Suchergebnisse

We present the calibration and reduction of Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 1.3 mm radio wavelength observations of the supermassive black hole candidate at the center of the radio galaxy M87 and the quasar 3C 279, taken during the 2017 April 5-11 observing campaign. These global very long baseline interferometric observations include for the first time the highly sensitive Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA); reaching an angular resolution of 25 mu as, with characteristic sensitivity limits of similar to 1 mJy on baselines to ALMA and similar to 10 mJy on other baselines. The observations present challenges for existing data processing tools, arising from the rapid atmospheric phase fluctuations, wide recording bandwidth, and highly heterogeneous array. In response, we developed three independent pipelines for phase calibration and fringe detection, each tailored to the specific needs of the EHT. The final data products include calibrated total intensity amplitude and phase information. They are validated through a series of quality assurance tests that show consistency across pipelines and set limits on baseline systematic errors of 2% in amplitude and 1 degrees in phase. The M87 data reveal the presence of two nulls in correlated flux density at similar to 3.4 and similar to 8.3 G lambda and temporal evolution in closure quantities, indicating intrinsic variability of compact structure on a. timescale of days, or several light-crossing times for a. few billion solar-mass black hole. These measurements provide the first opportunity to image horizon-scale structure in M87. ; Academy of Finland [274477, 284495, 312496]; European Commission Framework Programme Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation action [731016]; Black Hole Initiative at Harvard University through John Templeton Foundation [60477]; Comision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT, Chile) [PIA ACT172033, Fondecyt 1171506, BASAL AFB-170002, ALMA-conicyt 31140007]; Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACYT, Mexico) [104497, 275201, 279006, 281692]; Direccion General de Asuntos del Personal Academico-Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (DGAPA-UNAM) [IN112417]; European Research Council Synergy Grant "BlackHoleCam: Imaging the Event Horizon of Black Holes" [610058]; Generalitat Valenciana postdoctoral grant [APOSTD/2018/177]; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation [GBMF 947, GBMF-3561, GBMF-5278]; Japanese Government (Monbukagakusho: MEXT) Scholarship; Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) [JP17J08829]; JSPS Overseas Research Fellowships; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) [QYZDJ-SSW-SLH057, QYZDJ-SSW-SYS008]; Leverhulme Trust Early Career Research Fellowship; MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI [18KK0090, JP18K13594, JP18K03656, JP18H03721, 18K03709, 18H01245, 25120007]; MIT International Science and Technology Initiatives (MISTI) Funds; Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) of Taiwan [105-2112-M-001-025-MY3, 106-2112-M-001-011, 106-2119-M-001-027, 107-2119-M-001-017, 107-2119-M-001-020, 107-2119-M-110-005]; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) [80NSSC17K0649]; National Key Research and Development Program of China [2016YFA0400704, 2016YFA0 400702]; National Science Foundation (NSF) [AST-0096454, AST-0352953, AST-0521233, AST-0705062, AST-0905844, AST-0922984, AST-1126433, AST-1140030, DGE-1144085, AST-1207704, AST-1207730]; Natural Science Foundation of China [11573051, 11633006, 11650110427, 10625314, 11721303, 11725312, 11873028, 11873073, U1531245, 11473010]; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC); National Research Foundation of Korea [2015-R1D1A1A01056807, NRF-2015H1A2A1033752, NRF-2015H1D3A1066561]; Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) VICI award [639.043.513]; Spinoza Prize [SPI 78-409]; Swedish Research Council [2017-00648]; Government of Canada through the Department of Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada; Province of Ontario through the Ministry of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade; Russian Science Foundation [17-12-01029]; Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad [AYA2015-63939-C2-1-P, AYA2016-80889-P]; US Department of Energy (USDOE) through the Los Alamos National Laboratory [89233218CNA000001]; Italian Ministero dell'Istruzione Universita e Ricerca through the grant Progetti Premiali 2012-iALMA [CUP C52I13000140001]; ALMA North America Development Fund; NSF [ACI-1548562, DBI-0735191, DBI-1265383, DBI-1743442]; Smithsonian Institution; Academia Sinica; National Key R&D Program of China [2017YFA0402700]; Science and Technologies Facility Council (UK); CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, France); MPG(Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Germany); IGN (Instituto Geografico Nacional, Spain); State of Arizona; NSF Physics Frontier Center award [PHY-0114422]; Kavli Foundation; National Science Foundation [PLR-1248097]; NSF Physics Frontier Center [PHY-1125897]; Jansky Fellowship program of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO); South African Radio Astronomy Observatory (SARAO), which is a facility of the National Research Foundation (NRF), an agency of the Department of Science and Technology (DST) of South Africa; State Agency for Research of the Spanish MCIU through the "Center of Excellence Severo Ochoa" award [SEV-2017-0709]; European Union' s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [730562 RadioNet]; GBMF [GBMF-947]; Compute Ontario; Calcul Quebec; Compute Canada; NSF; CyVerse; [Chandra TM6-17006X]; [AST-1207752]; [MRI-1228509]; [OPP-1248097]; [AST-1310896]; [AST-1312651]; [AST-1337663]; [AST-1440254]; [AST-1555365]; [AST-1715061]; [AST-1615796]; [AST-1716327]; [OISE-1743747]; [AST-1816420]; [AST-1614868] ; This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.

We present measurements of the properties of the central radio source in M87 using Event Horizon Telescope data obtained during the 2017 campaign. We develop and fit geometric crescent models (asymmetric rings with interior brightness depressions) using two independent sampling algorithms that consider distinct representations of the visibility data. We show that the crescent family of models is statistically preferred over other comparably complex geometric models that we explore. We calibrate the geometric model parameters using general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models of the emission region and estimate physical properties of the source. We further fit images generated from GRMHD models directly to the data. We compare the derived emission region and black hole parameters from these analyses with those recovered from reconstructed images. There is a remarkable consistency among all methods and data sets. We find that >50% of the total flux at arcsecond scales comes from near the horizon, and that the emission is dramatically suppressed interior to this region by a factor >10, providing direct evidence of the predicted shadow of a black hole. Across all methods, we measure a crescent diameter of 42 +/- 3 mu as and constrain its fractional width to be <0.5. Associating the crescent feature with the emission surrounding the black hole shadow, we infer an angular gravitational radius of GM/Dc(2) = 3.8 +/- 0.4 mu as. Folding in a distance measurement of 16.8(-0.7)(+0.8) gives a black hole mass of M = 6.5. 0.2 vertical bar(stat) +/- 0.7 vertical bar(sys) x 10(9) M-circle dot. This measurement from lensed emission near the event horizon is consistent with the presence of a central Kerr black hole, as predicted by the general theory of relativity. ; Academy of Finland [274477, 284495, 312496]; European Commission Framework Programme Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation action [731016]; Black Hole Initiative at Harvard University through John Templeton Foundation [60477]; Comision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT, Chile) [PIA ACT172033, Fondecyt 1171506, BASAL AFB-170002, ALMA-conicyt 31140007]; Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACYT, Mexico) [104497, 275201, 279006, 281692]; Direccion General de Asuntos del Personal Academico-Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (DGAPA-UNAM) [IN112417]; European Research Council Synergy Grant "BlackHoleCam: Imaging the Event Horizon of Black Holes" [610058]; Generalitat Valenciana postdoctoral grant [APOSTD/2018/177]; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation [GBMF 947, GBMF-3561, GBMF-5278]; Japanese Government (Monbukagakusho: MEXT) Scholarship; Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) [JP17J08829]; JSPS Overseas Research Fellowships; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) [QYZDJ-SSW-SLH057, QYZDJ-SSW-SYS008]; Leverhulme Trust Early Career Research Fellowship; MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI [18KK0090, JP18K13594, JP18K03656, JP18H03721, 18K03709, 18H01245, 25120007]; MIT International Science and Technology Initiatives (MISTI) Funds; Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) of Taiwan [105-2112-M-001-025-MY3, 106-2112-M-001-011, 106-2119-M-001-027, 107-2119-M-001-017, 107-2119-M-001-020, 107-2119-M-110-005]; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) [80NSSC17K0649]; National Key Research and Development Program of China [2016YFA0400704, 2016YFA0400702]; National Science Foundation (NSF) [AST-0096454, AST-0352953, AST-0521233, AST-0705062, AST-0905844, AST-0922984, AST-1126433, AST-1140030, DGE-1144085, AST-1207704, AST-1207730, AST-1207752, MRI-1228509]; Natural