Wind power in China 2008: an analysis of the status quo and perspectives for development
In: Diplomarbeit
From the introduction: The last two years mark a turning point in public perception of human-induced climate change as a problem of global importance. The widespread acceptance that 'most of the observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas [GHG] concentrations' has increased political pressure on governments to reduce GHG emissions. At the same time, rising oil prices have made the reduction of dependence on energy imports and diversification of the energy mix strategic imperatives for many countries around the world. While governments worldwide are confronted with this dual challenge, it is of special relevance to China. On the one hand, China has recently become the world's largest emitter of CO2, accounting for 24% of global annual CO2 emissions. China is therefore one of the most important players to effectively mitigate global warming and pressure from governments around the world on China to join emission reductions efforts is mounting. On the other hand, energy demand is growing exponentially and China is increasingly relying on energy imports to satisfy energy needs. Worried that growing dependency on energy imports may be accompanied by foreign-policy and economic pressures that might threaten national security as well as social and political stability, China has implemented a number of policies to address this issue ranging from policies to save energy and reduce energy intensity, to the diversification of oil supply sources and routes, the support of equity oil overseas acquisitions and the build up of strategic oil reserves to the diversification of the energy portfolio. In line with the objective to diversify the composition of the energy mix, China's leadership is increasingly realizing the need to reduce emissions and support renewable energy development. At a recently held Politburo study session, President Hu Jintao exclaimed: 'Our task is tough, and our time is limited. Party organisations and governments at all levels must give priority to emission reduction and bring the idea deep into people's hearts". To address the issue of energy security, the Chinese government has adapted a two-pronged approach. While measures to promote energy savings and efficiency curb the increase in energy demand, the support of renewable and nuclear energy reduces dependency on energy imports and contributes to the broadening of the foundation of energy supply. This study focuses on China's renewable energy policy and the development of wind energy in China in particular. Commitment by the highest levels of government and a host of favourable policies have triggered a boom in renewable energy in China, especially in the wind power sector. A major step in the development of renewable energy in China has been the Renewable Energy Law that came into effect in January 2006. In addition, the government has set ambitious targets for energy intensity reduction, and share of renewable energy of primary energy consumption. China is on the way to become the world leader in renewable energies. In 2007, investment in renewable energies in China amounted to approximately US$ 12 billion, second only to Germany. In terms of installed renewable energy capacity, China leads the world with 151 GW of installed capacity, largely due to the widespread utilization of hydropower for electricity generation. According to a report by the United Nations Environmental Programme, China is the world's leading manufacturer of solar cells, with an estimated annual production capacity of 3.000 MW. China's wind power market was the third biggest worldwide in 2007 and growth rates continue to exceed expectations. In 2009, China is expected to take the lead as the largest manufacturer of wind turbines. Hydro power represents the most important source of renewable energy in China and plays an important part in the power generation portfolio, most notably since the construction of the Three Gorges Dam. Hydro capacity is expected to double to 290 GW until 2020, but concerns about the social and environmental impact of large-scale hydro power are becoming stronger. Although China is the world's leading solar manufacturer, installed solar photovoltaic power capacity amounts to a mere 0.01% of total power generation capacity (80 MW, approx. 50% of which are off-grid). Solar power equipment is produced almost exclusively for export. Considering China's enormous energy demand and the pace of its growth, deployment of solar photovoltaic power is not viewed as a first-rate solution to satisfy China's energy needs, since it features high costs and low efficiencies compared to other renewables like hydro or wind power. While China does not have significant amounts of solar PV capacity, it is the biggest market for solar thermal systems for heating and hot water supply with 64,5% of global capacity, amounting to 68 GW. Biomass covers 13% of primary energy demand, mostly used in rural households for heating and cooking. In 2007, only 0,28% of power generation capacity were fuelled by biomass. The government plans to expand biomass capacity from 2 to 30 GW by 2020. Despite the impressive progress of recent years, renewable energies - excluding hydro - only contribute less than 1% to China's electricity supply and the skies above China's urban areas continue to be shrouded by smog. Since coal-fired power generation accounts for 82,9% of total electricity supply, it is no surprise that half of China's emissions are attributable to power generation. With electricity demand growing rapidly alongside the economy, dependency on coal as the major source for power generation is likely to persist. However, as the most important source of renewable energy next to hydro, and growth of installed capacity constantly accelerating, peaking at about 130% in 2007, wind power is one of – if not the – most promising option on China's path towards diversification of the energy mix. In recent years wind power has become a mainstream source of renewable energy excelling with mature technology and power generation costs almost competitive with conventional power sources, providing a viable alternative