The domestic and international transmission mechanism of fiscal policy shocks are analysed in the United States and in Germany. Using a Bayesian VAR approach, we find that in both of these countries a fiscal expansion is associated with increases in output as well as in private consumption and investment. The terms of trade, which affect the international transmission of fiscal policy shocks, depreciate in response to a fiscal expansion, thus transferring some of the increased domestic purchasing power abroad. A US government spending shock is expansionary for all non-US G7 members. A German government spending shock is expansionary for most, but not all European economies, both within and outside the euro area. The dynamics of the BVAR can be rationalised using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where heterogeneous households and firms face borrowing constraints.
What factors might explain the cross-country variations in COVID-19 public performances and what lessons can be drawn to be better-prepared for future pandemics? This study focuses on the effects of policy stringency on COVID-19 public health outcomes to gain insights into national-level state responses to COVID-19 and the conditions for their effectiveness. Using data from 136 countries comprising 91.4% of the global population, we find that more stringent policies lead to lower infection and death rates. More importantly, the negative effects of restrictive policies on infection and death rates are moderated by political trust and democracy levels, possibly through the mechanism of popular compliance with government policies. Under conditions of higher political trust and lower democracy levels, the policy effects on infection and death rates are greater. However, while the results suggest the importance of policy stringency and political trust, we should not draw the conclusion that authoritarian political systems are more conducive to policy effectiveness. When comparing the moderating effects of political trust and democracy, political trust is more important as a facilitating factor. Therefore, in addition to making scientifically-supported policies, fostering political trust should be an important goal for governments to be better prepared for future pandemics.
The Gnassingbé clan has ruled the country since 1967. The demand for political alternance, initiated by institutional and electoral reforms, constituted the major contentious issue between the government and the challengers of the Gnassingbé regime throughout the survey period. The legislative elections of 20 December 2018, boycotted by the major opposition parties, resulted in an easy victory of the ruling party. The first local elections since more than 30 years took finally place on 30 June 2019 and resulted in the victory of the ruling party. Shortly afterwards, in February 2020, the President won also the disputed presidential elections and even consolidated his power, assisted by the loyal army and security services. The outbreak of the Corona epidemic in Togo in April and the subsequent economic recession may have contributed to limit popular protest against the Gnassingbé regime. The human rights record of the government has improved but remains poor. Despite undeniable improvements to the framework and appearance of the regime's key institutions during the review period, democracy remains far from complete. However, the international community, notably Togo's African peers, the AU and ECOWAS, followed a 'laissez-faire' approach in the interests of regional stability and their national interests in dealing with Togo. Economic growth remained stable at about 5% per annum (before Corona). Public investment in infrastructure and increases in agricultural productivity, notably of export crops, had been the key drivers of economic growth. However, growth remains vulnerable to external shocks and the climate and has not been inclusive. Positive growth was overshadowed by increasing inter-personal and regional inequality as well as an increase in extreme poverty. Moreover, money-laundering, illegal money transfers and trafficking grew alarmingly. The business climate improved considerably nevertheless. ; Author's enhanced version ; RÉSUMÉ: Le clan Gnassingbé dirige le pays depuis 1967. La revendication d'alternance