Science Foundation of China [11573051, 11633006, 11650110427, 10625314, 11721303, 11725312, 11873028, 11873073, U1531245, 11473010]; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC); National Research Foundation of Korea [2015-R1D1A1A01056807, NRF-2015H1A2A1033752, NRF-2015H1D3A1066561]; Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) VICI award [639.043.513]; Spinoza Prize [SPI 78-409]; Swedish Research Council [2017-00648]; Government of Canada through the Department of Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada; Province of Ontario through the Ministry of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade; Russian Science Foundation [17-12-01029]; Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad [AYA2015-63939-C2-1-P, AYA2016-80889-P]; US Department of Energy (USDOE) through the Los Alamos National Laboratory [89233218CNA000001]; Italian Ministero dell'Istruzione Universita e Ricerca through the grant Progetti Premiali 2012-iALMA [CUP C52I13000140001]; ALMA North America Development Fund; NSF [DBI-0735191, DBI-1265383, DBI-1743442, ACI-1548562]; Smithsonian Institution; Academia Sinica; National Key R&D Program of China [2017YFA0402700]; Science and Technologies Facility Council (UK); CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, France); MPG (Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Germany); IGN (Instituto Geografico Nacional, Spain); State of Arizona; NSF Physics Frontier Center award [PHY-0114422]; Kavli Foundation; National Science Foundation [PLR-1248097]; NSF Physics Frontier Center [PHY-1125897]; South African Radio Astronomy Observatory (SARAO), which is a facility of the National Research Foundation (NRF), an agency of the Department of Science and Technology (DST) of South Africa; Compute Ontario; Calcul Quebec; Compute Canada; NSF; GBMF [GBMF-947]; CyVerse; [OPP-1248097]; [AST-1310896]; [AST-1312651]; [AST-1337663]; [AST-1440254]; [AST-1555365]; [AST-1715061]; [AST-1614868]; [AST-1615796]; [AST-1716327]; [OISE-1743747]; [AST-1816420] ; This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.

Background Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. Methods We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. Findings Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4.00% (95% uncertainty interval 3.89-4.12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2.72% [2.61-2.84]) and increased by less than $ 1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5.55% [5.18-5.95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3.71% [3.10-4.34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $ 8.0 trillion (7.8-8.1) in 2016 (comprising 8.6% [8.4-8.7] of the global economy and $ 10.3 trillion [10.1-10.6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$ 5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $ 491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $ 81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $ 40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0.4% (0.3-0.4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10.0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($ 9.5 billion, 24.3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6.27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($ 644.7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $ 15.0 trillion (14.0-16.0) by 2050 (reaching 9.4% [7.6-11.3] of the global economy and $ 21.3 trillion [19.8-23.1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1.84% (1.68-2.02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0.6% (0.6-0.7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15.7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130.2 (122.9-136.9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125.9 [113.7-138.1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments' increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. Interpretation Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. ; Peer reviewed

학위논문(석사)--서울대학교 대학원 :국제대학원 국제학과(국제지역학전공),2019. 8. Sheen, Seong-Ho. ; 개발원조는 외교 정책을 수행하는 데 있어 중요한 도구 중 하나이므로 이는 공여국과 수원국의 국가이익, 외교전략 및 국가비전을 뚜렷하게 드러낸다. 동남아시아에서 미국과 중국의 원조 경쟁이 점점 치열해지고 있는 가운데, 점차 떠오르는 중국의 저우추취(走出去)전략에 있어, 미국은 공여국의 지배적인 위치를 점하지 못하고 있다. 동남아는 미국의 아시아 태평양 지역전략의 중추적인 위치에 놓여있고, 중국의 인접지역 이므로, 미 - 중의 경제와 안보에 밀접히 연관된 지역이다. 동남아시아의 지정학적 특성상 미 - 중 양국이 자신의 국가이익을 수호하고자 개발원조의 수단으로 지역 세력균형을 유지하기 위해 양국의 경쟁이 이 지역에서 펼쳐지고 있다. 본 논문은 캄보디아와 필리핀 두 지역을 사례로 아래의 두 연구 목적을 달성하고자 한다: 1) 21 세기에 중국과 미국이 캄보디아와 필리핀에 제공 한 개발원조에 초점을 맞추어, 성격이 다른 두 개의 개발원조 및 수원국의 반응의 유사점과 차이점을 비교하고자 한다. 2) 개발원조의 관점에서 캄보디아와 필리핀이 미국과 중국 사이에서 망설이는 이유를 설명하고자 한다. 물론, 캄보디아는 중국과 냉전이후부터 이어진 전통적 우호관계에 있는 국가이고, 필리핀은 미국의 동맹국으로서 아세안국가에서 가장 많은 군사적원조를 받고, 미국의 의제에 굳건히 따르는 나라이므로, 두 나라는 아세안 국가에서 서로 정반대의 입장을 취하고 있는 나라라고 할 수 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고, 21세기 초부터, 특히 중국이 '일대일로' 사업을 추진하고 난 후, 양국은 미국을 점차 멀리하고 중국의 개발원조에 관심을 갖기 시작했고, 이는 양국의 외교정책이 변화하고 있음을 시사한다. 개발원조를 기점으로, 동남아시아 지역의 세력균형이 변화되고 있는 모습을 발견할 수 있다. 본 논문은 공여국과 수원국의 시각에서 이 현상에 대해 설명하고자 하며, 이는 국가이익의 변동, 미 – 중이 제공하는 개발원조의 차이, 그리고 캄보디아와 필리핀의 국가 지도자 자체가 두 강대국에 대한 태도의 변화로 이어졌다고 주장하는 바이다. ; Foreign aid has always been one of the most important tools in implementing foreign policy, and offers a distinct perspective to observe one's national interests, foreign strategy and objective, either for the donors or the receivers. With China's rising and its implementation of going out policy, U.S. can no longer keep its position as the dominant donor around the world. Especially when we come to the area of Southeast Asia, one of the most important strategic region for U.S. as a pillar in Asia-Pacific and for China as key neighborhood both in economic and security, the competition of foreign aid has become much more intense in order to achieve one's own national interests as well as trip each other in balancing of power. This article selects Cambodia and the Philippines as two targeting cases, trying to achieve two purposes, 1) focus on the foreign aid provided by China and the United States to Cambodia and the Philippines in the 21st century, trying to compare the similarities and differences between the two-different kind of foreign aid and the responses of recipient countries; 2) explain Cambodia and Philippine's swing between U.S. and China through the perspective of foreign aid. Cambodia has been a traditional ally of China since the Cold War, while the Philippines act as the traditional security ally of the United States who receive the most U.S. military assistance in ASEAN and always been firmly following the U.S. in the international agenda. Through the whole research, although Cambodia and the Philippines can be two different types of country representing ASEAN in playing between U.S. and China, as they always show opposite stands towards China and U.S. in ASEAN, however, since the beginning of the 21st century, especially since China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative policy, both the two countries show a tendency to drift apart from the United States but approach China in terms of foreign aid, which can be seen as a symptom for their changes of foreign policy. Taking foreign aid as an entry point, we can see the direction of power balancing changes in the southeast Asia region. This article tries to explain this interesting phenomenon through both of the perspective of the donors and the recipients. I argue that it is the national interest changes, the different features between the foreign aid offered by China and U.S., as well as the national leader themselves led to their different attitudes towards two great powers. ; Chapter I Introduction 2 1. Background of the study 2 2. Literature review 5 3. Methodology 9 Chapter II The Foreign Aid from U.S. and China 12 1. Definition of foreign aid 12 2. Comparison between U.S. and China offering foreign aid 16 3. The history of foreign aid in ASEAN from U.S. 21 4. The history of foreign aid in ASEAN from China 26 Chapter III Foreign Aid to Cambodia since 21th Century 29 1. Change of foreign aid from U.S. and China 29 2. Comparison of foreign aid between U.S. and China 31 3. Cambodias changing attitudes between U.S. and China 40 Chapter IV Foreign Aid to the Philippines since 21th Century 45 1. Change of foreign aid from U.S. and China 45 2. Comparison of foreign aid between U.S. and China 47 3. The Philippines changing attitudes between U.S. and China 53 Chapter V Conclusion 58 Bibliography 61 ; Master