to coal as a source of electricity generation. In 2005, just before the development of wind power started to pick up pace, the China Wind Power Training and Research Project (CWPP) of the German Development Cooperation (GTZ) saw its inception, with the aim of improving the conditions for sustained development of wind power in China. Primary objective of CWPP is the support of sustained long-term wind power development in China. To attain this goal CWPP supports the improvement of technical capabilities of private and government institutions and organizations through activities in the fields of wind power training, technical support and research. The project's engagement ranges from training of technicians in charge of operation and maintenance (OM) at wind farms to the introduction and localisation of software vital to wind resource assessment. These capacity building activities are complemented by wind power information services as well as policy advice to relevant government institutions. The CWPP activities and the indicators measuring its success are based on an analysis of framework conditions in 2003/2004. However, since then the general conditions for wind power in China have changed drastically due to policy changes inducing exponential growth of the industry. While from 2000 to 2005 total installed capacity grew at an average rate of 31%, it more than doubled in the last two years. Newly installed capacity increased at an even faster rate averaging 156% annual growth from 2005 till 2007. In light of the boom in the Chinese wind power sector, it is imperative to realign project activities with actual market conditions on the basis of an up-to-date assessment of the current situation and future outlook. This analysis of the wind power sector in China in 2008 will serve as a basis for the review of current CWPP activities with the aim of developing recommendations for adaptations where deemed necessary. Content Methodology: The study is divided into seven chapters. Subsequent to the introduction, the global development of wind power, its major drivers and trends are discussed briefly serving as a backdrop to the study. The third chapter introduces CWPP and its activities along with the current status of project implementation. The fourth and fifth chapter form the main body of this study. Beginning with the current picture of energy supply and demand, the fourth chapter goes on to introduce the relevant government authorities in charge of Chinese renewable energy policy. Since the basis for wind power development is government support, a detailed examination of renewable energy policy in China is given. The policies governing the wind power sector are reviewed in order to explore the origins of the current boom of the wind power industry. The fifth chapter offers an in-depth discussion of wind power in China, including wind power potential, current status of the market and future development as well as the situation with regards to wind power equipment manufacturers and project developers. In the sixth chapter, major determinants that have the potential to negatively affect the perspectives of wind power development in China are identified and discussed. As a conclusion, chapter seven offers recommendations for the realignment of CWPP activities according to the actual needs of the market. A series of expert interviews was conducted within the scope of the study. The experts interviewed included representatives of relevant government authorities, foreign and domestic wind turbine manufacturers, component suppliers, project developers, industry associations, universities, research institutes, consultancies, CDM agencies and environmental organizations. These interviews serve as a supplement to the evaluation of secondary literature and online sources so as to guarantee the timeliness and validity of information in the study. In cooperation with the China Electric Power Research Institute (CEPRI) and the Chinese Wind Energy Association (CWEA) the need for wind power-specific training and education for wind power equipment manufacturers and power generation companies was assessed through two separate surveys. In addition, two polls were conducted among wind turbine and component manufacturers at the China Wind Energy Exhibition 2008 in Shanghai and the Wind Power Asia 2008 in Beijing. These polls helped to identify the major challenges for the wind sector's future development in China and contributed to the assessment of the current situation with regard to human resources and qualification.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.INTRODUCTION7 1.1BACKGROUND7 1.2CONTENT METHODOLOGY9 2.THE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT OF WIND POWER10 2.1DEVELOPMENT OF THE GLOBAL WIND POWER MARKET10 2.2DRIVERS AND TRENDS OF WIND POWER DEVELOPMENT12 3.THE GTZ CHINA WIND POWER PROJECT17 4.ENERGY POLICY IN CHINA19 4.1ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND19 4.2RELEVANT PLAYERS IN ENERGY POLICY MAKING22 4.3RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WIND POWER POLICY25 4.3.1THE CONCESSION PROGRAMME AND ORIGINS OF WIND POWER PRICING25 4.3.2THE RENEWABLE ENERGY LAW29 4.3.3INVESTMENT CONDITIONS FINANCIAL INCENTIVES33 5.WIND POWER IN CHINA39 5.1WIND ENERGY RESOURCE CHARACTERISTICS AND DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL39 5.2CURRENT STATUS OF DEVELOPMENT42 5.3MARKET FORECAST45 5.4WIND TURBINE MANUFACTURERS47 5.5WIND TURBINE COMPONENT SUPPLIERS55 5.6PROJECT DEVELOPERS55 5.7PROJECT ECONOMICS56 6.POTENTIAL PITFALLS FOR WIND POWER DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA58 6.1POLICY59 6.2HUMAN RESOURCES60 6.3WIND FARM PERFORMANCE LACK OF TRANSPARENCY63 6.4GRID INTEGRATION64 7.RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE GTZ CHINA WIND POWER PROJECT67 7.1WIND POWER EDUCATION TRAINING68 7.2RD AND TECHNOLOGICAL CAPACITY BUILDING70 7.3INFORMATION SERVICES71 7.4FINAL REMARKS73 Bibliography72Textprobe:Text Sample: Chapter 6.1, Potential Pitfalls for Wind Power Development in China: Wind power in China faces a series of adverse outer influences at present. Most of these are not expected to constitute insurmountable barriers to wind power development, but will impact the pace