Suchergebnisse

The rapid growth in Islamic Finance Industry such as in Islamic banking, takaful, waqf, and sukuk gain more awareness and interest from around the world including Islamic countries and non-Islamic countries such as Singapore, South Korea, Japan, Europe, Australia, Brazil, and America Latin. Based on Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB) and Ernst & Young Report in 2016 it stated that Islamic finance industry had reached a gross value USD 1.88 trillion in 2015. In addition, it also maintained double-digit growth rates despite sustained low energy prices, geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, Global Islamic Finance Report 2017 reported that in December 2016 global Islamic financial service industry stood at USD2.293 trillion. According to El-Qorchi (2005) that highlights there have three motivation of shifting to Islamic finance because strong demand for Shariah compliant products and services, demand from Gulf region or oil rich nation for Shariah compliant investment and lastly non-muslim investor also attracted with competitiveness of Shariah compliant products and services. Furthermore, there have numerous capital structure modern theories that have been developed since 1958 begin with MM Irrelevance Theory and continue with Trade-off Theory, Pecking Order Theory, Agency Theory and Market Timing Theory. As an example, trade-off theory is encouraging the firms to use debt financing rather than retained earnings and equity financing in order to utilise the tax deduction benefit from interest on debt financing. Each of this theory has different vi approach to manage and oversee the capital structure decision. Unfortunately, not all these theories explain adequately the effect of capital structure on corporate performance for Shariah compliant companies. Therefore, the question that can been arisen which is the most appropriate and suitable capital structure theory under Shariah principles? Firstly, this study intends to determine until to what extent the capital structure of Shariah compliant companies (SCC) can be different from Non Shariah compliant companies (NSCC). Many studies have been done on capital structure. However, most of the studies focused on the capital structure determinants, impacts of capital structure on financial performance, how the tax affected capital structure and short-term debt during financial crisis period. All of these past studies using financial institution, small and medium enterprises (SME) and public listed companies (PLC) as samples in their study. Nevertheless, there are few studies relate to the impact of capital structures on corporate performance during financial crisis. Shariah compliant companies presume to be more resilent during financial crisis based on their characteristic. However, there is no study on how SCC manages their capital structure during financial crisis period. Therefore, in order to fill the research gap, it is necessary to carry out a study on impact of capital structure on corporate performance during financial crisis by using SCC as sample. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of capital structure on corporate performance of SCC predominantly during financial crisis period. To the best of our knowledge, there is no such empirical study that has been conducted until nowadays. As information, Shariah compliant companies (SCC) are deemed to comply with Shariah principles, rules, values and restrictions when dealing with the financing activities. In order to ensure SCC comply with all the Shariah principles and free from prohibited elements such as interest (riba), gambling (masyar) and speculation (gharar), Shariah advisory board (SAC) are established to monitor the SCC's activities. Besides, before being listed in Islamic index all the firms must be complying with the qualitative and quantitative criteria for screening process that are set by the index provider. This study will take the sample from FTSE Shariah global index series, therefore under this index provider, Yasaar Ltd is an impartial consultancy and leading authority on handling Shariah matters including the screening process. Under quantitative screening, there have several financial vii benchmarks that the firms need to follow in order to acquire the shariah-compliant status. According to Haron and Ibrahim (2012) due to the benchmark that are set by index provider, it leads SCC to raise capital via equity financing. Empirically, firms that rely more on equity-based financing tend to be more resilient during financial crisis period. Gitman and Zutter (2012, p.508) defines the capital structure as "the mix of debt and equity maintained by the firm". Thus, the main concern is how the firm decision to optimize the capital structures by combining debt and equity financing. There have a number of previous studies that explored how the firms or financial managers determine the optimum capital structure to ensure they can maximize the firm's corporate performance. Based on the empirical results it shows that there has numerous factor that influenced the firms and financial manager in order to make the capital structure financing decision such as profitability, growth, size, tangibility, tax, leverage, liquidity, and industry. Meanwhile, this study will focus on some financial benchmarks in order to achieve the objective of this study. Such example this study uses corporate performance, debt to equity ratio, debt financing ratio (short-term debt ratio and long-term debt ratio), tangibility ratio, cash plus account receivables ratio, growth ratio, and size ratio. Corporate Performance In this study, two proxies will be used to measure the corporate performance of the firm. Firstly, this study decides to use profit before tax and zakat over total asset or it called pre-tax return on assets (Pre-tax ROA) to measure the firm's corporate performance. This ratio is to measures how the efficiency of the firm can earn on its investment in its assets. In other words, how the firm used its assets effectively to generate the income or profit from that assets. Like the previous study that have been used earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) over total assets and profit before interest and tax to measure the firm's corporate performance. Initially, this study intends to show the different significant impact to the firm's corporate performance if the firm paying taxes or zakat or both. It is due to the SCC has special taxes that are called 'zakat' under Shariah term and it viii has fixed-rate 2.5 percent from the net profit or income. However, until nowadays zakat still voluntary basis in most of the Muslim countries. Based on the sample in this study, Malaysia is the only country that implemented zakat system however it based on voluntary basis and none of the samples shows the zakat amount in their financial statement. The second proxy in this study for dependent variables that represents for firm's corporate performance is return on equity ratio (ROE) ratio. Based on the previous studies, there has been used net income after tax over total equity to measure the ROE in their studies. Therefore, this study also decides to use the same measurement as the prior studies. This ratio will measure by the firm's profitability using net profit after interest, tax and preference dividend divided by ordinary share capital plus reserves at the end of the financial year. ROE ratio is one of the main profitability ratios that concentrate on the firm's ordinary shareholders and compares the profit that has been earned and its capital. Some of the investors are using this ratio to measure the firm's ordinary shares desirability. Debt to Equity Ratio Some of the Islamic index provider set the financial benchmark that the total debt must be less than 33 percent from the total equity. Such an example, Dow Jones Global Islamic Index (DJIM) set the debt to equity ratio as one of their financial benchmarks. However, FTSE Global Equity Shariah Index does not include this benchmark under their screening process. Therefore, this study intends to use this benchmark to see whether there have significant differences between SCC and NSCC. This study decides to use total debt divided by total equity as a measurement of debt to equity ratio. It supported by other studies such as Margaritis and Psillaki (2010) and Memon et al., (2012) that also used the same measurement in their studies. This ratio is to evaluate a firm's financial leverage by measuring the degree of firm financing based on debt to equity or wholly-owned funds. In case if the company downturn, it measures the ability of the shareholder equity to cover all the debts in the firms. ix Debt Financing Under FTSE Global Equity Shariah Index quantitative screening, the debt ratio must be less than 33 percent of total assets. Due to this study's objective to determine the impact of capital structure on corporate performance during financial crisis, therefore the debt ratio divided into two categories, which are short-term debt financing and long-term debt financing. Based on Fosberg (2013) conducted a study on public listed companies in US and found that short-term debt financing increased from 1.3 percent in 2006 to 2.2 percent in 2008 which represent $34 million increase due to the financial crisis that are happened in 2008. It supported by numerous studies (see Brealey et al., 2008; Almeida et al., 2011; Federal Reserve, 2012; Fosberg, 2013) that during the stock market collapsed in 2008, the borrowing power of firms becomes fewer than before due to the credit supply was limited. Therefore, firms intend using more STD financing during financial difficulties. Hassan and Samour (2016) added that it highlighted that capital structure financing decision were impact during financial crisis period. Cheema et.al (2017) and Shahar and Shahar (2015) found that SCC using long-term debt (LTD) financing more than short-term debt (STD) financing. It might be due to the restriction for limited interest and risk sharing under Shariah guidelines. However, for NSCC, they are using more STD in order to meet the working capital requirement. On the other hand study by Sahudin, Ismail, Sulaiman, Rahman, and Jaafar (2019) found that SCC using more STD financing compared to LTD financing. STD financing is more widely used compared to LTD financing by the SCC in Malaysia because the majority of Islamic debt instruments issued short-term debt rather than long-term debt (Aggarwal & Yousef, 2000). This also supports agency theory whereby it justifies the function of STD financing as a mechanism to control the debt and mitigate the agency problem. Therefore, this study intends to examine the significant differences in financing patterns particularly before, during and after the financial crisis period. x Tangibility Ratio Tangibility assets become more popular as a measurement for bank viability after the financial crisis occurred. Bank viability means the bank's judgment on the ability of the firms to meet ongoing financial obligation with the additional investment and financing such as from the banks and investors. One of the reasons because tangible assets are liquid compared to intangible assets. It supported by Charalambakis and Garrett (2012) that stated tangible assets are the main point in explaining the capital structure within the firms. As a result, tangible assets have a higher value in the market and even if firms have financial problem or going to bankrupt, the firms can easily and quickly in selling their tangible assets. Scott (1977) and Titman and Wessels (1988) stated that less profitable firm intends to have a high value of tangible assets and the firms will use tangible assets as collateral in order to get more debt financing. Therefore, any firm that has higher tangibility ratio will issue more debt financing. This is in line with trade-off theory that highlight, firms need to enjoy the advantage of tax with issuing more debt financing while having more profit to the firm. Ahmad and Azhar (2015) added that this would give assistance to the firms that have default in their debt to use the tangible asset to avoid being bankrupcy. Cash plus Account Receivables Ratio Most of the previous studies used the liquidity ratio in order to measure the firm's ability to meet the short-term financial obligation. Even Thabet and Hanefah (2014) found in their study that liquidity were one of the factors that have the impact on the corporate performance to the firm. This ratio is important to ensure the firms have cut limit for total cash and account receivables in one time in order to avoid excess or lack of cash in the firms. In addition, it also to reduce the agency cost. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that examines the impact on total cash plus account receivables over total assets (CashAR) to the corporate performance. This variable is chosen as an independent variable for this study due to the characteristics for SCC must be following and passed the benchmark in order to be listed in the Islamic index. Farooq xi and Alahkam (2016) also mentioned that the Islamic financial system was more stable and resilient because of the economy based on Islamic guidelines. Growth Ratio This study decides to use the different amount of this year sales minus last year sales divided by this year sales as a proxy of firm growth ratio. It is supported by prior studies (Salim and Yadav, 2012; Bundala, 2012; Proença et al., 2014; Cheema et al., 2017) that are also used the same measurement for growth ratio in their studies. According to Titman & Wessel (1988) and Rajan & Zingales (1995) shows that the firms with high future growth turns out to be used less leverage in the financing decision. It is because the firm will shift from debt financing to equity financing. In addition, growth ratio are influence by the profitability of the firm. This study will be focused on selected countries from Southeast Asia, which are Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand. The selection sample is justified that Southeast Asia is the most progressive region in the Islamic capital market in the Asia region (Yakcop, 2002). Initially, this study has identified 595 samples of Public Listed Companies under industrial sector in Southeast Asia. Nevertheless, 114 samples have been excluded due to the several reasons such as incomplete financial statement and change of accounting year during the period of study. Thus, the final samples selected are 197 PLC from Shariah-compliant companies and 284 PLC from Non-shariah compliant companies. All the sample are collecting through DataStream that is published by Thomson Reuter Eikon. This study gathers all the financial statements such as balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement in order to achieve the objective of this study. The unique for this study, the data is analyzed using Python Pandas programming software. This is the first study using Python Pandas to analyze the impact of capital structure on corporate performance during the financial crisis. As information, Pandas are the software library written for the Python programming language for data manipulation and analysis. Undoubtedly, Pandas offer data structures and operations for manipulating numerical tables and time series. Therefore, the first step to do to analyze the data by creating the coding system that is xii required for this study. In order to accomplish the objective in this study, the regression equations have been developed as follows: 1. Y (Pretax ROA) = β0 + β1D/Eit + β2Tangit + β3STDit + β4LTDit + β5CASH/ARit + β6GRWit + β7SIZEit + β8(X) + ε 2. Y (ROE) = β0 + β1D/Eit + β2Tangit + β3STDit + β4LTDit + β5CASH/ARit + β6GRWit + β7SIZEit + β8(X) + ε Whereby: Pre-tax ROA = Return on asset before tax ratio ROE = Return on equity ratio D/E = Debt to equity ratio STD = Short term debt ratio LTD = Long term debt ratio TANG = Tangibility ratio CASHAR = Cash plus account receivable ratio GRW = Growth ratio SIZE = Size ratio ε = Error term X = dummy variable 0: Non-Shariah Compliant Companies (NSCC) 1: Shariah Compliant Companies (SCC) The analysis begins with the multicollinearity test and the purpose of this test to ensure there is no problem of multicollinearity among the variables. Based on the result, none of the tolerances value is less than 0.2 and none of the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) is greater than 10. As a result, it found that there is no multicollinearity problem in this study. The analyses continue with the descriptive statistic analysis that found the corporate performance of Shariah compliant companies (SCC) is higher than Non Shariah compliant companies (NSCC) during the financial crisis and after the financial crisis for both proxies, pre-tax return on assets (Pre-tax ROA) and return on equity (ROE). However, for independent variables those are debt to equity ratio, short-term debt ratio, long-term debt ratio, cash plus account receivables ratio shows that SCC has lower ratio through out the periods which are before, during and after financial crisis. These results have been expected due to the benchmarks that are set xiii by index providers during the quantitative (financial) screening process. Furthermore, SCC requirements to follow all the time the benchmark in order to be listed in Shariah index and maintain as shariah status. Due to this reason, we can observe that SCC always has a lower leverage ratio compare to NSCC. In addition, firms that have lower ratio are better because high leverage ratio or debt financing ratio contributes to the high risk of solvency and instability of the firms. Tangibility ratio for SCC is higher than NSCC before, during and after the financial crisis period. This ratio becomes more important after the financial crisis period. It is because it uses as a measurement for bank viability and indicate the firm's collateral level. Therefore, SCC with a higher tangibility ratio can issue more debt financing. It becomes more secure in case of bankruptcy; the firm can sales its tangible assets in order to pay their debt financing. Cash plus account receivables ratio is lower than NSCC before, during and after financial crisis period. Even though high liquidity can attract more lender and manager to make investment easily however there have high risk of bankruptcy and high risk of non-payment. Besides, the lower liquidity can contribute to the lower agency problem. Growth ratio shows before and during financial crisis period NSCC have higher ratio than SCC. However, after financial crisis period, SCC demonstrates higher ratio than NSCC. It indicates that SCC's growth better after financial crisis period. In addition, it proved that SCC gets more attention from the investor after financial crisis period. The second major finding are from multiple regression analysis based on pre tax ROA as the first proxy for corporate performance. It found that all the independent variables are significant except for debt to equity ratio before the financial crisis period. However, during the financial crisis period, only long-term debt ratios not significant and after the financial crisis period both short-term debt and long-term debt do not significant. Shariah-compliant companies only have a significant level after the financial crisis period. The impact of capital structure on corporate performance, pre-tax ROA for SCC is 1.6617 times higher than NSCC after financial crisis period. xiv Second proxy of corporate performance is a return on equity (ROE). All the independent variables are significant with the ROE except for debt to equity ratio and cash plus account receivable ratio before the financial crisis period, while long-term debt ratio during and after the financial crisis period. SCC significantly with ROE before the financial crisis and it shows that the impact of capital structure on SCC for corporate performance, ROE is -2.9264 times lower than NSCC. However, after the financial crisis period, the impact of capital structure on corporate performance, ROE for SCC is 4.3171 times higher than NSCC. The findings in this study posed an important implications for academicians, researchers, regulatory bodies as well as the management of the firms particularly Shariah compliant and non-shariah compliant companies, as they pave for further exploration. It offers knowledge to the regulatory bodies and related government agencies to come out with the guidelines and framework regarding shariah compliant status. Therefore, in order to set up with the new regulations and guidelines, these agencies need to understand the needed of investors and the characteristics of SCC itself in order to develop new guidelines to attract more investors. Such cases in Malaysia, the government give incentive to the new shariah compliant companies with five years tax exemption. Other, in UK and France they have amended their tax structure to compatible with Islamic finance guidelines. There have several limitations encountered in conducting this study. This study did not take into consideration the effects of the Asian financial crisis because there have different impact between the countries due to the different level of development in the financial market, the policies of the government and the sensitivity of that country to external incidents. In addition, due to this was the cross country study, therefore the differences are expected due to difference law system and regulation, bureaucracy, dissimilar costs and benefits that the companies face in each country. These limitations have paved the way to future research. Therefore, in the future it hopes to take consideration for these limitations in order to fill the research gap in this area ; slami finans özellikle son zamanlarda, İslami bankacılık, tekaful, vakıf ve sukuk gibi bir çok alanda hızlı bir büyüme göstermektedir. İslami finans İslam ülkelerinin yanında, Singapur, Güney Kore, Japonya, Avrupa, Avustralya, Brezilya ve Amerika Latin gibi İslami olmayan ülkeleri de kapsayacak şekilde dünyanın dört bir yanından, gittikçe daha fazla farkındalık ve ilgi kazanmaktadır. İslami Finansal Hizmetler Kurulu (IFHK) ve 2016'da Ernst & Young raporuna dayanarak, İslami finans sektörünün 2015 yılına kadar brüt 1,88 trilyon ABD doları değerine ulaştığını belirttimektedir. Üstelik bu sektörün büyüme hızı, düşük enerji fiyatlarının sürmesine, jeopolitik çatışmalara ve ekonomik belirsizliğe rağmen, çift haneli büyüme oranlarını korumuştur. Örneğin, 2017 yılına ait Küresel İslami Finans Raporunda, Aralık 2016'da küresel İslami finansal hizmet sektörünün 2,293 trilyon ABD doları bulduğu raporlanmıştır. El-Qorchi'ye (2005) göre İslami finansa geçiş konusunda üç motivasyon bulunduğu vurgulamaktadır: Şeriat uyumlu ürün ve hizmetlere yönelik güçlü talep, Körfez bölgesindeki petrol zengini uluslardan gelen Şeriat uyumlu yatırım için talep ve ve son olarak Şeriat uyumlu ürün ve hizmetlerin rekabet gücünden etkilenen gayrimüslim yatırımcıların ilgisi. Ayrıca, 1958'den bu yana geliştirilen ve MM Teorisi ile başlayan ve Takas Teorisi (Trade-Off Theory), Finansman Hiyerarşisi Kuramı (Pecking Order Theory), Vekâlet Maliyeti Teorisi (Agency Theory) ve Piyasa Zamanlama Teorisi (Market xvi Timing Theory) ile devam eden çok sayıda sermaye yapısı teorisi vardır. Örnek olarak Takas teorisi, firmaları borcun faizinden faydalanmak için birikmiş karlar ve özkaynak finansmanı yerine, borç finansmanı kullanmaya teşvik etmektedir. Bu teorilerinin her birinin sermaye yapısı kararını yönetmek ve denetlemek için farklı bir yaklaşımı vardır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, finansal kriz döneminde sermaye yapısının kurumsal performans üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. İlk olarak, bu çalışma Şeriat uyumlu şirketlerin (ŞUŞ) sermaye yapısının Şeriat uyumlu olmayan şirketlerden (ŞUOŞ) ne kadar farklı olabileceğini belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Sermaye yapısı üzerinde çok sayıda çalışma yapılmıştır. Bununla birlikte, çalışmaların çoğu sermaye yapısı belirleyicileri, sermaye yapısının finansal performans üzerindeki etkileri, verginin finansal yapıdaki sermaye yapısını ve kısa vadeli borçları nasıl etkilediğine odaklanmıştır. Bu geçmiş çalışmalarda örneklem olarak, finansal kurumlar, küçük ve orta ölçekli işletmeler ve halka açık şirketler kullanmaktadır. Ancak Şeriate Uygun Şirketlerin sermaye yapıları ve sermaye yapısının finansal performans üzerindeki etkisi konusunda az sayıda çalışma vardır. Özellikle ŞUŞ'lerin sermaye yapıları göz önünde bulundurulduğunda, bu şirketlerin kriz döneminde daha avantajlı olmaları beklenmektedir. Ancak ŞUŞ'lerin finansal yapılarının, fiannsal kriz döneminde onlar için nasıl bir avantaj sağladığı bugüne kadar bir araştırma konusu yapılmamıştır. Bu nedenle, araştırma boşluğunu doldurmak için, ŞUŞ'lerin örnek olarak kullanıldığı, finansal kriz sırasında sermaye yapısının finansal performans üzerindekini araştıran bir çalışma yapılması gerektirmektedir. Bildiğimiz kadarıyla, bugüne kadar yapılmış böyle bir ampirik çalışma yoktur. Şeriat uyumlu şirketler (ŞUŞ), finansman faaliyetlerini yürütürken Şeriat ilkelerine, kurallarına, değerlerine ve kısıtlamalarına uymaktadır. ŞUŞ'in tüm Şeriat ilkelerine uyması, ayrıca riba, masyar ve gharar gibi yasaklanmış unsurlardan arındırılmasını sağlamak için, Şeriat Danışma Kurulu (ŞDK) ŞUŞ'lerin faaliyetlerini izlemek üzere kurulur. Bunlara ek olarak İslami endekste listelenmeden önce, tüm şirketler, endeks sağlayıcısı tarafından belirlenen tarama süreci için nitel ve nicel kriterlere uymalıdır. Bu çalışmada kullanılan örneklem, FTSE şeriat küresel sermaye endeksinde yer alan şirketlerden oluşturulmuştur. Bu endeks sağlayıcısı altında, xvii tarama süreci de dahil olmak üzere Şeriat konularının ele alınmasında Yasaar Ltd. tarafsız bir danışmanlık ve lider otorite olarak kabul edilmektedir. Şirketlerin Şeriat uyumlu statüsünü elde edebilmesi için, nicel tarama başlığı altında, uyması gereken bir dizi finansal kriterler de vardır. Haron ve Ibrahim'e (2012) göre, endeks sağlayıcı tarafından belirlenen kriter nedeniyle, ŞUŞ'ler sermaye arttrırımı yoluyla finansmanı tercih etmek durumunda kalmaktadır. Ampirik olarak, özkaynağa dayalı finansmana daha fazla ağırlık veren firmalar, finansal krizler sırasında daha dirençli olma eğilimindedir. Gitman ve Zutter (2012, s.508) sermaye yapısını "firma tarafından tutulan borç ve özkaynak karışımı" olarak tanımlar. Bu tanım doğrultusunda asıl amaç, borç ve özkaynak finansmanını çeşitli bileşimleri ile sermaye yapılarının nasıl optimum hale getirileceğidir. Ayrıca, sermaye yapıları aslında borç sahiplerini borç sahipleri olarak, özkaynakları ise hissedarlar veya hissedarlar olarak temsil etmektedir. O halde ortaya çıkan soru, şeriat ilkeleri uyarınca en uygun sermaye yapısı teorisi hangisidir? Firmaların veya finansal yöneticilerin, şirket performansını en üst düzeye çıkarabilmelerini sağlamak için optimum sermaye yapısını nasıl belirlediğine dair daha önce yapılmış çok sayıda çalışma vardır. Ampirik sonuçlar, kârlılık, büyüme, büyüklük, maddi varlık, vergi, kaldıraç, likidite ve sanayi gibi finansman kararını vermek için firmayı ve finans yöneticisini etkileyen çok sayıda faktöre sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu arada, bu çalışmada, çalışmanın amacına ulaşmak için bazı finansal ölçütlere odaklanılacaktır. Bu örnekte, bu çalışmada kurumsal performans, borç / özsermaye oranı, borç finansman oranı, maddi duranlık oranı, nakit artı hesap alacakları oranı, büyüme oranı ve büyüklük oranı kullanılmıştır. Kurumsal Performans Bu çalışmada, kurumsal performansı ölçmek için iki bağımlı değişken kullanılmıştır. Şirketin kurumsal performansını ölçmek için il olarak vergi ve/veya zekat öncesi karın toplam varlığa olan oranıyla elde edilen ve varlıkların vergi öncesi getirisi (Vergi Öncesi Varlık Getirisi- Pre-tax Return of Asset) denilmektedir. Bu oran, işletmenin varlıklarına yaptığı yatırımdan elde ettiği getiri ile işletmenin xviii etkinliğini ölçer. Diğer bir deyişle, işletmenin varlıklarını gelir veya kârı elde etmek içine ne kadar etkin kullandığını gösterir. Önceki çalışmalarda olduğu gibi şirketin finansal performansını ölçmek için toplam aktifler üzerinden faiz ve vergi öncesi kazanç (faiz ve vergi öncesi kâr) kullanılmıştır. Öncellikle, bu çalışma, şirketin vergi veya zekat veya her ikisini birden ödemesi durumunda, işletmenin kurumsal performansının bundan önemli derecede etkilendiğini göstermeyi amaçlamaktadır. ŞUŞ'lerin Şeriat yönergelerine göre 'zekat' olarak adlandırılan, kâr veya gelirden yüzde 2,5 sabit oranda ödenen özel vergilere tabidir. Ancak, günümüze kadar zekat Müslüman ülkelerin çoğunda hala gönüllü olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmadaki örneklem ile ilgili olarak, zekat sistemini uygulayan tek ülke Malezya'dır. Ancak burada da gönüllülük temeline dayanmaktadır ve örneklemdeki şirketlerin hiçbiri mali tablolarında zekat miktarını göstermemektedir. Bu çalışmada, firmanın kurumsal performansını temsil eden ikinci bağımlı değişken, özkaynak karlılığı (ÖKK) oranıdır (Return Of Equity-ROE). Önceki çalışmalara dayanarak, çalışmalarında ÖKK'nı ölçmek için vergi sonrası toplam özsermaye üzerinden net kar kullanılmıştır. Bu nedenle, bu çalışma daha önceki çalışmalarla aynı ölçümü kullanmaya karar verilmiştir. Bu oran, faiz, vergi ve imtiyazlı temettü sonrası net karın kullanılması suretiyle şirketin kârlılığına göre hesaplanır. ÖKK oranı, firmanın olağan hissedarlarına odaklanan ve kazanılan kar ile sermayelerini karşılaştıran ana karlılık oranlarından biridir. Bazı yatırımcılar bu oranı firmanın adi hisse senedinin cazibesini ölçmek için kullanmaktadır. Borç / Varl k Ora Bazı İslami Finans Endeksleri, örneğin Dow Jones Küresel İslam Endeksi (DJIM) tarafından yapılan nicel gözetimde, finansal kriterlerden biri özkaynak oranıdır. Toplam borç, toplam özkaynağa göre % 33'ten az olmalıdır. Bununla birlikte, bu çalışmanda kullanılan 'FTSE Global Equity Shariah Index' serisi bu oranın gözetim sürecine dahil etmemektedir. Bundan dolayı, bu çalışmada, ŞUŞ'ler ve ŞUOŞ'ler arasında önemli farklılıklar olup olmadığını genel olarak görmek için, bu oranın kullanılmasına karar verilmiştir. Toplam borcun toplam özkaynağa bölünmesiyle bulunan özkaynak oranını, bağımsız bir değişken olarak çalışmada yer xix almıştır. Margaritis ve Psillaki (2010) ve Memon ve diğerleri, (2012) gibi diğer bazı çalışmalar özkaynak oranı için, aynı ölçümü kullanmışlardır. Bu oran, borç / özkaynak veya tamamen sahip olunan fonlara dayalı şirket finansman derecesini ölçerek, bir şirketin finansal kaldıracını değerlendirmektir. Bu gösterge, şirketin bir finansal sorun yaşaması halinde, özkaynakların şirketteki tüm borçları karşılama kabiliyetini ölçer. Borç Fi a s a FTSE Global Equity Shariah Index nicel gözetimi kapsamında borç oranı, toplam varlıkların yüzde 33'ünden az olmalıdır. Bu çalışmanın amacı nedeniyle, finansal kriz sırasında etkisini daha ayrıntılı görmek amacıyla, borç oranı ikiye ayrılmıştır. Nitekim Fosberg (2013), ABD'de borsada işlem gören şirketler üzerinde bir çalışma yürütmüş ve kısa vadeli borç finansmanının 2006'da yüzde 1,3'ten 2008'de yüzde 2,2'ye yükseldiğini ve bunun 2008'de meydana gelen finansal kriz nedeniyle 34 milyon dolarlık bir artışı temsil ettiğini bulmuştur. 2008 yılında borsada çöktüğünde, kredi arzının sınırlı olmasından dolayı, şirketlerin borçlanma gücünün daha önce olduğundan daha zayıf hale geldiği sayısız çalışma ile desteklenmiştir (bakınız Brealey ve ark., 2008; Almeida ve ark., 2011; Federal Rezerv, 2012; Fosberg, 2013). Bu nedenle, firmalar finansal zorluklar sırasında KVYK finansmanını daha çok kullandılar. Hassan ve Samour (2016) sermaye yapısı finansman kararının finansal kriz sırasında etkili olduğunu açıkça belirtmişlerdir. Cheema ve arkadaşları (2017) ve Shahar ve Shahar (2015), ŞUŞ'lerin uzun vadeli borç finansmanını kısa vadeli borç finansmanından daha fazla kullandığını bulmuşlardır. Bunun nedeni, Şeriat yönergelerine göre sınırlı ilgi ve risk paylaşımının kısıtlanması olabilir. Bununla birlikte, ŞUOŞ'ler, işletme sermayesi ihtiyacını karşılamak için daha fazla KVYK kullanmaktadır. Ancak Sahudin, Ismail, Sulaiman, Rahman ve Jaafar (2019) tarafından yapılan çalışma, ŞUŞ'lerin UVYK'a kıyasla daha fazla KVYK kullandığını buldurmuştur. Malezya'daki ŞUŞ'ler uzun vadeli borcuna kıyasla daha yaygın olarak kısa vadeli borç kullanılmaktadır, çünkü İslami borçlanma araçlarının çoğu uzun xx vadeli borçtan ziyade kısa vadelidir (Aggarwal ve Yousef, 2000). Bu aynı zamanda, kısa vadeli borç fonksiyonunun, borcu kontrol etme ve acente sorununu azaltma mekanizması olarak haklı kıldığı kurum teorisini de destekler. Bu nedenle, bu çalışma özellikle finansal kriz öncesinde, sırasında ve sonrasında finansman modellerindeki önemli farklılıkları incelemeyi de amaçlamaktadır. Maddi Varl k Ora Maddi duran varlıklar, bankaların finansal krizden sonra işletmelerin yaşayabilirliğini ölçtükleri için daha popüler hale gelmektedir. Bunun nedeni maddi duran varlıkların maddi olmayan duran varlıklara göre daha fazla likidit olmasıdır. Charalambakis ve Garrett (2012) maddi duran varlıkların firma içindeki sermaye yapısını açıklamada ana nokta olduğunu belirtmiştir. Sonuç olarak, maddi duran varlıklar piyasada daha yüksek değere sahiptir ve firmalar finansal problemleri olsa veya iflas ederse bile, firmalar maddi varlıklarını kolayca ve hızlı bir şekilde satabilmektedirler. Scott (1977) ve Titman ve Wessels (1988), daha az kârlı firmanın maddi duran varlıkların yüksek değerine sahip olma eğiliminde olduğunu ve firmaların maddi duran varlıklarını daha fazla borç almak veya daha fazla borç almak için teminat olarak kullandıklarını belirtmiştir. Bu nedenle, daha yüksek somutluğu olan herhangi bir firma daha fazla borç alacaktır. Bu işletmenin daha fazla borç finansmanı sağlayarak verginin avantajından faydalanması gerektiğini vurgulayan değiş tokuş teorisine uygun şekilde, işletmenin daha fazla kâr elde etmesini sağlar. Ahmad ve Azhar (2015) bunun borcunda temerrüde düşüren işletmelere, iflastan kaçınmak için bu maddi varlığı kullanmaları için bir seçenek oluturduğunu eklediler. Naki e Alacak Topla Ora Önceki çalışmaların çoğu, işletmelerin kısa vadeli finansal yükümlülüğünü yerine getirme kabiliyetini ölçmek için likidite oranını kullanmıştır. Thabet ve Hanefah (2014) da çalışmalarında likiditenin işletmelerin kurumsal performansı üzerinde etkili olan faktörlerden biri olduğunu bulmuşlardır. xxi Bu oran, işletmenin aşırı nakit veya nakit eksikliğinden kaçınmak için, nakit ve alacakları için bir limit belirlemek açısından önemlidir. Buna ek olarak, temsil maliyetini de düşürmektedir. Bildiğimiz kadarıyla bu çalışmamızda, nakit ve alacaklar toplamı, toplam varlıklar içindeki yerinin (CashAR) kurumsal performansa etkisini inceleyen ilk çalışmadır. Bu değişken, ŞUŞ için İslami endekste listelenmesi için yerine getirmesi gereken bir ölçüt olduğu için, bu çalışmada bağımsız bir değişken olarak seçilmiştir. Farooq ve Alahkam (2016), İslami esaslara dayanan ekonomi nedeniyle, İslami finansal sistemin daha istikrarlı ve dayanıklı olduğunu çalışmalarıyla desteklemişlerdir. Büyüme Ora Bu çalışmada, cari yılki satış eksi geçmiş yılki satışların cari yılki satışlara bölünmesi, işletme büyüme oranının bir göstergesi olarak kullanılmıştır. Çalışmalarında büyüme oranı için aynı ölçümü kullanan önceki çalışmalar (Salim ve Yadav, 2012; Bundala, 2012; Proença ve diğerleri, 2014; Cheema ve diğerleri, 2017) bulunmaktadır. Titman & Wessel'e (1988) ve Rajan & Zingales'e (1995) göre, gelecekteki büyümesi yüksek olan firmaların finansman kararlarında daha az kaldıraç kullanıldığını göstermektedir. Çünkü firma borç finansman yerine özkaynakla finansmanı tercih edecektir. Ayrıca, büyüme firmanın karlılığını etkileyecektir. Bu çalışma Güneydoğu Asya'dan Malezya, Endonezya, Vietnam, Singapur ve Tayland gibi seçilmiş ülkelere odaklanacaktır. Örneklem seçimi, Güneydoğu Asya bölgesindeki İslami sermaye piyasasının en ilerici bölgelerini içermektedir (Yakcop, 2002). Bu çalışmanın başlangıcında, Güneydoğu Asya'da sanayi sektörü altındaki Halka Açık Şirketlerden 595 örnek tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, tamamlanmamış finansal tablolar ve hesap dönemi boyunca muhasebe yılı değişikliği gibi çeşitli nedenlerden dolayı 114 şirket, örneklemden çıkarılmıştır. Bu nedenle, seçilen son örnekler ŞUŞ'lerden 197 ve ŞUOŞ'lerden 284 halka açık şirketten meydana gelmektedir. Tüm örnekler, Thomson Reuter Eikon tarafından yayınlanan DataStream aracılığıyla toplanmıştır. Bu çalışma, amacına ulaşmak için bilanço, gelir tablosu ve nakit akım tablosu gibi tüm finansal tabloları bir araya getirmektedir. Bu çalışmada veriler, Python Pandas yazılımı kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu, sermaye yapısının xxii finansal kriz sırasında kurumsal performans üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmek için Python Pandas'ın kullanıldığı ilk çalışmadır. Pandas veri işleme ve analiz için Python programlama dili için yazılan yazılım kütüphanesidir. Pandas sayısal tabloları ve zaman serilerini değiştirmek için veri yapıları ve işlemler sunar. Bu nedenle, bu çalışma için gerekli olan kodlama sistemini oluşturmak, verileri analiz etmek için ilk adım olarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu çalışmada amacına ulaşmak için regresyon denklemleri aşağıdaki gibi geliştirilmiştir: 1. Y (Pretax ROA) = β0 + β1D/Eit + β2Tangit + β3STDit + β4LTDit + β5CASH/ARit + β6GRWit + β7BOYUTit + β8(X) + ε 2. Y (ROE) = β0 + β1D/Eit + β2Tangit + β3STDit + β4LTDit + β5CASH/ARit + β6GRWit + β7BOYUTit + β8(X) + ε Vasıtasıyla: Pre-tax ROA = Vergi oranından önce varlığın getirisi ROE = Özkaynak karlılığı D/E = Borç / Özkaynak oranı STD = Kısa vadeli borç oranı LTD = Uzun vadeli borç oranı TANG = Maddi varlık oranı CASHAR = Nakit artı alacak oranı GRW = Büyüme oranı BOYUT = Boyut oranı ε = Hata terimi X = kukla değişken 0: Şeriat Uyumlu Olmayan Şirketler (ŞUOŞ) 1: Şeriat Uyumlu Şirketler (ŞUŞ) xxiii Analiz, çoklu doğrusallık testi ile başlar ve bu testin amacı, değişkenler arasında çoklu doğrusallık sorunu bulunmadığından emin olmaktır. Sonuçlara göre, tolerans değerlerinin hiçbiri 0,2'den az ve hiçbir Varyans Enflasyon Faktörü (VIF) 10'dan büyük değildir. Bu nedenle, bu çalışma için çoklu bağlantı sorunu yoktur denilebilir. Analizlere, tanımlayıcı istatistik analizleri ile devam edilmiştir. Şeriat uyumlu şirketlerin (ŞUŞ) kurumsal performansının mali kriz sırasında ve her iki bağımlı değişken için de, vergi öncesi varlık karlılığı (vergi öncesi AK) ve özkaynak kârlılığı (ÖKK), finansal krizden sonra şeriat uyumlu olmayan şirketlerde (ŞUOŞ) daha yüksek olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ancak bağımsız değişkenler, borç / özkaynak oranı için kısa vadeli borç oranı, uzun vadeli borç oranı, nakit artı hesap alacakları hesap oranı, SCC'nin finansal öncesi, sırasında ve sonrasındaki tüm dönemler için daha düşük bir orana sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, niceliksel tarama işlemi sırasında endeks sağlayıcı tarafından belirlenen koşullar nedeniyle beklenen bir durumdur. Ayrıca Şeriat endeksinde yer almak ve Şeriat statüsü kazanmak için bir ŞUŞ'in, her zaman söz konusu koşulların yerine getirildiği takip etmesi gerekir. Bu nedenle, ŞUŞ'lerin ŞUOŞ'lere kıyasla her zaman daha düşük kaldıraç oranına sahip olduğunu gözlemleyebiliriz. Bu oranların düşük olması daha iyidir, çünkü yüksek kaldıraç oranı veya borç finansman oranı, şirketin ödeme gücü ve istikrarsızlık riskini arttırabilir. ŞUŞ için maddi varlık oranı finansal kriz öncesinde, sırasında ve sonrasında ŞUOŞ'lerden daha yüksektir. Bu oran mali kriz döneminden sonra, daha da önem kazanmaktadır. Çünkü, bankalar şirketin yaşama yeteneği için bu oranı dikkate alırlar ve şirketin teminat seviyesinin göstergesidir. Bu nedenle, daha yüksek maddi varlık oranına sahip ŞUŞ'e daha fazla borç verebilir. İflas durumunda daha güvenli hale gelir, şirketler, borçlarını ödemek için maddi duran varlıklarını satabilir. Toplam nakit ve alacak oranı, finansal kriz öncesinde, sırasında ve sonrasında ŞUOŞ'den daha düşüktür. Her ne kadar yüksek likidite ile daha fazla kredi hacmine ulaşmayı ve yöneticilerin yatırım yapmasını kolaylaşsa da, bu durum yüksek bir iflas riskini ve yüksek ödeme yapmama riskini beraberinde getirir. Ek olarak, düşük likidite temsil sorununun artmaması açısından bir avantaj sağlar. xxiv Öncesinde ve mali kriz döneminde ŞUOŞ'lerin ŞUŞ'lerden daha yüksek bir büyüme oranına sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Ancak, mali kriz döneminden sonra ŞUŞ'ler, ŞUOŞ'lerden daha yüksek bir büyüme oranına sahiptir. Finansal kriz döneminden sonra ŞUŞ'lerin daha iyi büyüdüğünü göstermektedir. Ayrıca, finansal kriz döneminden sonra ŞUŞ'lerin yatırımcıdan daha fazla ilgi gördüğü kanıtlanmıştır. Kurumsal performans için ilk bağımlı değişken olarak, vergi öncesi AK'na dayalı çoklu regresyon analizinden elde edilen ikinci önemli bulgu, finansal kriz döneminden önceki borç / özkaynak oranı hariç tüm bağımsız değişkenlerin istatistiksel olarak önemli olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Ancak finansal kriz döneminde sadece uzun vadeli borç oranları anlamlı değildir ve finansal kriz döneminden sonra hem kısa vadeli borç hem de uzun vadeli borç değişkenleri istatistiksel olarak önemli değildir. Şeriat uyumlu şirketler ancak finansal kriz döneminden sonra önemli bir seviyeye sahiptir. Sermaye yapısının vergi öncesi AK için ŞUŞ üzerindeki etkisi, finansal kriz döneminden sonra ŞUOŞ'lerden 1,6617 kat daha yüksektir. Kurumsal performansın ikinci bağımlı değişkeni ÖKK'dır. Finansal kriz döneminden önce borç / özsermaye oranı ve nakit artı hesap alacak oranı hariç, finansal kriz dönemi içinde ve sonrasında uzun vadeli borç oranı hariç tüm bağımsız değişkenler ÖKK açısından istatistiksel olarak önemlidir. Finansal krizden önce ÖKK ile ŞUŞ önemli ölçüde artmakta ve sermaye yapısının ÖKK için ŞUŞ üzerindeki etkisinin finansal kriz döneminden önce ŞUOŞ'lerden -2.9264 kat daha düşük olduğunu göstermektedir. Ancak, finansal kriz döneminden sonra, sermaye yapısının ÖKK için ŞUŞ üzerindeki etkisi ŞUOŞ'lerden 4.3171 kat daha fazladır. Bu çalışmada elde edilen bulgular, akademisyenler, araştırmacılar, düzenleyici kurumlar ve özellikle ŞUŞ ve ŞUOŞ gibi şirketlerin yönetimi için daha fazla araştırma yapmalarının gerektiğini sonucunu doğurmuştur. Bu çalışma düzenleyici kurumlara ve ilgili devlet kurumlarına, şeriat uyumlu statüye ilişkin yönergeler ve çerçeve çıkarmaları rehber olabilir. Bu nedenle, yeni düzenleme ve kılavuz ilkeler oluşturmak için, bu kurumların daha fazla yatırımcı çekmek için yeni kılavuzlar geliştirmek amacıyla yatırımcıların ihtiyaçlarını ve ŞUŞ'lerin özelliklerini anlamaları gerekmektedir. Malezya'da hükümet beş yıl vergi muafiyeti ile yeni xxv ŞUŞ'lere teşvik vermektedir. Ayrıca, İngiltere ve Fransa'da ŞUŞ'ler de dahil olmak üzere İslami finans sektörü için vergi yapılarını değiştirdiler. Bu çalışmanın yürütülmesinde bazı sınırlamalar bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, finansal piyasadaki farklı düzeylerde gelişme, hükümet politikaları ve o ülkenin dış olaylara duyarlılığı nedeniyle Asya'daki finansal krizin ülke genelinde farklı olduğu göz önünde bulundurulmamıştır. Buna ek olarak, ülkeler arası bu çapraz çalışma nedeniyle, farklı hukuk sistemleri ve düzenlemeleri, bürokrasi, şirketlerin her ülkede karşılaştığı farklı maliyetler ve faydalar nedeniyle farklılıklar beklenmektedir. Bu sınırlamalar gelecekteki araştırmaların yolunu açmaktadır. Dolayısıyla, gelecekte sermaye yapısı alanındaki araştırma boşluğunu doldurmak için bu sınırlamaları dikkate alınmalıdır

