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The Rt. Hon. Gordon Brown grew up the son of a minister in an industrial Scottish town before ascending the ranks of Britain's Labour Party to eventually serve as Prime Minister. Since leaving office, The Rt. Hon. Brown has focused on social justice, most recently speaking out on the shortfalls in the international response to Covid-19. He joined David to talk about his concerns over increased nationalism in Europe and around the globe, how he views the United States' role in world affairs, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and how almost losing his eye sight led to a career in politics.
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LdN260 Stand der Regierungsbildung, (Interview: Jamila Schäfer), YouTube löscht Kanal "RT Deutsch", Berliner Wahlchaos, Digitaler Führerschein floppt

by Joseph Cordonnier and Deger Saygin, OECD Environment Directorate Although policy makers and industry acknowledge the urgency of action for the net-zero industry transition in emerging and developing economies, the investment challenge remains significant. The manufacturing industry serves society with a variety materials and...

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Young girls in Niger. Erick Kaglan / World Bank






















Nearly every country around the world is grappling with more than one crisis: the still-simmering pandemic and continued vulnerability to future health emergencies; historic spikes in food insecurity, exacerbated by supply shortages arising from the war in Ukraine; fragility, conflict, and violence; and the steadily rising tide of climate change's assaults on the environment.

Neutralizing even one of these crises can be confounding and perilous. Some countries, unfortunately, face them all at once, fighting on multiple fronts. That usually keeps them from attending to the longer-term task of giving people the knowledge, skills, access to health care, and opportunities they need to live out their full productive potential. Investing in resilient, shock-responsive systems is critical to protect human-capital gains and improve resilience to future shocks.

Niger is an example of a country that faces many complex and interconnected challenges. Shocks and crises are increasingly frequent and overlapping in Niger, disrupting efforts to sustain broad-based growth, build human capital, and reduce poverty. Regional instability has led to the displacement of families and the closure of schools, threatening social stability and increasing insecurity; that, in turn, complicated Niger's efforts to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic and worsened the food insecurity that is now affecting more than 4.4 million of the country's people. Climate shocks have triggered localized flooding, while steady rises in temperatures threaten the more than 80 percent of Niger's citizens who depend on agriculture for their nourishment and livelihoods.

The government of Niger is determined not to lose any ground in its steady climb to protect and invest in all its citizens by pressing ahead with programs and reforms that are having transformational impact on people's lives. A great example of this is the Wadata Talaka safety-net program, a partnership between Niger and the World Bank that focuses on poverty reduction, resilience building, and women's empowerment. The program provides monthly cash transfers to extremely poor households to smooth their consumption expenditures and improve their ability to cope with shocks. It also provides "economic inclusion" support—life and micro-entrepreneurship skills training, coaching, and support to village savings groups—and helps poor children get essential mental stimulation in their early years. Such programs can respond quickly to help poor and vulnerable families prepare for, cope with, and adapt to shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic: As the virus spread, the program expanded to four hundred thousand households to protect them from the pandemic's adverse economic consequences. The program is well-placed to assist poor households with rising food insecurity and climate shocks.

A successful response will need to include supporting women and innovation. Because women are the primary beneficiaries of Wadata Talaka, the program is an important vehicle for their empowerment. Evaluations of the economic inclusion program show that in the eighteen months since it began, it improved household consumption and food security. The total income of women beneficiaries has increased (by 60 to 100 percent, much of it from non-farm businesses), and there is strong evidence of gains in their mental health and social wellbeing.

To develop such systems reaching the poorest and most vulnerable, countries will need strong social registries and good enrollment, delivery, and payment systems, often leveraging technology. The government of Niger is fully committed to these efforts. For example, responding to climate change, Wadata Talaka was the first program of its kind in West Africa to use satellite data to quickly anticipate drought hotspots and provide emergency funds more quickly than usual (three months ahead of the traditional response) to help people before they entered the lean season. Research is currently underway to measure the impact of that speed.

At a time when countries are forced to contend with the ebb and flow of shocks like climate change, pandemics, conflict, or food price increases, investments in social protection systems are more critical than ever. Niger's programs serve as an example of just how impactful such adaptive systems can be.

This blog was initially published on Atlantic Council site.









