Evidence illustrates that investment in infrastructure is essential to accelerate inclusive growth. Indeed, a number of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have begun to devote greater resources to large-scale public investment projects. Nevertheless, while massive projects can potentially generate large benefits there are considerable risks. Cost overruns, poor implementation quality, inadequate operational and maintenance capacity, and negative social or environmental impacts can severely undercut a project's anticipated social and economic returns. Moreover, projects, which are expensive to develop and maintain can impact on debt dynamics and in some cases macroeconomic stability. Yet, given the complex nature of such projects it is often difficult to ascertain whether it is worthwhile to proceed with a project and if so, how should it be financed and implemented. Historically, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been used to assess the prospective impacts of large public investment projects. However, such models are a complex and time-consuming process and are often too broad to precisely capture the localized impact of specific projects. This paper proposes a simple, but more user-friendly model. By inputting information on the project's construction, operation, and anticipated returns, the user is able to assess the project's net impact on the economy and weigh up the costs and benefits of different approaches. The model was developed in response to a request from the Nigerien authorities to assess the macroeconomic impact of Niger's Kandaji Dam project. It found that while costs would equal more than 10 percent of 2013 GDP during 2014-48, the expansion of domestic production spurred by increased demand during the construction phase will increase GDP by 0.25 percent above the baseline projection and boost fiscal revenues by an additional 0.45 percentage points of GDP.
Since the global economic and financial crisis of 2008, Serbia has struggled with a weak economy and a deteriorating fiscal position. Until 2008, fiscal deficits were moderate and public debt declined significantly. Since the start of the global economic and financial crisis in 2008, however, Serbia has struggled with the interlinked problems of minimal growth and unfavorable fiscal dynamics. As economic activity has stagnated, revenues have fallen and expenditures, particularly mandatory spending on pensions and wages, have remained high. At the same time, structural fiscal issues, such as continued state support to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and tax administration inefficiencies, have been a drag on growth. As a result of these pressures, general government fiscal deficits averaged 5.6 percent of GDP a year between 2009 and 2014. Reflecting the high fiscal deficits and poor economic growth, Serbia's public debt has more than doubled, from 34 percent of GDP in 2008 to 71 percent at yearend-2014. The objective of this report is therefore two-fold: (i) policy options and recommendations (beyond those built into the current program) that would help solidify the ongoing fiscal consolidation program and help achieve public debt sustainability over the medium term; and (ii) given near-term fiscal constraints, identify opportunities for enhancing the efficiency, quality, and equity of current public spending on health, education, and social protection over the medium term
FONDEN (Natural Disasters Fund), Mexico's fund for natural disasters, was established in the late 1990s as a mechanism to support the rapid rehabilitation of federal and state infrastructure affected by adverse natural events. FONDEN was first created as a budget line in the Federal expenditure budget of 1996, and became operational in 1999. Funds from FONDEN could be used for the rehabilitation and reconstruction of: 1) public infrastructure at the three levels of government (federal, state, and municipal); 2) low-income housing; and 3) certain components of the natural environment. FONDEN consists of two complementary budget accounts, the FONDEN program for reconstruction and FOPREDEN program for prevention, and their respective financial accounts. The FONDEN program for reconstruction is FONDEN's primary budget account. It channels resources from the federal expenditure budget to specific reconstruction programs. The FOPREDEN program for prevention supports disaster prevention by funding activities related to risk assessment, risk reduction, and capacity building on disaster prevention. The FONDEN system is continuously evolving to integrate lessons learned over the course of years of experience.
In this paper, the authors examine the political economy drivers of the variation in agricultural protection, both across countries and within countries over time. The paper starts by listing the key insights provided by both the theoretical and empirical literature on the political economy of trade policy formulation. The authors then set out a basic framework that allows us to put forth various testable hypotheses on the variation and evolution of agricultural protection. The authors find that both the political ideology of the government and the degree of income inequality are important determinants of agricultural protection. Thus, both the political-support-function approach as well as the median-voter approach can be used in explaining the variation in agricultural protection across countries and within countries over time. The results are consistent with the predictions of a model that assumes that labor is specialized and sector-specific in nature. Some aspects of protection also seem to be consistent with predictions of a lobbying model in that agricultural protection is negatively related to agricultural employment and positively related to agricultural productivity. Public finance aspects of protection also seem to be empirically important.
During the 1960s and 1970s most developing countries imposed anti-agricultural policies, while many high-income countries restricted agricultural imports and subsidized their farmers. Both sets of policies inhibited economic growth and poverty alleviation in developing countries, while doing little to assist small farmers in high-income countries. Since the 1980s, however, many developing countries began to reduce the anti-agricultural bias of sectoral policies, and from the early 1990s the European Union began to move away from price supports to more-direct forms of farm income payments. This paper summarizes a forthcoming book that seeks to explain this evolving pattern of distortions to incentives conceptually and econometrically by making use of new political economy theory and a new globally comprehensive and consistent set of estimates of the changing extent of annual distortions over the past half-century. The distortion estimates involve more than 70 products that cover around 70 percent of the value of agricultural output in each of 75 countries that together account for over 90 percent of the global economy, and they expose the contribution of the various policy instruments (both farm and non-farm) to the net distortion to farmer incentives. Such a widespread coverage of countries, products, years and policy instruments has allowed this collection of studies to test a wide range of hypotheses suggested by the new political economy literature, including the importance of institutions. As a set it sheds much new light on the underlying forces that have affected incentives facing farmers in the course of national and global economic and political development, and hence on how those distortions might change in the future - or be changed by concerted actions to offset political pressures from traditionally powerful vested interests.
The point of this paper is to emphasize the importance and role of leadership for African growth, development, and poverty reduction. It is also an attempt to project a more objective assessment of leadership issues during the first three to four decades of African independence. Agreeing on shared responsibilities for Africa's failures in its early years will enable all who want to take part in the continent's renewal to focus on the partnership that is now needed to close a sad chapter in Africa's history, and open a new one. The core elements of such a partnership have evolved in the last decade, and this paper argues passionately for the political will, in Africa and outside, for their realization.
Drivers, characteristics and barriers of beneficial and adapted response mechanisms to water-related risks in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) are at the centre of this PhD research. These subject matters owe their importance to a manifold range of factors. Water is at the fore as the most formative element for landscapes and societies in the VMD – not only in its function as a vital source of livelihood but also as a threatening natural hazard. Water-related hazards have changed and will continue to change amidst a vibrant socio-economic setting and a fundamentally changing climate. These looming threats and the ongoing changes require action if the prospering character of Vietnam's rice bowl is to be maintained. Long-term and short-term-oriented response mechanisms have thus aroused a great deal of interest in science, practice and in the public debate. Strategic assessments of the nature and values of risk-related measures have, however, rarely been addressed in the Mekong Delta context. This research has therefore brought evaluation of coping and adaptation in the context of water-related risks into focus. Quality judgements are at the centre of interest in the international community of evaluation research and practice. Within this community, evaluations commonly revolve around the identification of the most efficient strategy for a specific target group. Quality is, however, a measure of basic normative considerations on divergent implications and distinct values – aspects which cannot always be measured by a mere effectiveness assessment which judges "good" responses in seemingly absolute terms. A more comprehensive evaluation in combination with a profound understanding of the local context and individuals' decision-making processes is an essential prerequisite for identifying barriers to "good" adaptation and coping. This is, in turn, a vital requirement for promoting more sustainable development pathways for the Mekong Delta. This thesis therefore aims at a holistic assessment of "good" risk-related response mechanisms, an identification of more than just economic barriers to the successful implementation of these strategies, and an exploration of context-specific and actor-oriented ways of overcoming the barriers. The study consequently develops an innovative and adaptable evaluation framework which takes a multi-disciplinary perspective of risk-related strategies. This concept draws on three different schools of thought and combines them in an integrative approach. Firstly, it takes a social-ecological system perspective. In contrast to most of evaluation research and practice, this framework thereby explicitly addresses the risk context. It allows actors at various scales to be addressed and considers multiple dimensions. Vulnerability, as a concept arising from this line of thought, provides an expedient baseline to judge the relevance of taking action, grasp the complexity of strategy outcomes, and identify barriers emerging from the overall risk context. Secondly, the vulnerability concept is linked with an actor-oriented perspective derived from a socio-cognitive model of adaptation decision-making. This provides a, widely neglected, actor-oriented perspective to evaluation. It explains why decisions to adapt or cope are taken and involves a subjective and actor-specific evaluation component. Thirdly, the framework involves a more structured analysis of the actual adaptation/coping process along the lines of so-called "theories of change". It comprises the assessment of strategy implementation, outcomes and impacts on the vulnerability of different groups and can therefore facilitate outcome- and process-oriented evaluations. Such a multi-faceted analysis entails quite a number of methodological challenges such as empirically unfolding implicit preference structures, revealing underlying interconnectivities across scales, and facing difficulties specific to doing field research in Vietnam. A mixed-methods paradigm was used to address many of these challenges. A deliberately chosen set of methods in combination with a conscientious and flexible process created thereby the foundation for a more encompassing empirical assessment of risk-related strategies in the VMD. The data demonstrate that the risk context was diverse and varied, most notably with regard to the geographic location of the production area and the agro-economic indicators. Rice producers were the least exposed group, but experienced the largest production losses. This was mainly due to the fact that the farmers raised their susceptibility significantly by introducing winter-spring rice in 2011. In addition, the vulnerability of rice farmers was reinforced by low risk-specific capacities to cope and adapt. Aquaculture and sugarcane producers were more experienced in dealing with water-related hazards and/or produced less susceptible commodities. Nevertheless, the hydrological and geophysical characteristics as well as the location with regard to the hydraulic