Suchergebnisse

Intro -- Contents -- 1 Input-Output Economics (1951) -- 2 Input-Output Analysis (1985) -- 3 An Alternative to Aggregation in Input-Output Analysis and National Accounts (1967) -- 4 Wages, Profits, Prices, and Taxes (1947) -- 5 Domestic Production and Foreign Trade: The American Capital Position Reexamined (1953) -- 6 Factor Proportions and the Structure of American Trade: Further Theoretical and Empirical Analysis (1956) -- 7 Multiregional Input-Output Analysis (1963) -- 8 The Structure of Development (1963) -- 9 The Economic Effects of Disarmament (1961) -- 10 The Economic Impact-Industrial and Regional-of an Arms Cut (1965) -- 11 Environmental Repercussions and the Economic Structure: An Input-Output Approach (1970) -- 12 National Income, Economic Structure, and Environmental Externalities (1973) -- 13 Air Pollution and the Economic Structure: Empirical Results of Input-Output Computations (1972) -- 14 The Dynamic Inverse (1970) -- 15 Structure of the World Economy: Outline of a Simple Input-Output Formulation (1974) -- 16 Population Growth and Economic Development: Illustrative Projections (1979) -- 17 The Distribution of Work and Income (1982) -- 18 The Growth of Maritime Traffic and the Future of World Ports (1979) -- 19 Technological Change, Prices, Wages, and Rates of Return on Capital in the U.S. Economy (1985) -- 20 An Information System for Policy Decisions in a Modern Economy (1979) -- Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- Q -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W.

This note looks at estimates of the current scale of the output gap in the UK and at the factors that affect estimates of the trend rate of growth. These issues are central to the debate on macroeconomic policy, both in the short and the long run. The speed at which the economy returns to full capacity, along with the scale of the output gap, will be important factors affecting average growth over the next five years. In the longer term, trend growth at full capacity is not immutable, but rather depends upon the rate of labour augmenting technical progress and the growth of the labour force. In the medium term these factors can be added to by temporary bursts of capital augmenting technical progress and by changes in the user cost of capital that may change the optimal capital-output ratio. Other factors, such as the cost of materials, also affect potential output. Over the past few months there has also been a significant rise in oil prices, and we judge this to have a strong permanent component which will reduce trend growth in the short term and trend output in the longer term. Its implications are more fully discussed in Barrell, Delannoy and Holland in this Review.

Summary
We study the historical trends in the coverage of the related topics growth and stability in the field of macroeconomics. It is argued that over the past 25 years research on growth has quantitatively dominated research on output variability. The article seeks to make a contribution to an integrated study of output growth and output volatility. This integration builds on ideas proposed by Fischer Black. We clarify Black's contribution and show that the variability of output depends on the level of output as well as on the growth rate of output. The study then focuses on the experience of OECD countries since 1970. Based on statistical estimates we document the minimal (or efficient) level of output variability that a country could have achieved over the last four decades. This normative benchmark is similar to the notion of a tradeoff between portfolio return and portfolio variance known from the field of finance. A country's excessive level of output variability suggests necessary improvements in the design of stabilization and regulation policies. The international comparison of countries based on this approach indicates that many (although not all) of the high growth economies have experienced output variability significantly above the efficient level.