Suchergebnisse

This is a personal account of the definition of "new developmentalism" - a national development strategy alternative to the Washington consensus -, and of a "structuralist development macroeconomics": the sum of models that justifies theoretically that strategy. It is personal account of a collective work involving Keynesian, institutionalist and structuralist economists in Brazil that are forming a new school of thought in Brazil: a Keynesian-structuralist school. It is Keynesian because it emphasizes the demand side or the investment opportunities' side of economic growth. It is institutionalist because institutions obviously matter in achieving growth and stability. It is structuralist because it defines economic development as a structural change from low to high value added per capita industries and because it is based on two structural tendencies that limit investment opportunities: the tendency of wages to grow below productivity and the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate. (Rev Econ Polit/GIGA)

A new Keynesian-struturalist school of thought is emerging in Brazil. It is formed by a Structuralist Development Macroeconomics that offers scientific explanation to New Developmentalism - a national development strategy. In this intervention the author delineates its main theoretical claims and policies. (Rev Econ Polit/GIGA)

Development conventions in Lula's mandates: an essay on political economy. This article analyses the different development proposals put forward during the two Lula Presidential mandates. It is argued that such proposals are structured as "development conventions", which involve different priorities and different solutions to the problem of structural transformation. Their analytical frame is also different as are the interest groups which uphold them. Therefore their epistemology must be placed in the political economy context. It is argued that, notwithstanding the weight gained by a "developmental" convention over the second mandate, a "stability" convention is still hegemonic and commands macroeconomic policies. (Rev Econ Polit/GIGA)

This article analyzes the influence of macroeconomic variables on the stock market. The analysis of this theme is crucial in the current economic context given the severe crisis and the continued growth of the stock market. This article covers an existing research gap about current stock market movements. The Geneneralized Least Squares Method with Prais-Winsten transformation was applied to correct the first-order autoregressive problem. The results show that the macroeconomic variables continue to influence Ibovespa, as stated in the literature. However, the central government's financial stability variable has no explanatory power over the Brazilian stock market index, corroborating the literature and converging with the empirical observations from 2016 to 2019 of fiscal imbalance and growth of the Ibovespa. ; Este trabalho analisa a influência das variáveis macroeconômicas sobre o mercado acionário. Trata-se de uma temática importante a ser examinada no atual contexto econômico, que se destaca pela grave crise e pelo contínuo crescimento do mercado acionário. Dessa forma, cobre-se uma lacuna de pesquisa existente sobre os atuais movimentos do mercado acionário. Para alcançar esses objetivos foi aplicado o método dos mínimos quadrados generalizados com correção de prais-winsten, que visa a corrigir o problema autorregressivo de primeira ordem. Os resultados mostram que as variáveis macroeconômicas continuam exercendo influência sobre o Ibovespa, conforme preconiza a literatura. No entanto, a variável de estabilidade financeira do governo central não possui poder explicativo sobre o índice do mercado acionário nacional, estando de acordo com outros autores e convergindo com as observações empíricas presenciadas de 2016 a 2019, de desequilíbrio fiscal e crescimento do Ibovespa.

O Estado e o mercado são instituições complementares. O Estado é a instituição principal que coordena as sociedades modernas; é o sistema constitucional e a organização que o garante; é o principal instrumento por meio do qual as sociedades democráticas estão moldando o capitalismo de modo a alcançar seus próprios objetivos políticos. Os mercados são instituições baseadas na competição regulada pelo Estado para que contribuam com a coordenação da economia. Enquanto o liberalismo emergiu no século XVIII para combater o Estado autocrático, desde os anos 1980 o neoliberalismo (uma distorção maior do liberalismo econômico) tornou-se dominante e montou um assalto ao Estado em nome do mercado, mas eventualmente também atacou o mercado. A macroeconomia neoclássica e a teoria da escolha pública foram as metaideologias que deram a esse assalto um apelo "científico" e matemático. ; State and market are complementary institutions. The state is the major institution coordinating modern societies; it is the constitutional system and the organizations guaranteeing it; it is the main instrument through which democratic societies have been changing capitalism so as to achieve their own agreed political objectives. Markets are institutions based on competition which the state regulates so that they contribute to the coordination of the economy. While liberalism emerged in the 18th century to fight an autocratic state, since the 1980s neoliberalism (a major distortion of economic liberalism) became dominant and mounted a political assault to the state in the name of the market, but eventually also attacked the market. Neoclassical macroeconomics and public choice theory were the meta-ideologies that gave to this assault a "scientific" and mathematical allure.