Topics

Climate Change
Environment
Fragility Conflict and Violence
Inequality and Shared Prosperity
Jobs & Development
Poverty
Social Protection









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Niger









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Mamta Murthi
Vice President for Human Development
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Mahamadou Ouhoumoudou
Prime Minister of Niger
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LdN283 Ukraine-Krieg (5. Woche), Interview Claudia Major (SWP), Gas-/Öl-Boykott, Energiepreis-Hilfen, Anhörung Impfpflicht, Verbot von RT, Rechtsextremer als Richter, Lage-Feature: Transkriptionen

Nach Ausbruch der Corona-Pandemie wurde im bereits laufenden Semester ein Forschungsseminar angepasst: Per Videokonferenz interviewten die Studierenden insgesamt 33 Mitglieder des Bundestages zu ihrer Wahlkreisarbeit während der Krise. Dabei ging es um Fragen der Organisation, aber auch des Repräsentationsverständnisses. Die Gespräche wurden anschließend inhaltsanalytisch ausgewertet und die Erkenntnisse für eine Buchpublikation vorbereitet. So gestalteten und erlebten die Studierenden gemeinsam den gesamten Forschungsprozess.

LdN277 Diplomatie für Ukraine, Baerbock holt Greenpeace-Chefin, Corona-Lockerungen, allgemeine und spezielle Impfpflicht, RT DE/Deutsche Welle (Interview Bijan Moini), Alltag von Trans-Personen (Interview Nyke Slawik)

Last year, climate action was all about declaring dates for achieving net-zero carbon emissions. At the 2021 UN's climate change conference in Glasgow, COP26, India pledged that it would reach net-zero by 2070, a date just 10 years behind China, despite its per capita emissions being some 30 years behind China's and only half the…

This week we are looking at the politics of climate change. More specifically, how should political institutions be designed to maximise action towards net zero?

This post was motivated by a conversation with Eric Lonergan. It began with a simple question: what should be the interest rate paid on reserves? I answered that according to theories I'm familiar with, reserves should earn the "natural" rate of interest, which I defined as the sum of population and productivity growth. So, assuming 2% "real" growth and 2% inflation, reserves (and government debt more generally) should be yielding around 4%. I think it's fair to say most people did not find my answer very satisfying. So I thought I'd take a moment to explain how I arrived at it. I want to do so in the context of a model economy. Let me describe the model first. We can discuss its limitations and possible extensions later on. Consider an economy where people live for two periods; they are "young" and then become "old." Let N(t) denote the population of young at date t. Assume that the population grows at (gross) rate n; that is, N(t) = nN(t-1). In this "overlapping generations" model, the population at date t is given by N(t)+N(t-1). Individuals in this economy generate y units of perishable output (goods and services) when they are young. I'm going to treat y as fixed over time. This implies that the RGDP at date t is given by N(t)y and that the RGDP grows at rate n over time (there is no productivity growth). In what follows, I label n the "natural" rate of interest. Suppose that people only value consumption when they are old. This poses an interesting economic problem. The young can produce goods that the old value, but the old have no way of paying for these goods. Private credit markets don't work here. The cooperative solution is very simple: the young should "gift" their goods y to the old. If everyone followed this cooperative protocol, then the young of generation t would consume (in their old age) c(t+1) = N(t+1)y/N(t) = ny. That is, by following this protocol, it's as if the young "deposit" their income y in a savings account that generates a (gross) real yield equal to n, the "natural" rate of interest. Since private competitive markets cannot be expected to implement this socially-desirable outcome, what other mechanisms might be employed? In small communities, reciprocal gift exchange seems to work quite well. In the present context, the young look after their parents, expecting their children to return the favor, and so on. Larger communities need to rely on other mechanisms. In the present context, a PAYGO social security system that taxes the young y and pays the old ny would do the trick. The same outcome could be achieved through monetary exchange. Suppose the government lets all individuals open a central bank money account. The government creates (out of thin air) M dollars and credit the accounts of the "initial old" with M/N(0) dollars. Assume that M is kept constant over time. The old are expected to spend these dollars on a competitive spot market, where goods exchange for dollars at price p(t). The equilibrium price-level is easy to derive in this example. At any date t, we have N(t-1) old people collectively holding M dollars. These M dollars will be spent (the old have no reason not to) on the goods available for sale, N(t)y. The market-clearing condition here is M = p(t)N(t)y at every date t. Because both M and y are constant, and because population N(t) is growing at rate n, it follows that the equilibrium price-level p(t) must be falling at rate n. So, if we interpret M as "reserves" in this model economy, then reserves yielding the natural rate of interest would be consistent with economic efficiency. If reserves yield zero nominal interest rate, then efficiency requires some deflation. But the same outcome is possible if reserves were to yield a nominal interest rate n in a zero-inflation rate regime. This result continues to hold for more general preferences. Suppose that people care about consumption when young and old. Then the young will only want to consume a fraction of their income. That fraction will depend on (among other things) the real rate of return they expect on their retirement savings. As it turns out, the so-called "Golden Rule" allocation requires that money/bonds yield the natural rate of interest. Is this a good place to start thinking about Eric's question? It may be a good place to start, but we don't want to stop here. The analytical framework above is "bare bones." Among other things, my analysis implicitly assumes that there is no difference between reserves and government treasury securities. Does this matter? If it does, the reasons need to be spelled out. What modifications to the simple model above would imply that to meet a given social objective, it is desirable to have reserves yield less than treasury securities? In reality there is duration risk. But why does the Treasury issue bonds with different maturities in the first place? Moreover, why are these bonds purposefully rendered illiquid (for example, by discouraging the Fed from monetizing the entire bond issue or, at least, from setting up standing purchase facilities?). The answers to these questions are not immediately obvious to me. But they may be to you! 

