Suchergebnisse

The economic imbalances that characterize the world economy have unequally distributed costs and benefits. This raises the question how countries could run long-term external surpluses and deficits without significant opposition against the policies that generate them. We show that economic ideas, and their emphasis in the public discourse , help to secure mass political support for these policies and the resulting economic outcomes. First, a content analysis of 32,000 newspaper articles finds that the dominant interpretations of economic outcomes in Australia and Germany concur with very distinct perspectives: external surpluses are seen as evidence of competitiveness in Germany, while external deficits are interpreted as evidence of attractiveness for investments in Australia. Second, survey experiments in both countries suggest that exposure to these diverging interpretations has a causal effect on citizens' support for their country's economic strategy. Economic ideas, thus, are crucial to provide the societal foundation of national growth strategies.

Asia-Pacific trade and investment flows have burgeoned over recent decades, albeit impacted by China-US trade tensions and especially the COVID-19 pandemic (§1.02). International investment agreements have proliferated to liberalise and protect investments (§1.03), mostly adding the option of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS). Asia-related ISDS cases have also started to grow, albeit somewhat belatedly (§1.04), complementing a more longstanding upward trend in international commercial arbitration (ICA) cases involving Asian parties filed in the region as well as the traditional Western centres (§1.05). The eastward shift in international dispute resolution has already involved initiatives to improve not just support for ICA and ISDS arbitrations, but also to develop alternatives such as international commercial courts and mediation. Core arguments from ensuing chapters (§1.06) cover the main existing venues for international dispute resolution in Asia (China, Hong Kong and Singapore) but also some emerging contenders (Japan, Malaysia, India and Australia). Overall (§1.07), can ICA venues improve their attractiveness through law reforms, case law development and other measures, despite growing concerns about costs and delays? Will some emerging concerns about ISDS prompt Asia-Pacific states to become more active 'rule makers' in international investment law? How might these issues be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic?

Asia-Pacific trade and investment flows have burgeoned over recent decades, albeit impacted by China-US trade tensions and especially the COVID-19 pandemic (§1.02). International investment agreements have proliferated to liberalise and protect investments (§1.03), mostly adding the option of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS). Asia-related ISDS cases have also started to grow, albeit somewhat belatedly (§1.04), complementing a more longstanding upward trend in international commercial arbitration (ICA) cases involving Asian parties filed in the region as well as the traditional Western centres (§1.05). The eastward shift in international dispute resolution has already involved initiatives to improve not just support for ICA and ISDS arbitrations, but also to develop alternatives such as international commercial courts and mediation. Core arguments from ensuing chapters (§1.06) cover the main existing venues for international dispute resolution in Asia (China, Hong Kong and Singapore) but also some emerging contenders (Japan, Malaysia, India and Australia). Overall (§1.07), can ICA venues improve their attractiveness through law reforms, case law development and other measures, despite growing concerns about costs and delays? Will some emerging concerns about ISDS prompt Asia-Pacific states to become more active 'rule makers' in international investment law? How might these issues be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic?

Asia-Pacific trade and investment flows have burgeoned over recent decades, albeit impacted by China-US trade tensions and especially the COVID-19 pandemic (§1.02). International investment agreements have proliferated to liberalise and protect investments (§1.03), mostly adding the option of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS). Asia-related ISDS cases have also started to grow, albeit somewhat belatedly (§1.04), complementing a more longstanding upward trend in international commercial arbitration (ICA) cases involving Asian parties filed in the region as well as the traditional Western centres (§1.05). The eastward shift in international dispute resolution has already involved initiatives to improve not just support for ICA and ISDS arbitrations, but also to develop alternatives such as international commercial courts and mediation. Core arguments from ensuing chapters (§1.06) cover the main existing venues for international dispute resolution in Asia (China, Hong Kong and Singapore) but also some emerging contenders (Japan, Malaysia, India and Australia). Overall (§1.07), can ICA venues improve their attractiveness through law reforms, case law development and other measures, despite growing concerns about costs and delays? Will some emerging concerns about ISDS prompt Asia-Pacific states to become more active 'rule makers' in international investment law? How might these issues be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic?

