framework was used to evaluate the selected use cases while deploying the traffic measures using V2X. The goal was to see if the V2X communications impacted the effectiveness of the measures in any way.After adding V2X, the simulation results forthe project's first and second iteration use cases showed very similar results to the previous evaluation. All traffic measures were found robust enough to show the same results as with idealV2X, even in light of increased traffic demand and thus more V2X enabled vehicles.There were some minor differences between the realistic V2X and ideal V2X implementations, but those could be traced back to easily fixed technical aspects (see Section 2.4 for details). As a final step in our use case assessment,the feasibility of measures and communications introduced were implemented in real-world demonstrators. The real-world implementation was done by performing three different feasibility assessments. Two of them have been performed on test tracks in Germany, and one on public roads in The Netherlands. On the test tracks, several detailed tests of all scenarios have been performed, revealing that all traffic management measures could be successfully integratedand applied to automated vehicles in all use cases and scenarios. This includes the successful setup of the RSI and the automated vehicles. It has to be mentioned, though, that the implementation was done in a prototypic way.The development of related series products would require much more testing under real world conditions, which will be challenging at the current time since no highly automated vehicles are present on the roads. Nevertheless, it is very important to start the investigations at present times. As already described in Section 3.3, standardisation of messages is happening already now, and it was very important to include the role of the infrastructure at this stage. The detailed results of the real-world implementations per use case can be found in Section 2.5.In addition to the design and technical implementation of traffic measures in simulation and the real-world, TransAID gained some insights on issues of a less technical nature. For example, it was determined a close collaboration between OEMs and (N)RAs would be beneficial in the identification and managing of TAs. To facilitate such a collaboration TransAID proposes a traffic management frameworkin the form of an intermediary service provider, acting as a trusted (and possibly mandated) third party. The framework allows TransAID to be scaled up and generalised. We approached this from both a technical and a business-oriented perspective. For TransAID to become part of a complete traffic management system, we focused on the technical side on how to detect transition areas, select (and possibly combine) services, and then detect when they are most appropriately timed for deployment. To this end, detection can be done via the infrastructure (e.g. road sensors or even digital communication infrastructure), via the OEMs, or by comparing an infrastructure's newly-defined ISAD level (Infrastructure Support levels for Automated Driving; see Section 1.4.2) to theoperational design domain (ODD, see Section 1.4.1) of the vehicle.Considering the mentioned technical challenges (detecting TAs, selecting services, and timing their deployment), the intermediary service bridges all these parties in such a way that the detection of TAs is performed in a centralised way, and OEMs and (national) road authorities ((N)RAs) have a single point of contact for providing and receiving information about TAs.Another point where OEMs and (national) authorities could collaborate,is the legislation related to automated driving since an important gap in current modelling and legalisation is how (C)AVs would/should react when (given) advice and/or actions conflict with traffic laws. With the real-time coordinated instructions of a TMC, (C)AVs should drive adequately during their journeys. However, it is necessary to concern to what extent such instructions should/can be made, especially when considering legal issues.In addition, legal aspects like the definition of special signage for automated vehicles and their handlingalso need to be considered, as those aspects will take time. This also means signage at the roadside, including VMS content, and signage from automated vehicles to surrounding traffic.Collaboration is also required regarding the definition and standardisation of V2X messages and protocols. The mechanisms proposed in TransAID to improve the reliability of V2X messages can be key in the near future. In general, V2X communications solutions require to be incorporated into standards to be effectively deployed. That is the case for, for example, collective perception solutions, message generation rules for manoeuvre coordination, V2X message compression or broadcast acknowledgement mechanisms. In TransAID we have been intensively working to promote and disseminate all the proposed solutions in top-tier journals and international conferences, as well as in organisations like ETSI and C2C-CC. The above shows a broad range of aspects studied by TransAID in the very dynamic and rapidly evolving field of automated driving.To provide links to additional information and to place the work of TransAID into context, Chapter 5 provides an overview or close related initiatives.

Relevance of the research problem. Sport is a value of every nation, which includes the system of physical, spiritual and cultural education, sports achievements, scientific knowledge, international communication (Karoblis, 2005). High level sport is inseparable from competitive activities, the pursuit of sports results (Hargreaves & MacDonald, 2000; Karoblis, 2005). The special training of athletes in the chosen sports is a part of general education of personality, which has a close connection with social, educational, political, economic issues of humanity development (Johnson et al., 2007). The athlete training process is a multi-year educational process of a specific structure and organizational form, which develops physical characteristics of an athlete, determines his activity, behavior, independence and responsibility, promotes to achieve excellent results. However, optimization of athlete training technology, construction of training system and its filling with full content still have the greatest impact on the improvement of sports results (Bompa & Buzzichelli, 2018; Karoblis, 2005; Платонов, 2004). Management of high-performance athlete training is related to prognostication, individual model characteristics of sport fitness, general and special load ratio, search for new effective directions of workout methodology, modeling of competition activity indicators, workout process planning, competition program conclusion, sport training adjustment (Karoblis, Raslanas, Steponavičius, 2002). Track-and-field athletics is integral sports that combine cyclic and acyclic exercise competitions: running, throws, vertical and horizontal jumps (Armonavičius, 1995). Short distance running is one of the most prestigious track-and-field athletics competitions. An exceptional short distance motor feature is the maximum intense activity of the whole body, especially the nervous and muscular systems, lasting from 0.1 to 40–50 s (Stanislovaitis et al., 2008). The ever-improving sports results reveal new human mental and physical abilities, vast resources of the body that could not even be dreamed of before. The organization of exercise, methodology, their scope and intensity, their combination with the means of recovery according to the main laws of phenotypic adaptation form the basis for the training of high-performance athletes (Платонов, 2004; Stonkus, 2000; Issurin, 2008; Krylovas, Kosareva, Dadelienė, & Dadelo, 2020). The particularity of the sport is based on competition. The results recorded in sport receive global recognition and become a true human achievement standard. In the world, they are constantly progressing, promoting the development of the sport community, therefore the greatest human intellectual and material resources are directed to the training of high-performance athletes (Skernevičius, 2015; Krylovas, Kosareva, Dadelienė, & Dadelo, 2020). However, the results of a research conducted by scientists showed that over the past nearly 20 years, elite athletes, including Olympic, world champions and prizewinners, have achieved personal best results in key competitions of the season by only in 50 percent cases (Yakimovich & Ovchinnikov, 2016). This shows that the opinion that contemporary coaches are high-performance and knowledgeable in the training of elite athletes and immaculately control and manage the process of sport training of athletes is not sufficiently substantiated. It has been established that the development of high-performance sprinters depends on many factors, the most important of which is the directionality of the training process, its management, taking into account the individual characteristics of the athlete's body adaptation to workout and competition loads (Stanislovaitis, 2008; Бондаренко, 1999; Нбанекова, Филин, 1995). The training of sprinters and their competitive activities have been extensively studied not only by foreign (Smith, 2005; Doscher, 2009; Kale & Bayrak, 2009; Prins, Murata, Derenne, Morgan, & Solomon, 2010; Dickin, Reyes, & Dolny, 2009; Nelson, Landin, Young, & Schexnayder, 2008; Eikenberry, Mcauliffe, Welsh, Zerpa, Mcpherson, & Newhouse, 2008; Oзoлин, 1986), but also by Lithuanian sport scientists (Stanislovaitis, 2008, 2006, 2005; Grūnovas, 2006; Butkus, 2006, 1995; Skurvydas, 1999, 2003; Bradauskienė, 2006). Although the world record of female sprinters in a 100 m distance is quite high (10.49 s), the search for new training methods and their application in the process of female sprinter workouts continues. Scientists are not only analyzing and evaluating existing workout methodological tools, but also looking for new methods for an advanced sprinter training process. Thus, in search of new methods to increase running speed, through more research and the application of the latest training technologies, methods can be discovered to help athletes to become faster and to develop a running speed, which has never been achieved before. Recently, in a 100 m running, as in many track-and-field athletics competitions, the results of athletes are progressing rapidly. That progress depends heavily on the selection of talented athletes, scientifically and practically sound and effective workout methodologies, the selection and application of remedial measures, the material compensation of athletes, which greatly increases motivation of athletes, and etc. Therefore, in order to achieve good results and prizes in high rank competition in contemporary sport, it is necessary to know the peculiarities of the application of training methodology, to properly select the most important starts of the annual training cycle, taking into account all conditions at the place and time of competition. An athlete and a coach must not only follow the innovations of training methodology, science and medicine, but also look back, be able to analyze his own results and the results of athletes, who have shown significant results theretofore, the peculiarities of workout tools and methods applied by them, the reasons for successful and unsuccessful starts, and then all this to apply to the management of his own training process. Discovering, revealing and learning about new technologies through the theory and didactics of sport workout is the most important function of sport science (Mester, 2003), and it is important for a coach to be able to use scientific results and recommendations, be insightful and be able to successfully model the training of elite athletes (Karoblis, Raslanas, Poteliūnienė, Steponavičius, Petkus, & Žilinskienė, 2011). The purposeful training of female sprinters and the search for effective technologies in order to increase the maximum running speed become a scientific problem. The presented scientific problem is relevant for the following reasons: ● It is important to analyze the change in results in terms of age and to determine the age, at which the highest results are achieved; ● It is important to research and theoretically substantiate, which components determine the sports result in short distance running; ● To research the effectiveness of training measures in order to increase maximum running speed; ● The contribution of running at maximum speed to the sports result in a 100 m run has not been sufficiently researched; ● It is important to establish criteria that affect the progress of athletes' mastery and the change of sport performance. Hypothesis. It is likely that sports results of female sprinters are not improving due to the integrated and concentrated training models applied separately. A universal speed training model is more effective. Object of the research is the process of female sprinter training. Aim is to identify the peculiarities of optimizing the training of high-performance female sprinters. Objectives of the research: 1. On the basis of the data of the theoretical analysis of scientific sources, to reveal the change of the results of high-performance female sprinters in terms of age. 2. To perform a comparative analysis of the preparation of high-performance female spriners for the Athens, Beijing, London and Rio Olympic Games. 3. To review the technologies of sports training of female sprinters and to examine the factors influencing their results. 4. To determine the effectiveness of a universal method for training the speed of high-performance female sprinters. 5. To reveal/identify the opinion of high-performance female sprinters about the factors determining their training system. Theoretical and practical significance Researching the structure and content of sports training for female sprinters of different ages and sports mastery, analyzing the change of sports results in terms of age, evaluating workout methods, running speed components, the provisions for effective running speed increase were identified: ● Running speed is determined by the speed of muscle contraction, the length of leg support, the frequency of steps, and the sports result in a 100-meter run depends mainly on the maximum running speed. ● In order to improve the results of the maximum running speed of female sprinters, it is important to apply a universal, combined method in the workout process, running with weight and stretching with an elastic band. These provisions are relevant to the theory and practice of female sprinter training. The results of the study can be used in the development of training programs for sports schools and high-performance female sprinters. CONCLUSIONS 1. The age for achieving the best personal result in the women's 100 m running competition is 24.69 ± 3.27 year. The best Lithuanian sprinter L. Grinčikaitė-Samuolė achieved her best result in this running competition at the age of 25 – 11.19 s. At the beginning of their athletic career, American sprinters had the highest running scores and dominated until the age of 17, however later is observed leadership of the Caribbean Region female sprinters up to the age of 35. The results of European sprinters were average in almost all age groups. 2. Analysis of the four Olympic Games revealed a significant improvement in the results of the 100 m running and starting reaction speed (p < 0.05). In order to get to in the 100 m running final, athletes should run an average of 10.96 ± 0.03 s, and to become the prizewinners of the competition – 10.86 ± 0.08 s. Sprinters become the prizewinners of the 100 m run at the age of 25.42 ± 3.18 year. 3. Lithuanian female sprinters lose to the best sprinters of Europe and the world in the competition requiring the maximum running speed – 40 m in acceleration (11.99 %). The best Lithuanian sprinter L. Grinčikaitė-Samuolė reduces this difference to 4.05 % in the 100 m running distance, the gap between Europe's and the world's best female sprinters is gradually declining due to improved European sprinters' maximum running speed results. 4. The resisted/assisted running method is the most effective way to increase the running speed and starting acceleration, as this speed training method significantly improves the values of step length and support duration than running normally. 5. High-performance female sprinters lack attention to an important component of training – psychological training – in the process of their sports training. It was found out that their sports training and improvement of results are more influenced by external (monetary prizes, premiums) than internal motives (desire to improve results, honor to represent their country). A coach's personality also has impact. The coach is valued not only as a specialist, but distinguishing his personal qualities, such as sincerity, friendliness, motivation, promotion is considered an integral part of the training process.