infrastructure made these farmers more exposed to water-related hazards than rice producers. The analysis also shows that these vulnerability patterns have and will most likely gather momentum as the sea level rises and socio-political changes lead to agricultural modernisation and rural industrialisation. How far and why the past and the future risk context induces "good" coping and adaptation actions depended, however, not only on the actual but also on the individually perceived risks. A social-psychology perspective motivated and guided by the social-ecological vulnerability concept indicates why intentions to act were formed and how different actors evaluated the quality of strategy options. The analysis of risk perception shows, for instance, that the perceived threats (i.e. hazard exposure and susceptibility) could differ substantially from the revealed threats. This became most apparent in the example of the individuals' appraisal of salinity threats. Rice producers perceived a low hazard exposure in a year of high salinity values and also seemed to have misjudged their susceptibility. This was a major reason for their producing winter-spring rice in the season with the highest salinity exposure, i.e. an action which increased the susceptibility substantially. The perceived capacity of response and the subjective quality judgement of the acknowledged adaptation and coping options were also of central importance for forming an intention to act. The empirical data suggest that households had a clear preference for protective infrastructural measures, despite the subjectively perceived high costs and low income effects. This seemed to be due to the positively judged long-term effects. Corresponding to this finding, negative long-term effects were a major factor restraining the application of many strategies, most notably taking children out of school, selling assets and buying on credit. Income effects were, thus, of less importance to people than expected from the weighting of quality criteria in group discussions. Migration was, for example, rarely preferred over other strategies although it was perceived to have the most positive income effect of all strategies (in addition to the judgement that it is easily implementable and comes at a comparatively low cost). This is only one of many examples which show that subjective evaluations cannot always be explained with common evaluation criteria, are often context-specific and represent in many cases more of an intuition than a structured quality judgement. Still, structured and "objectivity"-based approaches from evaluation research are essential elements in a more holistic judgement and analysis of risk-related response mechanisms and were therefore taken into consideration. They describe the revealed characteristics of the strategies, indicate their implications for the risk context, and provide a valid basis of comparison to the subjective evaluations. A theory-of-change-led assessment of the most common household strategies shows that strategies which induced a change in the exposure of the household were rarely applied in the context of flood and salinity risks. Households hardly ever sold exposed land although buyers were easily found and land prices were comparatively high. Moreover, strategies which caused a susceptibility reduction played only a minor role. Susceptibility-reducing strategies, such as the construction and maintenance of dikes and a change of crops, were either rarely put into practice or had merely a short-term impact. Most of the measures were intended to strengthen the coping and adaptive capacity. Raising the short-term availability of financial capital by buying on credit or taking a loan were the most common measures. However, these strategies often reduced the capacity of response in the long-term. Measures which were intended to strengthen the stock of capital endowment, in contrast, came at a high cost in the short-run but had positive effects on the capacity of response in the long-run. At the government level, the responsibilities with regard to flood- and salinity-related risk management were allocated hierarchically based on the centrally planned and highly technocratic Vietnamese state system. Protective and productive infrastructural measures were the most influential strategies from governmental side. The strong preference for the construction and management of dikes and sluice gates was largely based on their role in protecting a large number of people in the areas inside the dike. Nevertheless, these infrastructure-related measures had detrimental effects such as an increased flood risk outside the dike and strengthened the motivation to apply susceptibility-increasing strategies inside the dike (growing winter-spring rice, in particular). These aspects turn the construction and management of protective infrastructure into the most controversially judged measures in the research area. Susceptibility reduction seemed to play a merely minor role. Only the regular dredging of a canal had a substantial impact on the vulnerability of a large share of the population. The majority of strategies were applied in order to strengthen the capacity of response. The short-term oriented strategies, i.e. compensation payments and flood and salinity warnings, seemed to have had only a short-term effect, if any, on the capacity to cope. Agricultural training and public loan schemes were, in contrast, more common, had a longer-term effect, and were more positively judged. Overall, analyses of strategies along the lines of theories of change have been shown to facilitate a better understanding of the quality of certain strategies. In an integrative analysis with the previously outlined risk context and decision-making processes, this evaluation perspective provides innovative findings about evaluations of and barriers to "good" coping and adaptation at a region-specific, methodological and conceptual level. The analysis of the risk context enabled an identification of many context-specific barriers and recommendations for action. The data, for instance, show that several of the geo-physical and ecological limits may not be limits in "real" terms - at least not when they are taken up at higher-level arenas. Without mitigation action on a global level, sea level rise may turn most other barriers into limits and make adaptation on site impossible. Further geo-physical and ecological characteristics constitute barriers which can be overcome by "better" infrastructural planning and coordinated international and inter-regional water-resource management. Most of the economic barriers have been shown to emerge from agricultural modernisation and rural industrialisation. De-industrialised and diversified forms of income generation could clear many of these barriers and provide a basis for more sustainable livelihoods. Cognitive and knowledge-related obstacles were identified at the level of individuals' decision-making processes. Knowledge barriers arose mainly at the level of non-agricultural employment. A more adapted vocational education system could help seize the opportunities that rural industrialisation policies provide. Knowledge barriers to the implementation of "good" risk-specific strategies could be addressed by a more explicit inclusion of salinity-and flood-specific content in agricultural training. A participatory approach would, in this context, be conducive in strengthening the trust in expert know-how, involve local knowledge, develop context-specific solutions, and convey an understanding for diverging interests and implications. Many of the cognitive barriers emerged from too strong a reliance on the actions of other actors, most notably on governmental measures. In addition, cognitive processes converted some barriers into perceived limits. Too strong a hierarchical thinking and an often subordinate mentality made people believe that an order from the respective higher level is inviolable. It has thus been shown to be of particular importance to raise awareness with regard to the fallibility of infrastructural measures in addition to a reinforcement of the household's belief in its own capability to implement "good" response mechanisms. At the institutional level, the multifaceted approach revealed that a lack of official demand for evaluations, an unclear structure of responsibilities, vaguely defined criteria and insufficient control mechanisms inhibited an expedient evaluation practice. These barriers (as well as several other obstacles identified before) often relate to general institutional barriers such as prevailing elitism, a lack of participatory decision-making and the technocratic nature of the system. Many barriers thus have to be defeated at the level of national regulations and can be supported by technical cooperation from international partners. At the local level, stronger cooperation between NGOs, development organisations, researchers and the local government would provide a pertinent basis for more evaluation-based data exchanges and appraisals. Besides this lack of evaluation activities, the analysis has revealed methodological shortcomings in existing evaluation practice. It has been shown that there is a need to include more than just economic criteria, improve the competences of local evaluators in participatory and qualitative methods, specify and enforce the evaluation guidelines, and increase local participation in evaluation practice. In conclusion, the concerted analysis of risks and risk-related strategies on multiple levels and a comparison of revealed and perceived realities have been shown to put the often assumed "objective" vulnerability into perspective. At the same time, a vulnerability-centred lens in a socio-cognitive decision-making model has added agency to the often one-sided reflection of risk perception as a mere function of the individuals' appraisal of probability and magnitude of an event. It has also been demonstrated that the identification of "good" strategies is highly complex and specific to the evaluation method, the stakeholder, the spatial-scale and the time-scale. Many drivers, opportunities and barriers would therefore have remained uncovered if the conceptual framework had not included multiple scales and actor groups; single data sets had suggested a less reliable evaluation result; and an analysis based on a single evaluation approach would have depicted a merely one-sided judgement of a strategy's quality. In the end, this thesis has not presented the "ultimate" strategy in response to water-related risks in rural areas of the Mekong Delta. On the contrary, it is argued that such absolute judgments are neither achievable nor desirable. The suggested context-specific and actor-oriented evaluation approach, instead, has acknowledged and grasped the distinct nature and diverse values of risk-related strategies and has thereby made a contribution to promoting flexible and adapted measures for more sustainable development pathways for the Vietnamese Mekong Delta.
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.-- CIMBA et al. ; BRCA1-associated breast and ovarian cancer risks can be modified by common genetic variants. To identify further cancer risk-modifying loci, we performed a multi-stage GWAS of 11,705 BRCA1 carriers (of whom 5,920 were diagnosed with breast and 1,839 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer), with a further replication in an additional sample of 2,646 BRCA1 carriers. We identified a novel breast cancer risk modifier locus at 1q32 for BRCA1 carriers (rs2290854, P = 2.7 × 10(-8), HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.20). In addition, we identified two novel ovarian cancer risk modifier loci: 17q21.31 (rs17631303, P = 1.4 × 10(-8), HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38) and 4q32.3 (rs4691139, P = 3.4 × 10(-8), HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38). The 4q32.3 locus was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in the general population or BRCA2 carriers, suggesting a BRCA1-specific association. The 17q21.31 locus was also associated with ovarian cancer risk in 8,211 BRCA2 carriers (P = 2×10(-4)). These loci may lead to an improved understanding of the etiology of breast and ovarian tumors in BRCA1 carriers. Based on the joint distribution of the known BRCA1 breast cancer risk-modifying loci, we estimated that the breast cancer lifetime risks for the 5% of BRCA1 carriers at lowest risk are 28%-50% compared to 81%-100% for the 5% at highest risk. Similarly, based on the known ovarian cancer risk-modifying loci, the 5% of BRCA1 carriers at lowest risk have an estimated lifetime risk of developing ovarian cancer of 28% or lower, whereas the 5% at highest risk will have a risk of 63% or higher. Such differences in risk may have important implications for risk prediction and clinical management for BRCA1 carriers. ; The study was supported by NIH grant CA128978, an NCI Specialized Program of Research Excellence (SPORE) in Breast Cancer (CA116201), a U.S. Department of Defense Ovarian Cancer Idea award (W81XWH-10-1-0341), grants from the Breast Cancer Research Foundation and the Komen Foundation for the Cure; Cancer Research UK grants C12292/A11174 and C1287/A10118; the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme grant agreement 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175). Breast Cancer Family Registry Studies (BCFR): supported by