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The point of this paper is to emphasize the importance and role of leadership for African growth, development, and poverty reduction. It is also an attempt to project a more objective assessment of leadership issues during the first three to four decades of African independence. Agreeing on shared responsibilities for Africa's failures in its early years will enable all who want to take part in the continent's renewal to focus on the partnership that is now needed to close a sad chapter in Africa's history, and open a new one. The core elements of such a partnership have evolved in the last decade, and this paper argues passionately for the political will, in Africa and outside, for their realization.

Drivers, characteristics and barriers of beneficial and adapted response mechanisms to water-related risks in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) are at the centre of this PhD research. These subject matters owe their importance to a manifold range of factors. Water is at the fore as the most formative element for landscapes and societies in the VMD – not only in its function as a vital source of livelihood but also as a threatening natural hazard. Water-related hazards have changed and will continue to change amidst a vibrant socio-economic setting and a fundamentally changing climate. These looming threats and the ongoing changes require action if the prospering character of Vietnam's rice bowl is to be maintained. Long-term and short-term-oriented response mechanisms have thus aroused a great deal of interest in science, practice and in the public debate. Strategic assessments of the nature and values of risk-related measures have, however, rarely been addressed in the Mekong Delta context. This research has therefore brought evaluation of coping and adaptation in the context of water-related risks into focus. Quality judgements are at the centre of interest in the international community of evaluation research and practice. Within this community, evaluations commonly revolve around the identification of the most efficient strategy for a specific target group. Quality is, however, a measure of basic normative considerations on divergent implications and distinct values – aspects which cannot always be measured by a mere effectiveness assessment which judges "good" responses in seemingly absolute terms. A more comprehensive evaluation in combination with a profound understanding of the local context and individuals' decision-making processes is an essential prerequisite for identifying barriers to "good" adaptation and coping. This is, in turn, a vital requirement for promoting more sustainable development pathways for the Mekong Delta. This thesis therefore aims at a holistic assessment of "good" risk-related response mechanisms, an identification of more than just economic barriers to the successful implementation of these strategies, and an exploration of context-specific and actor-oriented ways of overcoming the barriers. The study consequently develops an innovative and adaptable evaluation framework which takes a multi-disciplinary perspective of risk-related strategies. This concept draws on three different schools of thought and combines them in an integrative approach. Firstly, it takes a social-ecological system perspective. In contrast to most of evaluation research and practice, this framework thereby explicitly addresses the risk context. It allows actors at various scales to be addressed and considers multiple dimensions. Vulnerability, as a concept arising from this line of thought, provides an expedient baseline to judge the relevance of taking action, grasp the complexity of strategy outcomes, and identify barriers emerging from the overall risk context. Secondly, the vulnerability concept is linked with an actor-oriented perspective derived from a socio-cognitive model of adaptation decision-making. This provides a, widely neglected, actor-oriented perspective to evaluation. It explains why decisions to adapt or cope are taken and involves a subjective and actor-specific evaluation component. Thirdly, the framework involves a more structured analysis of the actual adaptation/coping process along the lines of so-called "theories of change". It comprises the assessment of strategy implementation, outcomes and impacts on the vulnerability of different groups and can therefore facilitate outcome- and process-oriented evaluations. Such a multi-faceted analysis entails quite a number of methodological challenges such as empirically unfolding implicit preference structures, revealing underlying interconnectivities across scales, and facing difficulties specific to doing field research in Vietnam. A mixed-methods paradigm was used to address many of these challenges. A deliberately chosen set of methods in combination with a conscientious and flexible process created thereby the foundation for a more encompassing empirical assessment of risk-related strategies in the VMD. The data demonstrate that the risk context was diverse and varied, most notably with regard to the geographic location of the production area and the agro-economic indicators. Rice producers were the least exposed group, but experienced the largest production losses. This was mainly due to the fact that the farmers raised their susceptibility significantly by introducing winter-spring rice in 2011. In addition, the vulnerability of rice farmers was reinforced by low risk-specific capacities to cope and adapt. Aquaculture and sugarcane producers were more experienced in dealing with water-related hazards and/or produced less susceptible commodities. Nevertheless, the hydrological and geophysical characteristics as well as the location with regard to the hydraulic infrastructure made these farmers more exposed to water-related hazards than rice producers. The analysis also shows that these vulnerability patterns have and will most likely gather momentum as the sea level rises and socio-political changes lead to agricultural modernisation and rural industrialisation. How far and why the past and the future risk context induces "good" coping and adaptation actions depended, however, not only on the actual but also on the individually perceived risks. A social-psychology perspective motivated and guided by the social-ecological vulnerability concept indicates why intentions to act were formed and how different actors evaluated the quality of strategy options. The analysis of risk perception shows, for instance, that the perceived threats (i.e. hazard exposure and susceptibility) could differ substantially from the revealed threats. This became most apparent in the example of the individuals' appraisal of salinity threats. Rice producers perceived a low hazard exposure in a year of high salinity values and also seemed to have misjudged their susceptibility. This was a major reason for their producing winter-spring rice in the season with the highest salinity exposure, i.e. an action which increased the susceptibility substantially. The perceived capacity of response and the subjective quality judgement of the acknowledged adaptation and coping options were also of central importance for forming an intention to act. The empirical data suggest that households had a clear preference for protective infrastructural measures, despite the subjectively perceived high costs and low income effects. This seemed to be due to the positively judged long-term effects. Corresponding to this finding, negative long-term effects were a major factor restraining the application of many strategies, most notably taking children out of school, selling assets and buying on credit. Income effects were, thus, of less importance to people than expected from the weighting of quality criteria in group discussions. Migration was, for example, rarely preferred over other strategies although it was perceived to have the most positive income effect of all strategies (in addition to the judgement that it is easily implementable and comes at a comparatively low cost). This is only one of many examples which show that subjective evaluations cannot always be explained with common evaluation criteria, are often context-specific and represent in many cases more of an intuition than a structured quality judgement. Still, structured and "objectivity"-based approaches from evaluation research are essential elements in a more holistic judgement and analysis of risk-related response mechanisms and were therefore taken into consideration. They describe the revealed characteristics of the strategies, indicate their implications for the risk context, and provide a valid basis of comparison to the subjective evaluations. A theory-of-change-led assessment of the most common household strategies shows that strategies which induced a change in the exposure of the household were rarely applied in the context of flood and salinity risks. Households hardly ever sold exposed land although buyers were easily found and land prices were comparatively high. Moreover, strategies which caused a susceptibility reduction played only a minor role. Susceptibility-reducing strategies, such as the construction and maintenance of dikes and a change of crops, were either rarely put into practice or had merely a short-term impact. Most of the measures were intended to strengthen the coping and adaptive capacity. Raising the short-term availability of financial capital by buying on credit or taking a loan were the most common measures. However, these strategies often reduced the capacity of response in the long-term. Measures which were intended to strengthen the stock of capital endowment, in contrast, came at a high cost in the short-run but had positive effects on the capacity of response in the long-run. At the government level, the responsibilities with regard to flood- and salinity-related risk management were allocated hierarchically based on the centrally planned and highly technocratic Vietnamese state system. Protective and productive infrastructural measures were the most influential strategies from governmental side. The strong preference for the construction and management of dikes and sluice gates was largely based on their role in protecting a large number of people in the areas inside the dike. Nevertheless, these infrastructure-related measures had detrimental effects such as an increased flood risk outside the dike and strengthened the motivation to apply susceptibility-increasing strategies inside the dike (growing winter-spring rice, in particular). These aspects turn the construction and management of protective infrastructure into the most controversially judged measures in the research area. Susceptibility reduction seemed to play a merely minor role. Only the regular dredging of a canal had a substantial impact on the vulnerability of a large share of the population. The majority of strategies were applied in order to strengthen the capacity of response. The short-term oriented strategies, i.e. compensation payments and flood and salinity warnings, seemed to have had only a short-term effect, if any, on the capacity to cope. Agricultural training and public loan schemes were, in contrast, more common, had a longer-term effect, and were more positively judged. Overall, analyses of strategies along the lines of theories of change have been shown to facilitate a better understanding of the quality of certain strategies. In an integrative analysis with the previously outlined risk context and decision-making processes, this evaluation perspective provides innovative findings about evaluations of and barriers to "good" coping and adaptation at a region-specific, methodological and conceptual level. The analysis of the risk context enabled an identification of many context-specific barriers and recommendations for action. The data, for instance, show that several of the geo-physical and ecological limits may not be limits in "real" terms - at least not when they are taken up at higher-level arenas. Without mitigation action on a global level, sea level rise may turn most other barriers into limits and make adaptation on site impossible. Further geo-physical and ecological characteristics constitute barriers which can be overcome by "better" infrastructural planning and coordinated international and inter-regional water-resource management. Most of the economic barriers have been shown to emerge from agricultural modernisation and rural industrialisation. De-industrialised and diversified forms of income generation could clear many of these barriers and provide a basis for more sustainable livelihoods. Cognitive and knowledge-related obstacles were identified at the level of individuals' decision-making processes. Knowledge barriers arose mainly at the level of non-agricultural employment. A more adapted vocational education system could help seize the opportunities that rural industrialisation policies provide. Knowledge barriers to the implementation of "good" risk-specific strategies could be addressed by a more explicit inclusion of salinity-and flood-specific content in agricultural training. A participatory approach would, in this context, be conducive in strengthening the trust in expert know-how, involve local knowledge, develop context-specific solutions, and convey an understanding for diverging interests and implications. Many of the cognitive barriers emerged from too strong a reliance on the actions of other actors, most notably on governmental measures. In addition, cognitive processes converted some barriers into perceived limits. Too strong a hierarchical thinking and an often subordinate mentality made people believe that an order from the respective higher level is inviolable. It has thus been shown to be of particular importance to raise awareness with regard to the fallibility of infrastructural measures in addition to a reinforcement of the household's belief in its own capability to implement "good" response mechanisms. At the institutional level, the multifaceted approach revealed that a lack of official demand for evaluations, an unclear structure of responsibilities, vaguely defined criteria and insufficient control mechanisms inhibited an expedient evaluation practice. These barriers (as well as several other obstacles identified before) often relate to general institutional barriers such as prevailing elitism, a lack of participatory decision-making and the technocratic nature of the system. Many barriers thus have to be defeated at the level of national regulations and can be supported by technical cooperation from international partners. At the local level, stronger cooperation between NGOs, development organisations, researchers and the local government would provide a pertinent basis for more evaluation-based data exchanges and appraisals. Besides this lack of evaluation activities, the analysis has revealed methodological shortcomings in existing evaluation practice. It has been shown that there is a need to include more than just economic criteria, improve the competences of local evaluators in participatory and qualitative methods, specify and enforce the evaluation guidelines, and increase local participation in evaluation practice. In conclusion, the concerted analysis of risks and risk-related strategies on multiple levels and a comparison of revealed and perceived realities have been shown to put the often assumed "objective" vulnerability into perspective. At the same time, a vulnerability-centred lens in a socio-cognitive decision-making model has added agency to the often one-sided reflection of risk perception as a mere function of the individuals' appraisal of probability and magnitude of an event. It has also been demonstrated that the identification of "good" strategies is highly complex and specific to the evaluation method, the stakeholder, the spatial-scale and the time-scale. Many drivers, opportunities and barriers would therefore have remained uncovered if the conceptual framework had not included multiple scales and actor groups; single data sets had suggested a less reliable evaluation result; and an analysis based on a single evaluation approach would have depicted a merely one-sided judgement of a strategy's quality. In the end, this thesis has not presented the "ultimate" strategy in response to water-related risks in rural areas of the Mekong Delta. On the contrary, it is argued that such absolute judgments are neither achievable nor desirable. The suggested context-specific and actor-oriented evaluation approach, instead, has acknowledged and grasped the distinct nature and diverse values of risk-related strategies and has thereby made a contribution to promoting flexible and adapted measures for more sustainable development pathways for the Vietnamese Mekong Delta.