Dual Masters ; M.SC.CONFLICT ANALYSIS&RES. ; M.A.CONFLICT RES.&MED.STUD. ; Whether or not policy realistically can be utilized to meet the goals it was designed for is debate that has plagued governments since states first began publicizing their actions for public digestion. In the current geopolitical landscape of Europe and the titular "West," perhaps no such example is currently more thought-provoking than the official international response to what is in recent years being referred to as "the migrant crisis" – the current influx of irregular migrants towards/into Europe due to the violent and chaotic circumstances afflicting significant portions of the Middle East and Northern- and Sub-Saharan-Africa. There are complaints being circulated about the economic impacts of such migrants, but no complaint has been as well-publicized as that of security and the rampant belief that allowing refugees to settle would make host countries vulnerable to the violent effects of radicalization. And although this paper will take a very different approach and do not subscribe to the idea that refugees represent a threat, it is first important to note that I am not dismissing these fears – there are indeed reports of violent attacks being committed by or associated with refugees and migrants in Europe, and in fact very recently the conviction of one such attacker has brought the discussion about refugee violence back to the forefront of conversations about migrants and security. It is understandable that this would generate fear, but that does not necessarily mean that the specific fears being generated or the EU responses to those events at the policy level are justified or productive. Examining the actual relationship between refugees, radicalization, and security requires looking past sensational headlines and politically-angled statements from government officials. This research will rely on both quantitative and qualitative analysis for several reasons. The first is that quantitative analysis serves as a necessary numerical representation to highlight that findings are not case-specific; moreover, statistical evidence is often used to support and incite policy change at the governmental level. To have a truly well-rounded and established piece of research on the topic of radicalization, it will be necessary to support certain claims with actual data about the people and circumstances I will be discussing. A review of the literature will be present throughout the paper as different sources are relevant to different aspects that will be brought into the fold as my research progresses, however it will be featured most heavily in Chapter 1 because this chapter will focus on painting a more holistic picture of the current situation regarding refugee circumstances and radicalization. Because this paper's research question itself directly challenges "official" governmental conceptions and policies, I will be reviewing literature from an extremely wide variety of sources (as opposed to only those which would be palatable to current EU government opinions, which have thus far fallen short). Although the purpose of this paper is to be productive and provide insight into the current components of the refugee experience in relation to European security, focusing exclusively on EU approved sources would massively skew the perspective in favor of the same system that has created the situation I am attempting to analyze. Such a bias would be a fatal flaw in a paper meant to critically examine the effectiveness and rationale of decisions at the executive level, so although I will vet my sources carefully, I will intentionally examine very different perspectives driving different literary pieces and conclusions. Although interviews with criminalized members of NGOs would undoubtedly be an asset to this paper, I made the conscious decision to avoid the ethical dilemma that would come with interviewing people formerly or currently being prosecuted about the activities they are being indicted for. This would go directly against the nature and purpose of this research, and I am confident that other available sources, such as public statements from NGOs and articles written about them, will also be effective at presenting that perspective. Likewise, I will not be interviewing refugees as they are members of a vulnerable population that may fear retaliation for speaking about their experiences. Instead, I will use pre-existing trustworthy sources that utilize refugee voices to fill in the gaps. Finally, I will utilize miniature case studies of individual acts of terrorism, refugee camps, and specific countries throughout the paper to highlight how different conditions can impact outcomes both in the experiences of refugees in Europe and actual border security. This is important because of the breadth of this study, which would not lend itself well to only one or two major case studies; the nature of radicalization and the limited number of terrorist attacks involved in such a limited number of examples would not be reliable or persuasive enough to make an argument. A more complete picture of circumstances must include similar and contrary examples through every facet of the study – camp conditions, NGO roles/criminalization/support, country policies, et cetera – to ensure that the information and conclusions being presented have actual basis and are wide spread enough to be relevant. ; N/A

Background Chronic hepatitis B is a liver disease associated with high morbidity and mortality. Chronic hepatitis B requires long-term management aiming to reduce the risks of hepatocellular inflammatory necrosis, liver fibrosis, decompensated liver cirrhosis, liver failure, and liver cancer, as well as to improve health-related quality of life. Acupuncture is being used to decrease discomfort and improve immune function in people with chronic hepatitis B. However, the benefits and harms of acupuncture still need to be established in a rigorous way. Objectives To assess the benefits and harms of acupuncture versus no intervention or sham acupuncture in people with chronic hepatitis B. Search methods We undertook electronic searches of the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, Science Citation Index Expanded, Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Chongqing VIP ( CQVIP), Wanfang Data, and SinoMed to 1 March 2019. We also searched the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform ( www.who.int/ictrp), ClinicalTrials.gov ( www.clinicaltrials.gov/), and the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR) for ongoing or unpublished trials until 1 March 2019. Selection criteria We included randomised clinical trials, irrespective of publication status, language, and blinding, comparing acupuncture versus no intervention or sham acupuncture in people with chronic hepatitis B. We included participants of any sex and age, diagnosed with chronic hepatitis B as defined by the trialists or according to guidelines. We allowed co-interventions when the co-interventions were administered equally to all intervention groups. Data collection and analysis Review authors in pairs individually retrieved data from reports and through correspondence with investigators. Primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, proportion of participants with one or more serious adverse events, and health-related quality of life. Secondary outcomes were hepatitis B-related mortality, hepatitis B-related morbidity, and adverse events considered not to be serious. We presented the pooled results as risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We assessed the risks of bias using risk of bias domains with predefined definitions. We put more weight on the estimate closest to zero effect when results with fixed-effect and random-effects models differed. We evaluated the certainty of evidence using GRADE. Main results We included eight randomised clinical trials with 555 randomised participants. All included trials compared acupuncture versus no intervention. These trials assessed heterogeneous acupuncture interventions. All trials used heterogeneous co-interventions applied equally in the compared groups. Seven trials included participants with chronic hepatitis B, and one trial included participants with chronic hepatitis B with comorbid tuberculosis. All trials were assessed at overall high risk of bias, and the certainty of evidence for all outcomes was very low due to high risk of bias for each outcome, imprecision of results (the confidence intervals were wide), and publication bias (small sample size of the trials, and all trials were conducted in China). Additionally, 79 trials lacked the necessary methodological information to ensure their inclusion in our review. None of the included trials aim to assess all-cause mortality, serious adverse events, health-related quality of life, hepatitis B-related mortality, and hepatitis B-related morbidity. We are uncertain whether acupuncture, compared with no intervention, has an effect regarding adverse events considered not to be serious (RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.43 to 1.06; I² = 0%; 3 trials; 203 participants; very low-certainty evidence) or detectable hepatitis B e-antigen (HBeAg) (RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.11 to 3.68; I² = 98%; 2 trials; 158 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Acupuncture showed a reduction in detectable hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA (a non-validated surrogate outcome; RR 0.45, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.74; 1 trial, 58 participants; very low-certainty evidence). We are uncertain whether acupuncture has an effect regarding the remaining separately reported adverse events considered not to be serious. Three of the eight included trials received academic funding from government or hospital. None of the remaining five trials reported information on funding. Authors' conclusions The clinical effects of acupuncture for chronic hepatitis B remain unknown. The included trials lacked data on all-cause mortality, health-related quality of life, serious adverse events, hepatitis-B related mortality, and hepatitis-B related morbidity. The vast number of excluded trials lacked clear descriptions of their design and conduct. Whether acupuncture influences adverse events considered not to be serious is uncertain. It remains unclear if acupuncture affects HBeAg, and if it is associated with reduction in detectable HBV DNA. Based on available data from only one or two small trials on adverse events considered not to be serious and on the surrogate outcomes HBeAg and HBV DNA, the certainty of evidence is very low. In view of the wide usage of acupuncture, any conclusion that one might try to draw in the future should be based on data on patient and clinically relevant outcomes, assessed in large, high-quality randomised sham-controlled trials with homogeneous groups of participants and transparent funding.

