War has been an integral part of human history. The economical, political, social and technological advancement of society, has transformed primitive, tribal type wars into state waged wars that are highly organized and deadly. At the same time war appears to be taking new face. Today both states and non states wage war. Still ongoing insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan, remind us that not all wars are fought among nation-states. Majority of wars in past three decades were not interstate, when at least in one fighting side it was something other than a military force, organized and operating under the control of national government. Almost all of these conflicts had the external intervention by other states. War against terrorism has showed that state owned armed forces meet new type of enemy in battle field. Not only armies and navies, but also local warlords, nets of terrorist groups and criminal gangs are the force that state militaries have to deal with. So the aim of this paper is to find out, how new warfare affects the international system and answer the questions what are the implications of the new warfare for the Armed Forces, nation states and international system. This study consists of five parts. In the first part the three concepts, competing for the position of leading theory of conflict in the twenty first century are analyzed: realpolitik approach, Transformation theory, and Forth Generation Warfare theory. Main focus is on the later. Works of the leading proponents of 4GW theory are discussed in this part: M. Creveld's theoretical thoughts about decentralization of warfare and its 'decoupleation' from the state; W. S. Lind's Forth Generation model and main driving factors simulating generational shift; and T. X. Hammes's ideas about political, social and economic factors as a true drivers of generational change. The aim of this analysis was to derive characteristics of the New Warfare. This enabled to identify the most dominant, specific features of this type of war fighting: new actors, new space and asymmetry. The second part of the paper is devoted for substance of the identified features elaboration. Today new participants of the new warfare could be divided at least into two groups: state and non-state actors, while within each of the aforementioned groups possible all other divisions according certain criteria. This paper focuses on civilian and military sectors including private dimension in both. Space where new warfare is taking place could be viewed through two different levels: micro and macro. While talking about the third feature - asymmetry, here this issue is discussed in terms of ways and means. In each of the other three parts of the paper the implications of new warfare for Armed Forces, States an International System are discussed. Results of the research show the need for adaptation for armed forces in terms of cooperation with private sector and more military focused civilian institutions. Concerning the states, results of the analysis show the necessity of deeper cooperation and integration with "friendly" international actors and possibility of "isolation" concerning non friendly ones. In general research shows the need for international cooperation in order to find new tools required in new war fighting; and the effect of it – the loss of states monopoly over warfare, by transferring part of their sovereignty to private sector and international institutions. New non-state actors appear in international system willing and able to shape international security issues. This affects international system, which needs to adapt to new changes in this sphere. Not only international legal base concerning war and military conflicts has to be reconsidered, but also international tools of power projection should be re-examined in terms of their relevance and effectiveness.
War has been an integral part of human history. The economical, political, social and technological advancement of society, has transformed primitive, tribal type wars into state waged wars that are highly organized and deadly. At the same time war appears to be taking new face. Today both states and non states wage war. Still ongoing insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan, remind us that not all wars are fought among nation-states. Majority of wars in past three decades were not interstate, when at least in one fighting side it was something other than a military force, organized and operating under the control of national government. Almost all of these conflicts had the external intervention by other states. War against terrorism has showed that state owned armed forces meet new type of enemy in battle field. Not only armies and navies, but also local warlords, nets of terrorist groups and criminal gangs are the force that state militaries have to deal with. So the aim of this paper is to find out, how new warfare affects the international system and answer the questions what are the implications of the new warfare for the Armed Forces, nation states and international system. This study consists of five parts. In the first part the three concepts, competing for the position of leading theory of conflict in the twenty first century are analyzed: realpolitik approach, Transformation theory, and Forth Generation Warfare theory. Main focus is on the later. Works of the leading proponents of 4GW theory are discussed in this part: M. Creveld's theoretical thoughts about decentralization of warfare and its 'decoupleation' from the state; W. S. Lind's Forth Generation model and main driving factors simulating generational shift; and T. X. Hammes's ideas about political, social and economic factors as a true drivers of generational change. The aim of this analysis was to derive characteristics of the New Warfare. This enabled to identify the most dominant, specific features of this type of war fighting: new actors, new space and asymmetry. The second part of the paper is devoted for substance of the identified features elaboration. Today new participants of the new warfare could be divided at least into two groups: state and non-state actors, while within each of the aforementioned groups possible all other divisions according certain criteria. This paper focuses on civilian and military sectors including private dimension in both. Space where new warfare is taking place could be viewed through two different levels: micro and macro. While talking about the third feature - asymmetry, here this issue is discussed in terms of ways and means. In each of the other three parts of the paper the implications of new warfare for Armed Forces, States an International System are discussed. Results of the research show the need for adaptation for armed forces in terms of cooperation with private sector and more military focused civilian institutions. Concerning the states, results of the analysis show the necessity of deeper cooperation and integration with "friendly" international actors and possibility of "isolation" concerning non friendly ones. In general research shows the need for international cooperation in order to find new tools required in new war fighting; and the effect of it – the loss of states monopoly over warfare, by transferring part of their sovereignty to private sector and international institutions. New non-state actors appear in international system willing and able to shape international security issues. This affects international system, which needs to adapt to new changes in this sphere. Not only international legal base concerning war and military conflicts has to be reconsidered, but also international tools of power projection should be re-examined in terms of their relevance and effectiveness.