of development nonetheless. The financial crisis on Wall Street that has spread to financial markets around the world, spurs serious worries of a global economic downturn. The renewable energy sector is hit particularly hard by a deterioration of investor confidence, since many observers assume that renewable energy development same as environmental concerns will be shelved until the economies show signs of recovery. The wind industry in China will not be exempt from negative effects of the crisis. Since raising capital will prove difficult in this situation, planned IPOs will be moved back and investments may be deferred. The fall in oil prices in fear of a recession contributes to increase the discrepancy in profitability between conventional power and renewable energy projects (decrease the relative competitiveness of renewables). The rise in coal prices and the credit squeeze further draws liquidity from the market for project development. Rising prices in raw materials drive the increase in wind turbine prices. However, wind power development in China also faces a series of challenges of intrinsic nature. The tremendous pace at which the Chinese wind power sector has been evolving entails an inherent risk of undesirable developments. Reports of wind turbines not performing as expected or even collapsing, lack of due diligence in planning of wind farms, serial production errors in turbines, the counterfeiting of components. These incidents are often portrayed as isolated, but may be representative of greater erroneous trends in the industry. Government regulation will be essential in addressing the issues at stake and preventing them from becoming fundamental barriers to future wind power development. Policy: As mentioned before, government renewable energy and wind power policy have been the single most important driver for wind power development around the world. This is also true for China. A combination of wind power development targets, mandatory market share requirements, economic incentives and protective policies have created a burgeoning wind power market and a thriving domestic industry. Nevertheless, in order to prevent a bust from following the boom, a few adjustments of the policy framework are necessary in order to provide for sustained wind power development. Restrictive government policies, particularly with regard to wind power pricing and foreign investment, pose a serious barrier to the exploitation of a diverse set of investment sources for wind power development in China. Obstructive regulations for FDI, especially with regard to debt financing and CDM project ownership, serve as deterrents for foreign investors. Modes for participation in the regulatory process are unclear, as are rights to appeal regulatory decisions. The lack of a clear pricing policy guaranteeing secure and attractive profit margins for wind power projects has kept many potential investors at bay. Limited access to proper financing and insurance further discourages private and foreign investors. The development of a competitive power sector is also impeded by the dominance of state-owned power generators, who retain strong and often opaque links to state funds, while their levels of profit, subsidies and cross-subsidisation are undisclosed. The government has largely recognized the challenge to open up the market to private and foreign investors. Movement towards further improvement of the policy framework governing wind power is visible. Recently, the government has been addressing many of the most important barriers impeding wind power development. Wind power pricing policy has been slowly moving towards a more predictable and lucrative system of fixed feed-in tariffs. Government action has been taken to alleviate deficiencies regarding reliable wind resource data and the innovation capability of the domestic industry. According to some observers, CDM regulations are expected to be loosened in favour of foreign investors. Still, a number of challenges remain to be addressed, demanding government guidance in order to facilitate sustained, long-term development of wind power in China: - Enforce efforts to provide adequate wind power education and training programmes to ease the human resource deficit. - Establish strong mandatory wind turbine certification standards and support capacity building in the field of turbine testing, in order to ensure turbine quality/reliability and in the long-run improve global competitiveness of the domestic wind industry. - Facilitate smooth grid integration of wind power by: - strengthening the national power grid and interregional transmission capacity, taking into consideration the integration of wind power in the design of grid expansion plans by establishing management regulations and technical specifications to integrate wind power into grid planning; - mapping out comprehensive wind power development plans on national and provincial level in consultation with the grid companies, taking into account construction of other power generation capacity, (interregional) transmission capacity as well as the specific requirements of wind power grid integration; - redoubling research efforts with regard to the analysis of the influence of extensive deployment of wind power on the operation and management of the power grid, intensifying studies on accurate wind power forecasting to allow for effective dispatch of power and establishing a national grid code for wind turbines to ensure maximum electricity output of wind farms. - Tweak FDI, CDM and wind power policies to allow for more diversity in investment and enhance the efficiency of the power sector by creating a fair and open market. Clarify wind power pricing policies and facilitate access to government subsidized bank loans. - Increase transparency within the wind industry and power sector, e.g. with regard to information on wind farm energy output and turbine availability, in order to facilitate competition and intra-industry learning processes, enable timely identification of challenges and build investor confidence. Information transparency is also necessary to improve energy demand and (wind power) supply forecasts and thus provide for proper dispatch of power plants.