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.-- CIMBA et al. ; BRCA1-associated breast and ovarian cancer risks can be modified by common genetic variants. To identify further cancer risk-modifying loci, we performed a multi-stage GWAS of 11,705 BRCA1 carriers (of whom 5,920 were diagnosed with breast and 1,839 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer), with a further replication in an additional sample of 2,646 BRCA1 carriers. We identified a novel breast cancer risk modifier locus at 1q32 for BRCA1 carriers (rs2290854, P = 2.7 × 10(-8), HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.20). In addition, we identified two novel ovarian cancer risk modifier loci: 17q21.31 (rs17631303, P = 1.4 × 10(-8), HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38) and 4q32.3 (rs4691139, P = 3.4 × 10(-8), HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38). The 4q32.3 locus was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in the general population or BRCA2 carriers, suggesting a BRCA1-specific association. The 17q21.31 locus was also associated with ovarian cancer risk in 8,211 BRCA2 carriers (P = 2×10(-4)). These loci may lead to an improved understanding of the etiology of breast and ovarian tumors in BRCA1 carriers. Based on the joint distribution of the known BRCA1 breast cancer risk-modifying loci, we estimated that the breast cancer lifetime risks for the 5% of BRCA1 carriers at lowest risk are 28%-50% compared to 81%-100% for the 5% at highest risk. Similarly, based on the known ovarian cancer risk-modifying loci, the 5% of BRCA1 carriers at lowest risk have an estimated lifetime risk of developing ovarian cancer of 28% or lower, whereas the 5% at highest risk will have a risk of 63% or higher. Such differences in risk may have important implications for risk prediction and clinical management for BRCA1 carriers. ; The study was supported by NIH grant CA128978, an NCI Specialized Program of Research Excellence (SPORE) in Breast Cancer (CA116201), a U.S. Department of Defense Ovarian Cancer Idea award (W81XWH-10-1-0341), grants from the Breast Cancer Research Foundation and the Komen Foundation for the Cure; Cancer Research UK grants C12292/A11174 and C1287/A10118; the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme grant agreement 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175). Breast Cancer Family Registry Studies (BCFR): supported by the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health under RFA # CA-06-503 and through cooperative agreements with members of the Breast Cancer Family Registry (BCFR) and Principal Investigators, including Cancer Care Ontario (U01 CA69467), Cancer Prevention Institute of California (U01 CA69417), Columbia University (U01 CA69398), Fox Chase Cancer Center (U01 CA69631), Huntsman Cancer Institute (U01 CA69446), and University of Melbourne (U01 CA69638). The Australian BCFR was also supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, the New South Wales Cancer Council, the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (Australia), and the Victorian Breast Cancer Research Consortium. Melissa C. Southey is a NHMRC Senior Research Fellow and a Victorian Breast Cancer Research Consortium Group Leader. Carriers at FCCC were also identified with support from National Institutes of Health grants P01 CA16094 and R01 CA22435. The New York BCFR was also supported by National Institutes of Health grants P30 CA13696 and P30 ES009089. The Utah BCFR was also supported by the National Center for Research Resources and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, NIH grant UL1 RR025764, and by Award Number P30 CA042014 from the National Cancer Institute. Baltic Familial Breast Ovarian Cancer Consortium (BFBOCC): BFBOCC is partly supported by Lithuania (BFBOCC-LT), Research Council of Lithuania grant LIG-19/2010, and Hereditary Cancer Association (Paveldimo vėžio asociacija). ; Latvia (BFBOCC-LV) is partly supported by LSC grant 10.0010.08 and in part by a grant from the ESF Nr.2009/0220/1DP/1.1.1.2.0/09/APIA/VIAA/016.BRCA-gene mutations and breast cancer in South African women (BMBSA): BMBSA was supported by grants from the Cancer Association of South Africa (CANSA) to Elizabeth J. van Rensburg. Beckman Research Institute of the City of Hope (BRICOH): Susan L. Neuhausen was partially supported by the Morris and Horowitz Families Endowed Professorship. BRICOH was supported by NIH R01CA74415 and NIH P30 CA033752. Copenhagen Breast Cancer Study (CBCS): The CBCS study was supported by the NEYE Foundation. Spanish National Cancer Centre (CNIO): This work was partially supported by Spanish Association against Cancer (AECC08), RTICC 06/0020/1060, FISPI08/1120, Mutua Madrileña Foundation (FMMA) and SAF2010-20493. City of Hope Cancer Center (COH): The City of Hope Clinical Cancer Genetics Community Research Network is supported by Award Number RC4A153828 (PI: Jeffrey N. Weitzel) from the National Cancer Institute and the Office of the Director, National Institutes of Health. CONsorzio Studi ITaliani sui Tumori Ereditari Alla Mammella (CONSIT TEAM): CONSIT TEAM was funded by grants from Fondazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (Special Project "Hereditary tumors"), Italian Association for Cancer Research (AIRC, IG 8713), Italian Minitry of Health (Extraordinary National Cancer Program 2006, "Alleanza contro il Cancro" and "Progetto Tumori Femminili), Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (Prin 2008) Centro di Ascolto Donne Operate al Seno (CAOS) association and by funds from Italian citizens who allocated the 5×1000 share of their tax payment in support of the Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, according to Italian laws (INT-Institutional strategic projects '5×1000'). German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ): The DKFZ study was supported by the DKFZ. The Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Research Group Netherlands (HEBON): HEBON is supported by the Dutch Cancer Society grants NKI1998-1854, NKI2004-3088, NKI2007-3756, the NWO grant 91109024, the Pink Ribbon grant 110005, and the BBMRI grant CP46/NWO. ; Epidemiological study of BRCA1 & BRCA2 mutation carriers (EMBRACE): EMBRACE is supported by Cancer Research UK Grants C1287/A10118 and C1287/A11990. D. Gareth Evans and Fiona Lalloo are supported by an NIHR grant to the Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester. The Investigators at The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust are supported by an NIHR grant to the Biomedical Research Centre at The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust. Rosalind A. Eeles and Elizabeth Bancroft are supported by Cancer Research UK Grant C5047/A8385. Fox Chase Cancer Canter (FCCC): The authors acknowledge support from The University of Kansas Cancer Center and the Kansas Bioscience Authority Eminent Scholar Program. Andrew K. Godwin was funded by 5U01CA113916, R01CA140323, and by the Chancellors Distinguished Chair in Biomedical Sciences Professorship. German Consortium of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (GC-HBOC): The German Consortium of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (GC-HBOC) is supported by the German Cancer Aid (grant no 109076, Rita K. Schmutzler) and by the Center for Molecular Medicine Cologne (CMMC). Genetic Modifiers of cancer risk in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers (GEMO): The GEMO study was supported by the Ligue National Contre le Cancer; the Association "Le cancer du sein, parlons-en!" Award and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research for the "CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer" program. Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG): This study was supported by National Cancer Institute grants to the Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG) Administrative Office and Tissue Bank (CA 27469), Statistical and Data Center (CA 37517), and GOG's Cancer Prevention and Control Committtee (CA 101165). Drs. Mark H. Greene and Phuong L. Mai were supported by funding from the Intramural Research Program, NCI, NIH. Hospital Clinico San Carlos (HCSC): HCSC was supported by RETICC 06/0020/0021, FIS research grant 09/00859, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity, and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). ; Helsinki Breast Cancer Study (HEBCS): The HEBCS was financially supported by the Helsinki University Central Hospital Research Fund, Academy of Finland (132473), the Finnish Cancer Society, the Nordic Cancer Union, and the Sigrid Juselius Foundation. Study of Genetic Mutations in Breast and Ovarian Cancer patients in Hong Kong and Asia (HRBCP): HRBCP is supported by The Hong Kong Hereditary Breast Cancer Family Registry and the Dr. Ellen Li Charitable Foundation, Hong Kong. Molecular Genetic Studies of Breast and Ovarian Cancer in Hungary (HUNBOCS): HUNBOCS was supported by Hungarian Research Grant KTIA-OTKA CK-80745 and the Norwegian EEA Financial Mechanism HU0115/NA/2008-3/ÖP-9. Institut Català d'Oncologia (ICO): The ICO study was supported by the Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer, Spanish Health Research Foundation, Ramón Areces Foundation, Carlos III Health Institute, Catalan Health Institute, and Autonomous Government of Catalonia and contract grant numbers: ISCIIIRETIC RD06/0020/1051, PI09/02483, PI10/01422, PI10/00748, 2009SGR290, and 2009SGR283. International Hereditary Cancer Centre (IHCC): Supported by the Polish Foundation of Science. Katarzyna Jaworska is a fellow of International PhD program, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Warsaw Medical University. Iceland Landspitali–University Hospital (ILUH): The ILUH group was supported by the Icelandic Association "Walking for Breast Cancer Research" and by the Landspitali University Hospital Research Fund. INterdisciplinary HEalth Research Internal Team BReast CAncer susceptibility (INHERIT): INHERIT work was supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research for the "CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer" program, the Canadian Breast Cancer Research Alliance grant 019511 and the Ministry of Economic Development, Innovation and Export Trade grant PSR-SIIRI-701. Jacques Simard is Chairholder of the Canada Research Chair in Oncogenetics. ; Istituto Oncologico Veneto (IOVHBOCS): The IOVHBOCS study was supported by Ministero dell'Istruzione, dell'Università e della Ricerca and Ministero della Salute ("Progetto Tumori Femminili" and RFPS 2006-5-341353,ACC2/R6.9"). Kathleen Cuningham Consortium for Research into Familial Breast Cancer (kConFab): kConFab is supported by grants from the National Breast Cancer Foundation and the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and by the Queensland Cancer Fund; the Cancer Councils of New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, and South Australia; and the Cancer Foundation of Western Australia. Amanda B. Spurdle is an NHMRC Senior Research Fellow. The Clinical Follow Up Study was funded from 2001–2009 by NHMRC and currently by the National Breast Cancer Foundation and Cancer Australia #628333. Mayo Clinic (MAYO): MAYO is supported by NIH grant CA128978, an NCI Specialized Program of Research Excellence (SPORE) in Breast Cancer (CA116201), a U.S. Department of Defence Ovarian Cancer Idea award (W81XWH-10-1-0341) and grants from the Breast Cancer Research Foundation and the Komen Foundation for the Cure. McGill University (MCGILL): The McGill Study was supported by Jewish General Hospital Weekend to End Breast Cancer, Quebec Ministry of Economic Development, Innovation, and Export Trade. Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC): The MSKCC study was supported by Breast Cancer Research Foundation, Niehaus Clinical Cancer Genetics Initiative, Andrew Sabin Family Foundation, and Lymphoma Foundation. Modifier Study of Quantitative Effects on Disease (MODSQUAD): MODSQUAD was supported by the European Regional Development Fund and the State Budget of the Czech Republic (RECAMO, CZ.1.05/2.1.00/03.0101). Women's College Research Institute, Toronto (NAROD): NAROD was supported by NIH grant: 1R01 CA149429-01. National Cancer Institute (NCI): Drs. Mark H. Greene and Phuong L. Mai were supported by the Intramural Research Program of the US National Cancer Institute, NIH, and by support services contracts NO2-CP-11019-50 and N02-CP-65504 with Westat, Rockville, MD. National Israeli Cancer Control Center (NICCC): NICCC is supported by Clalit Health Services in Israel. Some of its activities are supported by the Israel Cancer Association and the Breast Cancer Research Foundation (BCRF), NY. N. N. Petrov Institute of Oncology (NNPIO): The NNPIO study has been supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants 11-04-00227, 12-04-00928, and 12-04-01490), the Federal Agency for Science and Innovations, Russia (contract 02.740.11.0780), and through a Royal Society International Joint grant (JP090615). The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center (OSU-CCG): OSUCCG is supported by the Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center. ; South East Asian Breast Cancer Association Study (SEABASS): SEABASS is supported by the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, Ministry of Higher Education (UM.C/HlR/MOHE/06) and Cancer Research Initiatives Foundation. Sheba Medical Centre (SMC): The SMC study was partially funded through a grant by the Israel Cancer Association and the funding for the Israeli Inherited Breast Cancer Consortium. Swedish Breast Cancer Study (SWE-BRCA): SWE-BRCA collaborators are supported by the Swedish Cancer Society. The University of Chicago Center for Clinical Cancer Genetics and Global Health (UCHICAGO): UCHICAGO is supported by grants from the US National Cancer Institute (NIH/NCI) and by the Ralph and Marion Falk Medical Research Trust, the Entertainment Industry Fund National Women's Cancer Research Alliance, and the Breast Cancer Research Foundation. University of California Los Angeles (UCLA): The UCLA study was supported by the Jonsson Comprehensive Cancer Center Foundation and the Breast Cancer Research Foundation. University of California San Francisco (UCSF): The UCSF study was supported by the UCSF Cancer Risk Program and the Helen Diller Family Comprehensive Cancer Center. United Kingdom Familial Ovarian Cancer Registries (UKFOCR): UKFOCR was supported by a project grant from CRUK to Paul Pharoah. University of Pennsylvania (UPENN): The UPENN study was supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) (R01-CA102776 and R01-CA083855), Breast Cancer Research Foundation, Rooney Family Foundation, Susan G. Komen Foundation for the Cure, and the Macdonald Family Foundation. Victorian Familial Cancer Trials Group (VFCTG): The VFCTG study was supported by the Victorian Cancer Agency, Cancer Australia, and National Breast Cancer Foundation. Women's Cancer Research Initiative (WCRI): The WCRI at the Samuel Oschin Comprehensive Cancer Institute, Cedars Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, is funded by the American Cancer Society Early Detection Professorship (SIOP-06-258-01-COUN). ; Peer Reviewed