the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health under RFA # CA-06-503 and through cooperative agreements with members of the Breast Cancer Family Registry (BCFR) and Principal Investigators, including Cancer Care Ontario (U01 CA69467), Cancer Prevention Institute of California (U01 CA69417), Columbia University (U01 CA69398), Fox Chase Cancer Center (U01 CA69631), Huntsman Cancer Institute (U01 CA69446), and University of Melbourne (U01 CA69638). The Australian BCFR was also supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, the New South Wales Cancer Council, the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (Australia), and the Victorian Breast Cancer Research Consortium. Melissa C. Southey is a NHMRC Senior Research Fellow and a Victorian Breast Cancer Research Consortium Group Leader. Carriers at FCCC were also identified with support from National Institutes of Health grants P01 CA16094 and R01 CA22435. The New York BCFR was also supported by National Institutes of Health grants P30 CA13696 and P30 ES009089. The Utah BCFR was also supported by the National Center for Research Resources and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, NIH grant UL1 RR025764, and by Award Number P30 CA042014 from the National Cancer Institute. Baltic Familial Breast Ovarian Cancer Consortium (BFBOCC): BFBOCC is partly supported by Lithuania (BFBOCC-LT), Research Council of Lithuania grant LIG-19/2010, and Hereditary Cancer Association (Paveldimo vėžio asociacija). ; Latvia (BFBOCC-LV) is partly supported by LSC grant 10.0010.08 and in part by a grant from the ESF Nr.2009/0220/1DP/1.1.1.2.0/09/APIA/VIAA/016.BRCA-gene mutations and breast cancer in South African women (BMBSA): BMBSA was supported by grants from the Cancer Association of South Africa (CANSA) to Elizabeth J. van Rensburg. Beckman Research Institute of the City of Hope (BRICOH): Susan L. Neuhausen was partially supported by the Morris and Horowitz Families Endowed Professorship. BRICOH was supported by NIH R01CA74415 and NIH P30 CA033752. Copenhagen Breast Cancer Study (CBCS): The CBCS study was supported by the NEYE Foundation. Spanish National Cancer Centre (CNIO): This work was partially supported by Spanish Association against Cancer (AECC08), RTICC 06/0020/1060, FISPI08/1120, Mutua Madrileña Foundation (FMMA) and SAF2010-20493. City of Hope Cancer Center (COH): The City of Hope Clinical Cancer Genetics Community Research Network is supported by Award Number RC4A153828 (PI: Jeffrey N. Weitzel) from the National Cancer Institute and the Office of the Director, National Institutes of Health. CONsorzio Studi ITaliani sui Tumori Ereditari Alla Mammella (CONSIT TEAM): CONSIT TEAM was funded by grants from Fondazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (Special Project "Hereditary tumors"), Italian Association for Cancer Research (AIRC, IG 8713), Italian Minitry of Health (Extraordinary National Cancer Program 2006, "Alleanza contro il Cancro" and "Progetto Tumori Femminili), Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (Prin 2008) Centro di Ascolto Donne Operate al Seno (CAOS) association and by funds from Italian citizens who allocated the 5×1000 share of their tax payment in support of the Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, according to Italian laws (INT-Institutional strategic projects '5×1000'). German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ): The DKFZ study was supported by the DKFZ. The Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Research Group Netherlands (HEBON): HEBON is supported by the Dutch Cancer Society grants NKI1998-1854, NKI2004-3088, NKI2007-3756, the NWO grant 91109024, the Pink Ribbon grant 110005, and the BBMRI grant CP46/NWO. ; Epidemiological study of BRCA1 & BRCA2 mutation carriers (EMBRACE): EMBRACE is supported by Cancer Research UK Grants C1287/A10118 and C1287/A11990. D. Gareth Evans and Fiona Lalloo are supported by an NIHR grant to the Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester. The Investigators at The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust are supported by an NIHR grant to the Biomedical Research Centre at The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust. Rosalind A. Eeles and Elizabeth Bancroft are supported by Cancer Research UK Grant C5047/A8385. Fox Chase Cancer Canter (FCCC): The authors acknowledge support from The University of Kansas Cancer Center and the Kansas Bioscience Authority Eminent Scholar Program. Andrew K. Godwin was funded by 5U01CA113916, R01CA140323, and by the Chancellors Distinguished Chair in Biomedical Sciences Professorship. German Consortium of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (GC-HBOC): The German Consortium of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (GC-HBOC) is supported by the German Cancer Aid (grant no 109076, Rita K. Schmutzler) and by the Center for Molecular Medicine Cologne (CMMC). Genetic Modifiers of cancer risk in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers (GEMO): The GEMO study was supported by the Ligue National Contre le Cancer; the Association "Le cancer du sein, parlons-en!" Award and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research for the "CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer" program. Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG): This study was supported by National Cancer Institute grants to the Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG) Administrative Office and Tissue Bank (CA 27469), Statistical and Data Center (CA 37517), and GOG's Cancer Prevention and Control Committtee (CA 101165). Drs. Mark H. Greene and Phuong L. Mai were supported by funding from the Intramural Research Program, NCI, NIH. Hospital Clinico San Carlos (HCSC): HCSC was supported by RETICC 06/0020/0021, FIS research grant 09/00859, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity, and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). ; Helsinki Breast Cancer Study (HEBCS): The HEBCS was financially supported by the Helsinki University Central Hospital Research Fund, Academy of Finland (132473), the Finnish Cancer Society, the Nordic Cancer Union, and the Sigrid Juselius Foundation. Study of Genetic Mutations in Breast and Ovarian Cancer patients in Hong Kong and Asia (HRBCP): HRBCP is supported by The Hong Kong Hereditary Breast Cancer Family Registry and the Dr. Ellen Li Charitable Foundation, Hong Kong. Molecular Genetic Studies of Breast and Ovarian Cancer in Hungary (HUNBOCS): HUNBOCS was supported by Hungarian Research Grant KTIA-OTKA CK-80745 and the Norwegian EEA Financial Mechanism HU0115/NA/2008-3/ÖP-9. Institut Català d'Oncologia (ICO): The ICO study was supported by the Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer, Spanish Health Research Foundation, Ramón Areces Foundation, Carlos III Health Institute, Catalan Health Institute, and Autonomous Government of Catalonia and contract grant numbers: ISCIIIRETIC RD06/0020/1051, PI09/02483, PI10/01422, PI10/00748, 2009SGR290, and 2009SGR283. International Hereditary Cancer Centre (IHCC): Supported by the Polish Foundation of Science. Katarzyna Jaworska is a fellow of International PhD program, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Warsaw Medical University. Iceland Landspitali–University Hospital (ILUH): The ILUH group was supported by the Icelandic Association "Walking for Breast Cancer Research" and by the Landspitali University Hospital Research Fund. INterdisciplinary HEalth Research Internal Team BReast CAncer susceptibility (INHERIT): INHERIT work was supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research for the "CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer" program, the Canadian Breast Cancer Research Alliance grant 019511 and the Ministry of Economic Development, Innovation and Export Trade grant PSR-SIIRI-701. Jacques Simard is Chairholder of the Canada Research Chair in Oncogenetics. ; Istituto Oncologico Veneto (IOVHBOCS): The IOVHBOCS study was supported by Ministero dell'Istruzione, dell'Università e della Ricerca and Ministero della Salute ("Progetto Tumori Femminili" and RFPS 2006-5-341353,ACC2/R6.9"). Kathleen Cuningham Consortium for Research into Familial Breast Cancer (kConFab): kConFab is supported by grants from the National Breast Cancer Foundation and the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and by the Queensland Cancer Fund; the Cancer Councils of New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, and South Australia; and the Cancer Foundation of Western Australia. Amanda B. Spurdle is an NHMRC Senior Research Fellow. The Clinical Follow Up Study was funded from 2001–2009 by NHMRC and currently by the National Breast Cancer Foundation and Cancer Australia #628333. Mayo Clinic (MAYO): MAYO is supported by NIH grant CA128978, an NCI Specialized Program of Research Excellence (SPORE) in Breast Cancer (CA116201), a U.S. Department of Defence Ovarian Cancer Idea award (W81XWH-10-1-0341) and grants from the Breast Cancer Research Foundation and the Komen Foundation for the Cure. McGill University (MCGILL): The McGill Study was supported by Jewish General Hospital Weekend to End Breast Cancer, Quebec Ministry of Economic Development, Innovation, and Export Trade. Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC): The MSKCC study was supported by Breast Cancer Research Foundation, Niehaus Clinical Cancer Genetics Initiative, Andrew Sabin Family Foundation, and Lymphoma Foundation. Modifier Study of Quantitative Effects on Disease (MODSQUAD): MODSQUAD was supported by the European Regional Development Fund and the State Budget of the Czech Republic (RECAMO, CZ.1.05/2.1.00/03.0101). Women's College Research Institute, Toronto (NAROD): NAROD was supported by NIH grant: 1R01 CA149429-01. National Cancer Institute (NCI): Drs. Mark H. Greene and Phuong L. Mai were supported by the Intramural Research Program of the US National Cancer Institute, NIH, and by support services contracts NO2-CP-11019-50 and N02-CP-65504 with Westat, Rockville, MD. National Israeli Cancer Control Center (NICCC): NICCC is supported by Clalit Health Services in Israel. Some of its activities are supported by the Israel Cancer Association and the Breast Cancer Research Foundation (BCRF), NY. N. N. Petrov Institute of Oncology (NNPIO): The NNPIO study has been supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants 11-04-00227, 12-04-00928, and 12-04-01490), the Federal Agency for Science and Innovations, Russia (contract 02.740.11.0780), and through a Royal Society International Joint grant (JP090615). The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center (OSU-CCG): OSUCCG is supported by the Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center. ; South East Asian Breast Cancer Association Study (SEABASS): SEABASS is supported by the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, Ministry of Higher Education (UM.C/HlR/MOHE/06) and Cancer Research Initiatives Foundation. Sheba Medical Centre (SMC): The SMC study was partially funded through a grant by the Israel Cancer Association and the funding for the Israeli Inherited Breast Cancer Consortium. Swedish Breast Cancer Study (SWE-BRCA): SWE-BRCA collaborators are supported by the Swedish Cancer Society. The University of Chicago Center for Clinical Cancer Genetics and Global Health (UCHICAGO): UCHICAGO is supported by grants from the US National Cancer Institute (NIH/NCI) and by the Ralph and Marion Falk Medical Research Trust, the Entertainment Industry Fund National Women's Cancer Research Alliance, and the Breast Cancer Research Foundation. University of California Los Angeles (UCLA): The UCLA study was supported by the Jonsson Comprehensive Cancer Center Foundation and the Breast Cancer Research Foundation. University of California San Francisco (UCSF): The UCSF study was supported by the UCSF Cancer Risk Program and the Helen Diller Family Comprehensive Cancer Center. United Kingdom Familial Ovarian Cancer Registries (UKFOCR): UKFOCR was supported by a project grant from CRUK to Paul Pharoah. University of Pennsylvania (UPENN): The UPENN study was supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) (R01-CA102776 and R01-CA083855), Breast Cancer Research Foundation, Rooney Family Foundation, Susan G. Komen Foundation for the Cure, and the Macdonald Family Foundation. Victorian Familial Cancer Trials Group (VFCTG): The VFCTG study was supported by the Victorian Cancer Agency, Cancer Australia, and National Breast Cancer Foundation. Women's Cancer Research Initiative (WCRI): The WCRI at the Samuel Oschin Comprehensive Cancer Institute, Cedars Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, is funded by the American Cancer Society Early Detection Professorship (SIOP-06-258-01-COUN). ; Peer Reviewed
