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Amid the Kondratiev cycle's downward slope movement and global pandemic, a recession in many countries is Likely to Lead to a deep long-term economic crisis. The aim of the article is to study the simplest recession indicators in developing and developed countries, economic-recovery measures, and economic development scenarios. The objectives of the paper are to study current economic situations in different countries, including Russia; identify measures to prevent a recession in developing and developed countries; evaluate possible economic development scenarios with regard to the cyclical dynamics in the current climate. The authors used methods of analysis, modelling, monitoring of major economic indicators based on the data of past recessions and other crises. The results of the research show different scenarios of economic growth depending on the number of Covid-19 cases and the effectiveness of government's responses to the pandemic; a correlation between monetary and fiscal policies in overcoming crisis; monetary policy priorities necessary for economic recovery; problems and prospects of monetary and fiscal policy implementation. The authors concluded that GDP, unemployment, and inflation rate are key indicators for the evaluation of the current and future money, credit, and production-related events. Proactive measures ensure a smoother average economic growth. Both monetary and fiscal policy have advantages and disadvantages. Proactive measures, in particular, inevitably cause two time lags: in the reaction to a recession and in the effectiveness of implemented measures. The governments and central banks must be proactive in overcoming the economic recession and providing support to the citizens. ; На фоне понижательной волны цикла Н.Д. Кондратьева и в условиях пандемии рецессия во многих странах может перейти в глубокий и долгосрочный экономический кризис. Цель статьи - описать наиболее понятные индикаторы рецессии в развивающихся и развитых странах, меры, принимаемые по предотвращению рецессии и оценить сценарии развития экономики. Для реализации данной цели авторы выполнили следующие задачи: исследовали современное состояние экономик разных стран, в том числе России; определили меры по предотвращению рецессии в развитых и развивающихся странах; рассмотрели сценарии развития экономики в современных условиях с учетом циклического характера экономической динамики. Использованы методы анализа, моделирования, мониторинга основных экономических показателей на основе ретроспективных данных, охватывающих несколько рецессий и аналогии. В результате исследования определены: пути развития экономики в зависимости от количества заболевших COVID-19 и эффективности государственных мер; взаимосвязь денежно-кредитной и фискальной политик при выходе из кризиса; приоритеты денежно-кредитной политики для восстановления экономики; проблемы и перспективы применения мер денежно-кредитной и фискальной политик. Сделан вывод, что показатели динамики ВВП, безработицы, инфляции являются полезными ориентирами для оценки текущих и будущих событий в области денежных средств, кредитов и производства. В современных условиях определена необходимость проактивных мер для более сглаженного среднего роста экономик. Каждая из двух описанных (монетарной или фискальной) политик имеет свои преимущества и недостатки. В частности, при выполнении проактивных мер в монетарной политике всегда наблюдается два временных лага: в реакции на рецессию и во времени влияния принимаемых мер. Для борьбы с рецессией в экономике правительствам и центральным банкам следует быть проактивными, что наиболее важно для населения.

In this article the authors question the effectiveness of Russia's government policy aimed at transition from demand economy to economy of supply. The authors argue that Russian financial policymakers incorrectly treat cyclical budget deficit as structural. Such approach creates an additional barrier to an aggregate demand growth in Russia's economy, which still remains in recession. Revival of financial policymakers' trend to excessive accumulation in the National Welfare Fund, post-election cuts in budget social spending and infrastructure investment together with extremely high interest rates pose a considerable threat to the national security. Revealing the effect of restrictive fiscal and monetary policies on deepening the recession, the authors identify the growth dilemma for Russia's economy — either an inevitable halt or a radical shift to a new quality.

The problems of development of investment activity in the Republic of Moldova for the period from 2008 to 2016 are considered. The volumes and dynamics of foreign investments are analyzed, and the rating of investment activity of the Republic of Moldova on a global scale is given. The problems are investigated and the main ways of increasing the country's investment attractiveness in the conditions of a modern political recession are outlined.