The African agricultural sector has been neglected by development aid during the last fifty years. It has not undertaken a green revolution, as it happened in Asia. The continent has a great potential for agricultural production but yields and technology adoption are still very low. Moreover many recent threats to food security represent a challenge for future development in Africa. Demographic growth, increase in commodity prices and price volatility, land use pressure and climate change are probably the most latent threats. In such context, it is necessary to develop new patterns of development for African agriculture. Those patterns should draw the consequences from past policies, which either relied on large investments and in favouring a development of the same nature that the one observed in rich or emerging economies. It seems that improving institutions and the environment to foster the evolution of African agriculture would be more adapted than previous strategies that consist in applying the same methods employed in the past. Food security can be achieved by improving rural households' income. Those households is composed by a vast majority of smallholders, for which agricultural production is a major resource for living. The necessary transition for stimulating production in remote areas seem to rely on fostering technology adoption and improve incentives for investments that would increase the productivity or the value added to smallholder production. We study two major organisational changes that are the reforms of cotton sector market structure in sub-Saharan Africa and index-based insurances. In both cases the point is to look at the potential of every organisation choice, reduce vulnerability and its effect, in particular the poverty trap phenomenon. The final objective is improve long run yield by foster investments, in spite of the risks borne by farmers and the tied budget constraint, consequence of the absence of financial (especially credit) markets. The cotton sectors inherited from the institutions of the colonial era, characterised by the concentration in cotton purchasing activities, often made by a parastatal at the national level. Those institutions contributed to generalise cotton production and to the diffusion of new technologies and agricultural practices, especially thanks to the distribution of quality inputs on credit, with future cotton production as collateral. Cotton production and technology adoption were also probably driven by the existence of a minimum guaranteed price set at the beginning of the cultivation season, the investments in infrastructures, research and extension services at the same national level. However, the concentration of the purchasing of cotton also poses some problems, reducing the bargaining power of producers and the proximity of the cotton. We look at the productivity response to cotton sector reforms that took place since 1985 in sub-Saharan Africa using the data from 16 cotton producers on the 1961-2008 period. We compare the performance of those countries with regard to their institutional choices. We first put into perspective the role of pre-reform investments before showing that if reforms may increase yields it could be to the cost of a shrinking area cultivated with cotton. In a second part we study the potential use of meteorological indices to smooth consumption over time and space. Such insurance policies are able to allow quick indemnifications for farmers enduring meteorological shocks. The realisation of the index is independent from the action of the principal and the agent, limiting moral hazard issues and the need for costly damage assessment arising from information asymmetry in traditional insurance contracts. Those insurance however suffer from the limited correlation between the index and the observed yield. We will study the potential of meteorological indices to limit the risk growers face in millet cultivation in Niger and cotton cultivation in Cameroon. We study, in particular, the index choice, the calibration of insurance contract parameters, the necessity of observing the sowing date and the level of basis risk. The large spatial variability of rainfall over the sudano-sahelian zone is a good reason to use such insurance, it however also explain the high level of basis risk of a given index that is observed using a network of rain gauges, itself installed at a cost. We discuss in both cases the relative importance of basis risk and the potential of such insurance to pool yield, and compare them to other risks, such as intra-village yield and price shocks. ; Ce travail de thèse présente l'analyse de deux changements organisationnels dans le cas du secteur agricole en Afrique Subsaharienne. Ce travail est composé de cinq chapitres qui peuvent être regroupés en deux parties distinctes. Dans le premier cas il s'agit de la comparaison et de l'estimation de l'impact de réformes institutionnelles au sein du secteur coton en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Dans le second, de l'étude ex ante d'une innovation organisationnelle récente: les assurances fondées sur des indices météorologiques au sein de la zone soudano-sahélienne. Dans les deux cas ces analyses tentent de répondre à un besoin d'orientation les politiques visant au développement du secteur agricole en Afrique de l'Ouest et plus particulièrement à la question de l'accès au marché du crédit et de l'assurance pour les producteurs, nécessaire pour dépasser le stade de l'agriculture de subsistance (de Janvry et Sadoulet, 2011). Dans le premier chapitre, je passe en revue les réformes des filières cotonnières qui ont eu lieu en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Je construis trois indices synthétiques de libéralisation: la présence de capitaux privés et le degré de concurrence entre égreneurs ainsi que la flexibilité des prix au cours de la campagne. Ceci nous permet de construire et de valider la base de données utilisée dans le second chapitre. Nous montrons d'abord que les deux vagues de réformes ont été très différentes. La première concerne les pays anglophones, dont le secteur cotonnier a été libéralisé entre 1985 et 1995. La seconde (après 1995) concerne les pays francophones d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre. Nous montrons que ces dernières reposent plus sur une régulation de la filière, conservant de nombreuses caractéristiques des filières intégrées issue de la colonisation, contrairement aux réformes de la première vague de libéralisation. Tout d'abord, la concurrence établie n'est pas réelle puisque l'on voit l'installation de monopsones territoriaux d'égreneurs: les pays étant, dans la plupart des cas, divisés en zones d'opération pour chacun d'eux. Ensuite, les prix d'achat du coton sont encore fixés au semis et garantis jusque la récolte, absorbant les variations intra-saisonnières du prix international. Finalement on observe une rémanence du secteur privé, bien que des parts des sociétés cotonnières soient cédées au privé. Dans un second chapitre nous étudions l'impact de ces réformes sur la performance du secteur du coton dans les 16 principaux producteurs d'Afriques Sub-Saharienne en 2008. Nous utilisons pour cela des données de panel, issu de la FAO, appariées sur la période 1961-2008 à des données météorologiques mensuelles en grille (CRU TS3.1) considérées sur la période de croissance du coton, ce pour chaque année et chaque pays. Chaque cellule de la grille étant pondérée par la densité des surfaces cultivées en coton sur l'ensemble des territoires nationaux. Nous comparons les pays n'ayant pas réformé aux pays ayant régulé, installé une concurrence faible ou encore une concurrence forte. Nous montrons que les réformes menant à une régulation et à une forte concurrence ont un impact significatif sur les surfaces cultivées et les rendements. Ces résultats semblent validés par une estimation du potentiel biais de sélection, source limité d'endogéneité et robustes aux deux spécifications choisies: la première exploitant la dimension dynamique du panel (méthode des moments généralisés, dite GMM) et la seconde étant une analyse en différence de différences (moindres carrés avec effets fixes). Nous montrons d'abord que les réformes tendent à augmenter les rendements, hormis les réformes menant vers un faible niveau de concurrence, pour lequel l'effet des réformes n'est pas significatif. Les pays ayant régulé leur secteur cotonniers ont vu une croissance des surfaces semées en coton après les réformes. Les réformes menant à une forte compétition ont en revanche eu un impact négatif sur les surfaces cultivées, ce qui tend à valider l'approche institutionnelle qui suppose que le crédit aux intrants au semis, sans autre garantie que le coton récolté en fin de campagne, nécessite une relation de coordination qui est mise à mal par la concurrence. De même, comme le montre la littérature sur le sujet (Brambilla et Porto, 2011), il est possible qu'un effet de sélection ait opéré dans ces secteurs les plus concurrentiels, menant à limiter le nombre de producteurs cultivant du coton, aux dépend des producteurs les moins productifs, n'ayant pas accès aux marchés du crédit et de l'assurance. Dans le troisième chapitre nous réalisons une revue de la littérature sur les assurances indi- cielles, recensant les expériences dans les pays en développement, les méthodes sous-jacentes et les questions de recherche qui en découlent. Nous étudions finalement dans les chapitre 4 et 5 le potentiel de telles assurances dans deux cas spécifiques: le mil au Sud-Ouest du Niger et le coton au Nord du Cameroun. Ces assurances constituent une alternative intéressante aux assurances agricoles traditionnelles, coûteuses en raison de l'asymétrie d'information qui les caractérisent et de la nécessité de constater les dommages effectifs. Dans les deux cas nous montrons d'abord qu'accroître la complexité des indices pour mieux appréhender l'impact de la pluviométrie sur les rendements ne semble pas nécessaire. Les résultats, robustes à la cross-validation, corrigeant l'effet de la sur-identification (over-fitting) montre en effets que les gains de l'assurance sont relativement limités, mais surtout qu'il ne sont pas accrus par l'utilisation d'indices plus sophistiqués. Nous montrons aussi, dans le cas du mil, que la prise en compte de la forte variation des rendements au sein du même village est significative et qu'elle joue un rôle important dans le cas d'une fonction utilité concave. Les parcelles cultivées étant situées à moins de 3 kilomètres de la station météorologique, ce risque de base est bien dû à la présence de chocs idiosyncratiques (maladies, ravageurs.) ou à l'hétérogénéité des agents et des parcelles et non à un choc météorologique. Ce résultat tend à montrer que l'existence de ce risque de base résiduel, peut limiter la demande pour ce type d'assurance, en présence d'aversion pour le risque. Il s'inscrit dans la suite des travaux de Clarke (2011) qui montre que l'absence d'indemnisation, en cas de mauvais rendements, peut rendre l'assurance désavantageuse du fait du paiement de la prime (ce que j'appelle une erreur de type I). Ces résultats doivent être interprétés à la lumière du faible intérêt des producteurs pour ce genre de produits observés dans les récentes, mais néanmoins nombreuses, études ex post. Finalement, toujours dans ce premier cas, l'utilisation de données sur des parcelles fertilisées permet de montrer que ces résultats ne sont pas radicalement modifiés par la prise en compte d'une potentielle intensification des cultures, rendant pourtant la culture de mil plus risquée, et donc l'assurance plus intéressante. Dans le second cas, le coton, nous utilisons d'abord une expérimentation de terrain mettant en œuvre des jeux de loteries (inspiré de Holt et Laury, 2002), pour estimer la distribution des paramètres d'aversion pour le risque des producteurs. Nous montrons d'abord que, dans ce cas, l'effet de l'imparfaite corrélation des rendements et de l'indice météorologique choisi sur le gain en équivalent certain des producteurs, est significatif. C'est en particulier le cas dans les zones les plus humides ou montrant un climat spécifique. Contrairement au cas du mil au Niger, assurer les producteurs de coton semble nécessiter l'observation de la date de semis, dont le simulation ne semble pas nécessaire ou inadéquate vu les contraintes institutionnelles du secteur (comme par exemple les retards de livraison de graines et d'intrants). Nous remarquons ensuite que l'échelle d'étude étant plus importante dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, l'assurance risque de mener à des péréquations non désirées, par exemple des zone les plus humides envers les zones plus arides. Finalement nous observons, dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, que le gain apporté par la stabilisation des rendements est similaire, voire inférieur, à celui apporté par la stabilisation intra-saisonnière des prix qui a lieu aujourd'hui dans la filière Camerounaise intégrée (la Sodecoton détenant le monopole d'achat du coton graine au Cameroun). En effet, en annonçant le prix de vente au moment du semis, la société offre implicitement aux producteurs une assurance contre les variations du prix international au cours de la campagne. J'ai donc montré certaines limites intrinsèques aux mécanismes d'assurance fondés sur des indices météorologiques, en dépit de l'appréhension de la forte variabilité spatiale qui caractérise le climat soudano-sahélien au sein duquel les deux terrains se situent. Nous disposons en effet, dans les deux cas, d'une densité de stations météorologiques unique dans la région permettant de limiter le risque de base spatial. Ces résultats ne prennent toutefois pas en compte les effets indirects de l'assurance qui, lorsqu'elle est offerte conjointement avec un crédit aux intrants, peut baisser le prix de ce dernier, en limitant la probabilité de défaut en cas de sécheresse. J'ai par ailleurs aussi montré l'importance de l'accès au crédit pour les producteurs de coton ainsi que l'intérêt de la couverture contre le risque de variation du prix international dans le cas des cultures de rentes.

