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AbstractObservers generally characterize Indonesia's foreign policy as non‐aligned, hedging between the great powers. Indeed, Indonesian noncommittal behavior and seeming disinterest in regional power politics appear at odds for a country of that size. To explain that puzzle, I apply the concept of offshore balancer, traditionally used to describe British and US foreign policy. An offshore balancer is a state separated from continental politics by a body of water. Theory predicts that an offshore balancer will generally avoid continental commitments when the balance of power is stable. However, it will join the power competition fray if a threatening potential hegemon arises. Offshore balancers turn aggressive only if continental states are so weak that crossing the sea and expanding onshore becomes easy. First, I present the concept and its importance and justify its generalizability through a short overview of American, British, and Japanese foreign policies. Second, I review Indonesian history to check whether its behavior corresponds to that of an offshore balancer. Finally, I lay out what offshore balancing implies for understanding Indonesian foreign policy and its future.

In this episode, ASPI's Gatra Priyandita speaks to Thomas Parks from the Asia Foundation about geopolitics in Southeast Asia. While there's a lot of attention on the US–China rivalry and its implications for the region, ...