CEPII Working Paper, No 2018-05 - April 2018 ; There has been considerable attention paid to the endogenous nature of regional trade agreements Geography, economic size, or common history help predicting signed agreements. However, not all signed RTAs are "natural" according to economic determinants, as trade negotiations can be used as a tool of external policy. Recent developments in terms of structural gravity help clarifying this debate by taking account of all theoretically relevant determinants of bilateral trade, as well as general equilibrium effects of signing an agreement. Indeed, the endogeneity of trade arrangements has a time dimension and is related to firm strategies. These are the two mechanisms addressed in this paper. We estimate the time-varying probability for a country pair to sign a trade agreement and build upon structural gravity in general equilibrium to determine how the patterns of Global Value Chains shape the evolving geography of optimal trade agreements. Our results confirm that the endogenous geography of RTAs is shaped by the development of GVCs. ; Une grande attention a été accordée à la nature endogène des accords commerciaux régionaux. La géographie, la taille économique ou l'histoire commune aident à prévoir les accords régionaux (ACR) signés. Cependant, tous les ACR signés ne sont pas "naturels" du point de vue des seuls déterminants économiques, dans la mesure où les négociations commerciales peuvent être utilisées comme un outil de politique extérieure.Les développements récents en termes de modèles structurels de gravité des échanges aident à clarifier ce débat en prenant en compte l'ensemble des déterminants théoriques du commerce bilatéral. En effet, l'endogénéité des accords commerciaux a une dimension temporelle et est liée aux stratégies des firmes. Ces deux mécanismes sont abordés ici : nous estimons a probabilité pour chaque paire de pays de signer un accord commercial et utilisons la gravité structurelle en équilibre général pour déterminer comment les chaînes de valeur mondiales façonnent la géographie optimale des accords commerciaux. Nos résultats confirment que la géographie endogène des ACR est façonnée par le développement des chaînes de valeurs mondiales.

CEPII Working Paper, No 2018-05 - April 2018 ; There has been considerable attention paid to the endogenous nature of regional trade agreements Geography, economic size, or common history help predicting signed agreements. However, not all signed RTAs are "natural" according to economic determinants, as trade negotiations can be used as a tool of external policy. Recent developments in terms of structural gravity help clarifying this debate by taking account of all theoretically relevant determinants of bilateral trade, as well as general equilibrium effects of signing an agreement. Indeed, the endogeneity of trade arrangements has a time dimension and is related to firm strategies. These are the two mechanisms addressed in this paper. We estimate the time-varying probability for a country pair to sign a trade agreement and build upon structural gravity in general equilibrium to determine how the patterns of Global Value Chains shape the evolving geography of optimal trade agreements. Our results confirm that the endogenous geography of RTAs is shaped by the development of GVCs. ; Une grande attention a été accordée à la nature endogène des accords commerciaux régionaux. La géographie, la taille économique ou l'histoire commune aident à prévoir les accords régionaux (ACR) signés. Cependant, tous les ACR signés ne sont pas "naturels" du point de vue des seuls déterminants économiques, dans la mesure où les négociations commerciales peuvent être utilisées comme un outil de politique extérieure.Les développements récents en termes de modèles structurels de gravité des échanges aident à clarifier ce débat en prenant en compte l'ensemble des déterminants théoriques du commerce bilatéral. En effet, l'endogénéité des accords commerciaux a une dimension temporelle et est liée aux stratégies des firmes. Ces deux mécanismes sont abordés ici : nous estimons a probabilité pour chaque paire de pays de signer un accord commercial et utilisons la gravité structurelle en équilibre général pour déterminer comment les chaînes de ...