The African agricultural sector has been neglected by development aid during the last fifty years. It has not undertaken a green revolution, as it happened in Asia. The continent has a great potential for agricultural production but yields and technology adoption are still very low. Moreover many recent threats to food security represent a challenge for future development in Africa. Demographic growth, increase in commodity prices and price volatility, land use pressure and climate change are probably the most latent threats. In such context, it is necessary to develop new patterns of development for African agriculture. Those patterns should draw the consequences from past policies, which either relied on large investments and in favouring a development of the same nature that the one observed in rich or emerging economies. It seems that improving institutions and the environment to foster the evolution of African agriculture would be more adapted than previous strategies that consist in applying the same methods employed in the past. Food security can be achieved by improving rural households' income. Those households is composed by a vast majority of smallholders, for which agricultural production is a major resource for living. The necessary transition for stimulating production in remote areas seem to rely on fostering technology adoption and improve incentives for investments that would increase the productivity or the value added to smallholder production. We study two major organisational changes that are the reforms of cotton sector market structure in sub-Saharan Africa and index-based insurances. In both cases the point is to look at the potential of every organisation choice, reduce vulnerability and its effect, in particular the poverty trap phenomenon. The final objective is improve long run yield by foster investments, in spite of the risks borne by farmers and the tied budget constraint, consequence of the absence of financial (especially credit) markets. The cotton sectors inherited from the institutions of the colonial era, characterised by the concentration in cotton purchasing activities, often made by a parastatal at the national level. Those institutions contributed to generalise cotton production and to the diffusion of new technologies and agricultural practices, especially thanks to the distribution of quality inputs on credit, with future cotton production as collateral. Cotton production and technology adoption were also probably driven by the existence of a minimum guaranteed price set at the beginning of the cultivation season, the investments in infrastructures, research and extension services at the same national level. However, the concentration of the purchasing of cotton also poses some problems, reducing the bargaining power of producers and the proximity of the cotton. We look at the productivity response to cotton sector reforms that took place since 1985 in sub-Saharan Africa using the data from 16 cotton producers on the 1961-2008 period. We compare the performance of those countries with regard to their institutional choices. We first put into perspective the role of pre-reform investments before showing that if reforms may increase yields it could be to the cost of a shrinking area cultivated with cotton. In a second part we study the potential use of meteorological indices to smooth consumption over time and space. Such insurance policies are able to allow quick indemnifications for farmers enduring meteorological shocks. The realisation of the index is independent from the action of the principal and the agent, limiting moral hazard issues and the need for costly damage assessment arising from information asymmetry in traditional insurance contracts. Those insurance however suffer from the limited correlation between the index and the observed yield. We will study the potential of meteorological indices to limit the risk growers face in millet cultivation in Niger and cotton cultivation in Cameroon. We study, in particular, the index choice, the calibration of insurance contract parameters, the necessity of observing the sowing date and the level of basis risk. The large spatial variability of rainfall over the sudano-sahelian zone is a good reason to use such insurance, it however also explain the high level of basis risk of a given index that is observed using a network of rain gauges, itself installed at a cost. We discuss in both cases the relative importance of basis risk and the potential of such insurance to pool yield, and compare them to other risks, such as intra-village yield and price shocks. ; Ce travail de thèse présente l'analyse de deux changements organisationnels dans le cas du secteur agricole en Afrique Subsaharienne. Ce travail est composé de cinq chapitres qui peuvent être regroupés en deux parties distinctes. Dans le premier cas il s'agit de la comparaison et de l'estimation de l'impact de réformes institutionnelles au sein du secteur coton en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Dans le second, de l'étude ex ante d'une innovation organisationnelle récente: les assurances fondées sur des indices météorologiques au sein de la zone soudano-sahélienne. Dans les deux cas ces analyses tentent de répondre à un besoin d'orientation les politiques visant au développement du secteur agricole en Afrique de l'Ouest et plus particulièrement à la question de l'accès au marché du crédit et de l'assurance pour les producteurs, nécessaire pour dépasser le stade de l'agriculture de subsistance (de Janvry et Sadoulet, 2011). Dans le premier chapitre, je passe en revue les réformes des filières cotonnières qui ont eu lieu en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Je construis trois indices synthétiques de libéralisation: la présence de capitaux privés et le degré de concurrence entre égreneurs ainsi que la flexibilité des prix au cours de la campagne. Ceci nous permet de construire et de valider la base de données utilisée dans le second chapitre. Nous montrons d'abord que les deux vagues de réformes ont été très différentes. La première concerne les pays anglophones, dont le secteur cotonnier a été libéralisé entre 1985 et 1995. La seconde (après 1995) concerne les pays francophones d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre. Nous montrons que ces dernières reposent plus sur une régulation de la filière, conservant de nombreuses caractéristiques des filières intégrées issue de la colonisation, contrairement aux réformes de la première vague de libéralisation. Tout d'abord, la concurrence établie n'est pas réelle puisque l'on voit l'installation de monopsones territoriaux d'égreneurs: les pays étant, dans la plupart des cas, divisés en zones d'opération pour chacun d'eux. Ensuite, les prix d'achat du coton sont encore fixés au semis et garantis jusque la récolte, absorbant les variations intra-saisonnières du prix international. Finalement on observe une rémanence du secteur privé, bien que des parts des sociétés cotonnières soient cédées au privé. Dans un second chapitre nous étudions l'impact de ces réformes sur la performance du secteur du coton dans les 16 principaux producteurs d'Afriques Sub-Saharienne en 2008. Nous utilisons pour cela des données de panel, issu de la FAO, appariées sur la période 1961-2008 à des données météorologiques mensuelles en grille (CRU TS3.1) considérées sur la période de croissance du coton, ce pour chaque année et chaque pays. Chaque cellule de la grille étant pondérée par la densité des surfaces cultivées en coton sur l'ensemble des territoires nationaux. Nous comparons les pays n'ayant pas réformé aux pays ayant régulé, installé une concurrence faible ou encore une concurrence forte. Nous montrons que les réformes menant à une régulation et à une forte concurrence ont un impact significatif sur les surfaces cultivées et les rendements. Ces résultats semblent validés par une estimation du potentiel biais de sélection, source limité d'endogéneité et robustes aux deux spécifications choisies: la première exploitant la dimension dynamique du panel (méthode des moments généralisés, dite GMM) et la seconde étant une analyse en différence de différences (moindres carrés avec effets fixes). Nous montrons d'abord que les réformes tendent à augmenter les rendements, hormis les réformes menant vers un faible niveau de concurrence, pour lequel l'effet des réformes n'est pas significatif. Les pays ayant régulé leur secteur cotonniers ont vu une croissance des surfaces semées en coton après les réformes. Les réformes menant à une forte compétition ont en revanche eu un impact négatif sur les surfaces cultivées, ce qui tend à valider l'approche institutionnelle qui suppose que le crédit aux intrants au semis, sans autre garantie que le coton récolté en fin de campagne, nécessite une relation de coordination qui est mise à mal par la concurrence. De même, comme le montre la littérature sur le sujet (Brambilla et Porto, 2011), il est possible qu'un effet de sélection ait opéré dans ces secteurs les plus concurrentiels, menant à limiter le nombre de producteurs cultivant du coton, aux dépend des producteurs les moins productifs, n'ayant pas accès aux marchés du crédit et de l'assurance. Dans le troisième chapitre nous réalisons une revue de la littérature sur les assurances indi- cielles, recensant les expériences dans les pays en développement, les méthodes sous-jacentes et les questions de recherche qui en découlent. Nous étudions finalement dans les chapitre 4 et 5 le potentiel de telles assurances dans deux cas spécifiques: le mil au Sud-Ouest du Niger et le coton au Nord du Cameroun. Ces assurances constituent une alternative intéressante aux assurances agricoles traditionnelles, coûteuses en raison de l'asymétrie d'information qui les caractérisent et de la nécessité de constater les dommages effectifs. Dans les deux cas nous montrons d'abord qu'accroître la complexité des indices pour mieux appréhender l'impact de la pluviométrie sur les rendements ne semble pas nécessaire. Les résultats, robustes à la cross-validation, corrigeant l'effet de la sur-identification (over-fitting) montre en effets que les gains de l'assurance sont relativement limités, mais surtout qu'il ne sont pas accrus par l'utilisation d'indices plus sophistiqués. Nous montrons aussi, dans le cas du mil, que la prise en compte de la forte variation des rendements au sein du même village est significative et qu'elle joue un rôle important dans le cas d'une fonction utilité concave. Les parcelles cultivées étant situées à moins de 3 kilomètres de la station météorologique, ce risque de base est bien dû à la présence de chocs idiosyncratiques (maladies, ravageurs.) ou à l'hétérogénéité des agents et des parcelles et non à un choc météorologique. Ce résultat tend à montrer que l'existence de ce risque de base résiduel, peut limiter la demande pour ce type d'assurance, en présence d'aversion pour le risque. Il s'inscrit dans la suite des travaux de Clarke (2011) qui montre que l'absence d'indemnisation, en cas de mauvais rendements, peut rendre l'assurance désavantageuse du fait du paiement de la prime (ce que j'appelle une erreur de type I). Ces résultats doivent être interprétés à la lumière du faible intérêt des producteurs pour ce genre de produits observés dans les récentes, mais néanmoins nombreuses, études ex post. Finalement, toujours dans ce premier cas, l'utilisation de données sur des parcelles fertilisées permet de montrer que ces résultats ne sont pas radicalement modifiés par la prise en compte d'une potentielle intensification des cultures, rendant pourtant la culture de mil plus risquée, et donc l'assurance plus intéressante. Dans le second cas, le coton, nous utilisons d'abord une expérimentation de terrain mettant en œuvre des jeux de loteries (inspiré de Holt et Laury, 2002), pour estimer la distribution des paramètres d'aversion pour le risque des producteurs. Nous montrons d'abord que, dans ce cas, l'effet de l'imparfaite corrélation des rendements et de l'indice météorologique choisi sur le gain en équivalent certain des producteurs, est significatif. C'est en particulier le cas dans les zones les plus humides ou montrant un climat spécifique. Contrairement au cas du mil au Niger, assurer les producteurs de coton semble nécessiter l'observation de la date de semis, dont le simulation ne semble pas nécessaire ou inadéquate vu les contraintes institutionnelles du secteur (comme par exemple les retards de livraison de graines et d'intrants). Nous remarquons ensuite que l'échelle d'étude étant plus importante dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, l'assurance risque de mener à des péréquations non désirées, par exemple des zone les plus humides envers les zones plus arides. Finalement nous observons, dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, que le gain apporté par la stabilisation des rendements est similaire, voire inférieur, à celui apporté par la stabilisation intra-saisonnière des prix qui a lieu aujourd'hui dans la filière Camerounaise intégrée (la Sodecoton détenant le monopole d'achat du coton graine au Cameroun). En effet, en annonçant le prix de vente au moment du semis, la société offre implicitement aux producteurs une assurance contre les variations du prix international au cours de la campagne. J'ai donc montré certaines limites intrinsèques aux mécanismes d'assurance fondés sur des indices météorologiques, en dépit de l'appréhension de la forte variabilité spatiale qui caractérise le climat soudano-sahélien au sein duquel les deux terrains se situent. Nous disposons en effet, dans les deux cas, d'une densité de stations météorologiques unique dans la région permettant de limiter le risque de base spatial. Ces résultats ne prennent toutefois pas en compte les effets indirects de l'assurance qui, lorsqu'elle est offerte conjointement avec un crédit aux intrants, peut baisser le prix de ce dernier, en limitant la probabilité de défaut en cas de sécheresse. J'ai par ailleurs aussi montré l'importance de l'accès au crédit pour les producteurs de coton ainsi que l'intérêt de la couverture contre le risque de variation du prix international dans le cas des cultures de rentes.