ABSTRAK Penelitian yang dilakukan ini bertujuan untuk menguji dan menganalisis pengaruh tenaga kerja dan investasi terhadap PDRB Industri Pengolahan di Pulau Jawa Tahun 2011-2017. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian deskriptif kuantitatif. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder dengan periode observasi 2011-2017 yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) maupun publikasi lainnya yang terkait. Teknik metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah regresi berganda data panel dengan model regresi Fixed Effetc Cross-Section Weight. Data diolah menggunakan Eviews 9.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tenaga kerja berpengaruh positif tetapi tidak signifikan terhadap PDRB industri pengolaan dengan koefisien 0,048110 dan nilai probabilitas sebesar 0,7183. Investasi PMA berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB Industri Pengolahan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,104161 dan nilai probabilitas uji t statistik sebesar 0,0000 atau lebih kecil dari taraf signifikan 5% atau sebesar 0,05. Investasi PMDN berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB Industri Pengolahan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,052172 dan nilai probabilitas sebesar 0,0018. Tenaga kerja dan investasi secara bersama-sama berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap kemiskinan dengan nilai F statistik 4508.827 dan Prob (F-statistic) 0,000000. Kata Kunci : PDRB Industri Pengolahan, Tenaga Kerja sektor industri, Investasi PMA sektor industri dan Investasi PMDN sektor industri. PENGARUH TENAGA KERJA DAN INVESTASI TERHADAP PDRB INDUSTRI PENGOLAHAN DI PULAU JAWA1. Latar BelakangPDRB Industri Pengolahan merupakan sektor yang berkontribusi besar terhadap perekonomian. Sektor industri dianggap sebagai mesin pertumbuhan ekonomi. Menurut Kusumantoro (2009), kebijakan pembangunan strategis sektoral adalah kebijakan pembangunan di sektor industri. Sektor tersebut dipandang sebagai sektor yang memiliki tingkat produktivitas tinggi, sehingga keunggulannya akan diperoleh nilai tambah yang tinggi. Oleh karena itu, tujuan menciptakan kesejahteraan ekonomi masyarakat dapat lebih cepat direalisasikan dengan mengembangkan sektor ini. Pulau Jawa memiliki nilai kontribusi yang besar dalam perekonomian nasional yang sebagian besar kontribusinya pada PDRB Industri Pengolahan. Disamping itu, karena perannya yang sangat penting dalam perekonomian, PDRB Industri pengolahan dipengaruhi oleh tenaga kerja sektor industri dan investasi PMA dan PMDN di sektor industri. Semakin bertambah besar lapangan kerja yang tersedia maka akan menyebabkan semakin meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi di suatu daerah. Sedangkan dengan adanya investasi maka kapasitas dalam produksi akan meningkat yang kemudian akan mempengaruhi output yang dihasilkan. Meningkatnya output akan menyebabkan peningkatan pada PDRB. Akan tetapi, tenaga kerja dan investasi selalu mengalami fluktasi yang naik turun. Maka dari itu, penelitian ini untuk melihat apakah tenaga kerja sektor industri dan investasi PMA/PMDN sektor industri berpengaruh terhadap terbentuknya PDRB industri pengolahan.2. PermasalahanAdapun Permasalahan dalam penelitian ini sebagai berikut :Apakah terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan tenaga kerja sektor industri terhadap PDRB industri pengolahan di Pulau Jawa tahun 2011-2017?Apakah terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan investasi PMA di sektor industri terhadap PDRB industri pengolahan di Pulau Jawa tahun 2011-2017?Apakah terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan investasi PMDN terhadap PDRB Industri Pengolahan di Pulau Jawa tahun 2011-2017? 3. Tujuan PenelitianUntuk mengetahui dan menganalisa pengaruh tenaga kerja sektor industri terhadap PDRB industri pengolahan di Pulau Jawa.Untuk mengetahui dan menganalisa pengaruh investasi PMA di sektor industri terhadap PDRB industri pengolahan di Pulau Jawa.Untuk mengetahui dan menganalisa pengaruh investasi PMDN di sektor industri terhadap PDRB industri pengolahan di Pulau Jawa.4. Metode PenelitianPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan bukti empiris atau menguji penjelasan sebab dan akibat yang berbentuk berbentuk regresi berganda. Dan penelitian ini menunjukkan arah hubungan antara variabel bebas dengan variabel terikat disamping mengukur kekuatan hubungannya. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder dengan periode observasi 2011-2017. Data yang digunakan bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) di Pulau Jawa maupun publikasi lainnya yang terkait. Analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi berganda data panel dengan model regresi Fixed Effect Cross-Section Weights. Data diolah dengan menggunakan Eviews 9. 5. Hasil dan PembahasanHasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tenaga kerja sektor industri berpengaruh positif tapi tidak signifikan terhadap PDRB industri pengolahan dengan koefisien 0,048110 dan nilai probabilitas sebesar 0,7183. Tenaga kerja sektor industri berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB industri pengolahan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,104161 dan nilai probabilitas uji t statistik sebesar 0,0000 atau lebih kecil dari taraf signifikan 5% atau sebesar 0,05. Investasi PMDN berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB industri pengolahan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,052172 dan nilai probabilitas sebesar 0,0018. 6. Kesimpulan dan rekomendasiKesimpulanTenaga kerja sektor industri menunjukkan pengaruh positif tapi signifikan terhadap PDRB industri pengolahan. Investasi PMA berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB industri pengolahan. Investasi PMDN berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Selain itu uji determinasi (R2) menunjukkan bahwa 99,90% variabel bebas (tenaga kerja sektor industri, investasi PMA dan PMDN di sektor industri) mempengaruhi variabel terikat (PDRB industri pengolahan), sisanya dipengaruhi oleh variabel diluar variabel bebas.RekomendasiMengingat peran PDRB industri pengolahan yang memiliki kontribusi yang besar terhadap perekonomian yang dipengaruhi oleh tenaga kerja sektor industri dan investasi PMA dan PMDN di sektor industri. Pemerintah dan pengusaha diharapkan dapat mendorong terus adanya perbaikan kondisi pekerja dan lingkungannya, sehingga tingkat upah dan produktivitas diharapkan tumbuh selaras dan dapat memperbaiki kondisi kesejahteraan pekerja di Pulau Jawa. Serta menetapkan regulasi-regulasi tentang cara dan persyaratan investasi yang mudah diterima oleh para investor, adanya jaminan stabiltas politik, keamanan dan penegakan hukum yang konsisten, menyediakan informasi yang akurat untuk para investor, mewujudkan mekanisme pelayanan atu pintu yang efektif untutk calon investor.DAFTAR PUSTAKAAbbas, Q. (2011). "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Gross Domestic Product." Global Journal of Management and Business Research Volume 11(8), 35-39. Global Journals Inc. (USA).Arifin, Z. (2012). "Analisis Spasial Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Industri Manufaktur Besar dan Sedang di Pulau Jawa."Jurnal HumanityVol.7 No2, 111-116. Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang.Ariska, N., Hanim,A. (2016)."Dampak Investasi Sektor Industri Pengolahan Terhadap Perekonomian Jawa Timur (Pendekatan Analisis Input-Output). Artikel Ilmiah Mahasiswa. Universitas Jember.Arsyad, L. (2015). Ekonomi Industri. Universitas Terbuka: Banten.Basir, M. (2012). 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Students' narratives from experiences in academic studies Anna-Karin Svensson Department of Learning and society Malmö University Sweden anna-karin.svensson@mau.se Summary The study's empiric is based on five students' narratives about earlier experiences of school and current experiences in university educations. The narratives are described and analyzed related to the education support they are offered in university. The students visit frequently the university's study workshop to take part of the written language aid that is offered. Three themes have been crystallized in the analysis: the students' need for clear support structures, teachers' feedback and the use of the students' educational capital. The result shows that the support is not perceived to be sufficient to carry out the studies independently. Keywords: academic literacy, narratives, study workshop, support structures, university students Background, objectives and aim The present study is based on five students' narratives experienced from frequent visits at the university study workshops. Students who opted to participate in the study are mainly from pre-school teacher education and teacher education as well as from other university programs. The interest for students' learning can be related to an earlier study about pre-service teachers reading (Svensson, 2011). Here is studied pre-service teachers reading on the basis of a socio-cultural perspective. The pre-service students' narratives make visible perceptions and experiences of what has been important aspects for reading in a life-long perspective. A number of aspects proved important as invitation, participation and challenge from significant others in order to develop new ways of reading, i.e. significant others supports reading processes for different reasons and in diverse contexts. Within earlier research in Sweden elucidates for example Ask (2005, 2007) and Blåsjö (2004) those problems students experience at stage transitions from upper secondary school to college. Bergman (2014, 2016) elucidates similar issues on the basis of teachers in higher educations' work with supporting students' development in literacy in higher education. Today almost every university and colleges in Sweden offered support for their students in study workshops. The aim of the study workshops is to facilitate for the students to conquer academic literacy skills. The study is based on five students' narratives from earlier school experiences and current experiences in university education with focus on student's visits at university's study workshop, taking part of the written language aid that is offered. Students' narratives are used in order to achieve knowledge about their experiences of university studies related to the aid the students apply for in the study workshop. This knowledge can along with earlier research and theoretical perspectives contribute to development of didactics in higher education. Existing study tries to answer the question: • What in the students' narratives stands out as important, favorable or unfavorable for the students' development of academic literacy in the university education? The theoretical starting point in existing study is based on a sociocultural perspective with focus on learning through social and creative processes of making meaning. A socio-cultural perspective assumes that learning is performed in conjunction with others in situated practices, comparable to what Lave and Wenger (1991) call legitimized peripheral participation. Learning takes place in interaction, where the student progressively moves between different positions through participation in the learning practice. Initially, the student leaves from a peripheral position, 'novis', to the center of practice, 'expert', when knowledge has been internalized. Lave and Wenger use the term Communities of Practice (CoP), which has been developed in practical professional communities, including tailors, midwives and butchers. Wenger's definition (1998) of CoP as a mutual commitment to a joint enterprise with a shared repertoire can therefore be discussed if it is transmissible in a knowledge environment, in which individuals develop and learn for different purposes and goals in a theoretical context, such as Arthur (2016) who problematizes in his research on CoP in the university environment. Researchers such as Gee, (2008) Lemke, (1990) and Street (1995) use the concept of literacy for writing-language activities and embrace an ideological approach where literacy is regarded as a complex social phenomenon related to social and political processes. In this context literacy means the ability to use different kinds of texts in different contexts and to a critical review, that is, to question the context and purposes for which texts are written and intended to be used. The term also means that students independently can manage, communicate and use the languages required in different contexts. The study also relates to previous research on student learning in an academic context, e.g., Evans (2015), Lea and Street (1998, 2006), Wingate and Tribbles (2012) Zepke and Leach (2005, 2006). Method The choice of a narrative method, which uses stories as a source of knowledge, is based on narratives as a tool that can contribute to knowledge of people's experiences, but also about the culture and society in which the narrator lives. The individual story can, when it is contextualized, provide knowledge about the social and cultural environment. Mishler (1995) distinguishes the story and the narrative. In the narrative there is a correlation between language and reality, but where the relationship should be problematized. The story instead focuses on how story telling is performed. Presenting examples of people's ways of perceiving their background, their current situation and their perception of the future is based on the belief that stories generate knowledge of importance (Goodson & Sikes, 2001). Study of students' narratives of their own reading and writing in a university context, is a research tool helping in the development of the university's educational/didactic work. Goodson and Sikes (ibid.) also argue that the narrative method is empowering for the narrator, and that the story creates understanding and meaning from past experiences, related to a historical and social context. Stories are constructions and in the narrative, the narrator designs herself along with the listener (Bamberg, 2004). In this study, narratives from five students are analyzed and interpreted. The reflexive component is important for both informant and researcher. For the researcher, reflexivity means being aware of the co-operative role in the design of the story. During this process the knowledge is deepened on how stories are derived from social life, but also creating and influencing social life (Brockmeier & Carbaugh, 2001; Bruner, 1987). The five students who were