CEPII Working Paper, No 2018-05 - April 2018 ; There has been considerable attention paid to the endogenous nature of regional trade agreements Geography, economic size, or common history help predicting signed agreements. However, not all signed RTAs are "natural" according to economic determinants, as trade negotiations can be used as a tool of external policy. Recent developments in terms of structural gravity help clarifying this debate by taking account of all theoretically relevant determinants of bilateral trade, as well as general equilibrium effects of signing an agreement. Indeed, the endogeneity of trade arrangements has a time dimension and is related to firm strategies. These are the two mechanisms addressed in this paper. We estimate the time-varying probability for a country pair to sign a trade agreement and build upon structural gravity in general equilibrium to determine how the patterns of Global Value Chains shape the evolving geography of optimal trade agreements. Our results confirm that the endogenous geography of RTAs is shaped by the development of GVCs. ; Une grande attention a été accordée à la nature endogène des accords commerciaux régionaux. La géographie, la taille économique ou l'histoire commune aident à prévoir les accords régionaux (ACR) signés. Cependant, tous les ACR signés ne sont pas "naturels" du point de vue des seuls déterminants économiques, dans la mesure où les négociations commerciales peuvent être utilisées comme un outil de politique extérieure.Les développements récents en termes de modèles structurels de gravité des échanges aident à clarifier ce débat en prenant en compte l'ensemble des déterminants théoriques du commerce bilatéral. En effet, l'endogénéité des accords commerciaux a une dimension temporelle et est liée aux stratégies des firmes. Ces deux mécanismes sont abordés ici : nous estimons a probabilité pour chaque paire de pays de signer un accord commercial et utilisons la gravité structurelle en équilibre général pour déterminer comment les chaînes de valeur mondiales façonnent la géographie optimale des accords commerciaux. Nos résultats confirment que la géographie endogène des ACR est façonnée par le développement des chaînes de valeurs mondiales.

There are close to 3,000 international investment agreements (IIAs) that aim to protect and promote cross-border investment. Do they achieve their main purpose? This paper provides novel firm-level evidence on the effects of IIAs on location decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in a multi-country context. It uses unique micro-level data on the location of MNEs' affiliates globally and country-pair data on the coverage and content of treaties over a twenty-year period (1990-2010). It finds that IIAs, in particular those with the investor state dispute settlement (ISDS), increase the probability of MNEs' first foreign entry when they are accompanied by a double-taxation treaty. This interaction between investment and tax treaties can have important policy implications.

There are close to 3,000 international investment agreements (IIAs) that aim to protect and promote cross-border investment. Do they achieve their main purpose? This paper provides novel firm-level evidence on the effects of IIAs on location decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in a multi-country context. It uses unique micro-level data on the location of MNEs' affiliates globally and country-pair data on the coverage and content of treaties over a twenty-year period (1990-2010). It finds that IIAs, in particular those with the investor state dispute settlement (ISDS), increase the probability of MNEs' first foreign entry when they are accompanied by a double-taxation treaty. This interaction between investment and tax treaties can have important policy implications.

There are close to 3,000 international investment agreements (IIAs) that aim to protect and promote cross-border investment. Do they achieve their main purpose? This paper provides novel firm-level evidence on the effects of IIAs on location decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in a multi-country context. It uses unique micro-level data on the location of MNEs' affiliates globally and country-pair data on the coverage and content of treaties over a twenty-year period (1990-2010). It finds that IIAs, in particular those with the investor state dispute settlement (ISDS), increase the probability of MNEs' first foreign entry when they are accompanied by a double-taxation treaty. This interaction between investment and tax treaties can have important policy implications.

There are close to 3,000 international investment agreements (IIAs) that aim to protect and promote cross-border investment. Do they achieve their main purpose? This paper provides novel firm-level evidence on the effects of IIAs on location decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in a multi-country context. It uses unique micro-level data on the location of MNEs' affiliates globally and country-pair data on the coverage and content of treaties over a twenty-year period (1990-2010). It finds that IIAs, in particular those with the investor state dispute settlement (ISDS), increase the probability of MNEs' first foreign entry when they are accompanied by a double-taxation treaty. This interaction between investment and tax treaties can have important policy implications.

There are close to 3,000 international investment agreements (IIAs) that aim to protect and promote cross-border investment. Do they achieve their main purpose? This paper provides novel firm-level evidence on the effects of IIAs on location decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in a multi-country context. It uses unique micro-level data on the location of MNEs' affiliates globally and country-pair data on the coverage and content of treaties over a twenty-year period (1990-2010). It finds that IIAs, in particular those with the investor state dispute settlement (ISDS), increase the probability of MNEs' first foreign entry when they are accompanied by a double-taxation treaty. This interaction between investment and tax treaties can have important policy implications.