Summary Background Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. Methods We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories—government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending—and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. Findings Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89–4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61–2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18–5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10–4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8–8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4–8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1–10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184–5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461–524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74–89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38–43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3–0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0–16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6–11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8–23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68–2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6–0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9–136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7–138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments' increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. Interpretation Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The object of research is the foreign experience of the dual form of education. One of the most problematic places is the effective transfer of the dual form of education to countries with a lack of experience in the implementation and functioning of this type of education. The difficulty of transferring dual education lies in the long-term formation of a model in the countries of origin. Characteristic features of dual learning models were obtained as a result of the influence of local factors and conditions of the countries of origin. The complexity of the transfer also lies in the formalization of the assessment data of the potential of the country of implementation. To solve this problem, fuzzy logic methods are best suited. The advantage of using a fuzzy logic apparatus is the ability to formalize the data of complex systems, converting qualitative indicators into quantitative ones and vice versa. Method of fuzzy inference of the Matlab software environment is used.In this paper, an analysis of the prerequisites for the introduction of dual education in Ukraine is carried out. The analysis of the foreign experience of dual education is carried out. As a result, factors are identified and grouped into three subsystems (economic, political, cultural and educational) to assess the potential for introducing dual education in Ukraine.The simulation results shown in the study provide an answer to the question of the feasibility of implementing the dual form of education and assessing this potential of Ukraine. The data obtained as a result of modeling indicate the feasibility of introducing dual education in Ukraine. This is due to the fact that the fuzzy modeling method showed that the integral estimate belongs to the mean of the output term. Among the positive factors that influenced this result, it is worth noting the level of government spending on GDP and the level of prestige of vocational education.The advantage of research is a quantitative assessment of the potential of transfer of the dual form of education in Ukraine, which is also important from the point of view of the international discourse of transfer of the dual form of education. The paper formalizes the model of the country's potential for the introduction of dual education. ; Объектом исследования является зарубежный опыт дуальной формы обучения. Одним из самых проблемных мест является эффективный перенос дуальной формы обучения в страны с отсутствием опыта внедрения и функционирования данного типа обучения. Сложность переноса дуального обучения состоит в многолетнем формировании модели в странах зарождения. Характерные черты моделей дуального обучения были получены в результате воздействия местных факторов и условий стран зарождения. Сложность переноса также заключается в формализации данных оценки потенциала страны внедрения. Для решения данной задачи лучше всего подходят методы нечеткой логики. Преимуществом использования аппарата нечеткой логики является возможность формализации данных сложных систем, конвертирования качественных показателей в количественные и наоборот. В исследовании использован метод нечеткого вывода программной среды Matlab.В данной работе был проведен анализ предпосылок внедрения дуального образования в Украине. Осуществлен анализ зарубежного опыта дуального обучения. В результате, были выделены и сгруппированы в три подсистемы (экономическую, политическую и культурно-образовательную) факторы для оценки потенциала внедрения дуального образования в Украине.Результаты моделирования, показанные в исследовании, дают ответ на вопрос целесообразности реализации дуальной формы образования и оценки данного потенциала Украины. Данные, полученные в результате моделирования, свидетельствуют о целесообразности внедрения дуального обучения в Украине. Это связано с тем, что метод нечеткого моделирования показал принадлежность интегральной оценки к среднему терма вывода. Среди положительных факторов, повлиявших на данный результат, стоит отметить уровень расходов государства ВВП на образование и уровень престижа профессионального образования.Преимуществом исследования является количественная оценка потенциала трансфера дуальной формы обучения в Украине, что важно также с точки зрения международного дискурса трансфера дуальной формы обучения. В работе формализована модель потенциала страны внедрения дуального обучения. ; Об'єктом дослідження є закордонний досвід дуальної форми навчання. Одним із найбільш проблемних місць є ефективне перенесення дуальної форми навчання у країни із відсутністю досвіду впровадження та функціонування даного типу навчання. Складність перенесення дуального навчання полягає у багатолітньому формуванні моделі у країнах зародження. Характерні риси моделей дуального навчання були набуті в результаті впливу місцевих чинників та умов країн зародження. Складність перенесення також полягає у формалізації даних оцінки потенціалу країни впровадження. Для вирішення даної задачі найкраще підходять методи нечіткої логіки. Перевагою використання апарату нечіткої логіки є можливість формалізації даних складних систем, конвертування якісних показників у кількісні та навпаки. У дослідженні використано метод нечіткого виведення програмного середовища Matlab.У даній роботі був проведений аналіз передумов впровадження дуальної освіти в Україні. Здійснено аналіз закордонного досвіду дуального навчання. В результаті, були виділені та згруповані у три підсистеми (економічну, політичну та культурно-освітню) фактори для здійснення оцінки потенціалу впровадження дуальної освіти в Україні. Результати моделювання, показані у дослідженні, дають відповідь на питання доцільності реалізації дуальної форми освіти та оцінки даного потенціалу України. Дані, отримані в результаті моделювання, свідчать про доцільність впровадження дуального навчання в Україні. Це пов'язано із тим, що метод нечіткого моделювання показав належність інтегральної оцінки до середнього терму виведення. Серед позитивних чинників, що вплинули на даний результат варто відмітити рівень витрат держави ВВП на освіту та рівень престижу професійної освіти. Перевагою дослідження є кількісна оцінка потенціалу трансферу дуальної форми навчання в Україні, що важливо також із точки зору міжнародного дискурсу трансферу дуальної форми навчання. У роботі формалізовано модель потенціалу країни впровадження дуального навчання.

