Problem Venezuele u spoljnoj politici Sjedinjenih Država ; The Venezuela Problem in United States Foreign Policy
Autor se bavi odnosima Sjedinjenih Država i Venezuele zaključno sa aktuelnom predsedničkom krizom ne bi li odgovorio na pitanje kako i zašto je Venezuela postala problem za spoljnu politiku SAD koji zahteva pojačanu pažnju i radikalne mere. Analiza ovih odnosa u toku 20. veka pokazuje da su oni zasnovani na naftnoj međuzavisnosti dveju država. Kada je krajem veka višedecenijsko loše upravljanje naftnim bogatstvom u Venezueli izazvalo društvenu i ekonomsku krizu koja je dovela na vlast Huga Cháveza, spremnog da koristi prihode od nafte protiv interesa regionalne hegemonije SAD, ove su Venezuelu označile kao problem. Američki establišment je prema tom problemu nastupio oportunistički – naftna međuzavisnost je sprečavala da sukob eskalira sve dok aktuelna ekonomsko-politička kriza u Venezueli nakon Chávezove smrti nije dala Washingtonu priliku za konačni obračun sa režimom, po cenu privremenog prekida u trgovini naftom. Godinu i po dana od izbijanja predsednička kriza u Venezueli još nije razrešena, jer se čavistički režim održao, a SAD odustale od vojne intervencije, pa autor nastoji da ukaže na perspektive problema i mogućnosti njegovog prevazilaženja nakon što tekuća pandemija korona virusa bude obuzdana. ; The author deals with the United States and Venezuela relations up to the current presidential crisis, in order to answer how and why Venezuela became a problem for U.S. foreign policy which requires increased attention and radical measures. The analysis of these relations during the 20th century shows that they were based on oil interdependence of the two states. When a decades-long mismanagement of oil riches in Venezuela at the end of the century caused a social and economic crisis that brought to power Hugo Chávez, who was ready to use oil revenues against U.S. regional hegemonic interests, it marked Venezuela as a problem. American establishment treated the problem with opportunism – oil interdependence prevented the conflict from escalating until the current economic and political crisis in Venezuela after the death of Chávez gave Washington an opportunity for the final clash with the regime at the price of a temporary break in the oil trade. A year and a half after the presidential crisis in Venezuela erupted, it has not been resolved yet, for the chavista regime remained in place, while the U.S. gave up on military intervention. The author points to the perspectives of the problem and the possibilities of its overcoming once the current coronavirus pandemic gets contained.