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The claim that the 2008 presidential election was a transformative one is fast becoming part of the conventional wisdom of American politics. Despite the election's undoubted significance, this paper argues that factors affecting voting decisions were strikingly similar to those operating in many previous presidential elections. Using data from the CCAP six-wave national election survey, we demonstrate that a valence politics model provides a powerful, parsimonious explanation of the ballot decisions Americans made in 2008. As is typical in presidential elections, candidate images had major effects on electoral choice. Controlling for several other relevant factors, racial attitudes were strongly associated with how voters reacted to the candidates. Other models of electoral choice, such as a Downsian issue-proximity model, are also relevant, but their explanatory power is considerably less than that provided by the valence politics model. [Copyright Elsevier Ltd.]

Although there is a large literature on the predictive accuracy of pre-election polls, there is virtually no systematic research examining the role that a candidate's gender plays in polling accuracy. This is a surprising omission given the precipitous growth of female candidates in recent years. Looking at Senate and Gubernatorial candidates from 1989 to 2008 (more than 200 elections in over 40 states), we analyze the accuracy of pre-election polls for almost the complete universe of female candidates and a matched sample of white male cases. We demonstrate that pre-election polls consistently underestimate support for female candidates when compared to white male candidates. Furthermore, our results indicate that this phenomenon-which we dub the Richards Effect, after Ann Richards of Texas-is more common in states which exhibit traits associated with culturally conservative views of gender issues. Adapted from the source document.

The claim that the 2008 presidential election was a transformative one is fast becoming part of the conventional wisdom of American politics. Despite the election's undoubted significance, this paper argues that factors affecting voting decisions were strikingly similar to those operating in many previous presidential elections. Using data from the CCAP six-wave national election survey, we demonstrate that a valence politics model provides a powerful, parsimonious explanation of the ballot decisions Americans made in 2008. As is typical in presidential elections, candidate images had major effects on electoral choice. Controlling for several other relevant factors, racial attitudes were strongly associated with how voters reacted to the candidates. Other models of electoral choice, such as a Downsian issue-proximity model, are also relevant, but their explanatory power is considerably less than that provided by the valence politics model. [Copyright Elsevier Ltd.]

The effects of electoral systems have been tested recently in Africa, raising several questions: Are the systematic effects of electoral rules the same across regime types? Does the conduct of elections affect the process of strategic coordination between voters and parties? The literature to date has not considered these issues and also analyzes elections in settings where a crucial set of its assumptions are clearly violated. The authors argue that the mechanism of strategic coordination only operates in democracies that hold free and fair elections, and they exhibit the ways it is violated outside of this domain. They compile a new data set on sub-Saharan African elections and show that the interaction of electoral rules and ethnopolitical cleavages predicts the number of parties only in democratic settings, failing to produce substantive effects in nondemocratic ones. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Inc., copyright 2008.]

Prominente Prognostiker sagen den Grünen für die Bundestagswahl 2002 das Ende ihrer Regierungsbeteiligung oder gar das Scheitern an der Fünf-Prozent-Hürde voraus. Sie stützen sich auf Diagnosen mangelnder Professionalität des kleinen Koalitionspartners (schwache Strategiefähigkeit, Identitätsschwäche, schlechtes Kommunikationsmanagement) und einer Folge von Stimmenverlusten bei Landtagswahlen. Gegen diese Begründungskette sprechen historisch-komparative Argumente: Der grünen "Erfolgsgeschichte" seit Ende der 1970er Jahre läßt sich ein Zusammenhang zwischen diagnostizierter Unprofessionalität und elektoralem Scheitern nicht entnehmen; die Verankerung der Grünen in den Parlamenten und Regierungen der westdeutschen Länder hat sich von derartigen Unkenrufen relativ unbeeindruckt gezeigt. Auch zeigen die Erfahrungen der FDP als kleiner Koalitionspartner im Bund, daß von Niederlagenserien bei Landtagswahlen nicht automatisch auf eine Niederlage bei der folgenden Bundestagswahl geschlossen werden kann. Die Vorhersagen des bevorstehenden Untergangs der Grünen erscheinen deshalb wissenschaftlich leichtfertig. (Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen / FUB)

Contrasts international-balance theory accounts of ticket splitting with an informational explanation of single-election party defection. This informational model suggests that, if partisan voters have relatively high process sophistication -- a capacity to recognize current political leaders & an understanding of their political system -- they are less inclined to vote for the opposition-party candidate. This party voting occurs even when these high-process sophistication, partisan voters are closer to that opposition candidate's issue positions. A logistic regression model of 1988, 1992, & 1996 National Election Study data somewhat supports the informational model of party defection, particularly among highly informed voters in presidential elections. Findings also indicate the importance of incumbency as a determinant of party defection in congressional elections. Political knowledge is an important determinant of party defection. Intentional policy balancing is not supported by the analyses. 3 Tables, 26 References. Adapted from the source document.

Ukraine cannot cover its enormous need for energy with its own resources. The import of expensive fuel from Russia places a burden on the national budget. However, the urgently needed reform of the opaque energy sector did not come about after the Orange Revolution. Unprofitable coalmines must be closed, corruption curtailed, energy consumption reduced & renewable energies promoted. Greater efficiency in the energy sector would also ease the conflict with Russia. Adapted from the source document.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, millions of Russians pulled out of Central Asia & went to Russia. Now the Central Asians are following -- as workers. This migration brings with it opportunities & risks. Russia wins workers, but social instability looms due to a growing xenophobia. The migrants transfer their income back home. This influx of money creates prosperity & stability. But the shrinking of the population is also leading to social dislocations. Adapted from the source document.

Election is the embodiment of popular sovereignty which is the absolute will of the Indonesian people after setting himself as a democratic country. Therefore as part of democratic nations, Indonesia has recognized the sovereignty of the people who affirmed in the Constitution of 1945. To create a healthy degree of competition, participatory, and has a degree higher representation, and have a clear accountability mechanism, then the general election should be implemented in higher quality over time. Implementation of the efforts made in improving quality is to establish and carry out oversight functions election.