Two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, there are signs that sub-Saharan Africa will experience a modest recovery in 2022. Yet at least in the first half of the year, the region will continue to suffer from inadequate provision and administration of vaccines. In addition, violent conflicts and structural weaknesses constitute considerable challenges. We present a selective list and analysis of "ten things to watch" in Africa in 2022. Politics: Last year saw a number of military coups, which may foreshadow future takeovers by armies in Africa. Pivotal elections lie ahead that could trigger the outbreak of violence, for instance in Kenya. Political heavyweight South Africa is in a severe socio-economic crisis that is engendering growing public anger, and the governing African National Congress is experiencing increasingly deepening internal rifts. Violent conflicts: The civil war in Ethiopia puts the state's integrity at risk and could further undermine stability in the whole Horn of Africa. Jihadism represents a major security threat on the continent that needs to be tackled by African and international actors. A focus should lie on addressing root causes and on preventing crises. Development: It will take years for African countries to rebound from the pandemic's socio-economic repercussions. Structural problems such as high poverty, inequality, and government debt hamper economic growth and the effects of climate change are strongly felt in many African countries already. The year 2022 will be crucial for devising the next steps for continental economic integration. International arena: Africa is a sought-after international partner. Several actors including China, Turkey, the United States, and the European Union and its member countries are vying for political and economic influence. This competition will further intensify. African countries getting their full share of COVID-19 vaccines will be important. African and international partners need to expand support for the COVAX initiative and boost public health systems. The approaching EU–African Union summit in February represents an opportunity to step up cooperation to strengthen regional economic integration, democratic development, and the fight against climate change. Based on its coalition agreement, the new German government should be a main driver of this partnership.