The African agricultural sector has been neglected by development aid during the last fifty years. It has not undertaken a green revolution, as it happened in Asia. The continent has a great potential for agricultural production but yields and technology adoption are still very low. Moreover many recent threats to food security represent a challenge for future development in Africa. Demographic growth, increase in commodity prices and price volatility, land use pressure and climate change are probably the most latent threats. In such context, it is necessary to develop new patterns of development for African agriculture. Those patterns should draw the consequences from past policies, which either relied on large investments and in favouring a development of the same nature that the one observed in rich or emerging economies. It seems that improving institutions and the environment to foster the evolution of African agriculture would be more adapted than previous strategies that consist in applying the same methods employed in the past. Food security can be achieved by improving rural households' income. Those households is composed by a vast majority of smallholders, for which agricultural production is a major resource for living. The necessary transition for stimulating production in remote areas seem to rely on fostering technology adoption and improve incentives for investments that would increase the productivity or the value added to smallholder production. We study two major organisational changes that are the reforms of cotton sector market structure in sub-Saharan Africa and index-based insurances. In both cases the point is to look at the potential of every organisation choice, reduce vulnerability and its effect, in particular the poverty trap phenomenon. The final objective is improve long run yield by foster investments, in spite of the risks borne by farmers and the tied budget constraint, consequence of the absence of financial (especially credit) markets. The cotton sectors inherited from the institutions of the colonial era, characterised by the concentration in cotton purchasing activities, often made by a parastatal at the national level. Those institutions contributed to generalise cotton production and to the diffusion of new technologies and agricultural practices, especially thanks to the distribution of quality inputs on credit, with future cotton production as collateral. Cotton production and technology adoption were also probably driven by the existence of a minimum guaranteed price set at the beginning of the cultivation season, the investments in infrastructures, research and extension services at the same national level. However, the concentration of the purchasing of cotton also poses some problems, reducing the bargaining power of producers and the proximity of the cotton. We look at the productivity response to cotton sector reforms that took place since 1985 in sub-Saharan Africa using the data from 16 cotton producers on the 1961-2008 period. We compare the performance of those countries with regard to their institutional choices. We first put into perspective the role of pre-reform investments before showing that if reforms may increase yields it could be to the cost of a shrinking area cultivated with cotton. In a second part we study the potential use of meteorological indices to smooth consumption over time and space. Such insurance policies are able to allow quick indemnifications for farmers enduring meteorological shocks. The realisation of the index is independent from the action of the principal and the agent, limiting moral hazard issues and the need for costly damage assessment arising from information asymmetry in traditional insurance contracts. Those insurance however suffer from the limited correlation between the index and the observed yield. We will study the potential of meteorological indices to limit the risk growers face in millet cultivation in Niger and cotton cultivation in Cameroon. We study, in particular, the index choice, the calibration of insurance contract parameters, the necessity of observing the sowing date and the level of basis risk. The large spatial variability of rainfall over the sudano-sahelian zone is a good reason to use such insurance, it however also explain the high level of basis risk of a given index that is observed using a network of rain gauges, itself installed at a cost. We discuss in both cases the relative importance of basis risk and the potential of such insurance to pool yield, and compare them to other risks, such as intra-village yield and price shocks. ; Ce travail de thèse présente l'analyse de deux changements organisationnels dans le cas du secteur agricole en Afrique Subsaharienne. Ce travail est composé de cinq chapitres qui peuvent être regroupés en deux parties distinctes. Dans le premier cas il s'agit de la comparaison et de l'estimation de l'impact de réformes institutionnelles au sein du secteur coton en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Dans le second, de l'étude ex ante d'une innovation organisationnelle récente: les assurances fondées sur des indices météorologiques au sein de la zone soudano-sahélienne. Dans les deux cas ces analyses tentent de répondre à un besoin d'orientation les politiques visant au développement du secteur agricole en Afrique de l'Ouest et plus particulièrement à la question de l'accès au marché du crédit et de l'assurance pour les producteurs, nécessaire pour dépasser le stade de l'agriculture de subsistance (de Janvry et Sadoulet, 2011). Dans le premier chapitre, je passe en revue les réformes des filières cotonnières qui ont eu lieu en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Je construis trois indices synthétiques de libéralisation: la présence de capitaux privés et le degré de concurrence entre égreneurs ainsi que la flexibilité des prix au cours de la campagne. Ceci nous permet de construire et de valider la base de données utilisée dans le second chapitre. Nous montrons d'abord que les deux vagues de réformes ont été très différentes. La première concerne les pays anglophones, dont le secteur cotonnier a été libéralisé entre 1985 et 1995. La seconde (après 1995) concerne les pays francophones d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre. Nous montrons que ces dernières reposent plus sur une régulation de la filière, conservant de nombreuses caractéristiques des filières intégrées issue de la colonisation, contrairement aux réformes de la première vague de libéralisation. Tout d'abord, la concurrence établie n'est pas réelle puisque l'on voit l'installation de monopsones territoriaux d'égreneurs: les pays étant, dans la plupart des cas, divisés en zones d'opération pour chacun d'eux. Ensuite, les prix d'achat du coton sont encore fixés au semis et garantis jusque la récolte, absorbant les variations intra-saisonnières du prix international. Finalement on observe une rémanence du secteur privé, bien que des parts des sociétés cotonnières soient cédées au privé. Dans un second chapitre nous étudions l'impact de ces réformes sur la performance du secteur du coton dans les 16 principaux producteurs d'Afriques Sub-Saharienne en 2008. Nous utilisons pour cela des données de panel, issu de la FAO, appariées sur la période 1961-2008 à des données météorologiques mensuelles en grille (CRU TS3.1) considérées sur la période de croissance du coton, ce pour chaque année et chaque pays. Chaque cellule de la grille étant pondérée par la densité des surfaces cultivées en coton sur l'ensemble des territoires nationaux. Nous comparons les pays n'ayant pas réformé aux pays ayant régulé, installé une concurrence faible ou encore une concurrence forte. Nous montrons que les réformes menant à une régulation et à une forte concurrence ont un impact significatif sur les surfaces cultivées et les rendements. Ces résultats semblent validés par une estimation du potentiel biais de sélection, source limité d'endogéneité et robustes aux deux spécifications choisies: la première exploitant la dimension dynamique du panel (méthode des moments généralisés, dite GMM) et la seconde étant une analyse en différence de différences (moindres carrés avec effets fixes). Nous montrons d'abord que les réformes tendent à augmenter les rendements, hormis les réformes menant vers un faible niveau de concurrence, pour lequel l'effet des réformes n'est pas significatif. Les pays ayant régulé leur secteur cotonniers ont vu une croissance des surfaces semées en coton après les réformes. Les réformes menant à une forte compétition ont en revanche eu un impact négatif sur les surfaces cultivées, ce qui tend à valider l'approche institutionnelle qui suppose que le crédit aux intrants au semis, sans autre garantie que le coton récolté en fin de campagne, nécessite une relation de coordination qui est mise à mal par la concurrence. De même, comme le montre la littérature sur le sujet (Brambilla et Porto, 2011), il est possible qu'un effet de sélection ait opéré dans ces secteurs les plus concurrentiels, menant à limiter le nombre de producteurs cultivant du coton, aux dépend des producteurs les moins productifs, n'ayant pas accès aux marchés du crédit et de l'assurance. Dans le troisième chapitre nous réalisons une revue de la littérature sur les assurances indi- cielles, recensant les expériences dans les pays en développement, les méthodes sous-jacentes et les questions de recherche qui en découlent. Nous étudions finalement dans les chapitre 4 et 5 le potentiel de telles assurances dans deux cas spécifiques: le mil au Sud-Ouest du Niger et le coton au Nord du Cameroun. Ces assurances constituent une alternative intéressante aux assurances agricoles traditionnelles, coûteuses en raison de l'asymétrie d'information qui les caractérisent et de la nécessité de constater les dommages effectifs. Dans les deux cas nous montrons d'abord qu'accroître la complexité des indices pour mieux appréhender l'impact de la pluviométrie sur les rendements ne semble pas nécessaire. Les résultats, robustes à la cross-validation, corrigeant l'effet de la sur-identification (over-fitting) montre en effets que les gains de l'assurance sont relativement limités, mais surtout qu'il ne sont pas accrus par l'utilisation d'indices plus sophistiqués. Nous montrons aussi, dans le cas du mil, que la prise en compte de la forte variation des rendements au sein du même village est significative et qu'elle joue un rôle important dans le cas d'une fonction utilité concave. Les parcelles cultivées étant situées à moins de 3 kilomètres de la station météorologique, ce risque de base est bien dû à la présence de chocs idiosyncratiques (maladies, ravageurs.) ou à l'hétérogénéité des agents et des parcelles et non à un choc météorologique. Ce résultat tend à montrer que l'existence de ce risque de base résiduel, peut limiter la demande pour ce type d'assurance, en présence d'aversion pour le risque. Il s'inscrit dans la suite des travaux de Clarke (2011) qui montre que l'absence d'indemnisation, en cas de mauvais rendements, peut rendre l'assurance désavantageuse du fait du paiement de la prime (ce que j'appelle une erreur de type I). Ces résultats doivent être interprétés à la lumière du faible intérêt des producteurs pour ce genre de produits observés dans les récentes, mais néanmoins nombreuses, études ex post. Finalement, toujours dans ce premier cas, l'utilisation de données sur des parcelles fertilisées permet de montrer que ces résultats ne sont pas radicalement modifiés par la prise en compte d'une potentielle intensification des cultures, rendant pourtant la culture de mil plus risquée, et donc l'assurance plus intéressante. Dans le second cas, le coton, nous utilisons d'abord une expérimentation de terrain mettant en œuvre des jeux de loteries (inspiré de Holt et Laury, 2002), pour estimer la distribution des paramètres d'aversion pour le risque des producteurs. Nous montrons d'abord que, dans ce cas, l'effet de l'imparfaite corrélation des rendements et de l'indice météorologique choisi sur le gain en équivalent certain des producteurs, est significatif. C'est en particulier le cas dans les zones les plus humides ou montrant un climat spécifique. Contrairement au cas du mil au Niger, assurer les producteurs de coton semble nécessiter l'observation de la date de semis, dont le simulation ne semble pas nécessaire ou inadéquate vu les contraintes institutionnelles du secteur (comme par exemple les retards de livraison de graines et d'intrants). Nous remarquons ensuite que l'échelle d'étude étant plus importante dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, l'assurance risque de mener à des péréquations non désirées, par exemple des zone les plus humides envers les zones plus arides. Finalement nous observons, dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, que le gain apporté par la stabilisation des rendements est similaire, voire inférieur, à celui apporté par la stabilisation intra-saisonnière des prix qui a lieu aujourd'hui dans la filière Camerounaise intégrée (la Sodecoton détenant le monopole d'achat du coton graine au Cameroun). En effet, en annonçant le prix de vente au moment du semis, la société offre implicitement aux producteurs une assurance contre les variations du prix international au cours de la campagne. J'ai donc montré certaines limites intrinsèques aux mécanismes d'assurance fondés sur des indices météorologiques, en dépit de l'appréhension de la forte variabilité spatiale qui caractérise le climat soudano-sahélien au sein duquel les deux terrains se situent. Nous disposons en effet, dans les deux cas, d'une densité de stations météorologiques unique dans la région permettant de limiter le risque de base spatial. Ces résultats ne prennent toutefois pas en compte les effets indirects de l'assurance qui, lorsqu'elle est offerte conjointement avec un crédit aux intrants, peut baisser le prix de ce dernier, en limitant la probabilité de défaut en cas de sécheresse. J'ai par ailleurs aussi montré l'importance de l'accès au crédit pour les producteurs de coton ainsi que l'intérêt de la couverture contre le risque de variation du prix international dans le cas des cultures de rentes.

