Suchergebnisse

Business cycles pave the way for asymmetry in the unemployment rate behavior with rapid increases during recessions and slight decreases in expansions. It, in turn, may raise the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment and the cost in terms of inflation of any demand stimulus policy. The recent jump in unemployment worldwide due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the government's stimulus package following it raises questions about the cost of such a decision. We use the smooth transition model (STR) to analyze unemployment dynamics on quarterly data over the last two decades for fifteen middle-income countries. Our results suggest the absence of hysteresis except for Bulgaria, Mexico, and Ukraine. Our policy recommendation for these countries is the necessity of labor market reforms, as hysteresis will considerably reduce any economic stimulus on unemployment. Keywords: Unemployment, Hysteresis, STR JEL: C10, J60

AbstractWhy do middle-income country governments use costlier sovereign debt markets when cheaper finance is available from official creditors? This research note argues that left-leaning governments with labor and the poor as core constituencies are likely to prioritize markets in their annual foreign borrowings. This is because markets provide an exit option from official creditor conditions that have disproportionately negative effects on working classes. This finding puts limits on disciplinary assumptions that left-leaning governments should have relatively less access to sovereign debt markets and thus use them less. Instead, left-leaning middle-income countries are likely to use proportionally more market finance as they fulfill annual foreign borrowing needs. This, in turn, shapes which middle-income countries are likely to become relatively more exposed to global debt market costs and pressures as they accumulate external debt over time.

Why do middle-income country governments use costlier sovereign debt markets when cheaper finance is available from official creditors? This research note argues that left-leaning governments with labor and the poor as core constituencies are likely to prioritize markets in their annual foreign borrowings. This is because markets provide an exit option from official creditor conditions that have disproportionately negative effects on working classes. This finding puts limits on disciplinary assumptions that left-leaning governments should have relatively less access to sovereign debt markets and thus use them less. Instead, left-leaning middle-income countries are likely to use proportionally more market finance as they fulfill annual foreign borrowing needs. This, in turn, shapes which middle-income countries are likely to become relatively more exposed to global debt market costs and pressures as they accumulate external debt over time.

This paper develops an indicator that measures the level of human capital to address the specific education and health challenges faced by middle income countries. We apply this indicator to countries in Europe and Central Asia, where productive employment requires skills that are more prevalent among higher education graduates, and where good health is associated to low levels of adult health risk factors. The Europe and Central Asia Human Capital Index (ECA-HCI) extends the World Bank's Human Capital Index by adding a measure of quality-adjusted years of higher education to the original education component, and it includes the prevalence of three adult health risk factors - obesity, smoking, and heavy drinking - as an additional proxy for latent health status. The results show that children born today in the average country in Europe and Central Asia will be almost half as productive as they would have had they reached the benchmark of complete education and full health. Countries with good basic education outcomes do not necessarily have good higher education outcomes, and high prevalence of adult health risk factors can offset good education indicators. This extension of the Human Capital Index could also be useful for assessing the state of human capital in middle-income countries in general.

In recent decades low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been witnessing a significant shift toward raised blood pressure; yet in LMICs, only 1 in 3 are aware of their hypertension status, and ≈8% have their blood pressure controlled. This rising burden widens the inequality gap, contributes to massive economic hardships of patients and carers, and increases costs to the health system, facing challenges such as low physician-to-patient ratios and lack of access to medicines. Established risk factors include unhealthy diet (high salt and low fruit and vegetable intake), physical inactivity, tobacco and alcohol use, and obesity. Emerging risk factors include pollution (air, water, noise, and light), urbanization, and a loss of green space. Risk factors that require further in-depth research are low birth weight and social and commercial determinants of health. Global actions include the HEARTS technical package and the push for universal health care. Promising research efforts highlight that successful interventions are feasible in LMICs. These include creation of health-promoting environments by introducing salt-reduction policies and sugar and alcohol tax; implementing cost-effective screening and simplified treatment protocols to mitigate treatment inertia; pooled procurement of low-cost single-pill combination therapy to improve adherence; increasing access to telehealth and mHealth (mobile health); and training health care staff, including community health workers, to strengthen team-based care. As the blood pressure trajectory continues creeping upward in LMICs, contextual research on effective, safe, and cost-effective interventions is urgent. New emergent risk factors require novel solutions. Lowering blood pressure in LMICs requires urgent global political and scientific priority and action.

Many small middle-income countries (SMICs) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have experienced a moderation in growth in recent years. Although factor accumulation, most notably capital deepening, was crucial to the success of many SMICs historically, this growth model appears to have run its course. The analysis in this paper suggests that the decline in the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth is largely responsible for the slowdown in trend growth in many SMICs, which highlights the need for policy actions to reinvigorate productivity growth. This paper explores the question o

Foreword / Pedro C. Hallal -- Moving forward, moving more : putting low and middle-income countries firmly on the global physical activity agenda / Katja Siefken, Andrea Ramirez Varela, Temo Waqanivalu, Nico Schulenkorf -- Global physical activity : international perspectives with emphasis on low and middle-income countries / Andrea Ramirez Varela, Bojana Klepac Pogrmilovic, Pedro Hallal, Catalina del Portillo, Željko Pedišić, Harold Kohl, and Mike Pratt -- Physical activity : challenges and opportunities in low and middle income countries / Inácio Crochemore-Silva, Alan G. Knuth, Grégore I. Mielke, Andrea Wendt, and José Cazuza de Farias Júnior -- Physical activity policy actions : what is the role of governments? / Bill Bellew, Tracy Nau, Benjamin Smith, Bojana Klepac Pogrmilovic, Željko Pedišić, and Adrian Bauman -- Active societies : the global action plan on physical activity in low and middle income countries / Nicolas Aguilar-Farias and Sebastian Miranda-Marquez -- Physical activity surveillance in the context of low and middle income countries / Željko Pedišić, Cora L. Craig, and Adrian E. Bauman -- Foreign aid, the soft power of sport, and the sustainable development goals : an analysis of Australia's sport for development in the Pacific program / Thomas Wanner -- Progress and opportunities for advancing physical activity behavior change in LMICs / Lilian Perez, Elva Arredondo, Ding Ding, and Gregory W. Heath -- Case study from Latin America : understanding the relationship between the built environment and physical activity in Latin American contexts / Eugen Resendiz, Alejandra Jáuregui, and Deborah Salvo -- Case study from Africa : physical activity and safety from crime and traffic / Adewale L. Oyeyemi, Tracy L. Kolbe-Alexander, and Estelle V. Lambert -- Case study from the South Pacific : women's sport participation in Fiji : through a lens of structural inequality / Yoko Kanemasu, James Johnson, and Atele Dutt -- Case study from Central America : challenges and opportunities for physically active lifestyles in girls and young women in Costa Rica and countries in Central America / Inés M. Revuelta-Sánchez and Gerardo A. Araya-Vargas -- Case study from Asia : push for pedal power : urban mobility and rise of bicycling in Indian cities / Deepti Adlakha, Felix John -- Case study from Asia : active transportation: the missing part of the puzzle for physical activity promotion in India / Shifalika Goenka and Raji Devarajan -- Case study from Eastern Europe : physical activity in the Czech Republic a society in transformation / Josef Mitáš and Karel Frömel -- Moving the agenda forward : reflections and future outlook on physical activity in low and middle income countries / Nico Schulenkorf, Temo Waqanivalu, Andrea Ramirez, and Katja Siefken.