Suchergebnisse

Studies of second-order elections using aggregate data have predominantly focused on examining the extent to which European parliament elections and regional elections are dominated by the national, first-order arena, and paid scarce attention to the analysis of municipal elections. In addition the study of second-order elections is dominated by looking at the impact of first-order factors whilst ignoring the impact of arena-specific factors. This article addresses these shortcomings by analyzing the impact of national and local factors on the performance of national parties in the Dutch municipal elections of 2010. Our analysis shows that there are significant effects of local factors. Most parties lose votes when having been in local government and in some cases as well when having in addition lost an alderman as a result of a political crisis. Parties also lose vote share as a result of the entrance of new national and local parties in a local election, with the effect of new national entrants being larger than that of new local entrants. Our analysis corroborates earlier findings that point to a dominance of national factors, while at the same time showing that it is vital to include local, arena specific factors in order to get to a better estimation of the second-orderness of non-national elections. We discuss our results with respect to the recurring debate about the nationalisation of the Dutch municipal elections. Adapted from the source document.

An analysis of the Belgium elections of 2007, stating that winning or losing has more to do with the year of comparison than the actual numbers and percentages. The elections for Chamber and Senate were kept separate from regional elections (2006 city council and county council; 2004 European and regional elections). An analysis too of the somewhat peculiar subsequent follow-up on the elections, with an unprecedented long formation-period, and equally unprecedented disputes between Flemish and French-speaking Belgians. Tables, References. O. van Zijl

Together with the city council elections, the citizens of Antwerp elected on 8 October 2006 for the second time their district councils. This new decentralized political level is primarily initiated to restore the confidence of the citizens in the city (and district) government(s). By analyzing the results of the city & the district elections we try to find indications whether citizens feel closer to their new district governments or not. Firstly district elections resulted definitely not in less blank votes. Secondly, the number of list votes is higher on the district elections than on the city elections, while we would have expected a higher number of preferential votes. Thirdly, we see that the differences between the electoral results of the city elections & the district elections are becoming more pronounced. Although this last result seems to support the legitimacy of the decentralized district they merely reflect changes in the logic of the city elections. Mainly as a result of media coverage the city elections were direct elections of the mayor. Therefore voters used the district elections to vote for their preferred political party. This was not always possible at city level, because some parties did not have an eligible candidate for mayor. Generally spoken, we can conclude that the district elections do not give much proof of a closer connection between the citizens & the city government. Tables, Appendixes. Adapted from the source document.

In national elections the results tend to become more 'nationalized': a homogeneous party offer all over the territory, less variation in the results per constituency & more homogeneous electoral swings. This article investigates whether this nationalization can also be witnessed at local elections. It focuses on two indicators: the party offer & the voting behavior. The party offer is the presence of the national parties on the local ballot paper, while the voting behavior looks at patterns of homogeneity across the municipalities. The answer to the question of nationalization is mixed. The Flemish & Walloon local elections display the same long-term trend as the national elections, but they keep their own local character. The heterogeneity of the local party offer clearly demonstrates the local specificity of the local elections, & consequently the voting behavior also differs from the voting behavior at national elections. We also find that the local elections in Wallonia are less nationalized than in Flanders. Although the local character of the local elections remains important, the newer parties -- Ecolo & Groen! -- show until 2000 a clear trend towards nationalization. Especially the extreme right Vlaams Belang shows positive scores on all indicators of nationalization since its first local appearance in 1982. Tables, Figures. Adapted from the source document.

An analysis by all (7) Flemish universities of the 2006 Belgium municipal council elections, using the Mediargus database containing articles from all Flemish newspapers (no journals included). Elections for which Belgium counties had unprecedented authority to organize their local government & local elections, & which were marked by arguments within local political parties, belated legislative changes & belated campaigning. Figures. Adapted from the source document.