The African agricultural sector has been neglected by development aid during the last fifty years. It has not undertaken a green revolution, as it happened in Asia. The continent has a great potential for agricultural production but yields and technology adoption are still very low. Moreover many recent threats to food security represent a challenge for future development in Africa. Demographic growth, increase in commodity prices and price volatility, land use pressure and climate change are probably the most latent threats. In such context, it is necessary to develop new patterns of development for African agriculture. Those patterns should draw the consequences from past policies, which either relied on large investments and in favouring a development of the same nature that the one observed in rich or emerging economies. It seems that improving institutions and the environment to foster the evolution of African agriculture would be more adapted than previous strategies that consist in applying the same methods employed in the past. Food security can be achieved by improving rural households' income. Those households is composed by a vast majority of smallholders, for which agricultural production is a major resource for living. The necessary transition for stimulating production in remote areas seem to rely on fostering technology adoption and improve incentives for investments that would increase the productivity or the value added to smallholder production. We study two major organisational changes that are the reforms of cotton sector market structure in sub-Saharan Africa and index-based insurances. In both cases the point is to look at the potential of every organisation choice, reduce vulnerability and its effect, in particular the poverty trap phenomenon. The final objective is improve long run yield by foster investments, in spite of the risks borne by farmers and the tied budget constraint, consequence of the absence of financial (especially credit) markets. The cotton sectors inherited from the institutions of the colonial era, characterised by the concentration in cotton purchasing activities, often made by a parastatal at the national level. Those institutions contributed to generalise cotton production and to the diffusion of new technologies and agricultural practices, especially thanks to the distribution of quality inputs on credit, with future cotton production as collateral. Cotton production and technology adoption were also probably driven by the existence of a minimum guaranteed price set at the beginning of the cultivation season, the investments in infrastructures, research and extension services at the same national level. However, the concentration of the purchasing of cotton also poses some problems, reducing the bargaining power of producers and the proximity of the cotton. We look at the productivity response to cotton sector reforms that took place since 1985 in sub-Saharan Africa using the data from 16 cotton producers on the 1961-2008 period. We compare the performance of those countries with regard to their institutional choices. We first put into perspective the role of pre-reform investments before showing that if reforms may increase yields it could be to the cost of a shrinking area cultivated with cotton. In a second part we study the potential use of meteorological indices to smooth consumption over time and space. Such insurance policies are able to allow quick indemnifications for farmers enduring meteorological shocks. The realisation of the index is independent from the action of the principal and the agent, limiting moral hazard issues and the need for costly damage assessment arising from information asymmetry in traditional insurance contracts. Those insurance however suffer from the limited correlation between the index and the observed yield. We will study the potential of meteorological indices to limit the risk growers face in millet cultivation in Niger and cotton cultivation in Cameroon. We study, in particular, the index choice, the calibration of insurance contract parameters, the necessity of observing the sowing date and the level of basis risk. The large spatial variability of rainfall over the sudano-sahelian zone is a good reason to use such insurance, it however also explain the high level of basis risk of a given index that is observed using a network of rain gauges, itself installed at a cost. We discuss in both cases the relative importance of basis risk and the potential of such insurance to pool yield, and compare them to other risks, such as intra-village yield and price shocks. ; Ce travail de thèse présente l'analyse de deux changements organisationnels dans le cas du secteur agricole en Afrique Subsaharienne. Ce travail est composé de cinq chapitres qui peuvent être regroupés en deux parties distinctes. Dans le premier cas il s'agit de la comparaison et de l'estimation de l'impact de réformes institutionnelles au sein du secteur coton en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Dans le second, de l'étude ex ante d'une innovation organisationnelle récente: les assurances fondées sur des indices météorologiques au sein de la zone soudano-sahélienne. Dans les deux cas ces analyses tentent de répondre à un besoin d'orientation les politiques visant au développement du secteur agricole en Afrique de l'Ouest et plus particulièrement à la question de l'accès au marché du crédit et de l'assurance pour les producteurs, nécessaire pour dépasser le stade de l'agriculture de subsistance (de Janvry et Sadoulet, 2011). Dans le premier chapitre, je passe en revue les réformes des filières cotonnières qui ont eu lieu en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Je construis trois indices synthétiques de libéralisation: la présence de capitaux privés et le degré de concurrence entre égreneurs ainsi que la flexibilité des prix au cours de la campagne. Ceci nous permet de construire et de valider la base de données utilisée dans le second chapitre. Nous montrons d'abord que les deux vagues de réformes ont été très différentes. La première concerne les pays anglophones, dont le secteur cotonnier a été libéralisé entre 1985 et 1995. La seconde (après 1995) concerne les pays francophones d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre. Nous montrons que ces dernières reposent plus sur une régulation de la filière, conservant de nombreuses caractéristiques des filières intégrées issue de la colonisation, contrairement aux réformes de la première vague de libéralisation. Tout d'abord, la concurrence établie n'est pas réelle puisque l'on voit l'installation de monopsones territoriaux d'égreneurs: les pays étant, dans la plupart des cas, divisés en zones d'opération pour chacun d'eux. Ensuite, les prix d'achat du coton sont encore fixés au semis et garantis jusque la récolte, absorbant les variations intra-saisonnières du prix international. Finalement on observe une rémanence du secteur privé, bien que des parts des sociétés cotonnières soient cédées au privé. Dans un second chapitre nous étudions l'impact de ces réformes sur la performance du secteur du coton dans les 16 principaux producteurs d'Afriques Sub-Saharienne en 2008. Nous utilisons pour cela des données de panel, issu de la FAO, appariées sur la période 1961-2008 à des données météorologiques mensuelles en grille (CRU TS3.1) considérées sur la période de croissance du coton, ce pour chaque année et chaque pays. Chaque cellule de la grille étant pondérée par la densité des surfaces cultivées en coton sur l'ensemble des territoires nationaux. Nous comparons les pays n'ayant pas réformé aux pays ayant régulé, installé une concurrence faible ou encore une concurrence forte. Nous montrons que les réformes menant à une régulation et à une forte concurrence ont un impact significatif sur les surfaces cultivées et les rendements. Ces résultats semblent validés par une estimation du potentiel biais de sélection, source limité d'endogéneité et robustes aux deux spécifications choisies: la première exploitant la dimension dynamique du panel (méthode des moments généralisés, dite GMM) et la seconde étant une analyse en différence de différences (moindres carrés avec effets fixes). Nous montrons d'abord que les réformes tendent à augmenter les rendements, hormis les réformes menant vers un faible niveau de concurrence, pour lequel l'effet des réformes n'est pas significatif. Les pays ayant régulé leur secteur cotonniers ont vu une croissance des surfaces semées en coton après les réformes. Les réformes menant à une forte compétition ont en revanche eu un impact négatif sur les surfaces cultivées, ce qui tend à valider l'approche institutionnelle qui suppose que le crédit aux intrants au semis, sans autre garantie que le coton récolté en fin de campagne, nécessite une relation de coordination qui est mise à mal par la concurrence. De même, comme le montre la littérature sur le sujet (Brambilla et Porto, 2011), il est possible qu'un effet de sélection ait opéré dans ces secteurs les plus concurrentiels, menant à limiter le nombre de producteurs cultivant du coton, aux dépend des producteurs les moins productifs, n'ayant pas accès aux marchés du crédit et de l'assurance. Dans le troisième chapitre nous réalisons une revue de la littérature sur les assurances indi- cielles, recensant les expériences dans les pays en développement, les méthodes sous-jacentes et les questions de recherche qui en découlent. Nous étudions finalement dans les chapitre 4 et 5 le potentiel de telles assurances dans deux cas spécifiques: le mil au Sud-Ouest du Niger et le coton au Nord du Cameroun. Ces assurances constituent une alternative intéressante aux assurances agricoles traditionnelles, coûteuses en raison de l'asymétrie d'information qui les caractérisent et de la nécessité de constater les dommages effectifs. Dans les deux cas nous montrons d'abord qu'accroître la complexité des indices pour mieux appréhender l'impact de la pluviométrie sur les rendements ne semble pas nécessaire. Les résultats, robustes à la cross-validation, corrigeant l'effet de la sur-identification (over-fitting) montre en effets que les gains de l'assurance sont relativement limités, mais surtout qu'il ne sont pas accrus par l'utilisation d'indices plus sophistiqués. Nous montrons aussi, dans le cas du mil, que la prise en compte de la forte variation des rendements au sein du même village est significative et qu'elle joue un rôle important dans le cas d'une fonction utilité concave. Les parcelles cultivées étant situées à moins de 3 kilomètres de la station météorologique, ce risque de base est bien dû à la présence de chocs idiosyncratiques (maladies, ravageurs.) ou à l'hétérogénéité des agents et des parcelles et non à un choc météorologique. Ce résultat tend à montrer que l'existence de ce risque de base résiduel, peut limiter la demande pour ce type d'assurance, en présence d'aversion pour le risque. Il s'inscrit dans la suite des travaux de Clarke (2011) qui montre que l'absence d'indemnisation, en cas de mauvais rendements, peut rendre l'assurance désavantageuse du fait du paiement de la prime (ce que j'appelle une erreur de type I). Ces résultats doivent être interprétés à la lumière du faible intérêt des producteurs pour ce genre de produits observés dans les récentes, mais néanmoins nombreuses, études ex post. Finalement, toujours dans ce premier cas, l'utilisation de données sur des parcelles fertilisées permet de montrer que ces résultats ne sont pas radicalement modifiés par la prise en compte d'une potentielle intensification des cultures, rendant pourtant la culture de mil plus risquée, et donc l'assurance plus intéressante. Dans le second cas, le coton, nous utilisons d'abord une expérimentation de terrain mettant en œuvre des jeux de loteries (inspiré de Holt et Laury, 2002), pour estimer la distribution des paramètres d'aversion pour le risque des producteurs. Nous montrons d'abord que, dans ce cas, l'effet de l'imparfaite corrélation des rendements et de l'indice météorologique choisi sur le gain en équivalent certain des producteurs, est significatif. C'est en particulier le cas dans les zones les plus humides ou montrant un climat spécifique. Contrairement au cas du mil au Niger, assurer les producteurs de coton semble nécessiter l'observation de la date de semis, dont le simulation ne semble pas nécessaire ou inadéquate vu les contraintes institutionnelles du secteur (comme par exemple les retards de livraison de graines et d'intrants). Nous remarquons ensuite que l'échelle d'étude étant plus importante dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, l'assurance risque de mener à des péréquations non désirées, par exemple des zone les plus humides envers les zones plus arides. Finalement nous observons, dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, que le gain apporté par la stabilisation des rendements est similaire, voire inférieur, à celui apporté par la stabilisation intra-saisonnière des prix qui a lieu aujourd'hui dans la filière Camerounaise intégrée (la Sodecoton détenant le monopole d'achat du coton graine au Cameroun). En effet, en annonçant le prix de vente au moment du semis, la société offre implicitement aux producteurs une assurance contre les variations du prix international au cours de la campagne. J'ai donc montré certaines limites intrinsèques aux mécanismes d'assurance fondés sur des indices météorologiques, en dépit de l'appréhension de la forte variabilité spatiale qui caractérise le climat soudano-sahélien au sein duquel les deux terrains se situent. Nous disposons en effet, dans les deux cas, d'une densité de stations météorologiques unique dans la région permettant de limiter le risque de base spatial. Ces résultats ne prennent toutefois pas en compte les effets indirects de l'assurance qui, lorsqu'elle est offerte conjointement avec un crédit aux intrants, peut baisser le prix de ce dernier, en limitant la probabilité de défaut en cas de sécheresse. J'ai par ailleurs aussi montré l'importance de l'accès au crédit pour les producteurs de coton ainsi que l'intérêt de la couverture contre le risque de variation du prix international dans le cas des cultures de rentes.

List of Figures. List of Tables. List of Contributors. Acknowledgements. Part I Introduction 1. Refugees: Status, Conditions and their Future Part II Constitution and Refugees 2. Genealogies of Discourse: Updating the National Register of Citizens in Assam 3. The State of Being Stateless: Examining and Evaluating the Grounds of Exclusion in Assam's NRC Exercise through Class and Gender 4. The Citizen Determination Process in India (including the citizenship Amendment Bill 2016) and the Ensuing Refugee Crisis 5. Exclusionary Trends in the Indian Citizenship Regime Part III Refugee Law and Policy 6. Exploring Refugee Lives in India Through the Lens of Legal Pluralism 7. Rohingya Refugees in India: Governmental and Judicial Attitude 8. India's Refugee Law and Politics of Hospitality since Independence 9. Discourse around the Refugee Protection Paradigm in India 10. International Refugee Law and the Indian State: Contested Law and Refugee Life between 'Two States" 11. India's Refugee Protection Obligations beyond the 1951 Refugee Convention and the 1967 Protocol 12. The Refugee Convention of 1951: India's Persisting Dilemma 13. Reimagining Refugee Protection in India vis-à-vis Global Compact on Refugees Part IV Statelessness 14. Statelessness and the Indian State: National Belonging and the Right of Space 15. Stateless in India: Institutionalizing Home-Grown Solutions 16. Stateless among the Refugees 17. Refugees, Asylum Seekers and Stateless Citizens Part V Refugees 18. The Life of Labels: Refugees, Displaced Persons and Migrants 19. Between Host and Home: Cultural Lives and Activism of refugees 20. Refugees and Sustainable Development Goals: An Insight 21. Socio-Demographic Profile of Forced Migration 22. Resilience and Coping Mechanisms of Refugee Communities 23. Education and Lifelong Learning for Refugees: Equity and Inclusion in Policy and Practice 24. Conservation of Resources and Post-migration Stress Part VI Jewish Refugees 25. The History of Refugee Jewish Migration Part VII Rohingya Refugees 26. Rohingya Refugees in India 27. Living Conditions of Rohingya in India 28. The Rohingya Refugees in Hyderabad 29. The Perpetual Exceptions to Rights: Rohingya in India 30. Statelessness-Citizenship Continuum: The Rohingya's Quest for Belonging and Surviving 31. Autonomy and Dignity of the Rohingya Woman 32. Human Security: A Solution-based Approach to the Rohingya Refugee Policy 33. India's Response towards the Rohingya Crisis 34. Rohingya Refugees and Myanmar: State, Citizenship and Human Rights 35. Rohinya Refugees in Jammu: Analysis of Socio-economic and Demographic Conditions Part VIII Sindhi Refugees 36. Cartographies of Sindh: Religion, Region, Language 37. Resettlement Experiences of Sindhi Women Refugees Post-Partition Part IX Pakistani and Bangladeshi Hindu Refugees 38. Locating Pakistani Nationals in India: Challenges and Responses 39. A Pakistani Hindu Demographic Survey, Western Rajasthan 40. Livelihood Strategies: Pakistani Hindu Refugees in Rajasthan 41. Bengali Hindu Refugees in the Andaman Islands Part X Tibetan Refugees 42. The Privileged Refugees: Questions on Tibetan Nationality and Citizenship 43. Education of Tibetan Refugees: Sowing Future Seeds of Tibet 44. Making of a Mediatized Tibetan Diaspora in the 21st century 45. Household Economy and Livelihood Strategies among Tibetan Refugees Part XI Sri Lankan Refugees 46. Resolution of the Sri Lankan Refugee Dilemma 47. At the margins: Tamil refugee women in camps in Tamil Nadu 48. Sri Lankan Tamil Refugees: A Voiceless, Undignified Existence 49. Life of Sri Lankan Refugee Women in the Camps of Tamil Nadu 50. A synthesis of studies examining Sri Lankan Refugee families in India 51. Life-Livelihood-Dignity model of rehabilitation for Sri Lankan Refugees 52. The Contribution of Forced Colonial Migration to the Refugee Crisis: A Focus on Indian Origin Tamil Refugees from Sri Lanka 53. Repatriates and Refugees in Tamil Nadu: Learning to Live in Colonies and Camps 54. Spatial Dimensions in Narratives of History: Sri Lankan Repatriates on Katchal and Little Andaman Part XII Afghan Refugees 55. Gendered Refugee Experience: The Case of Afghan Women Refugees 56. Cast Away: Understanding Experiences of Afghan Hindu, Sikh and Christian Refugees Part XIII Emerging Issues 57. Tibetan Community in Exile: A Model for Other Refugee Groups 58. Pushbacks at Borders 59. The Economic Status of Sri Lankan and Tibetan Refugees in India 60. Afghans Refugees in the Higher Education System in Delhi 61. Agony of Survival: Refugees and Marginality in India during COVID-19 62. From Frames of Victimhood to that of Othering: Mapping Media Representations of Refugees 63. Media Representation of Rohingya Refugees 64. Healthcare for Refugees in India: A Humanitarian Approachtowards Public Health for All 65. The Global Compact on Refugees and the Global Compact for Migration: A Grand Experiment. Index.