The types of the unstable state of the macroeconomic environment affecting the strategy of forming government and business. Applied to high-tech industries studied forms of public-private partnerships. The structure of the organizational problems that arise in the creation and development of effective public-private partnership whose solution minimizes the negative effects of environmental factors. ; Рассмотрены виды нестабильного состояния макроэкономической среды, влияющие на формирование стратегии развития государства и бизнеса. Применительно к высокотехнологичным отраслям экономики исследованыформыгосударственно-частногопартнерства. Предложенаструктураорганизационныхзадач, возникающихвсфересозданияи эффективногоразвитиягосударственно-частногопартнерства, решение которыхминимизируетдействиенегативныхфактороввнешнейсреды

Cracks in the System: World Economy Under Stress"" explores the rapidly changing institutional and policymaking landscape around a financial crisis that now threatens a deep and prolonged global recession. The lead article looks at how the world got into the mess and what to do about it, both now and over the medium term. Other articles review options for changing the rules of world finance, examine the case for modernizing the way countries coordinate their policies, and try to draw some lessons from past financial crises. The ""other crisis"" of high food and fuel prices is also assessed, as

This article explores the concept of macroeconomic stability originated from the theory of general economic equilibrium (GEE) by L. Walras. Modern macroeconomic models that do not contradict the GEE, a implement the principles of consistency of micro- and macroeconomic analysis, the interrelation of markets, and the effectiveness of market mechanism. Economic fluctuations generated by shocks are in dialectical unity with the state of equilibrium. The aim of macroeconomic policy is to maintain equilibrium (macroeconomic stability) through inflation targeting and effective public debt management. Within the framework of this policy a number of goals are met including the control over inflationary expectations, strengthening confidence in the central bank, and overcoming inflation. However, low inflation rates can produce liquidity traps, thus causing a need to adjust monetary policy and develop its new instruments. At the same time, the global crises of the 21st century, the Great Recession of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic, prompts to re-evaluate the contradictions between the theoretical concept of equilibrium and the real state of the economy, as well as measures needed to stabilize it during a recession. The policy of overcoming the crisis in 2020 includes large-scale discretionary fiscal and monetary stimulus according to Keynesian recipes, in the absence of which the loss of jobs, closure of enterprises, and lack of financial stability are inevitable. The gap between theory and reality, as it happened during the Great Depression almost a hundred years ago, once again raises the questions of further development of macroeconomics. The article may be of interest to teachers and students interested in the prospects for the development of scientific knowledge in this area.

Article is devoted to the review of formation and decline of behavioralism paradigm in political science. The author begins the analysis with critical consideration of the scientific concepts preceding emergence of modernist empiricism within which there is a behavioral analysis. Further the researcher traces formation behaviorism in the social disciplines: formation model in psychology, release of the theory out of limits of pure psychology and transferring ideas in sociology and political science. The author analyzes inquiries to the scientific theory by behavioralism. He opens the principles of behavioralism as paradigm in political science. The author presents the conceptual and contextual factors promoting recession of popularity behavioralism in political science and submits methodological restrictions approach. The author states the main claims of critics to this research approach and explains the reasons decline this paradigm. At the same time the methodological reflection of behavioralism which has followed recession of his popularity is reflected in work. The author opens the principles of the new methodological direction – post-behavioralism and the position of modern representatives of the behavioral analysis. ; Статья посвящена обзору становления и упадка бихевиоралистской парадигмы в политологии. Автор начинает анализ с критического рассмотрения научных концепций, предшествующих появлению модернистского эмпиризма, в рамках которого возникает поведенческий анализ. Далее исследователь прослеживает путь становления бихевиоризма в русле обществоведческих дисциплин: формирование модели в психологии, выход теории за пределы чистой психологии и перенесение ее идей сначала в социологию, а после и в политологию. Автор анализирует гносеологические запросы бихевиорализма к научной теории и раскрывает принципы бихевиорализма как политологической парадигмы. В работе представлены концептуальные и контекстуальные факторы, способствовавшие спаду популярности бихевиорализма в политической науке, рассматриваются его методологические ограничения. Автор излагает основные претензии критиков к данному исследовательскому подходу и объясняет причины упадка данной парадигмы. Вместе с тем, в работе отражена и методологическая рефлексия бихевиорализма, последовавшая за спадом его популярности, раскрыты принципы нового направления – пост-бихевиорализма, а также изложена позиция современных представителей поведенческого анализа по некотором методологическим вопросам.