The technology of waste co-processing in cement kilns has proven to be a reliable, efficient and convenient method of waste disposal (domestic and industrial). However, countries around the world face the following key barriers to the implementation of the technology of waste co-processing in cement kilns: fuzzy legislation, lack of financial support, public acceptance, etc. These barriers can be partially eliminated by the measures proposed in this study.In addition, waste sorting and processing are often not carried out systematically. National and international cement companies operate modern cement kilns which could substitute a part of their fossil fuel and raw material with suitable waste streams to be co-processed. Co-processing non-recyclable waste is often a valid option to close loops towards circular economy. This technology is widely used in different European countries, but with different environmental impacts. Therefore, it is important to investigate the environmental potential of this technology, which is variable for different waste morphology conditions.The potential benefits of the technology of solid waste co-processing in cement kilns are investigated. The methodology of estimation of greenhouse gas emissions for biogenic emissions in determining the benefits and environmental potential of the technology is applied. The example of the Ukrainian cement industry identified the possibility of: reducing the anthracite coal consumption in clinker production up to 262 kt/a; preventing up to 284 ktCO2eq/a emissions from coal substitution. For the waste management sector, the potential of co-processing is identified: MSW disposal up to 1,213 ktMSW/a; prevention of greenhouse gas emissions up to 111 ktCO2eq/a in landfills. These findings are important in a number of countries, as the key barriers to co-processing in cement kilns are related. Environmental analysis results and proposed measures to avoid the identified key barriers to technology implementation can be applied to many countries ; Технологія спільного спалення відходів у цементних печах зарекомендувала себе надійним, ефективним та зручним методом утилізації відходів (побутових та промислових). Проте країни по всьому світу зіштовхуються з наступними ключовими бар'єрами на шляху до впровадження технології сумісної переробки відходів у цементних печах: нечітке законодавство, відсутність фінансової підтримки, сприйняття громадськістю, тощо. Ці бар'єри можуть бути частково усунуті за допомогою заходів, запропонованих у цьому дослідженні.Крім того, сортування та переробка відходів часто не проводяться систематично. Національні та міжнародні цементні компанії працюють із сучасними печами, які можуть замінити частину викопного палива та сировини відповідними потоками підготовлених відходів, які підлягають спільному спаленню. Спільне спалення відходів, що не підлягають вторинній переробці, є надійним варіантом закриття існуючих прогалин для впровадження принципів циркуляційної економіки. Ця технологія широко використовується в різних країнах Європи, але з різним екологічним впливом на навколишнє середовище. Отже, важливим є дослідити екологічний потенціал цієї технології, який є змінним для різних умов морфології відходів.Досліджено потенційні переваги впровадження технології спільного спалення твердих побутових відходів у цементних печах. Застосовано методику оцінки викидів парникових газів для біогенних викидів при визначенні переваг та екологічного потенціалу при впровадженні технології. На прикладі української цементної промисловості визначено можливість: зменшення споживання антрацитового вугілля у виробництві клінкеру до 262 тис. т/рік; запобігання утворенню до 284 тис. т викидів CO2екв/рік від заміщення вугілля. Для сектору поводження з відходами було визначено можливий потенціал від спільного спалення: утилізація побутових відходів до 1 213 тис. тТПВ/рік; запобігання утворенню парникових газів до 111 тис. тCO2екв/рік на звалищах. Ці висновки важливі для ряду країн, оскільки ключові бар'єри для здійснення спільного спалення відходів у цементних печах є спорідненими. Результати екологічного аналізу та запропоновані заходи щодо уникнення визначених ключових бар'єрів впровадження технології можуть бути використані для умов багатьох країн ; Технология совместного сжигания отходов в цементных печах зарекомендовала себя надежным, эффективным и удобным методом утилизации отходов (бытовых и промышленных). Однако, страны по всему миру сталкиваются со следующими ключевыми барьерами на пути внедрения технологии совместного сжигания отходов в цементных печах: нечеткое законодательство, отсутствие финансовой поддержки, восприятие общественностью, и тому подобное. Эти барьеры могут быть частично устранены с помощью мер, предложенных в данном исследовании.Кроме того, сортировка и переработка отходов часто не проводятся систематически. Национальные и международные цементные компании работают с современными печами, которые могут заменить часть ископаемого топлива и сырья соответствующими потоками подготовленных отходов, подлежащих совместному сжиганию. Совместное сжигание отходов, не подлежащих вторичной переработке, является надежным вариантом закрытия существующих пробелов для внедрения принципов циркуляционной экономики. Эта технология широко используется в разных странах Европы, но с разным экологическим воздействием на окружающую среду. Итак, важно исследовать экологический потенциал этой технологии, который является переменным для различных условий морфологии отходов.Исследованы потенциальные преимущества внедрения технологии совместного сжигания твердых бытовых отходов в цементных печах. Применена методика оценки выбросов парниковых газов для биогенных выбросов при определении преимуществ и экологического потенциала при внедрении технологии. На примере украинской цементной промышленности определена возможность: уменьшения потребления антрацитового угля в производстве клинкера до 262 тыс. т/год; предотвращения образования до 284 тыс. т выбросов CO2екв в год от замещения угля. Для сектора обращения с отходами был определен возможный потенциал от совместного сжигания: утилизация бытовых отходов до 1213 тыс. т ТПВ в год; предотвращение образования парниковых газов до 111 тыс. т CO2екв в год от свалок. Эти выводы важны для ряда стран, поскольку ключевые барьеры для внедрения совместного сжигания отходов в цементных печах являются родственными. Результаты экологического анализа и предложенные меры по предотвращению определенных ключевых барьеров внедрения технологии могут быть использованы для условий многих стран

Ukraine is on the way budget relationships reform realization, one of which tasks is adaptation of current legislation to EU legislation in order to create European conditions of development in country and in budget system particularly.Budget control is the type of state finance control, integrated and telic system of economic and legal measures of authorized control subjects, aimed on providing of eligibility and effectiveness of budget process parties while drafting, reviewing, adoption of budgets, fulfillment, amending, considering reports on budgets' fulfillment, which compose the budget system of Ukraine. From that point of view the title of Chapter 17 of Budget Code of Ukraine (hereinafter BCU) "Control on maintenance of budget legislation" means not the essence of state finance control but its aim. The powers of controlling subjects which are established by this chapter have mostly duplicative character while current Chapter 5 of BCU determines types of budget legislation violations and means of influence for such violations still contains inaccuracies and gaps in expression of legal norms concerning budget control.Lack of budget control principles implementation on the regulatory level causes commitment of budget violation. On Accounting Chamber reports while fulfilling the controlling measures concerning the effectiveness of budget funds usage for ensuring activities and performing powers of public authorities more than 23 million UAH have been identified as used with violation of the requirements of the current legislation, and almost 313 million UAH were used inefficiently According to the calculations, the state budget short received income of almost 0.6 million UAH and also 10.3 million UAH were transferred to budgets exceeding the established deadlines/ Thus, the system of budgetary control requires improvement by defining a modern concept of its organization and implementing appropriate amendments to the current legislation. With this aim the authors have studied international experience, which shows the necessity of integrating new contemporary concept of budgetary control, which should be oriented to preliminary and current budgetary control. ; Україна перебуває на шляху проведення реформи бюджетних відносин, одним із завдань якої є адаптація чинного законодавства до законодавства Європейського Союзу (ЄС) із метою створення європейських умов розвитку країни і бюджетної системи зокрема.Бюджетний контроль — це вид державного фінансового контролю, комплексна і цілеспрямована система економіко-правових заходів уповноважених суб'єктів контролю, спрямована на забезпечення законності та ефективності дій учасників бюджетного процесу під час складання, розгляду, затвердження бюджетів, виконання, внесення змін та ухвалення звітів про виконання бюджетів, що становлять бюджетну систему України. З цих позицій назва глави 17 БКУ «Контроль за дотриманням бюджетного законодавства» визначає не сутність державного фінансового контролю, а його мету. Повноваження суб'єктів контролю, які встановлюються цією главою, мають переважно дублюючий характер, а чинний розділ 5 БКУ, хоч і встановлює види порушень бюджетного законодавства і заходи впливу за ці порушення, містить неточності та пробіли у формулюванні правових норм щодо проведення бюджетного контролю.Нереалізованість на нормативному рівні принципів бюджетного контролю спричиняє вчинення бюджетних правопорушень. За звітами Рахункової палати під час проведення контрольних заходів щодо ефективності використання бюджетних коштів на забезпечення діяльності та виконання повноважень державними органами було виявлено понад 23 млн грн використаних із порушенням вимог чинного законодавства, і майже 313 млн грн — неефективно. За розрахунками, державним бюджетом недотримано надходжень на суму майже 0,6 млн грн і перераховано до бюджетів із перевищенням установлених термінів — 10,3 млн гривень. Отже, система бюджетного контролю потребує вдосконалення шляхом визначення сучасної концепції його організації і внесення відповідних змін у чинне законодавство. З цією метою було вивчено досвід закордонних країн, який свідчить про доцільність упровадження нової сучасної концепції бюджетного контролю, орієнтованої на попередній і поточний бюджетний контроль. ; Украина находится на пути проведения реформы бюджетных отношений, одной из задач которой является адаптация действующего законодательства к законодательству Европейского Cоюза (ЕС) с целью создания европейских условий развития страны и бюджетной системы в частности.Бюджетный контроль — это вид государственного финансового контроля, комплексная и целенаправленная система экономико-правовых мероприятий уполномоченных контролирующих субъектов, направленная на обеспечение законности и эффективности действий участников бюджетного процесса во время составления, рассмотрения, утверждения бюджетов, исполнения, изменения и принятия отчетов о исполнении бюджетов, составляющих бюджетную систему Украины. С этих позиций название главы 17 БКУ «Контроль за соблюдением бюджетного законодательства» определяет не сущность государственного финансового контроля, а его цель. Полномочия контролирующих субъектов, которые устанавливаются данной главой, имеют преимущественно дублирующий характер, а действующая глава 5 БКУ, хотя и устанавливает виды нарушений бюджетного законодательства и меры воздействия за эти нарушения, содержит неточности и пробелы в формулировке правовых норм о проведении бюджетного контроля.Нереализованность на нормативном уровне принципов бюджетного контроля влечет совершение бюджетных правонарушений. По отчетам Счетной палаты при проведении контрольных мероприятий по эффективности использования бюджетных средств на обеспечение деятельности и выполнение полномочий государственными органами было выявлено более 23 млн грн, использованных с нарушением требований действующего законодательства, и почти 313 млн грн — неэффективно. По расчетам, государственным бюджетом недополучено поступлений на сумму почти 0,6. млн грн и перечислено в бюджеты с превышением установленных сроков — 10,3 млн гривен. Итак, система бюджетного контроля требует усовершенствования путем определения современной концепции его организации и внесения соответствующих изменений в действующее законодательство. С этой целью изучен опыт зарубежных стран, который свидетельствует о целесообразности внедрения новой современной концепции бюджетного контроля, ориентированного на предыдущий и текущий бюджетный контроль.