Recent trends in election campaigns in Belgium & the Netherlands are compared from both political & historical perspective; it is stressed that primary reference is made to Flanders, & only occasionally to Wallonia, when the political landscape of Belgium is discussed. Developments since the 1960s in both countries are examined, identifying similarities & differences across the following areas: (1) the consociational democracy of Belgium & the Netherlands & its erosion with the formation of new political parties, growing polarization, & negative campaigning, (2) the election system & rules; the structure of parliamentary democracy in the two countries & its reflection in election campaigns; the voter's choices & influence on the composition of both houses of the parliament & the office of prime minister, (3) the content & form of election campaigns; campaign financing, presence in the traditional & new media; free TV time, (4) what is the campaign about & for whom is the vote cast? the principal role played by the party's first candidate on the list, (5) the election rules of the prime minister & new government formation; the role of party leadership. It is concluded that Belgium & the Netherlands still share some characteristics of consensus democracies, however, developments since the 1960s, in particular the growing division between the Flemish & French-speaking regions of Belgium, led to significant institutional changes in the latter country's election campaigns & its citizen's declining interest in this political process on both federal & regional levels. Election campaigns in the Netherlands seem to be more concrete & relevant to the voter. However, both countries suffer from voters' losing direct control over who is elected & over the composition of their future government. Z. Dubiel

Although the 2006 local elections can hardly be described as 'historical,' there is sufficient evidence to distinguish remarkable characteristics associated with this elections. For the first time in decades, turnout has been growing. This evolution can be explained by several factors. This article emphasizes besides the impact of changes in the electoral rules, transformations in demographic structure of the population & the stake of the elections the importance of the media campaign surrounding the elections. However, in spite of this (national) campaigns, there are more than enough indications that local politics keeps its local 'nature.' Secondly, the 2006 elections were the first ones organized after the transfer of the responsibility for municipality legislation from the federal state to the regions. This means that each region designed its own local government architecture & electoral rules. Yet, in practice, the consequences of this transformation seem to be very limited. Thirdly, & particular in the Flemish region, 'strong mayors' arose from the ballot stations (with the Antwerp mayor as the most spectacular case). The consequences of this trend will in the future be the issue of a new debate concerning the relations between council, board of alderman & mayor. Adapted from the source document.

Official results of local elections are especially interesting when collected at the lowest level possible, to enable analyses of voting behavior on the smallest social unit. In Antwerp, together with the city-level results, the voting results for the city districts are public too. Yet, still no possibility exists to review the official results at the neighborhood level. This lack of data makes it difficult to relate specific neighborhood characteristics to voting behavior in those neighborhoods & to compare them. Thus, to collect the data on neighborhood voting behavior, we organized an exit-poll in 18 neighborhoods of seven districts in Antwerp, during the recent county, local & district elections. This article briefly sketches the exit-poll & its organization & presents the main results. These results will be compared with the formal results on district level, & the neighborhoods will be compared to one another. The results are -- as expected -- slightly biased, although in some districts more than in others. Voting behavior in neighborhoods turns out to vary strongly. We try to explain the voting behavior with the help of several neighborhood characteristics, like the proportion of immigrants & unemployed. The analysis confirms some important correlations, but refutes others. Tables. Adapted from the source document.

A symposium paper on elections in Europe.

We analyze the presence of a cost of ruling and/or incumbency advantage in the municipal elections in Flanders of 1988, 1994 & 2000. The empirical work concentrates on vote share evolutions of the three main parties: CD&V, Sp.a & VLD. We find evidence that being in power leads to an incumbency advantage, especially for those parties who provide the mayor. The results indicate that this electoral advantage is not uniform among parties (the socialist party appears to benefit more) and, importantly, the incumbency advantage seems to dampen over successive elections. From the perspective of the local politicians, it is important to keep in mind that this incumbency advantage at the local level was insufficient to compensate for the general trend of the major parties to lose votes at all levels of government. Indeed, even in the 1988 elections -- where a clear local incumbency (mayor) advantage could be identified for each of the three parties -- it was the case that government parties on average lost votes. Tables. Adapted from the source document.