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These thirteen papers and accompanying commentaries are the first fruits of an ongoing research project that has concentrated on developing simulation models that incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and businesses to alternative tax rules and rates and on expanding computational general equilibrium models that analyze the long-run effects of changes on the economy as a whole. The principal focus of the project has been on the microsimulation of individual behavior. Thus, this volume includes studies of individual responses to an over reduction in tax rates and to changes in the

These thirteen papers and accompanying commentaries are the first fruits of an ongoing research project that has concentrated on developing simulation models that incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and businesses to alternative tax rules and rates and on expanding computational general equilibrium models that analyze the long-run effects of changes on the economy as a whole. The principal focus of the project has been on the microsimulation of individual behavior. Thus, this volume includes studies of individual responses to an over reduction in tax rates and to changes in the highest tax rates; a study of alternative tax treatments of the family; and studies of such specific aspects of household behavior as tax treatment of home ownership, charitable contributions, and individual saving behavior. Microsimulation techniques are also used to estimate the effects of alternative policies on the long-run financial status of the social security program and to examine the effects of alternative tax rules on corporate investment and of foreign-source income on overseas investment. The papers devoted to the development of general equilibrium simulation models to include an examination of the implications of international trade and capital flows, a study of the effects of capital taxation that uses a closed economy equilibrium model, and an examination of the effect of switching to an inflation-indexed tax system. In the volume's final paper, a life-cycle model in which individuals maximize lifetime utility subject to a lifetime budget constraint is used to simulate the effects of tax rules on personal savings

Purpose of the research is to examine coordination in disaster response by computer simulation using Petri net. We addressed issues on coordination in disaster response by focusing on interorganizational processes. Defining the processes according to disaster exercise, we developed the model based on Stochastic Petri Net. Index items, including average delay time and busyness probability, were introduced to facilitate discussion. Simulation demonstrated utilization of process analysis in performance assessment of collaborative disaster response. Since fragmentation is critical factor hindering efficient response, its remedy or elimination should be focused for system optimization.

Simulation methods are revolutionizing the practice of applied economic analysis. This volume collects eighteen chapters written by leading researchers from prestigious research institutions the world over. The common denominator of the papers is their relevance for applied research in environmental and resource economics. The topics range from discrete choice modeling with heterogeneity of preferences, to Bayesian estimation, to Monte Carlo experiments, to structural estimation of Kuhn-Tucker demand systems, to evaluation of simulation noise in maximum simulated likelihood estimates, to dynamic natural resource modeling. Empirical cases are used to show the practical use and the results brought forth by the different methods.

This case study is about the combined use of interviewing, modeling, and simulation methods in healthcare delivery research. For my PhD, I aimed to understand how a real-time Discrete Event Simulation model could help improve the quality of healthcare and the satisfaction of patients and staff. This was motivated by a previous work I had done building a Discrete Event Simulation model for the Accident and Emergency department of a major National Health Service Trust in London for my MSc dissertation. From that work, it emerged that (a) some of the resources (e.g., specialist consultants) that significantly impacted the performance of the Accident and Emergency department were outside the control of the Accident and Emergency department, and (b) due to the dynamic nature of the Accident and Emergency environment, a model of the system based on historical data, as mine was, can very quickly become outdated because the input data do not reflect what is going on in the real system. These raised a number of questions for me: first, what if the Discrete Event Simulation model receives data from the real system in real-time? Second, what if the results from the real-time model could be appropriately shared with patients and staff about the status of the system? And third, what if we could fast-forward the real-time model and predict how many patients of a particular specialty will need a specialist consultant so that we can inform them ahead of time and therefore cut down the time patients spent waiting? This case, however, focuses on methodology for only one element of the work, the Effective Satisfaction Level.

Abstract. Rainfall–runoff modelling procedures for ungauged and poorly gauged watersheds are developed in this study. A well-established hydrological model, the University of British Columbia (UBC) watershed model, is selected and applied in five different river basins located in Canada, Cyprus, and Pakistan. Catchments from cold, temperate, continental, and semiarid climate zones are included to demonstrate the procedures developed. Two methodologies for streamflow modelling are proposed and analysed. The first method uses the UBC watershed model with a universal set of parameters for water allocation and flow routing, and precipitation gradients estimated from the available annual precipitation data as well as from regional information on the distribution of orographic precipitation. This method is proposed for watersheds without streamflow gauge data and limited meteorological station data. The second hybrid method proposes the coupling of UBC watershed model with artificial neural networks (ANNs) and is intended for use in poorly gauged watersheds which have limited streamflow measurements. The two proposed methods have been applied to five mountainous watersheds with largely varying climatic, physiographic, and hydrological characteristics. The evaluation of the applied methods is based on the combination of graphical results, statistical evaluation metrics, and normalized goodness-of-fit statistics. The results show that the first method satisfactorily simulates the observed hydrograph assuming that the basins are ungauged. When limited streamflow measurements are available, the coupling of ANNs with the regional, non-calibrated UBC flow model components is considered a successful alternative method to the conventional calibration of a hydrological model based on the evaluation criteria employed for streamflow modelling and flood frequency estimation.

A new methodology is presented for the efficient harmonic-balance simulation of injection-locked oscillators with complex multivalued and disconnected curves. It is illustrated through its application to high-order subharmonically injection-locked oscillators. A graphical technique is applied to analyze the oscillator-phase sensitivity with respect to the input signal, required for the injection-locked operation. The intricate synchronized-solution curves are obtained with the new method, which enables a global exploration of all the coexistent periodic solutions. These solutions can belong to different curve sections, in a multivalued response, or to disconnected synchronization curves. The method is based on the calculation of a series of phase-dependent outer-tier admittance functions, which provide the oscillator response to the injection signal. Coexistent solutions are simultaneously obtained through a contour-plot intersection, without the need for continuation techniques. The method is illustrated through application to an oscillator synchronized to low-frequency sinusoidal signal by means of a nonlinear-transmission line. The analysis and design techniques have been successfully validated through comparison with independent simulations and measurements. ; This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness under the research project TEC2014-60283-C3-1-R, the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF/FEDER) and Juan de la Cierva Research Program IJCI-2014-19141 and by the Parliament of Cantabria under the project Cantabria Explora 12.JP02.64069.