AMÉRICA LATINALa OEA y las pandillas dialogan para pacificar El Salvador. Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/tregua-entre-pandillas-de-el-salvador-deja-descenso-en-homicidios_12032596-4 http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/78653.html http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/13/actualidad/1342144200_552454.htmlEmbajador ante OEA: 'No hay motivos para sancionar a Paraguay' Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/embajador-de-paraguay-ante-oea-dice-que-no-hay-motivos-para-sancin_12035679-4Paraguay pedirá observadores internacionales para elecciones de 2013. Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/observadores-internacionales-para-elecciones-en-paraguay_12040201-4 http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/internacional/noticias/4DCF7AF2-3B30-4637-AF34-D03B49A3C9E9.htm?id={4DCF7AF2-3B30-4637-AF34-D03B49A3C9E9}La campaña en Venezuela: Chávez continúa como favorito, pero Capriles recorta la ventaja. Para más información: http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/ong-denuncia-abusos-de-poder-cometidos-no-governo-de-chavez-5497867#ixzz20vof29uR http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/78654.html http://gauche.blog.lemonde.fr/2012/07/16/m-melenchon-transporte-au-pays-de-hugo-chavez/ http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490994-chavez-continua-como-favorito-pero-capriles-recorta-la-ventaja#comentar http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490577-la-imagen-de-capriles-crece-pero-no-logra-detener-los-ataques-aliados#comentar http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/chvez-aventaja-por-15-puntos-a-capriles-revela-encuesta-en-venezuela_12034305-4 Los indígenas de Colombia se rebelan contra la violencia de las FARC. Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/11/actualidad/1342004330_713460.html Toma de tierras genera alarma en Honduras.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/78659.html http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/11/world/americas/honduras-operation-anvil/index.html?hpt=wo_bn8 Apoyo a Ollanta Humala cae a 40% por conflictos sociales. Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/internacional/noticias/FCF675B8-2300-43FF-81C8-475FB6CDCA6D.htm?id={FCF675B8-2300-43FF-81C8-475FB6CDCA6D} El enfoque de la política exterior de Peña Nieto. Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/internacional/noticias/E277E1CC-F566-46EC-B579-E05281D2592C.htm?id={E277E1CC-F566-46EC-B579-E05281D2592C} Criminalidad en México: Calderón dice que bajó tasa de homicidios. Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/internacional/noticias/44BA4A79-F832-47A1-9A71-40B7BB83550F.htm?id={44BA4A79-F832-47A1-9A71-40B7BB83550F} http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/14/actualidad/1342286287_360991.html "CNN" analiza situación de migrantes centroamericanos en México. Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/14/world/americas/mexico-immigrant-shelter/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 Importante fugitivo estadounidense capturado en México.Para más información: http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/14/12743433-fugitive-on-us-most-wanted-list-is-captured-in-mexico?lite La pelea entre Santos y Uribe divide a la derecha colombiana. Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/16/actualidad/1342442039_118336.html Chile: dos oficiales, procesados por las torturas y asesinato del padre de la ex presidenta Bachelet. Para más información: http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/chile-tortura-matou-pai-de-michelle-bachelet-5504223#ixzz20voTe8qi http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1491183-chile-dos-oficiales-procesados-por-las-torturas-y-asesinato-del-padre-de-la-ex-presidenta-ba#comentar Cuba emprende lucha contra brote de cólera en su territorio.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/12/world/americas/cuba-cholera-doctors/index.html?hpt=wo_bn8 http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/cuba-emprende-lucha-contra-brote-de-clera-en-su-territorio_12033758-4 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/americas/economists-question-cubas-commitment-to-privatizing-businesses.html?_r=1&ref=world&gwh=AEF489DED953829F7206F8C93F7BC84E "El País" de Madrid analiza relación actual del movimiento sindical con la presidenta argentina. Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/13/actualidad/1342139368_040972.html Dilma Rousseff lanza paquete de incentivos para potenciar la industria militar brasileña. Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/_portada/noticias/E9BE7D4D-0931-4437-97DE-4CCD36D4A411.htm?id={E9BE7D4D-0931-4437-97DE-4CCD36D4A411} Pierde fuerza en Brasil la cruzada anticorrupción.Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490735-pierde-fuerza-en-brasil-la-cruzada-anticorrupcion#comentar Cardoso: "Brasil es menos influyente". Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490736-cardoso-brasil-es-menos-influyente#comentar"Los Ángeles Times" analiza realidad social haitiana tras el terremoto de 2010.Para más información: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-haiti-housing-20120715,0,979717.storyESTADOS UNIDOS / CANADÁEstados Unidos en plena campaña presidencial.Para más información: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/18/content_15592741.htm http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490747-los-rebeldes-le-reprochan-a-obama-su-pasividad#comentar http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/elecciones-en-estados-unidos-equipo-de-obama-ataca-a-romney_12030788-4 http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/barack-obama-no-ofrecer-disculpas-a-mitt-romney_12033752-4 http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2012/07/17/les-etats-unis-connaissent-leur-pire-secheresse-depuis-plus-de-50-ans_1734505_3244.html http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/internacional/noticias/70F54CE7-CCC2-4206-8B03-EF5FDAD8FD6F.htm?id={70F54CE7-CCC2-4206-8B03-EF5FDAD8FD6F} http://elpais.com/tag/elecciones_eeuu_2012/a/Un barco militar de Estados Unidos abre fuego contra un bote en aguas del golfo Pérsico.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/16/actualidad/1342458571_053421.html http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-us-india-apology-20120718,0,466917.story http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/17/content_15587828.htm http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/middleeast/united-states-navy-ship-fires-on-boat-off-coast-of-united-arab-emirates.html?ref=world&gwh=580D5EDDD2F62CB1C518ADF9B5EBF3CA Acusan a menores en Estados Unidos de matar a golpes a inmigrante mexicano.Para más información: www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/acusan-a-menores-en-eeuu-de-matar-a-golpes-a-inmigrante-mexicano_12036626-4Tiroteo dos muertos y 19 heridos en Toronto. Para más información: http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/tiroteio-deixa-dois-mortos-19-feridos-em-toronto-no-canada-5495171#ixzz20vojS5mUEstados Unidos rechaza la oferta de Annan de que Irán participe en la transición en Siria.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/11/actualidad/1342037410_130149.html El Senado de Estados Unidos acusa a HSBC de blanqueo de dinero del narcotráfico.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/17/actualidad/1342508679_820810.html http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2012/07/17/lutte-anti-blanchiment-un-rapport-parlementaire-americain-pointe-les-carences-d-hsbc_1734511_3234.html http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/17/content_15587732.htmEUROPAEl futuro del euro atado al ajuste en España.Para más información: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18094883 http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1491011-el-futuro-del-euro-atado-al-ajuste-en-espana#comentar http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/espaa-a-la-espera-del-temido-septiembre_12032083-4 http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490546-advierten-que-espana-deberia-pedir-un-segundo-rescate-a-europa#comentarCrece el malestar social contra Rajoy por los recortes.Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1491010-crece-el-malestar-social-contra-rajoy-por-los-recortes#comentar http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/internacional/noticias/86BC79C3-A361-45D5-8C58-9E1C14B08A1D.htm?id={86BC79C3-A361-45D5-8C58-9E1C14B08A1D} Servicios secretos alemanes advierten de nuevo terrorismo de ultraderecha.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/servicios-secretos-alemanes-advierten-nuevo-terrorismo-ultraderechista_12041501-4 Seguridad de los Olímpicos estaría en vilo.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/seguridad-de-los-olmpicos-estara-en-vilo_12032087-4 http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/28/travel/heathrow-airport-london-olympics/index.html?hpt=wo_c1 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/18/world/europe/british-parliament-investigates-olympics-chaos.html?ref=world&gwh=E21F104A68E99F62E93B5BA6DF2F2914 Unión Europea entrena fuerzas nigerianas contra su lucha con Al Qaeda. Para más información: http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/16/12773236-european-union-mission-to-train-niger-forces-to-fight-al-qaida?lite Hollande presenta el consejo de sabios que "limpiará" la vida pública.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/16/actualidad/1342452210_585106.html http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2012/07/16/regle-d-or-et-constitution-mais-comment-compte-faire-hollande_1734329_823448.html http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/18/content_15592821.htmEncuentran en Hungría al criminal nazi más buscado del mundo. Para más información: http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2012/07/17/radovan-karadzic-accuse-de-genocide-danger-pour-tous_1734254_3232.html http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2012/07/17/le-criminel-nazi-laszlo-csatary-aurait-fui-son-domicile_1734521_3214.html http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/internacional/noticias/0D556C10-24BB-4277-BDC0-38EE3F5149EA.htm?id={0D556C10-24BB-4277-BDC0-38EE3F5149EA} http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18884106. http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/nazista-mais-procurado-do-mundo-encontrado-em-budapeste-5482845 Rusia acusa a Occidente de hacer chantaje con la misión de la ONU.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/16/actualidad/1342461553_894080.html Annan en Moscú por conflicto en Siria. Para más información: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/16/content_15583063.htmAprobada la conflictiva división del distrito de Bruselas.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/13/actualidad/1342201123_461591.htmlHSBC se disculpa por casos de lavado de dinero.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/hsbc-se-disculpa-por-casos-de-lavado-de-dinero_12041301-4Atentado en Sofía deja al menos 7 muertos.http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1491431-atentado-en-bulgaria-contra-una-comitiva-de-turistas-israelies http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2012/07/18/attentat-meurtrier-contre-des-israeliens-en-bulgarie_1735418_3214.html http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/19/world/europe/explosion-on-bulgaria-tour-bus-kills-at-least-four-israelis.html?_r=1&hp&gwh=97A160EA3577E658088E69075D477BA1Rusia y la ONU analizan posibles soluciones para el conflicto en Siria.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/17/actualidad/1342506302_589902.htmlASIA- PACÍFICO/ MEDIO ORIENTEContinúan las matanzas indiscriminadas en Siria: Damasco sufre los peores combates.Para más información: http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/17/12794303-syrian-general-tlas-in-france-following-defection?lite http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/confrontos-chegam-ao-centro-de-damasco-apenas-2km-do-palacio-5495574#ixzz20vqvx9un http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-syria-damascus-fighting-20120718,0,1068141.story http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/17/content_15587727.htm http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/middleeast/new-fighting-in-damascus-after-syria-denies-attack-on-civilians.html?ref=world&gwh=9CA06F0BDA70FC8EE10DE27FCF32E5D9 http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/17/actualidad/1342519414_504170.html http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2012/07/17/damas-en-guerre-tournant-dans-la-revolte-contre-le-pouvoir-d-assad_1734518_3218.html http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2012/07/17/les-divergences-s-accentuent-entre-russes-et-occidentaux-sur-la-syrie_1734557_3218.html http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/16/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=wo_c2Irán se ofrece como mediador en conflicto sirio. Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/15/world/meast/iran-syria/index.html?hpt=wo_bn11 El Comité Internacional de la Cruz Roja declaró que el conflicto ha alcanzado tal amplitud y gravedad que ya puede considerarse como una "guerra civil". Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/_portada/noticias/4262DBC3-C8B9-42FD-A78B-C3477719A344.htm?id={4262DBC3-C8B9-42FD-A78B-C3477719A344} Ministro de Defensa sirio muere en explosión en Damasco.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/ministro-defensa-sirio-muere-en-explosion-en-damasco-tv-estatal_12041541-4 http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/rebeldes-sirios-anuncian-gran-ofensiva-contra-las-fuerzas-de-asad_12036961-4 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18882149 Más de 112.000 refugiados sirios viven en Líbano, Turquía, Jordania e Irak.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/16/actualidad/1342460935_768958.html 'No actuar en Siria es darles licencia para matar': Ban Ki-moon.Para más información: www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/onu-condena-masacre-de-150-personas-en-siria_12030421-4ONU trata de ayudar a Siria pero no logra satisfacer las necesidades.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/onu-trata-de-ayudar-a-siria-pero-no-logra-satisfacer-las-necesidades_12034047-4Kim Jong-Un nombra a un nuevo alto mando del Ejército.Para más información: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-north-korea-dismissal-20120717,0,4588711.story http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/internacional/noticias/ABCDE3E9-4298-43E8-8666-D34D18692C78.htm?id={ABCDE3E9-4298-43E8-8666-D34D18692C78} http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/15/world/asia/north-korea-army-chief/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2012/07/17/pyongyang-nomme-un-nouveau-vice-marechal-de-l-armee_1734513_3216.html http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/17/content_15587763.htmHyon Yong-Chol será una pieza clave del presidente norcoreano para controlar totalmente a las Fuerzas Armadas.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/17/actualidad/1342509346_084341.html http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/18/world/asia/shifts-in-north-korea-may-be-attempt-to-rein-in-military.html?ref=world&gwh=76401E3CBC4CC41356FB4B51058553C4 Kim empieza a imponer su estilo en Corea del Norte.Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490978-kim-empieza-a-imponer-su-estilo-en-corea-del-norte#comentar http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/para-especialistas-saias-de-norte-coreanas-dizem-muito-sobre-pais-5492829#ixzz20vqz6FsfAtentado en una boda en Kabul: 23 muertos.Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490538-atentado-en-una-boda-en-kabul-23-muertos#comentar http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/al-menos-17-muertos-en-un-ataque-suicida-en-una-boda-en-afganistn_12030541-4 http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490464-al-menos-veintitres-muertos-en-un-ataque-suicida-contra-una-boda-en-el-norte-de-afganistan#comentar20 muertos y 230.000 evacuados en Japón por lluvias torrenciales.Para más información: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/asia/floods-in-japan-displace-hundreds-of-thousands.html?ref=world&gwh=94150277955BA2AEBC85448E35CADBCE http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/14/actualidad/1342268011_634794.html http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/16/world/asia/japan-floods/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 Clinton visita Israel. Para más información: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/17/content_15587683.htm http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/asia/thousands-gather-in-tokyo-to-protest-nuclear-restart.html?ref=world&gwh=00C9D8719334275AF674614A576C5B8FJaponeses contra la energía nuclear.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/78656.html http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/17/content_15587765.htm China en guardia ante la crisis.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/15/actualidad/1342373596_639513.html http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-china-gdp-20120713,0,783927.storyViudas de la guerra levantan un barrio con sus propias manos en Kabul.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/viudas-de-la-guerra-levantan-un-barrio-con-sus-propias-manos-en-kabul_12038483-4 Condenado a muerte el soldado afgano que mató a 5 militares franceses.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/condenado-a-muerte-el-soldado-afgano-que-mat-a-5-militares-franceses_12036781-4 http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2012/07/17/le-soldat-afghan-meurtrier-de-cinq-militaires-francais-condamne-a-mort_1734527_3216.htmlAumenta número de deslizamientos de tierras al sur de Asia. Para más información: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18872398ÁFRICAHillary Clinton expresó su apoyo a 'transición completa' en Egipto.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/hillary-clinton-expres-su-apoyo-a-transicin-completa-en-egipto_12033750-4 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt-clinton-20120715,0,376110.story Clinton insta a la Junta militar egipcia a cooperar con el presidente Morsi.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/15/actualidad/1342363915_980700.html Naciones Unidas condena actos de grupos rebeldes en Congo. Para más información: http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/17/12787052-un-condemns-congo-attacks-as-rebel-advance-threatens-goma?liteHistórica decisión de la Unión Africana. Para más información: http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2012/07/17/bamako-annonce-des-concertations-pour-un-gouvernement-d-union_1734502_3212.html http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/africa/a-historic-choice-for-the-african-union.html?ref=world&gwh=EE0AA064539A838437181EF67899E531 Mubarak continúa hospitalizado.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/16/world/africa/egypt-mubarak/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/middleeast/egypts-former-leader-mubarak-is-transferred-back-to-prison.html?ref=world&gwh=BC8A1852D8F47652373D75A8BC4E3D92 Egipto: liberan a turistas estadounidenses.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/16/world/meast/egypt-americans-kidnapped/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/middleeast/egypt-american-tourists-released.html?ref=world&gwh=475BFF001B0C5D8E348B7E3970805224 http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2012/07/16/egypte-liberation-de-deux-touristes-americains-enleves-dans-le-sinai_1734447_3212.html Cruz Roja envía alimentos a Mali. Para más información: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/africa/mali-red-cross-prepares-food-aid.html?ref=world&gwh=01D96D2AF203E05076AC0E1F6E0C09C4 Morsi vs. Corte, una nueva lucha de poder en Egipto.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/africa/morsi-vs-corte-una-nueva-lucha-de-poder-en-egipto_12032085- Sudán del sur, un país que continúa en construcción.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/africa/sudn-del-sur-un-pas-que-contina-en-construccin_12032081-4 OTRASAdvertencia del FMI por China y Brasil.Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1491012-advertencia-del-fmi-por-china-y-brasil#comentar"En todos los casos de la Corte Penal Internacional aparece la violencia sexual".Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/14/actualidad/1342281593_350369.html ONU lanza campaña contra crimen organizado.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/78650.html"The Economist" presenta su informe semanal: "Business this week". Para más información: http://www.economist.com/node/21558323

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It has been a very exciting year for social protection! In 2019, my weekly social protection links newsletter reviewed 1042 materials in 43 editions. So here is a personal selection of papers articulated around 10 major themes. Enjoy!

1. Economic and other long-term effects

Daidone et al have a great article summarizing and explaining the economic effects of cash transfers in 7 African countries. Egger et al add another precious data point on the multiplier effects of cash transfers (I counted 12 such points for the moment): in Kenya, every $ injected generates $2.6 in the local economy.

Blattman et al show that after 5 years, a one-off cash grants in Ethiopia has fading effects. Similarly, in Malawi Baird et al estimate that the impact on reduced fertility of an unconditional cash transfers on adolescent girls rapidly vanished.

In Mexico, after 20 years of operations cash transfers ex-beneficiaries showed higher ownership of durable assets (Aguilar et al); 49.2% of them experienced upward mobility (Yaschine et al); they grew 2.8-4.1cm taller and have 5.3-5.7 more years of schooling than their parents (Gutierrez et al), with enrollment in secondary school increasing by 5-10 percentage points over grades 7-12 (Behrman et al). A 10-country review by Millan et al found that the evidence is strong on school completion, more mixed on learning, and limited on employment. Another paper by Millan et al estimate that 13 years after its inception, transfers in Honduras increased secondary education completion by 50%, but also rose the chance of migration by 3-7 percentage points.

2. Health, nutrition and education

Klein et al show that cash transfer participants in Buenos Aires showed higher success rates against tuberculosis (TB); yet Rudgard et al estimate that making transfers "TB-sensitive" would require an additional budget between $165M and $298M per country. Choko et al showed that in Malawi cash plus HIV self-test kits increased HIV anti-retroviral therapy compared to other solutions. Palermo et al find that in Ghana, combining cash and health measures increased enrolment in health insurance in the treatment group from an average of 37.4% to 46.6%.

In Ecuador, Moncayo et al show that a 1% increase in the coverage of cash transfers decreases mortality from malnutrition by about 3%. In Nigeria, Okeke and Abubakar estimate that cash reduced mortality of children in utero by at least 20%. Celhay et al found that cash increased the survival rates of birth cohorts exposed to the program by up to 14.7%. and Dow et al find that in the US, a 10% increase in the Earned Income Tax Credit or in the minimum wage reduces suicides between 3.6 and 5.5%.

In Ghana, Gelli et al found that the national school meals program improved stunting among children of 5-8 years (effect size: 0.12 standard deviations). Neufeld et al on the history of nutrition evidence on cash transfers in Mexico. And a paper by Evans and Yuan shows that girl-targeted versus general interventions in education seem to deliver similar gains, including featuring cash transfers both at the top and bottom among the most effective interventions.

3. Gender

Peterman et al summarize the impacts of safety nets on gender in Africa: safety nets perform well in reducing physical violence as well as improving psychological well-being, dietary diversity and savings. But changes in labor force participation are minimal. In terms of toolkits, FAO produced great guidelines on gender-sensitive cash transfers and public works.

A review of evidence on social assistance and intimate partner violence (IPV) by Hidrobo and Roy shows reductions in physical violence between 25-41% in Bangladesh, Ecuador, and Mali. Another brief by Heise summarizes results from 22 studies across 13 countries.

4. Crime

Tuttle shows that banning convicted drug felons from SNAP food stamps in the United States makes them more likely to return to jail. Sviatschi estimates that in Peru, cash transfers reduced drug production. And in Brazil, Machado et al find that Bolsa reduced homicide rate and hospitalizations due to violence by 8-25%.

5. Crises

Barca and Beazley estimate that it takes between 2 weeks to 14 months to scale up social protection in response to natural disasters. Bruck et al show that a new generation of 7 high-quality evaluations sheds light on social protection in fragile and displacement settings. Cherrier et al produced an excellent compendium on humanitarian-social protection linkages, while Seyfert et examine the trade-offs of integrating refugees into national safety nets.

6. Universality and targeting

A new book by Gentilini et al offers a framework to navigate the analytics, evidence and practices on universal basic income (UBI), while Banerjee et al discuss how UBI may address barriers like lack of credit, insurance or psychological factors among low-income people. Jolliffe et al show that SNAP, the American "floor for the poorest", has been sinking over the past 30 years.

ILO and UNICEF have an overview note on "universal" child grants present in 21 countries, while Kidd and Athias offer a critique of proxy means testing. In Indonesia, Tohari et al estimates that the poverty-based unified database of beneficiaries improved the chance of participating in 3 core programs by 117%, while Bah et al estimate that if all households were included in such database undercoverage would be reduced by one-third. Bonus: Ndiaye et al trace the evolution of the national social registry in Senegal.

7. Insurance and labor markets

Packard et al examines how social protection could be adapted to the changing nature of work, while Jorgensen and Siegel unveil social risk management 2.0. Guven shows that in Africa only 10.6% of Africa's working-age population contributes to pension schemes. The ILO has a fascinating "living document" laying out a number of options disaggregated by occupation.

A review of minimum wages in high-income countries by Dube finds "… muted effect of minimum wages on employment, while significantly increasing the earnings of low paid workers". However, a new compilation of evidence on minimum wage in low and middle-income countries by Neumark and Corella finds that "… when minimum wages are binding and enforced, and when they apply to vulnerable workers, the disemployment effects are most apparent".

8. Tech and financial inclusion

Gelb and Mukherjee take stock of lessons from India's biometric ID (Aadhaar) in providing inclusive services; Masino and Nino-Zarazua show that transitioning to electronic cash payments in Mexico increased households' access to formal financial services. In South Africa, however, Torkelson documents abuses in using cash transfers as loan collateral by a financial company delivering cash itself.

9. Political economy

Hickey et al have an amazing open-access book on the political economy of cash transfers in Africa. Mosec and Mo found that in Pakistan those receiving BISP cash transfers increased support for their political leaders and institutions, while in typhoon-hit Fiji Rios et al show that people receiving cash transfers are up to 20% more likely to be very satisfied with the government than non-recipients. In Brazil and Turkey, Zucco et al show that conditional transfers are only marginally more popular than similar unconditional transfers. Ciminelli et al find that reforms generating large short-term adverse distributional effects are associated with electoral costs for politicians. In Mexico, Cantu documents that cash-vouchers to be used in local supermarkets were provided in exchange for electoral support.

10. Cash plus and cash versus….

In Bihar, Khemani et al asked whether people prefer cash or other services: only 13% chose cash instead of spending on public health and nutrition; in contrast, if cash came in lieu of improving roads, preference for cash rose to 35% (see counter views). In Mozambique, De Walque and Valente compare the effects of a conditional cash transfer program with the sole provision of information to parents on school attendance: information provision is as large as 75% of the effect of the CCT.

Two papers – one on Ghana by Banerjee et al and another on Uganda by Sedlmayr et al – points to the power of combining cash transfers with assets and complementary measures (as opposed to individual components). Also, Carneiro et al evaluate an integrated cash program for 3,600 mothers in Northern Nigeria: after 2-4 years, the program reduced stunting by 8%. Bonus: Bedoya et al show that a package of transfers and assets in Afghanistan increased consumption by 30% and poverty fell from 82 to 62%.

