Introduction: Demarcating the field of local media and journalism / Agnes Gulyas and David Baines -- Historicising the after-life, local newspapers in the United Kingdom and the 'art of prognosis' / Rachel Matthews -- A history of the local newspaper in Japan / Anthony S. Rausch -- Local news deserts in Brazil : historical and contemporary perspectives / Carlos Eduardo Lins da Silva and Angela Pimenta -- History of local media in Norway / Eli Skogerbø -- State of play : Local media, power and society in the Caribbean / Juliette Marie Storr -- 'Peopleization' of news : the development of the American television news format / Madeleine Liseblad -- The death of broadcast localism in the United States / Christopher Ali -- Developing local media policies in sub-state nations : the case of Catalonia / Mariola Tarrega and Josep Guimerà -- Local journalism in Australia : Policy debates / Kristy Hess and Lisa Waller -- The development of community broadcasting legislation in Kenya / Rose Kimani -- Local media policies in Poland : Key issues and debates / Sylwia Mecfal -- The impact of communication policies in local television models. The cases of Catalonia and Scotland / Aida Martori Muntsant -- Local journalism in the United States : Its publics, its problems, and its potentials / C.W. Anderson -- Remediating the local through localised news making : India's booming multi-lingual press as agent in political and social change / Ursula Rao -- De-professionalization and fragmentation : challenges for local journalism in Sweden / Gunnar Nygren -- Central and local media in Russia : between central control and local initiatives / Ilya Kiriya -- The return of party journalism in China and 'Janusian' content : the case of Newspaper X / Jingrong Tong -- Strategy over substance and national in focus? Local television coverage of politics and policy in the US / Erika Franklin Fowler -- From journal of record to the 24/7 news cycle : perspectives on the changing nature of court reporting in Australia / Margaret Simons and Jason Bosland -- Business and ownership of local media : an international perspective / Bill Reader and John Hatcher -- Local media owners as saviours in the Czech Republic : they save money, not journalism / Lenka Waschková Císarová -- What can we learn from independent family-owned local media groups? Case studies from the UK / Sarah O'Hara -- Local media in France : subsidized, heavily regulated and under pressure / Matthieu Lardeau -- 'I've started a hyperlocal, so now what?' / Marco van Kerkhoven -- The hyperlocal 'renaissance' in Australia and New Zealand / Scott Downman and Richard Murray -- At the crossroads of hobby, community work and media business : Nordic and Russian hyperlocal practitioners / Jaana Hujanen, Olga Dovbysh, Carina Tenor, Mikko Grönlund, Katja Lehtisaari and Carl-Gustav Lindén -- Not all doom and gloom : the story of American small market newspapers / Christopher Ali, Damian Radcliffe and Rosalind Donald -- Local journalism in Bulgaria : trends from the Worlds of Journalism study / Vera Slavtcheva-Petkova -- Specialised training of local journalists in armed conflict : the Colombian experience / Yennue Zárate Valderrama -- From community to commerce? Analytics, audience 'engagement' and how local newspapers are renegotiating news values in the age of pageview-driven journalism in the UK / James Morrison -- Two tier tweeting : how promotional and personalised use of Twitter is shaping journalistic practices in the UK / Lily Canter -- Centralised and digitally disrupted : an ethnographic view of local journalism in New Zealand / Helen Sissons -- Situating journalistic coverage : a practice theory approach to researching local community radio production in the United Kingdom / Josephine F. Coleman -- What does the audience experience as valuable local journalism? Approaching local news quality from a user's perspective / Irene Costera Meijer -- Local journalism and at-risk communities in the United States / Philip M. Napoli and Matthew Weber -- The emerging deficit : changing local journalism and its impact on communities in Australia / Margaret Simons, Andrea Carson, Denis Muller and Jennifer Martin -- Strength in numbers : building collaborative partnerships for data-driven community news / Jan Lauren Boyles -- Bottom-up hyperlocal media in Belgium : Facebook-groups as collaborative neighborhood awareness systems / Jonas De Meulenaere, Cédric Courtois and Koen Ponnet -- Local news repertoires in a transforming Swedish media landscape / Annika Bergström -- The what, the where, and the why of local news in the United States / Angela Lee -- Local media and disaster reporting in Japan / Florian Meissner and Jun Tsukada -- Public service journalism and engagement in US hyperlocal non-profits / Patrick Ferrucci -- Local public service media in Northern Ireland : the merit goods argument / Phil Ramsey and Philip McDermott -- Participation in local radio agricultural broadcasts and message adoption among rural farmers in Northern Ghana / Adam Tanko Zakariah -- Pacific Islanders' Talanoa values and public support point the way forward / Shailendra Singh -- Alternative journalism, alternative ethics? / Tony Harcup.

Chapter 1. Break the Cycle of Children's Environmental Health Disparities: 14th Annual Review of Program and Student Projects (I. Leslie Rubin, MD, Robert J. Geller, MD, Claire D. Coles, PhD, Victoria Green, MD, Abby Mutic, PhD, Nathan Mutic, Wayne Garfinkel, Benjamin A. Gitterman, MD, and Joav Merrick, MD, DMSc, Department of Pediatrics, Morehouse School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, US, and others) -- Section One: A Commentary -- Chapter 2. Natural Disasters and Vulnerable Populations: A Commentary (I. Leslie Rubin, MD, Robert J. Geller, MD, Claire D. Coles, PhD, Victoria Green, MD, Abby Mutic, PhD, Nathan Mutic, Wayne Garfinkel, Benjamin A. Gitterman, MD, and Joav Merrick, MD, DMSc, Department of Pediatrics, Morehouse School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, US, and others) -- Section Two: Break the Cycle Projects -- Chapter 3. Barriers and Opportunities for Young Caregivers to Provide Nurturing Care in Low-Income Communities of Paraguay (Jimena Vallejos, Cassie Landers, EdD, and Renata Schiavo, PhD, Columbia University School of International and Public Affair, New York, US, and others) -- Chapter 4. The Development of a Prenatal Care Health Literacy Instrument for American Indian Mothers (Jordyn A. Gunville, and Jessica Williams, PhD, Center for American Indian Community Health, Kansas City, Kansas, US, and others) -- Chapter 5. Breaking the Cycle of Childhood Adversity through Pediatric Primary Care Screening and Interventions: A Pilot Study (Cristian Quizhpi, MD, Karen Schetzina, MD, Gayatri Jaishankar, MD, Robert Matthew Tolliver, PhD, Deborah Thibeault, Hakyong Gloria Kwak, Olushola Fapo, MD, Jennifer Gibson, MD, Katie Duvall and David Wood, MD, Department of Pediatrics, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, Tennessee, US, and others) -- Chapter 6. Educating Clinic Support Staff to Enhance Early Learning Environments through Pediatric Well-Child Visits (Cori Walker, Asher Liu, Snigdha Gupta, Fuad Baroody, MD, andDana Suskind, MD, TMW Center for Early Learning and Public Health, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, US) -- Chapter 7. Contextualizing the Social and Structural Constraints of Accessing Autism Services among Single Black Female Caregivers (Alice Hong and Jennifer S. Singh, MPH, PhD, Georgia Institute of Technology, School of History and Sociology, Atlanta, Georgia, US) -- Chapter 8. Engaging Parents of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder to Identify Rural Health Disparities and Factors Related to Delayed Diagnosis and Treatment (Amy A. Blumling, Susan Brasher, PhD, and Jennifer Stapel-Wax, PsyD, Nell Hodgson Woodruff School of Nursing, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, US, and others) -- Chapter 9. Evaluation of Health Literacy in Childhood-Onset -- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Patients and Its Effect on Healthcare Utilization (Catherine Park, MD, Traci Leong, PhD, Alexandria Wilkerson, -- Christy Kang, Margret Kamel, PhD, Kelly Rouster-Stevens, MD, and Roshan George, MD, Division of Pediatric Nephrology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, US, and others) -- Chapter 10. Did Medicaid Expansion Decrease Disparities for Receipt of Preventive Medical Care among Vulnerable Children? (Patricia Daniel, PhD, Audrey Leroux, PhD, and Brian Barger, Center for Leadership in Disability, Georgia State University and Department of Educational Policy Studies, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, US, and others) -- Chapter 11. Self-Perceived Neighborhood Quality and Children's Depression Symptoms in a Gentrifying Northern Manhattan (Teresa Durham, Amy Margolis, PhD, David Pagliaccio, PhD, Wanda Garcia, Kylie Wheelock Riley, Jia Guo, Shuang Wang, PhD, Bradley S. Peterson, MD, Virginia Rauh, ScD, and Julie B. Herbstman, PhD, Columbia Center for Children's Environmental Health, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York City, New York, US, and others) -- Chapter 12. Water Infrastructure and Childhood Blood Lead Levels: Characterizing the Effects of Exclusion from Municipal Services in Wake County (NC, USA) (Allison C. Clonch, Michael Fisher, PhD, and Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson, PhD, Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, -- University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, US, and -- others) -- Chapter 13. The Impact of Childhood Exercise and Household Income on Resilience in College Students (Leah Postilnik, and Maeve Howett, PhD, College of Nursing, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, US, and others) -- Section Three: Acknowledgements -- Chapter 14. About the Editors -- Chapter 15. About Break the Cycle of Health Disparities, Inc. -- Chapter 16. About the Pediatric Environmental Health Specialty -- Unit (PEHSU) -- Chapter 17. About the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development in Israel -- Section four: Index.