The African agricultural sector has been neglected by development aid during the last fifty years. It has not undertaken a green revolution, as it happened in Asia. The continent has a great potential for agricultural production but yields and technology adoption are still very low. Moreover many recent threats to food security represent a challenge for future development in Africa. Demographic growth, increase in commodity prices and price volatility, land use pressure and climate change are probably the most latent threats. In such context, it is necessary to develop new patterns of development for African agriculture. Those patterns should draw the consequences from past policies, which either relied on large investments and in favouring a development of the same nature that the one observed in rich or emerging economies. It seems that improving institutions and the environment to foster the evolution of African agriculture would be more adapted than previous strategies that consist in applying the same methods employed in the past. Food security can be achieved by improving rural households' income. Those households is composed by a vast majority of smallholders, for which agricultural production is a major resource for living. The necessary transition for stimulating production in remote areas seem to rely on fostering technology adoption and improve incentives for investments that would increase the productivity or the value added to smallholder production. We study two major organisational changes that are the reforms of cotton sector market structure in sub-Saharan Africa and index-based insurances. In both cases the point is to look at the potential of every organisation choice, reduce vulnerability and its effect, in particular the poverty trap phenomenon. The final objective is improve long run yield by foster investments, in spite of the risks borne by farmers and the tied budget constraint, consequence of the absence of financial (especially credit) markets. The cotton sectors inherited from the institutions of the colonial era, characterised by the concentration in cotton purchasing activities, often made by a parastatal at the national level. Those institutions contributed to generalise cotton production and to the diffusion of new technologies and agricultural practices, especially thanks to the distribution of quality inputs on credit, with future cotton production as collateral. Cotton production and technology adoption were also probably driven by the existence of a minimum guaranteed price set at the beginning of the cultivation season, the investments in infrastructures, research and extension services at the same national level. However, the concentration of the purchasing of cotton also poses some problems, reducing the bargaining power of producers and the proximity of the cotton. We look at the productivity response to cotton sector reforms that took place since 1985 in sub-Saharan Africa using the data from 16 cotton producers on the 1961-2008 period. We compare the performance of those countries with regard to their institutional choices. We first put into perspective the role of pre-reform investments before showing that if reforms may increase yields it could be to the cost of a shrinking area cultivated with cotton. In a second part we study the potential use of meteorological indices to smooth consumption over time and space. Such insurance policies are able to allow quick indemnifications for farmers enduring meteorological shocks. The realisation of the index is independent from the action of the principal and the agent, limiting moral hazard issues and the need for costly damage assessment arising from information asymmetry in traditional insurance contracts. Those insurance however suffer from the limited correlation between the index and the observed yield. We will study the potential of meteorological indices to limit the risk growers face in millet cultivation in Niger and cotton cultivation in Cameroon. We study, in particular, the index choice, the calibration of insurance contract parameters, the necessity of observing the sowing date and the level of basis risk. The large spatial variability of rainfall over the sudano-sahelian zone is a good reason to use such insurance, it however also explain the high level of basis risk of a given index that is observed using a network of rain gauges, itself installed at a cost. We discuss in both cases the relative importance of basis risk and the potential of such insurance to pool yield, and compare them to other risks, such as intra-village yield and price shocks. ; Ce travail de thèse présente l'analyse de deux changements organisationnels dans le cas du secteur agricole en Afrique Subsaharienne. Ce travail est composé de cinq chapitres qui peuvent être regroupés en deux parties distinctes. Dans le premier cas il s'agit de la comparaison et de l'estimation de l'impact de réformes institutionnelles au sein du secteur coton en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Dans le second, de l'étude ex ante d'une innovation organisationnelle récente: les assurances fondées sur des indices météorologiques au sein de la zone soudano-sahélienne. Dans les deux cas ces analyses tentent de répondre à un besoin d'orientation les politiques visant au développement du secteur agricole en Afrique de l'Ouest et plus particulièrement à la question de l'accès au marché du crédit et de l'assurance pour les producteurs, nécessaire pour dépasser le stade de l'agriculture de subsistance (de Janvry et Sadoulet, 2011). Dans le premier chapitre, je passe en revue les réformes des filières cotonnières qui ont eu lieu en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Je construis trois indices synthétiques de libéralisation: la présence de capitaux privés et le degré de concurrence entre égreneurs ainsi que la flexibilité des prix au cours de la campagne. Ceci nous permet de construire et de valider la base de données utilisée dans le second chapitre. Nous montrons d'abord que les deux vagues de réformes ont été très différentes. La première concerne les pays anglophones, dont le secteur cotonnier a été libéralisé entre 1985 et 1995. La seconde (après 1995) concerne les pays francophones d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre. Nous montrons que ces dernières reposent plus sur une régulation de la filière, conservant de nombreuses caractéristiques des filières intégrées issue de la colonisation, contrairement aux réformes de la première vague de libéralisation. Tout d'abord, la concurrence établie n'est pas réelle puisque l'on voit l'installation de monopsones territoriaux d'égreneurs: les pays étant, dans la plupart des cas, divisés en zones d'opération pour chacun d'eux. Ensuite, les prix d'achat du coton sont encore fixés au semis et garantis jusque la récolte, absorbant les variations intra-saisonnières du prix international. Finalement on observe une rémanence du secteur privé, bien que des parts des sociétés cotonnières soient cédées au privé. Dans un second chapitre nous étudions l'impact de ces réformes sur la performance du secteur du coton dans les 16 principaux producteurs d'Afriques Sub-Saharienne en 2008. Nous utilisons pour cela des données de panel, issu de la FAO, appariées sur la période 1961-2008 à des données météorologiques mensuelles en grille (CRU TS3.1) considérées sur la période de croissance du coton, ce pour chaque année et chaque pays. Chaque cellule de la grille étant pondérée par la densité des surfaces cultivées en coton sur l'ensemble des territoires nationaux. Nous comparons les pays n'ayant pas réformé aux pays ayant régulé, installé une concurrence faible ou encore une concurrence forte. Nous montrons que les réformes menant à une régulation et à une forte concurrence ont un impact significatif sur les surfaces cultivées et les rendements. Ces résultats semblent validés par une estimation du potentiel biais de sélection, source limité d'endogéneité et robustes aux deux spécifications choisies: la première exploitant la dimension dynamique du panel (méthode des moments généralisés, dite GMM) et la seconde étant une analyse en différence de différences (moindres carrés avec effets fixes). Nous montrons d'abord que les réformes tendent à augmenter les rendements, hormis les réformes menant vers un faible niveau de concurrence, pour lequel l'effet des réformes n'est pas significatif. Les pays ayant régulé leur secteur cotonniers ont vu une croissance des surfaces semées en coton après les réformes. Les réformes menant à une forte compétition ont en revanche eu un impact négatif sur les surfaces cultivées, ce qui tend à valider l'approche institutionnelle qui suppose que le crédit aux intrants au semis, sans autre garantie que le coton récolté en fin de campagne, nécessite une relation de coordination qui est mise à mal par la concurrence. De même, comme le montre la littérature sur le sujet (Brambilla et Porto, 2011), il est possible qu'un effet de sélection ait opéré dans ces secteurs les plus concurrentiels, menant à limiter le nombre de producteurs cultivant du coton, aux dépend des producteurs les moins productifs, n'ayant pas accès aux marchés du crédit et de l'assurance. Dans le troisième chapitre nous réalisons une revue de la littérature sur les assurances indi- cielles, recensant les expériences dans les pays en développement, les méthodes sous-jacentes et les questions de recherche qui en découlent. Nous étudions finalement dans les chapitre 4 et 5 le potentiel de telles assurances dans deux cas spécifiques: le mil au Sud-Ouest du Niger et le coton au Nord du Cameroun. Ces assurances constituent une alternative intéressante aux assurances agricoles traditionnelles, coûteuses en raison de l'asymétrie d'information qui les caractérisent et de la nécessité de constater les dommages effectifs. Dans les deux cas nous montrons d'abord qu'accroître la complexité des indices pour mieux appréhender l'impact de la pluviométrie sur les rendements ne semble pas nécessaire. Les résultats, robustes à la cross-validation, corrigeant l'effet de la sur-identification (over-fitting) montre en effets que les gains de l'assurance sont relativement limités, mais surtout qu'il ne sont pas accrus par l'utilisation d'indices plus sophistiqués. Nous montrons aussi, dans le cas du mil, que la prise en compte de la forte variation des rendements au sein du même village est significative et qu'elle joue un rôle important dans le cas d'une fonction utilité concave. Les parcelles cultivées étant situées à moins de 3 kilomètres de la station météorologique, ce risque de base est bien dû à la présence de chocs idiosyncratiques (maladies, ravageurs.) ou à l'hétérogénéité des agents et des parcelles et non à un choc météorologique. Ce résultat tend à montrer que l'existence de ce risque de base résiduel, peut limiter la demande pour ce type d'assurance, en présence d'aversion pour le risque. Il s'inscrit dans la suite des travaux de Clarke (2011) qui montre que l'absence d'indemnisation, en cas de mauvais rendements, peut rendre l'assurance désavantageuse du fait du paiement de la prime (ce que j'appelle une erreur de type I). Ces résultats doivent être interprétés à la lumière du faible intérêt des producteurs pour ce genre de produits observés dans les récentes, mais néanmoins nombreuses, études ex post. Finalement, toujours dans ce premier cas, l'utilisation de données sur des parcelles fertilisées permet de montrer que ces résultats ne sont pas radicalement modifiés par la prise en compte d'une potentielle intensification des cultures, rendant pourtant la culture de mil plus risquée, et donc l'assurance plus intéressante. Dans le second cas, le coton, nous utilisons d'abord une expérimentation de terrain mettant en œuvre des jeux de loteries (inspiré de Holt et Laury, 2002), pour estimer la distribution des paramètres d'aversion pour le risque des producteurs. Nous montrons d'abord que, dans ce cas, l'effet de l'imparfaite corrélation des rendements et de l'indice météorologique choisi sur le gain en équivalent certain des producteurs, est significatif. C'est en particulier le cas dans les zones les plus humides ou montrant un climat spécifique. Contrairement au cas du mil au Niger, assurer les producteurs de coton semble nécessiter l'observation de la date de semis, dont le simulation ne semble pas nécessaire ou inadéquate vu les contraintes institutionnelles du secteur (comme par exemple les retards de livraison de graines et d'intrants). Nous remarquons ensuite que l'échelle d'étude étant plus importante dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, l'assurance risque de mener à des péréquations non désirées, par exemple des zone les plus humides envers les zones plus arides. Finalement nous observons, dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, que le gain apporté par la stabilisation des rendements est similaire, voire inférieur, à celui apporté par la stabilisation intra-saisonnière des prix qui a lieu aujourd'hui dans la filière Camerounaise intégrée (la Sodecoton détenant le monopole d'achat du coton graine au Cameroun). En effet, en annonçant le prix de vente au moment du semis, la société offre implicitement aux producteurs une assurance contre les variations du prix international au cours de la campagne. J'ai donc montré certaines limites intrinsèques aux mécanismes d'assurance fondés sur des indices météorologiques, en dépit de l'appréhension de la forte variabilité spatiale qui caractérise le climat soudano-sahélien au sein duquel les deux terrains se situent. Nous disposons en effet, dans les deux cas, d'une densité de stations météorologiques unique dans la région permettant de limiter le risque de base spatial. Ces résultats ne prennent toutefois pas en compte les effets indirects de l'assurance qui, lorsqu'elle est offerte conjointement avec un crédit aux intrants, peut baisser le prix de ce dernier, en limitant la probabilité de défaut en cas de sécheresse. J'ai par ailleurs aussi montré l'importance de l'accès au crédit pour les producteurs de coton ainsi que l'intérêt de la couverture contre le risque de variation du prix international dans le cas des cultures de rentes.