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Ugo Gentilini
Global Lead for Social Assistance, World Bank
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A holistic understanding of the underlying dynamics of sustainable energy system development and its effects on socio-economic and environmental aspects, in different national contexts, is necessary for improved decision making with regards to sustainable energy system planning. In this thesis, systems thinking approach (i.e. causal loop diagrams) is first applied to explore the general dynamics of sustainable energy system development, including the feedbacks and leverages that promote or prevent sustainable energy system development. Second, the emerging energy paradigm (i.e. sustainable energy) and questions related to the challenges arising from it are defined. An extensive model review, which assesses to what extent existing energy system models can provide answers or address the questions arising from the current energy paradigm is presented. This helps identify strengths and weaknesses of energy system models. One of the identified gaps in current energy system models is the simplified representation of the physical realities of renewable resources. This is particularly the case for geothermal resources. Therefore, the third step involves the development of a system dynamics model that captures the behaviour of geothermal resources when they are utilised for electricity production. This geothermal resource dynamics model can capture the effects of geothermal resource dynamics on capacity expansion, resource availability, production levels as well as development and unit production costs at a national systems level. Based on the findings that estimated costs significantly increase when geothermal resource dynamics are considered, while resource availability is also affected, the developed geothermal resource dynamics model assesses the effects of geothermal resource dynamics in Iceland and Kenya. For Kenya, an electricity system model that includes the dynamics of geothermal and hydropower is built. This model explores the effects of renewable resource dynamics (i.e. geothermal and hydropower) on electricity system planning, which is seen as a central element of sustainable energy system development in Kenya. For Iceland, the geothermal resource dynamics model was connected to the Icelandic energy and transport system model (UniSyD_IS). This enables investigating the importance of geothermal resource dynamics in the country's transition to a low-carbon sustainable transport and energy system. Results show that despite the distinct contexts of the two countries (i.e. Global North and Global South), they face similar challenges arising from the character of renewable resource dynamics. In both cases, high electricity demand growth leads to unsustainable use of geothermal resources. This results in decreasing resource availability, thereby increasing the cost of geothermal electricity (development and unit production cost). The implications on sustainable (energy) system development for each country are distinct. This research shows that comprehending the implications of geothermal resource dynamics on sustainable energy system development in countries that already exploit or plan to exploit geothermal resources on a large scale is important. Additionally, this research draws attention to the need for understanding the context-specific dynamics of sustainable energy system development in more depth for achieving sustainable energy system development in different countries. ; Heildrænn skilningur á þróun sjálfbærra orkukerfa og áhrif þeirra á umhverfi og samfélög er nauðsynlegur fyrir bætta ákvarðanatöku við skipulagningu slíkra kerfa. Í þessarri ritgerð er kerfishugsun beitt til að greina samspil mismunandi þátta og orsakatengingar í þróun sjálfbærra orkukerfa, m.a. gagnkvæm áhrif og möguleg inngrip sem ýta undir eða koma í veg fyrir sjálfbæra þróun orkukerfa. Í kjölfarið er ný hugmyndafræði um sjálfbær orkukerfi og tengdar spurningar rýnd og skilgreind. Þessi rýni felur í sér ítarlega skoðun á núverandi líkönum fyrir orkukerfi og mat á því hversu vel þau ná utan um þessa nýju hugmyndafræði. Þar með eru helstu styrkleikar og veikleikar núverandi líkana fyrir orkukerfi greindir. Einn veikleiki núverandi líkana er mikil einföldun á eðli endurnýjanlegra orkuauðlinda, þá sérstaklega fyrir jarðvarma. Því er kvikt kerfislíkan þróað sem tekur tillit til eðlis jarðvarma þegar hann er nýttur til rafmagnsframleiðslu. Þetta jarðvarmalíkan nær utan um eðli jarðvarmauðlinda á einfaldaðan hátt og þar með sýnir hugsanlega framleiðslugetu, áhrif nýtingar á auðlindina, og kostnað vegna rafmagnsframleiðslu á landsvísu. Niðurstöður þessa líkans sýna að kostnaður eykst verulega þegar hvikult eðli jarðvarmaauðlinda er tekið til greina. Einnig má greina áhrif á framleiðslugetu þessara auðlinda. Tvö viðlíka líkön eru þróuð frekar til að endurspegla aðstæður á Íslandi, annars vegar, og Kenía, hins vegar. Líkanið af íslensku jarðvarmaauðlindinni er tengt við UniSyD_IS sem er líkan af orku- og samgöngukerfi Íslands. Þar með er hægt að meta áhrif eðli jarðvarmaauðlindarinnar á orkuskipti til lág kolefna og sjálfbærra samgöngu- og orkukerfa. Líkanið af orkukerfi Kenía einblínir á rafmagnsframleiðslu og samspil notkunar jarðvarma og vatnsafls. Líkanið metur áhrif þessa samspils og eðli auðlindanna á skipulagningu raforkukerfa. En ein af undirstöðum þess að þróun orkukerfis Kenía stuðli að sjálfbærri þróun er talin góð skipulagning raforkukerfa. Niðurstöður þessarar rannsóknar sýna að þrátt fyrir ólíkar aðstæður í löndunum tveim, þá mæta þau svipuðum áskorunum vegna hvikuls eðlis endurnýjanlegra auðlinda. Í báðum tilvikum leiðir mikil eftirspurn eftir rafmagni til ósjálfbærrar nýtingar á jarðvarmaauðlindum. Afleiðing þess er minni framleiðslugetu og þar með hærra verðs og kostnaðar við framleiðslu á rafmagni úr jarðvarma. Þó eru afleiðingarnar fyrir sjálfbæra þróun orkukerfanna einnig mismunandi milli landanna tveggja. Þessi rannsókn sýnir að mikilvægt er að skilja eðli jarðvarmaauðlindarinnar, hvort sem nýting er komin skammt eða langt á veg. Nauðsynlegt er að taka til greina hvikult eðli jarðvarmaauðlinda við skipulagningu orkukerfa sem eiga að stuðla að sjálfbærri þróun. Einnig sýna þessar niðurstöður hversu miklu máli það skiptir að taka tillit til aðstæðna þegar unnið er að sjálfbærri þróun orkukerfa í mismunandi löndum. ; Une compréhension holistique des dynamiques sous-jacentes du développement de systèmes énergétiques durables et de ses effets socioéconomiques et environnementaux dans différents contextes nationaux est nécessaire pour améliorer la prise de décision en matière de planification de systèmes énergétiques durables. Dans cette thèse, l'approche systémique (p.ex. des diagrammes de boucles causales) est premièrement appliquée à l'exploration des dynamiques générales du développement durable de systèmes énergétiques, incluant notamment les retours et leviers promouvant ou restreignant ce développement. Dans un deuxième temps, le paradigme énergétique émergent (p.ex. l'énergie durable) et les questions liées à ses enjeux sont définies. Une évaluation approfondie de la mesure dans laquelle les modèles de systèmes énergétiques existants peuvent fournir des réponses aux questions soulevées par le paradigme énergétique actuel est présentée. Cela permet d'identifier les forces et faiblesses des modèles de systèmes énergétiques. Une des lacunes identifiées dans ces modèles est la représentation simplifiée des réalités physiques des ressources renouvelables, particulièrement dans le cas de ressources géothermales. Par conséquent, la troisième étape consiste à développer un modèle de dynamique des systèmes qui appréhende l'évolution de ressources géothermales lorsqu'elles sont utilisées pour la production d'électricité. Ce modèle peut capturer les effets des dynamiques de ressources géothermales sur les capacités d'expansion, la disponibilité des ressources, le niveaux de production ainsi que le développement et coûts de production unitaires aux niveau de systèmes nationaux. Basé sur l'observation que les coûts estimés augmentent considérablement lorsque la dynamique des ressources géothermales est considérée tout en affectant leur disponibilités, le modèle de dynamique des ressources géothermales élaboré évalue les effets des dynamiques de ressources géothermiques en Islande et au Kenya. Pour le Kenya, un modèle de systèmes d'électricité qui inclut les dynamiques de la géothermie et de l'hydroélectricité est construit. Ce modèle explore les effets des dynamiques de ressources renouvelables (p.ex. la géothermie et l'hydroélectricité) sur la planification de systèmes d'électricité, perçue comme un élément central du développement de systèmes d'énergie durable au Kenya. Concernant l'Islande, le modèle de dynamiques de ressources géothermales a été relié au modèle de système d'énergie et de transports islandais (UniSyD_IS). Cela permet l'investigation de l'importance des dynamiques de ressources géothermales dans la transition du pays vers un système d'énergie et de transport durable à faible émissions de carbone. Les résultats montrent que malgré le contexte distinct des deux pays (p.ex. Nord-Sud), ils font face à des défis similaires qui découlent des caractéristiques des dynamiques de ressources renouvelables. Dans les deux cas, une forte demande d'électricité mène à une utilisation non-soutenable de ressources géothermiques. Cela résulte en une baisse de ressources disponibles, augmentant de ce fait le coût de l'électricité géothermique (de développement et de production individuelle). Les implications sur le développement de systèmes (énergétiques) durables pour les deux pays sont distinctes. Cette recherche montre que comprendre les implications des dynamiques de ressources géothermales sur le développement de systèmes énergétiques durables dans des pays qui exploitent, ou prévoient d'exploiter des ressources géothermiques à grande échelle est important. De plus, cette recherche souligne le besoin d'une compréhension plus poussée des dynamiques contextuelles du développement de systèmes énergétiques durables pour parvenir au développement de systèmes énergétiques renouvelables dans différents pays. ; European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 675153

NDI's Chris Fomunyoh is once again joined by Ambassador Johnnie Carson as they discuss the steps that can be taken to strengthen democracy. They continue their conversation with their thoughts on the key challenges and opportunities facing Africa this year.
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Johnnie Carson: When female voices are not heard, the conversation is crippled, the policy is crippled, the institutions are crippled and the results are crippled.
Chris Fomunyoh: I'm Chris Fomunyoh, senior associate and regional director for Central and West Africa at the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, NDI. Welcome to this edition of DemWorks.

Again we're joined by Ambassador Johnnie Carson, a proud member of the board of directors of The National Democratic Institute, NDI with a 37 year career in the U.S. Foreign Service focus on Africa. In our previous episode, you spoke about the risk of back sliding. So for this episode, we will focus on the steps that can be taken to strengthen democracy in Africa.

I'd like us to pivot a little bit to the Sahel because in Tanzania we see the back sliding that's coming from political actors themselves, but there's something happening in the Sahel, which is a region in which we see a lot of political commitment to democratic governance, whether it's from the leaders and activists in Niger Republic, in Burkina Faso and in Mali, but at the same time these countries are coming under tremendous pressure from violent extremists who are coming across the desert and destabilizing what would be an emerging democracy and what concerns do you have and how do you think organizations like NDI, like USIP and others that have the self-power expertise, so to speak can contribute to the efforts to counter violent extremism like Sahel and also the whole of Africa?

JC: Chris you're absolutely right and we should all be concerned about outside forces that can come in and destabilize a country, its politics, its economy and its society and across the Sahel we in fact see this happening. The challenges to stability, to democracy to holding free and transparent and creditable elections and having democratic systems that work, are not only challenged by sometimes authoritarian leaders seeking to maintain power and control, we also can see this emerging as a result of exogenous forces coming in from outside, and here we see non-state actors undermining stability across the Sahel, which is creating tension for democracies and tensions for states.

I think one of the things that is absolutely critical in addressing the problems with the Sahel is for government to reconnect with their citizens, to put in place the kinds of services that citizens are looking for and are demanding and expecting. They need to be responsive to the needs that they, citizens believe are not there and they have to have these connections in order to build up resilience, to build up strength against the ideologies and to the negative forces that are brought in by extremist groups.

It is extremists groups across the Sahel are taking advantage of the absence of good services and good connectivity between government and citizens and one of the things that must accompany the security response is in fact a development and government response. Security alone cannot end the problems in the Sahel. It's an important ingredient but the most important ingredient is government going in and establishing responsible connections, providing services, education, healthcare, sanitation, water cattle feeding stations and services that citizens require and are being deprived of.

So one of the things that must be hand in hand and be out front is not the military response and the security response but the governance response, the social service response and if that is absent, the security response will be deficient and will not work.

CF: In fact, I'm so thankful you say that, because I know that you and other members of our board, Secretary Albright, in particular the chair of our board, you've been emphasizing reinforcing this message about democracy and development component as part of the toolkit in conquering violent extremism and in fact, that's the approach that NDI is taking to its work in the Sahel because we currently have ongoing programs in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, and our focus, the main focus of that piece of work is on people, processes and the politics and trying to create platforms where governments can reconnect with citizens at a grassroots level.

So in a number of cases we've set up platforms where civil society with legislatures and members of the executive branch, including representatives of the security services get together regularly to figure out what the challenges are in various communities and how to foster inter-communal dialogue and better relationships between the security services and the populations that they seek to serve, because you may remember there was a UN study that said that in many of the cases where violent extremism persist, that 70% of the people who join extremist organizations, are reacting to poor performance by security services and you have paid a lot of attention to Nigerian and the whole Boko Haram phenomenon.

I don't know how this would fit into our conversation with regards to the Sahel as well.


JC: I think it also very pertinent for Nigeria, and I too have seen studies of some very distinguished organizations, Mercy Corps and others that talk about why people are recruited and indeed, the authoritarian sometimes brutal nature of security forces towards communities that they should be protecting drives individuals away from the government and into the hands of Boko Haram.

Even the origin of the current violence in Northern Nigeria has its origins in the brutal extrajudicial killing of Boko Haram's first leader in 2009. His apprehension, his questioning, his interrogation, torture and mistreatment were all recorded on someone's cellphone and became widely seen throughout the country and throughout the north. Two years later, after that event in 2009 we saw and upsurge in 2011 and the activities of Boko Haram and indeed people continued to say that the brutal nature in which the security forces sought to root out Boko Haram, in fact generated more recruits for Boko Haram than it did for support for the government's efforts.

It is absolutely critical, it's absolutely critical that security forces recognize that they have a responsibility to protect the civil liberties and the human rights of the citizens of the state that they are protecting and that the way they treat the individuals in areas that they go into, may have an impact on their ability to ultimately win the conflict, but one thinks of Nigeria and particularly of the North East and there again weak institutions of corruption of lack of social services are all playing a major part in why the conflict in that region continues.

In the north east of Nigeria particularly and the three most affected states, Borno, Yobe and Adamawa. Those three states have the lowest social indicators of any of Nigeria's 36 states, less access to education, to healthcare, to water resources and to jobs and access and this all plays out as well. Governments needs to be responsive to their citizens and while a security response is important, governance and providing social services and the needs to citizens to build resilience is critical as well.

CF: This seems like a good place to take a short break. For well over 35 years NDI has been honored to work side by side with courageous and committed pro-democracy activists and leaders around the world to help contribute to develop the institutions practices and skills necessary for democracy's success.

I realize it's many countries to cover but in the few minutes that are left, I just see if you have any parting words for four countries that we haven't really focused that much on and those are Ethiopia, Kenya, The Democratic Republic of Congo and we'll exit with Cameroon. What are your thoughts?

JC: My thoughts on Ethiopia. It is absolutely essential that those of us who support a democracy and democratic progress lend all of our efforts to those of the Ethiopian government to ensure that the democratic experiment that is underway is successful. Prime Minister Abiy won the Nobel Prize for bringing about peace with Eritrea but the more important thing is that we, outside step up our effort to help him ensure that his legislative elections, this year, are successful and that we do what we can to strengthen his country's democratic progress.

He has appointed and outstanding leader, Birtukan, former opposition leader, spent many years in jail as his country's election commissioner. We need on the outside to provide the kind of technical and financial and advocacy support that she might need to put in place the architecture for running the country's elections. It will in fact be the first real serious elections in that country since the collapse of the Derg in the early 1990s. So it's important that we help do this.

Ethiopia is Africa's second most populous country behind Nigeria and it's important that we help democracy there. It's also a key and strategic state in the region bordering a number of other countries that will look to the success of what happens here. So we need to support.

Kenya, will have elections next year. It is important that there be a continuation in the improvement of the country's electoral agencies. The shadow of the flawed and failed and controversial and violent elections of 2007 and 2008 continue to be a shadow. The controversies associated with the last elections and court decisions there continue to hang over. It is important to continue to support civil society, support the electoral commission and work with the Kenyan government to ensure an outcome.

It appears very clearly that President Kenyatta wants to leave a positive legacy of progress, economically, politically and electorally. This will be a challenge but we should support the process moving forward. The features are still there.

CF: In fact, I should say before end up with the last two countries that for listeners, Ethiopia has got a parliamentary system of government. That's why the parliamentary elections are extremely important, the national elections for Ethiopia and also with regards to Kenya, as you say, President Uhuru Kenyatta would like to leave a good legacy. He's coming to the end of his second term and NDI working with partners on the continent has been very strong on the issue constitutionalism, respect for rule of law. In fact, we had a continent wide conference in Niamey, Niger Republic last October on the whole question of presidential term limits and we'll be having a second conference in Botswana in June to discuss term limits with former African heads of states and various other partners on the continent.

Just to say that, as leaders relinquish power when their terms come to an end, they help consolidate and strengthen democratic practices and institutions. So, with the two remaining countries-

JC: I applaud President Kenyatta for saying very early on that he would adhere to the constitution, he would serve two terms and step down. This is an important message for the most important country in East Africa, especially looking at the neighboring states, particularly Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda where leaders there have found ways to extend themselves in office. He recognizes the importance of transition at the top and allowing the citizens of the country to select new leadership on a constitutional basis rather than trying to alter the constitution to eliminate term limits, age limits and perpetuate themselves in power.

So I hope others in the region are in fact looking at Kenya's model. One jumps across to West Africa and looks at President Paul Biya who's been in power for three decades, plus shows no desire whatsoever to leave office. Here is a man who has lost touch with his citizens and the communities of his country and because he has lost touch with his citizens, because there have been structural deficiencies and weaknesses and the institutions that he is responsible for, we now see a country that is suffering from three or four major political crisis, crisis with the English speaking portion of this country in the south west, the emergence of Boko Haram and radicalism across the border from Nigeria in the north west and problems of herders and farmers driven by drought and climate conditions.

President Biya has lost touch with the needs of his citizens and his government has not been responsive to anyone but himself and a small political elite. I think it is important for the international community to point out the failures and the flaws of his governance, the corruption that underpins it and to support those internally who are pushing for a constitution and political policies that fundamentally change the nature and structure of society, political architecture in society.

CF: You're so right, because that's one country that it's got tremendous potential but that it's not pulling its weight at all and because of its strategic location, invariably weakens other countries in the central Africa sub region, as well as in West Africa too and it's now taking full advantage of what could be real opportunities to improve the wellbeing of its citizens.

We'll be right back after this quick message.

And let's end with the country right in the heart of the continent, The Democratic Republic of Congo. I was in Kinshasa in October and met with political leaders and opinion leaders across the board, civil society, religious leaders who are very powerful in the Congo, very influential and I came away, I should say, a little more optimistic than I was going in. I was quite apprehensive given what has transpired in the 2018 presidential elections but after talking to the Congolese, I got a sense that a genuine attachment to reform.

Everybody wants some reforms of the political process or the electoral process and the key question is whether they are going to be able to set aside their personal agendas and actually get together to help this country, which has got tremendous resources and tremendous potential get back on its feet. I was very impressed by the fact that most of the leaders in Congo are pretty young. I know that you and I have talked about Congo for many, many times and when you were still in the administration you had to deal with some of their crisis.

I don't know what you take is on the present leadership and the present challenges but also the opportunities that present themselves in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

JC: Let me say that The Democratic Republic of the Congo has more unrealized potential than any other large state in Africa and that potential has continued to be in held in check and not realized because of the poor nature of the politics that have occurred there since the 1960s.

The 2018 elections were deeply flawed and irregular and not representative, I think, of the vote of the people. The one thing that one can say about the process that it did lead to President Kabila stepping down and a new younger president, Tshisekedi coming into power. There was immediately after the election a strong feeling that Tshisekedi was going to be instrument of Kabila going forward in that his leadership and his authority and his ability to do things would be substantially constrained. Tshisekedi has shown some degree of independence.

It is again important to recognize that there is little we can do to rerun that election or to reverse it but there is something that all of us can do going forward, and that to put pressure on President Tshisekedi to ensure that the electoral commission is strengthened, it has more independence, more technical capacity and more of an ability to deliver a more responsible, fair and transparent election going forward.

It is also important that he continue the fight against corruption, that he begin to put in place the kind of economic reforms that are going to unleash the potential of the Congo and to provide the people, The Democratic Republic of the Congo an opportunity to realize so many of the opportunities that they have been denied in the past. He has shown more independence than I thought but it is important that he not stop, that he continue to move forward, that he open up political space and continue to open it up for civil society, for the opposition, for the media, that he not constrain but unleash the country's potential and that he continue to show both in reality and fact his independence away from Kabila and those who were around him in the past.

He will be judged on the next four years very keenly, but it's important that the institutions of democracy to the extent that we can help civil society strengthen them, that they be nurtured and pushed forward. Elections and democracy...Democracy doesn't depend essentially, solely on elections. It is institutions that must be strengthened and we can help the DRC and civil society move those forward.

Again, working effectively with religions groups, Catholic Church, a very powerful instrument, working with women's groups, with working youth groups across the DRC and working with an emerging entrepreneurial class of young Congolese as well. We have to nurture and strengthen and push them forward. These next elections will be able to tell us whether there's been progress. President Tshisekedi needs to continue to move forward.

CF: Thank you very much Ambassador Johnnie Carson. It's really been an honor to have you do this tutor for us on the entire continent. Of course there still would always be ground to cover. As you were speaking, I thought about what late President John F Kennedy said about democracy as a never ending endeavor, and so NDI and similar organizations will continue to work side by side with our African partners to make sure that we can support them, give them the support and share experiences that they need so that we can all collectively, continue to work to strengthen and support democracy in countries like the DRC, Ethiopia, Sudan and across the entire continent.

Thank you also for being a member of our board of directors. We are extremely proud of that and extremely proud of the partnership that NDI has with USIP and hope that our two organizations would continue to work together to support the growth of democracy across Africa and to our listeners, can I just say thank you for sharing in this edition of DemWorks, to follow our next podcast. Please check us out on our website www.NDI.org.

Thank you for listening.


