Suchergebnisse

Economists have developed models in which individuals form expectations of key variables in a 'rational' manner such that these expectations are consistent with actual economic environments. Professor Sheffrin first explores the logical foundation of the concept and the case for employing it in economic analysis. Subsequent chapters investigate its use in macroeconomics, financial markets, and microeconomics. A final chapter assesses its impact on theoretical and empirical work in economics and policy arenas. The author argues that while rational expectations are still central to macroeconomic policy debates, fully workable models have not yet been devised, and offers reasons for the lack of practical and conceptual progress. All chapters of the second edition have been revised or expanded. New sections inter alia include material on learning, the rationality of reported expectations, alternative recent developments explicitly or implicitly using rational expectations, new tests of the Lucas critique, and models of noise trading. The book is written in a non-technical fashion for beginning graduate students and non-specialists

Cover -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Part I. Introduction -- 1 Introduction and Summary -- Expectations and economic theory -- The role of expectations in economics as a social science -- Outline of the theory -- Part II. Methodology -- 2 The Misesian Context -- Introduction -- The methodology of Ludwig von Mises -- Schutz and Hayek -- 3 Schutz -- 4 Hayek -- Part III. Theory -- 5 Language Games and Economic Theory -- Introduction -- Language games -- The economy as a network of language games -- Coordination does not require common rules -- Natural selection of language games -- 6 Expectations -- Introduction -- Entrepreneurship -- Cognitive expectations -- Acognitive expectations -- Hayekian expectations -- Correlating cognitive and acognitive expectations -- 7 Big Players -- The general theory of Big Players -- Modeling Big Players -- Big Players in asset markets -- Modeling asset prices in the presence of Big Players -- Herding and contra-herding as error duration -- Part IV. Applications -- 8 Big Players in Czarist Russia -- The policies of Bunge and Vyshnegradsky -- The ruble and GARCH -- R/S analysis -- 9 The Angular Distribution of Asset Returns in Delay Space -- The compass rose -- Hypothesis testing with theta histograms -- A simple simulation of X-skewing -- Big Players induce X-skewing -- 10 Herding in Money Demand -- Money demand and the theory of Big Players -- The Federal Reserve as a Big Player -- Discussion and conclusion -- Coda -- How this book relates to the emerging new orthodoxy in economics -- Some suggestions for further work -- Appendixes -- 1 What is Verstehen? -- 2 What did Wittgenstein really mean? -- 3 An elementary set-theoretic model of language games -- 4 Notes on reflexivity -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Name Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- J -- K.

"Several areas in economics today have unprecedented significance and vitality. Most people would agree that stabilization policy ranks with the highest of these. Continuing inflation and periodic serious acceleration of inflation combined with high and secularly rising unemployment combine to give the area high priority. This book brings us up to date on an extremely lively discussion involving the role of expectations, and more particularly rational expectations, in the conduct of stabilization policy. . . . Anyone interested in the role of government in economics should read this important

A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program

Recently economists have more and more focussed on scenarios in which agents` views of the world may be erroneous. These notes introduce the concept of perfect forecasting rules which provide best least-squares predictions along the evolution of an economic system. The framework for nonparametric adaptive learning schemes is developed and it is argued that plausible learning schemes should aim at estimating a perfect forecasting rule taking into account the correct feedback structure of an economy. A link is provided between the traditional rational-expectations view and recent behavioristic approaches.