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Quantitative sociologists conducting environmental research often use temporally lagged variables to estimate the social drivers of ecological change. To highlight the relevance of temporal lags for this scholarship, we specifically look at the longitudinal relationship between demographic and economic change and two different environmental outcomes: land development and carbon emissions. For land development, we run longitudinal spatial regression models to assess whether increasing the lag time changes the slope estimates for in‐migration and out‐migration at the county level across the contiguous United States (n = 3,026). For carbon emissions, we use cross‐national data in Prais–Winsten models to assess changes in the lagged estimates for GDP, urbanization, and age structure (n = 146). Results from these analyses indicate that the slope estimates continue to be statistically significant, but the magnitudes of these coefficients change with increased lag time. We propose that scholars use a more systematic approach when assessing the temporal duration of socio‐ecological change.

In science, the gold standard for evidence is an empirical result which is consistent across multiple studies. Meta-analysis techniques allow researchers to combine the results of different studies. Due to the increasing availability of longitudinal data, studying lagged effects is increasingly popular also in meta-analytic studies. However, in current practice, little attention is paid to the unique challenges of meta-analyzing these lagged effects. Namely, it is well known that lagged effects estimates change depending on the time that elapses between measurement waves. This means that studies that use different uniform time intervals between observations (e.g., 1 hour vs 3 hours or 1 month vs 2 months) can come to very different parameter estimates, and seemingly contradictory conclusions, about the same underlying process. In this article, we introduce, describe, and illustrate a new meta-analysis method (CTmeta) which assumes an underlying continuous-time process, and compare it with current practice.

ABSTRACTThis paper presents a simple model of endogenous cycles. In the model, working experience creates learning‐by‐doing externalities that improve labor productivity but it takes long time before the externalities come into effect. In addition, individuals have preferences with a subsistence consumption level. In the presence of the subsistence consumption requirement, a productivity increase generates the income effect that surpasses the substitution effect, and individuals choose to increase leisure time at the expense of supplying labor. The interactions between productivity changes through the lagged externalities and labor supply generate cycles endogenously. The model analysis shows that the dynamics exhibit cyclical fluctuations around a unique steady state.

Abstract
Existing studies regarding retirement planning have suggested that demographic variables, retirement-related characteristics, and work-related factors are closely associated with retirement planning. However, the importance of individual goal-pursuit tendencies within a multi-dimensional framework of retirement planning has been overlooked. As retirement planning is conceptualized as a multi-faceted and goal-directed behavior, the absence of these concepts within the literature presents an important theoretical and empirical gap. Drawing upon the dual-process model of coping, the current study examined the incremental effects of tenacious goal pursuit (TGP) and flexible goal adjustment (FGA) on four dimensions of retirement planning (i.e., financial planning, health planning, interpersonal/leisure planning, and work planning). Data from 377 Chinese older workers at two time points showed that FGA rather than TGP was positively associated with financial, health, and interpersonal/leisure planning. Further, FGA demonstrated incremental predictive validity over TGP. This study contributes to the retirement planning literature by investigating how older adults' goal-related dispositions may impact their retirement planning in different arenas. Practical implications of our findings, limitations, and future research directions are also discussed.

Recent studies have revealed the influence of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on increased medication use, hospital admission, and emergency room visits for asthma attack in children, but the lagged influence of PM2.5 on children's asthma and geographic disparities of children's asthma have rarely been discussed simultaneously. This study investigated the documented diagnosis of children's asthma in clinic visits for children aged less than 15 years old that were associated with PM2.5 in two counties located in west-central Taiwan during 2005–2010. The result shows that PM2.5 had a significant lagged effect on children's asthma for up to 6 days. A significantly higher relative risk for children's asthma was more likely to happen at 2-day lag compared to the present day when PM2.5 increased from 36.17 μg/m3 to 81.26 μg/m3. Considering all lagged effects, the highest relative risk for children's asthma was 1.08 (95% CI = 1.05, 1.11) as PM2.5 increased as high as 64.66 μg/m3. In addition, geographic disparities of children's asthma were significant, and 47.83% of areas were identified to have children vulnerable to asthma. To sum up, our findings can serve as a valuable reference for the implementation of an early warning to governmental agencies about a susceptible population of children.