Ambassador Johnnie Carson





Peace, Security and Democratic Resilience,

Introduzione Il fine di questa ricerca è quello di individuare i luoghi in cui Apollo viene chiamato in causa e la funzione filosofica che questi richiami al dio assumono. Apollo, benchè in modo complesso e plurivoco, incarna un preciso tipo di ideale che non solo ha avuto una decisiva risonanza nella filosofia antica, ma rappresenta ed ha rappresentao un modello, un riferimentoper la divinazione e la sapienza oracolare, un paradigma di saggezza. Dunque, il mio intento è quello di individuare nel contesto platonico in che modo questa plurivocità di aspetti sia impegnata come strumento filosofico da Platone ogniqualvolta Apollo sia richiamato nei dialoghi. Emergerà che, benchè in modo complesso, Platone sembra isolare e impiegare maggiormente una dimensione dell'apollineo, quella forse più pura, legata all'ordine, alla razionalità, e a ciò che non a caso oggi si definisce "apollineo" di individuare nel contesto letterario, ogni qual volta l'apollineo si manifesta, dimostrando il modo in cui lo stesso strumento filosofico-letterario del dialogo utilizzato da Platone, corrisponda alla stessa concezione ordinata e razionale che si incarna nell'apollineo. Chiarezza e forma sono due elementi che hanno pienamente a che fare con l'intento di quella parte di grecità che ha abbandonato l'ebrezza dionisiaca per aspirare al raggiungimento di un equilibrio. Un primo passo necessario di questa idagine consiste nello stabilire alcune linee guida che gettino luce sul ruolo che Apollo ha nella cultura greca. Essa, in effetti, è permeata in innumerevoli aspetti - dalla musica, all'arte, alla poesia, alla scultura,- da caratteristiche proprie dell'ideale apollineo. Più nello specifico il capitolo primo riassume brevemente la leggenda mitologica della nascita di Apollo sull'Isola di Delo, avvenuta dopo i vagabondaggi della madre Latona perseguitata da Era, gelosa di Zeus e della sua permanenza nella terra degli Iperborei. Apollo è inoltre legato a varie figure mitologiche come Helios, Marsia ed anche Pitone, il serpente da lui sconfitto, a lui fanno capo differenti appellativi a seconda delle sue qualità via via attribuitegli nel tempo: il "raggiante", il "soccorritore dei mali". Apollo è inoltre il dio della musica, della danza, colui che soccorre dalle sventure, ma ne è anche foriero: la duplicità è un elemento di forte fascino, che colpisce colui il quale, scoprendo questa divinità, non potrà fare a meno di imbattersi in questa sua caratteristica. Il canto cultuale di Apollo è il Peana, canto risanatore intonato per la prima volta a Delo per celebrare la vittoria del Dio sul mostro mitologico, Pitone. Apollo è il kuros, il giovane bello e scolpito nelle sculture classiche, la sapienza a lui consacrata è una delle più antiche nella nostra cultura: la fondazione del tempio di Delfi a lui consacrato risale al 1400 a.C e nello stadio a fianco si svolgevano i famosi Giochi Pitici, che seguivano tre anni l'Olimpiade e prendevano il nome dalla Pizia, la sacerdotessa che pronunciava gli oracoli in nome di Apollo. Apollo è il più bell'esempio di un dio che esercitò per lungo tempo la massima influenza sulla vita religiosa della Grecia, pur senza far uso del suo potere per opprimere gli altri. Le due sezioni conclusive del primo capitolo sono dedicate rispettivamente: la prima agli edifici sacri e la seconda ad Asclepio, mitologico figlio di Apollo e divinità medica, legato al padre da molti aneddoti. Tali aneddoti in maniera interessante, anche per questo nostro elaborato, individuano una più ampia paternità apollinea: Apollo avrebbe creato Platone per curare i mali dell'anima con la sua filosofia e Asclepio, medico del corpo, per alleviare la sofferenza fisica all'umanità. Il secondo capitolo è dedicato alle fonti, in particolare ai poeti di età arcaica, le cui opere sono ausilio importante per rintracciare la storia di questa divinità e l'influenza che essa ebbe all'interno della cultura scritta e orale greca. La prima fonte ad essere presa in considerazione sono alcune sezioni dell'Iliade, dalla quale deriva la maggior parte delle nostre conoscenze letterarie sulla mitologia greca e nelle quali l'intervento di Apollo si fa importante permettendo di riflette su quello che abbiamo già detto essere il duplice volto della divinità. Esaminando Gli Inni Omerici, in particolare due che sono dedicati ad Apollo: l'Inno III e XXI insieme a l'Inno Alle Muse, notiamo che essi comprendono alcune tra le pagine più belle della letteratura greca e corporazioni di poeti (soprattuto i cosiddetti Omeridi) li andarono recitando per secoli in Asia Minore, e in Grecia, per rallegrare le feste dove si radunavano i greci. Passando alla lirica corale, faremo riferimento a Pindaro (Tebe 518 a.C circa, Argo 438 a.C). Le sue opere, Olimpiche, Pitiche (dedicate ai giochi per Apollo), Inni e Peani, sono ricche di riferimenti ad Apollo, divinità spesso al centro di espisodi mitologici al centro dei componimenti poetici di Pindaro. Da Omero a Pindaro erano fiorite intense stagioni di poesia e insieme discussioni radicali sui "generi": se in Pindaro ritroviamo una mistione di epos e lirica, di attualità e mito, in Omero si assisteva ad una pura ed estensiva narrazione mitologica, come anche negli Inni è presente l'invocazione al nume e l'evocazione delle sue gesta che si avvicendavano naturalmente. Spesso, infatti, Pindaro tocca un motivo epico al volo, ci ritorna a volte con impegno più profondo e lo sviluppa ariosamente. Tuttavia, non verrà trascurata la storiografia, in particolare Erodoto (Alicarnasso 484 a.C- Turi 430 a.C): storico greco fondamentale per la lettura della storia dei popoli esaminati nelle sue Storie, è indubbiamente utile per rintracciare l'importanza di Apollo e soprattutto della sapienza filosofico-oracolare a lui consacrata. Conclusi questi due capitoli, i quali hanno una funzione introduttiva dal punto di vista della tematica, si entra nel vivo della argomentazione che ritengo centrale: l'analisi delle sezioni dei Dialoghi platonici nei quali entra a fare parte Apollo. Il capitolo III "Apollo all'interno dei dialoghi platonici", sarà un breve excursus tra i Dialoghi, tra quelli in cui Apollo si manifesta, ed il suo mostrarsi noteremo che non avverrà in maniera casuale bensì in maniera strategica, a seconda della tematica affrontata nel dialogo. Si comincia con l'Apologia , nella quale, quasi all'inizio, il dio enigmatico di Delfi rivela a Socrate, tramite l'oracolo, che proprio lui, il più sapiente degli uomini, in quanto, il filosofo, "sapendo di non sapere", è consapevole che la vera sapienza sia solo raggiungibile pienamente dalla divinità e all'uomo è dato sperimentarla solo in parte, cercando di raggiugerla con l'esercizio filosofico. Nel Protagora, si cerca di dimostrare che la prassi educativa utilizzata dai cosiddetti sofisti sia inconsistente. Apollo qui non compare ma, Socrate, cita il tempio Delfico e la celebre massima del "conosci te stesso" incisa su la sua parete. All'interno dell'Eutidemo, il dialogo che si occupa della critica dell'eristica (arte di "battagliare" con le parole) Apollo compare in primo luogo, in maniera indiretta, venendo nominata la sua statua crisoelefantina di Delfi ed in secondo luogo è definito patrio da Socrate: secondo gli ateniesi infatti Apollo era ritenuto padre di Ione, antenato degli ateniesi, dunque capostipite degli Ioni, una delle quattro popolazioni elleniche dell'antica Grecia del II millennio. Nel Cratilo, il dialogo dedicato al tema della correttezza dei nomi, viene analizzata l'etimologia del nome delle divinità tra le quali anche Apollo, essa mostra al lettore il suo volto variopinto e nuovamente duplice: distruttore e purificatore ("colui che lava e scioglie"). Così facendo, Apollo è un ausilio che conferma la tesi della concezione naturalistica del linguaggio evinta dal dialogo, ovvero l'identità (di significato) tra nome e cosa nominata. Fedone, racconta le ultime ore della vita di Socrate e porta con sè il celebre tema dell'immortalità dell'anima, in questo dialogo, numerosi sono i riferimenti ad Apollo e al figlio Asclepio: si comincia con il ritorno delle navi recatesi a Delo per celebrare la vittoria della divinità sul Minotauro che fanno rientro ad Atene, ritardando così la morte del filosofo; nel corso del dialogo assisitiamo al discorso di Socrate, il quale si mostra sereno dinanzi alla morte grazie al conforto fornitogli da Apollo, ancilla di una musica altissima (filosofia). Nel Fedone si nota il modo in cui Socrate si assimili ai cigni, animali sacri ad Apollo, che alla fine della loro vita emettono un suono di gioia; questo comportamento è il medesimo del filosofo, che prima della morte appare disteso e sereno come testimoniano coloro che siedono intorno al maestro condividendo con lui le ultime ore della sua vita. Mentre, all'interno del celebre discorso sull'amore, il Simposio, Apollo è introdotto dal "Mito di Aristofane" nel quale si racconta la modalità con la quale avvenne la divisione nell'uomo che provocò in lui una perpetua ricerca della propria metà. La nostra divinità si inserisce nella argomentazione aristofanea come risanatore delle "cicatrici" provocate da suo padre Zeus, nel corpo umano: egli ricuce il ventre dell'uomo con la maestria di un artigiano. Apollo ritorna in seguito come discepolo di Amore il quale, guidandolo, gli ha permesso di esercitare quelle discipline che sono passate alla storia come sue proprie quali: medicina, musica e tiro con l'arco. Nel Fedro, si prende in esame un particolare tipo di sapienza mistica: la mantica. Essa appartiene senza dubbio ad Apollo, egli rende capace i suoi medium (la Pizia, profetessa di Delfi) di "vedere oltre" e lo scopo di Platone, per bocca di Socrate, è andare alla ricerca di questa "sapienza". Ma ciò è possibile solo solo mediante la guida delle Muse, le nove divinità della religione greca che hanno come guida proprio Apollo. Il Timeo, è il dialogo dedicato alla creazione del cosmo ed Apollo è qui personificato con Helios, il sole; si narra infatti che Fetonte sia figlio del sole e che, mal conducendo il suo carro bruciò una parte del cielo, cosicchè si creò la Via Lattea. L'ultimo dialogo che viene affrontato nel Capitolo III è il Crizia, in cui è presente una invocazione ad Apollo e alle nove Muse a lui consacrate per bocca di Ermocrate all'interno di una argomentazione da lui condotta. La modalità con la quale Apollo viene inserito in questo dialogo consente di far luce sulla maniera con la quale il culto apollineo era entrato a far parte a tutti gli effetti della vita degli abitanti della antica Grecia. Nell' Assioco (dialogo pseudo-platonico) Apollo ricorre ben due volte. In primo luogo, nel momento in cui si parla dei due fratelli Agamede e Trofonio, dei quali la leggenda narra avessero edificato il tempio di Apollo Pizio; in secondo luogo, un altro personaggio della mitologia che viene nominato nel dialogo è Anfiarao, indovino protetto da Zues e Apollo. Da questa ampia ricognizione si evince che ad Apollo è attribuito sicuramente un ruolo, che sia secondario o primario, all'interno delle varie tematiche (soprattutto richiami mitologici) dei dialoghi. Tuttavia l'elemento da sottolineare è che Platone ne fa comunque un uso molto ampio e lo fa soprattutto per richiamare l'ideale apollineo, il quale, rappresentando ordine e armonia, diviene lo stesso strumento ordinatore delle tematiche e dei dialoghi stessi. Il quarto, ed il quinto capitolo, si occupano degli scritti politici del filosofo, con particolare attenzione, ancora una volta, nei confronti del ruolo che Apollo svolge all'interno di essi, ma anche in relazione allo statuto della religione all'interno dei due grandi progetti politici della Repubblica e delle Leggi. Il quarto capitolo tratta del grande dialogo politico della Repubblica. Il ruolo che svolgerà la religione è funzionale all'assetto statale e di controllo in quanto, Platone, condanna ogni forma di religiosità misterica (soprattutto nel libro IV) o ispirata ed il cittadino dovrà osservare, al di là del culto per una particolare divinità, un grande rispetto per il sacro. Gli dei e le divinità in primis, tra le quali Apollo, saranno rispettate dal cittadino, insieme ai templi sacri a lui consacrati. Nel secondo libro della Repubblica Platone compie una critica della mitologia: i miti sono pericolosi perchè, pur costituendo il nucleo principale dell'educazione, falsificano l'idea delle divinità che sono le protagoniste dei racconti. Apollo ricorre spesso in altri passi della Repubblica che riportano racconti mitologici ma in ogni caso sarà raffigurato come una divinità positiva in quanto al fanciullo deve sempre essere consegnata dai miti ammessi all'interno della educazione statale, una immagine benevola della divinità. I libri VI e VII della Repubblica si occupano di analizzare due miti importanti il cosiddetto "mito della caverna" nel quale Helios svolge un ruolo fondamentale e Apollo è tirato in causa dai dialoganti alla stregua di una esclamazione ma, la sua apparizione, insieme alla metafora del sole, impone una riflessione: egli, grande divintà solare, assume sempre di più, a partire dall'epoca arcaica fino ad oggi, il carattere del dio della luce, purificatore e guaritore, Apollo sembra quasi che abbia una funzione ancillare in questo snodo dell'opera, nel quale Platone per bocca di Socrate spiega la sua teoria della conoscenza; la divinità, quindi, accompagnerebbe il lettore intento a cercare quel fascio di luce nella argomentazione della "teoria della conoscenza" platonica. Notiamo, dunque, tornando al principio della nostra riflessione, la quale è partita dalla concezione della religione nella Repubblica, che lo spirito apollineo, in questa opera ricorre spesso e la pervade tutta. La religione nel nuovo Stato rappresenta un ausilio alla norma generica della giustizia e del mantenimento dell'ordine e le stesse divinità sono si, certamente, ammesse, ma con precipue funzioni tutte dedicate al medesimo scopo: mantenere ordine e equilibrio nello stato. Il principio razionale, dunque è la luce che illumina il cammino della realizzazione dello stato platonico e l'ideale armonico apollineo, possiamo spingerci ad affermare, che si costituisce come una delle sue inesauribili fonti, senza ordine e misura la costruzione politica e filosofica della Repubblica non sussisterebbe. Nel quinto capitolo vengono esaminate le Leggi, nel dialogo, oltre ai riti è la tradizione che riveste una grande importanza. Sia che il discorso tratti di argomenti religiosi, di argomenti politici o di qualsiasi altro genere di problemi, è sempre chiaro che Platone ha alta considerazione per ogni genere di tradizione, soprattutto per ciò che è consacrato da un'antica origine e dalla credenza comune o collettiva. Le divinità regolano in generale i rapporti tra gli uomini a partire da quelli sociali fino ad arrivare a quelli economici; sono gli dei, infatti, a dare agli uomini le leggi, li puniscono, a volte, durante la loro esistenza terrena come anche nell'Ade. Se molte volte nelle Leggi si parla del dio o degli dei in forma impersonale, senza designarne specificatamente qualcuno, è anche vero che in parecchi luoghi le divinità della religione tradizionale sono espressamente designate per nome e viene ribadita, senza possibilità di fraintendimento, l'adesione alla religione concretamente esistente che è nelle Leggi una delle isitituzioni fondamentali, anzi, il perno essenziale di tutto l'ordine sociale e politico. In questo quadro, Apollo compare in modo ricorrente, quasi in ognuno dei dodici libri dell'opera. Apollo compare spesso nelle Leggi come ancilla della musica (mousikè)disciplina posta al vertice della piramide educativa dei fanciulli dello stato,Apollo dunque è foriero di ritmo ordinatore funzionale all'assetto statale,contrapposto al furore bacchico dionisiaco, e Platone, citandolo a proposito delle discipline a lui consacrate, sottolinea il suo equilibrio e misura. Nell'occasione della votazione del supremo magistrato preposto all'educazione, la quale avviene nel tempio di Apollo, ambito sacro e polis si intersecano, infatti nel libro XII i nuovi "revisori" dello stato ricoprono anche un ruolo semi-sacrale. Interessante è anche l'uso che il filosofo compie di Apollo chiamandolo molte volte Helios;sembra che ne faccia (di Apollo), nell'ecomia generale del discorso a proposito delle Leggi, un vero e proprio culto da osservare con devozione(i nuovi "revisori"diverranno essi stessi sacerdoti di Apollo) e, Platone, fa derivare la legislazione politica della polis, direttamente dalla divinità: l'Apollo patrio tanto caro agli abitanti della antica Grecia.Il libro X è ritenuto particolarmente importante per la tematica affrontata sulla empietà: l'ateismo nelle Leggi viene considerato un'infrazione alla connessione sussitente tra ordine cosmico e ordine politico ed in esso viene anche sviluppata l'idea di religiosità cosmica. Apollo è, in questa opera, colui che disciplina mediante le materie educative da lui incarnate il nuovo e vecchio cittadino, mettendolo su un cammino non oscuro ed incentro ma, su di una strada armonica e volta al rispetto delle norme vigenti lo Stato. L'uso che il filosofo fa in questa sede di Apollo è sostanzialmente di due tipi: regolativo, perchè guida l'individuo all'interno della legislazione statale ed educativo, in quanto, le discipline a lui corrispondenti formano il carattere del futuro cittadino. Il capitolo VI dedicato alle Espistole è il penultimo dell'elaborato, contiene in primo luogo una riflessione a proposito della loro autenticità (le lettere ad eccezione della VII e, con più dubbi, dell'VIII sono ritenute spurie), tuttavvia, la Lettera XIII anche se spuria, contiene un interessante riferimento ad Apollo, o meglio ad un kuros, una statuetta votiva della raffigurante un giovane ed in questo caso Apollo, commissionata da Dionisi di Siracusa a Platone: Apollo incarna l'ideale estetico di bellezza della classicità e le sue state sono una presenza costante in questa epoca e nei templi della antica Grecia, utilizzate dalla popolazione per invocare la divinità e concedergli preghiere. L'ultimo capitolo si occupa della aneddotica, in effetti, molto interessanti risultano gli aneddoti a proposito di Platone, celebri quelli che hanno a che fare con la sua nascita proposti da Giamblico e Diogene Laerzio: riuniscono Platone insieme a suo figlio Asclepio, sotto il segno di Apollo, il quale sembra egli stesso essere padre di Platone. Ampliando l'indagine con l'analisi di altri fonti e non solo, il capitolo stabilisce inoltre legame anche tra i due e Pitagora, altra figura posta sotto il segno di Apollo. Al termine di questa analisi potremo affermare da un lato che Apollo è presente in modo diffuso nelle opere di Platone, che riflettono la ricchezza e la complessità della sua figura, dall'altro che l'apollineo, inteso come spirito razionale e ordinatore, riflette la volontà platonica di marginalizzare in vari ambiti della sua riflessione tutto ciò che è asimmetrico e mancante di proporzioni. In fondo, la stessa forma del Dialogo come strumento filosofico rappresenta il tentativo di unificare un universo colmo di idee e concetti senza abolirne la complessità, anzi facendola fluire in una forma peculiare di comunicazione filosofica, quella dialogica. Si tratta, nei contenuti, di un progetto ambizioso, che va dal tentativo di utilizzare l'apollineo per ordinare una nuova vita comunitaria al programma di cogliere l'ordine divino e astrale: l'apollineo ordina, crea armonia, è luce (Helios). Quella luce che risplende, diffusa, in tutta la opera di Platone.

