Suchergebnisse

PO surveys from 1979 to 1981 are analyzed to assess changing Dutch attitudes on foreign & defense policies & the influence of pressure group activism, particularly that of the peace movement. Despite difficulties in data interpretation, findings indicate a greater change in intensity than in content of such attitudes; while there is quasi-unanimity to maintain NATO membership & balance of power, the majority of Rs want no new nuclear arms probably due to the peace movement, & wish to remove existing ones from Dutch territory & cease nuclear activity in the Dutch armed forces. Potential political gains by parties espousing these goals, particularly the Dutch Labor Party, are predicted. Contradictions in the available data are noted, however, & the necessity of more detailed research is emphasized. 35 Tables. Modified HA.

Data from political anthropology, archeology, & history are used to develop an overview of the evolution of political organization up to the point of the emergence of the early state. While evolution is a process of gradual transformation, it is possible to distinguish several broad evolutionary states: egalitarian, rank, stratified, & state society. The evolution of political organization is influenced on the one hand by general forces, such as population growth & pressure, & on the other hand by such specific forces as surplus production, obligations caused by reciprocity, ideological convictions, & kinship type; in interplay, these cause specific types of political organization. Such factors as population pressure, war or threat of war, & conquest seem to play the most important role in the gradual emergence of the state. A necessary condition for this emergence seems to be that existing ideological convictions not be incompatible with hierarchization & centralization. Modified HA.

The welfare state is analyzed through positive economic science & positive political theory. The axiomatic theory of consistent choice, leading to the idea of Pareto optimality, provides more rigorous analysis than the theory of the firm & of industrial organization; however, the latter theory more fully merges theory with the empirical testing of hypotheses. Theories of political phenomena can profit more from theories of the latter kind than from theories of the former kind. The central point is production of falsifiable theories of hypotheses & predictions, & the avoidance of confusions of description with prescription in dealing with political life. The debate over whether a socialist economy can coordinate decisions on the use of scarce resources, & the resulting questions over the social & economic role of the state, remain unresolved on theoretical grounds. Thus, economics cannot prescribe the proper role of the state. Attention must be given to the process & meaning of law making, the intended effects of laws & their compatibility with one another. There is thus a need for scientific & parliamentary scrutiny of their implementation in a democratic state under pressure from interest groups. There is a great need for analysis of the processes going on in the crumbling welfare state, rather than propaganda; providing this analysis is part of the vocation of academic leaders. Modified HA.

Data from the 1977 national election survey of Dutch voters are used to test a hypothetico-deductive model of party preference formation, based on the supposition that voters tend to express a preference for the parties with which their views on a particular set of issues are most consistent. The parties examined are the PvdA (Labor), CDA (Christian Democratic), & VVD (Conservative-Liberal). Multiple-regression analysis allows explanation of about 40% of differences in party preference between voters on the basis of voters' stands on issues. Comparison of voters' stands & perceived party stands appears to predict expressed party preference adequately in 69% of cases. These results give support for the view that human behavior is not blindly mechanistic, but involves some minimal level of reflection. Consideration of methodological problems leads to the conclusion that relatively simple models resting on clear theoretical assumptions are preferable to more sophisticated models, which have less solid theoretical foundations & do not gain in explanatory or predictive power. 11 Tables, 1 Graph, Appendix. Modified HA.