interested in participating in the study were women between 20 and 40 years old. These were selected for interview, a so-called availability check. Interviewers were informed that the study was only used for research purposes and that they could interrupt their participation whenever they wanted, and that their stories were anonymized with code names. The five stories were presented for the researcher, recorded and transcribed. The narratives were transcribed with focus on the content of the narratives, that is what the students tell, not how they tell. Each student's story was transcribed in its entirety for analysis and interpretation. A content analysis of the narratives has been done by coding based on meaning content, where different themes are highlighted (Graneheim & Lundman, 2004). Conclusion The results of this study point out that support and feedback are desirable at several levels of education, which means that teachers need to be aware of their own subject discipline literacy practice, in order to support students' learning processes. Based on student narratives, the support in the study workshop is not sufficient for the students to enable them to study independently and in-depth. Finally, it can be said that the results indicate that qualitative education and student involvement in the studies can be strengthened through cooperation at program/course level. This can be achieved by collegial cooperation between teachers and between teacher and student, as well as between student and student. Collaboration should be clearly stated in the syllabi and practiced as working methods in the courses. Such forms of work can stimulate relationships between teachers and students and between students for creative learning communities, both in academic and social groups, which are important for the sense of belonging. The study is based on narratives from five students who regularly visit the study workshop. The empirical material should be seen as examples of experiences from higher education, and the results should therefore not be generalized. Through transparency in the presentation of study purpose, selection of participants, data processing and analysis, the reader will be acquainted with the researcher's procedures throughout the study. Graneheim and Lundman (2004) use credibility, reliability and transferability as functional concepts in qualitative research. The study can be considered credible because it explores what has been the intention, i.e., some students' narratives from experiences in higher education. Critical issues in the data processing are the way data is processed and what is reduced in the process of condensed meaning and themes. Intent of publications: This presentation will be submitted to Problems of Education in the 21st Century to during autumn 2018 References Arthur, L. (2016). Communities of practice in higher education: professional learning in an academic career. International Journal for Academic Development, 1-12. Bamberg, M. (2004). Talk, small stories, and adolescent identities. Human development, 47(6), 366-369. Brockmeier, J., & Carbaugh, D. A. (Eds.). (2001). Narrative and identity: Studies in autobiography, self and culture (Vol. 1). John Benjamins Publishing. Bruner, J. (1987). Life as narrative. Social research, 11-32. Evans, C. (2013). Making sense of assessment feedback in higher education. Review of educational research, 83(1), 70-120. Gee, J. P. (2008). Social linguistics and literacies: Ideology in discourses (3rd ed.). London: Routledge. Goodson, I. F., & Sikes, P. J. (2001). Life history research in educational settings: Learning from lives. Open University Press. Graneheim, U. H., & Lundman, B. (2004). Qualitative content analysis in nursing research: concepts, procedures and measures to achieve trustworthiness. Nurse education today, 24(2), 105-112. Lave, J. & Wenger, E. (1991). Situated learning: Legitimate peripheral participation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press Lea, M. R. & Street, B. V. (1998). Student writing in higher education: An academic literacies approach. Studies in Higher Education, 23(2), 157–172. Lea, M. R. & Street, B. V. (2006). The "academic literacies" model: Theory and applications. Theory into Practice, 45(4), 368–377. Leach, L., & Zepke, N. (2011). Engaging students in learning: A review of a conceptual organiser. Higher Education Research & Development, 30(2), 193-204. Leach, L. (2016). Enhancing student engagement in one institution. Journal of Further and Higher Education, 40(1), 23-47. Lemke, J. L. (1990). Talking science: Language, learning, and values. Norwood: Ablex. Mishler, E. G. (1995). Models of narrative analysis: A typology. Journal of Narrative and Life Story, 5(2) 87–123. Street, B. V. (1995). Social literacies: Critical approaches to literacy development, ethnography, and education. London: Longman. Wingate, U., & Tribble, C. (2012). The best of both worlds? Towards an English for Academic Purposes/Academic Literacies writing pedagogy. Studies in Higher Education, 37(4), 481-495. Wenger, E. (1998). Communities of practice: Learning, meaning, and identity. Cambridge university press. Zepke, N. & Leach, L. (2006). Improving learner outcomes in lifelong education: Formal pedagogies in non-formal learning contexts? Journal of Lifelong Education, 25(5), 507–518. Zepke, N. & Leach, L. (2007). Improving student outcomes in higher education: New Zealand teachers' views on teaching students from diverse backgrounds. Teaching in Higher Education, 12(5–6), 655–668. Statistiska centralbyrån SCB, 2016 www. uhr.se Kan excellens nås i homogena studentgrupper. Universitet och högskolerådet (2014)

RIJEČ UREDNIŠTVAZa ovogodišnje lipanjske Dane hrvatskoga šumarstva održana je panel rasprava o trenutnoj situaciji u šumama Hrvatske. Naziv rasprave bio je "Hoće li nas šume nadživjeti?". Svrha skupa bila je informirati širu javnost o stanju šumskih ekosustava, ali i o promjenama koje se događaju u njima. Govori li sam naziv skupa dovoljno o ozbiljnosti situacije u kojoj se nalaze naše šume? Promijenjeni klimatski uvjeti koji vladaju na početku 21. stoljeća, donijeli su mnogo neprilika u šumama posljednjih pet godina. Tome treba pribrojiti i nikad veću trgovačku globalizaciju, što doprinosi bržem i lakšem širenju invazivnih vrsta bolesti i štetnika. Danas gotovo da nema ni jedne značajnije šumske vrste drveća koja nema svojih problema. Šume Gorskog kotara sastavljene od jele, bukve i smreke stradale su uslijed klimatskih ekstrema, a potom potkornjaka, nizinske šume hrasta lužnjaka napadnute su hrastovom mrežastom stjenicom, a šume poljskog jasena ubrzano propadaju uslijed više čimbenika, posebice Halare, dok dalmatinske borove šume ozbiljno ugrožava borov potkornjak. Tu su i šumski požari nakon kojih uslijed erozija nestaje i šumsko tlo, što umnogome onemogućuje sanaciju i vodi degradaciji šume. Tako ugroženim šumama smanjuju se financijska sredstva za njihov zaštitu i obnovu, što je sad i definitivno ozakonjeno Zakonom o šumama (NN 68/2018) koji je stupio na snagu 4. kolovoza 2018. O prijedlogu zakona pisali smo u Šumarskom listu 5-6/2018. Saborska rasprava nije donijela zaokret u odnosu na zakonski prijedlog koji je usvojila Vlada Republike Hrvatske. Zakon je ustvari na tragu programa Vlade RH za područje gospodarstva, poljoprivrede i ruralnog razvoja iz listopada 2016. godine. Šumarstvo se u tom programu spominje u potpoglavlju "Aktivno upravljanje šumama, veća proizvodnja i više radnih mjesta u domaćoj drvnoj industriji" s rečenicom: Izmjenom zakonske regulative Vlada će poboljšati i otkloniti poteškoće u načinu raspolaganja šumama i šumskim zemljištima, provoditi razminiranje šuma i šumskog zemljišta, sprječavati ilegalne sječe i trgovine i poticati razvoj domaće drvne industrije koja proizvodi drvni proizvod. Smatramo da takav program baš i nije poticajan za šume i šumska zemljišta. Razminiranje je svakako unaprjeđenje u upravljanju i gospodarenju šumama koje se provodi godinama, kao i najavljeno sprječavanje ilegalne sječe i trgovine, samo za to nema dovoljno pozitivnih pokazatelja, jer je takva djelatnost postala jako unosna na štetu šume i šumovlasnika / šumoposjednika. Početkom godine donesen je i Zakon o poljoprivrednom zemljištu (NN 20/2018, na snazi od 9. ožujka 2018.) koji je propisao, kao i Zakon o šumama, izdvajanje iz šumsko-gospodarske osnove zapuštenog poljoprivrednog zemljišta koje se može privesti poljoprivrednoj proizvodnji i mogućnost davanja takvog zemljišta sukladno Programu raspolaganja u zakup ili prodaju. Omogućeno je i za zemljišta izvan građevinskog područja koja se u katastru vode kao poljoprivredna zemljišta, a u pravilu su zapuštena, da se uključe u šumskogospodarsko područje, jer su troškovi njihovog privođenja poljoprivrednoj namjeni veći od tržišne vrijednosti ili ukupnog iznosa zakupnine toga zemljišta. Ove odredbe trebale bi napokon omogućiti svrsishodnu raspodjelu zemljišta na poljoprivredno i šumsko te njihovo stvarno korištenje. Novi Zakon o šumama uvažio je višegodišnje primjedbe obveznika plaćanja naknade za općekorisne funkcije šuma (OKFŠ), što je u javnosti i medijima često prvo bilo na udaru kao nepotreban i neshvaćen "parafiskalni" namet. Sad se 90 % dosadašnjih obveznika (oko 180 tisuća) izuzima iz plaćanja naknade, jer je prag za obvezu plaćanja godišnji prihod ili primitak veći od 3 milijuna kuna uz zadržanu visinu stope naknade od 0,0265 %. Uvaženo je i traženje jedinica lokalne samouprave o povećanju stopa šumskog doprinosa, pa su one povećane s 3,5 % na 5 % i za jedinice na potpomognutim područjima s 5 % na 10 % prodajne cijene proizvoda na panju. Zakon je uveo i definiciju šumoposjednika: javni šumoposjednik ovlašten za gospodarenje šumom i/ili šumskim zemljištem u vlasništvu Republike Hrvatske, javna ustanova čiji je osnivač Republika Hrvatska i njezine znanstveno-nastavne sastavnice, koje svoju znanstveno-nastavnu djelatnost i znanstvenoistraživački rad obavljaju iz područja šumarstva, pravna osoba čiji je osnivač i vlasnik jedinica lokalne samouprave, a kojoj se odlukom Vlade povjerava gospodarenje te privatni šumoposjednik s podjelom na male (do 20 ha šume i/ili šumskog zemljišta), srednje (od 20 do 300 ha) i velike (većim od 300 ha) šumoposjednike. Za šumskogospodarsko područje ustanovljuje se Registar pri Ministarstvu koji se vodi u elektroničkom obliku, a bit će dostupan pod određenim uvjetima. Registar će sadržavati i dio za izvješćivanje potreban za ispunjavanja međunarodnih i nacionalnih obveza iz sektora šumarstva. Zakon predviđa i izdvajanje namjenskih sredstva u poseban fond za razvoj drvne industrije, što je također jedna od predviđenih aktivnosti u programu Vlade iz 2016. godine.Novi Zakon o šumama pokušao je uvažiti razne promjene koje su se dogodile od donošenja prošloga zakona iz 2005. godine, a koje su nivelirane izmjenama i dopunama kroz proteklih 13 godina, njih ukupno osam. Pokušao se uskladiti i s drugim zakonima iz područja poljoprivrede, zaštite pri­ro­de i okoliša, te strategije EU za šume i sektor koji se temelji na šumama. Potrebno je još uskladiti i donijeti sve podzakonske akte vezane uz zakon.Pitamo se hoće li odredbe novog Zakona o šumama biti na tragu rješavanja nagomilanih problema u šumama Hrvatske?Uredništvo ; EDITORIALA panel addressing the current condition of Croatian forests was organized on the occasion of Days of Croatian Forestry that were held in June 2018. The title of the discussion was "Will forests outlive mankind?" The purpose of the panel was to inform broader public of the condition of forest ecosystems, as well as of the changes taking place in them. Does the title of the panel reflect the seriousness of the danger facing our forests? In the last five years, changed climate conditions occurring at the beginning of the 21st century have inflicted major problems to the forests. Add to this general market globalisation, which contributes to the faster and easier spread of invasive diseases and pests. There is not one important forest tree species today that does not have problems. Forests of Gorski Kotar, which are composed of fir, beech, and spruce, have succumbed to climatic extremes and to attacks of bark beetles. Lowland forests of pedunculate oak are infested with the oak lace bug, while forests of narrow-leaved ash are rapidly deteriorating under the cumulative action of several factors, particularly Halare. Dalmatian pine forests are severely threatened by the pine bark beetle. Forest fires also cause extensive damage. The subsequent erosions lead to the loss of forest soils, which greatly hinders recovery and contributes to the degradation of forests. The financial means needed to protect and regenerate such forests are being minimized and this has now definitely been incorporated in the new Forest Act (Official Gazette 68/2018), which came into effect on August 4th, 2018. A parliamentary discussion did not bring about any changes with regard to the proposed act, which was adopted by the Government of the Republic of Croatia. The Act in fact follows the Government programme for the field of economy, agriculture and rural development of October 2016. In the said programme forestry is addressed in the sub-chapter "Active management of forests, higher production and more work places in the domestic wood industry" with the following sentence: By changing legal regulations, the Government will remove obstacles and improve ways of managing forests and forest land. It will also undertake demining operations in forests and forest land, prevent illegal felling and trade and stimulate the development of domestic wood industry which produces wood products. In our opinion, such programme is not really stimulative for forests and forest land. Demining is certainly an improvement in the management of forests and it has been carried out for years, and so is the announced prevention of illegal felling and trade. However, there are not enough positive indicators for this, since these activities have become very profitable at the detriment of forests and forest owners. At the beginning of the year the Agricultural Land Act was passed (Official Gazette 20/2018, in effect since March 9th, 2018), which regulated, as did the Forest Act, the exclusion of abandoned agricultural land from the forest-management plan and its conversion to agricultural production, as well as the possibility of leasing or selling such land in accordance with the Disposition Programme. The Act also allows for the land outside construction areas, which is listed as agricultural land in the land register but is