The problem under study. The problem of efficiency of alternative to imprisonment (non-custodial) sanctions is investigated in the present study. The fundamental advantage of this kind of punishment is the possibility to control offenders' behavior in the community. This idea is based on the personal ability to change, which depends on an offender's will and efforts to change himself and to start solving the problems, which have caused the offending behavior (motivation to change). Therefore, imposed alternative sanctions should affect the changes in offenders' behavior. The individual conditions (obligation and/or restrictions) of the sanction, imposed by a court, should direct an offender's efforts to change. The problem of efficiency of alternative sanctions is discovered, while studying, how the conditions of imposition and execution of these sanctions could affect the criminogenic factors and, therefore, could reduce recidives of crime. Analyzing these aspects we can observe the problem of individualization of punishment, or finding the appropriate sanction, and the problem of coherent application of the sanction. A court, imposing non-custodial sanction, should not only state a term of its application, but also should decide, if the imposed obligations (their amount and character) are sufficient to supervise the offender in the community. The imposition of non-custodial sanctions to a great extend determs the process of execution of it. Particularly, if the conditions of imposed sanction do not determine the offender to change and to solve the problems, related with offending behavior, then the control of their execution cannot affect the recidive of offending. The practical efficiency of these sanctions is determed by selection of the appropriate sanction; by sufficiency and practical useness of requirements, applied to offender in the process of execution; and by evaluation of the execution. The relevance of the study. The Commettee of Ministers of The Council of Europe, solving the problem of overcrowdedness of prisons, recommended to the member-states to deliver the plan to solve this problem, which would be based on the priorities of punishment, the public opinion, and the analysis of present practice of punishment. The program of the Government of the Republic of Lithuania of years 2000 – 2004 contains the intention to modify partially the system of punishment; to state the adequate punishment to the violations of law, to reduce the repressive effect of sanctions, to seek the social integration of the persons, having served the sentence. In this program there was presumed "the principle of economy of punishment" – the least sanction, which would be enough to affect the offender and stimulate him to change; confirmed the intention to apply community service, material sanctions and other non-custodial sanctions rather than penal measures. The legislative directions, contained in these documents, allowed to extend the application of alternative sanctions in the Penal Code, which came into effect on 1 May 2003. These measures were supposed to reduce the number of imprisoned and to become an efficient alternative to custodial sanctions. One of the conditions of efficiency of alternative sanctions is a systematic analysis and evaluation, if its application helps to reach the planned results. After more than five years since new Penal Code came into effect, we have some expirience of application of alternative sanctions, which would need a revision. Observing the functioning of the system of these sanction we can note, that the sanctions are being imposed and executed chaotically. This primary overview determs the relevance of theoretical and practical study of alternative sanctions. The law acts of the Republic of Lithuania forms the need to create an efficient model of probation. The program of the Government of the Respublic of Lithuania of the years 2004 – 2008 foresees to develop the model of probation (suspended sentence, early discharge from punishment), which would be conform to international legal acts and would stimulate offenders not to offend in the future. The activity program of the Government of the year 2009 foresees to extend the efficient probation (including suspended sentence) system, which is oriented towards management of the risk of repeated offending behavior, which would create the conditions for social security, for reducing the recidives of crime, and particularly for reducing the number of imprisoned people. The mentioned program contains the intention to direct the work of correctional inspections toward social aid to convicts, not only toward the control of their behavior. Development of the model for probation is also approved in the Conception of probation system in Lithuania. In order to achieve these aims, it is necessary to explore the problems of the existing system of alternative sanctions and to state practice-based criteria, which the efficiency of the sanctions depends on. The object of the study. In this dissertation study there is investigated theorical and practical aspects of conditions of imposition and execution of community service, limitation of freedom and suspended sentence, in the terms of rational usage of resources and reducing of recidives. The aim of the study. The aim of this dissertation study is to state the shortcomings of application of alternative sanctions and to formulate the criteria of efficiency, on the base of theoretical knowledge and collected practical data. The tasks of the study: 1) To present theorical analysis of the system of alternative sanctions (probation); 2) To analize the criteria, which efficiency of the system of alternative sanctions depends on; 3) To analize, if the existing reglamentation of sanction imposition allows to a court to select the appropriate alternative sanction; 4) To investigate the concept of offender's personality and his dangerness, formed in the Lithuanian penal law; 5) To state, if the structure of evaluation of personality and dangerness ensures elimination of the criminogenic factors; 6) To state the main practical problems of imposition of alternative sanctions; 7) To investigate the process of execution of alternative sanctions, to explore its main shortcomings and to state the criteria of its efficiency. The scientific recency of the study. The legal and social criteria of efficiency of non-custodial sanction have not been yet researched in Lithuania. This dissertation study presents the complex research of the presumptions of efficiency of these sanctions.The study contains analysis of the national system of alternative sanctions, in the context of reglamentation of this system by international legal acts and reglamentation of national systems in such countries, as the United Kingdom, Sweden and others. The area of present research also comprises the examination of scientific substantiation of the national system in the context of concepts of efficiency, approved in these countries. The author of the study argues the