Forecasting New Zealand's real GDP
In: New Zealand economic papers, Band 34, Heft 2, S. 159-181
ISSN: 1943-4863
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In: New Zealand economic papers, Band 34, Heft 2, S. 159-181
ISSN: 1943-4863
SSRN
Working paper
In: Economic affairs: journal of the Institute of Economic Affairs, Band 36, Heft 1, S. 88-90
ISSN: 1468-0270
In: Economic affairs: journal of the Institute of Economic Affairs, Band 36, Heft 2, S. 221-223
ISSN: 1468-0270
In: FRB of New York Staff Report No. 950, Rev. December 2022
SSRN
Working paper
In: Applied Economics, Band 42, Heft 11, S. 1397-1401
This paper examines the time series properties of real GDP in the Euro area (EU 11), both prior to and after the adoption of the Euro in January 1999. We employ the relatively recent "optimal approximation" band pass filter developed by Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003) in order to identify a Euro-zone business cycle. We also utilise two alternative assumptions regarding the behaviour of the trend component of Euro area real GDP. The empirical results suggest that the single currency experiment appears to have reduced trend growth in the Euro zone, both ex-ante during the Maastricht nominal convergence phase, and also ex-post, during the period 2001Q1 to 2005Q4. With respect to cyclical behaviour, we identify a very robust measure of the Euro zone business cycle in the post 1994 period which does not appear to be sensitive to the particular assumption made regarding the trend rate of growth of real GDP. This type of result should facilitate a more accurate assessment of the extent to which individual countries and groups of countries are converged with respect to the Euro area business cycle.
In: Scottish journal of political economy: the journal of the Scottish Economic Society, Band 66, Heft 3, S. 384-403
ISSN: 1467-9485
AbstractThis paper employs Hansen's (1999) panel threshold regression model [Journal of Econometrics 39 (1999) 345–68] based on a time series dataset of 109 countries from 1960 to 2007 to investigate the threshold relationship between the change in real GDP per capita and the consumption size (consumption‐income ratio, APC). The results show that the consumption level should not exceed the 49.68% threshold of real GDP per capita for each country regardless of the income level. Also, the relationship between the change in real GDP per capita and the consumption size seems to have 'Armey curve' or 'inverted‐U shape' characteristic. In order to promote real GDP growth, our results suggest that the high‐income, low‐APC countries should encourage more consumption while the low‐income, high‐APC countries should encourage more saving.
In: Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Band 66, Heft 3, S. 384-403
SSRN
In: China's Economic and Social Problems, S. 85-86
In: Working paper series 254
In: Background study for the evaluation of the ECB's monetary policy strategy
In: Economic affairs: journal of the Institute of Economic Affairs, Band 35, Heft 2, S. 286-298
ISSN: 1468-0270
In: Journal of development economics, Band 38, Heft 2, S. 371-382
ISSN: 0304-3878
In: China economic review, Band 15, Heft 1, S. 1-24
ISSN: 1043-951X
In: IMF Working Paper No. 2022/076
SSRN
In: Journal of international economics, Band 62, Heft 1, S. 83-106
ISSN: 0022-1996