abandoned in reality, to be included in the forest-management area, since the cost of converting the land for agricultural purposes is higher than the market value or the total amount of rent for such land. These provisions should finally enable a rational division of land into agricultural and forest land, and consequently its proper usage. The new Forest Act has also adopted long-lasting objections made by those obliged to pay a non-market forest function fee. The public and the media often harshly criticized this fee as an unnecessary and incomprehensible "parafiscal" tax. Now, 90% of those obliged to pay the fee (about 180 thousand subjects) are exempt from paying the fee, since the threshold for the obligation has been set down at an annual income or profit higher than 3 million kuna, while the rate of the fee has been retained at 0.0265 %. Demands by local self-management units to raise the rate of forest contribution have also been adopted, and it has accordingly been raised from 3.5 % to 5 %, while for units in subsidized areas it has been raised from 5 % to 10 % of the selling price of the product before felling. The Act also defines a forest owner: a public forest owner authorized to manage a forest and/or forest land owned by the Republic of Croatia, a public institution whose founder is the Republic of Croatia and its scientific-teaching components which carry out their scientific-teaching activity and scientific-research work in the field of forestry, a legal person whose founder and owner is the local self-management unit and which is entrusted with management by a Government decision, and a private forest owner. Private forest owners are divided into small (up to 20 ha of forests and/or forest land), medium (from 20 to 300 ha) and large (more than 300 ha) forest owners. A Register of a forest-management area in the electronic form will be established by the Ministry, and it will be available under certain conditions. The Register will contain a reporting part needed to fulfil international and national obligations in the forestry sector. The Act also provides for the allocation of earmarked means into a special fund for the development of the wood industry, which is also one of the activities in the Government programme from 2016. The new Forest Act has attempted to incorporate different changes taking place since the previous Act of 2005 was passed. There have been a total of eight changes, which have been adjusted by revisions and amendments over the past 13 years. The Act is also coordinated with other laws from the field of agriculture, nature and environment protection, and the EU strategy for forests and forest-based sector. All by-laws related to the Act need to be coordinated and passed.We wonder whether the regulations of the new Forest Act will try to solve the growing problems in the forests of Croatia. Editorial Board

This report covers basic descriptions and characteristics of the equine sector, including statistics on number of horses, horse farms, employment, current structure and recent dynamics in the horse sector in Finland, Latvia and Sweden and also the mobility (e.g. trade, import, export and tourism) within the Central Baltic Region. The information was gathered through literature reviews, round table discussions and interviews with equine organisations and stakeholders, and through visits to farms with equine business activities in each of the three countries. Horses in Finland, Latvia and Sweden At the moment the horse population in Finland is growing steadily. In 2010 there were about 75 000 horses. Most of these are warm-blooded trotting horses, but riding horses are becoming increasingly popular as riding as a hobby increases in popularity. Approximately 35 000 people own at least one horse and co-ownership is becoming a common way of owning a horse with relatively small costs and responsibilities, especially among trotting sports. There are approximately 16 000 stables, of which over 3 000 are business orientated. These numbers are still only estimates, because Finland is lacking a comprehensive register of stables and stable enterprises. Although statistical data on the number of horses, breeds, herds, stables etc. are being collected and are available in Latvia, there is still a lack of statistical data that characterise the sector in relation to employment, provide an idea of the financial results, and characterise horse uses for tourism or therapy purposes. For example, there are no data on the number of people working with horses. This is perhaps related to the perception of the sector as being located within the context of horse breeding. Statistical data show that the number of horses in Latvia in general has decreased, from 15 250 in 2005 to 11 476 in 2012, and the current trends indicate that it could decrease even more. The number of livestock has decreased correspondingly, from 9814 in 2005 to 5577 in 2012. More than 84% of all farms have 1 to 5 horses, and only a few farms have more than 100 horses. The number of horses in Sweden decreased in the early 1920s from about 700 000 to about 70 000 in the 1970s. During the past 30 years the number of horses has increased tremendously, but the trend seems to be stagnated the last few years. Today there are approximately 362 700 horses and about 20% of all horses in Sweden are within business establishments. The number of horses per 1 000 habitants is 39 for the whole country and Sweden is now estimated to have the second highest density of horses per capita in Europe. There are approximately 77 800 establishments involving horses in Sweden. The equine businesses have on average 4.7 horses and provide full-time or part-time work for a total of 25 000 people. About two-thirds of those working with horses are women. Horse related legislation in Finland, Latvia and Sweden Environmental legislation is one of the broadest judicial systems in Finland. It consists of a number of different laws and regulations, relating to waste disposal, water protection, environmental protection, land use and construction. After EU membership, environmental legislation in Finland was harmonised with EC (European Community) legislation, especially in the case of environmental protection and conservation. The main environmental legislation concerning the horse sector in Finland consists of following laws, directives and regulations: 1) Environmental protection law and regulation, 2) Waste law and regulation, 3) EU waste incineration directive, 4) By-product regulation, 5) Nitrate regulation, 6) Law concerning dead animals in remote areas, 7) The law on processing household water in remote areas, 8) Health protection law and regulation, 9) Fertilizer law, 10) Conservation law, 11) Land use and construction law and 12) Law about neighbourliness. According to the requirements of the Ministry of Agriculture, the policy of the horse breeding sector in Latvia is based on: a) Horse breeding is performed according to the targets stated in the breeding programme, which are based on production of high quality animals, preservation and improvement of the genotype through purposeful use of the breeding stock and improvement of horse monitoring, b) The importance of the development of horses and equestrian sports within the framework of the common agricultural policy is emphasised in order to encourage development of the rural environment, and c) Horse breeding is compliant with welfare regulations. National and European Union aid for the development of the agricultural sector is allocated to horse breeding too. Most of it consists of aid for breeding measures in the equine sector. Currently there are no specific regulations in Latvia which define requirements for keeping horses. Horse breeding is not distinguished separately within the field of animal welfare in Latvia and therefore the main document is the Animal Protection Law. Its norms are general, while Cabinet Regulation No 959 ´Welfare Requirements for the Keeping and Training of Sport, Work and Exhibition Animals and Use Thereof in Competitions, Work or Exhibitions´ does not specify actions with horses and can easily be interpreted in different ways. There is no measurable evaluation system to assess fulfilment of the requirements in the Cabinet Regulations. The law stipulates the actions and activities which may be undertaken with an animal and those which are strictly forbidden and lists the institutions that should supervise compliance with the law and the welfare requirements. Latvia lacks the basis of normative documents that would specifically regulate personal safety in the horse breeding sector and in businesses related to horse use. Therefore the common normative basis has to be considered, the foundation of which is the ´Labour Protection Law´. The foundation of Swedish environmental legislation is the Swedish Environmental Code. The purpose of the Swedish Environmental Code is to promote sustainable development which will assure a healthy and sound environment for present and future generations. The Code is a legislative framework based on a number of fundamental principles permeating international environmental protection and resource management. These include the "precautionary" principle, the "polluter pays" principle, the "product choice" principle and principles governing resource management, natural cycles and appropriate siting of industrial (and other) operations and remedial measures. The main environmental legislation in Sweden concerning the horse sector consists of the following laws, directives, ordinances and regulations: 1) Environmental Code, 2) Ordinance concerning environmentally hazardous activities and the protection of public health, 3) Ordinance on environmental consideration in agriculture, 4) Nitrate directive, 5) Water directive, 6) Swedish guidance on storage and spreading of manure, 7) Regulation on environmental consideration in agriculture as regards plant nutrients, 8) Ordinance on inspection and enforcement according to the Environmental Code, 9) Ordinance on self-inspection by operators, 10) Ordinance on animal by-products, 11) Ordinance on fees for examination and supervision under the Environmental Code and the fees ordinance, 12) Regulations on the protection of the environment, in particular the soil, when sewage sludge is used in agriculture, 13) Regulations on consideration for natural and cultural values in agriculture, 14) Ordinance on environmental penalty charge, 15) The Planning and Building Ordinance, 16) The Land Code. In Sweden the occupational safety and health issues in general are regulated in the Work Environmental Act (SFS 1977:1160), in the Work Environmental Ordinance (SFS 1977:1166) and in several provisions. There is no specific legislation regarding occupational health and safety in the horse sector. However, these issues are included in the provision Working with animals (SFS 2008:17). Some results of the round table discussions in Finland, Latvia and Sweden In general, the participants in round table discussions in Finland were hoping for concrete solutions and examples of low-cost and easy help for everyday businesses. Entrepreneurs with lower profitability need more support, but the challenge is to get them involved in education or advisory events. The riding sector at least is much divided, with some businesses having as many customers as they can serve, and others who are constantly on the edge of bankruptcy. To help those small and medium-sized enterprises that need help the most, the project should produce advice that can immediately be used in practice, and concrete results and solutions. The problem with small and medium-sized businesses is the lack of capital and the related impossibility of investing large amounts of money in new technologies or large-scale facilities. In this sector the profitability and competitiveness are often low, but small changes in operations could improve these. Many business owners are still lacking business skills and they may not see what they could use as a competitive advantage. The current understanding of the equine sector in Latvia has to be reconsidered or a better understanding has to be created. Therefore the policy guidelines and the aid to the sector will have to be reviewed. For example, according to the view of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Latvia, the equine sector only concerns breeding and accordingly state aid is predominantly provided for this purpose. The Latvian Horse Breeding Association also considers breeding to be its priority, but several representatives of the tourism industry expressed the opinion that horse breeding should be reconsidered, paying special attention to the Latvian horse breed, which could be interesting for foreign and local tourists as a special feature of Latvia. Latvian breed horses possess a nature and traits that make them suitable for tourism and also therapeutic riding purposes. The equine sector in Latvia in general lacks a clear direction for orientation, what should be bred, what might be a profitable product or an exportable product. Since this is not clear on a national scale, it is difficult to discuss aid instruments. The people working in the sector often lack skills in project preparation, they do not have time to learn and study it all, and therefore it is difficult to apply for and to receive the aid. In order to solve this, it is usual practice to involve companies that prepare the project application. Other entrepreneurs try to master these skills themselves. The horse sector in Sweden is now on a downward trend, pointing out the decreased number of served mares. The horse businesses need to streamline their business ideas, look for better locations (closer to customers) and the activities offered must be more adapted to customer needs and demands, such as different types of activities and livery stables with more specialist services or diversified food production. In general, horse stables will have a lot of opportunities in the sector if they can keep up with the changes in the sector. The interest in Sweden regarding keeping horses and attending riding sports was perceived to be decreasing and it was thought that there is a system change underway. The way to keep horses in the future may not be the same as it used to be. People are not willing to sacrifice time and efforts to keep on with horses any more, people are getting older and there is limited recruitment of young people into the sector. The horse activities mainly take place in urban and periurban areas.