significant role of scientific approach, based on practical research, in the formation of the efficient system of alternative sanctions. The study contains the description of the scientific and practical researches, which allowed to comprehend the link between the structured evaluation of offender's personality and the selection of a proper sanction. In the study there are also argued the significant role of proper evaluation of the social factors in realization of alternative sanctions. The analysis comprises not only theoretical conception of efficiency, but also the evaluation of expirience of application of the sanctions in Lithuania. This study presents the new approach to the problems of the discretion of sanction imposition and the evaluation of offender's personality. The significance of the work. One of the significant aspect of the present research is the analysis of some years of the practice in application of alternative sanction in Lithuania. On the basis of complex research we have tried to state the criteria of efficiency of alternative sanctions. These criteria could be used improving the legal acts on the imposition and execution of alternative sanctions. The hypothesis of the study. The existing mechanism of imposition and execution of alternative sanctions is not efficient, since its affection to recidive of crime is not based on the measures, oriented towards elimination or correction of criminogenic factors. The maintained statements of the dissertation study: 1. The possibility to control (supervise) a convict in the community depends on his motivation, which is expressed by his consent (agreement) to fulfil the requirements of imposed obligation. 2. The rules of imposition of alternative sanctions should be oriented to the certain groups of offenders (for example, substances addicted persons). 3. Since a court has extensive discretion in selection of the type of alternative sanction, the main reason for the selection is evaluation of information about an offender. 4. Subjectivity in evaluation of personality of offender and his dangerness determs eclecticism in the practice of imposition of alternative sanctions. 5. Imposition and execution of alternative sanctions should be oriented to change offender's social behavior and to eliminate criminogenic factors (substance addictment, alcohol drinking, etc.), which have been resulted in offence. 6. If substance addictment was a significant factor in making an offence, imposed to the offender alternative sanction should also contain the obligation to undergo treatment course. 7. The present reglamentation of application of alternative sanctions doesn't contribute to offenders' social progress and to their rehabilitation. 8. The present reglamentation determs only nominal approach to execution of obligation by convicts and to assessment of that execution. 9. The obligation to undergo the treatment course should
The problem under study. The problem of efficiency of alternative to imprisonment (non-custodial) sanctions is investigated in the present study. The fundamental advantage of this kind of punishment is the possibility to control offenders' behavior in the community. This idea is based on the personal ability to change, which depends on an offender's will and efforts to change himself and to start solving the problems, which have caused the offending behavior (motivation to change). Therefore, imposed alternative sanctions should affect the changes in offenders' behavior. The individual conditions (obligation and/or restrictions) of the sanction, imposed by a court, should direct an offender's efforts to change. The problem of efficiency of alternative sanctions is discovered, while studying, how the conditions of imposition and execution of these sanctions could affect the criminogenic factors and, therefore, could reduce recidives of crime. Analyzing these aspects we can observe the problem of individualization of punishment, or finding the appropriate sanction, and the problem of coherent application of the sanction. A court, imposing non-custodial sanction, should not only state a term of its application, but also should decide, if the imposed obligations (their amount and character) are sufficient to supervise the offender in the community. The imposition of non-custodial sanctions to a great extend determs the process of execution of it. Particularly, if the conditions of imposed sanction do not determine the offender to change and to solve the problems, related with offending behavior, then the control of their execution cannot affect the recidive of offending. The practical efficiency of these sanctions is determed by selection of the appropriate sanction; by sufficiency and practical useness of requirements, applied to offender in the process of execution; and by evaluation of the execution. The relevance of the study. The Commettee of Ministers of The Council of Europe, solving the problem of overcrowdedness of prisons, recommended to the member-states to deliver the plan to solve this problem, which would be based on the priorities of punishment, the public opinion, and the analysis of present practice of punishment. The program of the Government of the Republic of Lithuania of years 2000 – 2004 contains the intention to modify partially the system of punishment; to state the adequate punishment to the violations of law, to reduce the repressive effect of sanctions, to seek the social integration of the persons, having served the sentence. In this program there was presumed "the principle of economy of punishment" – the least sanction, which would be enough to affect the offender and stimulate him to change; confirmed the intention to apply community service, material sanctions and other non-custodial sanctions rather than penal measures. The legislative directions, contained in these documents, allowed to extend the application of alternative sanctions in the Penal Code, which came into effect on 1 May 2003. These measures were supposed to reduce the number of imprisoned and to become an efficient alternative to custodial sanctions. One of the conditions of efficiency of alternative sanctions is a systematic analysis and evaluation, if its application helps to reach the planned results. After more than five years since new Penal Code came into effect, we have some expirience of application of alternative sanctions, which would need a revision. Observing the functioning of the system of these sanction we can note, that the sanctions are being imposed and executed chaotically. This primary overview determs the relevance of theoretical and practical study of alternative sanctions. The law acts of the Republic of Lithuania forms the need to create an efficient model of probation. The program of the Government of the Respublic of Lithuania of the years 2004 – 2008 foresees to develop the model of probation (suspended sentence, early discharge from punishment), which would be conform to international legal acts and would stimulate offenders not to offend in