Suchergebnisse

CHAPTER IN A NEW CHINESE DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT SUGGESTS THAT, FOR CHINA, A POPULATION PLAN IS THE STARTING POINT FOR DRAFTING THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN. THE 3 COMPONENT TARGETS OF A POPULATION PLAN ARE IDENTIFIED AND DISCUSSED: TOTAL POP., BIRTHRATE, RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE. METHODS FOR DEVISING THE PLAN AND GATHERING NECESSARY DATA ARE PRESENTED.

The 1930's & 1960's were both important turning points in demographic history. An attempt is made to see any r between the experiences of these 2 periods. Theoretical explanations for population trends in this century are analyzed, & a hypothetical explanation for the decline in fertility proposed. Fertility declined almost uninterruptedly in almost all developed nations during the first 3 decades of the 19th century. The transition theory tries to explain the long-term development of fertility & mortality. The transition theory, developed by Warren Thompson, is a modern formulation saying that every population passes through a number of stages in its quantitative development of births & deaths. The final phase of the transition theory, which is that phase of declining fertility, is of interest. The relationship between the demographic transition & social structure or between fertility & SS is discussed. 2 approaches can be distinguished in the sociological study of fertility: a macro-sociological & a micro-sociological approach. Mechanisms influencing individual families in their decisions on reproductive behavior may come from a number of different channels. The influence of SS on fertility is exerted by a complicated mechanism; it is not only a question of income. As for the future development of fertility, there are sufficient indications to make the assumption that the process of demographic transition is near its end; differences in fertility due to religion, region, SS & linguistic criteria are disappearing. The consequences for population policy seem to be an aim at a decrease in fertility. R. Lent.