This thesis investigates the firm-level dynamics of export diversification in Botswana. Botswana is a country characterised by a high level of export concentration, with diamonds dominating its export bundle. With the stock of diamonds expected to be depleted in the near future, Botswana faces the urgent challenge of diversifying its export bundle. While much analysis has focused on the product composition of exports, little focus has been placed on the role that firms play in driving the composition of exports in Botswana over time. This thesis fills this gap in the literature. The analysis draws on various unique and unexplored databases. Firstly, it uses a panel of transaction level data for the period 2003 to 2012 obtained from Statistics Botswana. Second, the transaction data are merged with a panel of manufacturing firm data for the period 2003 to 2012 obtained from Department of Industrial Affairs. Finally, tariff data at the product level (HS8) for the period 2003 to 2012 are obtained from the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). Drawing on these databases allows for a detailed firm level analysis of export diversification not previously possible for Botswana. The thesis is comprised of three main chapters in addition to the general introduction and concluding chapters. The first main chapter (chapter 2) uses the transaction data to document the stylized facts associated with Botswana's firm-level export diversification. Their consistency is assessed with empirical evidence in other countries. The background analysis reveals that a majority of exporting firms (over 70%) export to a single export destination and a small fraction of firms (less than 25%) export to multiple export destinations. However, as found in the international literature, export values are highly concentrated amongst the multi-destination exporters. The analysis also reveals that diamonds dominate Botswana's export bundle, which are exported to one major destination, being the United Kingdom. An additional focus of the chapter is the relationship between firm size and changes in export diversification, defined in terms of product and destination margins. To study the dynamics between firm export size and diversification, a Multinomial logit regression approach is adopted. This technique is used to estimate the predicted probabilities of moving between different product-destination categories as a firm grows in export value. The results reveal nonlinearities in the evolution of a firm's diversification path. At low values of exports, firms concentrate on selling a single product to a single destination. As firms grow in export value, they expand the number of products to the destination rather than the number of destinations of that product. This is a striking contrast to results found in other countries whose diversification path has been found to be driven mainly by the expansion of the number of destinations per product (Stirbat et al., 2011; Cadot et al., 2013). Only at higher export values do the multi-product firms transition into exporting to multiple destinations. The contrasting diversification path for Botswana suggests that diversification into new export markets is a key constraint to growth and diversification of Botswana's export bundle. Therefore, the remaining chapters of the thesis explore firm level factors determining export destination diversification. Chapter 3 looks at the role of firm productivity in driving the diversification of firm exports across destinations. An important component of this analysis is the productivity relationship associated with manufacturing firm's exporting out of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). To assess the relationship, the transaction data are merged with the manufacturing database. Given the high number of zero trade flows for many firms, the Zeroinflated Poisson regression model is used to estimate the link between firm productivity and export destination diversification. The results strongly support the prediction that more productive firms enter the export markets. The results also show that upon entering the export market, only the relatively productive firms become multi-destination exporters. The results also confirm the presence of a productivity premium for firms exporting out of the SACU region. Chapter 4 tests the complementary input hypothesis where access to imported intermediate inputs enhance productivity thus enabling firms to access more export destinations. It further assesses whether the impact varies across differentiated inputs or homogenous inputs. Three measures are used to proxy input complementarity, namely: number of product-source country pairs, number of source countries and total import value. Using a poisson model with fixed effects, the results provide strong evidence of a positive association between variety of imported inputs used by a firm and the range of destinations it exports to. The results are robust across all the measures of input complementarity. Given concerns regarding endogeneity of imported input use, the reductions in tariffs under the South Africa – European Union Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA) is used to instrument firm use of imported intermediate inputs. Using the Two-stage Residual Inclusion approach, the results confirm the productivity-enhancing effects of the input complementarity hypothesis on firm export destination diversification. These results, hence, suggest that firms stand to benefit from the productivity-enhancing effects of imported intermediate inputs which can boost their export destination diversification efforts.

The phenomenon of migration is a highly debated topic in international politics in recent years, rising in importance on the global agenda. This can be seen in the securitization of migration policies of the EU, who has sought to restrict migration and sharpen border controls since mid-70s. In this process Turkey is of vital importance, considered one of the main bridges for transit migration into the EU. Thus, the securitization of migration in the EU has been influencing the Turkish migration management. The developing research on securitization of migration draws the attention to how migration is administered/framed as a security issue. However, these works put the focus exclusively on the EU and pay little attention to how the securitization in the EU restructures third countries' migration policies. This thesis intends to fill this gap in literature and question whether migration is securitized or not in Turkey through exploring the Turkey's compliance with the EU migration policies in the context of securitization, and programs and discourses of political parties on migration. Because of its strategic geopolitical position (e.g. being one of the most important transit countries for irregular migrants and asylum seekers into Europe) and in relation to its candidacy status, Turkey provides a very suitable framework in order to depict how the EU expands the securitization process into third countries and how candidate countries (are obliged to) follow the EU's requirements and thereby replicating the same securitization process in their migration policies. In the thesis, 'securitization theory' of the Copenhagen School given that it has become a reference point in the literature on migration issue and the analytical framework of 'Europeanization' used to assess whether and how EU's securitized policies led to change in Turkey's migration policy. ; TABLE OF CONTENTS KABUL VE ONAY………………………………………………………………………….i BİLDİRİM………………………………………………………………………….….ii YAYIMLAMA VE FİKRİ MÜLKİYET HAKLARI BEYANI………………….……….iii ETİK BEYAN……………………………………………………………………….……….iv DEDICATION……………………………………………………………….……………….v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS……………………………………………………….……….vi ABSTRACT………………………………………………………….…………………….vii ÖZET………………………………………………………………………….……………viii TABLE OF CONTENTS…………………………………………………….…………….ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS…………………………………………………………….xii INTRODUCTION….…………………………………….………………………….….1 CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK………………………………………….5 1.1. Introduction………………………………………………………………………5 1.2. Copenhagen School and Securitization Theory…………………………….5 1.3. Securitization of Migration………………………………………………….….9 1.3.1. Internal Security……………………………………………………….12 1.3.2. Cultural Identity…………………………………………………….15 1.3.3. Welfare State………………………………………………………….18 1.3.4. Social Securitization……………………………………………………21 CHAPTER 2: EU MIGRATION POLICY AND SECURITIZATION…………………23 2.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………….23 2.2. Establishment of the EU Common Migration Policy…………………………23 2.2.1. From the Maastricht Treaty to the Amsterdam Treaty: Transferring Migration Policy-Making to the Supranational Level…………………….…25 2.2.2. 1999-2004: First Multi-Annual Programme……………………………30 x 2.2.3. 2004-2009: Comprehensive Approach to Migration………………….33 2.2.4. 2010-2015: Desecuritization Tendency with the Stockholm Programme…………………………………………………………….…….37 2.2.5. Innovations of the Lisbon Treaty………………………………………43 2.3. Migration-Security Nexus in the EU…………………………………….….44 2.3.1. Perceptions and Concerns about Migration……………………………46 2.3.2. Securitization Discourse of the EU Countries on Migration………….47 2.3.3. Migration Perspectives of EU Institutions as Securitizing Actors: Different Approaches…………………………………………….………….51 2.3.4. Issue Areas of Securitization.