Suchergebnisse

1. Introduction / Gijs Dekkers, Cathal O'Donoghue and Marcia Keegan -- 2. Estimating the small area effects of austerity measures in the UK / Ben Anderson, Paola De Agostini and Tony Lawson -- 3. Microsimulation estimates of the inequality impact of the economic crisis in Ireland / Cathal O'Donoghue, Jason Loughrey and Karyn Morrissey -- 4. Simulating the need for health- and elderly care in Sweden : a model description of SESIM-LEV / Lisa Brouwers. [et al.] -- 5. An Australian disease and long-term care microsimulation model / Richard Cumpston -- 6. Projection of the supply of nurses in France : a microsimulation model / Muriel Barlet and Marie Cavillon -- 7. Gender aspects of the Norwegian pension system / Dennis Fredriksen and Nils Martin Stolen -- 8. The redistributive features of the Italian pension system : the importance of being neutral / Roberto Leombruni and Michele Mosca -- 9. Simulating policy alternatives for public pensions in Japan / Seiichi Inagaki -- 10. On the construction of early warning indicators of old-age poverty : the index-building versus the microsimulation approach / Georg P. Mueller -- 11. How sensitive is old-age poverty to financial crisis? : a microsimulation experiment for Sweden / Elisa Baroni, Thomas Lindh and Gustav Oberg -- 12. Going regional : the effectiveness of different tax-benefit policies in combating child poverty in Spain / Olga Canto. [et al.] -- 13. Combining EUROMOD and LIAM tools for the development of dynamic cross-sectional microsimulation models : a sneak preview / Philippe Liegeois and Gijs Dekkers -- 14. An overview of binary alignment methods in microsimulation / Jinjing Li and Cathal O'Donoghue -- 15. Simulating the expenditures of Scottish households : a two-step microsimulation approach to the Cairngorms National Park / Eveline van Leeuwen -- 16. Using Excel as a front end to a microsimulation model on energy and water concession pricing / Robert Tanton, Marcia Keegan and Quoc Ngu Vu -- 17. Modelling sequences of events with chain graph models / Marcus Wurzer and Reinhold Hatzinger -- 18. Education in the Norwegian microsimulation model MOSART / Hege Marie Gjefsen -- 19. What are the driving forces behind trends in inequality among pensioners? : validating MIDAS Belgium using a stylized model / Gijs Dekkers -- 20. An investigation of the sensitivity of a dynamic microsimulation model of urban neighbourhood dynamics / Mark Birkin and Nicolas Malleson.

Microsimulation as a modelling tool in social sciences has increased in importance over the last few decades. Once restricted to a handful of universities and government departments, as a scientific field it has achieved a new dynamism during the last decade. As computing power increases and data availability becomes more widespread, microsimulation models can be put to hitherto unprecedented uses. Edited by leading experts in the field, this book illustrates recent advances, methodologies and uses of socioeconomic microsimulation in social sciences around the world. It does so by analysing.

Microsimulation has gained attention for its use in analyzing and forecasting the individual impacts of alternative economic and social policy measures. In practice, however, microsimulation cannot be carried out from a single data source, since it requires far more information than any single data source can provide. This paper discusses ways to combine separate data sources when there are no identical key variables, using imputation techniques, to make a large but synthetic data source for microsimulation. A new approach based on propensity score matching is suggested and discussed.

Microsimulation Modelling involves the application of simulation methods to micro data for the purposes of evaluating the effectiveness and improving the design of public policy. The field has existed for over 50 years and has been applied to many different policy areas and is a methodology that is applied within both government and academia. This handbook brings together leading authors in the field to describe and discuss the main current issues within the field. The handbook provides an overview of current developments across each of the sub-fields of microsimulation modelling such as tax-benefit, pensions, spatial, health, labour, consumption, transport and land use policy as well as macro-micro, environmental and demographic issues. It focuses also on the modelling different micro units such as households, firms and farms. Each chapter discusses its sub-field under the following headings the main methodologies of the sub-field, survey the literature in the area, critique the literature and propose future directions for research within the sub-field.