the future. The activity program of the Government of the year 2009 foresees to extend the efficient probation (including suspended sentence) system, which is oriented towards management of the risk of repeated offending behavior, which would create the conditions for social security, for reducing the recidives of crime, and particularly for reducing the number of imprisoned people. The mentioned program contains the intention to direct the work of correctional inspections toward social aid to convicts, not only toward the control of their behavior. Development of the model for probation is also approved in the Conception of probation system in Lithuania. In order to achieve these aims, it is necessary to explore the problems of the existing system of alternative sanctions and to state practice-based criteria, which the efficiency of the sanctions depends on. The object of the study. In this dissertation study there is investigated theorical and practical aspects of conditions of imposition and execution of community service, limitation of freedom and suspended sentence, in the terms of rational usage of resources and reducing of recidives. The aim of the study. The aim of this dissertation study is to state the shortcomings of application of alternative sanctions and to formulate the criteria of efficiency, on the base of theoretical knowledge and collected practical data. The tasks of the study: 1) To present theorical analysis of the system of alternative sanctions (probation); 2) To analize the criteria, which efficiency of the system of alternative sanctions depends on; 3) To analize, if the existing reglamentation of sanction imposition allows to a court to select the appropriate alternative sanction; 4) To investigate the concept of offender's personality and his dangerness, formed in the Lithuanian penal law; 5) To state, if the structure of evaluation of personality and dangerness ensures elimination of the criminogenic factors; 6) To state the main practical problems of imposition of alternative sanctions; 7) To investigate the process of execution of alternative sanctions, to explore its main shortcomings and to state the criteria of its efficiency. The scientific recency of the study. The legal and social criteria of efficiency of non-custodial sanction have not been yet researched in Lithuania. This dissertation study presents the complex research of the presumptions of efficiency of these sanctions.The study contains analysis of the national system of alternative sanctions, in the context of reglamentation of this system by international legal acts and reglamentation of national systems in such countries, as the United Kingdom, Sweden and others. The area of present research also comprises the examination of scientific substantiation of the national system in the context of concepts of efficiency, approved in these countries. The author of the study argues the significant role of scientific approach, based on practical research, in the formation of the efficient system of alternative sanctions. The study contains the description of the scientific and practical researches, which allowed to comprehend the link between the structured evaluation of offender's personality and the selection of a proper sanction. In the study there are also argued the significant role of proper evaluation of the social factors in realization of alternative sanctions. The analysis comprises not only theoretical conception of efficiency, but also the evaluation of expirience of application of the sanctions in Lithuania. This study presents the new approach to the problems of the discretion of sanction imposition and the evaluation of offender's personality. The significance of the work. One of the significant aspect of the present research is the analysis of some years of the practice in application of alternative sanction in Lithuania. On the basis of complex research we have tried to state the criteria of efficiency of alternative sanctions. These criteria could be used improving the legal acts on the imposition and execution of alternative sanctions. The hypothesis of the study. The existing mechanism of imposition and execution of alternative sanctions is not efficient, since its affection to recidive of crime is not based on the measures, oriented towards elimination or correction of criminogenic factors. The maintained statements of the dissertation study: 1. The possibility to control (supervise) a convict in the community depends on his motivation, which is expressed by his consent (agreement) to fulfil the requirements of imposed obligation. 2. The rules of imposition of alternative sanctions should be oriented to the certain groups of offenders (for example, substances addicted persons). 3. Since a court has extensive discretion in selection of the type of alternative sanction, the main reason for the selection is evaluation of information about an offender. 4. Subjectivity in evaluation of personality of offender and his dangerness determs eclecticism in the practice of imposition of alternative sanctions. 5. Imposition and execution of alternative sanctions should be oriented to change offender's social behavior and to eliminate criminogenic factors (substance addictment, alcohol drinking, etc.), which have been resulted in offence. 6. If substance addictment was a significant factor in making an offence, imposed to the offender alternative sanction should also contain the obligation to undergo treatment course. 7. The present reglamentation of application of alternative sanctions doesn't contribute to offenders' social progress and to their rehabilitation. 8. The present reglamentation determs only nominal approach to execution of obligation by convicts and to assessment of that execution. 9. The obligation to undergo the treatment course should
Relevance of the dissertation is determined by the object of research – the influence of logistical factors on transport flows distribution. The growth of world economics, business globalization, progress in technology skills extends the distances between geographical points of raw materials resources, manufacturers and consumers. Due to the membership in the European Union (EU) Lithuania has got new opportunities for international trade growth, and all the Eastern Baltic countries have become the buffer region for the EU trading with the countries of the Eastern Europe and Asia. A proper transport policy and infrastructure development would increase significantly the GNP in warehousing, transport and distribution sectors. Forecasting of potential transport flows according to logistical requirements of freight suppliers is most important for transport network optimization. Scientific problem. Contemporary transport engineering theory approaches the peculiarities of transport flows formation too narrowly, only as an analysis of internal factors determining freight flows. There is no analysis of external factors. Many researchers assume that transport flows are determined only by the existing transport network and its characteristics. Other researchers consider transport flows as a result of logistic elements only. The estimating of internal and external logistical factors provides a possibility to forecast the transport flows. Aim of the research is to create a model of logistical factors influence on transport flows distribution. Seeking to meet this aim, the author of the dissertation has solved the following tasks: 1. To make an analysis of the theory provided by Lithuanian and foreign researchers concerning the common interaction of logistics and transport, as well as to point out the advantages and disadvantages in the approaches and hypotheses of many authors, and to propose own conclusions. 