Economic development and socioeconomic cohesion have always been an object of scientific research. In particular, this issue had become a focus of attention after EU enlargement in 2004 and Great Recession in 2007–2009. The above changes have given way to a certain slowdown in economic growth in most EU countries along with triggering a range of divergence processes between EU countries and regions. As a response to situation, the EU offered a Europe 2020 strategy, in which smart growth was mentioned as one of critical instruments to deal with increasing menaces. The objective of the study is to evaluate the progress of the main smart growth indicators (investment in research and development (R&D), employment rate and share of population obtaining tertiary education) in the EU over the period 2001–2017 within the framework of the economic cohesion concept. The paper seeks to explore the EU from different perspectives. First, the EU new member states (EU-10) and the old ones (EU-14) were compared. Second, the EU countries were divided by economic development level (calculated by GDP per capita in PPP): highly developed (H-7), medium developed (M-7) and less developed (L-7) countries. Finally, aggregate cohesion indices of all three smart growth indicators were calculated for the entire EU (EU-28). The research findings have revealed some interesting trends. First, each smart growth indicator's progress depends on countries' economic development level. Aggregate values for more developed countries (EU-14, H-7 and G-3) are always higher than the EU average (EU-28) and aggregate values for less developed economies are basically lower. Second, cohesion progress of smart growth indicators was influenced by economic recession in 2007–2009. It is argued that cohesion is evident in times of economic growth, but its progress ceases or divergence might occur in case of economic hazards. However, despite the expanding cohesion between the new and the old member states, a gap between certain groups of countries is even growing. This is clearly evident when the EU member states are divided into groups subject to the level of their economic development

Economic development and socioeconomic cohesion have always been an object of scientific research. In particular, this issue had become a focus of attention after EU enlargement in 2004 and Great Recession in 2007–2009. The above changes have given way to a certain slowdown in economic growth in most EU countries along with triggering a range of divergence processes between EU countries and regions. As a response to situation, the EU offered a Europe 2020 strategy, in which smart growth was mentioned as one of critical instruments to deal with increasing menaces. The objective of the study is to evaluate the progress of the main smart growth indicators (investment in research and development (R&D), employment rate and share of population obtaining tertiary education) in the EU over the period 2001–2017 within the framework of the economic cohesion concept. The paper seeks to explore the EU from different perspectives. First, the EU new member states (EU-10) and the old ones (EU-14) were compared. Second, the EU countries were divided by economic development level (calculated by GDP per capita in PPP): highly developed (H-7), medium developed (M-7) and less developed (L-7) countries. Finally, aggregate cohesion indices of all three smart growth indicators were calculated for the entire EU (EU-28). The research findings have revealed some interesting trends. First, each smart growth indicator's progress depends on countries' economic development level. Aggregate values for more developed countries (EU-14, H-7 and G-3) are always higher than the EU average (EU-28) and aggregate values for less developed economies are basically lower. Second, cohesion progress of smart growth indicators was influenced by economic recession in 2007–2009. It is argued that cohesion is evident in times of economic growth, but its progress ceases or divergence might occur in case of economic hazards. However, despite the expanding cohesion between the new and the old member states, a gap between certain groups of countries is even growing. This is clearly evident when the EU member states are divided into groups subject to the level of their economic development