The African agricultural sector has been neglected by development aid during the last fifty years. It has not undertaken a green revolution, as it happened in Asia. The continent has a great potential for agricultural production but yields and technology adoption are still very low. Moreover many recent threats to food security represent a challenge for future development in Africa. Demographic growth, increase in commodity prices and price volatility, land use pressure and climate change are probably the most latent threats. In such context, it is necessary to develop new patterns of development for African agriculture. Those patterns should draw the consequences from past policies, which either relied on large investments and in favouring a development of the same nature that the one observed in rich or emerging economies. It seems that improving institutions and the environment to foster the evolution of African agriculture would be more adapted than previous strategies that consist in applying the same methods employed in the past. Food security can be achieved by improving rural households' income. Those households is composed by a vast majority of smallholders, for which agricultural production is a major resource for living. The necessary transition for stimulating production in remote areas seem to rely on fostering technology adoption and improve incentives for investments that would increase the productivity or the value added to smallholder production. We study two major organisational changes that are the reforms of cotton sector market structure in sub-Saharan Africa and index-based insurances. In both cases the point is to look at the potential of every organisation choice, reduce vulnerability and its effect, in particular the poverty trap phenomenon. The final objective is improve long run yield by foster investments, in spite of the risks borne by farmers and the tied budget constraint, consequence of the absence of financial (especially credit) markets. The cotton sectors inherited from the institutions of the colonial era, characterised by the concentration in cotton purchasing activities, often made by a parastatal at the national level. Those institutions contributed to generalise cotton production and to the diffusion of new technologies and agricultural practices, especially thanks to the distribution of quality inputs on credit, with future cotton production as collateral. Cotton production and technology adoption were also probably driven by the existence of a minimum guaranteed price set at the beginning of the cultivation season, the investments in infrastructures, research and extension services at the same national level. However, the concentration of the purchasing of cotton also poses some problems, reducing the bargaining power of producers and the proximity of the cotton. We look at the productivity response to cotton sector reforms that took place since 1985 in sub-Saharan Africa using the data from 16 cotton producers on the 1961-2008 period. We compare the performance of those countries with regard to their institutional choices. We first put into perspective the role of pre-reform investments before showing that if reforms may increase yields it could be to the cost of a shrinking area cultivated with cotton. In a second part we study the potential use of meteorological indices to smooth consumption over time and space. Such insurance policies are able to allow quick indemnifications for farmers enduring meteorological shocks. The realisation of the index is independent from the action of the principal and the agent, limiting moral hazard issues and the need for costly damage assessment arising from information asymmetry in traditional insurance contracts. Those insurance however suffer from the limited correlation between the index and the observed yield. We will study the potential of meteorological indices to limit the risk growers face in millet cultivation in Niger and cotton cultivation in Cameroon. We study, in particular, the index choice, the calibration of insurance contract parameters, the necessity of observing the sowing date and the level of basis risk. The large spatial variability of rainfall over the sudano-sahelian zone is a good reason to use such insurance, it however also explain the high level of basis risk of a given index that is observed using a network of rain gauges, itself installed at a cost. We discuss in both cases the relative importance of basis risk and the potential of such insurance to pool yield, and compare them to other risks, such as intra-village yield and price shocks. ; Ce travail de thèse présente l'analyse de deux changements organisationnels dans le cas du secteur agricole en Afrique Subsaharienne. Ce travail est composé de cinq chapitres qui peuvent être regroupés en deux parties distinctes. Dans le premier cas il s'agit de la comparaison et de l'estimation de l'impact de réformes institutionnelles au sein du secteur coton en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Dans le second, de l'étude ex ante d'une innovation organisationnelle récente: les assurances fondées sur des indices météorologiques au sein de la zone soudano-sahélienne. Dans les deux cas ces analyses tentent de répondre à un besoin d'orientation les politiques visant au développement du secteur agricole en Afrique de l'Ouest et plus particulièrement à la question de l'accès au marché du crédit et de l'assurance pour les producteurs, nécessaire pour dépasser le stade de l'agriculture de subsistance (de Janvry et Sadoulet, 2011). Dans le premier chapitre, je passe en revue les réformes des filières cotonnières qui ont eu lieu en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Je construis trois indices synthétiques de libéralisation: la présence de capitaux privés et le degré de concurrence entre égreneurs ainsi que la flexibilité des prix au cours de la campagne. Ceci nous permet de construire et de valider la base de données utilisée dans le second chapitre. Nous montrons d'abord que les deux vagues de réformes ont été très différentes. La première concerne les pays anglophones, dont le secteur cotonnier a été libéralisé entre 1985 et 1995. La seconde (après 1995) concerne les pays francophones d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre. Nous montrons que ces dernières reposent plus sur une régulation de la filière, conservant de nombreuses caractéristiques des filières intégrées issue de la colonisation, contrairement aux réformes de la première vague de libéralisation. Tout d'abord, la concurrence établie n'est pas réelle puisque l'on voit l'installation de monopsones territoriaux d'égreneurs: les pays étant, dans la plupart des cas, divisés en zones d'opération pour chacun d'eux. Ensuite, les prix d'achat du coton sont encore fixés au semis et garantis jusque la récolte, absorbant les variations intra-saisonnières du prix international. Finalement on observe une rémanence du secteur privé, bien que des parts des sociétés cotonnières soient cédées au privé. Dans un second chapitre nous étudions l'impact de ces réformes sur la performance du secteur du coton dans les 16 principaux producteurs d'Afriques Sub-Saharienne en 2008. Nous utilisons pour cela des données de panel, issu de la FAO, appariées sur la période 1961-2008 à des données météorologiques mensuelles en grille (CRU TS3.1) considérées sur la période de croissance du coton, ce pour chaque année et chaque pays. Chaque cellule de la grille étant pondérée par la densité des surfaces cultivées en coton sur l'ensemble des territoires nationaux. Nous comparons les pays n'ayant pas réformé aux pays ayant régulé, installé une concurrence faible ou encore une concurrence forte. Nous montrons que les réformes menant à une régulation et à une forte concurrence ont un impact significatif sur les surfaces cultivées et les rendements. Ces résultats semblent validés par une estimation du potentiel biais de sélection, source limité d'endogéneité et robustes aux deux spécifications choisies: la première exploitant la dimension dynamique du panel (méthode des moments généralisés, dite GMM) et la seconde étant une analyse en différence de différences (moindres carrés avec effets fixes). Nous montrons d'abord que les réformes tendent à augmenter les rendements, hormis les réformes menant vers un faible niveau de concurrence, pour lequel l'effet des réformes n'est pas significatif. Les pays ayant régulé leur secteur cotonniers ont vu une croissance des surfaces semées en coton après les réformes. Les réformes menant à une forte compétition ont en revanche eu un impact négatif sur les surfaces cultivées, ce qui tend à valider l'approche institutionnelle qui suppose que le crédit aux intrants au semis, sans autre garantie que le coton récolté en fin de campagne, nécessite une relation de coordination qui est mise à mal par la concurrence. De même, comme le montre la littérature sur le sujet (Brambilla et Porto, 2011), il est possible qu'un effet de sélection ait opéré dans ces secteurs les plus concurrentiels, menant à limiter le nombre de producteurs cultivant du coton, aux dépend des producteurs les moins productifs, n'ayant pas accès aux marchés du crédit et de l'assurance. Dans le troisième chapitre nous réalisons une revue de la littérature sur les assurances indi- cielles, recensant les expériences dans les pays en développement, les méthodes sous-jacentes et les questions de recherche qui en découlent. Nous étudions finalement dans les chapitre 4 et 5 le potentiel de telles assurances dans deux cas spécifiques: le mil au Sud-Ouest du Niger et le coton au Nord du Cameroun. Ces assurances constituent une alternative intéressante aux assurances agricoles traditionnelles, coûteuses en raison de l'asymétrie d'information qui les caractérisent et de la nécessité de constater les dommages effectifs. Dans les deux cas nous montrons d'abord qu'accroître la complexité des indices pour mieux appréhender l'impact de la pluviométrie sur les rendements ne semble pas nécessaire. Les résultats, robustes à la cross-validation, corrigeant l'effet de la sur-identification (over-fitting) montre en effets que les gains de l'assurance sont relativement limités, mais surtout qu'il ne sont pas accrus par l'utilisation d'indices plus sophistiqués. Nous montrons aussi, dans le cas du mil, que la prise en compte de la forte variation des rendements au sein du même village est significative et qu'elle joue un rôle important dans le cas d'une fonction utilité concave. Les parcelles cultivées étant situées à moins de 3 kilomètres de la station météorologique, ce risque de base est bien dû à la présence de chocs idiosyncratiques (maladies, ravageurs.) ou à l'hétérogénéité des agents et des parcelles et non à un choc météorologique. Ce résultat tend à montrer que l'existence de ce risque de base résiduel, peut limiter la demande pour ce type d'assurance, en présence d'aversion pour le risque. Il s'inscrit dans la suite des travaux de Clarke (2011) qui montre que l'absence d'indemnisation, en cas de mauvais rendements, peut rendre l'assurance désavantageuse du fait du paiement de la prime (ce que j'appelle une erreur de type I). Ces résultats doivent être interprétés à la lumière du faible intérêt des producteurs pour ce genre de produits observés dans les récentes, mais néanmoins nombreuses, études ex post. Finalement, toujours dans ce premier cas, l'utilisation de données sur des parcelles fertilisées permet de montrer que ces résultats ne sont pas radicalement modifiés par la prise en compte d'une potentielle intensification des cultures, rendant pourtant la culture de mil plus risquée, et donc l'assurance plus intéressante. Dans le second cas, le coton, nous utilisons d'abord une expérimentation de terrain mettant en œuvre des jeux de loteries (inspiré de Holt et Laury, 2002), pour estimer la distribution des paramètres d'aversion pour le risque des producteurs. Nous montrons d'abord que, dans ce cas, l'effet de l'imparfaite corrélation des rendements et de l'indice météorologique choisi sur le gain en équivalent certain des producteurs, est significatif. C'est en particulier le cas dans les zones les plus humides ou montrant un climat spécifique. Contrairement au cas du mil au Niger, assurer les producteurs de coton semble nécessiter l'observation de la date de semis, dont le simulation ne semble pas nécessaire ou inadéquate vu les contraintes institutionnelles du secteur (comme par exemple les retards de livraison de graines et d'intrants). Nous remarquons ensuite que l'échelle d'étude étant plus importante dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, l'assurance risque de mener à des péréquations non désirées, par exemple des zone les plus humides envers les zones plus arides. Finalement nous observons, dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, que le gain apporté par la stabilisation des rendements est similaire, voire inférieur, à celui apporté par la stabilisation intra-saisonnière des prix qui a lieu aujourd'hui dans la filière Camerounaise intégrée (la Sodecoton détenant le monopole d'achat du coton graine au Cameroun). En effet, en annonçant le prix de vente au moment du semis, la société offre implicitement aux producteurs une assurance contre les variations du prix international au cours de la campagne. J'ai donc montré certaines limites intrinsèques aux mécanismes d'assurance fondés sur des indices météorologiques, en dépit de l'appréhension de la forte variabilité spatiale qui caractérise le climat soudano-sahélien au sein duquel les deux terrains se situent. Nous disposons en effet, dans les deux cas, d'une densité de stations météorologiques unique dans la région permettant de limiter le risque de base spatial. Ces résultats ne prennent toutefois pas en compte les effets indirects de l'assurance qui, lorsqu'elle est offerte conjointement avec un crédit aux intrants, peut baisser le prix de ce dernier, en limitant la probabilité de défaut en cas de sécheresse. J'ai par ailleurs aussi montré l'importance de l'accès au crédit pour les producteurs de coton ainsi que l'intérêt de la couverture contre le risque de variation du prix international dans le cas des cultures de rentes.