2. To create a model of logistical factors and their indicators, which determine transport flows distribution in the transport network. 3. To make empirical research of indices of logistical factors in Lithuanian case. Scientific novelty of the research 1. The analysis of the research level of the scientific problem shows a very narrow theoretical view of determining transport flows. Many authors analyze internal factors only and do not estimate logistical needs of consignors and consignees. 2. The created new models determine transport flows and freight flows in transport network by internal and external specific logistical factors as well. 3. The results of empirical research of external factors confirm the created new models and provide a new interpretation and theoretical view of regularities of freight flows formation. Direct influence on basic transportation process characteristics and control is exercised by clients of transport companies. The basic attitudes for defending 1 The advantages and disadvantages of approaches of numerous researchers on logistic and transportation functions. 2 The models determining distribution of transport flows according to logistical factors. 3 The conclusions of empirical research of logistical factors' influence in Lithuanian case. The significance of the research. Theories proposed by many authors on transport and logistic functioning and interaction are analyzed, and a new point of theoretical view is given. The created models would be fit for forecasting of transport flows and planning of investments in transport infrastructure. The models would help the government, transport and logistics companies to make strategic decisions for development projects. Results of empirical research, which prove theoretical models are important for transport and logistic service providers and their customers for better common understanding and common activities. Methodology of the research is based on regression and correlative analysis, forecasting, as well as on market survey and mathematical modeling. Approbation of the work. Main theses of the dissertation were approbated in 3 scientific published works and 14 scientific conferences papers. Dissertation's structure. The work consists of introduction, three chapters, conclusions and a list of literature (123 scientific works). The amount of the work is: 108 pages, 61 figures and 20 tables. The work includes 6 appendixes. Conclusions The theoretical analysis of logistics influence on transport flows distribution concepts by many researchers, the mathematical modeling of transport flows determination factors and empirical research to give the following conclusions: 1. Many scientists explore logistics and transport by different concepts, however there are no special investigations of logistical impact on transport flows distribution in their works. The analysis of scientific works shows a dual aspect of transport flows distribution. The first theory maintains that technological engineering solutions determine transport flows; the second theory considers that they are determined by logistical factors such as: 1) added value; 2) minimization of logistics costs; 3) customer service. 2. The supporters of technological approach focus the attention on mathematical modeling of freight flows in transport network, nodes and links, as well as logistical chains. According to this point of view, physical characteristics of links and nodes only give possibility to solve the task of freight flows distribution. The scientific problem is that physical characteristics do not suffice for the right solution of this task. It is important to find and estimate external logistical factors. 3. It is important to estimate that transport flows formation is determined in long-term period according to the requirements of manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers and consumers. The trade centralization is one of the basic elements in formation of logistical channels and distribution centers, and transport flows of course. 4. The mathematical model of transport flows distribution is created here. The model gives peculiarities of freight flows distribution according to estimation of economical, juridical and physical parameters of nodes and links. If a logistical subsystem of the given sub-region does not constitute the entire goods traffic channel from the consignor to the consignee, but it is a constituent part of the entire logistical channel from the consignor to the consignee, then the flow traffic goods through that sub-region will be dependent not only on the characteristics of the logistical channel existing in the sub-region's logistical system, but it will also depend on other regions, the logistical systems of which are involved in the common logistical channel. The minimization of the characteristics of any element may cause the minimization of the characteristics of the entire logistical channel as well as the loss of its competitive abilities. 5. The model of shipment grouping according to peculiarities of transport flows and logistic requirements is created. The model enables the estimating of characteristics of freight origins and destination points and forecasting of grouped shipment routes. 6. The survey shows dual approach to transport flows distribution as well as theoretical analysis. Transport flows are distributed according to logistic strategy of transport service consumers and technological solutions, and implementations of providers as well. The survey demonstrates that transport companies are not only 'sellers' or 'providers' of transport services. They are logistical partners of transport service consumers. The strategic partnership of trading and transport companies determines in many cases the formation of transport flows in Lithuania. According forecast of 5 % yearly trade growth, freight volume by road and rail in Lithuania will increase to 133.6 million tons in year 2015. 7. The basic logistical factors determining the distribution of transport flows in Lithuania according to the survey are these: geography of consumers markets, geography of basic transport nodes, structures of logistical channels, perspective of urban development, shortest paths, political and anti-criminal security of transit, grouping of goods, national factor.