Machine generated contents note:ch. 1Introduction --1.1.Research background basic consensus --1.2.Existing literature: a brief review --1.3.Analytical logic and research objective --1.4.Related concepts and definitions --1.5.Problems and difficulties --1.6.Analytical structure and basic conclusions --ch. 2Economic Globalization and Trade Off --2.1.Modern picture of global economy connection: the world after 16th century --2.2.Benefits and costs of globalization: question from Stiglitz --2.3.Economic globalization: where are we going --ch. 3Adjustment of Global Economy and China's Choice --3.1.China in global economic adjustment: a remote retrospect --3.2.Trade choice and institution conflict in global economic adjustment --3.3.Government's role and policy choice in global economic adjustment --ch. 4Institution Change, Degree of Openness and Economic Growth --4.1.Theory of institution-economy growth --4.2.Degree of openness, institution change and economic growth: econometric analysis --4.3.Conclusion --ch. 5Economic Globalization and China's Economic Growth: Relationship and Efficiency --5.1.Introduction --5.2.Economic globalization and economy growth: evolution of theoretical logic and analytical paradigm --5.3.Economic globalization and economic growth: China as an example --5.4.Conclusion and policy implications --ch. 6Global Economic Adjustment, Capital Flow and China's Economy Growth --6.1.Introduction --6.2.Openness, capital flows and economic growth: theoretical logic and empirical test --6.3.Capital flow and China's economic growth: empirical analysis --6.4.Conclusion and policy implications --ch. 7Global Economy Growth, Economic Structure and Capital Market --7.1.Research background and problems --7.2.Stucture change of global economy and capital market: a historical perspective --7.3.Economy growth, structure change and capital market: a theoretical analysis --7.4.Economic growth, structure change and capital market: China's practice --ch. 8China's Economy Growth and Capital Market in the Background of Global Economy Adjustment: Further Discussion --8.1.Introduction and data --8.2.The connection between capital market and economic growth: theory and example --8.3.Capital market and China's economy growth: empirical analysis --8.4.Why can't China's capital market have positive effect on economic structure change and economic growth --8.5.Brief conclusion --ch. 9Global Economic Adjustment, Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy Choice: General Discussion --9.1.Introduction: adjustment theory and analytical perspectives of analysis --9.2.Economic adjustment stages and features of China's economic growth --9.3.Fiscal policy choice: promoting a balanced economic growth --ch. 10Global Economic Adjustment, Balanced Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy Choice --10.1.Introduction --10.2.Economic growth pattern: to be more balanced --10.3.Fiscal policies aiming to improve income distribution: further discussion --10.4.Fiscal policies coordinating with financial market reform --10.5.Fiscal policies changing the innovation direction of enterprises --10.6.Complicatedness of fiscal policies in adjustment period --ch. 11Global Economic Adjustment, Monetary Policy Evolution and Related Trade-off --11.1.Monetary policy evolution: a picture at early stage --11.2.Forming monetary policy frame: process and logic --11.3.Change of financial structures and adjustment of monetary policy goal --11.4.Change of monetary policy environment and policy efficiency --11.5.Internal conflict and external balance: a trade-off of monetary policy in China --ch. 12Financial Stability and New Objective of Monetary Policy in Global Economic Adjustment --12.1.Introduction: emergence of financial stability goal in globalization era --12.2.External source of financial instability: imbalance global economic --12.3.Internal source of financial instability: over-fluctuation of asset price --12.4.Economy imbalance and financial instability: Japan's case --12.5.Conclusion: required change of monetary policy' ultimate goal --ch. 13Global Economic Adjustment, National Choice and Mix of Fiscal and Monetary Policies --13.1.Imbalance of global economy: features, formations and policy choice --13.2.Basic choice for a nation to adjust economy in the background of global economic adjustment --13.3.Macro control system in the background of global economic adjustment --13.4.Fiscal and monetary policy mix as a way to resolve internal-external imbalance --ch. 14Seeking Effective Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Background of Global Economic Adjustment --14.1.Introduction --14.2.China's fiscal and monetary policy mix in macro control: a historical trail --14.3.What is the problem of China's fiscal and monetary policy mix --14.4.Rules of economy policy design and patterns of fiscal and monetary policy mix --14.5.Choice and use of fiscal and monetary instruments --14.6.Reformulate the micro basis and transmission mechanism of fiscal and monetary policies --14.7.International cooperation of fiscal and monetary policies --ch. 15Conclusion.

Accent Discrimination -- Affordable Care Act and Undocumented Immigrants -- African Immigrants -- Afro-Caribbean immigrants -- Alien and Sedition Acts -- Alien land laws -- Amerasians -- American Jewish Committee -- Anglo-conformity -- Anti-Irish Riots of 1844 -- Arab American intergroup relations -- Arab American stereotypes -- Arab immigrants -- Ashkenazic and German Jewish immigrants -- Asian American education -- Asian American Legal Defense Fund -- Asian American literature -- Asian American stereotypes -- Asian American women -- Asian Indian immigrants -- Asian Indian immigrants and family customs -- Asian Pacific American Labor Alliance -- Assimilation theories -- Au pairs -- Bangladeshi immigrants in the United States -- Bilingual education -- Bilingual Education Act of 1968 -- Border Patrol, U.S. -- Bracero program -- Brain Drain -- British as dominant group -- Burlingame Treaty -- Cable Act -- California gold rush -- Cambodian immigrants -- Canadian immigrants -- Celtic Irish -- Censuses, U.S. -- Chicano movement -- Chinatowns -- Chinese American Citizens Alliance -- Chinese detentions in New York -- Chinese Exclusion Act -- Chinese exclusion cases -- Chinese immigrants -- Chinese immigrants and California's gold rush -- Chinese immigrants and family customs -- Chinese Six Companies -- Citizenship -- Clotilde slave ship -- Coast Guard, U.S. -- Coolies -- Cuban immigrants -- Cuban immigrants and African Americans -- Cuban refugee policy -- Cultural pluralism -- Demographics of immigration -- Deportation -- Discrimination -- Domestic Abuse as a Protected Category (Asylum) -- Dominican immigrants -- The DREAM Act -- Eastern European Jewish immigrants -- English-only and official English movements -- Ethnic enclaves -- Euro-Americans -- European immigrant literature -- European immigrants, 1790-1892 -- European immigrants, 1892-1943 -- E-Verify Employment Verification System -- Family businesses -- Farmworkers' unions -- Federal riot of 1799 -- Filipino immigrants -- Filipino immigrants and family customs -- Florida illegal-immigrant suit -- Garment industry -- Gay Lesbian Transgender Immigrants and Asylum Seekers -- Generational acculturation -- Gentlemen's Agreement -- German and Irish immigration of the 1840's -- German immigrants -- González rescue -- Green cards -- Gypsy immigrants -- H-1B Visa -- Haitian boat people -- Haitian immigrants -- Hansen effect -- Hawaiian and Pacific islander immigrants -- Head money cases -- Helsinki Watch report on U.S. refugee policy -- History of U.S. immigration -- Hmong immigrants -- Homeland Security Department: 2003 -- Hull-House -- Human Smuggling (or HumanTrafficking) -- Illegal aliens -- Immigrant advantage -- Immigrants in sports -- Immigration Act of 1917 -- Immigration Act of 1921 -- Immigration Act of 1924 -- Immigration Act of 1943 -- Immigration Act of 1990 -- Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 -- Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 -- Immigration and Naturalization Service -- Immigration and Naturalization Service V. Chadha -- Immigration ?Crisis? -- Immigration in Film -- Immigration Law -- Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 -- Indentured Servitude -- Indigenous Superordination -- International Adoptions -- Iranian Immigrants -- Irish Immigrants -- Irish Immigrants and African Americans -- Irish Immigrants and Discrimination -- Irish Stereotypes -- Israeli Immigrants -- Italian Immigrants -- Jamaican Immigrants -- Jamestown Colony -- Japanese American Citizens League -- Japanese American Internment -- Japanese Immigrants -- Japanese Peruvians -- Japanese Segregation in California Schools -- Jewish Immigrants -- Jewish Settlement of New York -- Jews and Arab Americans -- Justice and Immigration -- Know-Nothing Party -- Korean Immigrants -- Korean Immigrants and Family Customs -- Ku Klux Klan -- Laotian Immigrants -- Latinos -- Latinos and Employment -- Latinos and Family Customs -- Lau v. Nichols -- League of United Latin American Citizens -- Literature -- Little Havana -- Little Italies -- Little Tokyos -- Machine Politics -- Mail-Order Brides -- Mariel Boatlift -- Medical Examination of Immigrants and Refugees -- Melting Pot -- Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund -- Mexican Deportations during the Depression -- Middle Eastern Immigrant Families -- Migrant Superordination -- Migration -- Model Minorities -- Mongrelization -- Muslims -- Nativism -- Naturalization -- Naturalization Act of 1790 -- Nguyen v. Immigration and Naturalization Service -- Nigerian Immigrants -- Operation Wetback -- Ozawa v. United States -- Page Law -- Pakistani Immigrants -- Palmer Raids -- Picture Brides -- Plyler v. Doe -- Polish Immigrants -- Proposition 187 -- Proposition 227 -- Push and Pull Factors -- Racial and Ethnic Demographic Trends -- Real ID Act -- Refugee Fatigue -- Refugee Relief Act of 1953 -- Refugees and Racial/Ethnic Relations -- Russian Immigrants -- Sacco and Vanzetti Trial -- Santería -- Scandinavian Immigrants -- Scotch-Irish immigrants -- The Secure Fence Act -- Sephardic Jews -- September 11 Terrorist Attacks -- Settlement House Movement -- Shadow Wolves (Native American INS Tracking Unit) -- Sikh Immigrants -- Southeast Asian Immigrants -- Soviet Jewish Immigrants -- Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act -- Taiwanese Immigrants -- Thai Garment Worker Enslavement -- Tibetan Immigrants -- Triangle Shirtwaist Company Fire -- Twice Migrants -- Unaccompanied Children as Immigrants -- Undocumented Workers -- Universal Negro Improvement Association -- Vietnamese Immigrants -- Visas -- War Brides -- War Brides Act -- West Indian Immigrants -- White Ethnics -- Women Immigrants -- Wong Kim Ark Case -- Xenophobia -- "Yellow Peril" Campaign -- Zadvydas v. Davis -- U.S. State Briefs -- Bibliography -- Time Line of U.S. Immigration History -- Immigration Statistics -- Legal Permanent Residents -- Refugees and Asylees -- Naturalizations -- Nonimmigrant Admissions -- Enforcement Actions.

Climate Resilient Agriculture for Ensuring Food Securitycomprehensively deals with important aspects of climate resilient agriculture for food security using adaptation and mitigation measures. Climatic changes and increasing climatic variability are likely to aggravate the problem of future food security by exerting pressure on agriculture. For the past few decades, the gaseous composition of the earth's atmosphere has been undergoing significant changes, largely through increased emissions from the energy, industry and agriculture sectors; widespread deforestation as well as fast changes in land use and land management practices. Agriculture and food systems must improve and ensure food security, and to do so they need to adapt to climate change and natural resource pressures, and contribute to mitigating climate change. Climate-resilient agriculture contributes to sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and incomes, adapting and building resilience to climate change and reducing and/or eliminating greenhouse gas emissions where possible. The information on climate resilient agriculture for ensuring food security is widely scattered. There is currently no other book that comprehensively and exclusively deals with the above aspects of agriculture and focuses on ensuring food security. This volume is divided into fourteen chapters, which include the Introduction, Causes of Climate Change, Agriculture as a Source of Greenhouse Gases, Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture, Regional Impacts on Climate Change, Impacts on Crop Protection, Impacts on Insect and Mite Pests, Impacts on Plant Pathogens, Impacts on Nematode Pests, Impacts on Weeds, Impacts on Integrated Pest Management, Climate Change Adaptation, Climate Change Mitigation, and A Road Map Ahead. The book is extensively illustrated with excellent photographs, which enhance the quality of publication. It is clearly written, using easy-to-understand language. It also provides adoptable recommendations involving eco-friendly adaptation and mitigation measures. This book will be of immense value to the scientific community involved in teaching, research and extension activities. The material can also be used for teaching post-graduate courses. It will also serve as a very useful reference source for policy makers. Dr. P. Parvatha Reddy obtained his Ph.D. degree jointly from the University of Florida, USA and the University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore. Dr. Reddy served as the Director of the prestigious Indian Institute of Horticultural Research (IIHR) at Bangalore from 1999 to 2002 during which period the Institute was honored with 'ICAR Best Institution Award'. He also served as the Head, Division of Entomology and Nematology at IIHR and gave tremendous impetus and direction to research, extension and education in developing bio-intensive integrated pest management strategies in horticultural crops. These technologies are being practiced widely by the farmers across the country since they are effective, economical, eco-friendly and residue-free. Dr. Reddy has about 34 years of experience working with horticultural crops and involved in developing an F1 tomato hybrid 'Arka Varadan' resistant to root-knot nematodes. Dr. Reddy has over 250 scientific publications to his credit, which also include 30 books. He has also guided two Ph.D. students at the University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore. Dr. Reddy served as Chairman, Research Advisory Committee of Indian Institute of Vegetable Research, Varanasi; National Centre for Integrated Pest Management, New Delhi; National Research Centre for Citrus, Nagpur and the Project Directorate of Biological Control, Bangalore. He served as a Member, QRT to review the progress of AICRP on Nematodes; AINRP on Betelvine; Central Tuber Crops Research Institute, Trivandrum and AICRP on Tuber Crops. He also served as a Member of the Expert Panel for monitoring the research program of National Initiative on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) in the theme of Horticulture including Pest Dynamics and Pollinators. He is the Honorary Fellow of the Society for Plant Protection Sciences, New Delhi, Fellow of the Indian Phytopathological Society, New Delhi and Founder President of the Association for Advancement of Pest Management in Horticultural Ecosystems (AAPMHE), Bangalore. Dr. Reddy has been awarded with the prestigious 'Association for Advancement Pest Management in Horticultural Ecosystems Award', 'Dr. G.I. D'souza Memorial Lecture Award', 'Prof. H.M. Shah Memorial Award' and ' Hexamar Agricultural Research and Development Foundation Award' for his unstinted efforts in developing sustainable, bio-intensive and eco-friendly integrated pest management strategies in horticultural crops. Dr. Reddy has organized 'Fourth International Workshop on Biological Control and Management of Chromolaena odorata', 'National Seminar on Hitech Horticulture', 'First National Symposium on Pest Management in Horticultural Crops: Environmental Implications and Thrusts' and 'Second National Symposium on Pest Management in Horticultural Crops: New Molecules and Biopesticides'.