AMÉRICA LATINA Rousseff veta la amnistía a los deforestadores de la Amazonia.Para más información: http://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/article/2012/05/25/veto-partiel-a-une-loi-reduisant-la-protection-de-l-amazonie-au-bresil_1707787_3222.html http://sociedad.elpais.com/sociedad/2012/05/25/actualidad/1337974767_878665.html http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/25/world/americas/brazil-forest-code/index.html?hpt=wo_bn8 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-brazil-forests-20120529,0,2383595.storyIndígenas en Brasil piden ante Ministerio de Salud mejoras sanitarias.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/indigenas-en-brasil-piden-ante-ministerio-de-salud-mejoras-sanitarias_11908841-47"El País" de Madrid entrevista al ex presidente chileno Patricio Aylwin.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/05/26/actualidad/1338051981_784799.htmlDevaluaciones en el Cono Sur: Brasil y Argentina luchan de forma opuesta contra las oscilaciones del dólar.Para más información: http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2012/05/25/actualidad/1337961496_336481.html http://www.economist.com/node/21555901 Controles de divisas: el oficialismo argentino cree "un suicidio" liberar dólares.Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/29/internacional/internacional/noticias/F1EE250C-583F-4E2F-98CF-96BE208BA64A.htm?id={F1EE250C-583F-4E2F-98CF-96BE208BA64A} FreeEconomía de Argentina se 'venezolaniza' tras restricción al dólar.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/economa-de-argentina-se-venezolaniza_11887521-4 FARC anuncia liberación de periodista francés Roméo Langlois.Para más información: http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/farc-anunciam-libertacao-de-jornalista-frances-5035675 http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/27/world/americas/colombia-farc-hostage/index.html?hpt=wo_bn8 http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/28/internacional/internacional/noticias/F9974F49-23DC-492D-8CC3-F453FACD1FD2.htm?id={F9974F49-23DC-492D-8CC3-F453FACD1FD2}http://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/article/2012/05/27/les-farc-annoncent-la-liberation-prochaine-de-romeo-langlois_1708053_3222.html Intensas lluvias afectan la costa pacífica mexicana tras rastros del huracán Bud.Para más información: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47522794/ns/weather/#.T8WMKFLMqw4 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico-cartel-war-20120528,0,5990329.storyEl cartel Mexicano "Zetas" reescribe la guerra contra el narcotráfico con sangre: se cobró 55000 vidas en los últimos 5 años.Para más información: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47534398/ns/world_news-americas/#.T8WMRlLMqw4Movimiento juvenil 'Yo soy 132' sacude elección presidencial mexicana.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/movimiento-yo-soy-132-sacude-a-mxico_11887421-4 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico-election-students-20120525,0,6629519.storyBomba en hotel en la frontera mexicana hiere a 10 personas.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/25/world/americas/mexico-violence/index.html?hpt=wo_bn8"The Economist" analiza los derechos y la lucha de los homosexuales en Chile.Para más información: http://www.economist.com/node/21555943"CNN" cubre conmovedora historia de hija de desaparecidos.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/25/world/americas/argentina-body-identified/index.html?hpt=wo_c2Estado de emergencia en Perú tras violentos choques entre manifestantes y fuerzas gubernamentales.Para más información: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/world/americas/peru-confronts-wounds-of-civil-war.html?ref=world&gwh=B327C152762581AEE5F5B5F77441F8DB http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-18245924 http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/05/reporting-from-lima-and-bogota-the-peruvian-government-on-tuesday-declared-a-state-of-emergency-in-a-southeastern-provin.html http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/29/internacional/internacional/noticias/64A09014-C569-48BA-A3C8-CA2C016CE10E.htm?id={64A09014-C569-48BA-A3C8-CA2C016CE10E} Haití pagará incentivos a madres que envíen a sus hijos a escuela a través de una inusual vía.Para más información: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-18245302Oposición estudia interpelar al ex Presidente Lula. Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/28/internacional/_portada/noticias/C8A32906-5B14-4E71-AD3A-A201D804D377.htm?id={C8A32906-5B14-4E71-AD3A-A201D804D377} Honduras es fuertemente afectada por la violencia y el narcotráfico.Para más información: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47583232/ns/world_news-americas/#.T8WMI1LMqw4 http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/23/11824962-hunt-for-drug-trafficker-terrorizes-honduras-village?liteEl rascacielos más alto de América Latina está ahora en Chile.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/rascacielos-en-amrica-latina_11887384-4"Los Angeles Times" analiza cambio económico de la zona de Recife.Para más información: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-brazil-migration-20120524,0,4095576.storyPerspectivas ante la crisis: la falta de innovación es el principal riesgo para las economías de América Latina. Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/29/internacional/_portada/noticias/ECE4BAE6-8780-495C-B6E2-9BC958EBE50B.htm?id={ECE4BAE6-8780-495C-B6E2-9BC958EBE50B} ESTADOS UNIDOS / CANADÁRomney se convierte oficialmente en el candidato republicano en Estados Unidos.Para más información: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-05/30/content_15422399.htmhttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/romney-se-convierte-oficialmente-en-candidato-republicano-en-ee-uu_11910083-4 http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/850343.html http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/05/27/actualidad/1338069757_779175.html http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/primarias-en-texas-coronaran-a-romney_11893382-4 Diversos medios presentan portales sobre las elecciones en Estados Unidos.Para más información: http://elpais.com/tag/elecciones_eeuu_2012/a/ http://www.economist.com/world/us-elections-2012 http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/28/internacional/_portada/noticias/658CC1D5-B1F1-461C-8380-9A2CA90E907E.htm?id={658CC1D5-B1F1-461C-8380-9A2CA90E907E}Día de los Caídos en Estados Unidos marcado por un expreso patriotismo.Para más información: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-05/30/content_15420651.htmEstados Unidos expulsó a diplomáticos sirios tras matanza de Hula.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/pases-expulsaron-a-diplomticos-sirios-en-protesta-por-masacre_11903962-4 http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/29/11933554-us-expels-syria-diplomat-after-un-finds-houla-victims-were-executed?liteTerrorismo: Estados Unidos revela complot iraní para atacar diplomáticos.Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/29/internacional/internacional/noticias/2DAFABD8-2AA4-4E1C-B786-33025575B939.htm?id={2DAFABD8-2AA4-4E1C-B786-33025575B939} Obama condecora a activistas sociales y personalidades culturales.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/850302.htmlObama espera la ayuda de Rusia para sacar a Assad del poder.Para más información: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/world/middleeast/us-seeks-russias-help-in-removing-assad-in-syria.html?ref=world&gwh=90658E13179241E506FC2332C0AC042B"The Economist" analiza situación de la economía canadiense.Para más información: http://www.economist.com/world/americasEUROPAItalia, sacudida por dos fuertes terremotos en diez días.Para más información: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-05/30/content_15419005.htm http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/850161.html http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/29/11931934-at-least-16-die-as-58-magnitude-earthquake-hits-italy?lite http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/italia-sacudida-por-dos-terremotos-en-diez-dias-_11908781-4 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-italy-quake-20120530,0,7310236.story Países europeos retiran sus misiones diplomáticas en Siria.Para más información: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-05/30/content_15421937.htm Francia no descarta una intervención armada en Siria.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/850265.htmlRusia critica reporte del Departamento de Estado de los Estados Unidos sobre Derechos Humanos.Para más información: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-05/29/content_15411545.htm Rusia escéptica frente a la violencia gubernamental siria. Para más información: http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/russia-diz-nao-acreditar-que-massacre-foi-obra-do-governo-sirio-5037946#ixzz1w7qg16kP http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18235965 Varios portales presentan noticias sobre la actual situación económica europea.Para más información: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/business/economy/in-the-euro-zone-a-lethal-vacuum-economic-view.html?ref=world&gwh=81BD5CCF2311C5C59EA666F0CA958D7E http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2012/05/europes-biggest-fear http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2012/05/25/actualidad/1337978907_477033.html http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/28/business/global/in-euro-zone-a-debate-over-bonds.html?hp&gwh=5898A980191E7A17FA2FD866662ADF60"The Economist" analiza el futuro de la Unión Europea.Para más información: http://www.economist.com/node/21555916Indignación griega por palabras de la directora del FMI.Para más información: http://www.economist.com/node/21555923 http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2012/05/27/lagarde-demande-aux-grecs-de-payer-leurs-impots_1708007_3214.html http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/indignacin-griega-por-palabras-de-christine-lagarde_11893261-4 Berlín trabaja en propuestas concretas de crecimiento y empleo.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/05/25/actualidad/1337956415_596350.html Merkel y su política para enfrentar la crisis. Para más información: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-europe-merkel-debt-20120523,0,4350685.story España temerosa de una posible corrida bancaria.Para más información: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-spain-banks-20120527,0,5484420.story http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/world/europe/small-and-medium-businesses-suffer-as-spain-bank-loans-shrivel.html?ref=world&gwh=7C182BC6AD40B86611BBD4E3BD3A1468Escocia abre la campaña por la independencia con escaso apoyo.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/05/25/actualidad/1337946515_309380.html Alexis Tsipras, líder del principal partido griego de izquierda: El hombre que tiene en vilo a Europa. Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/28/internacional/internacional/noticias/C9E09C46-902D-4B72-BE69-E491B323A291.htm?id={C9E09C46-902D-4B72-BE69-E491B323A291} Primer Ministro francés supera a Hollande en popularidad Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/28/internacional/internacional/noticias/07B6C2CE-345A-47CC-B3B8-6545FCDE9C7F.htm?id={07B6C2CE-345A-47CC-B3B8-6545FCDE9C7F}Los socialistas franceses buscan una mayoría cómoda en el Parlamento.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/05/26/actualidad/1338053308_457391.htmlPresidente francés quiere diseñar una nueva arquitectura para la Unión Europea.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/05/25/actualidad/1337969518_099803.htmlHollande estrena su diplomacia balsámica en Europa.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/05/24/actualidad/1337878262_956877.html Policía española captura al jefe del aparato militar de ETA y a su lugarteniente en elsuroeste de Francia.Para más información: http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2012/05/27/deux-membres-de-l-eta-arretes-dans-le-sud-ouest_1708059_3214.html http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/28/internacional/_portada/noticias/AA04D948-AA22-42DE-B07D-9D88DFB508B0.htm?id={AA04D948-AA22-42DE-B07D-9D88DFB508B0}Futuro de Assange se define en Londres.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/850237.html Unos 100.000 opositores se manifiestan contra Saakashvili en Georgia.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/05/27/actualidad/1338153555_951248.htmlEl Vaticano prepara más detenciones por la filtración de documentos.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/05/27/actualidad/1338149211_138021.html Cuarenta personas fueron arrestadas tras protestas por derechos de homosexuales en Moscú.Para más información: http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/quarenta-presos-apos-confusao-em-protestos-por-direitos-gays-em-moscou-5037143#ixzz1w7qcyJkhBlair explicó su relación con magnate Rupert Murdoch.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/relacin-entre-tony-blair-y-el-magnate-rupert-murdoch_11903021-4 http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/29/internacional/internacional/noticias/4B2743A3-7187-47ED-85E8-CDFBF2835211.htm?id={4B2743A3-7187-47ED-85E8-CDFBF2835211} http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/05/28/2821686/tony-blair-says-he-ducked-fight.html#storylink=cpy Juez Baltasar Garzón cumplirá su pena de inhabilitación en 2022.Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/29/internacional/internacional/noticias/1C0F5B3C-4550-439B-97CE-9BE8A5C55F8F.htm?id={1C0F5B3C-4550-439B-97CE-9BE8A5C55F8F}Policía danesa arresta a dos personas que planeaban ataque.Para más información: http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/29/11936205-police-arrest-two-men-over-denmark-terror-attack-plot?liteLiberada una joven que vivió ocho años bajo esclavitud en Bosnia.Para más información: http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/29/11939390-teenager-allegedly-held-as-slave-in-bosnia-for-years?lite http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/liberada-una-joven-alemana-mantenida-bajo-esclavitud-en-bosnia_11890061-4 ASIA- PACÍFICO/ MEDIO ORIENTECondena internacional por masacre en Siria.Para más información: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18245225http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/consejo-de-seguridad-de-la-onu-se-rene-por-masacre-en-siria_11890661-4 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/world/middleeast/syrian-activists-claim-death-toll-in-village-soars.html?ref=world&gwh=67B04E7912451E677DEE6773B7179BAC http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/28/internacional/_portada/noticias/604ED812-6034-469E-B16D-5F0436CD735F.htm?id={604ED812-6034-469E-B16D-5F0436CD735F} http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/conselho-de-seguranca-da-onu-condena-siria-por-massacre-5038570#ixzz1w7qOQ8YB http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/from-massacres-to-shortages-syria-under-pressure/?ref=world&gwh=65F95E3CDDE403D02C5EF1CA3B9FB77E http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-05/30/content_15418534.htm http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/05/27/2819716/syria-denies-responsibility-for.html http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/05/27/actualidad/1338118040_536355.html http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-syria-massacre-20120528,0,7172304.storyKofi Annan llega a Siria para reunirse con Bashar Al Asad.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/labor-de-kofi-annan-en-siria_11902983-4 http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/28/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=wo_c1 http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-05/30/content_15418697.htm http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2012/05/27/un-bombardement-de-l-otan-en-afghanistan-tue-8-civils_1708010_3216.html http://www.economist.com/node/21555954 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-syria-diplomacy-20120530,0,7401114.storyIrán construirá otra central nuclear pese a presión internacional.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/25/world/meast/iran-nuclear/index.html?hpt=wo_bn11 http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/28/internacional/internacional/noticias/5B3F3499-5FAF-42BB-A84C-7A6B72303A21.htm?id={5B3F3499-5FAF-42BB-A84C-7A6B72303A21} http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/ira-nao-ha-razao-para-parar-de-enriquecer-uranio-20-5038218#ixzz1w7qTLWur http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/28/world/middleeast/iran-wont-halt-production-of-higher-grade-uranium.html?hp&gwh=E2CBDB8DF857566C8E740DEBFE56BACF http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-05/30/content_15418626.htm http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2012/05/25/des-traces-d-uranium-enrichi-a-plus-de-20-decouvertes-en-iran_1707751_3218.html http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-nuclear-20120526,0,418614.story http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/irn-construir-otra-central-nuclear_11893162-4 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-nuclear-deal-20120523,0,962424.story Incidente en Afganistán: bombardeo de la OTAN mata a ocho civiles.Para más información: http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/oito-civis-morrem-em-ataque-aereo-da-otan-no-afeganistao-5035213#ixzz1w7qb0qol http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/28/internacional/internacional/noticias/1C353FD5-18DD-47E3-8634-E7B66E4080C2.htm?id={1C353FD5-18DD-47E3-8634-E7B66E4080C2} http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/05/27/actualidad/1338115272_791136.html http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/world/asia/drug-traffic-remains-as-us-nears-afghanistan-exit.html?hp&gwh=A033766A24E5EC848586C446126DEAB9 http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-05/30/content_15423180.htm]OTAN mata al número 2 de Al-Qaida en Afganistán.Para más información: http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/29/11931081-number-2-al-qaida-leader-in-afghanistan-killed-in-nato-airstrike?lite Suu Kyi sale de Birmania por primera vez en 24 años.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/850197.html http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18245929Horror en campos de trabajo en Corea del Norte.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/27/world/asia/north-korea-labor-camps-hancocks/index.html?hpt=wo_t3Fuego desata tragedia en centro comercial de Qatar.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/28/world/meast/qatar-fire/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/29/internacional/internacional/noticias/0103A387-1CEA-45C0-83AB-9861D652D75C.htm?id={0103A387-1CEA-45C0-83AB-9861D652D75C} http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18243136Ex Premier de Japón reconoce responsabilidad estatal por Fukushima. Para más información: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/world/asia/concerns-grow-about-spent-fuel-rods-at-damaged-nuclear-plant-in-japan.html?ref=world&gwh=0974E928305A7AA97DDC39A42499632A http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/29/internacional/_portada/noticias/C1E9801B-5164-4E03-8D86-0B4018172F42.htm?id={C1E9801B-5164-4E03-8D86-0B4018172F42} http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47592012/ns/us_news-environment/#.T8WMZ1LMqw4 http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/28/world/asia/japan-nuclear/index.html?hpt=wo_bn7Pakistán prueba alcance de sus misiles.Para más información: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-05/29/content_15416524.htmLa caída de Bo Xilai facilita el camino a los reformistas en ChinaPara más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/05/27/actualidad/1338128173_085638.html Dos tibetanos se inmolaron en las cercanías de un popular templo.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/28/world/asia/tibet-immolations-lhasa/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/28/11915646-protesters-set-themselves-on-fire-near-temple-popular-with-tourists-in-tibet-capital?liteChina y sus intentos por controlar internet.Para más información: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47596791/ns/world_news-asia_pacific/#.T8WMVFLMqw4 http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/28/world/asia/china-weibo-rules/index.html?hpt=wo_c2Activista de Bahrain, Al-Khawaja, culmina su helga de hambre.Para más información: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-18239695"The Economist" analiza la prosperidad de la economía china.Para más información: http://www.economist.com/node/21555762 Hija de Saddam busca editorial para publicar memorias póstumas. Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/29/internacional/internacional/noticias/CFF123E0-22A2-4F0C-AB58-92B7E6CBF863.htm?id={CFF123E0-22A2-4F0C-AB58-92B7E6CBF863} ÁFRICANace en el corazón de África el Estado islámico del Azawad.Para más información: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/world/africa/two-rebel-groups-in-mali-merge-to-form-islamic-state.html?ref=world&gwh=1CCB56E2C53E1879A0018658B454AB65 http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2012/05/27/la-rebellion-touareg-fusionne-avec-un-groupe-islamiste-au-nord-du-mali_1708003_3212.html http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/05/27/actualidad/1338080043_901876.html http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/27/world/africa/mali-rebel-groups/index.html?hpt=wo_bn10 Violencia tras conocerse oficialmente los resultados electorales en Egipto. Para más información: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt-elections-20120527,0,3534501.story http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/05/29/internacional/internacional/noticias/B84A3FF7-AF9D-4D9C-A221-C4D5300B5C97.htm?id={B84A3FF7-AF9D-4D9C-A221-C4D5300B5C97} http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/28/world/meast/egypt-election/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/africa/prenden-fuego-a-oficinas-de-candidato-a-la-presidencia-en-egipto_11900801-4 http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2012/05/egypts-presidential-election http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/world/middleeast/some-in-egypt-disdain-both-candidates.html?ref=world&gwh=DF70159F604EFCBA310372F56CA02562 http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2012/05/26/egypte-le-candidat-chafiq-promet-ne-pas-revenir-a-l-ere-moubarak_1707941_3212.htmlSiete años de prisión por corrupción para el jefe de Gabinete de MubarakPara más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/05/27/actualidad/1338147851_363736.htmlGrupo islámico Boko Haram genera terror en Nigeria. Para más información: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-nigeria-boko-haram-20120527,0,572578.storyExplosión en centro comercial en Nairobi-Kenia.Para más información: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18232621 http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/28/world/africa/kenya-explosion/index.html?hpt=wo_bn10 http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/05/nairobi-kenya-blast-called-bomb-attack.html http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-05/29/content_15408978.htmAgencia de Naciones Unidas propone a Mugabe como "líder para el turismo" .Para más información: http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/29/11940600-un-agency-appoints-mugabe-as-a-leader-for-tourism?lite OTRASONU rinde homenaje a 112 caídos en servicio en 2011.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/850190.html"The Economist" presenta su informe semanal: "Business this week".Para más información: http://www.economist.com/node/21555625

Den Kern der hier vorliegenden Arbeit bildet die Gliederung der Keramikfunde von drei Siedlungshügeln aus den Tonebenen (auch firki genannt) des südwestlichen Tschadbeckens Nordost- Nigerias. Obwohl das Gebiet in den 60er Jahren bereits archäologisch erschlossen wurde, waren die keramikchronologischen Aspekte nur oberflächlich abgehandelt worden. Ziel der Arbeit war somit die Erstellung einer grundlegenden Keramikchronologie anhand der sehr umfangreichen Fundmengen aus den Siedlungshügeln Kursakata, Mege und Ndufu. Ihre Stratigraphien erlaubten es, eine Keramikchronologie für die letzten 3000 Jahre zu erstellen. Das Gebiet der dem Tschadsee vorgelagerten firki-Tonebenen konnte erst ab 3000 BP besiedelt werden, wie die C14-Datierungen der Fundplätze bezeugen. Vorher war der auch als Chad Lagoonal Complex bezeichnete Raum von den Wassern des Mega-Tschadsees bedeckt. Diese sogenannte 3000- Jahresgrenze gilt aber nur für die firki-Region, denn in den westlich angrenzenden Sandebenen (Bama Deltaic Complex) war eine Besiedlung um 1000 Jahre früher möglich. Das Siedlungsmaterial der drei Hügel wurde mittels Veränderungen in der Keramik in Bezug auf Verzierung und Form sowie mehrerer C14-Daten in verschiedene Perioden gegliedert: Later Stone Age (1000-500 cal BC), Early Iron Age (500 cal BC-500 cal AD), Late Iron Age (500- 1600 cal AD), Historisch (16.-19 Jh. AD), Subrezent (19.-20. Jh. AD). Later Stone Age und Early Iron Age zeigen in der Keramikentwicklung eine Früh- und Spätphase. Den wichtigsten chronologischen Faktor bilden die Verzierungstechniken, denn vom Later Stone Age bis zur subrezenten Periode ist eine Abnahme von unverzierten Scherben im Verhältnis zu verzierten Scherben zu beobachten, d. h. größere Flächen wurden auf der Keramik verziert. Der Keramikhorizont von Ritz-, Stich- und Wiegebandtechnik im Later Stone Age wandelt sich über das Early Iron Age zu einem Matten- und Roulettehorizont schließlich zu einem Roulettehorizont im Late Iron Age. Den Entwicklungen in der Verzierung lassen sich Veränderungen bei den Gefäßformen gegenüberstellen, die sich von geschlossenen zu offenen Formen wandeln. Das Later Stone Age ist durch Kümpfe, dagegen das Early Iron Age durch Töpfe geprägt. Offene Schalen-Schüsseln bestimmen das Gefäßinventar ab dem Late Iron Age, aber auch verschiedene neue Gefäßtypen wie So-pots, Dreifußgefäße, Gefäße mit flachem Boden sowie solche mit langen konischem Rand treten jetzt in Erscheinung. Die zunehmende Bedeutung der Verzierungstechniken Matte und Roulette in den Fundplätzen spiegelt sich in ihrer Variationsbreite wider. Einzelne Matten- und Roulettetypen nehmen die Stellung von Leitformen ein. Im Later Stone Age sind nur Randparallele/Diagonale Geflechte und kombinierte Roulettes (cord wrapped stick roulette) vorhanden. Ab dem Early Iron Age wird das Formenspektrum erweitert. Zwirnbindige Geflechte und gezwirnte Schnurroulettes (twisted string roulette) bilden die charakteristischen Arten in der Frühphase des Early Iron Age, aber ab der Spätphase des Early Iron Age gewinnen die kombinierten Roulettes (cord-wrapped stick with spacing roulette) wieder an Bedeutung. Danach treten nur noch Roulettearten neu hinzu. Im Late Iron Age ist es das Schnitzroulette (carved roulette) und gegen Ende des Late Iron Age, aber vor allem ab der historischen Periode das gezwirnte Bandroulette (twisted strip roulette). Anders als bei den Roulettetechniken ist das Vorkommen von Matten an bestimmte Herstellungstechniken von Gefäßen gebunden, vorausgesetzt die Matten wurden nicht nach der Herstellung in die Oberfläche des Gefäßes eingeklopft. Ihr flächendeckender oder auf das Gefäßunterteil beschränkter Auftrag auf der Keramik der untersuchten Fundplätzen deutet auf die Anwendung von Treibtechnik zur Herstellung der Gefäße hin. Die begrenzte Handhabung der Matten und ihre primär technische Bedeutung (Oberflächenbehandlung) spielten vermutlich eine Rolle bei ihrer Verdrängung durch die Roulettetechnik. Insgesamt zeigt die chronologische Entwicklung der Keramik, daß die Tonebenen ohne längere Unterbrechung kontinuierlich besiedelt waren. Der Übergang von einer Periode zur nächsten ist zwar durch Veränderungen im Keramikmaterial gekennzeichnet, es werden aber immer auch verschiedene Merkmale aus der vorangegangenen Periode übernommen. Am markantesten stellt sich der Übergang vom Later Stone Age zum Early Iron Age dar. Hier finden Entwicklungen in der Keramik statt, die heute noch ihren Niederschlag (Roulettetechnik) finden. Die politischen Veränderungen im Gebiet der firki zu Beginn der sogenannten historischen Periode (Integration in das Kanem-Bornu-Reich) fallen keramiktypologisch betrachtet weniger ins Gewicht, d. h. die bestehende Keramiktradition wurde nicht vollständig durch eine andere ersetzt. Das Keramikmaterial aus den firki-Tonebenen Nordost-Nigerias zeigt, wie zu erwarten, die größten Übereinstimmungen zu dem anderer Fundplätze aus den Tonebenen der heute angrenzenden Staaten Kamerun und Tschad. Mit den Fundinventaren aus der südlich angrenzenden Mandara-Region in Kamerun und Nigeria haben unsere Keramikinventare die Entwicklung zu vorwiegend Rouletteverzierter Keramik (genauer gesagt Schnurroulette) in der Eisenzeit gemeinsam. In der nördlichen Mandara-Region scheint die Keramikentwicklung allerdings statischer verlaufen zu sein, da hier die markanten Veränderungen aus der firki während der Eisenzeit fehlen. Dennoch läßt das Keramikmaterial auf Beziehungen zwischen beiden Regionen schließen, die nach der Fundlage im Handel von Steinen und vermutlich auch Eisenerzen und Metallobjekten bestanden. Ebenso ist die politische Entwicklung in den Tonebenen (Integration in das Kanem-Bornu Reich) eng mit der in der nördlichen Mandara-Region (Bildung des Wandala-Reiches) verknüpft, was sich auch im Keramikmaterial widerspiegelt. Dagegen offenbaren die Fundstellen des östlichen Tschadbeckens in der Republik Tschad gänzlich andere Keramiktraditionen. Typische Keramikelemente aus der firki treten dort erst später oder gar nicht auf. Die Integration der firki Nordost-Nigerias in das Kanem-Bornu-Reich stellt sich als eine Verbreitung bestimmter Keramikelemente (twisted strip roulette, Sgraffito) westlich des Tschadsees (Yobe Valley) weiter nach Süden dar, wobei diese Keramikmerkmale von der autochthonen Bevölkerung westlich des Tschadsees schon vor der Ankunft der Kanuri verwendet wurden. Dies bedeutet, daß die Kanuri die Keramikmerkmale entweder von der einheimischen Bevölkerung übernommen haben oder schon vorher ein kultureller Austausch zwischen dem Yobe Valley und Kanem bestand. Die firki-Region war im Laufe ihrer Besiedlung verschiedenen Einflüssen anderer Regionen ausgesetzt. So müssen die ersten Siedler von außerhalb in das Gebiet eingewandert sein, da es längere Zeit für eine Besiedlung unzugänglich war. Weder die westlich angrenzenden Sandflächen noch die südlich angrenzenden Ebenen der Mandara-Region oder der östliche Teil des Tschadbeckens kommen derzeit dafür in Frage. Die Wirtschaftsweise der ersten Siedler deutet in nördliche Richtung, denn sie brachten domestizierte Rinder, Schafe, Ziegen und die Kenntnis vom Anbau domestizierter Perlhirse (Pennisetum glaucum) mit. Ihre Keramik steht in der Tradition des saharischen und sudanesischen Endneolithikums, was sich aus zonal begrenzten Verzierungen und der häufigen Verwendung von Ritztechnik und Spatelstich ableiten läßt. Die für das Later Stone Age in der firki typische Rouletteund Mattentechnik wurde in der Sahara/Sahel entwickelt. Ob die ersten Siedler nun aus östlicher oder westlicher Richtung kamen, läßt sich nicht definitiv sagen. Allerdings ist eine westliche Richtung durch die dort nachgewiesene Verwendung von Matten in Köperbindung und der eines kombinierten Roulette (cord-wrapped stick with spacing roulette) zu favorisieren. Der Übergang zum Early Iron Age in der firki ist mit neuen Einflüssen aus der südwestlichen Sahara und dem angrenzenden Sahel verbunden. Dies geht aus der Verwendung von twisted string roulette und zwirnbindiger Geflechte hervor. Auch wirtschaftlich hat mit Beginn des Early Iron Age ein Wandel stattgefunden, denn zu diesem Zeitpunkt setzt ein großflächiger Anbau von Perlhirse (Pennisetum glaucum) ein. Erst jetzt kann man von einer vollentwickelten seßhaften Lebensweise in der firki sprechen. Archäobotanische und archäozoologische Untersuchungen bezeugen einen Umschwung zu arideren klimatischen Bedingungen am Übergang vom Later Stone Age zum Early Iron Age, der die wirtschaftlichen Veränderungen nach sich gezogen haben könnte. Die grundlegenden Veränderungen in der Keramik unterstützen diese Hypothese, denn sie spiegeln vielleicht dieselbe Entwicklung nur auf anderer Ebene wider. Der Einfluß von Keramiktechniken aus dem Nordwesten läßt Bevölkerungsverschiebungen aus dem trockenen Norden in die von Wasservorkommen begünstigten firki-Tonebenen vermuten. Ein Einfluß aus anderer Richtung zeigt sich für das Late Iron Age. So hat sich wahrscheinlich die Technik des carved roulette im Savannenraum von Nigeria, Kamerun und der Zentralafrikanischen Republik entwickelt und weiter ausgebreitet. Für die historische Periode und den mit ihr in Zusammenhang stehenden politischen Veränderungen wurde schon auf Einflüsse aus dem westlichen Tschadbecken (Yobe Valley) Nordost-Nigerias hingewiesen. Dennoch muß die Bevölkerung in den Tonebenen nicht erst mit der Ausbreitung der Kanuri am Ende des 16. Jh. AD mit der Verwendung von twisted strip roulette in Berührung gekommen sein, wie Funde aus dem Late Iron Age zeigen. Diese Technik ist typisch für die Eisenzeit in Mali, sie wurde aber auch im 1. Jt. AD in der nördlichen Mandara-Region vereinzelt verwendet. Die Verbreitung der Roulette- und Mattentechniken ist für die Rekonstruktion von Beziehungen zu anderen Regionen ausschlaggebend. Am Keramikmaterial von Kursakata, Mege und Ndufu läßt sich sehr gut beobachten, daß verschiedene Roulette- und Mattentechniken hier zeitlich versetzt voneinander im Later Stone Age und Early Iron Age in Gebrauch kommen, die weiter nördlich schon im Later Stone Age bekannt waren und gemeinsam verwendet wurden. Die Bedeutung von twisted string roulette als Indikator für das Early Iron Age teilen sich die Fundplätze aus der firki mit anderen Fundplätzen aus dem Savannenraum. In der firki stehen Schnurroulettes und zwirnbindige Geflechte als Synonym für Eisen und seßhafte Lebensweise. Mit der hier vorliegenden Arbeit ist zum ersten Mal eine grundlegende Keramikchronologie für die firki-Tonebenen Nordost-Nigerias erstellt worden. Die verschiedenen Verzierungstechniken und auch die bislang wenig berücksichtigten Gefäßformen wurden näher bestimmt. Weiterhin ermöglichten es die Analysen, das Fundmaterial anderer Plätze besser zu beurteilen bzw. eine fundiertere Grundlage für Vergleiche zu bilden, d. h. es wurde ein detaillierter und kritischer Vergleich mit allen wichtigen Fundplätzen aus dem südlichen Tschadbecken vorgenommen. Darüber hinaus wurden die für die Keramikchronologie wichtigen Roulette- und Mattentechniken dokumentiert und anhand ihrer technischen Merkmale definiert. Eine zusammenfassende Darstellung zur Verbreitung der Rouletteund Mattentechniken in Afrika erlaubte es, ihre Vorkommen in Nordost-Nigeria in einen größeren vorgeschichtlichen Zusammenhang zu sehen. Somit bietet die hier vorliegende Arbeit genügend Grundlagen, auf die nachfolgende Forschungen aufbauen können. Für das östliche Tschadbecken und die nördliche Mandara Region steht bislang eine solche Keramikchronologie noch aus. ; The central part of this dissertation describes the classification of pottery from excavated sites in the clay plains, called firki, of the southwestern Chad Basin in Northeast Nigeria. Although archaeological research in this area already took place in the 1960's, the different chronological aspects of pottery have been treated only superficially. Therefore the objective of this work has been the development of a fundamental chronology on the basis of the large amount of pottery material from the settlement mounds Kursakata, Mege and Ndufu. Their stratigraphies comprise the last 3000 years. C14 dates of the archaeological sites confirm that the firki clay plains south of Lake Chad were settled around 3000 BP. Before that time this area - also known as the Chad Lagoonal Complex - was flooded by the Mega Lake Chad, which had its maximum extension during the middle Holocene. After its regression, due to increasing dryness between 1500-800 BC, the area could be settled again on relict islands of sand dunes, which interrupt the clay soils and protect the people from flooding in the rainy season. Continuous occupation led to the accumulation of stratified deposits and finally to the development of settlement mounds. However the 3000 year limit for reoccupation is only valid for the firki since the adjacent sand plains of the Bama Deltaic Complex were settled 1000 years earlier. The settlement remains of the mounds Kursakata, Mege and Ndufu, all located near to the village of Ngala, can be subdivided into different phases by changes in the ceramic material and dated by several C14 dates: Later Stone Age (1000-500 cal BC), Early Iron Age (500 cal BC-500 cal AD), Late Iron Age (500- 1600 cal AD), Historic phase (16th-19th century AD), sub-recent phase (19th-20th century AD). Furthermore the pottery of the Later Stone Age and Early Iron Age show an early and late sub-phase. Changes in the decoration techniques are the most important chronological factor during the single phases. A tendency towards more complete surface decoration becomes obvious as the percentages of undecorated potsherds are highest in the Late Iron Age but gradually decrease from the Iron Age onwards. The typical decoration techniques of the Late Stone Age are incision, impression and rocker stamping, changing to a mainly mat and roulette decorated pottery horizon in the Early Iron Age, and finally to an almost nearly roulette decorated one in the Late Iron Age. Both techniques (mat and roulette) cover a greater part of the vessel than the incised, impressed and rocker stamped motifs arranged in single or multiple, horizontal bands. Changes of pottery decoration go along with changes in vessel forms. They show a development from more restricted to more open forms. The Later Stone Age is characterised by deep bowls with simple and vertical rims whereas the Early Iron Age by nearly globular vessels with everted rims. Open bowls with simple and everted rims dominate the vessel types from the Late Iron Age onwards but different new forms like So pots, tripods, flat bottomed types and pots with long conical rims enrich the spectrum of vessel forms. The increasing importance of mat and roulette decoration techniques in the sites is reflected in their variety of types. Some of the types take up the position of key forms for the single phases. During the Later Stone Age only plaited basketry and the composite roulette type cord-wrapped stick were used. In the Early Iron Age different new roulette and mat techniques became common. Twined basketry and flexible string roulettes, especially twisted string roulette, form the dominant types in the early sub-phase, but in the late sub-phase of the Early Iron Age the composite roulette cord-wrapped stick with spacing gain in importance. After this period only new roulette types appear: for the Late Iron Age it is the rigid roulette type carved roulette and mostly for the historic and sub-recent period (but in small quantities already for the Late Iron Age) it is the flexible strip roulette type twisted strip roulette. In contrast to the roulette techniques the use of mat decoration depends on special pottery manufacturing techniques, provided the mat has not been applied to the vessel after its manufacture. The placement of mat impression to the lower part or all over the vessel in the sites indicates the use of the tamping manufacturing technique. In all probability the limited handling of mats and their prior technical function (surface treatment) led to their replacement by roulette techniques in the Iron Age. As a whole, the chronological development of pottery demonstrate, the firki clay plains have been continuously settled without long interruptions of occupation. Although the transition from one phase to the other is marked by changes in the ceramic material, different pottery features are always taken over from the foregoing one. However the transition from the Later Stone Age to the Early Iron Age is most striking and the occurring changes in the pottery material can still be recognised today in the use of roulette techniques. This is opposite to the integration of the firki plains into the Kanem-Borno Empire at the historic phase, where the existing pottery tradition was not replaced by another one, as seen in the pottery typology. The pottery material of the firki clay plains in Northeast Nigeria show the greatest correspondence to other settlement mounds in the firki which extends to Northern Cameroon and westcentral Chad. With the inventory of finds from the southerly adjacent Mandara plains in Cameroon and Nigeria the archaeological sites of the firki clay plains share the development to almost only roulette decorated pottery (strictly speaking string roulette) in the Iron Age. But in the northern Mandara region the changes in the pottery seem to proceed more statically because the obvious changes in the firki during the Iron Age are missing here. Nevertheless the typological correspondence in the pottery material points to a cultural relationship between the two regions, which, according to the archaeological finds, have existed in the exchange of stone raw material and presumably also of iron ore and iron artefacts. The political changes in the firki clay plains (integration into the Kanem-Borno Empire) are closely connected to the political changes in the northern Mandara region (formation of the Wandala Empire). These changes are reflected in the pottery material. On the other hand the archaeological sites in the eastern Chad basin of the Republic of Chad reveal a complete different pottery tradition. Typical pottery elements from the firki sites occur much later or have not been found. The integration of the firki plains into the Kanem-Borno empire at the end of the 16th century AD is represented in the pottery material by the distribution of certain pottery elements (twisted strip roulette, sgraffito) from the Yobe valley west of Lake Chad to the south. As these pottery elements had been used there prior to the arrival of the Kanuri in the Yobe valley it means either the Kanuri had taken over the elements from the indigenous population or cultural exchange between the Yobe valley and Kanem must have formerly existed. During its long settlement history the firki plains have been exposed to different influences from other regions. People who first settled south of Lake Chad must have come from outside this region because it was flooded until 3000 BP. Currently neither the sand plains of the Bama Deltaic Complex to the west nor the plains of the Mandara region to the south or the eastern Chad Basin can be considered as their homeland. The economy of the first settlers points to a migration from the north as they brought domesticated cattle, sheep and goat as well as the knowledge of pearl millet cultivation (Pennisetum glaucum) with them. Their pottery stands in the tradition of the Saharan and Sudanese Late Neolithic shown by zonal arrangements of motifs and the frequent use of incision and spatula impression. Furthermore the typical roulette and mat techniques of the Later Stone Age in the firki had been developed in the Sahara/Sahel. It cannot be said for sure if the first settlers migrated into this area from the west or the east. But the west seems to be more likely for two different reason: the proved use of plaited basketry decorated pottery and the use of a cord-wrapped stick (with spacing) as a roulette. With the beginning of the Early Iron Age new influences from the southwestern part of the Sahara and the adjacent Sahel has to be taken into account. Twisted string roulette and twined basketry had already been invented there in neolithic times but remained unknown in the eastern part until the first millennium AD. The transition to the Early Iron Age is also marked by notable changes in the economy of the inhabitants. Large amounts of pearl millet in the deposits of the sites demonstrate a sudden beginning of large scale farming. From this time a fully developed permanent settlement way of life had been established in the clay plains. Archaeobotanical and archaeozoological investigation suggest also a shift to a more arid climatic condition during the transition of the Later Stone Age to the Early Iron Age in the firki, which may have led to the intensification of pearl millet farming in the economy of their inhabitants. The fundamental changes in the pottery material support this hypothesis as they probably reflect the same development only on a different level. Together with the appearance of new pottery techniques from the northwest in the firki it can be suggested aridity forced people from further north to go south and to settle in the well watered firki plains. In the Late Iron Age the sphere of influence had changed because the use of carved roulete seems to have been developed in the savannah region of Nigeria, Cameroon and the Central African Republic. A shift of pottery elements from the Yobe valley west of Lake Chad to the firki in the south has been suggested for the historic phase due to the political changes which took place. Because finds of twisted strip roulette already occur in the Late Iron Age the inhabitants of the clay plains may have known the technique before the spread of the power of the Kanuri at the end of the 16th century AD. The use of twisted strip roulette is not restricted to Nigeria or a special ethnic group. This technique is typical for the Iron Age in Mali and is also used in small quantities in the northern Mandara region at the first millennium AD. As we have seen, it is the spread of the roulette and mat techniques which is important for the reconstruction of the relation of the firki plains to its surrounding area. From the ceramic material of Kursakata, Mege and Ndufu it can be clearly observed that individual, separate roulette and mat techniques appear shifted in time in the Later Stone Age and Early Iron Age. These techniques are known to have been used together at several sites further to the north in the Later Stone Age. With other sites of the West African savannah the archaeological sites of the firki plains share the importance of twisted string roulette as an indicator for the Early Iron Age. In the firki the twisted string roulette and twined basketry decorations can be seen as synonyms for iron and a permanent settlement way of life. In this dissertation for the first time a fundamental pottery chronology has been developed for the firki clay plains south of Lake Chad in Northeast Nigeria. Different decoration techniques and the so far less considered vessel forms have been defined. A detailed and critical comparison with all the important archaeological sites of the southwestern Chad Basin has been carried out and, in addition, all the existing roulette and mat types have been documented and classified under technical aspects. Besides the pottery analyses made it possible to interpret the pottery material of earlier excavated sites in the firki in a better way. With a summarised outline of the spread of roulette and mat techniques over Africa, their appearance in Northeast Nigeria could be placed in a greater prehistoric context. Thus the dissertation offers a good fundament for further investigations. A comparable pottery chronology for the eastern Chad Basin and the northern Mandara region is still lacking.