Relevance of the dissertation is determined by the object of research – the influence of logistical factors on transport flows distribution. The growth of world economics, business globalization, progress in technology skills extends the distances between geographical points of raw materials resources, manufacturers and consumers. Due to the membership in the European Union (EU) Lithuania has got new opportunities for international trade growth, and all the Eastern Baltic countries have become the buffer region for the EU trading with the countries of the Eastern Europe and Asia. A proper transport policy and infrastructure development would increase significantly the GNP in warehousing, transport and distribution sectors. Forecasting of potential transport flows according to logistical requirements of freight suppliers is most important for transport network optimization. Scientific problem. Contemporary transport engineering theory approaches the peculiarities of transport flows formation too narrowly, only as an analysis of internal factors determining freight flows. There is no analysis of external factors. Many researchers assume that transport flows are determined only by the existing transport network and its characteristics. Other researchers consider transport flows as a result of logistic elements only. The estimating of internal and external logistical factors provides a possibility to forecast the transport flows. Aim of the research is to create a model of logistical factors influence on transport flows distribution. Seeking to meet this aim, the author of the dissertation has solved the following tasks: 1. To make an analysis of the theory provided by Lithuanian and foreign researchers concerning the common interaction of logistics and transport, as well as to point out the advantages and disadvantages in the approaches and hypotheses of many authors, and to propose own conclusions. 2. To create a model of logistical factors and their indicators, which determine transport flows distribution in the transport network. 3. To make empirical research of indices of logistical factors in Lithuanian case. Scientific novelty of the research 1. The analysis of the research level of the scientific problem shows a very narrow theoretical view of determining transport flows. Many authors analyze internal factors only and do not estimate logistical needs of consignors and consignees. 2. The created new models determine transport flows and freight flows in transport network by internal and external specific logistical factors as well. 3. The results of empirical research of external factors confirm the created new models and provide a new interpretation and theoretical view of regularities of freight flows formation. Direct influence on basic transportation process characteristics and control is exercised by clients of transport companies. The basic attitudes for defending 1 The advantages and disadvantages of approaches of numerous researchers on logistic and transportation functions. 2 The models determining distribution of transport flows according to logistical factors. 3 The conclusions of empirical research of logistical factors' influence in Lithuanian case. The significance of the research. Theories proposed by many authors on transport and logistic functioning and interaction are analyzed, and a new point of theoretical view is given. The created models would be fit for forecasting of transport flows and planning of investments in transport infrastructure. The models would help the government, transport and logistics companies to make strategic decisions for development projects. Results of empirical research, which prove theoretical models are important for transport and logistic service providers and their customers for better common understanding and common activities. Methodology of the research is based on regression and correlative analysis, forecasting, as well as on market survey and mathematical modeling. Approbation of the work. Main theses of the dissertation were approbated in 3 scientific published works and 14 scientific conferences papers. Dissertation's structure. The work consists of introduction, three chapters, conclusions and a list of literature (123 scientific works). The amount of the work is: 108 pages, 61 figures and 20 tables. The work includes 6 appendixes. Conclusions The theoretical analysis of logistics influence on transport flows distribution concepts by many researchers, the mathematical modeling of transport flows determination factors and empirical research to give the following conclusions: 1. Many scientists explore logistics and transport by different concepts, however there are no special investigations of logistical impact on transport flows distribution in their works. The analysis of scientific works shows a dual aspect of transport flows distribution. The first theory maintains that technological engineering solutions determine transport flows; the second theory considers that they are determined by logistical factors such as: 1) added value; 2) minimization of logistics costs; 3) customer service. 2. The supporters of technological approach focus the attention on mathematical modeling of freight flows in transport network, nodes and links, as well as logistical chains. According to this point of view, physical characteristics of links and nodes only give possibility to solve the task of freight flows distribution. The scientific problem is that physical characteristics do not suffice for the right solution of this task. It is important to find and estimate external logistical factors. 3. It is important to estimate that transport flows formation is determined in long-term period according to the requirements of manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers and consumers. The trade centralization is one of the basic elements in formation of logistical channels and distribution centers, and transport flows of course. 4. The mathematical model of transport flows distribution is created here. The model gives peculiarities of freight flows distribution according to estimation of economical, juridical and physical parameters of nodes and links. If a logistical subsystem of the given sub-region does not constitute the entire goods traffic channel from the consignor to the consignee, but it is a constituent part of the entire logistical channel from the consignor to the consignee, then the flow traffic goods through that sub-region will be dependent not only on the characteristics of the logistical channel existing in the sub-region's logistical system, but it will also depend on other regions, the logistical systems of which are involved in the common logistical channel. The minimization of the characteristics of any element may cause the minimization of the characteristics of the entire logistical channel as well as the loss of its competitive abilities. 5. The model of shipment grouping according to peculiarities of transport flows and logistic requirements is created. The model enables the estimating of characteristics of freight origins and destination points and forecasting of grouped shipment routes. 6. The survey shows dual approach to transport flows distribution as well as theoretical analysis. Transport flows are distributed according to logistic strategy of transport service consumers and technological solutions, and implementations of providers as well. The survey demonstrates that transport companies are not only 'sellers' or 'providers' of transport services. They are logistical partners of transport service consumers. The strategic partnership of trading and transport companies determines in many cases the formation of transport flows in Lithuania. According forecast of 5 % yearly trade growth, freight volume by road and rail in Lithuania will increase to 133.6 million tons in year 2015. 7. The basic logistical factors determining the distribution of transport flows in Lithuania according to the survey are these: geography of consumers markets, geography of basic transport nodes, structures of logistical channels, perspective of urban development, shortest paths, political and anti-criminal security of transit, grouping of goods, national factor.