1 The Nature of Printing Inks -- 1.1 Visual characteristics of inks -- 1.2 The nature of printing inks as determined by the printing process -- 1.3 The drying characteristics -- 1.4 The adhesive nature of printing inks -- 1.5 The resistance properties of printing inks -- 2 The Printing Processes -- 2.1 The letterpress process -- 2.2 The offset lithographic process -- 2.3 The gravure process -- 2.4 The flexographic process -- 2.5 The screen printing process -- 2.6 Non-impact printing processes -- 2.7 Other printing processes -- 2.8 Print recognition -- 2.9 Substrate selection -- 2.10 The need for communication -- 3 Colour and Colour Matching -- 3.1 The physical nature of colour -- 3.2 The perception of colour -- 3.3 Additive and subtractive colour mixing -- 3.4 Origins of colour in printed material -- 3.5 Graphic reproduction -- 3.6 The measurement of colour -- 3.7 The recording of colour data and the specification of colour -- 3.8 Colour matching -- 3.9 Instrumental colour match prediction -- References -- 4 Raw Materials -- Section I Pigments -- Section II Dyestuffs -- Section III Oils -- Section IV Resins -- Section V Solvents -- Section VI Plasticisers -- Section VII Waxes -- Section VIII Driers -- Section IX Miscellaneous additives -- Section X Raw materials for radiation curing systems -- Section XI Health and safety at work -- References -- 5 Letterpress Inks -- 5.1 Nature of the process -- 5.2 General characteristics of letterpress inks -- 5.3 Physical properties -- 5.4 Raw materials -- 5.5 Letterpress ink formulation -- 5.6 Ink-related problems and their possible solutions -- 5.7 New developments -- 6 Lithographic Inks -- 6.1 General characteristics of litho inks -- 6.2 Drying mechanisms -- 6.3 Physical properties -- 6.4 Formulating principles -- 6.5 Typical inks and varnishes -- 6.6 Ink-related problems and their possible solutions -- 6.7 Recent and future trends -- 7 Gravure Inks -- 7.1 General characteristics -- 7.2 Physical properties of inks and their measurement -- 7.3 Formulating principles -- 7.4 Inks and varnishes for specific end-use applications -- 7.5 Printing ink faults -- 7.6 Future developments -- 8 Flexographic Inks -- 8.1 General characteristics of the inks -- 8.2 Physical properties of flexographic inks and their measurement -- 8.3 Formulating principles -- 8.4 Inks and varnishes for special purposes -- 8.5 Ink-related printing problems and possible solutions -- 8.6 Recent and future trends -- 9 Screen Inks -- 9.1 Important characteristics of screen inks -- 9.2 Requirements of raw materials -- 9.3 Inks for paper and board -- 9.4 Inks for impervious surfaces -- 9.5 Inks for plastic containers -- 9.6 Textile inks -- 9.7 Transfer inks -- 9.8 Overprint varnishes -- 9.9 Daylight fluorescent inks -- 9.10 Process inks -- 9.11 Metallics -- 9.12 Ink-related printing problems -- 9.13 Recent and future trends -- 10 Radiation Curable Systems -- 10.1 Electromagnetic radiation and electron beams -- 10.2 Microwave and radio frequency drying -- 10.3 Infra-red curing systems -- 10.4 Ultraviolet and electron beam curable inks and varnishes -- 10.5 Radiation curing equipment -- 10.6 State of the art and future trends -- Further reading -- 11 Inks for Special Purposes -- 11.1 Non-impact printing -- 11.2 Speciality screen inks -- 11.3 Inks for the electronics industry -- 11.4 Inks for laminated plastics -- 11.5 Inks for wallcoverings -- 11.6 Textile transfer inks -- 11.7 Sterilisation inks -- 11.8 Metal decorating -- 11.9 Letterset printing -- 12 Manufacture of Inks and Varnishes -- 12.1 General requirements -- 12.2 The manufacturing processes -- 12.3 Mixing equipment -- 12.4 Milling equipment -- 12.5 Handling, storage and manufacture of UV inks -- 12.6 Manufacture of newspaper inks -- 12.7 Handling and storage of inks -- 12.8 Modern production trends -- 12.9 The future -- 13 Rheology of Printing Inks -- 13.1 Flow in ideal systems -- 13.2 Deviations from Newtonian behaviour -- 13.3 Apparatus for the measurement of the viscosity of Newtonian liquids -- 13.4 Practical measurements for non-Newtonian systems -- 13.5 Tack -- 13.6 Tack measurement -- 13.7 Ink distribution and related matters -- 13.8 Rheological measurements and machine design -- References -- 14 Testing, Control and Analysis -- 14.1 Standard tests -- 14.2 Sampling technique -- 14.3 Pigment testing -- 14.4 Chips and pre-dispersions -- 14.5 Dye testing -- 14.6 Resins -- 14.7 Varnishes and oils -- 14.8 Solvents -- 14.9 Radiation curing products -- 14.10 Miscellaneous materials -- 14.11 Ink quality control -- 14.12 Short-term ink testing -- 14.13 Long-term ink testing -- 14.14 Press performance tests -- 14.15 Dry print performance tests -- 14.16 Analysis of printing inks -- References -- Further reading -- 15 Health, Safety and the Environment -- 15.1 Handling of dangerous substances in the manufacture of printing inks -- 15.2 Mechanical and operational aspects -- 15.3 Specific printing ink applications -- 15.4 Some international constraints -- Glossary of abbreviations -- References.

The Israeli killing of seven international aid workers this week has already had a chilling effect on the prospects of President Joe Biden's aid surge project, which is supposed to deploy the U.S. military to build a causeway off the coast of Gaza to deliver food into the strip, ostensibly next month.Meanwhile, fielding questions from reporters at the White House yesterday after the killing of the World Central Kitchen workers, spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said the temporary pier would be operational "in a couple of weeks." This is highly ambitious and likely not true. An Army spokesman claims the ships carrying the supplies for both the floating pier and the causeway that is supposed to be anchored to the yet-to-be-known location on the Gaza beach are "streaming" (POLITICO's words, more on that below) toward the region, but they still have to build the infrastructure, and most estimates don't expect completion until May.More importantly, POLITICO reports that the United Nations' World Food Programme (WFP) was likely tapped by the U.S. to deliver the aid into Gaza once it the hit the beach, but is now having second thoughts because of the World Central Kitchen killings. As reported, Chef Jose Andrés's organization had been coordinating for months with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and their convoy was known to the IDF the day of the deadly strikes. They were targeted and blown to bits anyway. Now, WFP is denying there was any formal agreement between the aid organization and the U.S., and says it wants more assurances of its people's safety before going ahead with any such contract. "Any decision regarding the UN participation in the maritime corridor setup needs to be fully agreed on with the humanitarian agencies operating in Gaza, under conditions that allow for safe, sustained and scaled-up assistance to reach people in need," Steve Taravella, a spokesman for the WFP said Wednesday.This comes amid public concerns by former military officials that the project leaves U.S. soldiers vulnerable as they build the causeway, anchor it, and engage partners in the deliveries from Cyprus to Gaza. There are unconfirmed reports that the IDF and private contractors would provide a "security bubble" on the ground, but this week's killings, plus numerous reports about IDF "kill zones" and AI targeting, not to mention the fact that it is an active war zone, give no confidence to observers who are wondering why the administration does not press Israel to just open up existing aid checkpoints on land instead.Retired Naval officer Jerry Hendrix was quoted in the Washington Post saying the whole causeway project would leave U.S. troops "highly vulnerable" and calling the plan "stupid." Interestingly, the POLITICO story quoted former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Mick Mulroy without noting he was vice president of Fogbow, which is the private company supposedly tapped to help the U.S. military provide logistics and security for the project, according to unconfirmed reports. Even he thinks the World Central Kitchen killings could have "a chilling effect on who will volunteer, who will deliver aid in Gaza," he told POLITICO.Mike DiMino, a former CIA analyst and fellow at Defense Priorities, agrees. "The WCK strike completely vindicates the immense and varied potential risks to U.S. personnel that we have repeatedly highlighted," he told RS Wednesday. "What if (American citizens) are delivering aid ashore, and the IDF suspected a terrorist was among them? Or 'confused' armed security contractors for Hamas operatives? We found out yesterday.""Who will want to volunteer for that job now? Looks like the deal is on ice. I'm hoping, frankly, that the WCK incident will kill the pier idea entirely, though I won't hold my breath."As for the ships "streaming" into the region, according to satellite readings today only one is within range of Cyrpus, which is where the Army and Navy will begin the process. The fastest among them, the USN Roy Benavidez, is docked in Crete. The USAV Frank Besson, which left the U.S. first on March 10, is off the coast of Algeria. The smaller Army craft Monterrey, Wilson Wharf, Matamoros, and Loux, are now sailing through the Canary Islands in the Atlantic. The Naval vessel Bobo is still in Jacksonville, Florida, and the Lopez hasn't reached Bermuda yet. At this rate the Besson will get to Cyprus first (after Benavidez), but not for another week, at least.

Nuclear weapons aren't just a threat to human survival, they're a multi-billion-dollar business supported by some of the biggest institutional investors in the U.S. according to new data released today by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) and PAX, the largest peace organization in the Netherlands. For the third year in a row, globally, the number of investors in nuclear weapons producers has fallen but the overall amount invested in these companies has increased, largely thanks to some of the biggest investment banks and funds in the U.S."As for the U.S., while there is, like past years, indeed a dominance, and total financing from U.S.-based institutions has increased, the total number of U.S. investors has dropped for the third year in a row (similar to our global findings), and we hope to see this number will continue to fall in the coming years," Alejandar Munoz, the report's primary author, told Responsible Statecraft.In 2023, the top 10 share and bondholders of nuclear weapons producing companies are all American firms. The firms — Vanguard, Capital Group, State Street, BlackRock, Wellington Management, Fidelity Investments, Newport Group, Geode Capital Holdings, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley — held $327 billion in investments in nuclear weapons producing companies in 2023, an $18 billion increase from 2022.These companies are also profiting from the enormous government contracts they receive for developing and modernizing nuclear weapons. "All nuclear-armed states are currently modernizing their nuclear weapon systems," says the annual "Don't Bank on the Bomb" report from PAX and ICAN. "In 2022, the nine nuclear-armed states together spent $82.9 billion on their nuclear weapons arsenals, an increase of $2.5 billion compared to the previous year, and with the United States spending more than all other nuclear powers combined."American weapons companies are some of the biggest recipients of contracts for nuclear weapons. Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics are "the biggest nuclear weapons profiteers," according to the report. Combined, the two American weapons manufacturers have outstanding nuclear weapons related contracts with a combined potential value of at least $44.9 billion.Those enormous government contracts for nuclear weapons, alongside contracts for conventional weapons, have helped make nuclear weapons producers an attractive investment for American investment banks and funds. "Altogether, 287 financial institutions were identified for having substantial financing or investment relations with 24 companies involved in nuclear weapon production," says the report. "$477 billion was held in bonds and shares, and $343 billion was provided in loans and underwriting."The report notes that while the total amount invested in nuclear weapons has increased, the number of investors has fallen and trends toward firms in countries with nuclear weapons.ICAN and PAX suggest that concentration may be a result of prohibitions on nuclear weapons development for signatories to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), a 93 signatory treaty committing to the ultimate goal of the total elimination of nuclear weapons. The report says:The TPNW comprehensively prohibits the development, manufacturing, testing, possession, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance with those acts. For companies that build the key components needed to maintain and expand countries' nuclear arsenals, access to private funding is crucial. As such, the banks, pension funds, asset managers and other financiers that continue to invest in or grant credit to these companies allow for the production of inhumane and indiscriminate weapons to proceed. By divesting from their business relationships with these companies, financial institutions can reduce available capital for nuclear weapon related activities and thereby be instrumental in supporting the fulfilment of the TPNW's objectives.Susi Snyder, managing director of the Don't Bank on the Bomb Project, told Responsible Statecraft that even U.S. banks, like Pittsburgh based PNC Bank, are facing shareholder pressure to divest from nuclear weapons and that the tide may be shifting as shareholders in U.S. companies grow increasingly sensitive to investments in nuclear weapons. "For three years shareholder resolutions have been put forward at PNC bank raising concerns that their investments in nuclear weapon producers are a violation of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), and that they are not in line with the bank's overall human rights policy guidelines," she said.