Regime change and revolutionary entrepreneurs
In: American political science review, Band 104, Heft 3, S. 446-466
ISSN: 0003-0554
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In: American political science review, Band 104, Heft 3, S. 446-466
ISSN: 0003-0554
World Affairs Online
In: American political science review, Band 104, Heft 3, S. 446-467
ISSN: 0003-0554
In: American political science review, Band 104, Heft 3, S. 446-466
ISSN: 1537-5943
I study how a revolutionary vanguard might use violence to mobilize a mass public. The mechanism is informational-the vanguard uses violence to manipulate population member's beliefs about the level of antigovernment sentiment in society. The model has multiple equilibria, one equilibrium in which there may be revolution and another in which there is certain not to be. In the former, structural factors influence expected mobilization, whereas in the latter they do not. Hence, the model is consistent with structural factors influencing the likelihood of revolution in some societies but not others, offering a partial defense of structural accounts from common critiques. The model also challenges standard arguments about the role of revolutionary vanguards. The model is consistent with vanguard violence facilitating mobilization and even sparking spontaneous uprisings. However, it also predicts selection effects-an active vanguard emerges only in societies that are already coordinated on a participatory equilibrium. Hence, a correlation between vanguard activity and mass mobilization may not constitute evidence for the causal efficacy of vanguards-be it through creating focal points, providing selective incentives, or communicating information. Adapted from the source document.
In: The national interest, Heft 86, S. 67-72
ISSN: 0884-9382
World Affairs Online
In: Foreign Pressure and the Politics of Autocratic Survival, S. 211-249
In: Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper No. 14-1
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Working paper
In: International security, Band 38, Heft 3, S. 184-195
ISSN: 0162-2889
In: NBER Working Paper No. w12405
SSRN
In: The Open Economy and its Enemies, S. 216-246
In: Routledge/City University of Hong Kong Southeast Asia series
Introduction to Myanmar's Paradoxical Regime Change -- Myanmar's Trial and Error Praetorian Regime -- The Origins of Contemporary Myanmar -- The Evolution of Myanmar's Military Regime -- A Disciplined Society for a Disciplined Democracy -- The International Dimension of Myanmar's Regime Change -- Myanmar's Way to Democracy.
World Affairs Online
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This paper analyzes to what extent changes in monetary policy regimes influence the business cycle in a small open economy and investigates the impact of policy breaks on the estimation procedure. We estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model on Swedish data, explicitly taking into account the monetary regime change in 1993, from exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting. The results suggest that monetary policy reacted strongly to exchange rate movements in the former, and mostly to inflation in the latter. The external sector plays an important role in the economy, and the international transmission mechanism is significantly affected by the choice of exchange rate regime. A counterfactual experiment that applies the inflation targeting policy rule on the disturbances from the exchange rate targeting period suggests that such a policy would have led to higher output and employment, but also to a depreciated currency, higher inflation, and a more volatile economy. We also present evidence that ignoring the break in the estimation leads to spurious results for both the parameters associated with monetary policy as well as those that are policy-independent.
BASE
This paper analyzes to what extent changes in monetary policy regimes influence the business cycle in a small open economy and investigates the impact of policy breaks on the estimation procedure. We estimate a DSGE model on Swedish data, explicitly taking into account the monetary regime change in 1993, from exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting. The results suggest that monetary policy reacted strongly to exchange rate movements in the former, and mostly to inflation in the latter. The external sector plays an important role in the economy and the international transmission mechanism is significantly affected by the choice of exchange rate regime. A counterfactual experiment that applies the inflation targeting policy rule on the disturbances from the exchange rate targeting period suggests that such a policy would have led to higher output and employment, but also to a depreciated currency, higher inflation and a more volatile economy. We also show evidence that ignoring the break in the estimation leads to spurious results for both the parameters associated with monetary policy as well as those that are policy-independent.
BASE
In: International security, Band 38, Heft 3, S. 184-195
ISSN: 1531-4804