Mikrosimulationsmodelle stellen geeignete Instrumente zur Abschätzung sozioökonomischer Auswirkungen alternativer Entscheidungsmöglichkeiten dar. Wesentliche Charakteristika von Mikrosimulationsmodellen sind die Disaggregierung größerer Systeme in Mikrokomponenten, vor allem in Entscheidungseinheiten (Individuum, Familie, Firma etc.), die Berücksichtigung entscheidungsrelevanter Umweltbedingungen und die Verwendung von Verhaltensmodellen, die sowohl die Attribute der Mikrokomponenten als auch die Umweltbedingungen erfassen. Tests mit historischen Daten ermöglichen die Überprüfung der Validität der verwendeten Verhaltensmodelle. Zur Abschätzung von Folgen politischer Entscheidungen müssen hierzu noch Hypothesen treten, die Aussagen über Kausalzusammenhänge zwischen einzelnen Variablen treffen. Ein geeignetes Anwendungsfeld für Mikrosimulation bietet vor allem die Sozialberichterstattung. Vorteile der Mikrosimulation liegen hier in der direkten Abbildung von Personen, Familien und Lebensgeschichten sowie dem erreichbaren Grad an Komplexität und Vielschichtigkeit. Die Problematik von Mikrosimulationsmodellen liegt in der Kostenfrage und einer Reihe möglicher Fehlerquellen bei der Modellkonstruktion (Stichprobe, "Monte Carlo Variation", Verhaltensprämissen). Abschließend weist der Verfasser auf mögliche Anwendungsbereiche von Mikrosimulation hin und diskutiert die Möglichkeit einer Kombination von Mikro- und Makromodellen. (WZ)

The subject matter of this Workshop is becoming of increasing importance to the analysis of income distribution, poverty, living standards and tax incidence, as well as to assessment of tax and income support policies in Australia. With the release of unit record tape data by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the ability to develop sophisticated computer models of personal incomes and expenditures has increased markedly. The models are being applied to analyse the impact and cost of actual government policies, of policy proposals and to track developments over time in family incomes and living standards. With the development of such models occurring simultaneously in a number of research institutes and government agencies, and at a rapid pace, a need to exchange information and techniques and expose the models to peer review was apparent. With this in mind, the Workshop summarised in this Report was organised with three specific aims: (1) To bring together Australian researchers involved in the development of tax-benefit models and microsimulation methods, with a view to sharing common developments, methodologies and difficulties and to highlight the similarities and differences in work currently in progress. (2) In light of the first meeting of the OECD Experts Panel on Microsimulation Models in July 1990, to allow the author of the Australian paper for the meeting (Phi1 Gallagher) to obtain comments on the draft of his paper for the OECD meeting; and (3) To develop a forum for on-going discussion of issues relating to microsimulation model Development, model application, model validation and, perhaps of greatest significance, issues relating to data availability, scope and cost.

Résumé Van Imhoff (Evert), Post (Wendy). - Méthodes de micro-simulation pour des projections de population La micro-simulation se distingue de la macro-simulation traditionnelle, en utilisant un échantillon plutôt que la population totale, en travaillant au niveau de données individuelles plutôt que de données agrégées, et en se basant sur des expériences aléatoires répétées plutôt que sur des nombres moyens. Nous présentons ici les circonstances sous lesquelles la micro-simulation peut être plus intéressante que des méthodes plus conventionnelles. Elle est particulièrement appropriée si les résultats du processus étudié sont complexes, tandis que les forces qui lui sont sous-jacentes sont simples. Un problème difficile en micro-simulation vient de ce que les projections sont sujettes à des variations aléatoires. Diverses sources d'aléas sont présentées, mais la plus importante est ce que nous appelons l'aléa de spécification : plus on introduit de variables explicatives dans le modèle, plus le degré d'aléa, auquel les sorties du modèle sont sujettes sera important. Après une revue rapide des modèles de micro-simulation qui existent en démographie, plusieurs des caractéristiques essentielles de la micro-simulation sont illustrées avec le modèle KINSIM, pour projeter la taille et la structure des réseaux de parenté futurs.

The aim of this book is to explore the challenges facing rural communities and economies and to demonstrate the potential of spatial microsimulation for policy and analysis in a rural context. This is done by providing a comprehensive overview of a particular spatial microsimulation model called SMILE (Simulation Model of the Irish Local Economy). The model has been developed over a ten year period for applied policy analyis in Ireland which is seen as an ideal study area given its large percentage of population living in rural areas. The book reviews the policy context and the state of the art in spatial microsimulation against which SMILE was developed, describes in detail its model design and calibration, and presents example of outputs showing what new information the model provides using a spatial matching process. The second part of the book explores a series of rural issues or problems, including the impacts of new or changing government or EU policies, and examines the contribution that spatial microsimulation can provide in each area.