politique, initiée par des réformes institutionnelles et électorales, a constitué le principal litige entre le gouvernement et les challengers du régime Gnassingbé tout au long de la période d'enquête. Les élections législatives du 20 décembre 2018, boycottées par les principaux partis d'opposition, se sont soldées par une victoire facile du parti au pouvoir. Les premières élections locales depuis plus de 30 ans ont finalement eu lieu le 30 juin 2019 et ont abouti à la victoire du parti au pouvoir. Peu de temps après, en février 2020, le président a remporté également les élections présidentielles contestées. Par cela il a même consolidé son pouvoir, aidé par l'armée fidèle et les services de sécurité. Le déclenchement de l'épidémie de Corona au Togo en avril 2020 et la récession économique qui a suivi, ont peut-être contribué à limiter les protestations populaires contre le régime de Gnassingbé. Le bilan du gouvernement en matière de droits humains s'est amélioré, mais reste médiocre. Malgré des améliorations indéniables du cadre et de l'apparence des principales institutions du régime pendant la période à l'examen, la démocratie reste loin d'être achevée. Cependant, la communauté internationale, notamment les pairs africains du Togo, l'UA et la CEDEAO, ont suivi une approche de «laissez-faire» dans l'intérêt de la stabilité régionale et de leurs intérêts nationaux face au Togo. La croissance économique est restée stable à environ 5 % par an (avant Corona). Les investissements publics dans les infrastructures et les augmentations de la productivité agricole, notamment des cultures d'exportation, ont été les principaux moteurs de la croissance économique. Cependant, la croissance reste vulnérable aux chocs externes et au climat, et le développement n'a pas été inclusive. La croissance positive a été éclipsée par l'augmentation des inégalités interpersonnelles et régionales ainsi que par une augmentation de l'extrême pauvreté. En outre, le blanchiment d'argent, les transferts d'argent illégaux et le trafic ont augmenté de façon alarmante. Le climat des affaires s'est néanmoins considérablement amélioré. --- ZUSAMMENFASSUNG: Der Gnassingbé-Clan regiert das Land seit 1967. Die Forderung nach politischer Abwechslung, die durch institutionelle Reformen und Wahlreformen ausgelöst wurde, war das Hauptstreitpunkt zwischen der Regierung und den Herausforderern des Gnassingbé-Regimes während des gesamten Untersuchungszeitraums. Die von den großen Oppositionsparteien boykottierten Parlamentswahlen vom 20. Dezember 2018 führten zu einem leichten Sieg der Regierungspartei. Die ersten Kommunalwahlen seit mehr als 30 Jahren fanden schließlich am 30. Juni 2019 statt und führten zum Sieg der Regierungspartei. Kurz darauf, im Februar 2020, gewann der Präsident auch die umstrittenen Präsidentschaftswahlen. Somit festigte er sogar seine Macht, unterstützt von der loyalen Armee und den Sicherheitsdiensten. Der Ausbruch der Corona-Epidemie in Togo im April und die anschließende wirtschaftliche Rezession haben möglicherweise dazu beigetragen, den Protest der Bevölkerung gegen das Gnassingbé-Regime zu begrenzen. Die Menschenrechtsbilanz der Regierung hat sich verbessert, ist aber weiterhin schlecht. Trotz unbestreitbarer Verbesserungen des Rahmens und des Erscheinungsbilds der wichtigsten Institutionen des Regimes im Berichtszeitraum bleibt die Demokratie bei weitem nicht umfassend. Die internationale Gemeinschaft, insbesondere die afrikanischen Kollegen Faure Gnassingbés in der AU und ECOWAS, verfolgten jedoch im Interesse der regionalen Stabilität und in ihren nationalen Interessen im Umgang mit Togo einen "Laissez-Faire"-Ansatz. Das Wirtschaftswachstum blieb stabil bei etwa 5% pro Jahr (vor Corona). Öffentliche Investitionen in die Infrastruktur und die Steigerung der landwirtschaftlichen Produktivität, insbesondere in Exportkulturen, waren die Haupttreiber des Wirtschaftswachstums. Das Wachstum bleibt jedoch anfällig für externe Schocks und das Klima und war nicht inklusiv. Das positive Wachstum wurde durch die zunehmende zwischenmenschliche und regionale Ungleichheit sowie die Zunahme der extremen Armut überschattet. Darüber hinaus nahmen Geldwäsche, illegale Geldtransfers und Menschenhandel alarmierend zu. Das Geschäftsklima hat sich dennoch erheblich verbessert.