List of Figures. List of Tables. List of Contributors. Acknowledgements. Part I Introduction 1. Refugees: Status, Conditions and their Future Part II Constitution and Refugees 2. Genealogies of Discourse: Updating the National Register of Citizens in Assam 3. The State of Being Stateless: Examining and Evaluating the Grounds of Exclusion in Assam's NRC Exercise through Class and Gender 4. The Citizen Determination Process in India (including the citizenship Amendment Bill 2016) and the Ensuing Refugee Crisis 5. Exclusionary Trends in the Indian Citizenship Regime Part III Refugee Law and Policy 6. Exploring Refugee Lives in India Through the Lens of Legal Pluralism 7. Rohingya Refugees in India: Governmental and Judicial Attitude 8. India's Refugee Law and Politics of Hospitality since Independence 9. Discourse around the Refugee Protection Paradigm in India 10. International Refugee Law and the Indian State: Contested Law and Refugee Life between 'Two States" 11. India's Refugee Protection Obligations beyond the 1951 Refugee Convention and the 1967 Protocol 12. The Refugee Convention of 1951: India's Persisting Dilemma 13. Reimagining Refugee Protection in India vis-à-vis Global Compact on Refugees Part IV Statelessness 14. Statelessness and the Indian State: National Belonging and the Right of Space 15. Stateless in India: Institutionalizing Home-Grown Solutions 16. Stateless among the Refugees 17. Refugees, Asylum Seekers and Stateless Citizens Part V Refugees 18. The Life of Labels: Refugees, Displaced Persons and Migrants 19. Between Host and Home: Cultural Lives and Activism of refugees 20. Refugees and Sustainable Development Goals: An Insight 21. Socio-Demographic Profile of Forced Migration 22. Resilience and Coping Mechanisms of Refugee Communities 23. Education and Lifelong Learning for Refugees: Equity and Inclusion in Policy and Practice 24. Conservation of Resources and Post-migration Stress Part VI Jewish Refugees 25. The History of Refugee Jewish Migration Part VII Rohingya Refugees 26. Rohingya Refugees in India 27. Living Conditions of Rohingya in India 28. The Rohingya Refugees in Hyderabad 29. The Perpetual Exceptions to Rights: Rohingya in India 30. Statelessness-Citizenship Continuum: The Rohingya's Quest for Belonging and Surviving 31. Autonomy and Dignity of the Rohingya Woman 32. Human Security: A Solution-based Approach to the Rohingya Refugee Policy 33. India's Response towards the Rohingya Crisis 34. Rohingya Refugees and Myanmar: State, Citizenship and Human Rights 35. Rohinya Refugees in Jammu: Analysis of Socio-economic and Demographic Conditions Part VIII Sindhi Refugees 36. Cartographies of Sindh: Religion, Region, Language 37. Resettlement Experiences of Sindhi Women Refugees Post-Partition Part IX Pakistani and Bangladeshi Hindu Refugees 38. Locating Pakistani Nationals in India: Challenges and Responses 39. A Pakistani Hindu Demographic Survey, Western Rajasthan 40. Livelihood Strategies: Pakistani Hindu Refugees in Rajasthan 41. Bengali Hindu Refugees in the Andaman Islands Part X Tibetan Refugees 42. The Privileged Refugees: Questions on Tibetan Nationality and Citizenship 43. Education of Tibetan Refugees: Sowing Future Seeds of Tibet 44. Making of a Mediatized Tibetan Diaspora in the 21st century 45. Household Economy and Livelihood Strategies among Tibetan Refugees Part XI Sri Lankan Refugees 46. Resolution of the Sri Lankan Refugee Dilemma 47. At the margins: Tamil refugee women in camps in Tamil Nadu 48. Sri Lankan Tamil Refugees: A Voiceless, Undignified Existence 49. Life of Sri Lankan Refugee Women in the Camps of Tamil Nadu 50. A synthesis of studies examining Sri Lankan Refugee families in India 51. Life-Livelihood-Dignity model of rehabilitation for Sri Lankan Refugees 52. The Contribution of Forced Colonial Migration to the Refugee Crisis: A Focus on Indian Origin Tamil Refugees from Sri Lanka 53. Repatriates and Refugees in Tamil Nadu: Learning to Live in Colonies and Camps 54. Spatial Dimensions in Narratives of History: Sri Lankan Repatriates on Katchal and Little Andaman Part XII Afghan Refugees 55. Gendered Refugee Experience: The Case of Afghan Women Refugees 56. Cast Away: Understanding Experiences of Afghan Hindu, Sikh and Christian Refugees Part XIII Emerging Issues 57. Tibetan Community in Exile: A Model for Other Refugee Groups 58. Pushbacks at Borders 59. The Economic Status of Sri Lankan and Tibetan Refugees in India 60. Afghans Refugees in the Higher Education System in Delhi 61. Agony of Survival: Refugees and Marginality in India during COVID-19 62. From Frames of Victimhood to that of Othering: Mapping Media Representations of Refugees 63. Media Representation of Rohingya Refugees 64. Healthcare for Refugees in India: A Humanitarian Approachtowards Public Health for All 65. The Global Compact on Refugees and the Global Compact for Migration: A Grand Experiment. Index.
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Introduction: Demarcating the field of local media and journalism / Agnes Gulyas and David Baines -- Historicising the after-life, local newspapers in the United Kingdom and the 'art of prognosis' / Rachel Matthews -- A history of the local newspaper in Japan / Anthony S. Rausch -- Local news deserts in Brazil : historical and contemporary perspectives / Carlos Eduardo Lins da Silva and Angela Pimenta -- History of local media in Norway / Eli Skogerbø -- State of play : Local media, power and society in the Caribbean / Juliette Marie Storr -- 'Peopleization' of news : the development of the American television news format / Madeleine Liseblad -- The death of broadcast localism in the United States / Christopher Ali -- Developing local media policies in sub-state nations : the case of Catalonia / Mariola Tarrega and Josep Guimerà -- Local journalism in Australia : Policy debates / Kristy Hess and Lisa Waller -- The development of community broadcasting legislation in Kenya / Rose Kimani -- Local media policies in Poland : Key issues and debates / Sylwia Mecfal -- The impact of communication policies in local television models. The cases of Catalonia and Scotland / Aida Martori Muntsant -- Local journalism in the United States : Its publics, its problems, and its potentials / C.W. Anderson -- Remediating the local through localised news making : India's booming multi-lingual press as agent in political and social change / Ursula Rao -- De-professionalization and fragmentation : challenges for local journalism in Sweden / Gunnar Nygren -- Central and local media in Russia : between central control and local initiatives / Ilya Kiriya -- The return of party journalism in China and 'Janusian' content : the case of Newspaper X / Jingrong Tong -- Strategy over substance and national in focus? Local television coverage of politics and policy in the US / Erika Franklin Fowler -- From journal of record to the 24/7 news cycle : perspectives on the changing nature of court reporting in Australia / Margaret Simons and Jason Bosland -- Business and ownership of local media : an international perspective / Bill Reader and John Hatcher -- Local media owners as saviours in the Czech Republic : they save money, not journalism / Lenka Waschková Císarová -- What can we learn from independent family-owned local media groups? Case studies from the UK / Sarah O'Hara -- Local media in France : subsidized, heavily regulated and under pressure / Matthieu Lardeau -- 'I've started a hyperlocal, so now what?' / Marco van Kerkhoven -- The hyperlocal 'renaissance' in Australia and New Zealand / Scott Downman and Richard Murray -- At the crossroads of hobby, community work and media business : Nordic and Russian hyperlocal practitioners / Jaana Hujanen, Olga Dovbysh, Carina Tenor, Mikko Grönlund, Katja Lehtisaari and Carl-Gustav Lindén -- Not all doom and gloom : the story of American small market newspapers / Christopher Ali, Damian Radcliffe and Rosalind Donald -- Local journalism in Bulgaria : trends from the Worlds of Journalism study / Vera Slavtcheva-Petkova -- Specialised training of local journalists in armed conflict : the Colombian experience / Yennue Zárate Valderrama -- From community to commerce? Analytics, audience 'engagement' and how local newspapers are renegotiating news values in the age of pageview-driven journalism in the UK / James Morrison -- Two tier tweeting : how promotional and personalised use of Twitter is shaping journalistic practices in the UK / Lily Canter -- Centralised and digitally disrupted : an ethnographic view of local journalism in New Zealand / Helen Sissons -- Situating journalistic coverage : a practice theory approach to researching local community radio production in the United Kingdom / Josephine F. Coleman -- What does the audience experience as valuable local journalism? Approaching local news quality from a user's perspective / Irene Costera Meijer -- Local journalism and at-risk communities in the United States / Philip M. Napoli and Matthew Weber -- The emerging deficit : changing local journalism and its impact on communities in Australia / Margaret Simons, Andrea Carson, Denis Muller and Jennifer Martin -- Strength in numbers : building collaborative partnerships for data-driven community news / Jan Lauren Boyles -- Bottom-up hyperlocal media in Belgium : Facebook-groups as collaborative neighborhood awareness systems / Jonas De Meulenaere, Cédric Courtois and Koen Ponnet -- Local news repertoires in a transforming Swedish media landscape / Annika Bergström -- The what, the where, and the why of local news in the United States / Angela Lee -- Local media and disaster reporting in Japan / Florian Meissner and Jun Tsukada -- Public service journalism and engagement in US hyperlocal non-profits / Patrick Ferrucci -- Local public service media in Northern Ireland : the merit goods argument / Phil Ramsey and Philip McDermott -- Participation in local radio agricultural broadcasts and message adoption among rural farmers in Northern Ghana / Adam Tanko Zakariah -- Pacific Islanders' Talanoa values and public support point the way forward / Shailendra Singh -- Alternative journalism, alternative ethics? / Tony Harcup.
