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This book arose out of research carried out by the authors in the period 1983-1987 whilst at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. A number of things combined to impart the basic thrust of the research: partly the developments in formulating and estimating rational expectations models, and partly actual developments in the UK economy itself. An application of recent developments in dynamic modelling to a complete macroeconometric model of the UK is presented. Rational expectations modelling, co-integration and disequilibrium modelling are covered. The book also develops computational procedures for obtaining efficient solutions to large-scale models, and illustrates model solutions assuming rational expectations and stochastic simulations. Finally, sections on the analysis of models using optimal control methods illustrate applications of a large-scale econometric model. This section also discusses policy applications, including the derivation of time-consistent policies in the presence of rational expectations, giving quantified illustrations.

This book collects the revised and edited proceedings of the conference held in honour of the 50th anniversary of Professor Tinbergen's first macroeconomic policy model. Written by experts both in the field of model building and policy analysis, the contributions provide an invaluable overview of the state of the art and the use of macroeconomic models in our time.

Danmark er midt i en omstilling mod et samfund med netto nul drivhusgasudledning. Omstillingen vil have vidtrkkende konsekvenser for husholdninger, virksomheder og den danske statskasse. Virksomheder vil potentielt skulle investere store summer i ny teknologi (fx CCS-teknologi til at fange CO2 fra cementproduktion). Husholdningerne vil skulle investere vsentlige belb, fx i energirenoveringer. Og endeligt star statskassen til at miste afgiftsindtgter efterhanden som fossile brndsler udfases. I lyset af de vidtrkkende konsekvenser ved en sadan omstilling, er der behov for at sikre det bedst mulige grundlag for at fre klima- og energipolitik. Et beslutningsgrundlag der br fange savel de tekniske muligheder som de a edte makrokonomiske ved nye politiktiltag. Denne afhandling bidrager i srlig grad til litteraturen ved at udvikle en ny metode til at konsolidere de tekniske og de makrokonomiske eekter. Afhandlingen bidrager desuden ved at implementere metoden i den danske IntERACT model. Et andet centralt bidrag fra denne afhandling er, at metoden gr det muligt at medregne de makrokonomiske virkninger knyttet til investeringer i nye teknologier. Afhandlingen eksemplicerer betydningen af disse investeringer ved at betragte eekten af en politik, der tvinger den danske cementsektor til at investeringer i CCS -teknologi. En sadan politik medfrer en betydelig reduktion i den danske cementproduktion og en CO2-lkage-eekt pa op mod 88%. Politikeksperimentet viser endvidere, at halvdelen af fremkaldte fald i BNP flger af de ekstra kapitalomkostninger forbundet med investeringer i CCS-teknologien. Et andet omrade, hvor denne afhandling bidrager til litteraturen er ved modellering og analyse af energieektiviseringspolitik for husholdninger og erhvervslivet. Overordnet understreger dette bidrag, at IntERACT-modellen fanger savel det tekniske potentiale for specikke teknologier, betydningen af barrierer for udbredelsen af teknologier, samt det makrokonomiske feedback knyttet til konkret energieektiviseringspolitik. For husholdningernes varmeforbrug bidrager afhandlingen ved at videreudvikle IntERACT-modellen sa den kan simulere virkningen af politik rettet mod husholdningernes investerings- og varmeeftersprgselsadfrd. Detaljegraden i IntERACT gr det muligt at fange rebounde ekten (fra lavere varmepriser) savel som den samlede eekt pa den disponible indkomst ved politiktiltag, der reducerer barrierer knyttet til energibesparelser. For industrisektorer viser afhandlingen, hvordan energieektivitetspolitik kan evalueres ved at dekomponere resultaterne fra IntERACT-modellen i entydige aktivitet-, pris- og teknologieffekter. Afhandlingen viser vigtigheden af at inkludere alle tre eekter, nar man vurderer den samlede eekt af energieektivitetspolitik. Afhandlingen demonstrerer, hvordan strrelsen pa pris- og aktivitetseekter varierer betydeligt pa tvrs af sektorer. Tidligere undersgelser har forsgt at evaluere enkelte af disse eekter, men ingen har indtil nu vret i stand til at redegre for den simultane interaktionen mellem de tre eekter. ; Denmark is in the midst of a fundamental transition towards a low carbon economy. The agreed-upon policy states that this transition should be completed by the year 2050, while the recently formed Danish government is aiming for a 70 % CO2{reduction by 2030. Such a fundamental transition will have repercussions throughout the broader economy. It is hence necessary to have modeling tools capable of providing insights into both what is economically viable and technically feasible. Contributing to the development of such a model has been the object of this thesis. The resulting model, named IntERACT, includes a detailed description of the Danish macro economy and the Danish energy system, and not least a novel method for capturing how the two systems interact. This dissertation pursues four research questions. First, how can a national energy system model be constructed to help prioritize and describe optimal socioeconomic pathways to a low-emission society across all sectors? Second, how can a national energy system model and a national computable general equilibrium model be linked to improve the policy decision-making process? Third, what is the potential for meeting Danish energy savings obligations by targeting households' investment behavior? And last, how can the challenge of ex-ante evaluation of energy eciency policy for industry sectors be evaluated systematically within a modeling context? The rst principal contribution made by this thesis is the development of the linking method; and the implementation of this technique into the IntERACT model. The thesis further demonstrates how the IntERACT model makes it possible to capture the macroeconomic eect of fuel and technology-specic measures within the energy system, with a hitherto unseen degree of consistency. The second principal contribution of this thesis is in demonstrating how the IntERACT model facilitates the ex-ante evaluation of energy eciency policies.

Market Behaviour and Macroeconomic Modelling discusses several state-of-the-art developments in the modelling approach to market behaviour in macroeconomic modelling. Leading experts in this field, deal with the implications of market imperfections in commodity markets, capital markets and labour markets for macroeconomic modelling and stabilization policy. They demonstrate that incorporating market imperfections leads to very different policy recommendations than those derived from the standard perfect competition model.

Macroeconometric models, in many ways the flagships of the economist's profession in the 1960s, came under increasing attack from both theoretical economist and practitioners in the late 1970s. Critics referred to their lack of microeconomic theoretical foundations, ad hoc models of expectations, lack of identification, neglect of dynamics and non-stationarity, and poor forecasting properties. By the start of the 1990s, the status of macroeconometric models had declined markedly, . and had fallen completely out of, and with, academic economics. Nevertheless, unlike the dinosaurs to which they o.