Relevance of the dissertation is determined by the object of research – the influence of logistical factors on transport flows distribution. The growth of world economics, business globalization, progress in technology skills extends the distances between geographical points of raw materials resources, manufacturers and consumers. Due to the membership in the European Union (EU) Lithuania has got new opportunities for international trade growth, and all the Eastern Baltic countries have become the buffer region for the EU trading with the countries of the Eastern Europe and Asia. A proper transport policy and infrastructure development would increase significantly the GNP in warehousing, transport and distribution sectors. Forecasting of potential transport flows according to logistical requirements of freight suppliers is most important for transport network optimization. Scientific problem. Contemporary transport engineering theory approaches the peculiarities of transport flows formation too narrowly, only as an analysis of internal factors determining freight flows. There is no analysis of external factors. Many researchers assume that transport flows are determined only by the existing transport network and its characteristics. Other researchers consider transport flows as a result of logistic elements only. The estimating of internal and external logistical factors provides a possibility to forecast the transport flows. Aim of the research is to create a model of logistical factors influence on transport flows distribution. Seeking to meet this aim, the author of the dissertation has solved the following tasks: 1. To make an analysis of the theory provided by Lithuanian and foreign researchers concerning the common interaction of logistics and transport, as well as to point out the advantages and disadvantages in the approaches and hypotheses of many authors, and to propose own conclusions. 2. To create a model of logistical factors and their indicators, which determine transport flows distribution in the transport network. 3. To make empirical research of indices of logistical factors in Lithuanian case. Scientific novelty of the research 1. The analysis of the research level of the scientific problem shows a very narrow theoretical view of determining transport flows. Many authors analyze internal factors only and do not estimate logistical needs of consignors and consignees. 2. The created new models determine transport flows and freight flows in transport network by internal and external specific logistical factors as well. 3. The results of empirical research of external factors confirm the created new models and provide a new interpretation and theoretical view of regularities of freight flows formation. Direct influence on basic transportation process characteristics and control is exercised by clients of transport companies. The basic attitudes for defending 1 The advantages and disadvantages of approaches of numerous researchers on logistic and transportation functions. 2 The models determining distribution of transport flows according to logistical factors. 3 The conclusions of empirical research of logistical factors' influence in Lithuanian case. The significance of the research. Theories proposed by many authors on transport and logistic functioning and interaction are analyzed, and a new point of theoretical view is given. The created models would be fit for forecasting of transport flows and planning of investments in transport infrastructure. The models would help the government, transport and logistics companies to make strategic decisions for development projects. Results of empirical research, which prove theoretical models are important for transport and logistic service providers and their customers for better common understanding and common activities. Methodology of the research is based on regression and correlative analysis, forecasting, as well as on market survey and mathematical modeling. Approbation of the work. Main theses of the dissertation were approbated in 3 scientific published works and 14 scientific conferences papers. Dissertation's structure. The work consists of introduction, three chapters, conclusions and a list of literature (123 scientific works). The amount of the work is: 108 pages, 61 figures and 20 tables. The work includes 6 appendixes. Conclusions The theoretical analysis of logistics influence on transport flows distribution concepts by many researchers, the mathematical modeling of transport flows determination factors and empirical research to give the following conclusions: 1. Many scientists explore logistics and transport by different concepts, however there are no special investigations of logistical impact on transport flows distribution in their works. The analysis of scientific works shows a dual aspect of transport flows distribution. The first theory maintains that technological engineering solutions determine transport flows; the second theory considers that they are determined by logistical factors such as: 1) added value; 2) minimization of logistics costs; 3) customer service. 2. The supporters of technological approach focus the attention on mathematical modeling of freight flows in transport network, nodes and links, as well as logistical chains. According to this point of view, physical characteristics of links and nodes only give possibility to solve the task of freight flows distribution. The scientific problem is that physical characteristics do not suffice for the right solution of this task. It is important to find and estimate external logistical factors. 3. It is important to estimate that transport flows formation is determined in long-term period according to the requirements of manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers and consumers. The trade centralization is one of the basic elements in formation of logistical channels and distribution centers, and transport flows of course. 4. The mathematical model of transport flows distribution is created here. The model gives peculiarities of freight flows distribution according to estimation of economical, juridical and physical parameters of nodes and links. If a logistical subsystem of the given sub-region does not constitute the entire goods traffic channel from the consignor to the consignee, but it is a constituent part of the entire logistical channel from the consignor to the consignee, then the flow traffic goods through that sub-region will be dependent not only on the characteristics of the logistical channel existing in the sub-region's logistical system, but it will also depend on other regions, the logistical systems of which are involved in the common logistical channel. The minimization of the characteristics of any element may cause the minimization of the characteristics of the entire logistical channel as well as the loss of its competitive abilities. 5. The model of shipment grouping according to peculiarities of transport flows and logistic requirements is created. The model enables the estimating of characteristics of freight origins and destination points and forecasting of grouped shipment routes. 6. The survey shows dual approach to transport flows distribution as well as theoretical analysis. Transport flows are distributed according to logistic strategy of transport service consumers and technological solutions, and implementations of providers as well. The survey demonstrates that transport companies are not only 'sellers' or 'providers' of transport services. They are logistical partners of transport service consumers. The strategic partnership of trading and transport companies determines in many cases the formation of transport flows in Lithuania. According forecast of 5 % yearly trade growth, freight volume by road and rail in Lithuania will increase to 133.6 million tons in year 2015. 7. The basic logistical factors determining the distribution of transport flows in Lithuania according to the survey are these: geography of consumers markets, geography of basic transport nodes, structures of logistical channels, perspective of urban development, shortest paths, political and anti-criminal security of transit, grouping of goods, national factor.