Trotz des erheblichen Ausmaßes der Bodenerosion in vielen Entwicklungsländern ist bislang weitgehend unklar, welches ihre wesentlichen anthropogenen Ursachen sind, und damit auch, wo Politiken und Maßnahmen für den Erhalt der Nahrungs- und Produktionsressource Boden ansetzen sollten. Jenseits unmittelbarer natürlicher und landnutzerischer Ursachen stehen heute sozioökonomische Faktoren im Mittelpunkt der Diskussion, von denen angenommen wird, daß sie die Anbau- und Bodenschutzentscheidungen der Landnutzer und darüber das Ausmaß an Bodenerosion beeinflussen, insbesondere: (i) verstärkte Armut, (ii) zunehmender Bevölkerungsdruck, (iii) verzerrte Agrarpreise, (iv) unangepaßter technischer Fortschritt sowie (v) unsichere Landbesitzverhältnisse. Der Bedeutung dieser Bestimmungsfaktoren wird vorwiegend im Rahmen produktionsökonomischer Ansätze und der Theorie der Induzierten Innovation nachgegangen. Allerdings wird die Wirkung einzelner Ursachen in der Literatur sehr unterschiedlich eingeschätzt. So wird beispielsweise in eher optimistischen Szenarien davon ausgegangen, daß Armuts- und Bevölkerungsdruck langfristig zur Entwicklung und Verbreitung bodenschonender Innovationen führen. In negativen Szenarien überwiegen hingegen Stimmen, die gerade in diesem Druck bei gleichzeitigem Preisdruck die wesentlichen Ursachen für die kurzsichtige Übernutzung des Bodens sehen. Empirische Studien zur Fundierung der kontrovers diskutierten Hypothesen liegen bislang nur für einen jeweils begrenzten lokalen Kontext vor und sind kaum verallgemeinerbar. Vor diesem Hintergrund bieten die Daten der ersten weltweiten Erhebung zum Stand der Bodenerosion (GLASOD, UNEP/ISRIC, 1991) nunmehr die Möglichkeit, sozioökonomische und landnutzerische Determinanten der Bodenerosion auf überregionaler Ebene empirisch zu untersuchen. Anhand der Aggregation und Analyse der im GLASOD enthaltenen Informationen wird zunächst deutlich, daß Afrika und Südostasien flächenmäßig mit jeweils rd. 4,5 Mio km2 am meisten zur Degradation durch Bodenerosion und Nährstoffverluste[1] in Entwicklungsländern beitragen, während der Anteil erodierter Fläche an der jeweiligen Gesamtfläche des Subkontinents[2] in Südwestasien (37%), Mittelamerika und Südostasien (jeweils rd. 25%) am höchsten ist. Extrem stark erodierte Länder finden sich v.a. in Mittelamerika und Afrika: In El Salvador, Haiti und Costa Rica sind zwischen 60% und 90% der jeweiligen Landesfläche betroffen. In Afrika sind vor allem die nord- und westafrikanischen Sahelländer Tunesien, Mauretanien, Libyen, Niger, Burkina Faso und Mali, im Osten die Hochlandstaaten Burundi und Rwanda sowie schließlich die Kapverdischen Inseln, besonders stark erodiert (40% bis 80% der Landesfläche). Wassererosion hat den größten Anteil an der Erosionsfläche, in Mittelamerika und Südostasien sind sogar mehr als 70% der erodierten Fläche von Wassererosion betroffen. Für die empirische Analyse der Zusammenhänge zwischen Bodenerosion und möglichen Bestimmungsfaktoren wird ein exploratives, ökonometrisches Vorgehen auf Grundlage nationaler Daten gewählt[3]. Die spezifische Aufeinanderfolge verschiedener Korrelations-, Faktoren- und Regressionsanalysen wird der großen Anzahl in Frage kommender Indikatorvariablen für mögliche Erosionsdeterminanten sowie den zu erwartenden Problemen der Multikollinearität und Modellspezifizierung in besonderem Maße gerecht. Letztere ergeben sich einerseits aus anzunehmenden Abhängikeiten unter verschiedenen Erosionsdeterminanten. Andererseits macht der latente Charakter[4], den die aus einem mikroökonomischen Kontext abgeleiteten Erosionsursachen auf aggregierter Ebene haben, es notwendig, für jede der angenommenen Determinanten verschiedene, u.U. korrelierte Indikatorvariablen zu definieren, was zusätzlich Kollinearität bedingt. Für Bodenerosion werden auf der Basis der national aggregierten GLASOD-Daten verschiedene Erosionsindizes definiert, die prinzipiell den von Wasser- und Winderosion sowie durch Nährstoffverluste betroffenen Anteil der nutzbaren Landesfläche wiedergeben. Die Datengrundlage für mögliche Erosionsdeterminanten wird ausgehend von Datensammlungen internationaler Organisationen für den Zeitraum 1961-1990 zusammengestellt. Für eine große Anzahl der in der Literatur diskutierten sozioökonomischen, landnutzerischen und auch natürlichen Rahmenbedingungen können repräsentative Indikatorvariablen definiert werden. Mangels geeigneter Indikatoren und Daten bleiben allerdings die Art und Sicherheit der Landbesitzverhältnisse unberücksichtigt. Insgesamt umfaßt die Datengrundlage rund 150 Variablen. Die Ergebnisse der Einfachkorrelationsanalysen zwischen den Erosionsindizes und möglichen Determinanten dienen einer ersten Einschätzung der Zusammenhänge. Sie zeigen, daß länderübergreifend insbesondere Variablen des Bevölkerungsdrucks sowie der durchschnittliche Waldanteil mit dem Ausmaß Bodenerosion in Zusammenhang stehen. Die Abholzungsraten in den 80er Jahren sind vor allem mit dem Ausmaß der Wassererosion korreliert. Bei Betrachtung der Länder mittleren Klimas[5] können Zusammenhänge mit Variablen nachgewiesen werden, die die Landnutzungsintensität und die Ausdehnung der tatsächlichen Nutzfläche in Relation zur potentiellen Nutzfläche wiedergeben. Weiterhin stehen in der mittleren Klimazone tendenziell sinkende Produzentenpreise für Agrarprodukte in Zusammenhang mit dem Ausmaß der Erosion. Erwartungsgemäß ist die Bedeutung natürlicher Faktoren für einzelne Erosionsformen und Klimazonen charakteristisch. Insgesamt scheinen Variablen, die das Ergebnis einer vermutlich längerfristigen Entwicklung wiedergeben, mehr Bedeutung für das Ausmaß der Erosion zu haben als solche, die Veränderungen im Referenzzeitraum 1961-1990 erfassen. Anhand verschiedener Faktorenanalysen für 62 Variablen und 73 Länder mit annähernd vollständigen Datensätzen können sodann strukturelle Zusammenhänge unter der Vielzahl möglicherweise relevanter Erosionsdeterminanten aufgedeckt und die Variablenanzahl auf Grundlage dieser Zusammenhänge auf eine geringere Anzahl weitgehend voneinander unabhängiger Größen reduziert werden. Es zeigt sich, daß die Struktur der Variablen durch etwa zehn gut interpretierbare Faktoren bei rd. 75% erklärter Gesamtvarianz klar wiedergegeben werden kann, und daß diese Faktoren auch bei Variation der Ausgangsvariablen sowie der Faktorextraktions- und Rotationsmethode stabil bleiben. Bemerkenswert ist, daß viele der Faktoren einen deutlichen Bezug zu den in der Literatur diskutierten Wirkungsketten unter möglichen Erosionsdeterminanten haben. So werden in dem für die Erklärung der Gesamtvarianz wichtigsten Faktor Variablen gebündelt, die die langfristige Intensivierung der Landnutzung im Zusammenhang mit strukturellem Bevölkerungsdruck und begrenzter Verfügbarkeit landwirtschaftlich nutzbarer Flächen erfassen. Weitere wichtige Faktoren beziehen sich auf strukturelle Armut in Verbindung mit erhöhtem ländlichen Bevölkerungswachstum; auf die mit Bevölkerungsdruck einhergehende langfristige wie auch rezente Expansion der landwirtschaftlichen Nutzfläche und Abholzung von Naturwald; auf Entwicklungswege, die eher auf die Produktion hochwertiger Produkte statt auf eine Flächenexpansion abzielen. Für die Preisentwicklung im Referenzzeitraum kann anhand einer Faktorenanalyse mit reduzierter Länderanzahl[6] gezeigt werden, daß ein Zusammenhang zwischen langfristig geringen oder negativen Preiszuwächsen im Agrarsektor und dem Faktor "Rezente Abholzungsraten" besteht. Um die relative Bedeutung dieser Faktoren für Bodenerosion zu quantifizieren, werden schrittweise Regressionsanalysen mit Bodenerosion als abhängiger Variablen und ausgewählten Repräsentantenvariablen für jeden Faktor als angenommenen unabhängigen Variablen durchgeführt[7]. Es lassen sich drei besonders relevante anthropogene Entwicklungen identifizieren, anhand derer das Erosionsausmaß bis zu rund 75% erklärt werden kann: (1) die langfristige, historische Ausdehnung der landwirtschaftlichen Nutzfläche auf Kosten des Waldbestandes in Zusammenhang mit einem Gesamtbevölkerungsdruck, der gegen Ende der 80er Jahre die agrar-ökologische Tragfähigkeit überschreitet; (2) die rezente Abholzung von Naturwald, die in Zusammenhang mit dem Wachstum der Gesamtbevölkerung zu sehen ist. Hier scheinen weniger der Druck der Agrarbevölkerung und die Ausdehnung der landwirtschaftlichen Nutzfläche - also die Produktionsseite - im Vordergrund zu stehen, als vielmehr der Druck der Nachfrageseite, in Kombination mit einem tendenziell sinkenden Agrarpreisniveau, das den Expansionsdruck auf das Land verstärkt hat. (3) Die langfristige, bevölkerungsdruckinduzierte Intensivierung der Agrarproduktion, vor allem durch Umwandlung von Dauergrünland in Ackerland, verkürzte Brachezeiten und erhöhte Viehbesatzdichten. Ein weiteres Ergebnis ist, daß in keinem Fall ein wesentlicher Einfluß von Armut auf das landesweite Ausmaß der Bodenerosion nachgewiesen werden kann - wie bereits die Ergebnisse der Einfachkorrelationsanalysen für immerhin 15 verschiedene Armutsindikatoren vermuten lassen. Es bestehen Unterschiede in den Erklärungsmustern für verschiedene Erosionsformen und Klimazonen. Die rezenten Abholzungsraten haben für Wassererosion, insbesondere in Ländern der extrem humiden Klimazone, herausragende Bedeutung. Zusätzlich zu den Faktoren (1) und (2) ist die Intensität der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion (3) vor allem für Wassererosion und in Ländern der mittleren Klimazone von Bedeutung. Hier ist auch die negative Wirkung einer sinkenden Agrarpreisentwicklung am stärksten. Gleichzeitig gilt hier: je eher der eingeschlagene Entwicklungsweg auf die Produktion hochwertiger Produkte im Gegesatz zur reinen Flächenexpansion abzielt, desto geringer ist das Erosionsausmaß. Für das Ausmaß der Winderosion und der Degradation durch Nährstoffverluste hingegen sind insbesondere die agroklimatischen Bedingungen ausschlaggebend. Die als erosionsrelevant identifizierten anthropogenen Rahmenbedingungen sind mit zentralen theoretischen Hypothesen konsistent. Fraglos gehören sie eher zu den Größen, deren kurzfristige Beeinflussung durch politische Maßnahmen schwierig ist. Dennoch können folgende Ansätze für eine Schwerpunktsetzung bei der Gestaltung von Politikmaßnahmen zur wirksamen Erosionsverminderung abgeleitet werden: Die Reduktion des Bevölkerungsdrucks durch eine an die natürlichen Bedingungen und relativen Faktorknappheiten angepaßte Erhöhung des Produktionspotentials, gerade auch in Regionen mit relativ niedrigem Potential. Eine stärkere Fokussierung auf Forstpolitiken bzw. auf eine Regulierung der kommerziellen Nutzung von Wäldern, vor allem in humiden Klimazonen. .Eine selektive, langfristig angelegte Verbesserung der incentive-Struktur für bodenschonende Produkte und Anbaumethoden über wirtschaftspolitische Eingriffe sowie durch verbesserte institutionelle und rechtliche Rahmenbedingungen. Von Politiken zur Armutsbekämpfung ist hingegen nicht zu erwarten, daß sie maßgebliche Impulse zur Verminderung der Bodenerosion geben können. Es muß jedoch immer präsent bleiben, daß arme Landnutzer sicherlich am stärksten und häufig existentiell von Erosionsschäden betroffen sind. Die Qualität zukünftiger Forschungsbemühungen auf globaler Ebene wird vor allem von der zukünftigen Datenverfügbarkeit und -qualität bestimmt: Für den Stand der Bodenerosion sind Informationen für verschiedene Zeitpunkte erforderlich; für anthropogene Erosionsdeterminanten eröffnen georeferenzierte Daten der Forschung gänzlich neue Perspektiven. Parallel zu überregionalen Analysen sind weitere lokale, sub-nationale Studien unbedingt notwendig, um umfassend zu ergründen, warum und welche Landnutzer die Ressource Boden in einem konkreten sozioökonomischen Kontext degradieren. Fußnoten: [1]Neben der Wasser- und Winderosion wird eine weitere Degradationsform, der Verlust von Nährstoffen und organischer Substanz, mitberücksichtigt und vereinfachend mit "Nährstoffverluste" bezeichnet.[2]Gemeint ist die nutzbare Landesfläche, Ödland ausgenommen. [3]Georeferenzierte Daten liegen derzeit für sozioökonomische Erosionsdeterminanten noch nicht vor.[4]D.h. Größen, von denen a priori nicht bekannt ist, wie sie beobachtet und gemessen werden können. [5]Dies sind Länder, in denen weder extrem aride noch extrem humide Bedingungen vorherrschen. [6]Für die entsprechende Variable liegen nur Daten für 56 Länder vor.[7]Umgekehrte Wirkungen der Erosion auf die als unabhängig angenommenen anthropogenen Variablen sind im Betrachtungszeitraum - bis auf die Armutswirkung starker Erosion - unwahrscheinlich. ; By the end of this century, soil erosion has reached an alarming extent in many developing countries. Still, uncertainty prevails regarding the human-induced causes of soil erosion. In consequence, many efforts to design efficient anti-erosion policies and instruments remain erratic. The actual discussion about human-induced causes of soil erosion focusses on socioeconomic factors that assumably influence the land users´ decisions on agricultural production and soil protection, and, hence, the degree of soil erosion. The most frequently discussed factors are: (i) poverty, (ii) population pressure, (iii) biased agricultural prices, (iv) the introduction of inadequate technical innovations and (iv) insecurity of land tenure. They are basically deduced from and discussed on base of production theory and the theory of induced innovation. Nevertheless, the different views on the importance to be assigned to the single factors are quite controverse. For example, in a rather optimistic scenario, it is argued that poverty and population pressure lead to the development of soil-conserving innovations in the long run. On the other side, poverty and population pressure, in combination with falling agricultural prices, are assumed to lead to a short-termist overuse of the soil. Empirical evidence that supports some of the controverse hypotheses on the causes of soil erosion is restricted to local studies based on local data on soil erosion, their results can hardly be generalized. In this context, the spatial data compiled within the global assessment of human-induced soil degradation (GLASOD; UNEP/ISRIC, 1991) for the first time permits a large-scale empirical analysis of socioeconomic and landuse factors relevant to erosion. By aggregating the information of the GLASOD data, countries and regions whith marked soil erosion can be identified. While Africa and Asia most contribute to the extent of soil erosion and the loss of nutrients[8] in absolute terms (4,5 mio sqkm each), it is in Southwest Asia (37%), Central America and Southeast Asia (25% each), where the proportion of of the land area - excluding wastelands - that is affected reaches the highest levels. Looked at on a national level, countries with an extreme extent of soil erosion are to be found in Central America and Africa: In El Salvador, Haiti and Costa Rica, 60 to 90 percent of the land area[9] are affected. In Africa, Sahelian Countries as Tunesia, Mauretania, Libya, Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, as well as the eastafrican highlands of Burundi and Rwanda, and also Cape Verde show the highest proportions of eroded land area2 (40 to 80 %). Water erosion is the most widespread type of erosion, in Central America and Southeast Asia it even contributes with about 70% to the area affected by erosion and the loss of nutrients1. The methodological approach chosen for the empirical analysis of human-induced causes of soil erosion is an explorative, econometric one, based on national cross-country data[10]. A specific combination of correlation analyses, factor analysis, and regression analysis is designed, that can handle the great number of possible indicators for the assumed causes of erosion, and cope with related problems of multicollinearity and model specification. Those problems result from supposed interrelationships among different human-induced causes of soil erosion. At the same time, many of the causes of erosion have a latent character when considered on a national level[11], since they are deduced from a microeconomic context. This makes it necessary to define various indicator variables for each of them, which, again, implies additional multicollinearity. On the basis of the aggregated GLASOD data, a set of operational variables for soil erosion is defined. They basically indicate the proportion of a country´s degradable land area (i.e. land area minus wastelands) that is eroded through wind, water, or degraded by the loss of nutrients and organic matter by the end of the 80´s. In turn, the database for possible determinants of erosion is compiled departing from standard international data sets for the time span 1961-1990. Representative indicators can be defined for many of the causative factors discussed in literature, as well for socioeconomic ones, as for landuse, and also for natural factors. They are adapted in a way that they not only best fit and capture the hypothesized determinants, but also the ecological and timely dimension of the analysis. One important field that is not covered is land tenure. The resulting database comprises about 150 variables for possible causative factors, with a varying number of country-data available. The results of correlation analyses between the indicator variables for soil erosion and for possible causative factors facilitate a first assesion of relevant relationships. They show, that variables that quantify population pressure and the proportion of forested area are correlated with soil erosion for all countries. Deforestation rates in the 80´s are especially related to water erosion. Considering only countries without extreme climatic conditions[12] correlations are found between soil erosion and variables for the intensity of land use and the degree of expansion of the agricultural frontier. Producer price declines for relevant agricultural products are also found to be correlated with soil erosion in these countries. Corresponding to theoretical assumptions, the importance of different natural factors vary for different types of erosion and climatic zones. Altogether, variables that express structural conditions and can be regarded as the outcome of historical, long-term developments, seem to have stronger correlation with the extent of soil erosion than variables that quantify changes that took place within the time span under consideration, 1961 to 1990. The next methodological step consists in different factor analyses for 62 of the variables that express possible causative factors and for 73 countries with approximatively complete data sets. The principal objectives are to detect structural interrelationships among the multitude of variables and to reduce their number on the basis of these interrelations, in a way to obtain a set of variables that are largely independent of each other. It turns out that the structure of the 62 variables under consideration can clearly be reproduced by about 10 factors, with about 75% of their total variance being explained. These factors prove to be robust with respect to changes in the set of included variables, and in the methods of extraction and rotation. It is noteworthy, that many of the identified factors refer to cause-effect relationships that are discussed in literature. For instance, the factor that explains the greatest part of total variance, combines variables that quantify the long-run intensification of land use with others that stand for structural population pressure and a limited buffer for the expansion of the agricultural area. Other important factors relate to structural poverty, in combination with high rates of rural population growth; to the long-term and recent deforestation and to total population pressure; to development paths that aim at sopisticated animal procuction and permanent culture rather than at a mere expansion of the agricultural area. Other factors stand for the prevailing natural conditions. Based on a factor analysis for a reduced number of countries, it can be shown that declinig aggregate agricultural producer prices[13] are associated with the factor ´recent deforestation rates´. To quantify the relative importance of the identified factors, stepwise regression analyses are then carried out, with soil erosion as the dependent variable and selected representative variables for each of the factors as presumed independent variables[14]. Three human-induced factors, or developments, show to have particular relevance for the extent of soil erosion, that they can explain to up to 75%: (1) the long-run historical expansion of the agricultural frontier at the expense of the forested area, in combination with a population pressure well above the corresponding supporting capacities in the 80´s; (2) recent deforestation rates in conjunction with total population growth. This effect can rather be associated with a growth of demand for agricultural and forestral products and declining agricultural prices than with pressures directly resulting from agricultural population and expansion; (3) the long-run intensification of land use, mainly throug the conversion of permanent pastures to arable land, the shortening of fallow periods, and the increase of animal densities. This type of intensification is associated with and possibly induced by high structural population pressure in agricultural areas. Another important result is that poverty seems to have minor impact on the extent of soil erosion at the aggregate, national level. None of the included variables that represent the factor ´poverty´ shows a significant relative impact, neither in the models for the sum of erosion nor for specific types of erosion or climatic zones. This fact supports the low correlation coefficients for altogether 15 different poverty indicators that were calculated in the context of simple correlation analysis. Specific models for specific types of erosion and climatic zones show that there exist characteristic patterns of explanation for each type and zone. Recent deforestation rates and the associated features (factor (2))are particularily important in the explanation of water erosion, especially in countries with predominant humid climate. The impact of production-intensity in terms of factor (3) is specific for water erosion, and for countries without extreme climatic conditions, together with the factors (1) and (2). This is also where the negative effect of declinig agricultural prices appears to be strongest. At the same time, the development of sopisticated animal procuction and the growth of the area under permanent culture in contrast to a mere expansion of the agricultural area seem to be favourable to the soil in this context. In the explanation of wind erosion and loss of nutrients, natural factors are in the foreground. The identified, human-induced pressures related to long-term population growth, intesification, agricultural price decline and recent deforestation are consistent with important theoretical hypotheses. Those pressures are clearly not of the type that can be overcome over night through political intervention. Nevertheless, they lead to the following areas of intervention that should be given priority in the design of policy measures for the reduction of soil erosion: A reduction of population pressure through an increase in site-specific production potentials, based upon innovations that match the prevailing agro-ecological and economic conditions. Special attention should be given to low potential areas.A stronger focus on forest policy and the regulation of commercial forest use especially in the humid zone.A selective, long-term improvement of economic incentives for the production of soil-conserving crops with soil-conserving methods, by means of economic policy as well as through improved institutional conditions. Policies that aim at the reduction of poverty can not be expected to play a decisive role in the reduction of soil erosion. In spite of that, it is most necessary that policy makers keep in mind that the poor certainly are most affected by and vulnerable to erosion damages. At a global scale, the quality of future research on the topic will largely be determined by data availability and quality: concerning soil erosion, information at different points in time is necessary; for anthropogenic factors, spatial datasets will bring a new dimension into scientific research. Parallel with global analyses, further in depth local studies are necessary for a comprehensive and detailed insight into why and which land users degrade the resource they depend on in a specific socioeconomic context. footnotes: [8]The loss of nutrients and organic matter, independent of soil erosion, is also considered and is abbreviated with the term ´loss of nutrients´ in this text. [9]Again, it is the land area excluding wasteland that is being referred to. [10]Spatial data sets are not avaiable yet for socioeconomic factors related to soil erosion. [11]I.e. it is not known a priori, how these causes can be measured and quantified. [12]I.e. countries without predominant arid, hyper-arid or humid agroclimatioc conditions. [13]The availability of data for the variable in cause is limited to 56 coutries. [14]Reciprocal effects that soil erosion might have on anthropogenic factors are not very likely to occurr within the considered time span, except a possible increase of poverty due to erosion.