The authors regret a mistake in the acknowledgement section. ; The acknowledgement of the original article should be corrected to: "This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 796287. GQ acknowledges support from the Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI) and the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) (CTQ2016- 79561-P)" ; Peer reviewed
This article considers an implementation of a constructive scheme of collective decision-making, which is based on the Bayesian strategy, for the selection of investment projects to solve the socio-economic problem of Kyiv city. The relevance of this study is that in the absence of an objective and transparent system for selecting investment projects and with a limited regional budget, the government should accept only those investment projects that bring the greatest socio-economic benefits. The main ways of state investment in projects aimed at improving socio-economic problems are considered. Among them are the State Fund for Regional Development and the public-private partnership program. It is determined that a significant advantage of public-private partnership over the State Fund for Regional Development is the ability to attract both public funds and private investment. Three projects aimed at solving the problem were selected from the website of the Kyiv Investment Agency, which operates within the framework of a public-private partnership. The financial indicators of their profitability were calculated – NPV (net present value), IRR (internal rate of return) and PI (profitability index). They are based on the concept of incoming and outgoing payments during the period of project execution. It is determined that these indicators do not always give a consistent result, as well as their main drawback – the inability to assess the social component. According to the methodology of collective decision-making by a group of independent experts in terms of the minimum average probability of error, calculations were made to determine the most attractive project. It is noted that all experts make decisions separately and independently of each other. Recommendations were provided for the selection of a specific project. The study identifies the advantages of this method of project acceptance for investment: objectivity, consistency and transparency. In the future, it is planned to incorporate risks into the decision-making model.The main areas that need improvement were considered, and key ones were selected. The most problematic and urgent is the issue of waste recycling in Kyiv. ; This article considers an implementation of a constructive scheme of collective decision-making, which is based on the Bayesian strategy, for the selection of investment projects to solve the socio-economic problem of Kyiv city. The relevance of this study is that in the absence of an objective and transparent system for selecting investment projects and with a limited regional budget, the government should accept only those investment projects that bring the greatest socio-economic benefits. The main ways of state investment in projects aimed at improving socio-economic problems are considered. Among them are the State Fund for Regional Development and the public-private partnership program. It is determined that a significant advantage of public-private partnership over the State Fund for Regional Development is the ability to attract both public funds and private investment. Three projects aimed at solving the problem were selected from the website of the Kyiv Investment Agency, which operates within the framework of a public-private partnership. The financial indicators of their profitability were calculated – NPV (net present value), IRR (internal rate of return) and PI (profitability index). They are based on the concept of incoming and outgoing payments during the period of project execution. It is determined that these indicators do not always give a consistent result, as well as their main drawback – the inability to assess the social component. According to the methodology of collective decision-making by a group of independent experts in terms of the minimum average probability of error, calculations were made to determine the most attractive project. It is noted that all experts make decisions separately and independently of each other. Recommendations were provided for the selection of a specific project. The study identifies the advantages of this method of project acceptance for investment: objectivity, consistency and transparency. In the future, it is planned to incorporate risks into the decision-making model.The main areas that need improvement were considered, and key ones were selected. The most problematic and urgent is the issue of waste recycling in Kyiv.
