Suchergebnisse

Following an ultimatum from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to halt rising food prices, the nation's largest grocery store chains have announced prices freezes on many items. Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said the government will monitor grocers' efforts and if officials feel those efforts aren't enough, "everything is still on the table."

This paper documents the fundamental changes in family formation that took place in Europe during the last two decades of the twentieth century, as well as some possible explanations for these changes. First, European youth have postponed key demographic events, and the latest-late pattern of transition to adulthood emerged in the South. Second, lowest-low fertility emerged during the 1990s in the same area, spreading quickly to Central and Eastern Europe. Policies and economic trends, long-standing cultural factors and ideational change interact in shaping change and differences. Macro-level factors in turn interact with micro-level ones to shape outcomes. The new demographic regime of Europe is thus likely to persist.

Total fertility rates fell to previously unseen levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of TFRs below 1.3 raised the possibility of rapid population aging and decline. We discuss the recent widespread turnaround in so‐called lowest‐low‐fertility countries in Europe and East Asia. The number of countries with TFRs below 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008. Moreover, the upturn in the TFR was not confined to lowest‐fertility countries, but affected the whole developed world. We explore the demographic explanations for the recent rise in TFRs stemming from fertility timing effects as well as economic, policy, and social factors. Although the current economic downturn may suppress TFRs in the short run, we conclude that formerly lowest‐low‐fertility countries will continue to see increases in fertility as the transitory effects of shifts to later childbearing become less important.

Abstract:  The emergence of lowest‐low fertility in southern and eastern Europe dramatically changed the relationship between fertility and its covariates. Today, low fertility countries are characterized by low female labor force participation, low gender equity, robust marriage institution, and strong familism. It is assumed that the discrepancy between an advanced socioeconomic system and robust family patterns is an important cause of lowest‐low fertility. The Republic of Korea is a typical case where the conventional family pattern causes disharmony with socioeconomic development and depresses fertility. The direct cost of children has been rising rapidly because of the Confucian value of education and strong family ties. The tight labor market conditions and the increasing uncertainty about the future are depressing nuptiality as well as marital fertility. The robustness of traditional gender role division checks the improvement in compatibility between work and the family and sustains the high opportunity cost of childbearing. Although the Korean government announced an ambitious pronatal program in 2006, the budget is so limited that its effect is questionable. Furthermore, a large part of the difference between moderately low and lowest‐low fertility is attributed to cultural patterns and is beyond family policy.

A new theory of interest rates, the Neo-Fisherian theory, predicts a low inflation rate due to a central bank's low interest rate. After several years of near-zero interest rate policies and low and even negative infl ation rates in the eurozone and in the US, this theory gained momentum in academic circles. Indeed, central banks have had a hard time reaching their infl ation targets. This paper argues that it is not the low central bank policy rate which causes low inflation but rather the low equilibrium real interest rate, the economy's real interest rate under full employment and stable prices, in combination with the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, which restricts the effectiveness of monetary policy and causes low infl ation. In order to stabilise infl ation in the medium term, higher equilibrium real interest rates are necessary. Since monetary policy cannot move the equilibrium real interest rate, structural policies are needed.