This piece was written by Alex Reep (CEGA Agriculture Intern) and Emily Sylvia (J-PAL Policy Manager) and was originally posted on the J-PAL blog.Farmer working in a field in Kenya | Neil PalmerAs farms become more productive, grow in size, or diversify into more lucrative crops, farmers require more labor hours and, often, more skilled labor. Labor needs may change with agricultural production practices, as commercial crops often require more labor than staples (e.g. horticulture requires additional weeding and regular harvesting in comparison to seasonal staple cultivation) and as farming practices change (e.g. regular irrigation requires consistent labor, and mechanization may displace labor at some stages of production). Despite being crucial to profitable farming systems, we know less about land and labor market failures than other constraints to agricultural technology adoption and productivity. Further evidence is required to understand important gaps in our knowledge of how farmers can best utilize household and hired labor, in addition to agricultural technologies.Evidence from randomized evaluations on labor and agricultural productivityThe Agricultural Technology Adoption Initiative (ATAI), a collaboration between the Center for Effective Global Action (CEGA) and the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), was launched in 2009 to rigorously test programs that aim to increase farmers' welfare through the broader use of technologies that help increase farmers' productivity in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Since then, ATAI has funded randomized evaluations to answer critical questions around labor decisions and constraints to farmers' growth. This research has focused on how labor affects and is affected by gender and household dynamics, mechanization, and income diversification. But, there are a number of open questions yet to be rigorously tested.Household labor and gender dynamicsResearch has shown that there is a gender gap in agricultural productivity. Women, who make up nearly half of the agricultural labor force in Africa, produce less per hectare on average than men. This may be because women often have more limited access to productivity-enhancing resources and knowledge of improved practices. They also tend to have less agency in allocating their own time and labor. Gender equity among agricultural laborers and household members is therefore an essential piece in unlocking broader productivity and growth in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly.Households often allocate labor along gendered lines — women may be more involved in planting, food processing, and ensuring dietary diversity, while men may be involved in field preparation, sales, managing non-household workers, or harvest. One ATAI-funded pilot study in Zambia looked at intra-household dynamics related to agricultural technology adoption and broader decision-making. Survey results suggested that a wife's bargaining power in the household explained the most variation in yields between the plots cultivated by herself and her husband, even more so than the practices they used. More evidence is needed to understand these intra-household dynamics, as well as the broader market dynamics related to demand for male versus female labor, differences in wages and work conditions, and productivity based on levels of cooperation for both women and men.Family labor versus hired workersBoosting agricultural productivity calls for an increased focus on changing farming systems toward higher-value crops that make more extensive use of labor throughout the year. Approximately 75 percent of farms worldwide rely on household labor to remain viable. Whether laborers come from the household or are hired externally affects costs and demand for work in local markets.Research has suggested that farmer profits can be improved by valuing work on agricultural activities done by household members the same as wages paid to hired labor. Intensive tasks require greater supervision, so households can cut costs by reallocating intensive activities to household members who may have an intrinsic motivation to do the job well, rather than seasonally hired workers. Similarly, supervision may be more difficult to allocate to hired labor so that farmers may need to prioritize family workers for certain tasks.Researchers have conducted evaluations in Ghana, Mali, Niger, and Zambia using different interventions and policy levers to assess households' decision making and pricing of family labor versus hired laborers.For example, the ATAI-funded evaluation in Niger tested the impact of providing training for the construction of an environmental technology (demi-lunes or water collection pits) on household labor allocation among other outcomes. Constructing demi-lunes is labor-intensive, and adhering to certain technical norms increases their effectiveness. Therefore, increased adoption of and investment in demi-lunes led households to reallocate household labor in the short-term to facilitate the construction of demi-lunes. Specifically, farmers moved household members to lead the more skilled yet cumbersome work of building the demi-lunes and hired outside laborers to cover seasonal agricultural tasks, such as sowing and weeding.Social norms and pressures additionally affect labor costs and patterns by influencing peoples' willingness to accept various jobs and salaries. An ATAI-funded study in India found that workers may take jobs with wage cuts in private, but reject them in public due to fear of social stigma. Understanding the balance between household labor and hired labor is essential to accurately value labor force participation and estimate labor productivity, particularly among small-scale farms in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia where household members play a larger role in smooth farm operations.Agriculture mechanization: Labor-demanding and labor-saving technologiesMechanizing farm operations can allow laborers to work on other important tasks rather than time-consuming or high-skill tasks, like tilling, reaping, and sowing seeds. Some technologies and practices are labor-saving (tractors and irrigation systems), while others are labor-demanding (transplanting seedlings to fields to improve germination rather than broadcasting seeds into a tilled field). Adopting innovations may allow households to reallocate their time spent on manual labor to higher-skilled roles, supervising hired labor, overseeing mechanized processes, and for non-agricultural economic activities. In an ATAI-funded evaluation in India, researchers found that vouchers and cash grants for machine rentals increased mechanization during land preparation, freeing up hired labor in other stages of production and freeing up household time, particularly from members engaged in farm supervision activities. They also found evidence of higher time engagement in off-farm activities from farmers that already participated in those markets. However following the successful introduction of new technologies, complementary investments in labor may be required to ensure that technology is working the way it was intended. More research is needed to better understand the effect of introducing technologies at different stages of agricultural production.Promoting local economic diversification among agricultural householdsBroader planning against the agricultural calendar is a critical step in households' decisions to hire workers or seek off-farm employment for family members. Agricultural activities are seasonal, and demand and supply of labor for production and harvest ebb and flow depending on the time of year and skill of the worker. In many contexts, there is a lull in demand for labor after planting, often called a "lean season," where households have less disposable income. Therefore, there is a need to generate economic opportunities or activities for farming households outside of agriculture in their local market or in nearby urban centers.A randomized evaluation in Bangladesh looked at grants delivered to households who opted to migrate to urban areas for work during the lean season. Researchers found that the grants improved migrants' income and made it less competitive to get work within the village, increasing wages and the number of work hours available in the market.Future research could build on this and assess other ways to increase productive, local, and lucrative employment opportunities between peak planting and harvesting periods to ensure work is available throughout the year.Open questions for new research on agricultural laborAs some of the evaluations cited here suggest, results may not always translate to other contexts. Therefore, researchers often call for more research to test the aforementioned interventions and relevant questions in different agricultural labor markets.In addition to those highlighted above, there are a number of open questions at the nexus of labor and agriculture to develop a deeper understanding of wage setting, skill-building, and how households allocate labor to agricultural activities. Areas for further research include:assessing interventions that allow households to hire workers and take jobs in other sectors or allow them to more extensively use family labor throughout the year (through crop diversification, mechanization, role specialization, etc.)evaluating the effects of farm size, health of workers, contracting, and trust in the local labor marketshifting from subsistence cultivation of staple crops to intensive cultivation of commercial crops through a process of agricultural transformation, where the former heavily utilizes female labor while the latter is traditionally a domain of male labor in many contexts; and understanding what complementary interventions can improve outcomes for women when labor demands and activities favor menimproving access to productive assets, like machine rentalstesting interventions designed to engage women and other vulnerable or marginalized groups, such as landless laborers, in more lucrative, appealing, or empowering work.On February 21, ATAI released its newest call for proposals, and encourages more research that expands the body of evidence related to labor and agricultural systems. For information on eligibility, please review the ATAI call for proposals.If you are a researcher or implementing organization interested in partnering with ATAI to evaluate a related program, please reach out to atai [at] povertyactionlab [dot] org. In addition to the general RPF, the initiative also specifically invites proposals that investigate approaches designed to benefit or empower women. Applicants with a gender-focused approach should choose the gender-focused application on the online portal.Agricultural productivity and labor: Evidence and open questions for researchers was originally published in CEGA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

The year in foreign policy was marked by bloody conflict, humanitarian catastrophe, and grief, plus political failures and missteps. Let's take a look at the most notable ones as we approach 2024.Losers in major conflicts and geopolitical shiftsUkraine: The bravery and endurance of the Ukrainian people and its military forces have been extolled time and again. But the failure of its counteroffensive in the spring and the summer of 2023 has led in part to a loss in confidence that the country can ever hope to expunge the Russians from all of its territories. This of course has been not only the goal of President Volodymyr Zelensky, but of his Western supporters. Many of those allies, including the mainstream press, are now suggesting that not only will Ukraine have to find a way to end the war diplomatically — which critics including contributors at RS and at the Quincy Institute have been saying all along — but may have to make territorial compromises.The goal of Ukrainian NATO membership seems like a faraway dream now, and as of the end of the year, the flood of weapons and money from Washington and Western capitals has slowed immensely. Zelensky, now being pegged as increasingly isolated and unrealistic, has seemingly fallen from grace. Unfortunately for him, this is not the first time in U.S. foreign policy history that Washington has turned its favor elsewhere, to the grave detriment of its former beneficiaries.Israel, and the Palestinian people: The government of Israel, blind-sighted by a brutal Hamas attack that left 1200 Israelis dead and 240 hostages whisked away on Oct. 7, has retaliated with such force in Gaza strip that it is squandering much of the rest of the world's goodwill and sympathy. Israelis, as wracked by grief and anger as they are, are not confident that their government has a plan for Gaza after the war, but are steadfast (at least according to polls) that the Netanyahu regime can destroy Hamas, and that care to avoid Palestinian civilian suffering should not be a consideration in executing that.Meanwhile, the Palestinian death toll in Gaza as of this week was well over 21,000. Israel claims to have killed 7,000 Hamas fighters but, according to the New York Times, does not explain how it came to that number. This has created a situation in which Israel (and its U.S. supporters) are increasingly isolated, whether it be at the United Nations or in public opinion across the globe. Furthermore, the Palestinians in Gaza are suffering from catastrophic hunger and a lack of healthcare (there are reportedly no functioning hospitals left in northern Gaza). Nearly 90% have been displaced due to Israeli military bombardments, and infectious diseases are ripping through the traumatized population.Joe Biden: The president of the United States has been backed into a corner on two major fronts this year. On Ukraine, his framing of the war as a Manichaean battle — and a struggle for freedom that will have global repercussions if America doesn't help Zelensky "for as along as it takes" — is coming back to bite his administration. Calls are increasing to begin diplomatic talks in earnest with a government that Washington had relegated to Hitler-like status. Meanwhile, Congress is pushing back on giving Ukraine the billions more in weapons and cash it needs to survive.Biden's team looks indecisive and vulnerable as it moves into what promises to be a brutal re-election. This has only been compounded by the administration's complete inability to rein in the military excesses of the Israeli government in Gaza and the West Bank too. While supposedly making "it clear" to Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. wants civilians protected, Biden's administration did all it could to water down the UN Security Council ceasefire at the Israelis' behest, and even a resolution to institute humanitarian "pauses" has, as of this writing, not been put into effect.Biden has also greased the skids for all the weapons the Israelis have asked for, with American-made "dumb bombs" responsible for the multitude of deaths and property destruction in the Gaza strip today. Not only is Washington viewed as having no influence over the Israelis (despite the enormous sums of money and weapons sent there annually); it looks duplicitous when it comes to grand assertions about upholding the "rules-based order." Losers we might have missed ...The Armenian people: Every single Armenian — some 100,000 — was pushed out of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory by Azerbaijan in October. Earlier this year, Azerbaijan and Armenia had pledged to work toward peace after decades of conflict. But hopes waned as Azerbaijan continued a crushing blockade of goods and humanitarian aid to Armenians in the region. An Azeri military operation, launched in September, led to the ultimate takeover of the disputed land and the expulsion of Armenians within days back to Armenia.African coup and civil war victims: West Africa saw a continued rash of coups with two more in Niger and Gabon this year. In Niger, the military overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum in July and put him and his family in the palace basement where they remain today. Niger joins Burkino Faso and Mali as what Quincy Institute non-resident fellow Alex Thurston calls "the epicenter of mass violence and displacement in the region, and one of the worst conflict and humanitarian disaster zones in the world." The military seized power in Gabon in August, ousting President Ali Bongo after he had just won re-election. Meanwhile, a bloody civil war broke out in Sudan in April and soon became a proxy fight involving regional interests, with the Sudanese people, of course, caught in the crossfire. The conflict involves General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (himself a coup leader), pitted against his deputy and head of the Rapid Support Forces, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, known as Hemedti. By June, fighting in the capital city of Khartoum had left scores dead, massive property damage, and an exodus of some 100,000 to points abroad. Fighting not only continues, but is spreading, imperiling millions of civilians and throwing the entire country into a humanitarian disaster. The U.S appears to have little left, diplomatically, to offer.Sweden: The Northern European nation wants into NATO. But what seemed to be a no-brainer — its accession was linked to regional security and Western unity in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 — has become a victim of cross-state politics and recrimination. Though as of this writing Sweden seems one step closer to joining Finland as a new member of the alliance, Turkey continues to use its leverage as a NATO member to get F-16s from the U.S. and force Sweden to amend its anti-terrorism laws. Hungary has been slow walking its vote too, accusing Sweden of telling "blatant lies" about the condition of Hungary's democracy.The American taxpayer: Before Congress left for the holidays, it passed $886 billion in defense spending as part of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). These funding levels are the highest since World War II and, as the Quincy Institute's William Hartung points out, they are mostly directed toward "costly, dysfunctional weapons systems that are ill-suited to addressing current challenges."Aside from a pay increase for personnel, the 3% hike over last year represents a boon for the defense industry (which was accused this year in an important 60 Minutes report of gouging taxpayers) and the members of Congress who love them. As RS has reported many times, the defense budget does not reflect sound military strategy or even the national interest, but a wish list by contractors and politicians who benefit from funding expensive programs that in some cases, like the Osprey aircraft, put American troops in real danger. To make it worse, the Pentagon still can't pass an audit.And these guys ...Jake Sullivan: Biden's National Security Advisor penned a Foreign Affairs article entitled "The Sources of American Power," a 7,000-word attempt to put the best sheen on the Biden Administration's handling of current geopolitical events. Unfortunately, like much of the White House foreign policy approach over the last three years, it was out of step. Acknowledging "perennial challenges" in the Middle East, Sullivan said "the region is quieter than it has been for decades" and that "(we) have deescalated tensions in Gaza and restored direct diplomacy between the parties." The article was sent to print on Oct. 2, five days before the Hamas attacks on Israel. "Nobody can be expected to predict the future, but the essay offers a rare insight into how the United States misread an explosive situation in the Middle East," wrote the New York Times, which pointed out that the embarrassing comments were later scrubbed from the online edition of Foreign Affairs. However, Sullivan had been making public comments to the same effect all fall.American Generals: This year the retired generals and admirals who had been talking a big game about the Ukrainian counteroffensive and the failures of the Russian military have been forced to eat their words. Special attention should be given to all these four stars and flags (Petraeus, Stavridis, Keene, McCaffrey, Hodges, etc.) who make incessant rotations on major media and provide wrongheaded strategic assessments that are never corrected. They just pop up again in the next conflict.Malcolm Nance: One of the most visible pro-Ukraine commentators on major cable and on Twitter, the former Navy cryptologist left MSNBC in 2022 to help train the International Legion of foreign volunteers in Ukraine. His videos and tweets boasted his mission — as he was typically beefed up in uniform and weapons, ostensibly reporting from the combat zone — and drew a massive following of pro-Ukraine partisans.Then a New York Times expose dropped the bomb: Nance was enmeshed in a climate of petty squabbling and chaos and among those outsiders in Ukraine who were "fighting with themselves and undermining the war effort." He left the country and is still a commentator — on his paid subscription-only Substack. He's shifted to the Gaza War now, including a (week-long) visit to the Gulf States in October, penning posts like, "Ask Yourself, Are You Really for Palestine or Do You Just Hate Jews?" and, very much like his pro-Ukraine Twitter persona of 2022, accusing critics of Israel of "misguided ill informed myopia & latent antisemitism."