………………………………………….55 2.3.4.1. Fight against Illegal Migration………………….……………56 2.3.4.2. Border Controls………………………………………………57 CHAPTER 3: TURKEY'S COMPLIANCE WITH THE EU MIGRATION POLICIES IN THE CONTEXT OF SECURITIZATION……………………………………………59 3.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………….59 3.2. Changing From An Emigrant Country to A Transit and Migration-Receiving Country………………………………………………………………………….….60 3.2.1. Turkey as An Emigrant Country……………………………………….60 3.2.2. Turkey as A Migration-Receiving Country………………………….…62 3.2.3. Turkey as A Transit Country………………………………………….64 3.3. Europeanization of Turkey's Migration Policy in Membership Process….66 3.3.1. Visa Policy: Retrenchment Process….…………………………………68 3.3.2. Integrated Border Management: Key Europeanization Area………….71 3.3.3. Tackling Irregular Migration: Absorption Process………….………….73 3.3.4. Readmission Agreements and Visa Facilitation/Exemption as Europeanization Incentive ……………………………………………………74 3.3.4.1. Inertia Period in Europeanization: Credibility Problem of Conditionality…………………………………………………………75 3.3.4.2. Visa Facilitation/Exemption: Reconciliation Period…………76 xi 3.4. Securitization of Migration in Turkey…………………………………….…79 CONCLUSION………………………………………………………………………………86 BIBLIOGRAPHY……………………….…………………………………………………93 APPENDIX 1. Orijinallik Raporu………………………………………………….107 APPENDIX 2. Etik Kurul İzin Muafiyeti Formu…………….…………………….…109 ; Göç olgusu, son yıllarda uluslararası politikada oldukça tartışılan ve küresel gündemde giderek önemi artan bir konudur. Bu durum, özellikle 70'li yılların ortalarından itibaren göçü sınırlamaya ve sınır kontrollerini güçlendirmeye çalışan Avrupa Birliği'nin göç politikalarının güvenlikleştirilmesinde görülebilir. Bu süreçte Türkiye, Avrupa Birliği için transit göçün temel geçiş noktalarından biri olarak hayati önem taşımaktadır. Bu sebeple, göç konusunun Avrupa Birliği'nde güvenlikleştirilmesinin, Türkiye'nin göç yönetimi üzerinde de etkileri olmuştur. Göçün güvenlikleştirilmesi konusunda gelişmekte olan araştırmalar, göçün bir güvenlik meselesi olarak nasıl düzenlendiğine/yönetildiğine dikkat çekmektedir. Ancak bu çalışmalar, yalnızca Avrupa Birliği'ne odaklanıp AB'deki güvenlikleştirmenin üçüncü ülkelerin göç politikalarını nasıl yeniden yapılandırdığını göz ardı etmektedir. Bu tez, Türkiye'nin güvenlikleştirme bağlamında AB göç politikalarına uyumunu ve siyasi partilerin programlarını ve göç konusundaki söylemlerini inceleyerek Türkiye'de göçün güvenlikleştirilip güvenlikleştirilmediğini sorgulamayı ve literatürdeki bu boşluğu doldurmayı amaçlamaktadır. Stratejik jeopolitik konumu nedeniyle (örneğin, düzensiz göçmenler ve sığınmacıların Avrupa'ya girişi için en önemli transit ülkelerden biri olmak) ve adaylık statüsüyle ilişkili olarak Türkiye, AB'nin güvenlikleştirme sürecini üçüncü ülkelere doğru nasıl genişlettiğini ve aday ülkelerin AB'nin taleplerini yerine getirip kendi göç politikalarında aynı güvenlikleştirme sürecini nasıl uyguladıklarını (ya da uygulamak zorunda kaldıklarını) göstermesi açısından çok uygun bir çerçeve sunmaktadır. Bu tezde, AB'nin güvenlikleştirilmiş politikalarının Türkiye'nin göç politikası üzerinde bir değişime sebep olup olmadığı ve nasıl olduğu, literatürde göç konusunda bir referans noktası haline gelen Kopenhag Okulu'nun 'güvenlikleştirme teorisi' ile birlikte analitik çerçeve olarak 'Avrupalılaşma' kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir.

The object of research is the system of indirect taxation, in particular, the mechanisms of administration of indirect taxes. One of the most problematic places is the lack of efficiency of such taxes, affecting the volume of revenues to the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine.Statistical and economic methods are used to assess the fiscal value of indirect consumption taxes in the structure of budget revenues. The analytical method is used when considering the status of indirect taxes for the reporting period (2014–2018), which gave a complete picture of the amount of budget revenues. The main shortcomings of the system of taxation of indirect taxes are identified and substantiated, the most important of which are: reduction of the fiscal sufficiency of the value added tax (VAT) and the imperfection of the system of administration of indirect taxes. Based on the method of comparing the experience of various countries, the main ways of improving tax administration in Ukraine have been formed.As a research result, it is found that VAT is the main one in terms of budget formation. Its share reached the highest level in 2018 (75.1 %). This is due to the fact that since 2016, a 7 % rate on medicines has been introduced. The second in fiscal efficiency is the excise tax, which tended to increase from 22.9 % in 2014 to 24.3 % in 2017. The third indirect tax is the duty: its share in 2014 was 6.4 %, decreasing to 4.7 % in 2018Thanks to the research, it is established that the level of fulfillment of indirect taxes in Ukraine did not meet the planned indicators. This demonstrates the need to improve the functioning of the tax system. This result can be achieved by reducing the list of preferential VAT transactions and improving the customs legislation of Ukraine in accordance with international standards. The use of foreign experience in the regulation of Ukrainian indirect taxation will contribute to the stabilization of economic growth and the gradual integration of the state into the European community. ; Объектом исследования является система косвенного налогообложения, в частности механизмы администрирования косвенных налогов. Одним из самых проблемных мест является недостаточная эффективность таких налогов, что влияет на объемы поступлений в бюджет Украины.В ходе исследования использовались статистико-экономические методы для оценки фискального значения косвенных налогов на потребление в структуре доходов бюджета. Аналитический метод применялся при рассмотрении состояния косвенных налогов за отчетный период (2014–2018 гг.), что дало полное представление об объеме поступлений в бюджет. Выявлены и обоснованы основные недостатки системы налогообложения косвенных налогов, важнейшими из которых являются: снижение фискальной достаточности налога на добавленную стоимость (НДС) и несовершенство системы администрирования косвенных налогов. На основе метода сравнения опыта различных стран сформированы основные пути совершенствования администрирования налогов в Украине.В результате исследования установлено, что основным с точки зрения бюджетообразования был НДС. Наивысшего уровня его доля достигла в 2018 г. (75,1 %). Это связано с тем, что начиная с 2016 г. введена 7 % ставка на лекарственные средства. Вторым по фискальной эффективности является акцизный налог, который имел тенденцию к росту с 22,9 % в 2014 г. до 24,3 % в 2017 г. Третьим косвенным налогом является пошлина: его доля в 2014 г. составила 6,4 %, снизившись до 4,7 % в 2018 г.Благодаря проведенному исследованию установлено, что уровень выполнения поступлений косвенных налогов в Украине не отвечал плановым показателям. Это свидетельствует о необходимости совершенствования налоговой системы. Данный результат можно достичь за счет сокращения перечня льготных операций НДС и усовершенствования таможенного законодательства Украины в соответствии с международными стандартами. Использование зарубежного опыта в регулировании украинского косвенного налогообложения будет способствовать стабилизации экономического роста и постепенной интеграции государства в европейское сообщество. ; Об'єктом дослідження є система непрямого оподаткування, зокрема механізми адміністрування непрямих податків. Одним з найбільш проблемних місць є недостатня ефективність таких податків, що впливає на обсяги надходжень до Зведеного бюджету України.В ході дослідження використовувалися статистико-економічні методи для оцінки фіскального значення непрямих податків на споживання у структурі доходів бюджету. Аналітичний метод застосовувався при розгляді стану непрямих податків за звітний період (2014–2018 рр.), що дало повне уявлення про обсяг надходжень до бюджету. Виявлено та обґрунтовано основні недоліки системи оподаткування непрямих податків, найвагомішими з яких є: зниження фіскальної достатності податку на додану вартість (ПДВ) та недосконалість системи адміністрування непрямих податків. На основі методу порівняння досвіду різних країн сформовано основні шляхи удосконалення адміністрування податків в Україні.В результаті дослідження встановлено, що основним з позиції бюджетоутворення був ПДВ. Найвищого рівня його частка досягла у 2018 р. (75,1 %). Це пов'язано з тим, що починаючи з 2016 р. введено 7 % ставку на лікарські засоби. Другим за фіскальною ефективністю є акцизний податок, який мав тенденцію до зростання з 22,9 % у 2014 р. до 24,3 % у 2017 р. Третім непрямим податком є мито: його частка у 2014 р. становила 6,4 %, знизившись до 4,7 % у 2018 р.Завдяки проведеному дослідженню встановлено, що рівень виконання надходжень непрямих податків в Україні не відповідав плановим показникам. Це свідчить про необхідність вдосконалення функціонування податкової системи. Даний результат можна досягти за рахунок скорочення переліку пільгових операцій ПДВ та удосконалення митного законодавства України відповідно до міжнародних стандартів. Використання зарубіжного досвіду у регулюванні українського непрямого оподаткування сприятиме стабілізації економічного зростання та поступовій інтеграції держави в європейську спільноту.