The generational goal, which sets the direction for Sweden's environmental policy, was reformulated and decided upon in 2010 by the Riksdag. The overall goal of Swedish environmental policy is to hand over to the next generation a society in which the major environmental problems in Sweden have been solved, without increasing environmental and health problems outside Sweden's borders. There are seven bullet points linked to the generational goal. The seventh emphasises that solving the environmental problems we face are to be achieved within one generation, ensuring that: Patterns of consumption of goods and services cause the least possible problems for the environment and human health. The changes from the previous generational goal imply among other things that environmental policy in Sweden must not lead to increased environmental and health problems outside of Sweden. This implies that we have to develop the possibility of following up Sweden's environmental impact in other countries. The environmental impact that Sweden causes in other countries is due among other things to the importing of products. It is therefore necessary to try to quantify the total environmental impact that the manufacturing of the imported products causes in order to gain an understanding of the environmental impact abroad. The purpose of this project is primarily to develop indicators for emissions of greenhouse gases and other emissions to air caused by Swedish consumption, in order to follow the negative environmental impact in other countries. The indicators are generally aimed at following the trend in emissions over time, not at examining exact emission levels. The purpose is also to further develop methods to follow the emissions of chemical substances caused by Swedish consumption. The idea here is to try out a data source for point sources of discharge of chemical substances, apply an input-output analysis to them and weigh together the substances to obtain potential toxicity, by life cycle assessment (LCA) methods. This is a first step and the method needs to be further developed before an indicator can be presented. The results of the project are presented in the following proposals for indicators to follow up the generational goal and its seventh bullet point: Climate related emissions:  Emissions of greenhouse gases abroad and in Sweden, measured in carbon dioxide equivalents caused by Swedish consumption, time series 2000-2008  Emissions of greenhouse gases per person abroad and in Sweden caused by Swedish consumption, measured in carbon dioxide equivalents, time series 2000-2008  Emissions of greenhouse gases caused by Swedish consumption abroad and in Sweden, indexed with the year 2000 = 100, time series 2000-2008 Other emissions to air:  Emissions of nitrogen oxides caused by Swedish consumption, abroad and in Sweden, time series 2000-2008  Emissions of sulphur dioxide caused by Swedish consumption abroad and in Sweden, time series 2000-2008  Emissions of ammonia caused by Swedish consumption abroad and in Sweden, time series 2000-2008 An example of how the indicators can be presented together with relevant issues is available in the report in Annex 5. Emissions of greenhouse gases caused by Swedish consumption, in Sweden and abroad The indicator for greenhouse gases emissions caused by Swedish consumption abroad and in Sweden is presented below. Greenhouse gases are measured in millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents, which is a weighted total of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide (laughing gas) due to their impact on the greenhouse gas effect. The indicator shows the total greenhouse gas emissions caused by Swedish consumption, consisting of emissions in Sweden and emissions abroad. The total emissions caused by Swedish consumption increased from 90 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents in 2000 to 98 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents in 2008. This implies an increase of 9 percent during the period. The emissions abroad have increased from 44 million tonnes to 58 million tonnes, implying an increase of 30 percent between 2000 and 2008. In comparison, domestic emissions caused by Swedish consumption decreased from 46 million tonnes to 40 million tonnes during the same period, implying a decrease of about 13 percent. The exact levels depend on which data are available and model assumptions, and may vary between studies. The increase shown by the indicator of the total emissions is caused by an increase in emissions abroad and can be explained in the model by increased consumption met by increasing imports. The fact that the imports have increased by approximately 40 percent, in fixed prices, between 2000 and 2008, supports that explanation. An increase can also be the result if the composition of consumption changes, i.e. if other types of products are imported, product types that cause higher emissions, or if the production of imported goods takes place where higher emissions are caused in producing the same type of goods. Nearly half of the increase can be explained by the population growth during the period. To find out more about the driving forces behind the increased emissions, supplementary studies must be performed, which have not been carried out within this project. The indicator consists of two parts, emissions in Sweden and emissions abroad, both caused by Swedish consumption. The underlying data source for the emissions in Sweden is the official statistics on emissions reported to UNFCCC, the UN's climate change convention. These emissions are broken down by industry and processed by Environmental Accounts at Statistics Sweden and used in an environmentally extended input-output analysis (Naturvårdsverket, 2010d). The main difference between the domestic emissions caused by Swedish consumption and the domestic emissions reported to UNFCCC is that emissions caused in producing goods for export are not a part of the emissions caused by consumption. Emissions due to imported goods that are produced in other countries are estimated according to a model. The model for carbon dioxide emissions is based on how much - in economic terms - is imported from other countries (data from Statistics Sweden), emissions of carbon dioxide reported to Eurostat for EU countries and each country's emissions intensity in relation to GDP (data from World Resources Institute) for countries outside the EU. Emissions of methane and nitrous oxide in other countries are calculated as if they occurred in Sweden. Use of chemicals and emissions of chemical substances The project included further development of methods for a future indicator of the area of chemicals from a perspective of consumption. In previous work, data from the products register at the Swedish Chemicals Agency have been used to create indicators for use of chemicals in Sweden for this purpose. In this project the options for developing other indicators as a complement are investigated, where an important prerequisite is data availability abroad. The focus was to develop the idea which was presented in the background synthesis report (Naturvårdsverket, 2010d). The idea is to try to use the database EPRTR1 which contains national emissions of chemical substances from industrial point sources, reported to the EU. Input-output analyses could be applied to these data, to obtain emissions caused by final demand. The emitted chemical substances were weighted using LCA methods to enable potential toxicity to be presented for aquatic ecotoxicity and human toxicity. The results which are presented in the report show contribution to potential toxicity caused by final demand in Sweden in 2008, based on reported emissions in E-PRTR. Substances that contributed most to potential toxicity could also be distinguished. In the study using E-PRTR as a data source, several limitations should be mentioned which contribute to the fact that no ready-to-use indicator for chemical substances is presented in the report. The emissions are presented for the whole of final demand including exports. Of this followed that the large export products (basic metals, pulp and paper) contributed heavily to the results. The analysis was restricted to domestic emissions, which means that no calculations on the contribution to potential toxicity for imported goods were performed. Another restriction worth noting is that the contents of the data source are limited to those substances that are reportable and that the result depends on which substances are included in the calculation model that is used when the potential toxicity is determined. Continued work The work to produce indicators for follow up of the global environmental impact caused by consumption has made some progress through this project. During the project many development areas for methods and data sources have been identified. No development projects have been decided upon, and a decision on estimation of costs must be evaluated first. For climate related emissions there are the following suggestions for development:  Add emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases by industry to the environmentally extended input-output analyses.  Develop emission intensities based on data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and World Bank to obtain more detailed and updated intensities than those published by World Resources Institute (WRI).  Study to what extent the increased levels of greenhouse gas emissions are due to higher imports or higher emissions intensities.  Study which countries Sweden imports from, and analyse if this has changed over time and has had any impact on emission levels.  Further enhance the allocation of emissions of methane and nitrous oxide related to the production of food products, so that meat can be separately studied and to enhance the calculation of emissions in other countries. For emissions to air there are the following suggestions for development:  Use Eurostat data for the emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and ammonia to obtain a better understanding of emissions in other countries. The results in this report are based on the "as if" assumption.  Study the following emissions to air in a consumption perspective: carbon dioxide, volatile aromatic compounds and particulates, to obtain a better understanding about how these can be followed in other countries. For the area of chemicals, there is no indicator ready to use. A possible way forward is to develop an indicator based on E-PRTR and relate it to other sources of emissions. The following indicates development areas in order to connect emissions of chemical substances to consumption:  Allocate the emissions from industrial point sources reported to E-PRTR to the components of final demand so that the emissions linked to exports can be excluded in further analyses.  Try to obtain an understanding of the size of the total industrial emissions that are covered through E-PRTR (the database EU countries report their national PRTR data to)  Estimate emissions in other countries, related to Sweden's imports, by using available data sources (available for the EU and several other countries).  Quantify and estimate the potential toxicity from diffuse emissions from the use of chemical products and from goods, for comparison with the potential toxicity from those emissions that are reported in E-PRTR.