This article considers an implementation of a constructive scheme of collective decision-making, which is based on the Bayesian strategy, for the selection of investment projects to solve the socio-economic problem of Kyiv city. The relevance of this study is that in the absence of an objective and transparent system for selecting investment projects and with a limited regional budget, the government should accept only those investment projects that bring the greatest socio-economic benefits. The main ways of state investment in projects aimed at improving socio-economic problems are considered. Among them are the State Fund for Regional Development and the public-private partnership program. It is determined that a significant advantage of public-private partnership over the State Fund for Regional Development is the ability to attract both public funds and private investment. Three projects aimed at solving the problem were selected from the website of the Kyiv Investment Agency, which operates within the framework of a public-private partnership. The financial indicators of their profitability were calculated – NPV (net present value), IRR (internal rate of return) and PI (profitability index). They are based on the concept of incoming and outgoing payments during the period of project execution. It is determined that these indicators do not always give a consistent result, as well as their main drawback – the inability to assess the social component. According to the methodology of collective decision-making by a group of independent experts in terms of the minimum average probability of error, calculations were made to determine the most attractive project. It is noted that all experts make decisions separately and independently of each other. Recommendations were provided for the selection of a specific project. The study identifies the advantages of this method of project acceptance for investment: objectivity, consistency and transparency. In the future, it is planned to incorporate risks into the decision-making model.The main areas that need improvement were considered, and key ones were selected. The most problematic and urgent is the issue of waste recycling in Kyiv. ; This article considers an implementation of a constructive scheme of collective decision-making, which is based on the Bayesian strategy, for the selection of investment projects to solve the socio-economic problem of Kyiv city. The relevance of this study is that in the absence of an objective and transparent system for selecting investment projects and with a limited regional budget, the government should accept only those investment projects that bring the greatest socio-economic benefits. The main ways of state investment in projects aimed at improving socio-economic problems are considered. Among them are the State Fund for Regional Development and the public-private partnership program. It is determined that a significant advantage of public-private partnership over the State Fund for Regional Development is the ability to attract both public funds and private investment. Three projects aimed at solving the problem were selected from the website of the Kyiv Investment Agency, which operates within the framework of a public-private partnership. The financial indicators of their profitability were calculated – NPV (net present value), IRR (internal rate of return) and PI (profitability index). They are based on the concept of incoming and outgoing payments during the period of project execution. It is determined that these indicators do not always give a consistent result, as well as their main drawback – the inability to assess the social component. According to the methodology of collective decision-making by a group of independent experts in terms of the minimum average probability of error, calculations were made to determine the most attractive project. It is noted that all experts make decisions separately and independently of each other. Recommendations were provided for the selection of a specific project. The study identifies the advantages of this method of project acceptance for investment: objectivity, consistency and transparency. In the future, it is planned to incorporate risks into the decision-making model.The main areas that need improvement were considered, and key ones were selected. The most problematic and urgent is the issue of waste recycling in Kyiv.
Reliable tree height-diameter (H-D) allometric equations are a key tool for the estimation of forest productivity and Above Ground Biomass (AGB). Most existing H-D allometric equations developed for the tropical region are based on large-scale multi-species datasets, and their use to derive information on productivity and AGB at the species level is prone to uncertainties. The single-species H-D allometric equations available are mainly focused on monocultures or stands with simple tree species mixtures and did not account for the site effects. Here we measured the height and diameter of 2,288 trees of the emergent tree species Pericopsis elata (Harms) Meeuwen in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and in Cameroon. We first examined how accurate multispecies H-D allometric equations are in predicting the total height of P. elata. We then tested whether single-species H-D allometric equations vary between sites. We developed the first H-D allometric equation of P. elata and tested whether and how stand-level and environmental variables induce changes in H-D allometric relationship of P. elata at the regional