Ukraine is on the way budget relationships reform realization, one of which tasks is adaptation of current legislation to EU legislation in order to create European conditions of development in country and in budget system particularly.Budget control is the type of state finance control, integrated and telic system of economic and legal measures of authorized control subjects, aimed on providing of eligibility and effectiveness of budget process parties while drafting, reviewing, adoption of budgets, fulfillment, amending, considering reports on budgets' fulfillment, which compose the budget system of Ukraine. From that point of view the title of Chapter 17 of Budget Code of Ukraine (hereinafter BCU) "Control on maintenance of budget legislation" means not the essence of state finance control but its aim. The powers of controlling subjects which are established by this chapter have mostly duplicative character while current Chapter 5 of BCU determines types of budget legislation violations and means of influence for such violations still contains inaccuracies and gaps in expression of legal norms concerning budget control.Lack of budget control principles implementation on the regulatory level causes commitment of budget violation. On Accounting Chamber reports while fulfilling the controlling measures concerning the effectiveness of budget funds usage for ensuring activities and performing powers of public authorities more than 23 million UAH have been identified as used with violation of the requirements of the current legislation, and almost 313 million UAH were used inefficiently According to the calculations, the state budget short received income of almost 0.6 million UAH and also 10.3 million UAH were transferred to budgets exceeding the established deadlines/ Thus, the system of budgetary control requires improvement by defining a modern concept of its organization and implementing appropriate amendments to the current legislation. With this aim the authors have studied international experience, which shows the necessity of integrating new contemporary concept of budgetary control, which should be oriented to preliminary and current budgetary control. ; Україна перебуває на шляху проведення реформи бюджетних відносин, одним із завдань якої є адаптація чинного законодавства до законодавства Європейського Союзу (ЄС) із метою створення європейських умов розвитку країни і бюджетної системи зокрема.Бюджетний контроль — це вид державного фінансового контролю, комплексна і цілеспрямована система економіко-правових заходів уповноважених суб'єктів контролю, спрямована на забезпечення законності та ефективності дій учасників бюджетного процесу під час складання, розгляду, затвердження бюджетів, виконання, внесення змін та ухвалення звітів про виконання бюджетів, що становлять бюджетну систему України. З цих позицій назва глави 17 БКУ «Контроль за дотриманням бюджетного законодавства» визначає не сутність державного фінансового контролю, а його мету. Повноваження суб'єктів контролю, які встановлюються цією главою, мають переважно дублюючий характер, а чинний розділ 5 БКУ, хоч і встановлює види порушень бюджетного законодавства і заходи впливу за ці порушення, містить неточності та пробіли у формулюванні правових норм щодо проведення бюджетного контролю.Нереалізованість на нормативному рівні принципів бюджетного контролю спричиняє вчинення бюджетних правопорушень. За звітами Рахункової палати під час проведення контрольних заходів щодо ефективності використання бюджетних коштів на забезпечення діяльності та виконання повноважень державними органами було виявлено понад 23 млн грн використаних із порушенням вимог чинного законодавства, і майже 313 млн грн — неефективно. За розрахунками, державним бюджетом недотримано надходжень на суму майже 0,6 млн грн і перераховано до бюджетів із перевищенням установлених термінів — 10,3 млн гривень. Отже, система бюджетного контролю потребує вдосконалення шляхом визначення сучасної концепції його організації і внесення відповідних змін у чинне законодавство. З цією метою було вивчено досвід закордонних країн, який свідчить про доцільність упровадження нової сучасної концепції бюджетного контролю, орієнтованої на попередній і поточний бюджетний контроль. ; Украина находится на пути проведения реформы бюджетных отношений, одной из задач которой является адаптация действующего законодательства к законодательству Европейского Cоюза (ЕС) с целью создания европейских условий развития страны и бюджетной системы в частности.Бюджетный контроль — это вид государственного финансового контроля, комплексная и целенаправленная система экономико-правовых мероприятий уполномоченных контролирующих субъектов, направленная на обеспечение законности и эффективности действий участников бюджетного процесса во время составления, рассмотрения, утверждения бюджетов, исполнения, изменения и принятия отчетов о исполнении бюджетов, составляющих бюджетную систему Украины. С этих позиций название главы 17 БКУ «Контроль за соблюдением бюджетного законодательства» определяет не сущность государственного финансового контроля, а его цель. Полномочия контролирующих субъектов, которые устанавливаются данной главой, имеют преимущественно дублирующий характер, а действующая глава 5 БКУ, хотя и устанавливает виды нарушений бюджетного законодательства и меры воздействия за эти нарушения, содержит неточности и пробелы в формулировке правовых норм о проведении бюджетного контроля.Нереализованность на нормативном уровне принципов бюджетного контроля влечет совершение бюджетных правонарушений. По отчетам Счетной палаты при проведении контрольных мероприятий по эффективности использования бюджетных средств на обеспечение деятельности и выполнение полномочий государственными органами было выявлено более 23 млн грн, использованных с нарушением требований действующего законодательства, и почти 313 млн грн — неэффективно. По расчетам, государственным бюджетом недополучено поступлений на сумму почти 0,6. млн грн и перечислено в бюджеты с превышением установленных сроков — 10,3 млн гривен. Итак, система бюджетного контроля требует усовершенствования путем определения современной концепции его организации и внесения соответствующих изменений в действующее законодательство. С этой целью изучен опыт зарубежных стран, который свидетельствует о целесообразности внедрения новой современной концепции бюджетного контроля, ориентированного на предыдущий и текущий бюджетный контроль.

The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the funders. Data for this research was provided by MEASURE Evaluation, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of USAID, the US Government, or MEASURE Evaluation. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with licence no. SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law-2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data. ; Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. ; Research reported in this publication was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the University of Melbourne, Public Health England, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, the National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health (award P30AG047845), and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health (award R01MH110163). ; Peer reviewed