In this dissertation I present a new analytical approach to the study of women's employment. Using data on 18 OECD countries from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP), I model cross-national variation in "the gap" between women's orientations toward work and family and their employment trajectories over the life course. The existence of a gap at the individual level indicates that a woman followed an employment trajectory that is inconsistent with her work-family orientations--for example, a woman who believes that women should stay at home with young children but who, in fact, worked when her own children were young.The orientations-employment gap has several advantages as an object of study compared to simply modeling women's employment behavior. First, the existence of a gap suggests the presence of social structural factors that operate independently of an individual's work-family orientations and that drive a wedge between their orientations and actual employment behavior. Second, because the gap takes into account women's work-family orientations, it is possible to distinguish between social policies that support women's choice to work versus policies that are commodifying in their effects. The distinction between policies that support women's choice to work and policies that commodify women is important, because work relationships are potentially oppressive, and policies that promote women's freedom to opt out of work may enhance women's leverage, individually and collectively, in the market.Third, the orientations-employment gap uses women's own psychological orientations as a standard for comparison in studying mothers' employment rather than men's occupational outcomes. Because women still shoulder a disproportionate burden of homemaking and childcare responsibilities and suffer employer discrimination based on gender and family status, children may carry significant costs for their mothers, which are reflected in the "gender gap" between women's and men's occupational outcomes (see, e.g., Budig and England 2001 and Goldin 1990). However, it is also important to acknowledge the benefits that accrue to individual mothers (and fathers) and the significance of motherhood as a means of self-actualization. Divergent expectations regarding the costs and benefits of childrearing, as well as the sometimes class-specific ways in which motherhood undergirds adult identity, are among a larger number of factors that produce women's distinct orientations regarding work and family (Gerson 1985; McMahon 1995). Finally, in modeling the orientations-employment gap, it is possible to examine how women's work-family orientations moderate the effects of social policies. In the first chapter I examine whether the effects of childcare-related provisions, labor market conditions, and other factors on mothers' employment trajectories are moderated by their work-family orientations. I distinguish among women with "domestic" and "careerist" orientations, who appear to prioritize homemaking and a career respectively, and a third group of women with "adaptive" orientations, who believe that mothers should reduce their labor force involvement or withdraw from the labor force entirely when their children are young. While it is important to recognize that women's orientations toward work and family change in response to life course events and differences across countries in labor market conditions, women's work-family orientations are not simply a rationalization of the current structure of opportunities and constraints in the environment, as is apparent from the large orientations-employment gaps in many countries. In the main set of analyses in this chapter, I treat mothers' work-family orientations as fixed.I find that the effects of childcare-related provisions and characteristics of the labor market in different countries are highly contingent on mothers' work-family orientations and that mothers generally strive to minimize disagreement between their orientations and actual behavior. For example, my data suggests that mothers pursue distinct compensatory strategies in adapting to high childcare costs: increasing their labor force involvement or reducing their work hours, thus replacing some or all of a childcare worker's labor with their own. But which strategy a woman adopts depends on her work-family orientations. Mothers with careerist orientations are most likely to increase their labor force involvement in response to high childcare costs, while domestic mothers are more likely to pursue the opposite strategy. Furthermore, from my analysis it appears that mothers with domestic orientations use maternity and childcare leave primarily as a means of extending their absence from the labor force. It is among adaptive mothers that maternity leave has the positive effect on employment usually noted in the literature. Even though mothers exhibit a remarkable degree of agency in formulating strategies for the reconciliation of work and family responsibilities, family policy regimes in different countries still have important implications for women's emancipation. In the second chapter I examine variation in the size of the orientations-employment gap between and within countries as a means to assess the emancipatory potential of family policies, broadly defined, in the extent to which they support mothers' access to paid work (Orloff 1993) and decommodification (Esping-Andersen 1990). Despite the importance of decommodification/ commodification as a dimension of variation to earlier welfare state scholarship, the relationship between welfare states, especially as implementers of family policy, and women's access to paid work has received far greater attention in feminist revisions of welfare state scholarship. But the extent to which welfare states support women's freedom to opt out of work--that is, their decommodification--is an equally important dimension of welfare state variation because of the link between this criterion and women's leverage in the market (Esping-Andersen 1990) and the significance of motherhood to some women as a means of self-actualization (McMahon 1995). The typology of family policy regimes suggested by the results from my second dissertation chapter differs in several important respects from the broad picture offered by previous research. First, I find evidence of tension between the very active involvement of the state in supporting (careerist) women's choice to work in the Scandinavian countries and women's decommodification, as illustrated by the large numbers of domestic and adaptive women with young children who are employed in these countries. While my results call into question Esping-Andersen's (1990) characterization of the Scandinavian countries as highly decommodifying and claims that the package of childcare-related benefits and services available to mothers and fathers in these countries facilitates parental choice (Leira 2002b), my results are consistent with arguments made by several scholars (see, e.g., Andersen 2008 and Graafland 2000) that the viability of the large public social service sector in the Scandinavian countries rests on "reproduction going public" (Hernes 1987). As suggested by the large gaps between domestic and adaptive women's work-family orientations and employment behavior, however, the Scandinavian countries have ensured women's high levels of labor force involvement not only by supporting work-centered women's full-time employment, but by inducing home-centered and adaptive women to work when their children are young. I hypothesize that features of public policy such as individual taxation systems in which the (usually male) breadwinner's earnings are taxed at a higher rate than those of the second earner (Sainsbury 1999) and work-related conditions that are attached to the receipt of unemployment insurance and social assistance (Andersen 2010) serve as incentives for mothers to enter the labor market.While the Scandinavian countries are characterized by both their strong support for (careerist) women's choice to work and domestic and adaptive mothers' high levels of labor force involvement, only the latter feature distinguishes the Scandinavian countries from the other countries. Thus, my results suggest that the Scandinavian approach to family policy represents only one route through which countries may promote women's access to paid work. A second major approach to supporting women's employment can be identified in Britain and the United States, where there is greater emphasis on demand side measures and reliance on the private sector and the family in the provision of child care (Michel 1999; O'Connor, Orloff, and Shaver 1999). However, as suggested by my results, these countries are less effective at supporting the labor force participation of mothers who have lower earning power and cannot afford center child care or the services of a nanny. Even in many countries whose family policies are designed around a "male breadwinner" family model (Lewis 1992), including Austria and Germany in Continental Europe, the gap between careerist women's work-family orientations and employment trajectories is relatively small. However, while countries adopt distinct strategies in supporting women's choice to work, each strategy carries unique costs. The very active role of the state in the provision of welfare in the Scandinavian countries rests on the commodification of women, while greater reliance on the private sector and the family in the provision of child care in Britain and the United States have resulted in multi-tiered systems in which the mode of child care used by mothers and the availability of high-quality child care are determined by class. The relatively small gaps between careerist women's work-family orientations and employment trajectories in some Continental European countries such as Austria and Germany may not necessarily point to a distinct strategy for promoting women's access to paid work, but rather, factors that are held in common among most countries, including principles regarding equal pay and equal treatment in employment that are embodied in European Union equality law and improved access to modern and more effective methods of contraception such as the pill.In the third chapter I examine the influence of a wide range of "person-level" factors such as work orientations, human capital characteristics, and family background factors on American women's employment trajectories using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1979. The more detailed information on women's work histories in this data set enables me to more closely examine the contours of women's labor market careers and to identify certain critical junctures at which women tend to diverge from one another in their work hours. Specifically, the first critical juncture in women's labor market careers occurs in the period following the completion of (or a pause in) schooling and preceding childbirth, during which time most women embark on a male-type employment pattern of continuous full-time employment ("careerist" and "steady withdrawal" women) or work part-time ("adaptive" and "domestic" women). The caretaking responsibilities and financial demands that accompany the birth of the first child constitutes the second critical juncture in women's lives and cause further branching in women's work histories. An important question that I ask is whether the same factors explain divergences in women's employment in the period following the completion of schooling and after childbirth. Interestingly, two important components of women's work orientations (future plans and gender role attitudes) appear to be far more important in explaining divergences in behavior at the first critical juncture than after childbirth.

The political situation witnessed in Madagascar since the beginning of this year has resulted in major changes in the daily lives of the Malagasy. Besides instability and increased uncertainty, the population is facing more imminent challenges: increasing unemployment, exploding staple food prices, a shortage in basic food supplies, and a closure of schools, universities and financial institutions. How will Madagascar be affected in the near and long term? This remains unknown, however, it is highly probable that the current situation will negatively affect all levels of Malagasy society. These impacts are likely to be longer lasting and more far - reaching than currently anticipated. In this issue, Doreen Robinson from USAID is presenting three ecological concepts in her foreword "A changing Madagascar": connectedness, resiliency and reconciliation. These are consistent with Buzz Holling's theory of adaptive cycling. Imagine Madagascar is traveling on a trajectory in the form of a figure of eight laid on its side attached to this text, or an infinity symbol in 3 - D. On the front loop (the right side in the figure) there is the 'K'-phase where a system, such as a forest or society, is becoming increasingly established and conservative and reaches a point of 'over'-stability, which risks becoming too rigid. With low resilience, it becomes increasingly prone to external forces. If such forces succeed to cause the system to collapse and chaos prevails in the 'Ω'-phase, the result is the release of the old system and its energy. This release, however, can trigger a new beginning. In the 'α'- phase of reorganization and renewal, a new system emerges. In the 'r'-phase swift exploitation and growth are occurring and the more time passes, the more the processes slow and the conservative 'K'-phase approaches. During this growth period, several processes are simultaneously at work. The potential for novelty, innovation and wealth increases, as does the connectedness and reconciliation of the system components. Meanwhile, the overall resiliency of the system decreases, that is, the system becomes rigid once more. There are rumors that the current political turmoil has been curbed by a 'land deal' with a South Korean company. In a country like Madagascar, where traditional land - use and strong beliefs in ancestry are prevalent, such news might have caused a cultural shock and a resultant backlash. However, as discussed in an essay by Geoffrey York from the International Food Policy and Research Institute in March 2009, claims to land in developing countries by developed countries might become more common in the near future as they face ever - dwindling land area coupled with increased demands for resources. For governments of developing countries, with an abundance of cheap land, they might find quick 'land-deals' simply too tempting. The same can be said for resources below ground. Natural resources are shifting ever more to the center of attention, and as Johny Rabenantoandro from QMM/RioTinto aptly emphasises in the other foreword of this issue, we need to start appreciating the richness of biodiversity and safeguarding it for the future in order for our children to enjoy it. Pertinent questions arise in this context: how will we deal with social, environmental and economic changes; how can changes in resource availability, or in demand for such resources, be absorbed by our existing ecological and societal systems without precipitating collapse? Our questioning of the fate of Madagascar's future does not end here. Fortunately, we are presented with the opportunity in this issue to make contributions that can explore these very questions. In the newly introduced journal section SPOTLIGHTS, Jeffrey Sayer (IUCN) argues for the landscape mosaic as the solution to reconcile conservation and development. In another contribution, William McConnell from Michigan State University reviews modeling human agency. Modeling is an emergent topic in Madagascar as it is elsewhere, and it can be a helpful tool to gain a greater understanding of land - use patterns, which is pertinent to the study of livelihoods and other socially-based research. Another contribution draws on interview-based research to understand the livelihood needs of fishermen and rice cultivators of the Alaotra marshes. How can the conservation of biodiversity and livelihood needs be balanced? How can rare and endangered species and their ecosystems be protected without compromising people's basic needs to survive? To answer such pressing questions, we need to substantially expand our knowledge base by gaining more insight into the ecological systems within which conservation and development exist. The authors of two other contributions on lemurs and birds help to expand such a knowledge base. In summary, although these times of change and upheaval are overturning seemingly stable systems, there is also hope that the release of energy we are currently experiencing in Madagascar will develop into a 'Holling's loop' where new opportunities can be formed. We should take this momentum to free even more energy and funnel it into research, so we can enlarge our knowledge base, increase our understanding of the interconnected systems and enforce our resilience in order better to adapt our readiness to future changes. For the only certainty we have for Madagascar's future is change.Seule certitude à Madagascar : le changement Depuis le début de l'année, nous sommes témoins d'une crise politique à Madagascar qui a profondément changé le quotidien de bon nombre de gens. En plus de l'insécurité et de l'instabilité, la population se retrouve à faire face à de nouvelles situations avec une augmentation du chômage, l'explosion des prix des produits de première nécessité, des pénuries dans les approvisionnements, la fermeture d'écoles, d'universités ou d'institutions financières. Pour l'avenir, on peut se demander dans quelle mesure Madagascar resterait affectée par ces événements mais sans rentrer dans une polémique ni nous lancer dans des pronostiques, il semble vraisemblable que l'ensemble de la société malgache sera touchée et dans des proportions plus graves que ce qu'on pourrait imaginer. Dans ce numéro, Doreen Robinson de l'USAID présente trois concepts écologiques dans sa préface « Réflexions sur Madagascar, pays en évolution » qui sont la connexité (ou connectance), la résilience et le rapprochement. Ces termes sont empruntés au cycle adaptatif de Buzz Holling. Imaginez Madagascar se déplaçant sur une trajectoire en forme de huit couché ou représenté par le symbole de