level. We additionally evaluated whether tree-level variables are important at the local level where climate and stand development stage are expected to be less variable. We found that pantropical, regional and local H-D allometric equations significantly underestimate the total height of P. elata. The local multi-species H-D allometric equation developed for Yangambi showed the highest underestimation in all the studied sites. This result supports the need for an H-D allometric equation specific for P. elata. The species-level H-D allometric equation developed showed significant underestimations for trees from the disturbed and undisturbed forests in DRC, while overestimations were observed for similar sites in Cameroon. Using a mixed-effect H-D allometric equation, we showed that even within a single species, a substantial variation exists between sites. This variation showed to be driven by the differences in the maximum asymptotic height (Hmax) between sites. We found that P. elata trees are taller and attain higher Hmax in DRC than in Cameroon. The basal area showed to be a significant covariate accounting for the site effects at the regional-scale where climate variables showed minor effects. However, at the local-scale, none of climate or stand variables showed to be significant. Local-scale variation showed to be associated with differences in light availability, highlighting the potential of management options that shape the local environment in driving species productivity. ; Peer reviewed
Trade sector is one sector that should be developed by the local government of Surabaya. Because the trade sector is one of the largest contributors to the Gross Regional Domestic Product (PDRB) of Surabaya. Therefore, it is necessary to explore all the potential that exists in the trade sector. Trade sector can be directed to one of the achievement of development goal that is income increase in Surabaya City. With the increase in income, it is expected eventually will achieve better regional economic growth. The type of data used is quantitative data in the form of numerical calculations that prove the relationship between GDP, Trade Sector, Hotel and Restaurant in Surabaya. There are 4 variables used, namely X1 (trade sub-sector), X2 (hotel sub-sector), X3 (restaurant sub-sector) and Y (PDRB Kota Surabaya). Based on significance value at test f equal to 0,188, mean significance value 0,188> 0,05 then H0 accepted. so it can be concluded that there is a significant influence between independent variables with dependent variable at five percent real level. In the regression coefficient of trade sub-sector (PDRGt) = 1.552 and restaurant sector (RSTNt) = 1.742, the regression model is positive or one-way, that is, if the value of trade sub-sector and restaurant sub-sector is higher or increase, the value of GRDP is also higher or increase also. While the regression coefficient value of hotel sub-sector (HOTt) = -0.436 then regression model is negative or not unidirectional, it means that the increase of one percent added value of hospitality sub-sector does not cause the average increase per year PDRB Surabaya. Keywords: PDRB Kota Surabaya, Trade Sector, Regression Coefficient.
This paper aims to investigate the concept, context and socio-economic consequences of fiscal competition in the integrated economic space of EMU in completion, to pinpoint the positive and negative factors at work via a case study of the Benelux countries – both founder members of the EU and pioneers of EMU – and to examine the impact on European and international regulations in the field. In particular, it will endeavour to provide a comprehensive interpretation of fiscal policy in the Benelux countries via a comparative approach and from a historical perspective. It will look at the development of respective domestic fiscal policies, driven by national interests and by membership of a Community that is subject to requirements in terms of harmonisation and taxation, but also by constant contact (and frequent clashes) with the multilateral international environment.
The idea of hegemony, in its Gramscian sense, contributed to the renewal of several fields of social sciences in the 1970s and 1980s. This idea circulates between different geocultural spaces and different times. The approach adopted in this article starts from the contexts in which this idea is mobilized, in order to show to which theoretical and practical stakes it answers. Focusing on four authors (Antonio Gramsci, Ernesto Laclau, Chantal Mouffe and Pablo Iglesias) and on the transfers from one author to another, the aim is to highlight the social conditions conducive to the deployment of this idea and to identify the (dis)continuities that punctuate its history. Throughout the socio-historical course marked out by the written productions of these four authors, one constant appears: the vitality of the concept of hegemony seems linked to periods of crisis - theoretical and / or strategic - of the left. ; Peer reviewed
L'idée d'hégémonie, dans son acception gramscienne, a contribué au renouvellement de plusieurs pans des sciences sociales au cours des années 1970-1980. Cette idée circule entre différents champs, différents espaces géoculturels et différentes époques. La démarche adoptée dans cet article part des contextes dans lequel cette idée est mobilisée, afin de montrer à quels enjeux théoriques et pratiques elle répond. En se focalisant sur quatre auteurs (Antonio Gramsci, Ernesto Laclau, Chantal Mouffe et Pablo Iglesias) et sur les transferts d'un auteur à l'autre, il s'agit de mettre en exergue les conditions sociales propices au déploiement de cette idée et d'identifier les (dis)continuités qui jalonnent son histoire. A travers le parcours socio-historique jalonné par les productions écrites de ces quatre auteurs, une constante apparaît : la vitalité de l'idée d'hégémonie semble liée à des périodes de crise – théorique et/ou stratégique – de la gauche. ; Peer reviewed
