Suchergebnisse

This study presented an econometric model applied to commercial, industrial, household, and transport sectors. We layout two main econometric models: individual time series VEC models and panel VEC models for three targeting models, namely Social-aspects, Economic-aspects, and Technical-aspects. The robustness of the measurement model through Innovation Accounting Approach (IAA), Granger Causality, Long-run, and Short-run Co-integration during 1971-2017 was assessed. On the panel VECM, we identified the positive sign in speed-of-adjustment for the social and economic aspects. Only the technical aspects had a negative sign speed-of-adjustment and significant at 5%. The positive sign showed that the social-aspects and technical-aspects process were not converging in the long run after an experience shocks. Under Time Series VECM, we identified that the models were more stable for all individual sectors than Panel VECM Model. The equation parameters were considered stable since the sum of recursive errors gets inside the two critical lines. Based on LMDI, we found that economic factors were the most significant factors that aggravate the change in energy consumption for the four sectors. On the other hand, technical aspects were the lowest. We saw that the government could impede its energy use over the period by improving the technical aspect. Energy efficiency has been the cornerstone in controlling the rising energy used. Energy efficiency has been the cornerstone in controlling the rising energy used. In the last decade, the negative social aspects in household and industrial sectors signified the decreasing significance of less labor force.

Türkiye'de 1990-2017 yılları arasında fosil ve yenilenebilir kaynaklı elektrik üretiminin, ekonomik büyüme ve çevresel kirlilikle olan ilişkilerinin incelenmesi makalenin amacını oluşturmaktadır. Değişkenler arası ilişkilerin tespiti için Johansen-Juselius (1990) eşbütünleşme testi ile VECM nedensellik analizinin aşamaları takip edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre; i) Değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. ii) Uzun dönemde fosil ve yenilenebilir kaynaklı elektrik üretimleri açısından koruma hipotezinin geçerli olduğu görülmektedir. iii) Karbondioksit salınımındaki artışlar yenilenebilir elektrik üretimini fosil kaynaklı elektrik üretiminden daha fazla arttırmaktadır. iv) Elektrik üretiminde kullanılan kaynakların ikame ilişkisine göre fosil kaynaklı elektrik üretimindeki artışlar yenilenebilir elektrik üretimini daha fazla azaltmaktadır. Sonuç olarak kaynağına göre elektrik üretimi üzerinde ekonomik büyümenin, çevresel tepkilerin ve kaynakların ikame derecesinin etkili olduğu görülmektedir. Çevre kalitesinin sağlanması açısından etkenlerin birbirleriyle olan etkileşimlerine dikkat etmek gerekmektedir.

The objective of this study is to examine the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in Algeria using the econometric modelling techniques of cointegration and vector error correction modelling to analyse and draw policy inferences. The chosen variables of fiscal policy are government expenditure and net taxes on products, while the effect of monetary policy is presented by the inflation rate and the official exchange rate. From the results, we find that in the long-run, the impact of government expenditures is positive, while the effect of taxes is negative on growth. Additionally, we find that the inflation rate is found to have little effect on GDP per capita but the impact of the exchange rate is insignificant. We conclude that fiscal policy is more powerful then monetary policy in promoting economic growth in Algeria.

This research investigates the relationship between energy consumption (ENE), trade openness (TI) and economic growth (GDP) in the case of Turkey in the period 1970-2015. VECM is employed. The results suggest a long-run causality which is inferred from the statistically significant error term with GDP and ENE. However, short-run coefficients are not found to be significant in the case of GDP and TI equation. Moreover, the findings suggest that a percentage change in ENE will result in a 1.35% increase in real GDP per capita. While for TI, a percentage change in this variable will result in 0.13% decrease in GDP in the long-run. Hence, real GDP per capita is elastic to the change in energy consumption but inelastic to the change in TI. This paper summarizes in detail the policy implications and the recommendations for future research. At last, the diagnostic tests advocate the stability of the model. ; Bu araştırma, Türkiye'de enerji tüketimi (ENE), ticari dışa açıklık (TI) ve ekonomik büyüme (GDP) arasındaki ilişkiyi 1970-2015 dönemi için incelemektedir. VECM uygulaması yapılmıştır. Sonuçlar, istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir hata döneminden çıkarılan GDP ve ENE ile uzun süreli bir nedensellik göstermektedir. Ancak, kısa dönemli katsayılar GDP ve TI denklemi açısından anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Ayrıca, bulgular ENE'deki yüzde değişimin kişi başına düşen GDP'de % 1.35'lik bir artışa yol açacağını göstermektedir. TI için, bu değişkendeki yüzde değişim, uzun vadede GDP'de % 0.13 düşüşe neden olacaktır. Dolayısıyla, kişi başına düşen GDP, enerji tüketimindeki değişime karşı esnek olmakla birlikte, TI'daki değişime karşı esnek değildir. Bu çalışma gelecekteki araştırmalar için politika sonuçlarını ve önerileri detaylı olarak özetlemektedir. Sonuç olarak teşhis testleri modelin istikrarını desteklemektedir.

Tax compliance is an important indicator for the proper functioning of the tax authority, influencing the budget revenue level. In this study, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis was developed to identify the long-term relationships between the compliance in individual income taxation (taxpayer's behavior), public trust in politicians (trust in authorities), and rule of law (power of the authorities), using unbalanced panel data for the European Union (EU28) during the 2007–2017 period. The results underline the causality of the long-run relationships between the variables. The results of the VECM analysis underline the need for various support measures for voluntary tax compliance, with the trust variable having an important impact on tax compliance. In addition, a Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analysis was employed using an improved data set with variables such as the compliance in corporation taxation (taxpayer's behavior), wastefulness of government spending, and quality of the education system. The results of the SEM analysis underline the positive and significant influences of the variables on tax compliance.

Abstract. This study evaluates the determinants of bank credit to the private sector in Albania from 2000 to 2017 using a Vector Error Correction Model which includes both demand and supply-side factors. We perform Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Phillips-Perron test and Johansen cointegration test to ensure the stationarity and long-run relation between explanatory variables. The results show that credit to the private sector is positively related to economic growth. A higher lending rate will decrease the bank credit to the private sector. Further, the decrease of non-performing loans and domestic government debt will increase the funds available for the private sector. The negative sign of error correction term and the diagnostic tests for autocorrelation, normality and ARCH effects ensure that our model is properly defined.Keywords. Bank credit , Vector error eorrection, Albania.JEL. C32, C53, E44, G21.

AbstractThe paper estimates the money demand in Croatia using monthly data from 1994 to 2002. A failure of the Fisher equation is found, and adjustment to the standard money‐demand function is made to include the inflation rate as well as the nominal interest rate. In a two‐equation cointegrated system, a stable money demand shows rapid convergence back to equilibrium after shocks. This function performs better than an alternative using the exchange rate instead of the inflation rate as in the 'pass‐through' literature on exchange rates. The results provide a basis for inflation rate forecasting and suggest the ability to use inflation targeting goals in transition countries during the EU accession process. Finding a stable money demand also limits the scope for central bank 'inflation bias'.