Relevance of the dissertation is determined by the object of research – the influence of logistical factors on transport flows distribution. The growth of world economics, business globalization, progress in technology skills extends the distances between geographical points of raw materials resources, manufacturers and consumers. Due to the membership in the European Union (EU) Lithuania has got new opportunities for international trade growth, and all the Eastern Baltic countries have become the buffer region for the EU trading with the countries of the Eastern Europe and Asia. A proper transport policy and infrastructure development would increase significantly the GNP in warehousing, transport and distribution sectors. Forecasting of potential transport flows according to logistical requirements of freight suppliers is most important for transport network optimization. Scientific problem. Contemporary transport engineering theory approaches the peculiarities of transport flows formation too narrowly, only as an analysis of internal factors determining freight flows. There is no analysis of external factors. Many researchers assume that transport flows are determined only by the existing transport network and its characteristics. Other researchers consider transport flows as a result of logistic elements only. The estimating of internal and external logistical factors provides a possibility to forecast the transport flows. Aim of the research is to create a model of logistical factors influence on transport flows distribution. Seeking to meet this aim, the author of the dissertation has solved the following tasks: 1. To make an analysis of the theory provided by Lithuanian and foreign researchers concerning the common interaction of logistics and transport, as well as to point out the advantages and disadvantages in the approaches and hypotheses of many authors, and to propose own conclusions. 2. To create a model of logistical factors and their indicators, which determine transport flows distribution in the transport network. 3. To make empirical research of indices of logistical factors in Lithuanian case. Scientific novelty of the research 1. The analysis of the research level of the scientific problem shows a very narrow theoretical view of determining transport flows. Many authors analyze internal factors only and do not estimate logistical needs of consignors and consignees. 2. The created new models determine transport flows and freight flows in transport network by internal and external specific logistical factors as well. 3. The results of empirical research of external factors confirm the created new models and provide a new interpretation and theoretical view of regularities of freight flows formation. Direct influence on basic transportation process characteristics and control is exercised by clients of transport companies. The basic attitudes for defending 1 The advantages and disadvantages of approaches of numerous researchers on logistic and transportation functions. 2 The models determining distribution of transport flows according to logistical factors. 3 The conclusions of empirical research of logistical factors' influence in Lithuanian case. The significance of the research. Theories proposed by many authors on transport and logistic functioning and interaction are analyzed, and a new point of theoretical view is given. The created models would be fit for forecasting of transport flows and planning of investments in transport infrastructure. The models would help the government, transport and logistics companies to make strategic decisions for development projects. Results of empirical research, which prove theoretical models are important for transport and logistic service providers and their customers for better common understanding and common activities. Methodology of the research is based on regression and correlative analysis, forecasting, as well as on market survey and mathematical modeling. Approbation of the work. Main theses of the dissertation were approbated in 3 scientific published works and 14 scientific conferences papers. Dissertation's structure. The work consists of introduction, three chapters, conclusions and a list of literature (123 scientific works). The amount of the work is: 108 pages, 61 figures and 20 tables. The work includes 6 appendixes. Conclusions The theoretical analysis of logistics influence on transport flows distribution concepts by many researchers, the mathematical modeling of transport flows determination factors and empirical research to give the following conclusions: 1. Many scientists explore logistics and transport by different concepts, however there are no special investigations of logistical impact on transport flows distribution in their works. The analysis of scientific works shows a dual aspect of transport flows distribution. The first theory maintains that technological engineering solutions determine transport flows; the second theory considers that they are determined by logistical factors such as: 1) added value; 2) minimization of logistics costs; 3) customer service. 2. The supporters of technological approach focus the attention on mathematical modeling of freight flows in transport network, nodes and links, as well as logistical chains. According to this point of view, physical characteristics of links and nodes only give possibility to solve the task of freight flows distribution. The scientific problem is that physical characteristics do not suffice for the right solution of this task. It is important to find and estimate external logistical factors. 3. It is important to estimate that transport flows formation is determined in long-term period according to the requirements of manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers and consumers. The trade centralization is one of the basic elements in formation of logistical channels and distribution centers, and transport flows of course. 4. The mathematical model of transport flows distribution is created here. The model gives peculiarities of freight flows distribution according to estimation of economical, juridical and physical parameters of nodes and links. If a logistical subsystem of the given sub-region does not constitute the entire goods traffic channel from the consignor to the consignee, but it is a constituent part of the entire logistical channel from the consignor to the consignee, then the flow traffic goods through that sub-region will be dependent not only on the characteristics of the logistical channel existing in the sub-region's logistical system, but it will also depend on other regions, the logistical systems of which are involved in the common logistical channel. The minimization of the characteristics of any element may cause the minimization of the characteristics of the entire logistical channel as well as the loss of its competitive abilities. 5. The model of shipment grouping according to peculiarities of transport flows and logistic requirements is created. The model enables the estimating of characteristics of freight origins and destination points and forecasting of grouped shipment routes. 6. The survey shows dual approach to transport flows distribution as well as theoretical analysis. Transport flows are distributed according to logistic strategy of transport service consumers and technological solutions, and implementations of providers as well. The survey demonstrates that transport companies are not only 'sellers' or 'providers' of transport services. They are logistical partners of transport service consumers. The strategic partnership of trading and transport companies determines in many cases the formation of transport flows in Lithuania. According forecast of 5 % yearly trade growth, freight volume by road and rail in Lithuania will increase to 133.6 million tons in year 2015. 7. The basic logistical factors determining the distribution of transport flows in Lithuania according to the survey are these: geography of consumers markets, geography of basic transport nodes, structures of logistical channels, perspective of urban development, shortest paths, political and anti-criminal security of transit, grouping of goods, national factor.