l'infini dans l'espace. Sur la boucle du premier plan (à droite sur le dessin) nous avons une phase K au cours de laquelle un système, qui peut être une forêt ou une société, se stabilise, s'établit et en devient conservateur jusqu'à atteindre un point où il est tellement stable qu'il en devient rigide. Avec une faible résilience, un tel système devient vulnérable face à des perturbations extérieures et si de telles perturbations devaient s'appliquer et entraîner l'effondrement du système, on rentrerait dans une phase 'Ω' avec une libération de l'ancien système et de son énergie. Cette libération peut cependant déclencher un renouvellement, dans la phase 'α ' de réorganisation et de renouveau, un nouveau système émerge. On assiste dans la phase 'r' à une croissance et une exploitation rapides et plus le temps passe et plus le système ralentit pour se rapprocher de la phase 'K'. Au cours de cette période de croissance, on assiste à plusieurs processus qui ont cours en même temps avec un accroissement des changements, des innovations et de la prospérité en même temps que les composantes du système gagnent en connexité et en rapprochement. Simultanément, la résilience globale du système baisse de sorte que le système devient rigide, une fois de plus. Certains disent que le contrat de cession de terres à une compagnie sud - coréenne aurait déclenché la crise politique de 2009. Dans un pays tel que Madagascar où l'utilisation traditionnelle des terres et l'attachement aux ancêtres est de règle, de telles annonces pourraient déclencher un choc culturel et un retour de manivelle. Cependant, comme le disait Geoffrey York de l'International Food Policy and Research Institute dans un essai publié en mars 2009, les revendications de terres dans les pays en voie de développement par les pays développés pourraient devenir monnaie courante dans un proche avenir car les terres disponibles sont à la baisse en même temps que la demande pour les ressources augmentent. Et quand on sait que le Sud disposent d'une abondance de terres que le Nord pourrait considérer comme étant à bon marché, les pays en voie de développement pourraient facilement se laisser tenter par des cessions rapides de terres et il en va également ainsi des ressources souterraines. Les ressources naturelles sont de plus en plus souvent au centre des intérêts et comme le souligne à propos Johny Rabenantoandro de QMM/RioTinto dans l'autre préface de ce numéro, il nous faut commencer par apprécier la richesse de la biodiversité et la sauvegarder pour l'avenir de nos enfants. D ès lors, on peut se poser des questions pertinentes sur la façon d'appréhender les changements sociaux, environnementaux et économiques, ou encore sur les moyens qu'ont les systèmes écologiques et sociaux d'encaisser les variations en matière de disponibilité et de demande de ressources sans qu'ils ne s'effondrent. Nos questions sur l'avenir de Madagascar ne trouveront pas un terme ici, car nous avons la chance de vous présenter dans ce numéro des contributions qui abordent justement ces thèmes. Dans la nouvelle rubrique SPOTLIGHTS, Jeffrey Sayer (IUCN) nous éclaire sur des concepts qu'il connaît bien et défend les mosaïques de paysages pour réconcilier la protection de la nature et le développement. Dans une autre contribution, William McConnell de la Michigan State University nous propose une revue de la modélisation de l'influence humaine. La modélisation est un sujet émergeant à Madagascar comme ailleurs et peut s'avérer être un outil utile pour mieux comprendre certains schémas d'occupation des terres comme dans les études portant sur les moyens de subsistance ou d'autres recherches sur des questions sociales. Une autre contribution est basée sur des enquêtes menées auprès des pêcheurs et riziculteurs des marais de l'Alaotra afin d'appréhender leurs conditions de vie et leurs besoins. Et nous nous posons tous les mêmes questions : comment concilier protection de la biodiversité et conditions de vie de l'humanité ? Comment protéger les espèces rares ou menacées et leurs écosystèmes sans compromettre les besoins vitaux des gens ? Pour répondre à ce genre de questions, il nous faut absolument étendre nos connaissances de base pour mieux comprendre les systèmes écologiques au sein desquels on retrouve la protection de la nature et le développement. Les auteurs de deux autres contributions portant sur les lémuriens et sur les oiseaux apportent leur pierre à cet édifice de connaissances. En résumé, bien que ces périodes de changement et de bouleversement retournent des systèmes apparemment stables, il existe également l'espoir que la libération de l'énergie à laquelle nous assistons actuellement à Madagascar se soldera par une « boucle de Holling » avec de nouvelles occasions à saisir. Nous devrions profiter de cet élan pour libérer encore plus d'énergie et la concentrer dans la recherche pour que nous puissions étendre nos connaissances de base, mieux comprendre les connexions des systèmes et renforcer notre résilience pour nous adapter plus rapidement aux futurs changements. Car la seule certitude que nous ayons pour le futur de Madagascar est le changement.

In this work the management effectiveness of a Cuban MPA is assessed using an interdisciplinary approach. A series of three hypotheses are tested to determine how effective the Punta Frances Marine Protected Area (PFMPA) has been in meeting the multiple objectives of conserving biological diversity and ecological integrity, while allowing for the development of economic opportunities for tourism, and satisfying the needs of local and distant human populations. A new typology of benefits derived from MPAs was produced to provide managers with a practical tool that enable them to: 1) identify the benefits at the early stages of MPA creation, 2) state MPA objectives in a clear and measurable way, 3) assess the effectiveness of their MPA in meeting their management objectives. A new methodology was also developed to assess MPA effectiveness. This methodology constitutes an advancement from previous work, and it is based on qualitative and quantitative measurements of benefits depicted in the proposed typology. It has several advantages over previous methods. One of the main advantages is that it can be applied to assess one single MPA or a group of MPAs in a comparative fashion. The case study analyzed showed that to date, the PFMPA shows little signs of being negatively affected by the recreational SCUBA diving activities for which it was intended, given that no significant differences were found between intensively used diving areas and unused diving areas in terms of fish abundance, coral cover and macroalgae cover. Despite this, the PFMPA is not currently providing the full set of benefits to humans and the rest of nature, due mainly to administrative issues. If the PFMPA eventually becomes a National Marine Park (i.e. is fully protected from extractive activities), and management is correctly implemented, an annual economic value of almost USD $127,164,116.37 is forecast. At present the PFMPA does not provide any social or economic benefit to the nearby coastal community of Cocodrilo, thereby maintaining a divorce between local people and the users and managers of the MPA. Conversely, foreigners are receiving most of the benefits associated with recreation in a pristine tropical coastal ecosystem situated on the edge of the Caribbean Sea basin. The interdisciplinary methodologies for assessing effectiveness of MPAs developed in this study provided quantitative and qualitative evidence of a poor level of success in meeting the multiple management objectives of the PFMPA. 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Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, and has a strong heritable basis. We report a genome-wide association analysis of 34,627 CRC cases and 71,379 controls of European ancestry that identifies SNPs at 31 new CRC risk loci. We also identify eight independent risk SNPs at the new and previously reported European CRC loci, and a further nine CRC SNPs at loci previously only identified in Asian populations. We use in situ promoter capture Hi-C (CHi-C), gene expression, and in silico annotation methods to identify likely target genes of CRC SNPs. Whilst these new SNP associations implicate target genes that are enriched for known CRC pathways such as Wnt and BMP, they also highlight novel pathways with no prior links to colorectal tumourigenesis. These findings provide further insight into CRC susceptibility and enhance the prospects of applying genetic risk scores to personalised screening and prevention. ; At the Institute of Cancer Research, this work was supported by Cancer Research UK (C1298/A25514). Additional support was provided by the National Cancer Research Network. In Edinburgh, the work was supported by Programme Grant funding from Cancer Research UK (C348/A12076) and by funding for the infrastructure and staffing of the Edinburgh CRUK Cancer Research Centre. In Birmingham, funding was provided by Cancer Research UK (C6199/A16459). We are grateful to many colleagues within UK Clinical Genetics Departments (for CORGI) and to many collaborators who participated in the VICTOR, QUASAR2 and SCOT trials. We also thank colleagues from the UK National Cancer Research Network (for NSCCG). Support from the European Union [FP7/207–2013, grant 258236] and FP7 collaborative project SYSCOL and COST Action in the UK is also acknowledged [BM1206]. The COIN and COIN-B trials were funded by Cancer Research UK and the Medical Research Council and were conducted with the support of the National Institute of Health Research Cancer Research Network. COIN and COIN-B translational studies were supported by the Bobby Moore Fund from Cancer Research UK, Tenovus, the Kidani Trust, Cancer Research Wales and the National Institute for Social Care and Health Research Cancer Genetics Biomedical Research Unit (2011–2014). We thank the High-Throughput Genomics Group at the Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics (funded by Wellcome Trust grant reference 090532/Z/09/Z) and the Edinburgh Clinical Research Facility (ECRF) Genetics Core, Western General Hospital, Edinburgh, for the generation of genotyping data. We thank the Lothian Birth Cohorts' members, investigators, research associates, and other team members. We thank the Edinburgh Clinical Research Facility (ECRF) Genetics Core, Western General Hospital, Edinburgh, for genotyping. Lothian Birth Cohorts' data collection is supported by the Disconnected Mind project (funded by Age UK), and the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC, for genotyping; BB/F019394/1) and undertaken within the University of Edinburgh Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology (funded by the BBSRC and Medical Research Council RC as part of the LLHW [MR/K026992/1]). ET was supported by Cancer Research UK CDF (C31250/A22804). This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource under Application Number 7441. Generation Scotland received core support from the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorates [CZD/16/6] and the Scottish Funding Council [HR03006]. Genotyping of the GS:SFHS samples was carried out by the Genetics Core Laboratory at the Clinical Research Facility, University of Edinburgh and was funded by the Medical Research Council UK and the Wellcome Trust (Wellcome Trust Strategic Award "STratifying Resilience and Depression Longitudinally" (STRADL) [104036/Z/14/Z]). CFR was supported by a Marie Sklodowska-Curie Intra-European Fellowship Action and received considerable help from many staff in the Department of Endoscopy at the John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford. In Finland, this work was supported by grants from the Academy of Finland [Finnish Center of Excellence Program 2012–2017, 250345 and 2018–2025, 312041], the Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation, the Finnish Cancer Society [personal grant to K.P.], the European Research Council [ERC; 268648], the Sigrid Juselius Foundation, SYSCOL, the Nordic Information for Action eScience Center (NIASC), the Nordic Center of Excellence financed by NordForsk [project 62721, personal grant to K.P.] and State Research Funding of Kuopio University Hospital [B1401]. We acknowledge the computational resources provided by the ELIXIR node, hosted at the CSC–IT Center for Science, Finland, and funded by the Academy of Finland [grants 271642 and 263164], the Ministry of Education and Culture, Finland. V.S. was supported by the Finnish Academy [grant number 139635] and the Finnish Foundation for Cardiovascular Research. J.-P.M. was funded by The Finnish Cancer Foundation and The Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation. Sample collection and genotyping in the Finnish Twin Cohort has been supported by the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, ENGAGE—European Network for Genetic and Genomic Epidemiology, FP7-HEALTH-F4–2007; [grant agreement number 201413], the National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism [grants AA-12502 and AA-00145; to R.J.R. and K02AA018755 to D.M.D.] and the Academy of Finland [grants 100499, 205585, 265240 and 263278 to J.K.]. The work of the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR) was supported by the National Cancer Institute (NCI) of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) under Award number U01 CA167551. The CCFR Illumina GWAS was supported by the NCI/NIH under Award Numbers U01 CA122839 and R01 CA143237 to G.C. The content of this manuscript does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the NCI or any of the collaborating centres in the CCFR, nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the US Government or the CCFR. The CORSA study was funded by FFG BRIDGE (grant 829675, to A.G.), the "Herzfelder'sche Familienstiftung" (grant to A.G.) and was supported by COST Action BM1206. We kindly thank all individuals who agreed to participate in the CORSA study. Furthermore, we thank all cooperating physicians and students and the Biobank Graz of the Medical University of Graz. The DACHS study was supported by grants from the German Research Council (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, BR 1704/6–1, BR 1704/6–3, BR 1704/6–4, BR 1704/6–6 and CH 117/1–1), and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01KH0404, 01ER0814, 01ER0815 and 01ER1505A, 01ER1505B). We thank all participants and cooperating clinicians, and Ute Handte-Daub, Ansgar Brandhorst, Muhabbet Celik and Ursula Eilber for excellent technical assistance. The Croatian study was supported through the 10,001 Dalmatians Project, and institutional support of University Hospital for Tumours, Sestre milosrdnice University Hospital Center. James East and Simon Leedham were funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The views expressed not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. We acknowledge use of genotype data from the British 1958 Birth Cohort DNA collection, which was funded by the Medical Research Council Grant G0000934 and the Wellcome Trust Grant 068545/Z/02. A full list of the investigators who contributed to the generation of the data is available from http://www.wtccc.org.uk. The BCAC study would not have been possible without the contributions of the following: Manjeet K. Bolla, Qin Wang, Kyriaki Michailidou and Joe Dennis. BCAC is funded by Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10118, C1287/A16563). For the BBCS study, we thank Eileen Williams, Elaine Ryder-Mills, Kara Sargus. The BBCS is funded by Cancer Research UK and Breast Cancer Now and acknowledges NHS funding to the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) and the National Cancer Research Network (NCRN). We thank the participants and the investigators of EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition). The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by: Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Germany); the Hellenic Health Foundation, the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (Greece); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); Health Research Fund (FIS), PI13/00061 to Granada, PI13/01162 to EPIC-Murcia, Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra, ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C570/A16491 and C8221/A19170 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk, MR/M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford) (United Kingdom). We thank the SEARCH and EPIC teams, which were funded by a programme grant from Cancer Research UK (C490/A10124) and supported by the UK NIHR BRC at the University of Cambridge. We thank Breast Cancer Now and the Institute of Cancer Research (ICR) for support and funding of the UKBGS, and the study participants, study staff, and the doctors, nurses and other health-care providers and health information sources who have contributed to the study. Genotyping of the PRACTICAL consortium OncoArray was funded by the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) [U19 CA 148537 for ELucidating Loci Involved in Prostate cancer SuscEptibility (ELLIPSE) project and X01HG007492 to the Center for Inherited Disease Research (CIDR) under contract number HHSN268201200008I]. Additional analytic support was provided by NIH NCI U01 CA188392 (PI: Schumacher). The PRACTICAL consortium was supported by Cancer Research UK Grants C5047/A7357, C1287/A10118, C1287/A16563, C5047/A3354, C5047/A10692, C16913/A6135, European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme grant agreement n° 223175 (HEALTH-F2–2009–223175), and The National Institute of Health (NIH) Cancer Post-Cancer GWAS initiative grant: No. 1 U19 CA 148537–01 (the GAME-ON initiative). We would also like to thank the following for funding support: The Institute of Cancer Research and The Everyman Campaign, The Prostate Cancer Research Foundation, Prostate Research Campaign UK (now Prostate Action), The Orchid Cancer Appeal, The National Cancer Research Network UK, The National Cancer Research Institute (NCRI) UK. We are grateful for support of NIHR funding to the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, the Spanish Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) an initiative of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Innovation (Spain), and the Xunta de Galicia (Spain).