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Chapter 1. Break the Cycle of Children's Environmental Health Disparities: 14th Annual Review of Program and Student Projects (I. Leslie Rubin, MD, Robert J. Geller, MD, Claire D. Coles, PhD, Victoria Green, MD, Abby Mutic, PhD, Nathan Mutic, Wayne Garfinkel, Benjamin A. Gitterman, MD, and Joav Merrick, MD, DMSc, Department of Pediatrics, Morehouse School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, US, and others) -- Section One: A Commentary -- Chapter 2. Natural Disasters and Vulnerable Populations: A Commentary (I. Leslie Rubin, MD, Robert J. Geller, MD, Claire D. Coles, PhD, Victoria Green, MD, Abby Mutic, PhD, Nathan Mutic, Wayne Garfinkel, Benjamin A. Gitterman, MD, and Joav Merrick, MD, DMSc, Department of Pediatrics, Morehouse School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, US, and others) -- Section Two: Break the Cycle Projects -- Chapter 3. Barriers and Opportunities for Young Caregivers to Provide Nurturing Care in Low-Income Communities of Paraguay (Jimena Vallejos, Cassie Landers, EdD, and Renata Schiavo, PhD, Columbia University School of International and Public Affair, New York, US, and others) -- Chapter 4. The Development of a Prenatal Care Health Literacy Instrument for American Indian Mothers (Jordyn A. Gunville, and Jessica Williams, PhD, Center for American Indian Community Health, Kansas City, Kansas, US, and others) -- Chapter 5. Breaking the Cycle of Childhood Adversity through Pediatric Primary Care Screening and Interventions: A Pilot Study (Cristian Quizhpi, MD, Karen Schetzina, MD, Gayatri Jaishankar, MD, Robert Matthew Tolliver, PhD, Deborah Thibeault, Hakyong Gloria Kwak, Olushola Fapo, MD, Jennifer Gibson, MD, Katie Duvall and David Wood, MD, Department of Pediatrics, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, Tennessee, US, and others) -- Chapter 6. Educating Clinic Support Staff to Enhance Early Learning Environments through Pediatric Well-Child Visits (Cori Walker, Asher Liu, Snigdha Gupta, Fuad Baroody, MD, andDana Suskind, MD, TMW Center for Early Learning and Public Health, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, US) -- Chapter 7. Contextualizing the Social and Structural Constraints of Accessing Autism Services among Single Black Female Caregivers (Alice Hong and Jennifer S. Singh, MPH, PhD, Georgia Institute of Technology, School of History and Sociology, Atlanta, Georgia, US) -- Chapter 8. Engaging Parents of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder to Identify Rural Health Disparities and Factors Related to Delayed Diagnosis and Treatment (Amy A. Blumling, Susan Brasher, PhD, and Jennifer Stapel-Wax, PsyD, Nell Hodgson Woodruff School of Nursing, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, US, and others) -- Chapter 9. Evaluation of Health Literacy in Childhood-Onset -- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Patients and Its Effect on Healthcare Utilization (Catherine Park, MD, Traci Leong, PhD, Alexandria Wilkerson, -- Christy Kang, Margret Kamel, PhD, Kelly Rouster-Stevens, MD, and Roshan George, MD, Division of Pediatric Nephrology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, US, and others) -- Chapter 10. Did Medicaid Expansion Decrease Disparities for Receipt of Preventive Medical Care among Vulnerable Children? (Patricia Daniel, PhD, Audrey Leroux, PhD, and Brian Barger, Center for Leadership in Disability, Georgia State University and Department of Educational Policy Studies, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, US, and others) -- Chapter 11. Self-Perceived Neighborhood Quality and Children's Depression Symptoms in a Gentrifying Northern Manhattan (Teresa Durham, Amy Margolis, PhD, David Pagliaccio, PhD, Wanda Garcia, Kylie Wheelock Riley, Jia Guo, Shuang Wang, PhD, Bradley S. Peterson, MD, Virginia Rauh, ScD, and Julie B. Herbstman, PhD, Columbia Center for Children's Environmental Health, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York City, New York, US, and others) -- Chapter 12. Water Infrastructure and Childhood Blood Lead Levels: Characterizing the Effects of Exclusion from Municipal Services in Wake County (NC, USA) (Allison C. Clonch, Michael Fisher, PhD, and Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson, PhD, Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, -- University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, US, and -- others) -- Chapter 13. The Impact of Childhood Exercise and Household Income on Resilience in College Students (Leah Postilnik, and Maeve Howett, PhD, College of Nursing, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, US, and others) -- Section Three: Acknowledgements -- Chapter 14. About the Editors -- Chapter 15. About Break the Cycle of Health Disparities, Inc. -- Chapter 16. About the Pediatric Environmental Health Specialty -- Unit (PEHSU) -- Chapter 17. About the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development in Israel -- Section four: Index.
Machine generated contents note:ch. 1Introduction --1.1.Research background basic consensus --1.2.Existing literature: a brief review --1.3.Analytical logic and research objective --1.4.Related concepts and definitions --1.5.Problems and difficulties --1.6.Analytical structure and basic conclusions --ch. 2Economic Globalization and Trade Off --2.1.Modern picture of global economy connection: the world after 16th century --2.2.Benefits and costs of globalization: question from Stiglitz --2.3.Economic globalization: where are we going --ch. 3Adjustment of Global Economy and China's Choice --3.1.China in global economic adjustment: a remote retrospect --3.2.Trade choice and institution conflict in global economic adjustment --3.3.Government's role and policy choice in global economic adjustment --ch. 4Institution Change, Degree of Openness and Economic Growth --4.1.Theory of institution-economy growth --4.2.Degree of openness, institution change and economic growth: econometric analysis --4.3.Conclusion --ch. 5Economic Globalization and China's Economic Growth: Relationship and Efficiency --5.1.Introduction --5.2.Economic globalization and economy growth: evolution of theoretical logic and analytical paradigm --5.3.Economic globalization and economic growth: China as an example --5.4.Conclusion and policy implications --ch. 6Global Economic Adjustment, Capital Flow and China's Economy Growth --6.1.Introduction --6.2.Openness, capital flows and economic growth: theoretical logic and empirical test --6.3.Capital flow and China's economic growth: empirical analysis --6.4.Conclusion and policy implications --ch. 7Global Economy Growth, Economic Structure and Capital Market --7.1.Research background and problems --7.2.Stucture change of global economy and capital market: a historical perspective --7.3.Economy growth, structure change and capital market: a theoretical analysis --7.4.Economic growth, structure change and capital market: China's practice --ch. 8China's Economy Growth and Capital Market in the Background of Global Economy Adjustment: Further Discussion --8.1.Introduction and data --8.2.The connection between capital market and economic growth: theory and example --8.3.Capital market and China's economy growth: empirical analysis --8.4.Why can't China's capital market have positive effect on economic structure change and economic growth --8.5.Brief conclusion --ch. 9Global Economic Adjustment, Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy Choice: General Discussion --9.1.Introduction: adjustment theory and analytical perspectives of analysis --9.2.Economic adjustment stages and features of China's economic growth --9.3.Fiscal policy choice: promoting a balanced economic growth --ch. 10Global Economic Adjustment, Balanced Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy Choice --10.1.Introduction --10.2.Economic growth pattern: to be more balanced --10.3.Fiscal policies aiming to improve income distribution: further discussion --10.4.Fiscal policies coordinating with financial market reform --10.5.Fiscal policies changing the innovation direction of enterprises --10.6.Complicatedness of fiscal policies in adjustment period --ch. 11Global Economic Adjustment, Monetary Policy Evolution and Related Trade-off --11.1.Monetary policy evolution: a picture at early stage --11.2.Forming monetary policy frame: process and logic --11.3.Change of financial structures and adjustment of monetary policy goal --11.4.Change of monetary policy environment and policy efficiency --11.5.Internal conflict and external balance: a trade-off of monetary policy in China --ch. 12Financial Stability and New Objective of Monetary Policy in Global Economic Adjustment --12.1.Introduction: emergence of financial stability goal in globalization era --12.2.External source of financial instability: imbalance global economic --12.3.Internal source of financial instability: over-fluctuation of asset price --12.4.Economy imbalance and financial instability: Japan's case --12.5.Conclusion: required change of monetary policy' ultimate goal --ch. 13Global Economic Adjustment, National Choice and Mix of Fiscal and Monetary Policies --13.1.Imbalance of global economy: features, formations and policy choice --13.2.Basic choice for a nation to adjust economy in the background of global economic adjustment --13.3.Macro control system in the background of global economic adjustment --13.4.Fiscal and monetary policy mix as a way to resolve internal-external imbalance --ch. 14Seeking Effective Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Background of Global Economic Adjustment --14.1.Introduction --14.2.China's fiscal and monetary policy mix in macro control: a historical trail --14.3.What is the problem of China's fiscal and monetary policy mix --14.4.Rules of economy policy design and patterns of fiscal and monetary policy mix --14.5.Choice and use of fiscal and monetary instruments --14.6.Reformulate the micro basis and transmission mechanism of fiscal and monetary policies --14.7.International cooperation of fiscal and monetary policies --ch. 15Conclusion.