The article reveals the conceptual defects of the designed and currently law-supported budget three-year plan — 2021–2023. Among them, the author includes the authorities' desire to continue using a rigid budget rule and the implementation of tax maneuvers. The author argues that there is a direct link between the effects of the budget rule and deceleration of the GDP growth in Russia. Overcoming the country-specific recession and the problem of excessive focus of the Russian economy on natural resource extraction should arguably be driven by an increased share of the government spending on its diversification, which requires a substantial relaxation or cancelling of the budget rule. The author concludes that the tax maneuver presents a barrier to curing the «Dutch disease» of the country's economy and therefore requires serious corrections while preserving excise duties on oil and gas exports and to the contrary, reducing the natural resource extraction tax rates.

ТРЕНДЫ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОЙ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ : ВЫБОР ПРИОРИТЕТОВ И ИНСТРУМЕНТОВ / С. Н. БОЛЬШАКОВ, А. Н. ГРИГОРЬЕВ // Менеджер. - 2021. - №2. - С. 24-30. Аннотация. В статье выявлены и проанализированы стратегические направления государственной антикризисной политики в условиях пандемии. На основе анализа инструментов экономической политики стран мира показаны общие приемы и инструменты экономической политики. Определены тренды государственной антикризисной экономической политики. В статье формулируется вывод о формирующейся глобальной экономической рецессии, активной роли государственных регуляторов в поддержке затухающей экономической активности в условиях пандемии. TRENDS IN STATE ECONOMIC POLICY: SELECTION OF PRIORITIES AND TOOLS / S. N. BOLSHAKOV, A. N. GRIGORIEV // Manager. - 2021.- №2. - P. 24-30. Abstract. The article identifies and analyzes the strategic directions of the state anti-crisis policy in the context of a pandemic. In the article, based on the analysis of the instruments of economic policy of the countries of the world, general techniques and instruments of economic policy are revealed. The trends of the state anti-crisis economic policy are revealed. The article formulates a conclusion about the emerging global economic recession, the active role of government regulators in supporting diminishing economic activity in the context of a pandemic.

The article considers the theoretical legacy of Friedrich Engels within the context of the crisis transformation of the neoliberal world order at the beginning of the twenty-first century. The process of monopolization putting end to planlessness, which Engels noted in the early 1890s, resulted in a global production system organized within global production networks under control of giant transnational corporations. Further development of the stock exchange and fictitious capital noted by Engels more than a hundred years ago led to the dominance of the global finance capital which became the cause of financialization. In the context of the global recession, competition for sources of raw materials and sales markets is intensifying due to the geopolitical and economic rise of China and other large countries of the periphery which claim for redivision of geo-economic and geopolitical map. The unfolding of the late capitalism's contradictions restores the socio-economic relations similar to imperialism at the beginning of the twentieth century and thus reproduces, with a new quality, the causes of the First World war, the military and political aspects of which were accurately predicted by Engels a quarter of a century before its beginning.

This article is about developing a sociological approach towards generational cohort analysis. The previously examined generation of millennials is divided into two age cohorts. A specific group of so-called "3S" millennials ("smartphones", "social media", "slump in the economy") is distinguished. This younger generation entered their period of adulthood starting in the year of 2008, which was marked by continuous economic recession and a broad dissemination of new technologies and digital consumer services. Data was gathered from the annual Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS–HSE) for the years 1994–2018. The obtained results show a divide within the millennial generation, measured by a multiplicity of social indicators along with the preservation of many inter-generational differences. In part one of the paper published in this issue of the journal, we reveal that the younger "3S" generation of millennials has been dealing with new digital technologies since their early adolescent years. They are better educated, have more educated parents, and often postpone important decisions like marriage, first pregnancy, having children, employment in the labor market. Many intra- and intergenerational differences remain stable during the observation period when controlling for age and other standard variables.