Durch die Beschneidung des Internet wird nicht nur das Surfen generell zur Qual, auch die Schule sowie das wissenschaftliche Arbeiten wird kompliziert, wenn nicht sogar unmöglich. Wenn man manche Seiten beschneiden kann, so wird zensiert, und eine Meinungsvielfalt ist nicht mehr gegeben. Da wir das unseren Schülern gerade in der politischen Bildung nicht zumuten können, wäre dies ein starker Einbruch an Methodenvielfalt, das Internet wäre nur noch begrenzt nutzbar, und man müsste wieder den langen Weg in Bibliotheken machen oder mehrere Zeitungen abonnieren, welche natürlich auch von verschiedenen Firmen herausgegeben werden.
Quelle: http://www.edcircuit.com/net-neutrality-schools-matters/

The issue: On June 11, 2018, the Federal Communications Commission's repeal of the Open Internet Order—the net neutrality rules—went into effect. In the wake of this change, Americans are wondering how the repeal will affect them, and what it means for the future of internet access. Though consumers may not see changes quickly, the shift…

The quote in the title should be the motto for the 2018-2019 FOMC. For the FOMC is set to raise its interest rate target next week and expected to raise it several times more in 2019 despite a flattening treasury yield curve.






As seen in the above chart, the outright inversion of the treasury yield typically leads to a recession.  Despite this robust pattern, a growing number of Fed officials have become emboldened in their dismissal of it "since this time is different."  As Caroline Baum notes, 

In April, John Williams acknowledged that an inverted yield curve is "a powerful signal of recessions," based on a significant body of research, including that by staff economists at his former bank. 

By September, Williams was already disavowing that signal. "I don't see the flat yield curve or inverted yield curve as being the deciding factor in terms of where we should go with policy," Williams said following a speech in Buffalo on Sept. 6. 

Next up was Fed Gov. Lael Brainard. She broke new ground in a speech last week when she... invoked the four most dangerous words in finance — "this time is different" — and applied them to the prospect of an inverted yield curve.

To be fair, President John Williams and Governor Lael Brainard are simply expressing the natural implications of the FOMC projected path for interest rates. As I noted before, the FOMC's own summary of economic projections implies a yield curve inversion over the next year or so. The FOMC, in short, is becoming increasingly dismissive of fears about inverting the yield curve. That is why the title of this post should be their motto for 2018-2019. Here is a t-shirt you can buy to commemorate this surge in FOMC boldness:







Some observers side with Fed officials arguing that "this time is indeed different" because the term premium is so low. To that I would first remind them that former Fed chair Ben Bernanke made a similar argument in 2006. As it turned out, the term premium had declined but so had the expected path of short-term interest rates. This can be seen in the figure below, which is constructed using the New York Fed's estimates of term premiums. It shows the 10-year minus 1-year treasury spread decomposed into (1) an expected rate path spread and (2) a term premium spread. These two component add up to the overall spread. The lesson here for the FOMC is to avoid falling for the siren call of the term premium excuse.







I would also remind naysayers that even if it were the case that the flattening of the yield curve is all due to a lowering of the term premium, the inverting of the yield curve still matters for financial intermediation. An inverted yield curve means smaller net interest margins for financial firms and thus less financial intermediation. That is, once the yield curve inverts, it goes from being a predictive tool to a causal agent. So even in the best-case scenario, one should not be cavalier about inverting the yield curve. Be careful FOMC.



P.S. Here is the backside of the t-shirt:

The first in a special 3-part series on antitrust law. In the wake of the approved merger between giants AT&T and Time Warner, Kate and Luigi talk with a leading expert, Carl Shapiro, about the evolving concept of consumer welfare and whether antitrust law needs to change with the times.

I started my PhD journey in 2018, with much excitement and anxiety. I wasn’t sure of what to expect but I knew this is where I was meant to be. At the end of the road, I find I have had an incredibly meaningful and transformative experience. I have many friends and family to thank … Continued