One hundred per cent of the natural units of analysis will continue to be negatively affected, with a concomitant decrease in natures contributions to people, given current trends (business as usual), though the magnitude and exact mechanism of the individual drivers will vary by driver and unit of analysis (established but incomplete){5.4}. For example, tropical moist and dry forest and coastal mangroves will continue to exhibit a decline due to land use change regardless of the scenarios considered, but different local factors (agriculturalization and urbanization, respectively) will be involved (well established) {5.4.1, 5.4.11}. Additionally, some drivers will affect units of analysis differently. Empirical evidence indicates differential effects of climate change: boreal forest is extending northward {5.4.2}, while tundra is diminishing in land area (established but incomplete) {5.4.3}. Thus, some drivers, and their relative roles, will need to be further refined on a local scale and with respect to their proximate factors.2. Multiple drivers will act in synergy and further produce biodiversity loss and impact nature?s contributions to people in most of the units of analysis for the Americas (established but incomplete){5.4}. Climate change, combined with other drivers, is predicted to account for an increasingly larger proportion of biodiversity loss in the future, in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems {5.3}. Forest fragmentation, climate change and industrial development increase risk of biodiversity and nature?s contributions to people loss i.e. dry forest unit of analysis {5.4.1.2}. Predictions on invasive species and climate change indicates an increase in habitable areas and their potential impacts on different units of analysis {5.3}.3. Changes in temperature, precipitation regime and extreme climate events are predicted to impact all units of analysis in the Americas (well established) {5.4}. Climate change and the potential impacts on tropical dry forests by changing the frequency of wildfires; change in forest structure and functional composition in the Amazon tropical moist forest; extreme drought events changing nature?s contributions to people in the Amazon region; insect outbreaks and changes in albedo are predicted to significantly impact temperate, boreal and tundra units of analysis, affecting society and indigenous communities and well-being {5.4}.4. Thresholds, or tipping points (conditions resulting in rapid and potentially irreversible changes) may have already been exceeded for some ecosystems and are likely for others (established but incomplete). For instance, it is considered more likely than not that such a threshold has already been passed in the cryosphere with respect to summer sea ice (established but incomplete) {5.4.12}. Model simulations indicate changes in forest structure and species distribution in the Amazon forest in response to global warming and change in precipitation patterns (forest die-back) (established but incomplete) {5.4.1}. So too, a 4oC increase in global temperatures is predicted to likely cause widespread die off of boreal forest due to greater susceptibility to disease {5.4.2} and global temperature increases may have already started persistent thawing of the permafrost {5.4.3}. Under 4°C warming, widespread coral reef mortality is expected with significant impacts on coral reef ecosystems {5.4.11}. Sea surface water temperature increase will cause a reduction of sea grass climatic niche: those populations under seawater surface temperature thresholds higher than the temperature ranges required by the species could become extinct by 2100 with concomitant loss of ecosystem services.IPBES/6/INF/4/Rev.15415. Changes in nature and nature?s contributions to people in most units of analysis are increasingly driven by causal interactions between distant places (i.e. telecouplings) (well established) {5.6.3}, thus scenarios and models that incorporate telecouplings will better inform future policy decisions. Nature and nature?s contributions to people in telecoupled systems can be affected negatively or positively by distant causal interactions. Provision of food and medicine from wild organisms in temperate and tropical grasslands, savannas and forests of South America is being dramatically reduced due to land-use changes driven by the demand of agricultural commodities (e.g. soybeans) mainly from Europe and China. Conservation of insectivorous migratory bats in Mexico benefits pest control in agroecosystems of North America, resulting in increased yields and reduced pesticide costs. Trade policies and international agreements will thus have an increasingly strong effect on environmental outcomes in telecoupled systems.6. Policy interventions have resulted in significant land use changes at the local and regional scales and will continue to do so through 2050. These policies have affected nature?s contributions to people both positively and negatively, and provide an opportunity to manage trade-offs among nature?s contributions to people (well established) {5.4}. Land use changes are now mainly driven by high crop demand, big hydropower plans, rapid urban growth and result in a continued loss of grasslands {5.4.4, 5.4.5}. However, strategies for establishing conservation units have helped in reducing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon from the period of 2004 to 2011 (well established) {5.4.1}. Similarly, wetland protection policies and regulation have helped reduce the conversion of wetlands in North America {5.4.7}. Policies based on command and control measures may be limited in providing effective reduction in ecosystem loss and should be complemented with policies acknowledging multiple values {5.6.3}.7. Policy interventions at vastly differing scales (from national to local) lead to successful outcomes in mitigating impacts to biodiversity (established but incomplete){5.4}. For instance, long-established governmental protections of wetlands in North America have significantly slowed and may have stopped wetland loss based on acreage {5.4.7}. In South America, where mangrove loss continues at a rate of one to two per cent, different stakeholders such as local communities and/or governments have been successful in protecting mangroves based on empowerment and shared interests in their preservation {5.4.11}.8. Pressures to nature are projected to increase by 2050, negatively affecting biodiversity as indicated by a potential reduction of the mean species abundance index. However, the magnitude of the pressures by 2050 are expected to be less under transition pathways to sustainability in comparison to the business as usual scenario (established but incomplete), {5.5}. The Global Biodiversity model projected that under the business as usual scenario mean species abundance had decreased in the Americas by approximately 30 per cent by 2010 compared to its values prior to European settlement of the New World, with historical losses primarily attributed to land transformation to agricultural uses. Using the Global Biodiversity model, there is an additional projected loss of 9.6 per cent by 2050, primarily attributed to some additional land use changes , and especially to climate change, which will steadily increase relative to other drivers considered in the model. However, under the transition pathways to sustainability of global technologies, decentralised solutions, and consumption change pathways, the projected losses are 6 per cent, 5 per cent, and 5 per cent, respectively,IPBES/6/INF/4/Rev.1542achieving a relative improvement of approximately 30 per cent to 50 per cent compared to the business as usual scenario. Under these pathways, climate change mitigation, the expansion of protected areas and the recovery of abandoned lands would significantly contribute to reducing biodiversity loss.9. Participative scenarios have proven to be a successful tool for envisioning potential futures and pathways and to embrace and integrate multiple and sometime conflicting values and their role in promoting bottom-up decision making in the face of futures uncertainties (well established) {5.3}. The use of participative approaches to develop scenarios has increased during recent years in the Americas. The inclusion of different stakeholders and their knowledges in the process of constructing potential futures has promoted a better understanding of the complexity of the social-ecological systems in which they are embedded. This has enhanced co-learning processes between all actors involved, even those normally under-represented in decision-making activities. As a result, several participative scenario exercises have motivated community-based solutions and local governance initiatives all pointing towards the development of adaptive management strategies {5.3}.10. Pathways that consider changes in societal options will lead to less pressure to nature (established but incomplete) {5.6.3}. An example is the indirect impact that shifts in urban dietary preferences have on agricultural production and expansion, and food options that are expected to continue growing into the future. Therefore, not only is there a strong connection between urbanization and economic growth, but also between affluence (and urban preferences) and the global displacement of land use particularly from high-income to low-income countries.11. Available local studies informing regional futures of nature and natures benefit to people do not allow scalability as of yet (well established) {5.3}. The challenge in expanding the findings from local studies resides in the fact that a number of comparable local studies are still not available. Information is scattered throughout the region by the use of different units, methods and scales, which prevents a local-to-regional generalization. The list of nature indicators used in studies at local scales is large and heterogeneous (well established). Even for the same indicator (e.g. biodiversity), different metrics are used (e.g. species-area curve, mean species abundance) {5.5}. In other cases, multiple indicators are used to describe different aspects of biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this latter case, synergies and trade-offs are explicitly mentioned with a clear pattern in which increasing the provision of some indicators result in the detriment of others {5.3}. For example, agriculture expansion leading to loss in biodiversity illustrates a common trend from local studies expected to continue into the future.12. There is a significant research gap in the development of models and scenarios that integrate drivers, nature, natures contributions to people and good quality of life (well established){5.3}. Models and scenarios can be powerful tools to integrate and synthesize the complex dynamics of coupled human and nature systems, and to project their plausible behaviors into the future. Most existing models and scenarios focus on the link between drivers and its impacts on nature. Few cases exist in which models or scenarios integrate the relationships between changes in nature and changes in natures contributions to people and good quality of life {5.3}. Inter-and trans-disciplinary modeling efforts will be required to address this research gap {5.3}. ; Fil: Klatt, Brian. Michigan State University; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Ometto, Jean Pierre. National Institute For Space Research; Brasil ; Fil: García Marquez, Jaime. Universität zu Berlin; Alemania ; Fil: Baptiste, María Piedad. Instituto Alexander Von Humboldt; Colombia ; Fil: Instituto Alexander von Humboldt. Independent Consultant; Canadá ; Fil: Acebey, Sandra Verónica. No especifíca; ; Fil: Guezala, María Claudia. Inter-american Institute For Global Change Research; Perú ; Fil: Mastrangelo, Matias Enrique. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina ; Fil: Pengue, Walter Alberto. Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento; Argentina ; Fil: Blanco, Mariela Verónica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Centro de Estudios e Investigaciones Laborales; Argentina ; Fil: Gadda, Tatiana. Universidade Tecnológica Federal Do Paraná; Brasil ; Fil: Ramírez, Wilson. Instituto Alexander Von Humboldt; Colombia ; Fil: Agard, John. University Of West Indies; Trinidad y Tobago ; Fil: Valle, Mireia. Universidad Laica Eloy Alfaro de Manabí; Ecuador