The philosophical and political advantages tied to a break with Marxist thinking have been notable. With such a break with Marxism, economic and scientific determinism have been discounted – and it is in this sort of determinism that a classic critique of Marxism finds a reason for discrediting the Marxist-Leninist project. However, it seems the cost of totally abandoning Marxist thinking has not been sufficiently examined. This article seeks to remedy this with a comparative study of two philosophers' conceptions of conflict: Mouffe's perspective will be examined and compared to Castoriadis' view of radical democracy and its treatment of conflict. The paper seeks to show that a full break with Karl Marx weakens political radicalism. In other words, by opting for a perspective on conflict which fully renounces the Marxist view, Mouffe is doing away with both the idea of direct democracy and/or that of a revolutionary project. Her approach differs from that of Castoriadis who seeks, in some sense, to remain faithful to the emancipatory aspects of Marxian thought. ; Peer reviewed
Chantal Mouffe's is presented as one of the leading theoreticians of the radical left, as a disciple of Carl Schmitt and as a resolute opponent of the liberal tradition. However, according to the her own admission, Chantal Mouffe is more in the "social democratic" camp than in the "radical left" camp, she marks a fundamental difference with regard to Carl Schmitt and she claims her attachment to the liberal ideal. Starting from these discrepancies, this article defends the idea that Chantal Mouffe's thought is perceived as more radical than it really is. Chantal Mouffe intends to reform the liberal tradition rather than denying it. ; Peer reviewed
Insufficiency of water resources in the Middle East Region represents vital factors that influence the stability of the region and its progress. Expectations indicate that the condition will be dimmer and more complicated, especially in Iraqi territory. Iraq, which is situated in the Middle East, it covers an area of 433,970 square kilometers and populated by about 32 million inhabitants. Iraq greatly relies in its water resources on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers as a surface water resources, and several productive groundwater aquifers in which from the hydrogeological point of view divided into several major aquifer units including Foothill, Al-Jazira, Aquifer System, Mandali-Badra-Teeb, Mesopotamian and Desert Aquifer system. Recently, Iraq is suffering from water shortage problems. This is due to external and internal factors affecting the water quality of water resources; they are controlled and uncontrolled factors. The uncontrolled factors are climate change and its consequences, such as reduction of precipitation and temperature increasing. The controlled factors have a significantly negative influence on water resources, but their effects involve more specific regions. The controlled factors are mainly represented by building dams and irrigation projects within the upper parts of the Tigris and Euphrates catchments, Al-Tharthar Scheme, waste water, solid wastes and wastes from wars, which has a significant effect on surface water in Iraq because about 80% of the water supply to Euphrates and Tigris Rivers come from Turkey. In addition, the pressures resulting from the high demand for water resources, and the continued decline in their quantity rates have led to major changes in the hydrological condition in Iraq during the past 30 years. The decrease in surface water levels and precipitation during these three decades reflects the drop in the levels of water reservoirs, lakes, and rivers to the unexpected levels. The level of main country's water source, Tigris, and Euphrates Rivers has fallen to less than a third of its natural levels. As storage capacity depreciates, the government estimates that its water reserves have been reduced precariously. According to the survey from the Ministry of Water Resources, millions of Iraqi people have faced a severe shortage of drinking water. Since of the importance of water for human life and the need to monitor temporal and spatial changes in quality and quantity, there is a need to develop a general Iraqi Water Quality Index (Iraq WQI) to monitor surface water and groundwater and classify it into five categories, very good, good, acceptable, bad and very bad, in terms of suitability for domestics, irrigation and agriculture depending on the Iraqi and WHO standards for drinking water. In addition, strict establishment for the regular quantitative monitoring surface water and groundwater setting and processes. Prospects are more negative for all riparian countries. This implies that solving these problems requires actual and serious international, regional, and national cooperation to set a prudent plan for water resources management of the two basins. Iraq being the most affected country should seriously set a prudent, scientific, and strategic plan for the management and conservation of its water resources. ; Validerad;2020;Nivå 1;2020-11-18 (johcin)