Recent studies have revealed the influence of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on increased medication use, hospital admission, and emergency room visits for asthma attack in children, but the lagged influence of PM2.5 on children's asthma and geographic disparities of children's asthma have rarely been discussed simultaneously. This study investigated the documented diagnosis of children's asthma in clinic visits for children aged less than 15 years old that were associated with PM2.5 in two counties located in west-central Taiwan during 2005–2010. The result shows that PM2.5 had a significant lagged effect on children's asthma for up to 6 days. A significantly higher relative risk for children's asthma was more likely to happen at 2-day lag compared to the present day when PM2.5 increased from 36.17 μg/m3 to 81.26 μg/m3. Considering all lagged effects, the highest relative risk for children's asthma was 1.08 (95% CI = 1.05, 1.11) as PM2.5 increased as high as 64.66 μg/m3. In addition, geographic disparities of children's asthma were significant, and 47.83% of areas were identified to have children vulnerable to asthma. To sum up, our findings can serve as a valuable reference for the implementation of an early warning to governmental agencies about a susceptible population of children.

Objective: Personality has long been assumed to be a cause of religiosity, not a consequence. Yet, recent research suggests that religiosity may well cause personality change. Consequently, longitudinal research is required that examines the bi-directionality between personality and religiosity. The required research must also attend to cultural religiosity - a critical moderator in previous cross-sectional research. Method: We conducted four-wave, cross-lagged panel models assessing the bi-directional effects between religiosity (measured as religious attendance) and the Big Five personality traits over 12 years in 14 samples (Ntotal = 44,485). Each sample used population-representative data from a different German federal state - states that vary widely in religiosity. Results: The findings were the following: (1) Agreeableness, openness, and conscientiousness were associated with changes in religiosity, with the latter two effects being culture-contingent. (2) Religiosity was associated with changes in agreeableness and openness, with the latter effect being culture-contingent. (3) The cross-lagged effects of personality on religiosity were overall stronger than the reverse effects. Conclusions: The directionality between the Big Five and religiosity seems to go both ways and culture matters for those effects. We discuss the power of religiosity to alter personality and the role of culture for this effect and for personality change more generally.

The rise of sophisticated tools for tracking audiences online has begun to change the way media producers think about media audiences. This study examines this phenomenon in journalism, building on a revised theoretical model that accounts for greater audience engagement in the gatekeeping process. Research suggests that news editors, after long resisting or ignoring audience preferences, are becoming increasingly aware of and adaptive to consumer tastes as manifest via metrics. However, research also finds a gap in the news preferences of editors and audiences. This study asks: Who influences whom more in this disparity? Through longitudinal secondary data analysis of three U.S. online newspapers, and using structural equation modeling, this study finds that (a) audience clicks affect subsequent news placement, based on time-lagged analysis; (b) such influence intensifies during the course of the day; (c) there is no overall lagged effect of news placement on audience clicks; and (d) the lagged effect of audience clicks on news placement is stronger than the inverse. Implications of these findings and suggestions for future research are discussed.

AbstractA genetically informed longitudinal cross‐lagged model was applied to twin data to explore etiological links between difficult temperament and negative parenting in early childhood. The sample comprised 313 monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs. Difficult temperament and negative parenting were assessed at ages 2 and 3 using parent ratings. Both constructs were interrelated within and across age (rs .34–.47) and showed substantial stability (rs .65–.68). Difficult temperament and negative parenting were influenced by genetic and environmental factors at ages 2 and 3. The genetic and nonshared environmental correlations (rs .21–.76) at both ages suggest overlap at the level of etiology between the phenotypes. Significant bidirectional associations between difficult temperament and negative parenting were found. The cross‐lagged association from difficult temperament at age 2 to negative parenting at age 3 and from negative parenting at age 2 and difficult temperament at age 3 were due to genetic, shared environmental, and nonshared environmental factors. Substantial novel genetic and nonshared environmental influences emerged at age 3 and suggest change in the etiology of these constructs over time.

AbstractThe paper investigates the changes to the Fund's bilateral surveillance policy in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2007–09 asking about the factors that caused the quick and deep shift to a systemic surveillance approach. In answering this question, the paper argues that the causes of the quick and deep transformation of IMF surveillance lie in the preceding two decades of incremental accumulation of knowledge and small transformations in policy instruments and organizational practices. In identifying the causes of present policy choices in the lessons drawn from past experience, the paper provides an example of lagged learning because the lessons drawn from the 1990s emerging market crises exerted their full impact only as a response to the global financial crisis. These findings therefore contribute to the literature that aims at showing the importance of temporality and process sequencing to explain policy change.